BaseballNotebook.com - If Sleepers Existed Part 2

BaseballNotebook.com - If Sleepers Existed Part 2:

"Evan Meek, Pittsburgh: Look at how good he was in 70 games last year and realize that even with no more than average control, the rest of his game is good enough to be just about anyone's closer let alone Pittsburgh's. We recognize that Joel Hanrahan goes into the spring with a virtually equal chance to emerge as the closer and both Meek and Hanrahan will probably both set career-high saves marks in 2011. We're still pretty sure that Meek is already the better pitcher, so much more than Hanrahan that no matter who wins the battle this spring, we expect Meek will be the closer by the end of the season. His other numbers will be good enough to help a fantasy team even while everyone's waiting for that to happen."

I have him at $10. That is somewhat steep for a back-up closer but I want to protect him.

Fantasy Sleeper: Washington Nationals

For whatever reason, the Nationals signed Adam Kennedy to play second base. This move ranks with Oakland A's GM Billy Beane's decisions to accumulate unproductive hitters to play the outfield.

There is a player in the Washington organization who has the outfield production in two brief stints over the past three seasons that makes fantasy players drool. He is CF Justin Maxwell. At 252/333/461 over 129 PAs with 6 HRs and 6 SBs, Maxwell has the skill set fantasy players look for. (Yes, AVG is typically ignores.)

What struck me was this line in the Baseball America Prospect Handbook 2010:
"...got the idea to lower his hands to chest level...fueled Maxwell's September surge [306/370/551]..."

Killing Fantasy Sleepers at OF

Johnny Damon! Calling Johnny Damon to kill fantasy sleepers!

New York Yankess Brett Gardner
Cleveland Indians Michael Brantley
Detroit Tigers Austin Jackson
Kansas City Royals Scott Podsednick
Oakland A's Rajai Davis and Michael Taylor
Seattle Mariners Michael Saunders
Atlanta Braves Jason Heyward
Washington Nationals Elijah Dukes and Jason Maxwell
San Diego Padres Wil Venable
Colorado Rockies OF Seth Smith

Killing Fantasy Sleepers at DH

Jim Thome is going to land somewhere. When he does, he will devour DH ABs from the good side of a platoon. Almost every power-hitting sleeper will be affected by the loss of DH ABs. Here is a DH-only whose hype is beginning grow thanks to a reported re-dedication to fitness.

Chicago White Sox Andruw Jones

Killing Fantasy Sleepers at SS

SS Orlando Cabrera is going to kill the fantasy value of these sleepers at SS. Count on it.

Washington Nationals Ian Desmond
Oakland A's Cliff Pennington
Houston Astros Tommy Manzella

Killing Fantasy Sleepers at 1B

As Carlos Delgado remains on the market, there is little doubt he will find a club in need of a 1B. Here are the fantasy sleepers in the crosshairs of this eventual signing.

Baltimore Orioles Mike Aubrey
Toronto Blue Jay Brent Wallace
Cleveland Indians Matt LaPorta
1B Chris Davis
Florida Marlins Gaby Sanchez and Logan Morrison
Pittsburgh Pirates Jeff Clement

Killing Fantasy Sleepers at C

While the free agent pool at catcher isn't deep, Rod Barajas has established himself enough to threaten these sleeper catchers.

Seattle Mariners Adam Moore
New York Mets Josh Thule,

Fantasy Sleeper Killer

MLB -- Buster Olney -- The New York Mets get Gary Matthews Jr., an outfielder who can't hit for average, can't hit for power and can't play defense - ESPN

As if the link headline didn't say it all, here is more from Mr. Olney's piece:

"I still see Matthews as an expensive extra outfielder," said the scout. "The Angels knew they were fooled by his Texas numbers before they went after Hunter. He should still be able to play center field while Beltran is out, but he hasn't shown any sock since he was outed for receiving shipments of HGH a couple years ago. His bat has been dragging through the zone the last couple years. Nevertheless, he should benefit from getting more consistent at bats in NY than he had been getting in Anaheim."

Despite these reports, I believe Angel Pagan just saw his fantasy sleeper value reduced, and an act of sleeper-icide was just committed against Fernando Martinez.

Killing Fantasy Sleepers at 3B

Following up on yesterday's "Killing Fantasy Sleepers" column, here are a few sleepers at 3B who are threatened by the likes of veteran hot cornerman Joe Crede or Miguel Tejada.

Minnesota Twins Danny Valencia
St. Louis Cardinals David Freese
Los Angeles Angels Brandon Wood

Killing Fantasy Sleepers at 2B

With pitchers and catchers reporting in a month, most fantasy experts have a list of sleepers ready to be disgorged to a public with a voracious appetite to read about them. Unfortunately, there exists a ton of established veterans at every position ready to make those sleepers worthless.

Here are some fantasy baseball sleepers at 2B who are not going to survive as such thanks to the looming presence of Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez:

Arizona Diamondbacks Kelly Johnson
Minnesota Twins Alexei Casilla
Colorado Rockies Eric Young Jr.
Chicago Cubs Jeff Baker

Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

DH Vladimir Guerrero. After signing with the Texas Rangers, no one will be able to ignore his career mark of 394/471/705 at Rangers Ballpark. Heck, in 2009, his worst season, Vlad hit 440/500/640 there.

As a DH-only, I can't see Guerrero, regardless of sleeper hype, being drafted much earlier than the 7th or 8th round by the most excited Vladdy supporter. Myself? A late round flyer.

My worry is the 19 BB and 56 Ks. That was also a career worse ratio. Just two seasons ago, Guerrero walked 71 times and struck out a mere 62 times.

Fantasy Sleeper: 3B

With HRs down, the value of the 20 HR hitter has increased. There exists a 3B/OF qualifier who is likely to be a single-digit player in AL-only auction drafts and an end-game draftee/free agent in mixed formats.

His name? Mark Teahen.

While there is little in his profile to make anyone believe he can hit 20 HRs (50% groundball rate, sub-80% contact rate), he does have a new home ballpark, U.S. Cellular Field. In it, Teahen has a career SLG of .510 and a HR/AB rate of 5.8% compared to a .424 and 2.3% rates at Kauffman Stadium.

The math works out to 21-22 HRs assuming the relationships hold in 2010.

Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

No real surprise here, but 3B/OF Jake Fox, now of the Oakland A's, is a mixed league sleeper. The ease with which sluggers hit 20+ HRs no longer exists in the form most fantasy players have become accustomed to assuming.

As a result, Fox's 11 HRs 216 ABs in 2008 means he should easily surpass 20 HRswith a season's full of ABs. As long as he avoid a Jack Custian sub-.240 AVG, he will have value in mixed formats.

FWIW, 30 players hit 30 or more HRs in 2008. 77 hit 20-29. The math in standard mixed leagues: 12 teams with 13 hitters equals 156 players. In 10-team leagues, that is still 130 hitters.

2010 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

The New York Yankees released 30-year-old right-handed slugger Shelly Duncan. A season after Garrett Jones made himself into a fantasy-relevent OF, Duncan has the chance to do the same.

While I think his right-handed power makes him a perfect fit for the Minnesota Twins, I'd prefer he land on a team with more opportunity.

Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

Riggleman: Guzman a second baseman | nationals.com: News: "'I don't know if Desmond will be the shortstop, but as I stand here right now, I would be happy with it, because I know what kind of effort I'm going to get,' Riggleman said. 'I know the energy that he brings to the team. I know how athletic he is. I'm excited about Desmond's future. He has a future somewhere. It might be this year.'"

This doesn't comport with the anonymous NL sources who told FOXSports the Nats want veterans Alex Gonzalez or Adam Everett to play SS for their last place, going nowhere team, but it is the kind of statement that strengthens a sleeper like Ian Desmond.

Over the past three seasons, Desmond has seen his SLG go from the high .300s in 2006 to the high 400s in 2008. At SS, he is a sleeper. Add-in double digit HRs and 20+ SBs and you have the potential to send the on-line baseball community into spasms of apolexy if the Nats waste space on a veteran SS.

Fantasy Baseball 2010: DH-Only Part II

Yesterday, I noted those DH-only qualifiers who failed to make 20 appearances at any position in 2009. Today, the DH-only qualifiers include those who have made at least 20 appearances at DH and fewer than 20 at any other position. It more of a mixed league sleepers list, but many will go for cheap in single format auction leagues.

The greatest sleeper potential when combined with likely auction price? DH Randy Ruiz of the Toronto Blue Jays.

David Ortiz
Hideki Matsui
Pat Burrell
Mike Jacobs
Jim Thome
Ken Griffey Jr.
Vlad Guerrero
Travis Hafner
Mike Sweeney
Andruw Jones
Randy Ruiz
Nomar Garciaparra

Fantasy Baseball: 2010 Sleeper

Just an FYI. Pittsburgh Pirates OF Garrett Jones has 32 HRs and 23 SBs combine dbetween the majors and AAA.

If you believe, he is a legitmate 10th rounder.

Fantasy Football: Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 Sleepers And Busts

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Football Outsiders Almanac 2009:

"The players listed for each team are one expected to rise, one expected to fall, and one to look out for, respectively.

Atlanta Falcons: Jerious Norwood, Matt Ryan, Stephen Nicholas
Carolina Panthers: Jeff Otah, DeAngelo Williams, Charles Johnson
New Orleans Saints: Pierre Thomas, Jeremy Shockey, Tracy Porter
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kellen Winslow, Ronde Barber, Roy Miller
Houston Texans: Matt Schaub, Jacques Reeves, Xavier Adibi
Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Gonzalez, Jeff Saturday, Ed Johnson
Jacksonville Jaguars: David Garrard, Rob Meier, Torry Holt
Tennessee Titans: LenDale White, Cortland Finnegan, Jason Jones"

Fantasy Football: More Sleepers And Overall Draft Positions

Whenever one listens to various fantasy football experts talk about players, one always hears this guy is a RB2 or a 3rd wide receiver or a QB2. The problem is there isn't any sort of way to see these players grouped together. Rotisserie Musings steps into this gap and provides RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, QB, TE, FLEX and Bench designations for your improved fantasy football preparation and knowledge.

Here are the 3rd and a few 4th bench spots taken with the overall pick used. This is typically where fantasy drafts begin to take their fantasy football sleeper RBs, sleeper WR and then fantasy sleeper QBs and TEs later. You will also find sleepers in the Flex position for those who tend to reach earlier for them.

OA	Player	Roster
99	Ben Roethlisberger	BN3
109	Laurence Maroney	BN3
110	Steve Breaston	BN3
111	Justin Fargas	BN3
112	Darius Heywood-Bey	BN3
113	Matt Hasselback	BN3
114	Carson Palmer	BN3
115	Eli Manning	BN3
116	Torry Holt	BN3
117	John Carlson	BN3
119	Jamaal Charles	BN3
120	Jack Delhomme	BN3
121	Chester Taylor	BN4
122	Kyle Orton	BN4
123	Brandon Pettigrew	BN4
124	Kevin Walter	BN4
125	Ricky Williams	BN4

TE Ranks
Sleeper Ranks 2
QB Ranks
Fantasy Football Sleepers 1
Flex Ranks
WR2 Results
WR1 Results
RB1 Results
RB2 Results
12-team PPR draft results

Fantasy Football: Sleepers And Overall Draft Position

Whenever one listens to various fantasy football experts talk about players, one always hears this guy is a RB2 or a 3rd wide receiver or a QB2. The problem is there isn't any sort of way to see these players grouped together. Rotisserie Musings steps into this gap and provides RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, QB, TE, FLEX and Bench designations for your improved fantasy football preparation and knowledge.

Here are the second bench spots taken with the overall pick used. This is typically where fantasy drafts begin to take their fantasy football sleeper RBs, sleeper WR and then fantasy sleeper QBs and TEs later. You will also find sleepers in the Flex position for those who tend to reach earlier for them.

OA	Player	Roster
75	Fred Jackson	BN2
89	Donald Driver	BN2
90	Willie Parker	BN2
97	Percy Harvin	BN2
98	Chad OchoCinco	BN2
100	Chris Henry	BN2
101	Darren Sproles	BN2
102	Donnie Avery	BN2
105	Shonn Greene	BN2
106	Brett Favre	BN2
107	Willis McGahee	BN2
108	Leon Washington	BN2

QB Ranks
Fantasy Football Sleepers 1
Flex Ranks
WR2 Results
WR1 Results
RB1 Results
RB2 Results
12-team PPR draft results