Friday, November 20, 2009

Start Sit Made Easier: Ten Worst Pass Defenses

Pass RankTeamPYAVsDecision
32Detroit298CLEStart Mohamed Massaquoi
31Indianapolis282.3@BALStart Derrick Mason
30San Francisco273@GBStart Greg Jennings
29Cincinnati263@OAKStart Darius Heyward Bey?
28Carolina260MIAStart Devone Bess?
27Seattle258.3@MINStart Sydney Rice
26Buffalo257.3@JAXStart Mike Sims-Walker
25New Orleans254.3@TBStart Antonio Bryant
24Miami250.7@CARStart Steve Smith
23Arizona246.7@STLStart Donnie Avery

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Start Sit Made Easier: Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers

Carolina Panther WR Steve Smith injured his ribs on Sunday. Coming off a short week, one must start him against the big play allowing secodnary of the Miami Dolphins - if reports say he will play.

From Stephania Bell on Tuesday:
"...suffered bruised ribs after taking a hit in the back when he made his second end zone grab Sunday. While it is still early in the week, there is no hint from the team yet that his Week 11 status is in jeopardy."

Rush RankTeamRYAVsDecisionPass RankPYADecision
18Miami119.3@CARStart DeAngelo Williams24250.7Start Steve Smith
16Carolina118MIAStart Ricky Williams28260Start Devone Bess?

Start Sit Made Easier: Top 10 Run Defenses

Rush RankTeamRYAVsDecision
1Pittsburgh59@KCSit Jamaal Charles
1Cincinnati59@OAKSit Justin Fargas
3Houston76TENSit Chris Johnson
4San Diego81.3@DENSit Knowshon Moreno
5Green Bay84.3SFSit Frank Gore
6San Francisco85.3@GBSit Ryan Grant
7Dallas91WASSit Ladell Betts
8NY Giants95.3ATLSit Jason Snelling
9Minnesota96.3SEASit Justin Forsett
10Baltimore99.3INDSit Joseph Addai_Donald Brown

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Who would You Rather Have?

Same salary. Nick Swisher, Nolan Reimold or Garret Jones

Start Sit Made Easier: The Top 10 Pass Defenses

Pass RankTeamPYAVsDecision
1NY Jets134.7@NESit Randy Moss_Wes Welker
2Baltimore143.7INDSit Reggie Wayne
3Chicago145.3PHISit DeSean Jackson
4Washington150@DALSit Miles Austin_Roy Williams
5Tennessee190@HOUSit Andre Johnson
6Jacksonville192.7BUFSit Lee Evans?
7Oakland194.3CINSit Chad OchoCinco
7Denver194.3SDSit Vincent Jackson
9Cleveland199@DETSit Calvin Johnson
10Kansas City203.7PITSit Hines Ward

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Fantasy Baseball 2010: Now Or Later

Do you over emphasise future production over current production in keeper leagues? Most serious players in that format do.

The alpha opportunity is to deal future value for current production A real life example from one of my leagues. A $23 Andre Ethier was dealt for three highly regarded prospects, none of which will out produce Ethier in 2010.

2010 Fantasy Football Draft: Top 4

1. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
2. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens

On Wall Street, there is an adage that says no portfolio manager gets fired for buying IBM. (Maybe Google in the 21st century?) In fantasy football, anyone can place Adrian Peterson a #1 and expect no criticism.

What the three non-AD RBs need to do is finish the season healthy, and no one will cry landing the 1st through 4th picks in 2010 drafts.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Week Eleven Waiver Wire Pick Ups

With the bye weeks finished and just three weeks until the fantasy football play-offs begin, the team you have is as strong as it can be at this point. As a result, adding players via the waiver wire will be more all-or-nothing than looking for 5-10 points of fill-in performance.

With that in mind, three players emerged on Sunday who can become Flex/WR2/RB2 type of players. Two are likely rostered and the third has appeared in this column previously.

1. WR Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams: With QB Marc Bulger looking healthy, Donnie Avery could become the 5th round sleeper so many thought he would be. Expected production of 6/75/1 is possible every week.

2. RB Jason Snelling, Atlanta Falcons: By far the most interesting pick-up. With receiving capability, Snelling offers more than Michael Turner did in PPR formats. A max free agent bid for those teams whose fantasy season rides on high risk gambles hitting must do so on Snelling. 100 total yards and a TD is not outrageous.

3. RB Justin Forsett, Seattle Seahawks: If Julius Jones kept Forsett on the waiver wire, then that no longer exists after his 100+ yards rushing performance. Solid RB2 should be expected.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Week Nine Start Sit

RB Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles: If he is active, one cannot be faulted for sitting him. If I had a better option, I'd sit Westbrook anyways.

RB Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs: Wow. Worse decision: Jamaal Charles or a Washington Redskins' RB not-named Ladell Betts? Mike Sellers or Jamaal Charles? I'd sit him barring a nightmare situation at RB.

WR Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals: If he is active, expect the Cardinals to try and get him the ball. Like Westbrook, though, I'd sit him if I had a better option.

RB Ladell Betts, Washington Redskins: Can he really sit out given the chance to play following Clinton Portis' concussion?

WR Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions: Many a fantasy team sees their season circling the bowl thanks to the immensely disappointing season of Johnson. Unlike Westbrook and Boldin, there doesn't appear to be recent injury news to cause concern.

Start Sit: DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart

Stephani Bell: Getting relief from the bye week - ESPN: "Williams, however, injured his knee (no specifics; coach John Fox referred to it earlier in the week as a 'tweak') last Sunday. After not practicing Wednesday, Stewart returned to limited practice Thursday but then was unable to practice Friday. Regular readers of this blog know that I am very suspicious when a player is unable to practice after initially returning to practice post-injury. Williams is now a game-time decision. This may be a week in which Stewart sees increased action, even if Williams is ultimately active."

The switch in pronouns makes it seem as if it is Jonathan Stewart Ms. Bell talks about, The final sentence says Williams. Other reports support the Williams angle.

One has little choice but to start an active Williams and hope this knee injury is nothing. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jonathan Stewart have a heavier day in terms of touches though. I'd start Stewart as my Flex - at a minimum.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Drafting Strategy For OF Position Scarcity

In my 1st 2010 fantasy baseball mock draft, I drafted a team of players whose track record is limited to a season or two of top production - SS Troy Tulowitzki in the 2nd, 2B/OF Ben Zobrist in the 4th and Pablo Sandoval in the 5th. In between I sprinkled in established veterans - 3B Alex Rodriguez in the 1st, Brian McCann in the 3rd and 1B Derrek Lee in the 8th - and veterans with injury concerns - OF Carlos Beltran in the 6th and SP Chris Carpenter in the 7th.

What stuck out to me was the relative lack of OF production. "OF production" means a general lack of established producers in the 30/100/.300 area. This is often conveyed by the fantasy expert community as representative of position scarcity.

The question is how to draft a team around the premise of scarce OF talent. The strategy is to build a strong infield around players whose expected production exceeds its peers by more than the expected production of the lower tiers of outfielders whose efforts won't trail too far behind their peers. The difference between the expected production of C Brian McCann and a 15th round catcher is greater than the difference between a 3rd/4th round Nick Markakis and 16th round Franklyn Guitierrez.

Call it higher volatility amongst the infield positions versus lower volatility in the outfield.

Start Sit: Clinton Portis

From Will Carroll's Black & Blue Report at Football Outsiders:

"Clinton Portis had a bad concussion. Jim Zorn said he was knocked out and after the game, Portis had no memory of the incident. Right there, at best, Portis is looking at a Grade II concussion, though the time of unconsciousness isn't always the best indicator of how severe the concussion is. As Dr. Jorge Cantu, one of the leading experts in the field, explained to me earlier this year, the only way to grade a concussion is after all the symptoms have cleared. (Cantu should know -- the grading scale is named the Cantu scale because he invented it.) Portis will undergo ImPACT testing and other medical tests to help determine when he'll be back. We'll have to watch to see if he's exhibiting any symptoms at the end of the week, but it's very unlikely that he'll play this weekend, leaving the carries to Ladell Betts."

The strikethrough is mine. I have no idea what the Redskins will do at RB, but there is little reason your fantasy team should be dependent on that pie-in-the-sky gamble.