Fact or Fluke: Joey Votto

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Joey Votto (1B, CIN) had his share of problems in 2009 with depression and dizziness causing him to miss approximately a month of the season. When he was at the plate last year, Votto created his own set of problems for opposing pitchers. Is buying shares of Votto a gamble?

Year AB HR SB SBO BA SLG OPS BB% CT% PX h%
===== === == == === === === === === === === ==
2007* 580 26 16 15 284 469 828 10% 81% 112 32
2008 526 24 7 8 297 506 873 10% 81% 133 33
2009 469 25 4 3 322 567 977 13% 77% 166 37
* includes MLE

The only red flags from 2009 are the spike in strikeouts and a hit rate of 37%.
There are so many things pointing in the right direction: OPS, BB%, PX, and age.
If he could convert a few of his 38 doubles into HRs, we may be talking significantly more power. He finished 7th in MLB in slugging last year.

If he was able to get a little more opportunity on the base paths (career-low 3% SBO last year), he could find himself in the double digits on SBs.

A full season of playing and continued maturation could have him comfortably in mid-30's range for HRs. Votto looks like a savvy investment that could provide huge financial returns rather than a gamble.