With the recall of Stephen Strasburg iminent, interest in acquiring him should skyrocket. There a many factors involved in properly valuing him. The biggest one is what his expected performance is, but there are others that are actually known with certainty.
Are you in a keeper league? What categories count? Is there an innings limit? IF you answer "Yes, "Ks" and "Yes", Strasburg's trade value increases over his trade value in 2010.
While expected performance is unknowable, there is another unmeasurable but relevent factor to consider. Should his owners expect a premium for the lost opportunity cost of holding Strasburg for two months in a reserve slot?
My answer is "Yes" but good luck realizing that cost is you have had Strasburg occupied 33% of your reserve spots for the past two months.
Monday, May 31, 2010
John Ely Impressing
John Ely Impressing | FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball:
"True to the scouting reports, Ely isn’t lighting up radar guns — his fastball is averaging 87.9 MPH. However, he’s not using the pitch much (about 32 percent), and when he does, he gets strikes (70.1 percent, 64.4% MLB average). Ely’s bread-and-butter is his changeup. According to Pitch F/X data from texasleaguers.com, he has pulled the string about 41 percent of the time."
FWIW, Ely was ranked in the 8-11 range as a White Sox prospect.
"True to the scouting reports, Ely isn’t lighting up radar guns — his fastball is averaging 87.9 MPH. However, he’s not using the pitch much (about 32 percent), and when he does, he gets strikes (70.1 percent, 64.4% MLB average). Ely’s bread-and-butter is his changeup. According to Pitch F/X data from texasleaguers.com, he has pulled the string about 41 percent of the time."
FWIW, Ely was ranked in the 8-11 range as a White Sox prospect.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
MLB Trade Rumors: New York Yankees & Cliff Lee
Yankees likely will make run at Lee — in offseason - NYPOST.com:
"But having their eyes on Lee does not mean the Yankees will be at the forefront of the derby come July 31. Consider these reasons:"
Why trade prospects for Lee when you can overwhelm in in free agency and keep the picks? Of course, this assumes a fully healthy rotation. If CC, Burnett or Hughes is lost for the season, all bets are off.
With the Yankees' depth at catcher, the team has the marquee prospect that the Seattle organization needs.
"But having their eyes on Lee does not mean the Yankees will be at the forefront of the derby come July 31. Consider these reasons:"
Why trade prospects for Lee when you can overwhelm in in free agency and keep the picks? Of course, this assumes a fully healthy rotation. If CC, Burnett or Hughes is lost for the season, all bets are off.
With the Yankees' depth at catcher, the team has the marquee prospect that the Seattle organization needs.
MLB Trade Rumors: Roy Oswalt to AL?
MLB - On Roy Halladay's perfect game and Buster Posey's imperfect call-up - ESPN:
"The three teams that might be the best fit on paper to get Oswalt: the Twins, the Tigers, the Angels. And the reason why the Tigers might make the most sense is that they're more willing than other teams to spend money -- and the question of how much other teams are willing to absorb Oswalt's remaining salary could be the deciding factor in any trade talks with Houston."
1st, I have serious doubts the Astros will trade Oswalt due to his marquee value as an Astro and that pesky no-trade clause and option for 2012. That said, I don't see the Angels as contenders given Kenry Morales' broken ankle the org's lack of an obvious replacement at 1B.
"The three teams that might be the best fit on paper to get Oswalt: the Twins, the Tigers, the Angels. And the reason why the Tigers might make the most sense is that they're more willing than other teams to spend money -- and the question of how much other teams are willing to absorb Oswalt's remaining salary could be the deciding factor in any trade talks with Houston."
1st, I have serious doubts the Astros will trade Oswalt due to his marquee value as an Astro and that pesky no-trade clause and option for 2012. That said, I don't see the Angels as contenders given Kenry Morales' broken ankle the org's lack of an obvious replacement at 1B.
MLB Trade Rumors: Atlanta Braves
Chat: Chat with Jayson Stark - SportsNation - ESPN:
"J.B. (Dunmore, PA) Oswalt has mentioned the Braves as a team he's accept as his new employer. Is there any possible deal the Braves could work out that the Astros would accept and that would free up the salary budget necessary for the Braves to pull the trigger on a deal?
Jayson Stark (1:25 PM) I dealt with this topic in Rumblings and Grumblings, too. Talked to Frank Wren this week. And while he wouldn't discuss Oswalt specifically, or any specific deal, he said the Braves wouldn't be involved in any deal for a starting pitcher. He said they need to use their bullets on their areas of need, and those areas can be summed up in one word best I can tell: 'Offense.'"
"J.B. (Dunmore, PA) Oswalt has mentioned the Braves as a team he's accept as his new employer. Is there any possible deal the Braves could work out that the Astros would accept and that would free up the salary budget necessary for the Braves to pull the trigger on a deal?
Jayson Stark (1:25 PM) I dealt with this topic in Rumblings and Grumblings, too. Talked to Frank Wren this week. And while he wouldn't discuss Oswalt specifically, or any specific deal, he said the Braves wouldn't be involved in any deal for a starting pitcher. He said they need to use their bullets on their areas of need, and those areas can be summed up in one word best I can tell: 'Offense.'"
Grey on Casey McGehee
Casey McGehee's emergence can be traced back to hitting adjustments he made in 2008 - ESPN:
"Even if you think you have a player figured out, they can still change things and make themselves a different player. That's what McGehee did, and why I should have changed my opinion on him. He's legit, and should continue to be. And I should have seen it sooner"
But would you trade for him if the other team was asking 5th round value?
"Even if you think you have a player figured out, they can still change things and make themselves a different player. That's what McGehee did, and why I should have changed my opinion on him. He's legit, and should continue to be. And I should have seen it sooner"
But would you trade for him if the other team was asking 5th round value?
The Buck Stops Here
BaseballAmerica.com: Prospects: Prospect Hot Sheet: Prospect Hot Sheet: May 28:
"Arencibia's power will play anywhere. He has smacked seven home runs through 38 games this season, including two in two games at Round Rock the past two days. In addition to the homers, Arencibia went a robust 6-for-10 with four doubles. But for a catcher with terrific power—he has crushed 21 and 27 bombs in the past two seasons—his downside is steep, as illustrated above by a lower on-base percentage than batting average. But if you're looking for signs of improvement, there's this: Arencibia is on pace to shatter his previous high for walks in a season (26), and his .313 on-base percentage would be his highest since his Florida State League days."
"Arencibia's power will play anywhere. He has smacked seven home runs through 38 games this season, including two in two games at Round Rock the past two days. In addition to the homers, Arencibia went a robust 6-for-10 with four doubles. But for a catcher with terrific power—he has crushed 21 and 27 bombs in the past two seasons—his downside is steep, as illustrated above by a lower on-base percentage than batting average. But if you're looking for signs of improvement, there's this: Arencibia is on pace to shatter his previous high for walks in a season (26), and his .313 on-base percentage would be his highest since his Florida State League days."
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Let The Clamoring Begin!
Tyler Colvin » Splits » 2010 » Batting | FanGraphs Baseball
Cubs rookie Tyler Colvin hit his 5th HR and now sports an AVG nearing .333. Whilst the call for more ABs rises, keep in mind this was mainly done against right-handed pitching. A mere 3-14 with none of his 5 HRs against lefties.
Cubs rookie Tyler Colvin hit his 5th HR and now sports an AVG nearing .333. Whilst the call for more ABs rises, keep in mind this was mainly done against right-handed pitching. A mere 3-14 with none of his 5 HRs against lefties.
Do You Believe?
Bud Norris’ 2010 Season | FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball: "Norris has whiffed 11.13 batters per nine innings this season, second-highest among starting pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched"
That is a skill and a half. Bud Norris is a closer in waiting
That is a skill and a half. Bud Norris is a closer in waiting
How To Spot Closers
Baltimore Orioles lose to Oakland Athletics, 7-5 - baltimoresun.com:
"Reliever Cla Meredith entered and immediately served up a back-breaking three-run double to Kevin Kouzmanoff that gave the A's a lead they didn't hand back."
8th inning and Meredith fails. Wil Ohman's grip on Orioles' closer role tightens.
"Reliever Cla Meredith entered and immediately served up a back-breaking three-run double to Kevin Kouzmanoff that gave the A's a lead they didn't hand back."
8th inning and Meredith fails. Wil Ohman's grip on Orioles' closer role tightens.
AL- & NL-Only: Hold Your Fire!
Chat: Chat with Keith Law - SportsNation - ESPN:
"Brigg (Worcester, PA) Do you think we'll see a string of call-ups over the next week or two now that the Super-2 deadline has passed?
Klaw (12:13 PM) There's no fixed deadline, so I'm not sure what has 'passed.' I do think that between June 1st and 15th you'll see a bunch of these guys come up."
"Brigg (Worcester, PA) Do you think we'll see a string of call-ups over the next week or two now that the Super-2 deadline has passed?
Klaw (12:13 PM) There's no fixed deadline, so I'm not sure what has 'passed.' I do think that between June 1st and 15th you'll see a bunch of these guys come up."
Friday, May 28, 2010
MLB Trade Rumors: New York Yankees Hitter?
Chat: Chat with Jayson Stark - SportsNation - ESPN:
"Jason (NY) Do you think Yanks need to go out and acquire a bat? If so, who? I understand that Arod and Tex will come around, but their bench does look mighty thin.
Jayson Stark (1:29 PM) I don't see the Yankees chasing a big bat -- and there might not be one on the market to chase, incidentally. I see them looking for an outfield bat who could plug into the No. 2 hole if it looks as if Nick Johnson isn't coming back. The name I tossed out there in Rumblings this week was David DeJesus. Someone like that."
"Jason (NY) Do you think Yanks need to go out and acquire a bat? If so, who? I understand that Arod and Tex will come around, but their bench does look mighty thin.
Jayson Stark (1:29 PM) I don't see the Yankees chasing a big bat -- and there might not be one on the market to chase, incidentally. I see them looking for an outfield bat who could plug into the No. 2 hole if it looks as if Nick Johnson isn't coming back. The name I tossed out there in Rumblings this week was David DeJesus. Someone like that."
MLB Trade Rumors: New York Mets
Vladimir Guerrero of Texas Rangers is more than a pale imitation of the old Vlad: He's the Impaler once more - Buster Olney - ESPN:
"The Mets are within two games of first place, and what's great for them, going forward, is that the trade market is shaping up nicely for them. There will be lots of starting pitching available, whether it's Roy Oswalt or (perhaps) Cliff Lee or Ben Sheets or Jake Westbrook or Fausto Carmona or Kevin Millwood or Ted Lilly -- and so it'll be a buyers' market as the Mets look for a pitcher"
"The Mets are within two games of first place, and what's great for them, going forward, is that the trade market is shaping up nicely for them. There will be lots of starting pitching available, whether it's Roy Oswalt or (perhaps) Cliff Lee or Ben Sheets or Jake Westbrook or Fausto Carmona or Kevin Millwood or Ted Lilly -- and so it'll be a buyers' market as the Mets look for a pitcher"
Jeter's defense on the decline
Jeter's defense on the decline - Yankees Blog - ESPN New York:
"Basically, what this means is that Jeter has made seven fewer plays than the average shortstop would have made, on balls hit to the left of where a shortstop would play. Or in simpler terms, Jeter is missing out on some balls that are ending up as base hits to center field.
That's shows signs of decline from the previous two seasons in which Jeter was rated -1 (2008) and +2 (2009)."
Repeat after me. "Just because you have found a way to measure something doesn't mean it has a predictive quality."
Or more simply, "Defensive metrics are useless."
"Basically, what this means is that Jeter has made seven fewer plays than the average shortstop would have made, on balls hit to the left of where a shortstop would play. Or in simpler terms, Jeter is missing out on some balls that are ending up as base hits to center field.
That's shows signs of decline from the previous two seasons in which Jeter was rated -1 (2008) and +2 (2009)."
Repeat after me. "Just because you have found a way to measure something doesn't mean it has a predictive quality."
Or more simply, "Defensive metrics are useless."
Clamoring For ABs
Bronson Arroyo, Reds bullpen shut out Pirates | cincinnati.com | Cincinnati.Com: "Chris Heisey's pinch-hit homer in the eighth off Brendan Donnelly made it 4-0. The Reds have four pinch-hit homers, two by Heisey"
Chris Heisey has been a great add to the Cincinnati Reds' bench following the wrist injury to Chris Dickerson. 280/357/760 will have fantasy experts clamoring for full-time ABs.
Not sure I agree. The righty-hitting rookie has reverse splits in his 25 ABs - 1-14 vs southpaws and 6-11 versus righties. Overexposure seems to be a high risk.
Chris Heisey has been a great add to the Cincinnati Reds' bench following the wrist injury to Chris Dickerson. 280/357/760 will have fantasy experts clamoring for full-time ABs.
Not sure I agree. The righty-hitting rookie has reverse splits in his 25 ABs - 1-14 vs southpaws and 6-11 versus righties. Overexposure seems to be a high risk.
Chris Tillman to Start
Baltimore Orioles prospect Chris Tillman to start Saturday against Toronto Blue Jays - baltimoresun.com:
"Chris Tillman, 22, lost the fifth starter's competition to Hernandez in the spring and was demoted to Triple-A Norfolk, where he is 5-4 with a 3.12 ERA in 10 starts."
No news here for mixed leaguers. AL-Only need to weigh the costs of adding a bad ratios starting pitcher against the upside that he will improve significantly on last season's 1.50+ WHIP
"Chris Tillman, 22, lost the fifth starter's competition to Hernandez in the spring and was demoted to Triple-A Norfolk, where he is 5-4 with a 3.12 ERA in 10 starts."
No news here for mixed leaguers. AL-Only need to weigh the costs of adding a bad ratios starting pitcher against the upside that he will improve significantly on last season's 1.50+ WHIP
Thursday, May 27, 2010
When Stanton arrives...
When Stanton arrives, expect Florida Marlins to do some shuffling - Florida Marlins - MiamiHerald.com: "When outfielder Mike Stanton is promoted from Double A to the Marlins -- likely in early-to-mid-June -- it will affect the role of Cameron Maybin, Chris Coghlan or both."
I'd trade either if I could get full-time ABs value for either.
I'd trade either if I could get full-time ABs value for either.
Enough Is Enough
Twitter / Jon Heyman: not sure where june 4 rumo ...:
"...not sure where june 4 rumor started. but mid june better guess for strasburg considering 100 big-league IP target."
Jeez, just bring him up and let him pitch. This emphasis on preserving arms has reached an extreme.
Given there is no definitive proof that babying pitchers preserves them, we have reached a point of stupidity.
"...not sure where june 4 rumor started. but mid june better guess for strasburg considering 100 big-league IP target."
Jeez, just bring him up and let him pitch. This emphasis on preserving arms has reached an extreme.
Given there is no definitive proof that babying pitchers preserves them, we have reached a point of stupidity.
Sleeper SP
John Ely, Los Angeles Dodgers' newest starter, is short on stuff, but not results - Buster Olney - ESPN:
"...when the Dodgers and White Sox discussed a Juan Pierre trade in December and Chicago presented L.A. with a list of available pitchers, Dodgers GM Ned Colletti asked his scouts about Jon Ely, looking for information beyond the fact that Ely doesn't throw very hard.
'Our reports pretty much described him perfectly,' Colletti said. 'He doesn't have overwhelming stuff -- but he's an ultracompetitive strike-thrower, and he pretty much figures out a way to win a game.'"
Fantasy players love the radar gun.
"...when the Dodgers and White Sox discussed a Juan Pierre trade in December and Chicago presented L.A. with a list of available pitchers, Dodgers GM Ned Colletti asked his scouts about Jon Ely, looking for information beyond the fact that Ely doesn't throw very hard.
'Our reports pretty much described him perfectly,' Colletti said. 'He doesn't have overwhelming stuff -- but he's an ultracompetitive strike-thrower, and he pretty much figures out a way to win a game.'"
Fantasy players love the radar gun.
Waiver Claim Uses
Baseball Statistics and Analysis | FanGraphs Baseball:
"June is just around the corner and Super-2 arbitration eligibility is going to expire shortly for a number of top prospects. As a result, you could see a few big names in the Majors within the first two weeks of the month. Let's see how they're currently doing in the minors."
1. Strasburg - already rostered.
2. Jeremy Hellickson - eh
3. Buster Posey - definitely
4. Carlos Santana - definitely
5. Pedro Alvarez - maybe.
"June is just around the corner and Super-2 arbitration eligibility is going to expire shortly for a number of top prospects. As a result, you could see a few big names in the Majors within the first two weeks of the month. Let's see how they're currently doing in the minors."
1. Strasburg - already rostered.
2. Jeremy Hellickson - eh
3. Buster Posey - definitely
4. Carlos Santana - definitely
5. Pedro Alvarez - maybe.
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