AL Starting Pitchers

Generally, I don't like starting pitchers. Mostly because they can kill your ratios with the large number of innings they pitch. Add-in the unpredictability of Ws, and their three categories are a big bag of fu....uncertainty.

Obviously, starting pitchers are necessary for a top finish in wins and punting starting pitching means punting wins. Unless you truly believe you can punt any category and finish in first (I do not), then you have to do your best.

For me, this means limiting the number of SP I have to 4 or 5. Given my discomfort, I will not reach for a SP if I find myself with 3 near the end of the draft. I will simply take a middle reliever and look towards the free agent pool or trades to address the necessity of a 4th SP.

One way I attempt to mitigate the dangers of SP is to have one stud a la Johan Santana. This way I can use his high innings/low ratios to help off-set a flyer for my 4th or 5th SP a la Nate Robertson or Kris Benson.

Even this strategy doesn't work if the ace blows up a la Curt Schilling.

Another mitigating action is to stay away from SP with WHIPs higher than 1.35. Doing this, I hope to have relievers with better WHIPS that help pull the team WHIP to the sub-1.30 level. I may take a flyer on one SP with a WHIP slightly higher than the 1.35 threshhold a la Scott Kazmir or Ervin Santana with hopes of a breakout. Usually, this flyer will be on a team with a good chance of winning (Santana), but occasionally, potential plays a bigger role (Kazmir).

If that flyer is bombing, I cut bait.

In the "Ace" category there are a few options. Johann Santana is the top one. Following him in no particular order are Roy Halladay, Randy Johnson, Mark Buerhle, Rich Harden and Felix Hernandez. All of these pitchers should go for $30+.

At the next level there are many more options. Unfortunately, some of these pitchers will go for higher prices than they should. Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett, AJ Burnett, Scott Kazmir, Jose Contreras, Freddie Garcia and Jon Garland, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, Barry Zito, Bartolo Colon, and Kevin Millwood. These generally go in to $17+ range

After that tier of SP, most of the draft dollars allocated to them have been exhausted. This makes teams look at their hitting and determine they have neglected it. Teams then focus on getting the best hitters available and allocate their remaining dollars to fixing that.

Here is where I like to step in and buy pitchers. This is where the majority of draftable starting pitchers reside. Many will go for low double digits but many more will go in the $5 range as teams are marshalling resources to address hitting. Amongst my favorites are Shawn Chacon, Tim Wakefield, Jon Papelbon, Josh Towers and Gus Chacin, Javy Vasquez, Eric Bedard, Bruce Chen, Daniel Cabrera, Bran McCarthy, Brad Radke, Carlos Silva, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker, Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook, Kenny Rogers, Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman, Joe Blanton, Dan Haren and Esteban Loaiza, Jarrod Washburn and Jamie Moyer, Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey and Jeff Weaver.

A quick sorting of pitchers by teams shows I do not like the Royals staff in the slightest and have almost as much disdain for the Devil Rays and Rangers. With the Royals and Devil Rays, I see little potential for double digit wins and high risk in getting 175+ innings of nearly 5.00 ERAs and 1.40+ WHIPS. There are wins to be had in Texas, but I do not see the ratios being good.