Bitterness of the Purported Fantasy Expert

The last couple of week's "Master Notes" by Ron Shandler have the distince undertone of bitterness. 1st, he complained about another competitor getting the benefits of Nick Hundley's fast start.

This week, he suggested a rule change that would prevent free agent moves for the first month. Why should the JJ Hardy owner get dibs on Jed Lowrie because of an early season injury?

Increasingly, the sour grapes of los...something is wearing on Mr. Shandler and is coming through on the Baseball HQ podcasts.

These Rays in big, big trouble - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

These Rays in big, big trouble - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN:

"The fans of the Tampa Bay Rays, however, are staring down a lineup that includes Triple-A veteran Dan Johnson hitting cleanup, Cubs castoff Sam Fuld hitting leadoff and 37-year-old Johnny Damon trying to hold off the cruelties of age."

The only reason the smart baseball analysts didn't see this is they were played by the Rays with access and the sense they are one of us!

New Closer in Milwaukee?

Reading too much into Axford nor Saito being used to close out 1-0 victory and Zach Braddock not available because he pitched previous evening?

May be off in Braddock but I'd be very concerned if I were an Axford owner.

Will Carroll's Back podcasting

Mat Latos, Justin Morneau, Jake Peavy injury updates - Will Carroll - SI.com

"...Get ready for SI Inside Fantasy, the new podcast, starting later this week. If you remember my old radio show or podcast, this is going to be much the same thing. Eric Mack and I will give you the best fantasy info, plus I'll have interviews with some of the most intriguing people around the game..."

Talking My Book: Ben Revere

Everywhere he plays, he's serving up crow | StarTribune.com:

"And the size of those gaps [in Target Field]-- particularly in right field -- probably has increased Revere's value as a prospect. All the evidence needed to understand the Twins' belief that speed will play in Target Field is the change to Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka in the middle of the infield for 2011.

On Tuesday, Revere demonstrated that speed definitely will play in the outfield ... any outfield."

Angels FYI: Brandon Wood says he's more mature and confident - latimes.com

Angels FYI: Brandon Wood says he's more mature and confident - latimes.com: "The Angels figure to break camp this month with 12 pitchers on their 25-man roster. Add the nine starters in the batting order, a backup catcher and a reserve outfielder, and that leaves two spots for three players: Wood, utility infielder Alberto Callaspo and slugging first baseman Mark Trumbo."

Al-Only deep sleeper. The real issue is whether Wood has brought into Scioscia's metality.

Will Carroll's Team Health Reports - Free!

Fantasy baseball MLB team health reports 2011 - Will Carroll - SI.com:

"For nine years, I've been running a series I called the Team Health Reports. They've been described as being 'read by fantasy leaguers and major-league GMs alike, the Team Health Reports are the most comprehensive and well-researched look at injury risk you'll find.'"

Talking My Book: Favorite Mixed League OF Sleepers

Chat: Chat with AJ Mass - SportsNation - ESPN:

"David (Los Angeles) Love the chats, AJ ! Need to keep one. Pagan, Gardner or Fowler.Thanks !

AJ Mass (11:10 AM) Pagan... wouldn't even give it a second thought."

NYT Works To Improve Fantasy Coverage

Fantasy Focus: Understanding Your League - NYTimes.com#more-40528

Adding Chris Liss of Rotowire to the NYT Blogs coverage is wise.

Click through for the innings cap strategy - if you do not already know.

Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Cheap SB

Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: Padres Outfielder Will Venable - FakeTeams

Buidling on this weekends revelation that the Padres lack the power to compete on a HR basis and will run, I think it is likely to be an extreme running team as Wil Venable is likely to be the 3rd or 4th best power hitter on the team.

The Padres won't be the Vince Coleman led Cardinals of the mid-80s (314 team SBs in 1985) but it will be disproportionately high.

Mixed League Auction Pricing Behavior

Here are the cut-off points for the Roto-Arcade Pro-Am auction league ($260).

No bids higher than $40 after the 21st player nominated.
No bids higher than $30 after the 98th player nominated.
No bids higher than $20 after then 154th
No bids higher than $10 after the 194th,

Talking My Book: Wil Venable

I can lead the horse to water....

"Will Venable has the legs for larceny and, as of now, more license.

The Padres’ foremost base stealer has been given a green light and a strategic imperative to ramp up the running game. If the Home Team is to compensate for the loss of slugger Adrian Gonzalez, it may have to do much of it in 90-foot increments.

“One through eight, I want our guys to have the mindset that we’re creating tension for the opposition,” Padres coach Dave Roberts said Friday at the Padres’ spring training complex. “(And) It’s going to start with Will this year on the offensive end..."

Drafted him for a $1 in the Roto-Arcade Pro-Am.

Matt Thortons Everywhere!

Chris Ray, Joey Devine could be in line for saves if all goes well for them - Fantasy Baseball - ESPN:

"If there's one major league division in which the closer situations remain at least somewhat up in the air, it's clearly the American League West."

Last season, Matt Thorton picked-up 8 saves. Take a look around the American league. There are proven closers in middle relief everywhere. Expect to see several Matt Thortons - sources of 7-12 Saves without ever being the full-time closer.

New York Yankees: Rafael Soriano
Boston Red Sox: Bobby Jenks
Toronto Blue Jays: Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel
Baltimore Orioles: Koji Uehara
Tampa Bay Rays: Maddon has said he is leaning BBC

Cleveland Indians:
Minnesota Twins: Matt Capps
Kansas City Royals:
Chicago White Sox: Chris Sale
Detroit Tigers:

Los Angeles Angels: Scott Downs, Hasinori Takahashi
Oakland A's: Brien Fuentes
Seattle Mariners: David Aardsma
Texas Rangers:

Talking My Book: Mixed League Auction Results

On the pitching side of a mixed league auction, starting pitching is plentiful. With limited dollars, there will always be decent value at the end of the draft. The key is having the patience to hold back money and to have addressed the other categories.

Can't say I succeeeded as a technology snafu saw the bid on Ubaldo Jimenez jump from $11 to $22 in the time it took for my to click Bid $12. Hence I landed the Colorado Rockies ace for $23 and threw my pitching strategy on the trash heap.

Talking My Book: Mixed League Auction Results

Last night's Roto-Arcade Pro-Am draft ran 3.5 hours without break. It was like I was Kramer driving the dealer car whiel the needle was below empty.

That said, I went big on Adrian Gonzalez $40, Evan Longoria $46 and Prince Fielder $38 and basically filled in from there.

Speed was plentiful and went cheap. I added Brett Gardner and Chone Figgins for $12 and $11. $6 for Angel Pagan, $4 for Franklin Gutierriez and a $3 Flyer on Dexter Fowler rounded out my Cheap Speed Strategy.

Talking My Book: Emilio Bonifacio

MLB: Keith Law assesses top prospects who could still use some seasoning - ESPN:

"[Matt Dominguez] can hit a fastball, but once word gets around that he struggles with offspeed stuff, he's going to either have to make a very rapid adjustment (one he hasn't made so far in the minors) or find himself en route to Triple-A."

I am holding a $2 Emilio Bonifacio and hoping Dominguez's struggles at the plate manifest themseleves before I need to submit my keeper list.

The Spring's 1st Fantasy Oh, fuuuuuuu

Twitter / @Derrick Goold: Wainwright going back to S ...:

"Adam Wainwright going back to St. Louis to have his ligament examined in the right elbow. Mozeliak believes it's 'significant injury."

So can the Cardinal's reallocate the money it would take to sign Wainwright and apply to to Albert Pujols?

Mixed Auction H2H Draft

Over at Yahoo!, I am participating in the Roto-Arcade Pro-Am, a mixed league auction head-to-head league tonight. After finishing 2nd two years in a row, I'd like the top spot in my 3rd try

My strategy, as it should always be in mixed league auctions, is Stars & Scrubs. The details are always which Stars and how much for how many. Last season. I spent early on Mark Teixeira ($35), Ryan Howard ($41) and Troy Tulowitzki ($33).

Should I spend big on pitching as the head to head format combined with mixed league would leave the hitting pool somewhat plentiful in the single digit bids range?

Are You Crazy? Jose Tabata

The Roundtable on Fantasy Pros 911 has a regular segment Are You Crazy. This week it was Jose Tabata can be a Top 20 overall fantasy player this year.

The rational was his stolen bases would increase and he would hit 15 homeruns thanks to adding 20 pounds of muscle in the off season.

Totally crazy. If Tabata added that much weight, i would expect his speed to suffer. He was caught 7 times in 26 attempts last season. Holding that total steady, a better likelihood if he added a stone and a half of wieght, would simply make him Ian Desmond without the SS eligibility.

New Co-Host of ESPN Baseball Today

Twitter / Home:

"@keithlaw: Starting on March 15th, I'll be co-hosting the ESPN Baseball Today podcast with @KarabellESPN Tuesday through Thursday every week."

This is great news. Just don't remark that a statue of Bud Selig is good for pigeons to use as a bathroom.

BaseballNotebook.com - If Sleepers Existed Part 2

BaseballNotebook.com - If Sleepers Existed Part 2:

"Evan Meek, Pittsburgh: Look at how good he was in 70 games last year and realize that even with no more than average control, the rest of his game is good enough to be just about anyone's closer let alone Pittsburgh's. We recognize that Joel Hanrahan goes into the spring with a virtually equal chance to emerge as the closer and both Meek and Hanrahan will probably both set career-high saves marks in 2011. We're still pretty sure that Meek is already the better pitcher, so much more than Hanrahan that no matter who wins the battle this spring, we expect Meek will be the closer by the end of the season. His other numbers will be good enough to help a fantasy team even while everyone's waiting for that to happen."

I have him at $10. That is somewhat steep for a back-up closer but I want to protect him.

Talking My Book: David Freese

NL only 4x4 Keeper League. I have Cardinals 3B David Freese for $6. A leaguemate is offering an $18 Scott Rolen. Am i only talking my book to think Freese is a better value?

BaseballNotebook.com - If Sleepers Existed Part 1

BaseballNotebook.com - If Sleepers Existed Part 1:

"Emilio Bonifacio, of, Florida: He stole 12 bases last year and was not caught at all, this in only 73 games. It looks as though he's going to get lots of playing time in center field in 2011 and while there's no hope of any power, the speed makes him at least worth some attention."

I'm always happy to find validation for sleepers who I have to possibility to protect. My guess is Bonifacio gets 20 games at 3B as I can't believe the Marlins will stick Matt Dominguez at 3B when the consensus in the scouting community is he can't hit for a 3B.

Why not send him to AAA for two months and save a year of eliginility?

The Roundtable Show - Download free podcast episodes by Patrick DiCaprio on iTunes.

The Roundtable Show - Download free podcast episodes by Patrick DiCaprio on iTunes.: "The Roundtable ShowBy Patrick DiCaprioTo listen to an audio podcast, mouse over the title and click Play. Open iTunes to download and subscribe to podcasts"

Rickie Weeks Is The next...

...Reggie Sanders? A player whose injury history cements the reputation as an injury-prone player but who actually produces every year.

Fluke watch (potential closer edition): Evan Meek and Brandon League

Fluke watch (potential closer edition): Evan Meek and Brandon League:

"Meek is also a fascinating pitcher with odd pitching splits, but in such a way that make him a much better bet to be a successful closer, if given the opportunity, than League. Like League, Meek has two pitches that look like they could be plus pitches, a fastball with a good amount of cutting action and velocity, and a slider with solid horizontal movement."

MLB: These young players just missed the rankings because of service time - ESPN

MLB: These young players just missed the rankings because of service time - ESPN:

"It could be another two or three years until we see Strasburg throw a full, effective major league season, but with all indications that the ligament transplant surgery was successful, he remains Washington's long-term No. 1 starter."

Keeper leagues needs to consider this.

Will Carroll's 2011 Team Health Reports

Will Carroll's Rndm Crap - Risky Business:

"I’ve been working on what we’ve known as Team Health Reports for the last couple weeks, really digging in over the last few days. It’s mostly an intellectual exercise for me, since I don’t have a place to publish them. At worst, I’ll put the matrix up somewhere"

Really, Buster?

MLB: Albert Pujols and Michael Young could both be elsewhere next year - ESPN

"As written here before: You can debate the merits of giving a slugger who just turned 31 a 10-year deal based on what you expect his production to be, and you won't have to look hard for reasons to not do that kind of deal. For example: Rodriguez has seven years remaining in his 10-year, $275 million deal with the Yankees, and already it appears that the last years of his contract will be sunk money for the richest franchise in the sport, because there already are signs of regression in the third baseman."

No one believes any long-term contract signed in a player's early 30s won't be sunk costs in his late 30s.

To believe otherwise is to be Randy Levine regurgitating Scott Boras bullcrap.

From KLaw

MLB: These prospects will impact the majors in 2011 - ESPN:

"But the Angels have an irrational love of the infinite out-making capacity of Jeff Mathis,..."

Dynasty League Sleeper

BaseballAmerica.com: College: Top 25 Rankings: 2011 Preseason College Top 25:

"Power: 60. George Springer's lightning-quick bat makes him one of the nation's best power hitters....

Speed: 75. The Huskies have loads of speed and aren't afraid to use it on the basepaths—they ranked second in the nation with 171 stolen bases a year ago. They're also efficient basestealers, as evidenced by their 84 percent success rate in 2010. George Springer and Ferriter are plus-plus runners who always have the green light....

Defense: 65. UConn is very strong up the middle, as George Springer and Ahmed are superb defenders with excellent range..."

Received Baseball America Prospect Handbook 2011 yesterday. Springer is ranked 5th in College Top 100 and his teammate RHP Matt Barnes ranked 7th.

And the first propsect write-up I read was Texas Rangers' #7 prospect, 3B Mike Holt, a UCONN alumni.

UCONN Baseball 2011!

Chat: Chat with Keith Law - SportsNation - ESPN: "Rich (Evanston)


With all the talk of Rendon and the great college pitching crop, does George Springer have a chance to sneak into the top 5, and who might you compare him to based on his tool set?
Klaw (1:27 PM)


I think he has to be a consideration at 1 and at every pick on down from there. His major flaw now is his two-strike approach - he has none - and that can be taught. Impact defender in RF with patience and power who's not that far away? Who doesn't want that?"

ESPN.com Is Ranking Weiters Where?

ESPN.com's Fantasy Baseball Rankings Summit - Fantasy Baseball - ESPN

Nate Ravitz: Top 7 catchers are settled in the room
Mauer, V-Mart, McCann, Posey, Santana, Soto, Montero

Post-hype/still hyped sleeper Matt Wieters is a super value relative to that!

If CarGo falls....

Fantasy Baseball 2011 Mock Draft, Round 1 - Roto Arcade - Fantasy  - Yahoo! Sports:

"5. Carlos Gonzalez(notes), OF, Colorado Rockies – Naysayers strongly emphasize to never pay for a career year, but the axiom simply doesn’t apply to CarGo. Yes, his sub-80 contact percentage suggests his .336 BA from ’10 is unrepeatable, but, even if his totals sag slightly, last year’s No. 1 commodity in Y! leagues will be one of virtual baseball’s most reliable multi-cat bats. An uptick in power is also possible. Keep in mind he’s still just 25. –Brad Evans"

A Sub-80% contact rate implies more than a "sag slightly". If says, CarGo will be closer to Mike Cameron than 2010 Cargo.

FP911: Fantasy Baseball Scout Team for 1/11

The Dirty Dozen: Your Fantasy Baseball Scout Team for 1/11

Interesting list. Notice Juan Francisco mentioned. The Reds blocked him by reworkign Scott Rolen's contract last season which extended him through 2012.

A trade, however, will unleash the next 30+ HR 3B.

Third Time Is The Charm

The Baltimore Prioles have added legitmate offensive production in Derek lee, JJ Hardy and Mark Reynolds. This should have the effect of pushing PECOTA-destroying Matt Wieters away from the clean-up spot and into a much less pressurized line-up spot.

So yeah, I'm up on Wieters this year.

Why Waiting On Closers Works

Pirates to decide on Meek or Hanrahan as closer by spring: "'This is not something that we have to answer right now, but this is something that we want to have an answer to before spring training,' he said. We won't have a competition for the closer ... during spring training. Whoever is our closer, is our closer.'"

Evan meek or Joel Hanrahan will be named the closer entering Spring. Draft the other one.

1st Mock Draft - #5 Pick

I know the presentation is sloppy, but the data is true. I took Longoria, Fielder and then Lee. After that, the whole draft looked undifferentiated.

C Carlos Santana CLE R8 P8 Comment
C J.P. Arencibia TOR R21 P5 Comment
1B Prince Fielder MIL R2 P8 Comment
2B Rickie Weeks MIL R4 P8 Comment
2B Howie Kendrick ANA R14 P8 Comment
SS Reid Brignac TB R22 P8 Comment
3B Evan Longoria TB R1 P5 Comment
3B Adrian Beltre TEX R5 P5 Comment
OF B.J. Upton TB R7 P5 Comment
OF Alfonso Soriano CHC R9 P5 Comment
OF Bobby Abreu ANA R11 P5 Comment
OF Dexter Fowler COL R12 P8 Comment
OF Brett Gardner NYY R15 P5 Comment
DH David Ortiz BOS R13 P5 Comment
SP Cliff Lee PHI R3 P5 Comment
SP Cole Hamels PHI R6 P8 Comment
SP Brandon Morrow TOR R17 P5 Comment
SP Brett Myers HOU R20 P8 Comment
SP Jonathon Niese NYM R23 P5 Comment
RP Heath Bell SD R10 P8 Comment
RP Ryan Franklin STL R16 P8 Comment
RP Joel Hanrahan PIT R18 P8 Comment
RP John Axford MIL R19 P5 Comment

Deeeeeeeeep AL-Only Sleeper

Sam Fuld Is Baseball’s Most Fascinating 4th OF | FanGraphs Baseball

Sam Fuld is a 29-year-old outfielder deemed a prospect in the Matt Garza trade write-ups. At his age, expect him to make the Rays roster this year.

In his favor as a sleeper is a minor league track record of accumulating more walks than strikeouts in his minor league career (66 versus 29 in 2010) and having some speed (21 SBs last year.) That sounds like a good recipe for playing time on the Runnin' Rays.

2011 production? Think Emilio Bonifacio with a better AVG.

How 2011 Fantasy Baseball Drafts Look

Reviewing some early ADP data at Mock Draft Central, I can't help wondering what happened to the second half od the 1st round through the 4th. By that, I mean the number of elite players appear to have dimished.

Robinson Cano is now a 1st rounder? Hanley Ramirez is still #2 overall despite a large drop in production from four season ago?

Low Risk, High Reward Pool for 2011

Listening to the Basbeall America podcast covering the NL Central (skip to 24:00 left for beginning), the Cincinnati Reds were mentioned as team stocked with major league ready prospects blocked everywhere on the major league roster.

Scoop up Chris Heisey, Juan Francisco, Yonder Alonso, Todd Frazier, etc and wait for the trades. All can be full-timers on second division teams.

Also, was that an Up The Academy reference by John Manual when referring to Kevin Brown?

Paid Sources of Fantasy Baseball Prepartion

Right now, I have paid for the Baseball Forecaster from Baseball HQ and Baseball Prospectus 2011(yet to be delivered). I am still deciding if getting Baseball America Prospect Handbook a couple weeks early is worth overpaying to order through BA.

The money isn't the issue as I have enough. Nor is the chance I'll be disappointed in the product. I just loathe paying 7-10 dollars for shipping when I know the USPO charges more an half as much.

Fantasy Baseball Preparation Is Beginning

This week the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Podcast on Blog Talk Radio returned to its Tuesday evening slot. Amongst the players discussed were Derek Lee, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford.

The most interesting what Pat DiCaprio's Are You Crazy? He posited that Colorado Rockies CF Dexter Fowler will produce more fantasy value than teammate Carlos Gonzalez.

Then Mike Posner conjectured that if Fowler went 15/40/.280 what would that be?

I answered, "Carl Crawford."

So will Fowler be more valuable than CarGo in 2011? I say he will as CarGo is a 1st rounder and Fowler is going to go in the 9-11th rounds as every team begins to fill out its rosters.

Give me any other 1st rounder ex-Pujols and Fowler over CarGo and the 11th rounder with one or two fantasy flaws.