Tuesday, February 07, 2006

Bengie Molina Signing

I have read that this sigining does not improve the Jays much beyond what Greg Zaun did last season.And I agree, but the way to frame the issue is not by looking at last season's production but by looking at next season's production.

Who is more likely to produce that? Greg Zaun or Bengie Molina? A 35-year-old who had a careeer year or a 32-year-old who has hit double digit HRs and more than .275 three seasons running? Nevermind defensive comparisons!Clearly, Molina offers a better chance of repeating 11/61 than Zaun does, and that is why it is in fact a good addition.

Another factor to consider is the speed added to the AL East. If the Jays are to live-up to their 2006 sleeper status, then they must consider the added speed within the division.Remember the Jays play almost half their games against the Yanks, RSox, O's and Devil Rays. With the addition of Damon to a less SB-adverse team, Coco Crisp, Corey Patterson, and more Abs for TB's Joey Gaithwright and ready-for-prime-time players BJ Upton and Delmon Young, the Jays will be at a disadvantage with a Zaun behind the plate.

Molina may have slipped slightly on CS, but he will at least garner respect when other teams have men on base.

A quick look at the CS success of both catchers in 2005. Molina was succesful 31.3% of the time on 64 attempts while Zaun's percentage was 22.6% in in 93 attempts. There were almost 50% fewer attempts against Molina than Zaun and Molina was 50% better than Zaun at catching those would-be base stealers. This is a double whammy positive for the Jays - fewer attempts and better success.

A wise move by the Jays on three levels - a hitting one , a defensive one and a contextual one.

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