Start Sit Made Easier: Ten Worst Pass Defenses

Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
32	Detroit	298	CLE	Start Mohamed Massaquoi
31	Indianapolis	282.3	@BAL	Start Derrick Mason
30	San Francisco	273	@GB	Start Greg Jennings
29	Cincinnati	263	@OAK	Start Darius Heyward Bey?
28	Carolina	260	MIA	Start Devone Bess?
27	Seattle	258.3	@MIN	Start Sydney Rice
26	Buffalo	257.3	@JAX	Start Mike Sims-Walker
25	New Orleans	254.3	@TB	Start Antonio Bryant
24	Miami	250.7	@CAR	Start Steve Smith
23	Arizona	246.7	@STL	Start Donnie Avery

Start Sit Made Easier: Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers

Carolina Panther WR Steve Smith injured his ribs on Sunday. Coming off a short week, one must start him against the big play allowing secodnary of the Miami Dolphins - if reports say he will play.

From Stephania Bell on Tuesday:
"...suffered bruised ribs after taking a hit in the back when he made his second end zone grab Sunday. While it is still early in the week, there is no hint from the team yet that his Week 11 status is in jeopardy."

Rush Rank	Team	RYA	Vs	Decision	Pass Rank	PYA	Decision
18	Miami	119.3	@CAR	Start DeAngelo Williams	24	250.7	Start Steve Smith
16	Carolina	118	MIA	Start Ricky Williams	28	260	Start Devone Bess?

Start Sit Made Easier: Top 10 Run Defenses

Rush Rank	Team	RYA	Vs	Decision
1	Pittsburgh	59	@KC	Sit Jamaal Charles
1	Cincinnati	59	@OAK	Sit Justin Fargas
3	Houston	76	TEN	Sit Chris Johnson
4	San Diego	81.3	@DEN	Sit Knowshon Moreno
5	Green Bay	84.3	SF	Sit Frank Gore
6	San Francisco	85.3	@GB	Sit Ryan Grant
7	Dallas	91	WAS	Sit Ladell Betts
8	NY Giants	95.3	ATL	Sit Jason Snelling
9	Minnesota	96.3	SEA	Sit Justin Forsett
10	Baltimore	99.3	IND	Sit Joseph Addai_Donald Brown

Fantasy Baseball Who would You Rather Have?

Same salary. Nick Swisher, Nolan Reimold or Garret Jones

Start Sit Made Easier: The Top 10 Pass Defenses

Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
1	NY Jets	134.7	@NE	Sit Randy Moss_Wes Welker
2	Baltimore	143.7	IND	Sit Reggie Wayne
3	Chicago	145.3	PHI	Sit DeSean Jackson
4	Washington	150	@DAL	Sit Miles Austin_Roy Williams
5	Tennessee	190	@HOU	Sit Andre Johnson
6	Jacksonville	192.7	BUF	Sit Lee Evans?
7	Oakland	194.3	CIN	Sit Chad OchoCinco
7	Denver	194.3	SD	Sit Vincent Jackson
9	Cleveland	199	@DET	Sit Calvin Johnson
10	Kansas City	203.7	PIT	Sit Hines Ward

Fantasy Baseball 2010: Now Or Later

Do you over emphasise future production over current production in keeper leagues? Most serious players in that format do.

The alpha opportunity is to deal future value for current production A real life example from one of my leagues. A $23 Andre Ethier was dealt for three highly regarded prospects, none of which will out produce Ethier in 2010.

2010 Fantasy Football Draft: Top 4

1. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
2. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens

On Wall Street, there is an adage that says no portfolio manager gets fired for buying IBM. (Maybe Google in the 21st century?) In fantasy football, anyone can place Adrian Peterson a #1 and expect no criticism.

What the three non-AD RBs need to do is finish the season healthy, and no one will cry landing the 1st through 4th picks in 2010 drafts.

Week Eleven Waiver Wire Pick Ups

With the bye weeks finished and just three weeks until the fantasy football play-offs begin, the team you have is as strong as it can be at this point. As a result, adding players via the waiver wire will be more all-or-nothing than looking for 5-10 points of fill-in performance.

With that in mind, three players emerged on Sunday who can become Flex/WR2/RB2 type of players. Two are likely rostered and the third has appeared in this column previously.

1. WR Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams: With QB Marc Bulger looking healthy, Donnie Avery could become the 5th round sleeper so many thought he would be. Expected production of 6/75/1 is possible every week.

2. RB Jason Snelling, Atlanta Falcons: By far the most interesting pick-up. With receiving capability, Snelling offers more than Michael Turner did in PPR formats. A max free agent bid for those teams whose fantasy season rides on high risk gambles hitting must do so on Snelling. 100 total yards and a TD is not outrageous.

3. RB Justin Forsett, Seattle Seahawks: If Julius Jones kept Forsett on the waiver wire, then that no longer exists after his 100+ yards rushing performance. Solid RB2 should be expected.

Week Nine Start Sit

RB Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles: If he is active, one cannot be faulted for sitting him. If I had a better option, I'd sit Westbrook anyways.

RB Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs: Wow. Worse decision: Jamaal Charles or a Washington Redskins' RB not-named Ladell Betts? Mike Sellers or Jamaal Charles? I'd sit him barring a nightmare situation at RB.

WR Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals: If he is active, expect the Cardinals to try and get him the ball. Like Westbrook, though, I'd sit him if I had a better option.

RB Ladell Betts, Washington Redskins: Can he really sit out given the chance to play following Clinton Portis' concussion?

WR Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions: Many a fantasy team sees their season circling the bowl thanks to the immensely disappointing season of Johnson. Unlike Westbrook and Boldin, there doesn't appear to be recent injury news to cause concern.

Start Sit: DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart

Stephani Bell: Getting relief from the bye week - ESPN: "Williams, however, injured his knee (no specifics; coach John Fox referred to it earlier in the week as a 'tweak') last Sunday. After not practicing Wednesday, Stewart returned to limited practice Thursday but then was unable to practice Friday. Regular readers of this blog know that I am very suspicious when a player is unable to practice after initially returning to practice post-injury. Williams is now a game-time decision. This may be a week in which Stewart sees increased action, even if Williams is ultimately active."

The switch in pronouns makes it seem as if it is Jonathan Stewart Ms. Bell talks about, The final sentence says Williams. Other reports support the Williams angle.

One has little choice but to start an active Williams and hope this knee injury is nothing. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jonathan Stewart have a heavier day in terms of touches though. I'd start Stewart as my Flex - at a minimum.

Fantasy Baseball Drafting Strategy For OF Position Scarcity

In my 1st 2010 fantasy baseball mock draft, I drafted a team of players whose track record is limited to a season or two of top production - SS Troy Tulowitzki in the 2nd, 2B/OF Ben Zobrist in the 4th and Pablo Sandoval in the 5th. In between I sprinkled in established veterans - 3B Alex Rodriguez in the 1st, Brian McCann in the 3rd and 1B Derrek Lee in the 8th - and veterans with injury concerns - OF Carlos Beltran in the 6th and SP Chris Carpenter in the 7th.

What stuck out to me was the relative lack of OF production. "OF production" means a general lack of established producers in the 30/100/.300 area. This is often conveyed by the fantasy expert community as representative of position scarcity.

The question is how to draft a team around the premise of scarce OF talent. The strategy is to build a strong infield around players whose expected production exceeds its peers by more than the expected production of the lower tiers of outfielders whose efforts won't trail too far behind their peers. The difference between the expected production of C Brian McCann and a 15th round catcher is greater than the difference between a 3rd/4th round Nick Markakis and 16th round Franklyn Guitierrez.

Call it higher volatility amongst the infield positions versus lower volatility in the outfield.

Start Sit: Clinton Portis

From Will Carroll's Black & Blue Report at Football Outsiders:

"Clinton Portis had a bad concussion. Jim Zorn said he was knocked out and after the game, Portis had no memory of the incident. Right there, at best, Portis is looking at a Grade II concussion, though the time of unconsciousness isn't always the best indicator of how severe the concussion is. As Dr. Jorge Cantu, one of the leading experts in the field, explained to me earlier this year, the only way to grade a concussion is after all the symptoms have cleared. (Cantu should know -- the grading scale is named the Cantu scale because he invented it.) Portis will undergo ImPACT testing and other medical tests to help determine when he'll be back. We'll have to watch to see if he's exhibiting any symptoms at the end of the week, but it's very unlikely that he'll play this weekend, leaving the carries to Ladell Betts."

The strikethrough is mine. I have no idea what the Redskins will do at RB, but there is little reason your fantasy team should be dependent on that pie-in-the-sky gamble.