Saturday, May 12, 2007

Day 40

Notes from yesterday:

Like super prospect Phil Hughes before him, Giants rookie Tim Lincecum pitched a very good second start - 7IP/8RA/2ER/6K.

*

Jeremy Accardo pitched the 9th for the Jays, but it wasn't a save situation. However, that is a signal that he is the lead dog in the race to get the most saves.

*

John Lackey won his 5th game. If he can get to 17W and the Angels make the play-offs, he will be the 2007 CY Young award winner. He's been a very good AL pitcher but has never won the games his stats would indicate - 13 & 14 the past two seasons with 200+ IP and 190+ Ks.

Friday, May 11, 2007

Day 39

Notes from yesterday:

Brandon McCarthy pitched his second consecutive good game. However, his entire season prior was horrendous and is still reflected in his stats. He is someone to keep an eye on, and, if you believe already, to get.

*

The Blue Jays are going with a closer-by-commitee. According to the Toronto Sun, this will be made-up of Jeremy Accardo, Scott Downs and Casey Jannsen. That's right. No Jason Frasor.

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Day 38

Notes from yesterday:

No sooner does Chris Duncan move to the clean-up spot and Ryan Ludwick moves to the two-hole than Cards manager Tony LaRussa changes his mind.

*

The Yankees got another quality start. Unfortunately, Joe Torre used 5 relievers to finish the last three innings. What are the Yankees going to trade for a couple of reliever this July?

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Day 37

Notes from yesterday:

After batting 5th for the Cardinals, recent AAA call-up Ryan Ludwick was batting second in front of Albert Pujols. If there is anything to that, then Ludwick has a chance to be more valuable than anyone could have imagined entering 2007.

*

The Yankees got their fourth consecutive quality start from their pitching staff.

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Day 36

Notes from yesterday:

Kyle Farnsworth and Mariano Rivera (and some umpiring help) combined to blow the win for rookie Matt DeSalvo. If Mariano is hurting, then there is no one to close games in NY.

*

Ryan Ludwick batted 5th for the Cardinals. It is shaping-up as a real long season for the WS champs.

*

Who is Zack McClellan? 13 K in 11 IP is worth keeping an eye on.

*

Jorge Julio had his first scoreless appearance as a Marlin - including Spring Training! The Marlins are paying him $2.6MM and the team is coy enough about the closer job to keep fantasy owners watching him.

Monday, May 07, 2007

Day 35

Notes from yesterday:

Roger Clemens dramatically announced his return to the Yankees during the seventh inning stretch at the stadium. There is no reason to believe he won't be one of the best FAAB players this season.

*

Joe Blanton won again. He gave-up a lot of hits, but still struck out six. The increase in Ks is real enough. I think he is a 15W sub-4.00 ERA pitcher for 2007.

*

Josh Hamilton has 8 HRs now. Even if the league catches-up to him, he is worth believing-in anyways.

*

Alphonso Soriano made an appearance at 2B. Woo hoo!

Sunday, May 06, 2007

Day 34

Notes from yesterday:

Shane Victorino stole bags 12 and 13. Yet Michael Bourn only has one.

*

Chein-Ming Wang was a strikeout machine. He K'ed four.

*

Brad Hennessey pitched in the 8th for the second consecutive game. He looks like someone to watch.

Saturday, May 05, 2007

Day 33

Notes from yesterday:

Reggie Willits is the new lead-off hitter in Anaheim following the injury to Garrett Anderson. Grab him now in AL-only leagues and mixed ones in need of AVG and SB.

*

Billy Butler is now eligible at 1B in traditional rotisserie leagues, and he has a nifty .438 AVG to boot.

*

Shane Victorino stole his 10th and 11th bases of the season. No one could see that based on his 2006 total of 4.

Friday, May 04, 2007

Day 32

Notes from yesterday:

JC Romero got the save for the Red Sox. Is there something wrong with Papelbon?

*

Joes Valverde blew a save in spectacular fashion. Is this the beginning of his annual sabbatical from the closer's role?

*

Mariano Rivera saved both ends of yesterday's double-header. If the Yanks have another opportunity tonight, it will be interesting to see who gets the chance.

Thursday, May 03, 2007

Day 31

Notes from yesterday:

Alfonzo Soriano hit his 2nd HR of the season. (I can't believe he spells his name with a "f" and not a "ph"!)

*

Carl Pavano looks like he's out for a long time. I'm tired of the jokes at his expense.

*

Tom Gordon is getting his shoulder checked. Assumign Myers moves to the 9th, the Phils are back where they started prior to Myers move to the bullpen - a reliable 9th inning arm with nothing in front of him.

Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Day 30

Notes from yesterday:

On the 1st of May, Alphonso Soriano, Jacques Jones and David Wright hit their first home runs of the 2007 season.

*

Adam Dunn stole his 6th base last night.

*

Not to take anything away from Philip Hughes, but Victor Diaz was batting clean-up for the Rangers - a couple hours after being recalled from AAA.

Tuesday, May 01, 2007

Day 29

Notes from yesterday:

Kenny Lofton stole his 11th base of the season. Fountain of Youth? Sell high? 40+ SB season? No idea, but he has been a quite an over-achiever so far.

*

John Lackey won his 4th game of the season. With the Dice-K hype, he is going to be forgotten by East Coast denizens. He was my pre-season pick for AL CY Young (and I put $28 on him at the draft to support that.)

*

Troy Tulowitzki went 4-4 and brought his AVG up to .244. He looks safe. Now teammate Chris Iannetta needs to get a few good games in a row under his belt to save his.

Monday, April 30, 2007

Day 28

Notes from yesterday:

The Angels sent top prospect Brandon Wood back to AAA. With the rotation looking like the best one in the AL and a weak AL West, the Angels don't appear to need to have any power in their line-up to win.

*

The A's acquired Ryan Langerhans from the Braves for close to nothing. Given how poorly Langerhans did with Atlanta, he may be a good buy low player. How much worse can he get?

*

With the recall of Hunter Pence, CF/2B Chris Burke may be going the way of former Astros prospect Jason Lane.

Sunday, April 29, 2007

Day 27

Notes from yesterday:

Macier Izturis played 3B for the Angels and batted third. Top prospect Brandon Wood has no value right now.

*

Joe Torre got lucky when his decision to start Jeff Karstens over Kei Igawa was negated by Julio Lugo's leg-breaking line drive.

*

Jason Frasor blew his first save since BJ Ryan hit the DL. With Shaun Marcum pitching poorly, Casey Jansenn is worth a look as a back-up.

*

Matt Cain was denied another W by his bullpen.

Saturday, April 28, 2007

Day 26

Notes from yesterday:

Mariano Rivera looked awful, not as bad as Mike Myers, but awful nonetheless. Unless he is injured, no other Yankee will get a save - not that any of them have pitched well enough to even entertain that possibility.

*

Aaron Rowand hit his 5th homerun last night, and Jimmy Rollins hit his 9th. Both are surprises, but Rowand is more noteworthy because his power disappearred after his 25-HR 2004 season.

*

Ramon Ortiz threw another great 4x4 game last bight. His 14 Ks in 35 innings do not auger well for continued success, but he has walked just 6. He can't maintian a .217 BAA. but if it stays in the mid 200s, he'd still be valuable.

Friday, April 27, 2007

Day 25

Notes from yesterday:

Brandon Wood went 0-4 with two strikeouts in his major league debut. I'm not surprised and would not be surprised if he didn't do anything in the next couple days. He needs an extended stretch of ABs to produce and to be judged.

*

Philip Hughes wasn't impressive against a Jays line-up that included Jason Smith, jason phillips and John MacDonald. Worse, he didn't last five innings.

*

Bartolo Colon had his second consecutive impressive performance post-labrum surgery. Reports have him throwing 95 MPH. If true, then he is going to be a $20+ pitcher this season. Stunning.

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Day 24

Notes from yesterday:

The Angels called-up top prospect Brandon Wood. I don't know why, but he is worth grabbing on the chance he is slated to play somewhere for the rest of the season.

*

Joe Blanton pitched another gem last night going nine innings and striking out six. He is doing something differently. I'm a believer even though I don't know what that something is.

*

Don't you hate extra inning games? There is only more opportunities to get at-bats without hits i.e. Morgan Ensberg's 0-7 or Nate McLouth's 0-4 after pinch-hitting in the 9th.

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Day 23

Notes from yesterday:

If the Devil Rays can get reliable middle relief, this may be the season the team wins more than 70 games. The offense is too good not to.

*

Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus did some statistical analysis that showed the poor offense is consistent with bad weather. Sell Adam Loewen now!

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Day 22

Notes from yesterday:

Henry Owens was unable to convert his first save opportunity since being named the closer a week ago. I can't help thinking this situation will remain unresolved.

*

Rich Harden was placed on the DL. This isn't a good sign as his injury has progressed from making his next scheduled start on Friday 4/20 to starting on 4/24 to the DL.

Monday, April 23, 2007

Day 21

Notes from yesterday:

With just four bench players and C Jorge Posada unable to catch and his back-up, Wil Nieves, unable to hit, 1B/DH Josh Phelps made an appearance at catcher. That is the type of funky eligibilty that will occur with the move to 12- and 13-man pitching staffs.

*

Ryan Howard gets a few days off and returns to hit a HR and a 400' sacrifice fly. Who is be to the pitchers who face him this week.

*

Pirates SP Tom Gorzelanny went to 3-0 with yesterday's victory over the Dodgers. He is a perfect sell-high candiate - great stats plus acclaim across the roto-blogosphere. Unlike Twins starter Ramon ortiz who is missing the second part.

*

Jose Reyes has 10 SB through the first 21 days of the season to go with 16 RBI. He is the #1 overall pick next year.

Sunday, April 22, 2007

Day 20

Notes from yestersday:

Mets' reclamation project, Oliver Perez, pitched a gem yesterday, but it could have been ugly if Andruw Jones have gotten a hit against rookie side-armer Joe Smith. Speaking of which, Smith has made the decision to let fellow side-armer Chad Bradford go as a free agent quite smart. $360K vs $10.5MM

*

Anyone notice Royals closer, Joakim Soria, hasn't had a save opportunity since being named to the role almost two weeks ago?

*

Cole Hamels threw a 15 strikeout complete game gem yesterday. I wonder if the Phillies nightmare of a bullpen is going to cause Charlie Manuel to stay with his starters longer than he should?

Saturday, April 21, 2007

Day 19

Notes from yesterday:

Blue Jays reliever Shaun Marcum blew his second 8th inning lead in consecutive appearances. Jason Frasor is safe at closer for now.

*

The Red Sox used Hideki Okajima to close out the Yankees. Papelbon had pitched the previous two days. Okajima is the middle reliever to grab.

*

A's pitcher Joe Blanton struck out 7 and walked only one against the Rangers. I...am...almost ready to declare him a major sleeper. The dramatic increase in strikeouts (about 4.5 per 9 IP vs 7.9 this year) looks like it is real.

Friday, April 20, 2007

Day 18

Notes from yesterday:

The "good" news on Ryan Howard is he should only miss a couple games with a knee ligament strain. Until he plays again, reserve judgment.

*

The "good" news on Felix Hernandez is he should only miss 10-20 days. I can't but help thinking he is going to be an injury risk all season. While JJ Putz may be able to throw 20-40 pitches everyday, throwing 100+ every 5th day is a different kind of workload.

*

If you have ARod and aren't dominating the power categories, you're season is in trouble. Half his numbers would make him one of the best players on any AL-only team right now.

*

Is Joe Borowski the next closer to lose his job? With yesterday's implosion, his WHIP is 2.33. Even prior to that, it was 1.60.

Thursday, April 19, 2007

Day 17

Notes from yesterday:

The poor Phillies! First they move their #1 starter, Brett Myers, to middle relief, and then, their top power hitter, Ryan Howard, injures his knee. Myers is likely being groomed to close. Howard? Irreplacable.

*

Mariner's starting pitching left his start last night in the 1st inning with elbow discomfort. When I said Pitching Armageddon was coming, I didn't mean that!

*

Speaking of which, Indians SP Jeremy Sowers fell from the ranks of the early season elite. Another couple weeks, and things will be back to normal.

*

The Angels will be recalling a bat following the broken finger of Howie Kendrick. Word is it will be Brandon Wood. He'd be worth an immediate grab. Also get Erick Aybar as he will see increased time at 2B.

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Day 16

Notes from yesterday:

Kevin Gregg pitched in the 1st inning of yesterday's Marlins game. For now, he should be considered out of the running for the Marlins'closer job. Jorge Julio? No way. Right now it is a two-horse race between Henry Owens and Taylor Tankersly.

*

Steve Traschel and Brett Tomko fell from the ranks of the elite early season starting pitchers. More to follow.

*

Bartolo Colon is slated to start Saturday's game. Reports had him hitting 95 in his rehab starts. If reliable, then he should be a very nice addition just as the shams begin to implode.

*

If I were an asset manager, I'd be 90% relievers right now if the market was starting pitching. Not even Felix hernandez is going to finish with a 0.00 ERA and .50 WHIP. Pitching Armageddon is nigh!

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Day 15

Notes from yesterday:

The Rockies did the inevitable - removed LaTroy Hawkins from the important 8th-inning set-up role. In his place is Manny Corpas. He is worth keeping an eye on if closer Brian Fuentes struggles/is traded.

Expect to see this type of move more frequently as we get closer to the end of the month. Teams have given players chances to succeed in roles and must re-adjust if the results aren't statifactory.

*

Devil Rays utility man Brandan Harris hit his third HR yesterday. With Ben Zobrist back nearing 50 ABs without 10 hits, a change could be coming here. I'd be surprised if this team can play enough defense in the middle infield with Harris at SS and Upton at 2B though.

*


Blue Jays LF Reed Johnson is having back surgery and will be out until the ASB. Grab Adam Lind immediately as the Troy Glaus injury may have him hitting in the heart of the order for the next couple weeks. If he produces, he becomes a $20+ player.

Monday, April 16, 2007

Day 14

Notes from yesterday:

The news from Toronto is LF Reed Johnson is contemplating back surgery that would sideline him for two months. If Adam Lind wasn't a must-grab before, he is now. Let's get those 20 games in the OF to qualify there for the 2008 drafts.

*

No one is hitting. Amongst the top 100 players in ABs, such luminaries as Gary Sheffield, Albert Pujols and Michael Young are under .200. There is a pitching armageddon coming. Don't believe the hype of the various starting pitchers who have been excellent i.e. Steve Traschel.

*

Derek Jeter committed his 6th error yesterday. He'll never move from SS, and he'll never get the bullying press on him either.

*

Colorado rookies SS Troy Tuliwitzki and C Chris Iannetta are either tremendous buy low candidates or getting close to spending some time in AAA. The same can be said about other rookies who got out of the gate slowly like Elijah Dukes.

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Day 13

Notes from yesterday:

A's SP Joe Blanton struck out five Yankees in 6.1 IP. That is two good strikeout starts to one bad one. A return to his 2005 levels with unembarassing strikeout totals (~150) seems more likely than not.

*

Cardinals OF Chris Duncan looks like his 2006 numbers were more breakout than fluke. His OBP may not remain at .441 nor will his .609 SLG, but I am beginning to have confidence that he will slug .500

Saturday, April 14, 2007

Day 12

Notes from yesterday:

Rangers closer Eric Gagne successfully saved his first game of 2007. Watch to see what is reported about his elbow over the next day or two. Any report of soreness is a red flag to hold on to Akinori Otsuka.

*

If you drafted Astros OF Carlos lee, is there anything nicer than getting a 3 HR/6 RBI game so early in the season?

*

Al Reyes saved his third game for the Devil Rays. He is locked into the the role.

*

Watch Yankees' prospect LHP Chase Wright. He may fill-in for the sore-armed Carl Pavano. Reports this spring had him improving above his career numbers. His 2007 season builds on that - 19KS in 14 IP with a tiny .085 BAA.

*

Randy Johnson pitched six innings in AAA last night. He could start this Thursday for the Diamondbacks. Even with the draft day, salary-reducing injury, he is still likely to make nearly 30 starts. The only difference between him and a $30 SP is going to be the salary difference.

Friday, April 13, 2007

Day 11

Notes from yesterday:

Elijah Dukes is struggling now. He is not dissapointing to me as I expect a low double digit HR/SB combo. For those who got him post HRs with the expectations of a 20/20 2007.....

*

Pitching has been dominant so far. Do not expect that to last. If I were sitting on mediocre starters, I'd begin to brace for an ugly stretch.

*

The Nationals Jason Bergman pitched a fantasy gem - 6 IP, 5 runners and 8 Ks. Too bad no one had him on their team. Nor should anybody.

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Day 10

Notes from yesterday:

Twins SP Ramon Ortiz pitched a complete game gem versus the Yankees. I am more confident today that he has learned a new trick than I was yesterday. With Seattle and Kansas City scheduled for his next two starts, he has a chance to have an incredible April.

*

The Dodgers' Takashi Saito got his 5th save yesterday. With the Dodgers homerless offense and their good pitching, there should be a lot of close games. Saito may finish 2007 as the top NL closer.

*

The Nationals stink. 50 wins may be too much to expect. As a result, start all pitchers against them. There should also be a marginal boost to the Mets, Braves, Marlins, and Phillies staffs as a result of the unbalanced shcedule.

*

Remember hitters who got off to a slow start like Ben Zobrist's 1-17 or Jose Vidro's 1-15 are still coming out of those starts. Zobrist has been 5-14 since and Vidro 2-4. Don't panic.

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Day 9

Notes from yesterday:

Rule V draftee, Joakim Soria, was given the opportunity for a two-inning save for the Kansas City Royals. In an AL-only league, he should be grabbed. In this format, a Ready! Fire! Aim! mindset is the best one when it comes to closers.

*

The Dodgers put rookie RF Matt Kemp on the DL and recalled RHP Chin-Hui Tsao instead of the deserving James Loney. This was done because Rafael Furcal is due to come off the DL this Friday. Don't read too much more into it. If Saito and Broxton were not so good, Tsao would be a nice sleeper for saves.

*

Angels' utility man, Erick Aybar, was thrown out trying to steal 2B with two outs in the 9th and the club trailing. This is the second time this season Aybar has done this. It has to be a record! Do not be surprised to see his SB attempts drop further than his playing time!

*

Bartolo Colon pitched 5 2/3 innings in his second rehab start. He looks like he is going to be a good starter and one that came heavily discounted in all drafts. FWIW, he gave up 2 runs on five hits with 5 Ks and no BBs.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Day 8

Notes from yesterday:

I watched several innings of Carl Pavano's start, and he looked good. If he can pitch that way more times than not, he will win 14+ with AL-acceptable ratios.

*

Henry Owens saved his first game of 2007, but he is still looking for his first strikeout. Expect him to be named interim closer if Jorge Julio struggles again. Some would argue Julio should never have been obtained. Especially with Nolasco on the DL.

*

The Twins called-up infielder Alex Casilla. In AL-only leagues, he should be picked-up for his potential SBs, and OF Jason Tyner should be, too.

*

Ian Snell pitched another gem and did not get a W. He is a very risky 4x4 pitcher without those Ws. I'd sell high if I could.

Monday, April 09, 2007

Day 7

Notes from yesterday:

Oakland A's starter Joe Blanton picked-up the win. He only struck out two so the hopes that he could follow-up his 7-K start with more Ks to solidfy his status as a big time 2007 sleeper remains on hold.

*

Dave Ortiz homered twice yesterday, but a lot of the big HR hitters have not. Woe is be the roto teams whose starters are facing Ryan Howard, Mark Texeira et al when they do!

*

Watch who the Marlins use to close if there is a save opportunity today. He is the back-up closer. My guess is Henry Owens, but I am concerned he hasn't struck out a batter over four innings of work. Where'd the heater go?

*

Rafeal Furcal is days from being activated and making every roto team who didn't draft him based on the early injury regret the move.

*

Randy Johnson dominated in his second rehab start. Roto owners will also be ruing the decision not to bid on him.

Sunday, April 08, 2007

Day 6

Notes from yesterday:

Bobby Crosby pinch ran so his back spasms are not a concern. However, what kind of team speed do the A's possess that a player with minimal speed and a bad lower back is the best option late in games to run?

*

While he sat yesterday, Padres' catcher Josh Bard has been batting clean-up. He is going to be a lot better than anyone projected if this holds. I'd grab him.

*

Eric Byrnes hit his 2nd HR and stole his 3rd base. Looks like he is the legitimate 20/20 player I thought he was following his 2004 campaign. Unfortunately, he failed in 2005 when I was counting on him. As a result, he went to another team in the 2006 draft, and I can only look back in regret.

Saturday, April 07, 2007

Day 5

Notes from yesterday:

Queue up Whitesnake's "Here We Go Again." Bobby Crosby left last night's game with back spasms.

*

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays are the feel-good story of the season. Cancel the remaining 159 games!

*

The Mets' Deolis Guerra is the minor league phenom of 2007. He will be 18 on the 17th of April, is 6'6 and throws 94 MPH in the Florida State League. Here's to hoping arm injuries do not derail him.

*

FWIW, Kevin Correia is pitching the 8th inning for the Giants. If Benitez struggles, he is next in line.

Friday, April 06, 2007

Day 4

Notes from yesterday:

Armando Benitez saved his first game of 2007. As long as he stays healthy, he will close all season for the Giants who have no serious alternatives right now. I have little doubt he was one of the draft day bargains. How can he not be when the baseball press continually derides him?

*

Arizona's 5th starter Edgar Gonzalez struck out seven in five innings of work. He is a pitcher to watch. As one of my sleepers, I grabbed him for $3 in my NL-only draft and expect him to continue doing well.

*

Elijah Dukes homered in his 2nd professional game and drew another walk. Is it too early to place him in the ROY discussion along with Dice-K and Alex Gordon? No, but I wanted to get ahead of myself.

*

Daisake Matsuzaka struck out 10 Royals in his major league debut. I want to see him a couple more times before declaring him a legitimate Cy Young candidate, too.

Thursday, April 05, 2007

Day 3

Notes from yesterday's games:

Twins starting pitcher Ramon Ortiz pitched a gem. His next start is slated to be against the Yankees. While just a start, it should help determine if this is the new Ramon Ortiz or the one who pitched in Washington last season.

*

Bobby Crosby went 2-2 with a SB. Any chance he joins Felix Hernandez as super-hyped 2006 players who fulfill that hype in 2007?

*

Jose Reyes homered yesterday in the Mets final game of a three-game sweep of the Cardinals. I have visions of Eric Davis fantasy stats circa 1986 - 27 HRs and 80 SB. Keep in mind Davis did that in less than 500 ABs.

*

Johnny Damon's calf injury looks like it will force the Yankees to play without a back-up outfielder. Only Miguel Cairo, Josh Phelps and Wil Nieves remain on the bench, assuming Doug Mientkiewicz is starting at 1B. Do not be surprised to see one of them get OF-eligibility if Damon can't play by the weekend.

Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Day 2

Notes from yesterday:

Joe Blanton struck out seven Mariners and walked none. I had previously mentioned his increased strikeouts this spring. If he does dramatically increase his Ks, then a run towards a Top 20 AL starter has begun.

*

Indians future closing prospect Tony Sipp is out for three months with an elbow injury. I really liked him to emerge as an important mid-season call-up. There is no chance of that.

*

Jason Lane was forced into the Astros line-up against a right-hander Ian Snell and hit a HR. So much for platoons. Maybe Garner will stop using no-hit Orlando Palmeiro to pinch-hit when Lane is available?

*

Ian Snell struck out 11 but did not get a win. In 4x4, this was a nice stat line but not very important. Snell won 14 last season. That is the high estimate for any Pirates starter.

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Thoughts on Opening Day

Notes from yesterday:

Brad Lidge blew his first save. I'd advise selling high, but I'd be a season too late. Dan Wheeler is the favorite to step-in.

Speaking of the Astros, they scored two runs against the Pirates. Why? Craig Biggio hit first, and he was followed by Adam Everett. Then late in the game, Orlando Palmeiro got a pinch-hit opportunity, and Jason Lane remained on the bench.

*

Erik Bedard look nasty in the first couple of innings. The TV graphic reported a radar reading of 98 MPH. Much to my surprise, he ended-up being Carl Pavano with some strikeouts. I guess nastiness for an inning is only good for relievers.

*

So Joe Torre is going to use Mariano in one-inning stints. Maybe that is why he pitched him in a non-save situation yesterday? There would be no Torre HoF talk if he did not have Mariano Rivera, whose usage patterns would have broken down every other pitcher in the major leagues.

Monday, April 02, 2007

Jorge Cantu

ESPN.com - INSIDER - Rob Neyer Blog: "What really got Cantu was ill health and poor defense, and I won't be surprised if he returns to the majors at some point as a healthy first baseman with a decent future."

Cantu is 25 years-old and fell victim to whatever mismanagement is occurring in Tampa Bay. Don't forget about him.

Sunday, April 01, 2007

Ramon Otiz

TwinCities.com - Ortiz proves he's ready: "In six spring training starts, Ortiz went 0-1 with 10 runs (seven earned) on 18 hits in 20 1/3 innings for a 3.10 earned-run average. He walked only one batter and gave up three home runs (all in one game) and struck out 16.....So with a Santana-style change and improved posture, Ortiz is ready to head north. And the excitement he's shown all spring about being a Minnesota Twin has not waned. "



I am warming to the idea of a $1 gamble on a player who was considereed the next Pedro several years ago.

Michael Bourn

Bourn all but certain for roster | Inquirer | 03/31/2007: "When you listen to manager Charlie Manuel and general manager Pat Gillick, it sounds as if the Phillies have more planned for Michael Bourn than just a role as a late-inning defensive replacement."



Hello, 20 SB for a couple of dollars!

Saturday, March 31, 2007

Rays: Bullpen includes five newcomers

Rays: Bullpen includes five newcomers: "With a closer yet to emerge, Maddon said Salas could pitch at the end of games. Other possibilities are Reyes, Camp and Stokes."



Way to be specific!

Friday, March 30, 2007

Matt Antonelli

SignOnSanDiego.com > San Diego Padres -- Savvy, big hitters to surround Bush at Elsinore: "....second baseman Matt Antonelli.... "



The Padres first round draft pick was a thirdbaseman last year. Now he is at second. Two things to conclude. 1st, the Padres like what they have seen from Kevin Kouzmanoff, and, 2nd, Antonelli could come fast with just Marcus Giles in the way. If you have a deep minor league roster, consider selecting Antonelli late.

Thursday, March 29, 2007

Dan Johnson

A's to place first baseman Johnson on DL: "The A's gave no indication how long Johnson would be out, but the 27-year-old Johnson could be sidelined up to three months."



Wow. Dan Johnson is a non-facotr for 2007. By the time he returns, either Travis Buck will have made Nick Swisher the full-time 1B or Daric Barton will be getting on-base at a .400 clip while playing first.

Rays: Crucial moves on deck for Rays

Rays: Crucial moves on deck for Rays: "There were indications that veteran reliever Dan Miceli may be released - at a cost of $850,000 - to create a 40-man roster spot, and that the final job among the position players could come down to a choice between former frontliners Jorge Cantu and Jonny Gomes."



Was Jerry Crasnick misinformed! If it is Cantu, then expect a big SB season from BJ Upton.

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Tony Sipp

Drew's Comeback Could Start With Tribe by Jim Ingraham:"Lefty Tony Sipp has not pitched in several days due to some soreness in his left elbow. Atkins said it's 50-50 whether Sipp will be ready for the start of the season."



So much for the possibility of him being taken in AL-only minor league drafts. Sore elbows for relief prospects are not worth the risk and wait.

Matt Moses

Jim Souhan: Castillo will beat you 'til it hurts: "This is the last year of Castillo's four-year contract. He'll make $5.75 million, then become a free agent.

By next season, top infield prospect Alexi Casilla could replace Castillo at second, or perhaps, with a big year, third baseman Matt Moses could move to the big leagues and allow Nick Punto to shift to second or return to a utility role."



Alex Casilla isn't an unknown any longer, but watch Moses. The Twins' infield ranks amongst the worst from second to third. Their OF is also poor. If 3B Matt Moses does well in AAA and the Twins' offense struggles, do not be surprised to see Moses get a shot to add 10+ HR power to the line-up.

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Andy LaRoche

Reinforcements needed for Freeway Series - Los Angeles Times: "LaRoche came into spring training hoping to battle Wilson Betemit at third base but mostly battled himself. He has made seven errors, is batting .180 and will begin the season at Las Vegas."




Andy LaRoche earned his trip back to AAA.

James Loney

Loney, La Roche likely headed to minors - Los Angeles Times: "Barring a last-minute change of heart by the front office, Loney and La Roche will return to the minors, team sources said. Although the primary reason is that veterans are standing in their way, they might as well try to become proficient outfielders while waiting their turn"



Geez this is like Joel Guzman all over again. Except Loney has killed the ball.

Joe Blanton

Gaudin is sharp as a starter / Right-hander still unlikely to get spot in rotation: " No. 4 starter Joe Blanton pitched in a Triple-A game against the Cubs and allowed seven hits and two runs, one earned, in six innings. He struck out five and walked none. "



The five strikeouts caught my attention. Blanton barely struck out 100 last year. In the Spring games that count, he struck out 12 in 13 innings. Unfortunately, he got hit around badly.

Brandon Morrow

Mark Patrick, Orestes Destrade and Buck Mmartinez of Baseball This Morning on XM Radio are assuming Mariners' prospect Brandon Morrow will go Northwest with the club. He is a definite pitcher to draft for $5-$10.

Armando Benitez

ContraCostaTimes.com | 03/27/2007 | 'Not a joke': Benitez likely to close: "Benitez completed his stunning spring transformation, stranding three inherited runners in the eighth inning and then pitching a perfect ninth to save the Giants' 3-2 exhibition victory over the Chicago White Sox.
'He's a true closer,' catcher Bengie Molina said. 'He's not a joke"


The Brian Wilson Era is delayed.

Monday, March 26, 2007

Tampa Closer

ESPN.com: SPORTSNATION - Chat-15140(Insider): "Jerry Crasnick: Erich,

I actually checked with a Devil Rays person today and was told it's probably going to be Dan Miceli to start the season. If you're looking to add a D-Rays closer, your fantasy team is in trouble. "



Fool me once ($18 on Dan Miceli last year), shame on you. Fool me twice....

Devil Rays Closer

Rays: Gomes hitting way back into running for roster: "NOT CLOSING TIME: With the closer spot unsettled, Maddon said he would go back to last year's system of having no set closer to open the season.
'I'm going to do what we did last year pretty much, kinda like mix and match in the beginning,' he said. 'And if someone wants that job, it's theirs to be had. Go out and take it. It's there. But nobody is going to be named that prior to going into the season. I haven't seen that animal yet.'"



Spend accordingly.

Edgar Gonzalez

Ready for the rotation?: "He commands the bottom of the strike zone with good movement on all of his pitches,' Price said. 'He gets a lot of ground balls. He throws a lot of strikes and doesn't get in trouble with the walks. And stays out of the middle of the plate.'"



The D'backs Edgar Gonzalez is one of the few starting pitchers that I like as a sleeper candidate. He pitched very well late last season and has carried it over this spring. For a dollar or two, I see little risk. Just be prepared to cut bait if he doesn't work out.



Here is a link to what I wrote for Fake Teams in February.

Travis Buck

FOX Sports - MLB - Several teams interested in Arizona's Julio: "The A's are content with their outfield despite injuries to Mark Kotsay and Bobby Kielty. Travis Buck, the team's supplemental first-round pick in 2005, has emerged as a viable option if further needs arise.
Buck, 23, has only 212 at-bats above Class A, and the A's only will promote him if they plan to play him every day. That moment could occur sooner than the team initially expected: Buck is batting .366 this spring."



With the non-descriptness of the A's OF outside of Nick Swisher, expect to see Buck emerge as a sleeper. He's got great doubles production in the minors so he could develop 20 HR power. Even if he didn't, 10 HR power makes him a better power hitter than Shannon Stewart, Bobby Kielty and Mark Kotsay.

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Alberto Callaspo

Johnson sharp in 'B' game: "Alberto Callaspo saw his first action in the outfield, playing left field in the 'B' game. Callaspo, who will fill a utility role, has had a terrific camp, hitting .438 in 48 at-bats and showing an ability to adapt to any position.


With an all right-handed hitting outfield, Callaspo, a switch-hitter, could start occasionally in left field against tough right-handed pitchers."



Callaspo is slowing moving-up my sleeper list. With Dave Krynzel and Scott Hairston along with their catchers, Miguel Montero and Chris Snyder, I think the DBacks are going to be one of the top sources of NL sleepers.

Saturday, March 24, 2007

Brandon Morrow

Mariners | M's Notebook | To Morrow, it's big-league dreams | Seattle Times Newspaper: "Mariners manager Mike Hargrove is debating the once remote possibility of adding Morrow to the team's opening-day bullpen. It would be a highly unusual move for a pitcher with limited Class A experience, who is still being groomed as a future starter. "



With JJ Putz's arm scare (he seems fine right now), Brandon Morrow is a solid bullpen sleeper in 2007. I'd like to believe Bill Bavasi knew this before failing to address his bullpen following the Raphael Soriano trade, but I'm too old to be that rosy-eyed.

Jeremy Hermida

Hermida might miss the opener: South Florida Sun-Sentinel: "Hermida is 2 for 35 (.057) with seven walks and 11 strikeouts in Grapefruit League play. If he isn't healthy enough to amass another 20 or so at-bats before camp breaks, the Marlins likely will open the season on April 2 in Washington with Joe Borchard or Cody Ross in right field."



Hermida is slowing slipping towards....busting. He's too young to write-off, so I will say he's falling to sinlge-digit draft salary. That makes him a big time sleeper.

Friday, March 23, 2007

Macier Izturis

The Official Site of Major League Baseball: News: Major League Baseball News: "The Angels will be without third baseman Chone Figgins for five to six weeks after fractures were found in his right middle finger and right index finger on Friday. "



With Figgins out for the first month od the season, back-up 3B Macier Izturis becomes a great play. With fullt-ime work, I wouldn't be surprised to see Izturis steal five bases in April. Given the lack of SBs in the AL, any player who does that has big value.

More McCutchen

FOX Sports - MLB - Top 100 prospects for '07: 1-10: "5. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pirates
Age: 20
Acquired: 1st round, 2005, Fort Meade HS (Fort Meade, FL)
McCutchen's a career .298 hitter in the minors with speed on the bases, exceptional command of the strike zone and perhaps the quickest bat of any prospect this side of Delmon Young and Alex Gordon. Once he settles in at the highest level, he'll be an annual threat to go 20-20 and provide top-shelf defense in center. "


He is still in camp entering the last weekend of the Spring. With Duffy and McLouth struggling, the Pirates couldn't possibly take him north, could they?

Thursday, March 22, 2007

Rays: Rocco: 'I can't tell anymore'

Rays: Rocco: 'I can't tell anymore': "Even if Baldelli does recover quickly, the Rays are likely to handle him with care and rest him often. 'I would rather have Rocco for 135 or 140 games than none,' Maddon said."


I still like Rocco for a double digits HRs & SB season, but, if Maddon holds true, then Rocco is no longer at high $20s draftee in AL-only keeper leagues. Temper your expectations.

Pence's stint in majors over ... for now | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle

Pence's stint in majors over ... for now | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle: "Pence will play all three outfield positions in Round Rock, but he will get most of his time in center field."


I can't imagine Biggio being relegated to the bench after his 70th hit this season, but it is clear the Astros want Pence to be ready to play centerfield. He's likely going to be the #1 overall pick in my NL-only keeper league's minor league draft.

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Mariners | M's Notebook | Up early, out early — Weaver is hit hard | Seattle Times Newspaper

Mariners | M's Notebook | Up early, out early — Weaver is hit hard | Seattle Times Newspaper: "Ben Broussard went 3 for 3 with three singles in making his seventh start of the spring in right field. Broussard hopes to be the backup at first base, left field and right field this season, though he could be traded before the opener. A source in the Giants' camp said San Francisco's front office still can't make up its mind whether to give up RHP Armando Benitez, a potential Mariners target."

Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen still in Pirates' big-league camp: "'He's done a fantastic job,' general manager Dave Littlefield said. 'He's certainly advanced and continues to open our eyes. It appears he's not that far away from being a major-league player. "

With Chris Duffy struggling so far and Nate McLouth being Nate McLouth, (I know, the same can be said of Duffy.) McCutchen may be up soon enough to be a fantasy contributor versus a September recall.

Keep an eye on him.

Monday, February 19, 2007

2007 AL Bullpens

The bullpens are more important than the starting rotations in 4x4 Rotisserie. Given 40% or so of the jobs will turn over, watching the back-up closers is of utmost strategic importance. Even if you punt saves on draft day, you must trawl for saves intra-season to get a handful of points.
































PITCHERSTeamWSVKERAWHIPK:BB
"Nathan Joe"MIN736951.5800.7905.94
"Putz J.J."SEA4361042.2980.9198.00
"Ryan B.J."TOR238861.3690.8574.30
"Rivera Mariano"NYY534551.8000.9605.00
"Rodriguez Francisco"LAA247981.7261.0963.50
"Street Huston"OAK437673.3111.0905.15
"Ray Chris"BAL433512.7271.0911.89
"Gagne Eric"TEX0130.0000.5003.00
"Jenks Bobby"CHW341804.0051.3922.58
"Jones Todd"DET237283.9381.2662.55
"Borowski Joe"CLE336643.7461.3781.94
"Pineiro Joel"BOS81876.3561.6481.36
"McClung Seth"TB66596.2911.8250.87
"Dotel Octavio"KC00710.8002.9000.64
"Otsuka Akinori"TEX232472.1121.0734.27
"Shields Scot"LAA72842.8751.0723.50
"Duchscherer Justin"OAK29512.9101.0965.67
"MacDougal Mike"CHW11211.5520.9313.50
"Zumaya Joel"DET61971.9441.1762.31
"League Brandon"TOR11292.5311.0083.22
"Rincon Juan"MIN31652.9061.3452.71
"Timlin Mike"BOS69304.3591.4691.88
"Farnsworth Kyle"NYY36754.3641.3642.68
"Nelson Joe"KC19444.4331.3661.83
"Tavarez Julian"BOS51564.4701.5611.27
"Hernandez Roberto"CLE02483.1101.4611.50
"Mastny Thomas"CLE05145.5101.5311.75
"Reitsma Chris"SEA18138.6791.9291.63

Monday, February 12, 2007

The Next Jonathan Broxton?

The Dodgers have another fire-balling middle reliever named "Jonathan" in the minors who may follow Broxton this year - Jonathan Meloan. He struck out 91 across 52 minor league innings in 2006. He finshed at AA where he k'ed 23 in 10.2 IPs. More dramatically stated, that would be 23 strikeouts out of the 32 outs recorded. 72%! He is worth watching.

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

2007 NL-Only OF Rankings - Top Half

Carlos Lee sits atop the NL-only OF rankings thanks to his across-the-board quality performance in 2006. He ranked in at least the 86th percentile in each category amongst his OF peers. His 19 SBs ranked in the 89th! I know other fantasy experts a reporting Lee is being taken too high, but you have to wonder if they are under-estimating Lee's numbers.



FWIW, keep in mind that the 75th percentile in SBs is 10. This means the vast majority of NL outfielders did not provide SBs. If you eliminate those OF with fewer than 12 SBs, there remains just eleven players.
















































RankPlayerTeamHRRBIAVGSB
1LEE CARLOSHOU0.3003711619
2HOLLIDAY MATTCOL0.3263411410
3SORIANO ALFONSOWAS0.277469541
4BAY JASONPIT0.2863510911
5BELTRAN CARLOSNYM0.2754111618
6BERKMAN LANCEHOU0.315451363
7JONES JACQUECHC0.28527819
8CAMERON MIKESD0.268228325
9BYRNES ERICARZ0.267267925
10HAWPE BRADCOL0.29322845
11ENCARNACION JUANSTL0.27819796
12KEARNS AUSTINWAS0.26424869
13JONES ANDRUWATL0.262411294
14ALOU MOISESSF0.30122742
15WILSON PRESTONSTL0.263177212
16DUNN ADAMCIN0.23440927
17DEROSA MARKCHC0.29613744
18MURTON MATTCHC0.29713625
19ETHIER ANDRELA0.30811555
20GILES BRIANSD0.26314839
21BONDS BARRYSF0.27026773
22WILLINGHAM JOSHFLA0.27726742
23CHAVEZ ENDYNYM0.30644212
24NADY XAVIERPIT0.28017633
25GREEN SHAWNNYM0.27715664
26PIERRE JUANCHC0.29234058
27JENKINS GEOFFMLW0.27117704
28ROBERTS DAVESD0.29324449
29BURKE CHRISHOU0.27694011
30ANDERSON MARLONLA0.29712384
31WINN RANDYSF0.262115610
32ROWAND AARONPHI0.262124710
33FRANCOEUR JEFFATL0.260291031
34DIAZ MATTATL0.3277325
35EDMONDS JIMSTL0.25719704
36DAVANON JEFFARZ0.29053510
37FREEL RYANCIN0.27182737
38VICTORINO SHANEPHI0.2876464
39SCOTT LUKEHOU0.33610372
40BURRELL PATPHI0.25829950
41CHURCH RYANWAS0.27610356
42DUNCAN CHRISSTL0.29322430
43HART COREYMLW0.2839335

Monday, February 05, 2007

2007 NL-Only Rankings - Bottom Half

As with the AL-only rankings, use these to determine which players may be undervalued on draft day. Amongst my favorites are Jeff Baker, Nook Logan, Chris Duffy and Chris Snelling.



There is no way Willy Taveras is a worse 4x4 player than Jeff Conine. But note two things. Conine produced very nicely in his utility role last season between Baltimore and Philadelphia. With Rich Aurilia gone, I expect Conine to eat those 1B Abs and get OF ones along with regular pinch-hitting when not at 1B and OF. Second, Taveras' HR and RBI are so low that they are negatives in 4x4. If his AVG slips in Colorado - possible given lack of BBs and doubles and triples, he will be officially the Adam Dunn of SBs!



















































RankPlayerTeamHRRBIAVGSB
44CONINE JEFFCIN0.26810663
45TAVERAS WILLYCOL0.27813033
46GONZALEZ LUISARZ0.27115730
47MENCH KEVINMLW0.26913681
48FLOYD CLIFFNYM0.24411446
49SPIEZIO SCOTTSTL0.27213521
50GRIFFEY JR. KENCIN0.25227720
51BAKER JEFFCOL0.3685212
52SPILBORGHS RYANCOL0.2874215
53FINLEY STEVESF0.2466407
54BAUTISTA JOSEPIT0.23516512
55TAGUCHI SOSTL0.26623111
56WILSON CRAIGATL0.25117491
57ESCOBAR ALEXWAS0.3564182
58SULLIVAN CORYCOL0.26723010
59AMEZAGA ALFREDOFLA0.26031920
60GROSS GABEMLW0.2749381
61KEMP MATTLA0.2537236
62BRANYAN RUSSELLSD0.22818362
63DUFFY CHRISPIT0.25521826
64MCLOUTH NATEPIT0.23371610
65REPKO JASONLA0.25431610
66LANE JASONHOU0.20115451
67ROSS CODYFLA0.22713461
68CLARK BRADYMLW0.2634293
69HERMIDA JEREMYFLA0.2515284
70LOGAN NOOKWAS0.300182
71ABERCROMBIE REGGIFLA0.2125246
72QUENTIN CARLOSARZ0.2539321
73RODRIGUEZ JOHNSTL0.3012190
74CRUZ JR. JOSELA0.2335175
75HAIRSTON SCOTTARZ0.400020
76JOHNSON BENSD0.2504123
77LANGERHANS RYANATL0.2417281
78DENORFIA CHRISCIN0.283171
79BORCHARD JOEFLA0.23010280
80LINDEN TODDSF0.273251
81GWYNN JR. TONYMLW0.260043
82SNELLING CHRISWAS0.250382
83MILLEDGE LASTINGSNYM0.2414221
84THORMAN SCOTTATL0.2345141
85YOUNG CHRISARZ0.2432102
86ELLISON JASONSF0.222242
87SLEDGE TERRMELSD0.229270
88BOURN MICHAELPHI0.125001

Saturday, February 03, 2007

2007 AL-Only Rankings

No matter what I try, I cannot get the extreme SB players higher. Thus, you should manually adjut them to the point you like them.











































RankPlayerPosAVGHRRBISB
1GUERREROVLADIMIRANA0.3293311615
2WELLSVERNONTOR0.3033210617
3CRAWFORDCARLTB0.305187758
4ABREUBOBBYNYY0.2971510730
5RIOSALEXTOR0.302178215
6SIZEMOREGRADYCLE0.29287622
7DAMONJOHNNYNYY0.285248025
8DYEJERMAINECWS0.315441207
9HUNTERTORIIMIN0.278319812
10RAMIREZMANNYBOS0.321351020
11SUZUKIICHIROSEA0.32294945
12IBANEZRAULSEA0.289331232
13ORDONEZMAGGLIODET0.298241041
14RIVERAJUANANA0.3123850
15MATTHEWSGARYTEX0.313197910
16PATTERSONCOREYBAL0.276165345
17CUDDYERMICHAELMIN0.284241096
18FIGGINSCHONEANA0.26796252
19DREWJ.D.BOS0.283201002
20BALDELLIROCCOTB0.302165710
21LOFTONKENNYTEX0.30134132
22SWISHERNICKOAK0.25435951
23BROWNEMILKC0.28715816
24DEROSAMARKTEX0.29613744
25BLAKECASEYCLE0.28219686
26ANDERSONGARRETANA0.2817851
27MARKAKISNICKBAL0.29116622
28JOHNSONREEDTOR0.31912498
29MONROECRAIGDET0.25528922
30CABRERAMELKYNYY0.2875012
31NORTONGREGTB0.29617451
32PAYTONJAYOAK0.29610598
33HUFFAUBREYBAL0.26721660
34GRANDERSONCURTISDET0.2619688
35THAMESMARCUSDET0.25626601
36WILLIAMSBERNIENYY0.28112612
37CRISPCOCOBOS0.26483622
38PENAWILYMOBOS0.30111420

Friday, February 02, 2007

2007 AL OF Ranks - Bottom Half

These ranks are based solely on the player's 2006 numbers. As a result, you will see players who are very obviously under-ranked. I decided to leave them as they are because their lack of 2006 production make them "sleeper" candidates under the defition of being under-valued. Does anyone doubt Gary Sheffield will go for less than he would have had he not been injured last year?



There are many players in this list that are true sleepers under the definition of significantly out-performing anything they had produced in 2006 i.e Reggie Willits or Lew Ford.



The top half will be posted later today or first thing tomorrow morning.














































RankPlayerPosAVGHRRBISB
39DEJESUS DAVIDKC0.2958566
40CATALANOTTO FRANKTEX0.37561
41PODSEDNIK SCOTTCWS0.26134540
42DELLUCCI DAVIDCLE0.29213391
43BRADLEY MILTONOAK0.276145210
44MATSUI HIDEKINYY0.3028291
45GIBBONS JAYBAL0.27713460
46GERMAN ESTEBANKC0.3263347
47MICHAELS JASONCLE0.2679559
48KOTSAY MARKOAK0.2757596
49GATHRIGHT JOEYKC0.23814122
50NIXON TROTCLE0.2688520
51HINSKE ERICBOS0.27113342
52OZUNA PABLOCWS0.3282176
53SHEFFIELD GARYDET0.2986255
54YOUNG DELMONTB0.3173102
55SANDERS REGGIEKC0.24611497
56WILKERSON BRADTEX0.22215443
57KIELTY BOBBYOAK0.278362
58TYNER JASONMIN0.3120184
59MACKOWIAK ROBCWS0.295235
60BLOOMQUIST WILLIESEA0.24711516
61STEWART SHANNONFA0.2932213
62CHOO SHIN-SOOCLE0.283225
63WHITE RONDELLMIN0.2467381
64GUILLEN JOSESEA0.2169401
65KUBEL JASONMIN0.2418262
66ANDERSON BRIAN N.CWS0.2258334
67GUZMAN FREDDYTEX0.286000
68CRUZ NELSONTEX0.2236221
69FORD LEWMIN0.2264189
70BYRD MARLONTEX0.2235183
71REED JEREMYSEA0.2176172
72WILLITS REGGIEANA0.267024
73FIORENTINO JEFFBAL0.256071
74MURPHY DAVIDBOS0.227120
75SWEENEY RYANCWS0.229050
76JONES ADAMSEA0.216183
77HAIRSTON JERRYTEX0.2060105
78ERSTAD DARINCWS0.221051
79STERN ADAMBOS0.15041

Thursday, February 01, 2007

Brewers 3B

Tom Hardencourt just told Charlie Steiner on XM Radio's The Beat that the Brewers are not hearing good things about Corey Koskie. If Koskie isn't ready to go, and that is my guess, then Tony Graffanino and Craig Counsell will platoon at 3B. Counsell has the good side of that platoon and should be considered an excellent sleeper for steals. Graffanino is also a good $1 player as someone has to back-up the middle infield when Counsell starts at 3B.

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Josh Johnson

Josh Johnson is a $15-$20 starting pitcher in 4x4 following last year's performance, but he has a new injury. This has caution flags waiving everywhere. To think I was close to dealing Freddie Sanchez for him until the other team got cold feet!




MiamiHerald.com | 01/30/2007 | Pitchers Sanchez, Johnson slowed by sore arms: "Johnson, who went 12-7 last year in his rookie season, has shut down his throwing program after experiencing pain in his lower biceps, near his right elbow. But the Marlins didn't think it serious enough to order an MRI, and he is optimistic he will be able to resume throwing in the not-too-distant future.

''I might be a little behind. We'll see,'' Johnson said. ``It depends on how fast this goes away. They [the training staff] say it's tough to tell.''

Johnson said he doesn't think the injury, which he first felt about a week ago, is related to the strained right forearm he sustained after returning from a lengthy rain delay against the Mets on Sept. 12. "

Monday, January 29, 2007

2007 NL SS Rankings

There is excellent depth in the National league at the SS position. Any of the top 5 would satisfy a team's SB need. Bill Hall provides a HR level one would expect from a $30 OF. With that glamor, the next five or six will fall by the wayside. Those after that are likely to be quality value picks in the sub-$10 range.































RankPlayerTeamAVGHRRBISB
1REYES JOSENYM0.300198164
2RAMIREZ HANLEYFLA0.292175951
3ROLLINS JIMMYPHI0.277258336
4FURCAL RAFAELLA0.300156337
5LOPEZ FELIPEWAS0.274115244
6HALL BILLMLW0.27035858
7RENTERIA EDGARATL0.293147017
8AURILIA RICHSF0.30023703
9SANCHEZ FREDDYPIT0.3446853
10DREW STEPHENARZ0.3165232
11VIZQUEL OMARSF0.29545824
12TULOWITZKI TROYCOL0.240163
15GONZALEZ ALEXCIN0.2559501
13GREENE KHALILSD0.24515555
14HARDY J.J.MLW0.2425141
17ECKSTEIN DAVIDSTL0.2922237
16COUNSELL CRAIGMLW0.25543015
18IZTURIS CESARCHC0.2451181
19EVERETT ADAMHOU0.2396599
20CEDENO RONNYCHC0.2456418
21CALLASPO ALBERTOARZ0.238060
22BARMES CLINTCOL0.2207565
23MILES AARONSTL0.2632302
24EASLEY DAMIONNYM0.2339281
25CASTRO JUANCIN0.2513281
26BLUM GEOFFSD0.2544340

Saturday, January 27, 2007

2007 AL SS Rankings

The AL SS ranks do not provide a whole lot of depth. After Orlando Cabrera, there are flawed players - Juan Uribe low AVG, Bobby Crosby's lack of health - and ones who just don't provide much i.e. Aaron Hill. And I know some would throw Cabrera into the flawed bunch, too - one category (SB) and a ton of propsects behind him (Erick Aybar, Brandon Wood and Sean Rodriguez.)

The sleepers in this group are Jason Bartlett, who should be able to get upwards of 20 SBs with a 5-10 HRs, a sort of Nick Punto with "pop", and Ben Zobrist, who could do the same. But sleepers who aspire to .300/5/50/20? Proof of a lack of depth!































RankPlayerTeamAVGHRRBISB
1JETER DEREKNYY0.343149734
2GUILLEN CARLOSDET0.320198520
3TEJADA MIGUELBAL0.330241006
4YOUNG MICHAELTEX0.314141037
5LUGO JULIOBOS0.278123724
6CABRERA ORLANDOANA0.28297227
7URIBE JUANCWS0.23521711
8CROSBY BOBBYOAK0.2299408
9PERALTA JHONNYCLE0.25713680
10BETANCOURT YUNIESSEA0.28984711
11BARTLETT JASONMIN0.30923210
12PUNTO NICKMIN0.29014517
13HILL AARONTOR0.2916505
14BERROA ANGELKC0.2349543
15ZOBRIST BENTB0.2242182
16CLAYTON ROYCECIN0.25824014
17LUNA HECTORCLE0.2866385
18SCUTARO MARCOSOAK0.2665415
19AYBAR ERICKANA0.250021
20ARIAS JOAQUINTEX0.545010
21GONZALEZ ALEXKC0.111010
22ADAMS RUSSTOR0.2193281
23SANTIAGO RAMONDET0.225032
24MCDONALD JOHNTOR0.2233237
25CORA ALEXBOS0.2381186
26PEREZ NEIFIDET0.2432291

Thursday, January 25, 2007

Alex Gordon Projection

This is excerpted from Tristan Cockcroft's fantasy baseball chat this morning.


ESPN.com: SPORTSNATION:
"What numbers do you see for Alex Gordon? Seems like a sure fire stud.


Tristan H. Cockcroft: Again, exercise caution. Gordon's indeed a surefire stud, but as with all rookies, he's risky. I think the third base job will be his to lose this spring, and if he can get in 150 games, Gordon should be expected to manage around a .280 batting average, 25 homers, 80 RBI. But as I said, be careful, because hype can be a bad thing for fantasy sometimes. "

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

2007 NL 3B Rankings

The 3B pool in the NL is a deep one. The top ones will not hurt in AVG and provide solid 20/80 power. I am very comfortable ignoring this position and gambling on any of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Wilson Betemit, Andy LaRoche (if he is draftable), Wes Helms and even Tony Graffanino.


































RankNL-onlyAVGHRRBISB
1ATKINS GARRETTCOL0.329291204
2CABRERA MIGUELFLA0.339261149
3WRIGHT DAVIDNYM0.3112611620
4RAMIREZ ARAMISCHC0.291381192
5JONES CHIPPERATL0.32426866
6ROLEN SCOTTSTL0.29622957
7ZIMMERMAN RYANWAS0.2872011011
8AURILIA RICHCIN0.30023703
9TRACY CHADARZ0.28120805
10SANCHEZ FREDDYPIT0.3446853
11DEROSA MARKCHC0.29613744
12FELIZ PEDROSF0.24422981
13ENCARNACION EDWINCIN0.27615726
14HELMS WESPHI0.32910470
15ENSBERG MORGANHOU0.23523581
16KOUZMANOFF KEVINSD0.2143110
17LAMB MIKEHOU0.30712452
18BETEMIT WILSONLA0.26318533
19BELL DAVIDMLW0.27010633
20SPIEZIO SCOTTSTL0.27213521
21WALKER TODDSD0.2789532
22GRAFFANINO TONYMLW0.2747595
23CIRILLO JEFFMLW0.3193231
24BAUTISTA JOSEPIT0.23516512
25BRANYAN RUSSELLSD0.22818362
26KOSKIE COREYMLW0.26112331
27AYBAR WILLYATL0.2804301
28BOONE AARONFLA0.2517465
29IZTURIS CESARCHC0.2451181
ANDY LAROCHE

Saturday, January 20, 2007

2007 AL 3B Rankings

The Al has a generally weak class of 3B. ARod is elite, but, after him, there isn't a solid across-the-categories player to be had. The rankings reflect this. Mariners 3B Adrian Beltre could fit the bill if he continues to steal bases and doesn't start off so poorly that his value is only in SBs! The big question in this group if whether or not Royals 3B continues to produce like he did post-recall. If he does, then he will be a lock for the #2 overall 3B. At the end of this list is a sleeper in Devil Rays 3B Joel Guzman. If he makes the team, he is a great player to get for a $1 at the end of the draft.


























RankPlayerTeamAVGHRRBISB
1RODRIGUEZ ALEXNYY0.293512115
2FIGGINS CHONEANA0.26796252
3BELTRE ADRIANSEA0.268258911
4GLAUS TROYTOR0.252381043
5MORA MELVINBAL0.274168311
6CREDE JOECWS0.28330940
7TEAHEN MARKKC0.29186910
8INGE BRANDONDET0.25327837
9LOWELL MIKEBOS0.28420802
10HUFF AUBREYBAL0.26721660
11BLALOCK HANKTEX0.26616891
12CHAVEZ ERICOAK0.24122723
13MARTE ANDYCLE0.2265230
14HILLENBRAND SHEAANA0.27721681
15WIGGINTON TYTB0.27524794
16PUNTO NICKMIN0.2914517
17UPTON B.J.TB0.24611011
18GERMAN ESTEBANKC0.3263347
19MCPHERSON DALLASANA0.2617131
20IZTURIS MAICERANA0.29354414
21GUZMAN JOELTB0.211030
22FIELDS JOSHCWS0.15120

Thursday, January 18, 2007

2007 NL 2B Rankings

Chase Utley has become an elite level player. The fact he plays 2B guarantees he is a first round/$30+ player for the foreseeable future. Keep an eye on Florida's Alfredo Almezaga. He stole 20 last season and should get 300 ABs this year. Ryan Theriot is also going to be a good source of double digit steals for little to no draft dollars i.e picked-up post-draft from the pool. Pineilla likes to run.

































RankNameTeam
1UTLEY CHASEPHI
2PHILLIPS BRANDONCIN
3DURHAM RAYSF
4UGGLA DANFLA
5HUDSON ORLANDOARZ
6WEEKS RICKIEMLW
7KENT JEFFLA
8BURKE CHRISHOU
9SANCHEZ FREDDYPIT
10DEROSA MARKCHC
11GILES MARCUSSD
12CASTILLO JOSEPIT
13BIGGIO CRAIGHOU
14VALENTIN JOSENYM
15MATSUI KAZCOL
16CARROLL JAMEYCOL
17AMEZAGA ALFREDOFLA
18THERIOT RYANCHC
19GRAFFANINO TONYMLW
20BELLIARD RONNIEFA
21WALKER TODDSD
22LORETTA MARKHOU
23ANDERSON MARLONLA
25CASTRO BERNIEWAS
26MILES AARONSTL
31WOMACK TONYWAS
32PRADO MARTINATL
34FRANDSEN KEVINSF

Scott Thorman

Yesterday's trade of 1B Adam LaRoche to the Pirates opens up the first base job in Atlanta for Scott Thorman. He wasn't ranked in my NL 1B ones. I'd place him at #18 right behind Xavier Nady. LaRoche's value remains unchanged.

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

2007 AL 2B Rankings

Interestingly, Ian Kinsler ranked quite highly. I expect him to run a little more with new manager Ron Washington at the helm so a 20/20 season is not out of the realm of reasonability. I was also surprised to see Julio Lugo rank so low. If he can get his RBIs up, he should be a Top 5 2B.






























RankAL-onlyTeam
1ROBERTS BRIANBAL
2CANO ROBINSONNYY
3IGUCHI TADAHITOCWS
4KINSLER IANTEX
5BARFIELD JOSHSD
6CASTILLO LUISMIN
7LOPEZ JOSESEA
8LUGO JULIOBOS
9KENDRICK HOWIEANA
10CANTU JORGETB
11HILL AARONTOR
12WIGGINTON TYTB
13PUNTO NICKMIN
14POLANCO PLACIDODET
15VIDRO JOSEWAS
16GRUDZIELANEK MARKKC
17ELLIS MARKOAK
18PEDROIA DUSTINBOS
19GERMAN ESTEBANKC
20CINTRON ALEXCWS
21BELLIARD RONNIEFA
22SCUTARO MARCOSOAK
23HAIRSTON JERRYTEX
24CASILLA ALEXIMIN
25ADAMS RUSSTOR

Monday, January 15, 2007

2007 NL 1B Rankings

Lots of depth in NL 1B. As far down as Xavier Nady and Wes Helms provides good production. Watch Nick Johnson's recovery fro his broken leg. If he isn't going to be ready until mid-season, downgrade him slightly. However, be pepared to grab him on the cheap as he should be a good mid-season addition.
































RankNL-onlyTeam
1PUJOLS ALBERTSTL
2HOWARD RYANPHI
3BERKMAN LANCEHOU
4LEE DERREKCHC
5GONZALEZ ADRIANSD
6GARCIAPARRA NOMARLA
7FIELDER PRINCEMLW
8LAROCHE ADAMATL
9HELTON TODDCOL
10DELGADO CARLOSNYM
11JOHNSON NICKWAS
12JACOBS MIKEFLA
13AURILIA RICHSF
14JACKSON CONORARZ
15HATTEBERG SCOTTCIN
16HELMS WESPHI
17NADY XAVIERPIT
18LONEY JAMESLA
19DOUMIT RYANPIT
20LAMB MIKEHOU
21WALKER TODDSD
22CONINE JEFFCIN
23SAENZ OLMEDOLA
24SWEENEY MARKSF
25NIEKRO LANCESF
26HERNANDEZ JOSEPHI
27CLARK TONYARZ

Saturday, January 13, 2007

2007 AL 1B Rankings

There isn't too much surprise here. I re-checked Mark Teixeira with a hypothetical 40 HRs to make-up for his slow start, btu that did not change his #3 ranking. More surprising was the fact his finished with 33 dongs.

If the Devil Rays do not do anything about 1B, I love Ty Wigginton as an under $10 sleeper. Throw-in 3B- and 2B-eligibility, and you have an excellent utlity player.



































RankPlayerTeam
1MORNEAU JUSTINMIN
2KONERKO PAULCWS
3TEIXEIRA MARKTEX
4OVERBAY LYLETOR
5MARTINEZ VICTORCLE
6GIAMBI JASONNYY
7SWISHER NICKOAK
8SEXSON RICHIESEA
9YOUKILIS KEVINBOS
10SHEALY RYANKC
11KENDRICK HOWIEANA
12WIGGINTON TYTB
13BROUSSARD BENSEA
14HILLENBRAND SHEASF
15NORTON GREGTB
16NEVIN PHILMIN
17CASEY SEANDET
18MILLAR KEVINBAL
19JOHNSON DANOAK
20SHELTON CHRISDET
21GARKO RYANCLE
22MORALES KENDRYANA
23KOTCHMAN CASEYANA
24WILSON CRAIGNYY
25MIENTKIEWICZ DOUGKC
26PHILLIPS ANDYNYY
27QUINLAN ROBBANA
28GLOAD ROSSCWS
29GOMEZ CHRISBAL
30PEREZ EDUARDOSEA
31LEE TRAVISTB
32PENA CARLOSBOS

Thursday, January 11, 2007

2007 NL Catcher Ratings

The list of NL catchers is topped by the Braves' Brian McCann. He leads a group of very young backstops. 2nd-year man Russell Martin comes in second thanks to his 10 SBs and good, not outstanding, AVG/HR/RBI. Look for Josh Bard to surprise - if he can maintain last year's new-found plate discipline! Chris Coste and Robert Fick are two catcher-eligibles who should hit better than some of their peers and should be looked at as excellent $1 2nd catchers on traditional Rotisserie teams.

































RankPlayerTeam
1MCCANN BRIANATL
2MARTIN RUSSELLLA
3MOLINA BENGIESF
4ESTRADA JOHNNYMLW
5OLIVO MIGUELFLA
6BARRETT MICHAELCHC
7LO DUCA PAULNYM
8PAULINO RONNYPIT
9ROSS DAVIDCIN
10IANNETTA CHRISCOL
11MONTERO MIGUELARZ
12BARD JOSHSD
13BARAJAS RODTEX
14TORREALBA YORVITCOL
15LOPEZ JAVYCOL
16VALENTIN JAVIERCIN
17COSTE CHRISPHI
18SNYDER CHRISARZ
19FICK ROBERTWAS
20SCHNEIDER BRIANWAS
21MOLINA YADIERSTL
22ALFONZO ELIEZERSF
23MILLER DAMIANMLW
24LIEBERTHAL MIKEPHI
25CASTRO RAMONNYM
26PRATT TODDATL
27BOWEN ROBSD
28RUIZ CARLOSPHI
29BLANCO HENRYCHC
30AUSMUS BRADHOU
QUINTERO HUMBERTOHOU

Tuesday, January 09, 2007

2007 AL Catcher Rankings

Thanks to his eight stolen bases, Twins MVP candidate Joe Mauer takes the top spot. Interstingly, there is a lot of depth in the AL as the top nine backstops all had double digit HRs with Mike napoli and Gregg Zaun also reaching that goal.





























rankname teamhrrbiavgsb
1MAUER JOEMIN13840.3478
2POSADA JORGENYY23930.2773
3RODRIGUEZ IVANDET13690.3008
4JOHJIMA KENJISEA18760.2913
5MARTINEZ VICTORCLE16930.3160
6HERNANDEZ RAMONBAL23910.2751
7PIERZYNSKI A.J.CWS16640.2951
8PIAZZA MIKESD22680.2830
9VARITEK JASONBOS12550.2381
9LAIRD GERALDTEX7220.2963
11KENDALL JASONOAK1500.29511
12NAPOLI MIKEANA16420.2282
13ZAUN GREGGTOR12400.2720
14NAVARRO DIONERTB6280.2542
15LARUE JASONKC8210.1941
17BUCK JOHNKC11500.2450
18SHOPPACH KELLYCLE3160.2450
38MATHIS JEFFANA260.1450
19REDMOND MIKEMIN0230.3410
21HALL TOBYCWS8310.2590
36PHILLIPS JASONTOR060.2500
22WILSON VANCEDET5180.2830
23MOLINA JOSEANA4220.2401
23MIRABELLI DOUGBOS6250.1910
25HOUSE J.R.BAL000.0000
43RIGGANS SHAWNTB010.1720
29MELHUSE ADAMOAK4180.2190