Available Players

A common misconception about drafting is that every player who could go for $30+ will go for $30+. As you study the lists of available players, you no doubt see several who can go that high.

The fact is that only a few will break that mark. The others will go for the mid-$20s and inevitably, a player who is worth a mid-$20 bid will fall into the teens.

Why? Money and open roster slots. There is only so much money available to address every team need via the draft. Do you go $31 for Jeff Bagwell when you need a catcher and speedy OF, two position with significantly less available talent? No, you do not. If several teams use the same meme, then 1B will go cheaper at the end of the draft for the simple reason that other teams spent their money on positions of greater perceived need.

Open roster slots also affect the prices. In a 12-team league, their are only 24 rosters slots for a 1B (1B and CR). Going into the drat half or more of these slots will be filled. This limits where a 1B can be placed. With limited space, teams may not be able to take players as high as you would project.

The DH/UT slot is also available but their is no reasonable expectation that it won't be filled by a OF/2B/SS/C or other non-1B player.

With tthis as background, one should think of the number of the highest priced players as "decaying" rapidly - a couple $40+, a handful of $30+ and then the vast majority going in the $20 +/-$5 range.


This doesn't not say that you won't overpay for a player because you will. What it does say is that the player you're likely to overpay for is the $15 one who goes for $21.