Sunday, September 04, 2005

Matt Cain

He threw a gem against the D'backs today. One could say the competition isn't that great.

I'd counter that Cain's performance versus his division rivals is a valuable piece of information as the unbalanced schedule will get him up to 25% of his starts against those teams.

If I had to put a guess on Cain's 2006 performance, I would say an NL-equivalent of Scott Kazmir. This would mean 10-15% more strikeouts than SK and an ERA and Ratio reduced by the same. Add in a favorable pitchers park for half his starts and a 3.75 ERA is not out of the realm of possibility.

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