JD Drew

Hoffman has Cy Young shot The San Diego Union-Tribune: "Boras said clubs are offering five years for Drew. "

While I would have expected J.D. Drew to get a contract along the lines of Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui (4YR/$52MM) with competition likely adding a 5th year, the fact Boras said he has clubs offering five year deals makes me pause.

I interpret everything he says as an exxageration, and, if he states more than one club has offered a five year deal, then I conclude there are none.

Remember Kevin Millwood a few years ago?

Daisuke Matzusaka

MLB's Oreste Destrade broke the story today that the Boston Red Sox won the right to sign Matzusaka with a $50MM posting fee.

I had been thinking the flush-with-money theory was an exxageration following the Ramirez and Wood signings, but that posting fee is going to make Daisuke close to a $100MM pitcher after he signs his contract.

Barry Zito is in line for Kevin brown money if that proves true.

Hunter Pence

I play in a very deep NL-only 4X4 league that allows up to 5 minor league protects each year.

As such, the pool from which we select our minor league draftees is typically is empty of all the top 2006 prospects.

Fortunately, Hunter Pence was not selected last year, and enters this one as one of the top candidates to be selected #1 overall.

SportingNews.com - MLB - Inside Dish: Diamonds in the rough will be harder to find: "Astros OF Hunter Pence is drawing raves for his play in Arizona as well. 'He's kind of an old country ballplayer,' an American League scout says. 'Naturally strong, hunched back, but he really seems to have a good feel at the plate. He's probably the surest thing out here among position players.' "

Jaret Wright trade

O's agree to trade for Wright - baltimoresun.com

The Orioles are sending rookie reliever Chris Britton to the Yankees for one-year-remining starter Jaret Wright.

So much for other teams being unwilling to trade with the Yankees.

For a player the Yankees did not want they are getting a middle releiver that would likely command $10 million dollars on the free agent market. That is a figure the Yankees won't pay him in the next three years combined!

(Maybe not at the league minimu is $380K, but you get the picture.)

I do like Wright in real-life, but, in fantasy baseball, I'd never deal a middle reliever for Jaret Wright. Those innings-weighted ratios are killers!

Dave Roberts

I surmised Roberts will get 3YR/$24MM and not fit the Rockies budget. Then I read this Journal-Sentinel article.

GM DougMelvin said Roberts' agent told him there were 12 teams interested, and he didn't believe a two-year contract would get it done.

Yowser!

Rockies CF

The Denver Post reports the Rockies are expected to have a $52MM salary in 2006. With $34MM committed to 5 players including LF Matt Holliday, there isn't much room for "marquee" free agent centerfielders.

With the major league minimum salary for 2007 being $380K, the Rockies have committed a minimum of $41.6 MM to its 25-man roster ($34MM for five players and 20@$380K.)

With $8MM per being the bandied about number for centerfielders, I do not see the Rockies addressing there CF via free agency.

Dave Roberts is the player most talked about, but I'd be shocked to see him get less than three years and $24MM. He does have the OBP that Juan Pierre lacks. (51 BBs in 499 ABs vs 32BB in 699 ABs) (Nevermind that Roberts in 35 and Pierre 30!)

I think the Rox could fit Roberts at $8MM in 2006, the team should be aware that Holliday and Atkins will be in the midst of their arbitration years and will take up more and more of the Rox' salary.

Do not be surprised to see the Rockies end-up with Jeff Salazar getting a chance to bring his AAA OBP of .357 to Coors. (And he had a .403 in 53 September ABs.)

Sheffield to Detroit

This morning's Newsday reports the Yankees and Tigers have made progress towards a deal that would send RF Gary Sheffield to the Tigers for...something.

However, the opting-out by JD Drew has made Los Angeles the best place to send Sheffield.

He can step into the vacated RF job and get an two-year extension for $20MM that the Dodgers were going to pay Drew in 2008 & 2009.

The question is what the Yanks will accept in a league-changing trade.

Gary Sheffield to Oakland?

SHEFF IS STEWING By MICHAEL MORRISSEY - New York Post Online Edition: Seven: "Two different major-league officials believed Sheffield will end up with the Cubs or Athletics."

I'd love to see what a deal with the A's would look like.

The Yankees need a first baseman. Would Dan Johnson for Sheff be feasible? With Daric Barton at AAA, the A's could remove one obstacle to major league ABs.

The Yankees could always use a starter/swing starter. Would Brad Halsey be available? Would the Yankees even consider that?

(Personally, the Yanks should pick-up Jaret Wright's $7MM option and use him in that swing role. If the Yanks do not, they pay Wright $4MM anyhow.)

Would Johnson and Halsey be enough?

Or would Daric Barton be a better match?

Without knowing what bargaining position the Yanks are in, I find it hard to speculate what the Yanks would be willing to accept.

Eric Patterson

Rototimes' Nate Ravitz has a glowing report on Cubs' AAA 2B Eric Patterson.

His eyes confirmed what his 46 SBs in 2006 tell you. Patterson is legitmately fast and looks to have developed the skills - OBP and defense - to make him a minor league draft pick in 2007.

With a currently unsettled 2B situation and some AAA success, Patterson could surprise this spring.

Barfield Trade

Here's my assessment of the deal from Fake Teams.

I have little doubt that Barfield will be a cheaper option than Robinson Cano next draft and will provide more SBs.

When Cano hits the high $20s, don't fear taking Barfield to the low $20s.

Red Sox Closer

This morning's Boston Globe reports Red Sox GM Theo Epstein stating the Sawx will obtain a closer via free agency or trade.

If the route is free agency, all Craig Hansen owners can feel free to cut bait as the free agent's contract will likley run for more than a year and effectively block Hansen from rising to the role he was drafted for.

While Eric Gagne would be a sexy choice, I believe his bevy of injuries is too much to gamble on.

More Teahen

Today's Kansas City Star reports the Royals are seriously considering moving 3B Mark Teahen to left field to make room for uber-prospect Alex Gordon at the hot corner.

More interesting is the fact this was decided in early September, and it is the reason the Royals surprisingly cut short Teahen's breakout season.

I would be surprised if Teahen started Opening Day in left field because I believe Royals GM Dayton Moore when he says he wants Royals prospects to hit each level of the minors.

That means Teahen should play enough games at 3B to qualify there in 2008.

A signal that Teahen would open in LF would be a trade of either Reggie Sanders or Emil Brown. That would open a spot in the OF assuming Joey Gaithwright isn't a starter.

Mark Teahen

In the "Comments" section of this post, a reader asked what I thought about the 2007 prospects for Royals 3B Mark Teahen. (Really, he asked, "I'm curious to know your thoughts on Mark Teahen. He seems to be the one with offensive projections all over the map.") My re-phrasing remains faithful to the intent, right?)

I believe he learned something after his demotion to AAA following his horrible start to the 2006 season (.194 AVG). When he returned he hit .313 through the first week of September when he was precautionarily shut down with a shoulder issue.

Assuming the shoulder is healthy, I expect Teahen to maintain a 2007 performance closer to his post-demotion numbers than his pre-demotion ones. I can't say I can comfortably pro-rate his half-season production (June/July/August 16 HRs) into 30+ HRs, although I have little doubt he will get priced into the $20s on draft days 2007.

That said, I'd be comfortable expecting 15-20 HRs and 10 SBs from him next season. That would place him in the $17 range on draftday.

Bonderman/Texeiera Rumors

The rumors of a Jeremy Bonderman/Mark Texeiera trade have a life of their own right now.

Both players are free agents after the 2008 season, and I'm not convinced a move to Arlington will continue Bonderman's steady statistical progress.

If that occurs, then he will be a very pricey starting pitcher whilst Texeiera mashes away in Detroit.

Bonderman could bring bat Tigers need - 11/06/06 - The Detroit News Online: "Q . Whom will the Tigers trade for?
A . I like their chances to make a deal for Mark Teixeira of Texas. A young catcher in the Braves' system, Jarrad Saltalamacchia, is the kind of future starter they could be expected to grab in a separate trade for a pitcher, say, for someone like Jordan Tata."

Jarrod Saltalamacchia should be available in trade talks, but I wonder whether the Tigers would deal a pitching prospect for a catching one.

Adam Dunn

So the Reds new hitting coach, Brook Jacoby, is going to work on Adam Dunn's strikeouts:

"If he were to put the ball in play a little more, I'm sure it would mean some more RBIs and possibly some more hits. It might be an approach thing with him with two strikes; it might be a mechanical thing. I'll have to sit down and talk to him and we'll figure it out. I'd like to think something could be improved there."

That quote will be the impetus for fantasy baseball pros everywhere to covert some number of his 194 Ks into hits and then into improved AVG.

Of those hits, some will be HRs, so the projections for a big Adam Dunn HR year will be made. (Roughly one quarter of his 2006 hits were HRs.)

This will also be buttressed by the fact Dunn is going into his Age 27 year.

Then someone will note his 7 SBs last year and notice the 19 he had a few seasons ago and reasonably conclude his could get 10. Then recall that he had said he wanted to run more just two seasons ago and confidently predict that double-digit steal season for 2007.

And wham! Adam Dunn is hyped enough to climb into the 2nd round in AVG leagues and the late first in OBP leagues.

I'll just recall the hype surrounding the 2005 season when he was going to run more and ended-up with four SB - his career-low!

I'm not buying the hype, but will happily deal a $38 Dunn from my NL-only team if that team believes the hype. (Yes, he went for $38 in that 2005 draft based upon the SB hype, and, yes, I protected him at $38 in 2006. But only for the "guaranteed" 40 HRs.)

Francisco Liriano

Finally, the news fantasy baseball players have waited on has arrived.

Francisco Liriano will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the 2007 season

Recall I was already thinking about what to spend during the 2007 draft back in September.

I have settled on $15 give or take a few depending on the draft i.e lots of money chasing fewer good options.

Randy Johnson

How the mighty have fallen!

From Tyler Kepner's piece in this morning's New York Times:

"The Yankees would like to re-sign Mussina for two years, and they seem to understand it would take more than $10 million a year to sign him. Mussina, who had no arm problems last season, would be the second solid member of the rotation, joining Chien-Ming Wang."

I wish I could forget the $26 million the Yanks are going to give Randy johnson and Carl Pavano.

2007 Fantasy Baseball Guide

Another tidbit:

"As a general rule, I sort Rotisserie baseball players into five categories:

1. Starting Pitchers
2. Closers and Possible Closers
3. Reliable Hitters
4. Questionable Ups
5. Questionable Downs.

I take a first-impression attack towards sorting players. By rapidly sorting various players, I am provided a frame work from which I can evaluate additional information. What is important is a willingness to move players from one group to another or out of a group entirely.

The first two categories are self-explanatory with the exception...."

The $25MM Man

The NY Daily News reports the Mets and 2006 ace, Tom Glavine, are close to a two-year/$25MM contract.

At 41, why can't I stop thinking of the previous two-year extension granted to a NY pitcher? The Yankees $32MM extension for Randy Johnson.

Maybe this will work better for the Mets, but one thing is crystal clear.

There is a lot of money in MLB.

So much that the players will soon be in possession of the ridiculous contracts the NBA can bestow upon their mediocrities i.e. 5YR/$30MM for Jerome James. (Actually, one need only randomly select any Knick as an example.)

In baseball, the $6MM bum is non-existent. There are baseball bums paid $6MM, but they have typically performed well prior to signing.

Alphonso Soriano Rumors

Philadelphia Inquirer 11/01/2006 Phillies will offer big money to Soriano

If the Cardinals can win the World Series with Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen and some no-names, the Phillies would be unstoppable with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Alphonso Soriano, and Jimmy Rollins.

As someone who does not have Soriano in my NL-only league and plays in an AL-only, I am saddend that Soriano wouldn't switch leagues. I really wanted to go $45+ for him at next year's draft.