Rays: Crucial moves on deck for Rays

Rays: Crucial moves on deck for Rays: "There were indications that veteran reliever Dan Miceli may be released - at a cost of $850,000 - to create a 40-man roster spot, and that the final job among the position players could come down to a choice between former frontliners Jorge Cantu and Jonny Gomes."

Was Jerry Crasnick misinformed! If it is Cantu, then expect a big SB season from BJ Upton.

Tony Sipp

Drew's Comeback Could Start With Tribe by Jim Ingraham:"Lefty Tony Sipp has not pitched in several days due to some soreness in his left elbow. Atkins said it's 50-50 whether Sipp will be ready for the start of the season."

So much for the possibility of him being taken in AL-only minor league drafts. Sore elbows for relief prospects are not worth the risk and wait.

Matt Moses

Jim Souhan: Castillo will beat you 'til it hurts: "This is the last year of Castillo's four-year contract. He'll make $5.75 million, then become a free agent.

By next season, top infield prospect Alexi Casilla could replace Castillo at second, or perhaps, with a big year, third baseman Matt Moses could move to the big leagues and allow Nick Punto to shift to second or return to a utility role."

Alex Casilla isn't an unknown any longer, but watch Moses. The Twins' infield ranks amongst the worst from second to third. Their OF is also poor. If 3B Matt Moses does well in AAA and the Twins' offense struggles, do not be surprised to see Moses get a shot to add 10+ HR power to the line-up.

Andy LaRoche

Reinforcements needed for Freeway Series - Los Angeles Times: "LaRoche came into spring training hoping to battle Wilson Betemit at third base but mostly battled himself. He has made seven errors, is batting .180 and will begin the season at Las Vegas."

Andy LaRoche earned his trip back to AAA.

James Loney

Loney, La Roche likely headed to minors - Los Angeles Times: "Barring a last-minute change of heart by the front office, Loney and La Roche will return to the minors, team sources said. Although the primary reason is that veterans are standing in their way, they might as well try to become proficient outfielders while waiting their turn"

Geez this is like Joel Guzman all over again. Except Loney has killed the ball.

Joe Blanton

Gaudin is sharp as a starter / Right-hander still unlikely to get spot in rotation: " No. 4 starter Joe Blanton pitched in a Triple-A game against the Cubs and allowed seven hits and two runs, one earned, in six innings. He struck out five and walked none. "

The five strikeouts caught my attention. Blanton barely struck out 100 last year. In the Spring games that count, he struck out 12 in 13 innings. Unfortunately, he got hit around badly.

Brandon Morrow

Mark Patrick, Orestes Destrade and Buck Mmartinez of Baseball This Morning on XM Radio are assuming Mariners' prospect Brandon Morrow will go Northwest with the club. He is a definite pitcher to draft for $5-$10.

Armando Benitez

ContraCostaTimes.com | 03/27/2007 | 'Not a joke': Benitez likely to close: "Benitez completed his stunning spring transformation, stranding three inherited runners in the eighth inning and then pitching a perfect ninth to save the Giants' 3-2 exhibition victory over the Chicago White Sox.
'He's a true closer,' catcher Bengie Molina said. 'He's not a joke"

The Brian Wilson Era is delayed.

Tampa Closer

ESPN.com: SPORTSNATION - Chat-15140(Insider): "Jerry Crasnick: Erich,

I actually checked with a Devil Rays person today and was told it's probably going to be Dan Miceli to start the season. If you're looking to add a D-Rays closer, your fantasy team is in trouble. "

Fool me once ($18 on Dan Miceli last year), shame on you. Fool me twice....

Devil Rays Closer

Rays: Gomes hitting way back into running for roster: "NOT CLOSING TIME: With the closer spot unsettled, Maddon said he would go back to last year's system of having no set closer to open the season.
'I'm going to do what we did last year pretty much, kinda like mix and match in the beginning,' he said. 'And if someone wants that job, it's theirs to be had. Go out and take it. It's there. But nobody is going to be named that prior to going into the season. I haven't seen that animal yet.'"

Spend accordingly.

Edgar Gonzalez

Ready for the rotation?: "He commands the bottom of the strike zone with good movement on all of his pitches,' Price said. 'He gets a lot of ground balls. He throws a lot of strikes and doesn't get in trouble with the walks. And stays out of the middle of the plate.'"

The D'backs Edgar Gonzalez is one of the few starting pitchers that I like as a sleeper candidate. He pitched very well late last season and has carried it over this spring. For a dollar or two, I see little risk. Just be prepared to cut bait if he doesn't work out.

Here is a link to what I wrote for Fake Teams in February.

Travis Buck

FOX Sports - MLB - Several teams interested in Arizona's Julio: "The A's are content with their outfield despite injuries to Mark Kotsay and Bobby Kielty. Travis Buck, the team's supplemental first-round pick in 2005, has emerged as a viable option if further needs arise.
Buck, 23, has only 212 at-bats above Class A, and the A's only will promote him if they plan to play him every day. That moment could occur sooner than the team initially expected: Buck is batting .366 this spring."

With the non-descriptness of the A's OF outside of Nick Swisher, expect to see Buck emerge as a sleeper. He's got great doubles production in the minors so he could develop 20 HR power. Even if he didn't, 10 HR power makes him a better power hitter than Shannon Stewart, Bobby Kielty and Mark Kotsay.

Alberto Callaspo

Johnson sharp in 'B' game: "Alberto Callaspo saw his first action in the outfield, playing left field in the 'B' game. Callaspo, who will fill a utility role, has had a terrific camp, hitting .438 in 48 at-bats and showing an ability to adapt to any position.


With an all right-handed hitting outfield, Callaspo, a switch-hitter, could start occasionally in left field against tough right-handed pitchers."

Callaspo is slowing moving-up my sleeper list. With Dave Krynzel and Scott Hairston along with their catchers, Miguel Montero and Chris Snyder, I think the DBacks are going to be one of the top sources of NL sleepers.

Brandon Morrow

Mariners | M's Notebook | To Morrow, it's big-league dreams | Seattle Times Newspaper: "Mariners manager Mike Hargrove is debating the once remote possibility of adding Morrow to the team's opening-day bullpen. It would be a highly unusual move for a pitcher with limited Class A experience, who is still being groomed as a future starter. "

With JJ Putz's arm scare (he seems fine right now), Brandon Morrow is a solid bullpen sleeper in 2007. I'd like to believe Bill Bavasi knew this before failing to address his bullpen following the Raphael Soriano trade, but I'm too old to be that rosy-eyed.

Jeremy Hermida

Hermida might miss the opener: South Florida Sun-Sentinel: "Hermida is 2 for 35 (.057) with seven walks and 11 strikeouts in Grapefruit League play. If he isn't healthy enough to amass another 20 or so at-bats before camp breaks, the Marlins likely will open the season on April 2 in Washington with Joe Borchard or Cody Ross in right field."

Hermida is slowing slipping towards....busting. He's too young to write-off, so I will say he's falling to sinlge-digit draft salary. That makes him a big time sleeper.

Macier Izturis

The Official Site of Major League Baseball: News: Major League Baseball News: "The Angels will be without third baseman Chone Figgins for five to six weeks after fractures were found in his right middle finger and right index finger on Friday. "

With Figgins out for the first month od the season, back-up 3B Macier Izturis becomes a great play. With fullt-ime work, I wouldn't be surprised to see Izturis steal five bases in April. Given the lack of SBs in the AL, any player who does that has big value.

More McCutchen

FOX Sports - MLB - Top 100 prospects for '07: 1-10: "5. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pirates
Age: 20
Acquired: 1st round, 2005, Fort Meade HS (Fort Meade, FL)
McCutchen's a career .298 hitter in the minors with speed on the bases, exceptional command of the strike zone and perhaps the quickest bat of any prospect this side of Delmon Young and Alex Gordon. Once he settles in at the highest level, he'll be an annual threat to go 20-20 and provide top-shelf defense in center. "

He is still in camp entering the last weekend of the Spring. With Duffy and McLouth struggling, the Pirates couldn't possibly take him north, could they?

Rays: Rocco: 'I can't tell anymore'

Rays: Rocco: 'I can't tell anymore': "Even if Baldelli does recover quickly, the Rays are likely to handle him with care and rest him often. 'I would rather have Rocco for 135 or 140 games than none,' Maddon said."


I still like Rocco for a double digits HRs & SB season, but, if Maddon holds true, then Rocco is no longer at high $20s draftee in AL-only keeper leagues. Temper your expectations.

Pence's stint in majors over ... for now | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle

Pence's stint in majors over ... for now | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle: "Pence will play all three outfield positions in Round Rock, but he will get most of his time in center field."


I can't imagine Biggio being relegated to the bench after his 70th hit this season, but it is clear the Astros want Pence to be ready to play centerfield. He's likely going to be the #1 overall pick in my NL-only keeper league's minor league draft.

Mariners | M's Notebook | Up early, out early — Weaver is hit hard | Seattle Times Newspaper

Mariners | M's Notebook | Up early, out early — Weaver is hit hard | Seattle Times Newspaper: "Ben Broussard went 3 for 3 with three singles in making his seventh start of the spring in right field. Broussard hopes to be the backup at first base, left field and right field this season, though he could be traded before the opener. A source in the Giants' camp said San Francisco's front office still can't make up its mind whether to give up RHP Armando Benitez, a potential Mariners target."

Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen still in Pirates' big-league camp: "'He's done a fantastic job,' general manager Dave Littlefield said. 'He's certainly advanced and continues to open our eyes. It appears he's not that far away from being a major-league player. "

With Chris Duffy struggling so far and Nate McLouth being Nate McLouth, (I know, the same can be said of Duffy.) McCutchen may be up soon enough to be a fantasy contributor versus a September recall.

Keep an eye on him.

2007 AL Bullpens

The bullpens are more important than the starting rotations in 4x4 Rotisserie. Given 40% or so of the jobs will turn over, watching the back-up closers is of utmost strategic importance. Even if you punt saves on draft day, you must trawl for saves intra-season to get a handful of points.

PITCHERS		Team	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP	K:BB
"Nathan	Joe"	MIN	7	36	95	1.580	0.790	5.94
"Putz	J.J."	SEA	4	36	104	2.298	0.919	8.00
"Ryan	B.J."	TOR	2	38	86	1.369	0.857	4.30
"Rivera	Mariano"	NYY	5	34	55	1.800	0.960	5.00
"Rodriguez	Francisco"	LAA	2	47	98	1.726	1.096	3.50
"Street	Huston"	OAK	4	37	67	3.311	1.090	5.15
"Ray	Chris"	BAL	4	33	51	2.727	1.091	1.89
"Gagne	Eric"	TEX	0	1	3	0.000	0.500	3.00
"Jenks	Bobby"	CHW	3	41	80	4.005	1.392	2.58
"Jones	Todd"	DET	2	37	28	3.938	1.266	2.55
"Borowski	Joe"	CLE	3	36	64	3.746	1.378	1.94
"Pineiro	Joel"	BOS	8	1	87	6.356	1.648	1.36
"McClung	Seth"	TB	6	6	59	6.291	1.825	0.87
"Dotel	Octavio"	KC	0	0	7	10.800	2.900	0.64
"Otsuka	Akinori"	TEX	2	32	47	2.112	1.073	4.27
"Shields	Scot"	LAA	7	2	84	2.875	1.072	3.50
"Duchscherer	Justin"	OAK	2	9	51	2.910	1.096	5.67
"MacDougal	Mike"	CHW	1	1	21	1.552	0.931	3.50
"Zumaya	Joel"	DET	6	1	97	1.944	1.176	2.31
"League	Brandon"	TOR	1	1	29	2.531	1.008	3.22
"Rincon	Juan"	MIN	3	1	65	2.906	1.345	2.71
"Timlin	Mike"	BOS	6	9	30	4.359	1.469	1.88
"Farnsworth	Kyle"	NYY	3	6	75	4.364	1.364	2.68
"Nelson	Joe"	KC	1	9	44	4.433	1.366	1.83
"Tavarez	Julian"	BOS	5	1	56	4.470	1.561	1.27
"Hernandez	Roberto"	CLE	0	2	48	3.110	1.461	1.50
"Mastny	Thomas"	CLE	0	5	14	5.510	1.531	1.75
"Reitsma	Chris"	SEA	1	8	13	8.679	1.929	1.63

The Next Jonathan Broxton?

The Dodgers have another fire-balling middle reliever named "Jonathan" in the minors who may follow Broxton this year - Jonathan Meloan. He struck out 91 across 52 minor league innings in 2006. He finshed at AA where he k'ed 23 in 10.2 IPs. More dramatically stated, that would be 23 strikeouts out of the 32 outs recorded. 72%! He is worth watching.

2007 NL-Only OF Rankings - Top Half

Carlos Lee sits atop the NL-only OF rankings thanks to his across-the-board quality performance in 2006. He ranked in at least the 86th percentile in each category amongst his OF peers. His 19 SBs ranked in the 89th! I know other fantasy experts a reporting Lee is being taken too high, but you have to wonder if they are under-estimating Lee's numbers.



FWIW, keep in mind that the 75th percentile in SBs is 10. This means the vast majority of NL outfielders did not provide SBs. If you eliminate those OF with fewer than 12 SBs, there remains just eleven players.

Rank	Player	Team	HR	RBI	AVG	SB
1	LEE CARLOS	HOU	0.300	37	116	19
2	HOLLIDAY MATT	COL	0.326	34	114	10
3	SORIANO ALFONSO	WAS	0.277	46	95	41
4	BAY JASON	PIT	0.286	35	109	11
5	BELTRAN CARLOS	NYM	0.275	41	116	18
6	BERKMAN LANCE	HOU	0.315	45	136	3
7	JONES JACQUE	CHC	0.285	27	81	9
8	CAMERON MIKE	SD	0.268	22	83	25
9	BYRNES ERIC	ARZ	0.267	26	79	25
10	HAWPE BRAD	COL	0.293	22	84	5
11	ENCARNACION JUAN	STL	0.278	19	79	6
12	KEARNS AUSTIN	WAS	0.264	24	86	9
13	JONES ANDRUW	ATL	0.262	41	129	4
14	ALOU MOISES	SF	0.301	22	74	2
15	WILSON PRESTON	STL	0.263	17	72	12
16	DUNN ADAM	CIN	0.234	40	92	7
17	DEROSA MARK	CHC	0.296	13	74	4
18	MURTON MATT	CHC	0.297	13	62	5
19	ETHIER ANDRE	LA	0.308	11	55	5
20	GILES BRIAN	SD	0.263	14	83	9
21	BONDS BARRY	SF	0.270	26	77	3
22	WILLINGHAM JOSH	FLA	0.277	26	74	2
23	CHAVEZ ENDY	NYM	0.306	4	42	12
24	NADY XAVIER	PIT	0.280	17	63	3
25	GREEN SHAWN	NYM	0.277	15	66	4
26	PIERRE JUAN	CHC	0.292	3	40	58
27	JENKINS GEOFF	MLW	0.271	17	70	4
28	ROBERTS DAVE	SD	0.293	2	44	49
29	BURKE CHRIS	HOU	0.276	9	40	11
30	ANDERSON MARLON	LA	0.297	12	38	4
31	WINN RANDY	SF	0.262	11	56	10
32	ROWAND AARON	PHI	0.262	12	47	10
33	FRANCOEUR JEFF	ATL	0.260	29	103	1
34	DIAZ MATT	ATL	0.327	7	32	5
35	EDMONDS JIM	STL	0.257	19	70	4
36	DAVANON JEFF	ARZ	0.290	5	35	10
37	FREEL RYAN	CIN	0.271	8	27	37
38	VICTORINO SHANE	PHI	0.287	6	46	4
39	SCOTT LUKE	HOU	0.336	10	37	2
40	BURRELL PAT	PHI	0.258	29	95	0
41	CHURCH RYAN	WAS	0.276	10	35	6
42	DUNCAN CHRIS	STL	0.293	22	43	0
43	HART COREY	MLW	0.283	9	33	5

2007 NL-Only Rankings - Bottom Half

As with the AL-only rankings, use these to determine which players may be undervalued on draft day. Amongst my favorites are Jeff Baker, Nook Logan, Chris Duffy and Chris Snelling.



There is no way Willy Taveras is a worse 4x4 player than Jeff Conine. But note two things. Conine produced very nicely in his utility role last season between Baltimore and Philadelphia. With Rich Aurilia gone, I expect Conine to eat those 1B Abs and get OF ones along with regular pinch-hitting when not at 1B and OF. Second, Taveras' HR and RBI are so low that they are negatives in 4x4. If his AVG slips in Colorado - possible given lack of BBs and doubles and triples, he will be officially the Adam Dunn of SBs!

Rank	Player	Team	HR	RBI	AVG	SB
44	CONINE JEFF	CIN	0.268	10	66	3
45	TAVERAS WILLY	COL	0.278	1	30	33
46	GONZALEZ LUIS	ARZ	0.271	15	73	0
47	MENCH KEVIN	MLW	0.269	13	68	1
48	FLOYD CLIFF	NYM	0.244	11	44	6
49	SPIEZIO SCOTT	STL	0.272	13	52	1
50	GRIFFEY JR. KEN	CIN	0.252	27	72	0
51	BAKER JEFF	COL	0.368	5	21	2
52	SPILBORGHS RYAN	COL	0.287	4	21	5
53	FINLEY STEVE	SF	0.246	6	40	7
54	BAUTISTA JOSE	PIT	0.235	16	51	2
55	TAGUCHI SO	STL	0.266	2	31	11
56	WILSON CRAIG	ATL	0.251	17	49	1
57	ESCOBAR ALEX	WAS	0.356	4	18	2
58	SULLIVAN CORY	COL	0.267	2	30	10
59	AMEZAGA ALFREDO	FLA	0.260	3	19	20
60	GROSS GABE	MLW	0.274	9	38	1
61	KEMP MATT	LA	0.253	7	23	6
62	BRANYAN RUSSELL	SD	0.228	18	36	2
63	DUFFY CHRIS	PIT	0.255	2	18	26
64	MCLOUTH NATE	PIT	0.233	7	16	10
65	REPKO JASON	LA	0.254	3	16	10
66	LANE JASON	HOU	0.201	15	45	1
67	ROSS CODY	FLA	0.227	13	46	1
68	CLARK BRADY	MLW	0.263	4	29	3
69	HERMIDA JEREMY	FLA	0.251	5	28	4
70	LOGAN NOOK	WAS	0.300	1	8	2
71	ABERCROMBIE REGGI	FLA	0.212	5	24	6
72	QUENTIN CARLOS	ARZ	0.253	9	32	1
73	RODRIGUEZ JOHN	STL	0.301	2	19	0
74	CRUZ JR. JOSE	LA	0.233	5	17	5
75	HAIRSTON SCOTT	ARZ	0.400	0	2	0
76	JOHNSON BEN	SD	0.250	4	12	3
77	LANGERHANS RYAN	ATL	0.241	7	28	1
78	DENORFIA CHRIS	CIN	0.283	1	7	1
79	BORCHARD JOE	FLA	0.230	10	28	0
80	LINDEN TODD	SF	0.273	2	5	1
81	GWYNN JR. TONY	MLW	0.260	0	4	3
82	SNELLING CHRIS	WAS	0.250	3	8	2
83	MILLEDGE LASTINGS	NYM	0.241	4	22	1
84	THORMAN SCOTT	ATL	0.234	5	14	1
85	YOUNG CHRIS	ARZ	0.243	2	10	2
86	ELLISON JASON	SF	0.222	2	4	2
87	SLEDGE TERRMEL	SD	0.229	2	7	0
88	BOURN MICHAEL	PHI	0.125	0	0	1

2007 AL-Only Rankings

No matter what I try, I cannot get the extreme SB players higher. Thus, you should manually adjut them to the point you like them.

Rank	Player		Pos	AVG	HR	RBI	SB
1	GUERRERO	VLADIMIR	ANA	0.329	33	116	15
2	WELLS	VERNON	TOR	0.303	32	106	17
3	CRAWFORD	CARL	TB	0.305	18	77	58
4	ABREU	BOBBY	NYY	0.297	15	107	30
5	RIOS	ALEX	TOR	0.302	17	82	15
6	SIZEMORE	GRADY	CLE	0.29	28	76	22
7	DAMON	JOHNNY	NYY	0.285	24	80	25
8	DYE	JERMAINE	CWS	0.315	44	120	7
9	HUNTER	TORII	MIN	0.278	31	98	12
10	RAMIREZ	MANNY	BOS	0.321	35	102	0
11	SUZUKI	ICHIRO	SEA	0.322	9	49	45
12	IBANEZ	RAUL	SEA	0.289	33	123	2
13	ORDONEZ	MAGGLIO	DET	0.298	24	104	1
14	RIVERA	JUAN	ANA	0.31	23	85	0
15	MATTHEWS	GARY	TEX	0.313	19	79	10
16	PATTERSON	COREY	BAL	0.276	16	53	45
17	CUDDYER	MICHAEL	MIN	0.284	24	109	6
18	FIGGINS	CHONE	ANA	0.267	9	62	52
19	DREW	J.D.	BOS	0.283	20	100	2
20	BALDELLI	ROCCO	TB	0.302	16	57	10
21	LOFTON	KENNY	TEX	0.301	3	41	32
22	SWISHER	NICK	OAK	0.254	35	95	1
23	BROWN	EMIL	KC	0.287	15	81	6
24	DEROSA	MARK	TEX	0.296	13	74	4
25	BLAKE	CASEY	CLE	0.282	19	68	6
26	ANDERSON	GARRET	ANA	0.28	17	85	1
27	MARKAKIS	NICK	BAL	0.291	16	62	2
28	JOHNSON	REED	TOR	0.319	12	49	8
29	MONROE	CRAIG	DET	0.255	28	92	2
30	CABRERA	MELKY	NYY	0.28	7	50	12
31	NORTON	GREG	TB	0.296	17	45	1
32	PAYTON	JAY	OAK	0.296	10	59	8
33	HUFF	AUBREY	BAL	0.267	21	66	0
34	GRANDERSON	CURTIS	DET	0.26	19	68	8
35	THAMES	MARCUS	DET	0.256	26	60	1
36	WILLIAMS	BERNIE	NYY	0.281	12	61	2
37	CRISP	COCO	BOS	0.264	8	36	22
38	PENA	WILY	MO	BOS	0.301	11	42	0

2007 AL OF Ranks - Bottom Half

These ranks are based solely on the player's 2006 numbers. As a result, you will see players who are very obviously under-ranked. I decided to leave them as they are because their lack of 2006 production make them "sleeper" candidates under the defition of being under-valued. Does anyone doubt Gary Sheffield will go for less than he would have had he not been injured last year?



There are many players in this list that are true sleepers under the definition of significantly out-performing anything they had produced in 2006 i.e Reggie Willits or Lew Ford.



The top half will be posted later today or first thing tomorrow morning.

Rank	Player	Pos	AVG	HR	RBI	SB
39	DEJESUS DAVID	KC	0.295	8	56	6
40	CATALANOTTO FRANK	TEX	0.3	7	56	1
41	PODSEDNIK SCOTT	CWS	0.261	3	45	40
42	DELLUCCI DAVID	CLE	0.292	13	39	1
43	BRADLEY MILTON	OAK	0.276	14	52	10
44	MATSUI HIDEKI	NYY	0.302	8	29	1
45	GIBBONS JAY	BAL	0.277	13	46	0
46	GERMAN ESTEBAN	KC	0.326	3	34	7
47	MICHAELS JASON	CLE	0.267	9	55	9
48	KOTSAY MARK	OAK	0.275	7	59	6
49	GATHRIGHT JOEY	KC	0.238	1	41	22
50	NIXON TROT	CLE	0.268	8	52	0
51	HINSKE ERIC	BOS	0.271	13	34	2
52	OZUNA PABLO	CWS	0.328	2	17	6
53	SHEFFIELD GARY	DET	0.298	6	25	5
54	YOUNG DELMON	TB	0.317	3	10	2
55	SANDERS REGGIE	KC	0.246	11	49	7
56	WILKERSON BRAD	TEX	0.222	15	44	3
57	KIELTY BOBBY	OAK	0.27	8	36	2
58	TYNER JASON	MIN	0.312	0	18	4
59	MACKOWIAK ROB	CWS	0.29	5	23	5
60	BLOOMQUIST WILLIE	SEA	0.247	1	15	16
61	STEWART SHANNON	FA	0.293	2	21	3
62	CHOO SHIN-SOO	CLE	0.28	3	22	5
63	WHITE RONDELL	MIN	0.246	7	38	1
64	GUILLEN JOSE	SEA	0.216	9	40	1
65	KUBEL JASON	MIN	0.241	8	26	2
66	ANDERSON BRIAN N.	CWS	0.225	8	33	4
67	GUZMAN FREDDY	TEX	0.286	0	0	0
68	CRUZ NELSON	TEX	0.223	6	22	1
69	FORD LEW	MIN	0.226	4	18	9
70	BYRD MARLON	TEX	0.223	5	18	3
71	REED JEREMY	SEA	0.217	6	17	2
72	WILLITS REGGIE	ANA	0.267	0	2	4
73	FIORENTINO JEFF	BAL	0.256	0	7	1
74	MURPHY DAVID	BOS	0.227	1	2	0
75	SWEENEY RYAN	CWS	0.229	0	5	0
76	JONES ADAM	SEA	0.216	1	8	3
77	HAIRSTON JERRY	TEX	0.206	0	10	5
78	ERSTAD DARIN	CWS	0.221	0	5	1
79	STERN ADAM	BOS	0.15	0	4	1

Brewers 3B

Tom Hardencourt just told Charlie Steiner on XM Radio's The Beat that the Brewers are not hearing good things about Corey Koskie. If Koskie isn't ready to go, and that is my guess, then Tony Graffanino and Craig Counsell will platoon at 3B. Counsell has the good side of that platoon and should be considered an excellent sleeper for steals. Graffanino is also a good $1 player as someone has to back-up the middle infield when Counsell starts at 3B.

Josh Johnson

Josh Johnson is a $15-$20 starting pitcher in 4x4 following last year's performance, but he has a new injury. This has caution flags waiving everywhere. To think I was close to dealing Freddie Sanchez for him until the other team got cold feet!




MiamiHerald.com | 01/30/2007 | Pitchers Sanchez, Johnson slowed by sore arms: "Johnson, who went 12-7 last year in his rookie season, has shut down his throwing program after experiencing pain in his lower biceps, near his right elbow. But the Marlins didn't think it serious enough to order an MRI, and he is optimistic he will be able to resume throwing in the not-too-distant future.

''I might be a little behind. We'll see,'' Johnson said. ``It depends on how fast this goes away. They [the training staff] say it's tough to tell.''

Johnson said he doesn't think the injury, which he first felt about a week ago, is related to the strained right forearm he sustained after returning from a lengthy rain delay against the Mets on Sept. 12. "

2007 NL SS Rankings

There is excellent depth in the National league at the SS position. Any of the top 5 would satisfy a team's SB need. Bill Hall provides a HR level one would expect from a $30 OF. With that glamor, the next five or six will fall by the wayside. Those after that are likely to be quality value picks in the sub-$10 range.

Rank	Player	Team	AVG	HR	RBI	SB
1	REYES JOSE	NYM	0.300	19	81	64
2	RAMIREZ HANLEY	FLA	0.292	17	59	51
3	ROLLINS JIMMY	PHI	0.277	25	83	36
4	FURCAL RAFAEL	LA	0.300	15	63	37
5	LOPEZ FELIPE	WAS	0.274	11	52	44
6	HALL BILL	MLW	0.270	35	85	8
7	RENTERIA EDGAR	ATL	0.293	14	70	17
8	AURILIA RICH	SF	0.300	23	70	3
9	SANCHEZ FREDDY	PIT	0.344	6	85	3
10	DREW STEPHEN	ARZ	0.316	5	23	2
11	VIZQUEL OMAR	SF	0.295	4	58	24
12	TULOWITZKI TROY	COL	0.240	1	6	3
15	GONZALEZ ALEX	CIN	0.255	9	50	1
13	GREENE KHALIL	SD	0.245	15	55	5
14	HARDY J.J.	MLW	0.242	5	14	1
17	ECKSTEIN DAVID	STL	0.292	2	23	7
16	COUNSELL CRAIG	MLW	0.255	4	30	15
18	IZTURIS CESAR	CHC	0.245	1	18	1
19	EVERETT ADAM	HOU	0.239	6	59	9
20	CEDENO RONNY	CHC	0.245	6	41	8
21	CALLASPO ALBERTO	ARZ	0.238	0	6	0
22	BARMES CLINT	COL	0.220	7	56	5
23	MILES AARON	STL	0.263	2	30	2
24	EASLEY DAMION	NYM	0.233	9	28	1
25	CASTRO JUAN	CIN	0.251	3	28	1
26	BLUM GEOFF	SD	0.254	4	34	0

2007 AL SS Rankings

The AL SS ranks do not provide a whole lot of depth. After Orlando Cabrera, there are flawed players - Juan Uribe low AVG, Bobby Crosby's lack of health - and ones who just don't provide much i.e. Aaron Hill. And I know some would throw Cabrera into the flawed bunch, too - one category (SB) and a ton of propsects behind him (Erick Aybar, Brandon Wood and Sean Rodriguez.)

The sleepers in this group are Jason Bartlett, who should be able to get upwards of 20 SBs with a 5-10 HRs, a sort of Nick Punto with "pop", and Ben Zobrist, who could do the same. But sleepers who aspire to .300/5/50/20? Proof of a lack of depth!

Rank	Player	Team	AVG	HR	RBI	SB
1	JETER DEREK	NYY	0.343	14	97	34
2	GUILLEN CARLOS	DET	0.320	19	85	20
3	TEJADA MIGUEL	BAL	0.330	24	100	6
4	YOUNG MICHAEL	TEX	0.314	14	103	7
5	LUGO JULIO	BOS	0.278	12	37	24
6	CABRERA ORLANDO	ANA	0.282	9	72	27
7	URIBE JUAN	CWS	0.235	21	71	1
8	CROSBY BOBBY	OAK	0.229	9	40	8
9	PERALTA JHONNY	CLE	0.257	13	68	0
10	BETANCOURT YUNIES	SEA	0.289	8	47	11
11	BARTLETT JASON	MIN	0.309	2	32	10
12	PUNTO NICK	MIN	0.290	1	45	17
13	HILL AARON	TOR	0.291	6	50	5
14	BERROA ANGEL	KC	0.234	9	54	3
15	ZOBRIST BEN	TB	0.224	2	18	2
16	CLAYTON ROYCE	CIN	0.258	2	40	14
17	LUNA HECTOR	CLE	0.286	6	38	5
18	SCUTARO MARCOS	OAK	0.266	5	41	5
19	AYBAR ERICK	ANA	0.250	0	2	1
20	ARIAS JOAQUIN	TEX	0.545	0	1	0
21	GONZALEZ ALEX	KC	0.111	0	1	0
22	ADAMS RUSS	TOR	0.219	3	28	1
23	SANTIAGO RAMON	DET	0.225	0	3	2
24	MCDONALD JOHN	TOR	0.223	3	23	7
25	CORA ALEX	BOS	0.238	1	18	6
26	PEREZ NEIFI	DET	0.243	2	29	1

Alex Gordon Projection

This is excerpted from Tristan Cockcroft's fantasy baseball chat this morning.

ESPN.com: SPORTSNATION:
"What numbers do you see for Alex Gordon? Seems like a sure fire stud.

Tristan H. Cockcroft: Again, exercise caution. Gordon's indeed a surefire stud, but as with all rookies, he's risky. I think the third base job will be his to lose this spring, and if he can get in 150 games, Gordon should be expected to manage around a .280 batting average, 25 homers, 80 RBI. But as I said, be careful, because hype can be a bad thing for fantasy sometimes. "

2007 NL 3B Rankings

The 3B pool in the NL is a deep one. The top ones will not hurt in AVG and provide solid 20/80 power. I am very comfortable ignoring this position and gambling on any of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Wilson Betemit, Andy LaRoche (if he is draftable), Wes Helms and even Tony Graffanino.

Rank	NL-only		AVG	HR	RBI	SB
1	ATKINS GARRETT	COL	0.329	29	120	4
2	CABRERA MIGUEL	FLA	0.339	26	114	9
3	WRIGHT DAVID	NYM	0.311	26	116	20
4	RAMIREZ ARAMIS	CHC	0.291	38	119	2
5	JONES CHIPPER	ATL	0.324	26	86	6
6	ROLEN SCOTT	STL	0.296	22	95	7
7	ZIMMERMAN RYAN	WAS	0.287	20	110	11
8	AURILIA RICH	CIN	0.300	23	70	3
9	TRACY CHAD	ARZ	0.281	20	80	5
10	SANCHEZ FREDDY	PIT	0.344	6	85	3
11	DEROSA MARK	CHC	0.296	13	74	4
12	FELIZ PEDRO	SF	0.244	22	98	1
13	ENCARNACION EDWIN	CIN	0.276	15	72	6
14	HELMS WES	PHI	0.329	10	47	0
15	ENSBERG MORGAN	HOU	0.235	23	58	1
16	KOUZMANOFF KEVIN	SD	0.214	3	11	0
17	LAMB MIKE	HOU	0.307	12	45	2
18	BETEMIT WILSON	LA	0.263	18	53	3
19	BELL DAVID	MLW	0.270	10	63	3
20	SPIEZIO SCOTT	STL	0.272	13	52	1
21	WALKER TODD	SD	0.278	9	53	2
22	GRAFFANINO TONY	MLW	0.274	7	59	5
23	CIRILLO JEFF	MLW	0.319	3	23	1
24	BAUTISTA JOSE	PIT	0.235	16	51	2
25	BRANYAN RUSSELL	SD	0.228	18	36	2
26	KOSKIE COREY	MLW	0.261	12	33	1
27	AYBAR WILLY	ATL	0.280	4	30	1
28	BOONE AARON	FLA	0.251	7	46	5
29	IZTURIS CESAR	CHC	0.245	1	18	1
	ANDY LAROCHE

2007 AL 3B Rankings

The Al has a generally weak class of 3B. ARod is elite, but, after him, there isn't a solid across-the-categories player to be had. The rankings reflect this. Mariners 3B Adrian Beltre could fit the bill if he continues to steal bases and doesn't start off so poorly that his value is only in SBs! The big question in this group if whether or not Royals 3B continues to produce like he did post-recall. If he does, then he will be a lock for the #2 overall 3B. At the end of this list is a sleeper in Devil Rays 3B Joel Guzman. If he makes the team, he is a great player to get for a $1 at the end of the draft.

Rank	Player	Team	AVG	HR	RBI	SB
1	RODRIGUEZ ALEX	NYY	0.29	35	121	15
2	FIGGINS CHONE	ANA	0.267	9	62	52
3	BELTRE ADRIAN	SEA	0.268	25	89	11
4	GLAUS TROY	TOR	0.252	38	104	3
5	MORA MELVIN	BAL	0.274	16	83	11
6	CREDE JOE	CWS	0.283	30	94	0
7	TEAHEN MARK	KC	0.29	18	69	10
8	INGE BRANDON	DET	0.253	27	83	7
9	LOWELL MIKE	BOS	0.284	20	80	2
10	HUFF AUBREY	BAL	0.267	21	66	0
11	BLALOCK HANK	TEX	0.266	16	89	1
12	CHAVEZ ERIC	OAK	0.241	22	72	3
13	MARTE ANDY	CLE	0.226	5	23	0
14	HILLENBRAND SHEA	ANA	0.277	21	68	1
15	WIGGINTON TY	TB	0.275	24	79	4
16	PUNTO NICK	MIN	0.29	1	45	17
17	UPTON B.J.	TB	0.246	1	10	11
18	GERMAN ESTEBAN	KC	0.326	3	34	7
19	MCPHERSON DALLAS	ANA	0.261	7	13	1
20	IZTURIS MAICER	ANA	0.293	5	44	14
21	GUZMAN JOEL	TB	0.211	0	3	0
22	FIELDS JOSH	CWS	0.15	1	2	0

2007 NL 2B Rankings

Chase Utley has become an elite level player. The fact he plays 2B guarantees he is a first round/$30+ player for the foreseeable future. Keep an eye on Florida's Alfredo Almezaga. He stole 20 last season and should get 300 ABs this year. Ryan Theriot is also going to be a good source of double digit steals for little to no draft dollars i.e picked-up post-draft from the pool. Pineilla likes to run.

Rank	Name	Team
1	UTLEY CHASE	PHI
2	PHILLIPS BRANDON	CIN
3	DURHAM RAY	SF
4	UGGLA DAN	FLA
5	HUDSON ORLANDO	ARZ
6	WEEKS RICKIE	MLW
7	KENT JEFF	LA
8	BURKE CHRIS	HOU
9	SANCHEZ FREDDY	PIT
10	DEROSA MARK	CHC
11	GILES MARCUS	SD
12	CASTILLO JOSE	PIT
13	BIGGIO CRAIG	HOU
14	VALENTIN JOSE	NYM
15	MATSUI KAZ	COL
16	CARROLL JAMEY	COL
17	AMEZAGA ALFREDO	FLA
18	THERIOT RYAN	CHC
19	GRAFFANINO TONY	MLW
20	BELLIARD RONNIE	FA
21	WALKER TODD	SD
22	LORETTA MARK	HOU
23	ANDERSON MARLON	LA
25	CASTRO BERNIE	WAS
26	MILES AARON	STL
31	WOMACK TONY	WAS
32	PRADO MARTIN	ATL
34	FRANDSEN KEVIN	SF

Scott Thorman

Yesterday's trade of 1B Adam LaRoche to the Pirates opens up the first base job in Atlanta for Scott Thorman. He wasn't ranked in my NL 1B ones. I'd place him at #18 right behind Xavier Nady. LaRoche's value remains unchanged.

2007 AL 2B Rankings

Interestingly, Ian Kinsler ranked quite highly. I expect him to run a little more with new manager Ron Washington at the helm so a 20/20 season is not out of the realm of reasonability. I was also surprised to see Julio Lugo rank so low. If he can get his RBIs up, he should be a Top 5 2B.

Rank	AL-only	Team
1	ROBERTS BRIAN	BAL
2	CANO ROBINSON	NYY
3	IGUCHI TADAHITO	CWS
4	KINSLER IAN	TEX
5	BARFIELD JOSH	SD
6	CASTILLO LUIS	MIN
7	LOPEZ JOSE	SEA
8	LUGO JULIO	BOS
9	KENDRICK HOWIE	ANA
10	CANTU JORGE	TB
11	HILL AARON	TOR
12	WIGGINTON TY	TB
13	PUNTO NICK	MIN
14	POLANCO PLACIDO	DET
15	VIDRO JOSE	WAS
16	GRUDZIELANEK MARK	KC
17	ELLIS MARK	OAK
18	PEDROIA DUSTIN	BOS
19	GERMAN ESTEBAN	KC
20	CINTRON ALEX	CWS
21	BELLIARD RONNIE	FA
22	SCUTARO MARCOS	OAK
23	HAIRSTON JERRY	TEX
24	CASILLA ALEXI	MIN
25	ADAMS RUSS	TOR

2007 NL 1B Rankings

Lots of depth in NL 1B. As far down as Xavier Nady and Wes Helms provides good production. Watch Nick Johnson's recovery fro his broken leg. If he isn't going to be ready until mid-season, downgrade him slightly. However, be pepared to grab him on the cheap as he should be a good mid-season addition.

Rank	NL-only	Team
1	PUJOLS ALBERT	STL
2	HOWARD RYAN	PHI
3	BERKMAN LANCE	HOU
4	LEE DERREK	CHC
5	GONZALEZ ADRIAN	SD
6	GARCIAPARRA NOMAR	LA
7	FIELDER PRINCE	MLW
8	LAROCHE ADAM	ATL
9	HELTON TODD	COL
10	DELGADO CARLOS	NYM
11	JOHNSON NICK	WAS
12	JACOBS MIKE	FLA
13	AURILIA RICH	SF
14	JACKSON CONOR	ARZ
15	HATTEBERG SCOTT	CIN
16	HELMS WES	PHI
17	NADY XAVIER	PIT
18	LONEY JAMES	LA
19	DOUMIT RYAN	PIT
20	LAMB MIKE	HOU
21	WALKER TODD	SD
22	CONINE JEFF	CIN
23	SAENZ OLMEDO	LA
24	SWEENEY MARK	SF
25	NIEKRO LANCE	SF
26	HERNANDEZ JOSE	PHI
27	CLARK TONY	ARZ

2007 AL 1B Rankings

There isn't too much surprise here. I re-checked Mark Teixeira with a hypothetical 40 HRs to make-up for his slow start, btu that did not change his #3 ranking. More surprising was the fact his finished with 33 dongs.

If the Devil Rays do not do anything about 1B, I love Ty Wigginton as an under $10 sleeper. Throw-in 3B- and 2B-eligibility, and you have an excellent utlity player.

Rank	Player	Team
1	MORNEAU JUSTIN	MIN
2	KONERKO PAUL	CWS
3	TEIXEIRA MARK	TEX
4	OVERBAY LYLE	TOR
5	MARTINEZ VICTOR	CLE
6	GIAMBI JASON	NYY
7	SWISHER NICK	OAK
8	SEXSON RICHIE	SEA
9	YOUKILIS KEVIN	BOS
10	SHEALY RYAN	KC
11	KENDRICK HOWIE	ANA
12	WIGGINTON TY	TB
13	BROUSSARD BEN	SEA
14	HILLENBRAND SHEA	SF
15	NORTON GREG	TB
16	NEVIN PHIL	MIN
17	CASEY SEAN	DET
18	MILLAR KEVIN	BAL
19	JOHNSON DAN	OAK
20	SHELTON CHRIS	DET
21	GARKO RYAN	CLE
22	MORALES KENDRY	ANA
23	KOTCHMAN CASEY	ANA
24	WILSON CRAIG	NYY
25	MIENTKIEWICZ DOUG	KC
26	PHILLIPS ANDY	NYY
27	QUINLAN ROBB	ANA
28	GLOAD ROSS	CWS
29	GOMEZ CHRIS	BAL
30	PEREZ EDUARDO	SEA
31	LEE TRAVIS	TB
32	PENA CARLOS	BOS

2007 NL Catcher Ratings

The list of NL catchers is topped by the Braves' Brian McCann. He leads a group of very young backstops. 2nd-year man Russell Martin comes in second thanks to his 10 SBs and good, not outstanding, AVG/HR/RBI. Look for Josh Bard to surprise - if he can maintain last year's new-found plate discipline! Chris Coste and Robert Fick are two catcher-eligibles who should hit better than some of their peers and should be looked at as excellent $1 2nd catchers on traditional Rotisserie teams.

Rank	Player	Team
1	MCCANN BRIAN	ATL
2	MARTIN RUSSELL	LA
3	MOLINA BENGIE	SF
4	ESTRADA JOHNNY	MLW
5	OLIVO MIGUEL	FLA
6	BARRETT MICHAEL	CHC
7	LO DUCA PAUL	NYM
8	PAULINO RONNY	PIT
9	ROSS DAVID	CIN
10	IANNETTA CHRIS	COL
11	MONTERO MIGUEL	ARZ
12	BARD JOSH	SD
13	BARAJAS ROD	TEX
14	TORREALBA YORVIT	COL
15	LOPEZ JAVY	COL
16	VALENTIN JAVIER	CIN
17	COSTE CHRIS	PHI
18	SNYDER CHRIS	ARZ
19	FICK ROBERT	WAS
20	SCHNEIDER BRIAN	WAS
21	MOLINA YADIER	STL
22	ALFONZO ELIEZER	SF
23	MILLER DAMIAN	MLW
24	LIEBERTHAL MIKE	PHI
25	CASTRO RAMON	NYM
26	PRATT TODD	ATL
27	BOWEN ROB	SD
28	RUIZ CARLOS	PHI
29	BLANCO HENRY	CHC
30	AUSMUS BRAD	HOU
	QUINTERO HUMBERTO	HOU

2007 AL Catcher Rankings

Thanks to his eight stolen bases, Twins MVP candidate Joe Mauer takes the top spot. Interstingly, there is a lot of depth in the AL as the top nine backstops all had double digit HRs with Mike napoli and Gregg Zaun also reaching that goal.

rank	name		team	hr	rbi	avg	sb
1	MAUER	JOE	MIN	13	84	0.347	8
2	POSADA	JORGE	NYY	23	93	0.277	3
3	RODRIGUEZ	IVAN	DET	13	69	0.300	8
4	JOHJIMA	KENJI	SEA	18	76	0.291	3
5	MARTINEZ	VICTOR	CLE	16	93	0.316	0
6	HERNANDEZ	RAMON	BAL	23	91	0.275	1
7	PIERZYNSKI	A.J.	CWS	16	64	0.295	1
8	PIAZZA	MIKE	SD	22	68	0.283	0
9	VARITEK	JASON	BOS	12	55	0.238	1
9	LAIRD	GERALD	TEX	7	22	0.296	3
11	KENDALL	JASON	OAK	1	50	0.295	11
12	NAPOLI	MIKE	ANA	16	42	0.228	2
13	ZAUN	GREGG	TOR	12	40	0.272	0
14	NAVARRO	DIONER	TB	6	28	0.254	2
15	LARUE	JASON	KC	8	21	0.194	1
17	BUCK	JOHN	KC	11	50	0.245	0
18	SHOPPACH	KELLY	CLE	3	16	0.245	0
38	MATHIS	JEFF	ANA	2	6	0.145	0
19	REDMOND	MIKE	MIN	0	23	0.341	0
21	HALL	TOBY	CWS	8	31	0.259	0
36	PHILLIPS	JASON	TOR	0	6	0.250	0
22	WILSON	VANCE	DET	5	18	0.283	0
23	MOLINA	JOSE	ANA	4	22	0.240	1
23	MIRABELLI	DOUG	BOS	6	25	0.191	0
25	HOUSE	J.R.	BAL	0	0	0.000	0
43	RIGGANS	SHAWN	TB	0	1	0.172	0
29	MELHUSE	ADAM	OAK	4	18	0.219	0

Joel Zumaya Starter?

DREW SHARP: Zumaya a starter? Bet on it

I clicked through to this story after seeing it linked in Buster Olney's blog post. I hadn't heard anything by any Tiger even considering such a move. Nevermind, Zumaya's stated preference for relieving.

However, when I read the article, it was apparent the writer was just making-up a story. To boot, it is a horribly reasoned article.

Throwing heat is harder on the arm than breaking balls?

2007 Guide Update

Back in October, Rotomusing announced that he would produce the first-ever Rotomusing Rotisserie Baseball Guide (to be titled something more "scientific" sounding with an acronym and a sub-title with and acronym!).

Since then, I have developed an outline of what I feel must be covered and have begun addressing some of those areas. Unfortunately, I had enormous impositions by my cash provider (my job), family and illness which has left me much further behind than I had planned.

I wanted it on the market before anyone else's guide in order to take advantage of the thirst for fantasy baseball that occurs following the end of the season. But I believe my perspective is unique and may be able to withstand a mid-season release! (Icarus, don't fly too close to the sun.)

I also have been trying to determine how long it should be. A 200-page book has about 100,000 words. I don't think that is necessary, but one of half that length? A quarter? With team write-ups, there are at least 30 pages if one looks for a page per team so maybe 50 is correct.

Not including the team write-ups, which really do need to be done as late as possible, I am probably a good 20 hours away from what I consider the portion that I want to withstand the test of time.

Nevermind the issue of whether I should sell it and for how much. I'd like your opinions.

(As you can look back and see, I tried to speak in the third person was unable to do so past the first sentence.)

Rule 5 Draft

BaseballAmerica.com: Prospects: Rule 5 Draft Blog

The above is a link to Baseball America's report on the just-completed Rule 5 Draft. The A's have decided that AA OF Ryan Goleski is a good risk to carry on the roster all season long.

If the A's fail to land a LF and do not move nick Swisher there, Goleski may be a $1 flyer at the end of fantasy drafts. His .370 OBP and .528 SLG at AA Akron do bode well.

As for Josh Hamilton, I'd like to see him make the Cubs roster. With big money wrapped up in Soriano, Ramirez, Lee, Jones, DeRosa, there aren't a whole lot of ABs available anyhow. Maybe he could pinch-hit all season and fill-in at 1B and OF every couple weeks?

Joe Borowski

The Indians signed 2006 Marlins closer Joe Borowski. I guess I was premature in labelling Roberto Hernandez this year's Joe Borowski.

Joe Borowski is going to retain his role in 2007.

This year he will either fail or be dealt!

Morgan Ensberg

Given the man-love Houston has for Mike Lamb, the availabilty of 100 Walks 3B Morgan Ensberg should have every major league team conniving of ways to steal him from Phil Garner's team. The Astros are in need of starting pitching behind the $73MM man Roy Oswalt. Couldn't the Angels deal lefty Joe Saunders for Ensberg?

Astros show interest in trade for pitcher Peavy Chron.com - Houston Chronicle: "The Astros have received quite a bit of interest in outfielder Willy Taveras and infielder/outfielder Chris Burke. Third baseman Morgan Ensberg and reliever Brad Lidge also have been mentioned as potential trade bait because the Astros will likely have to move money to re-sign Pettitte or Clemens or add another significant starting pitcher's contract.The Astros have received quite a bit of interest in outfielder Willy Taveras and infielder/outfielder Chris Burke. Third baseman Morgan Ensberg and reliever Brad Lidge also have been mentioned as potential trade bait because the Astros will likely have to move money to re-sign Pettitte or Clemens or add another significant starting pitcher's contract."

Roberto Hernandez

The Indians signed former closer Roberto Hernandez to bolster their bullpen, and, as of now, he is the likely closer entering the 2007 season.

Much can change between now and then, but, on the assumption nothing does, I am reminded of the Joe Borowski signing by the Marlins - a stopgap veteran reliever holding a place until a better option emrges from the current crop of young relievers.

I held fast to the theory that Borowski was the closer until 7/31 when the rebuilding Marlins would flip him for more rebuilding blocks. He never did lose his job, and the Marlins are now without a closer.

The Indians are further along, but I believe Roberto will serve the same purpose. Two situations would alter this. One, the Indians are in serious contention with no obvious pitcher to step-in, and, two, the Indians did deal their one-year stop-gap closer, Bob Wickman, last season and found their young relievers incompetent for the task.

Get ready for a low $20s bid in AL-only keeper leagues.

Brad Hawpe

The Colorado Rockies have decided to take RF Brad Hawpe off the market in their pursuit of starting pitching and middle relief. Whether it is just a negotiating tactic is yet to be seen.

I like the strides Hawpe made last year, in particular his plate discipline. He walked 74 times while hitting .293 for a very nice OBP of .383. He struck out 123 times, though, but that no longer seems a negative nowadays.

The Rox still have RF Jeff Baker, and this decision by the team appears to be one that will hurt the fantasy value of both Hawpe and Baker as one would expect each to take ABs from the other.

On the brighter side, whomever ends up with the player who is the benficiary of the unforseen injury will have a $20 player on their hands.

Danys Baez

Oh, well. Despite his insistency on closing, Danys Baez took the money and will set-up for the Orioles' and Chris Ray.

With a three-year deal in the $15-$18MM range, He demonstrates that what one wants and what one accepts in terms of employment is more dependent on the money you get paid rather than on the ideals you'd prefer in a position.

Baez becomes a $5-$10 draftee based on the obviousness of his back-up closer role, but Ray is amongst the most effective late-inning specialists so he could go for less.

AZ/MLW trade

Milwaukee acquired catcher Johnny Estrada and pitchers Claudio Vargas and Greg Aquino from Arizona for pitchers Doug Davis, Dana Eveland and outfielder David Krynzel.

It seems like an even trade. Doug Davis is the marquee player. And "expensive" one.

The Brewers needed some youth at catcher, and Estrada, even at 30, qualifies when the starter is 37-year-old Damian Miller.

Maybe Mike Maddux can help Caludio Vargas and Greg Aquino acquire consistency to match their flashes of potential.

Eveland is a lefty waiting for his first 162-game major league season. By 2010, he may be the only one amongst the dealt players still on their respective teams.

Poor Dave Krynzel.

Really?

Matthews is the centerpiece - Los Angeles Times: "Matthews, a 32-year-old switch-hitter, was a career .249 hitter with a .324 on-base percentage and .397 slugging percentage for the first six years of an undistinguished big league career in which he played for seven organizations, was claimed on waivers three times, traded three times and released once."

I want to believe this information isn't indicative of future performance, but I can't.

I received an offer yesterday in my AL-only:

I give Adam Lind, Elijah Dukes and #8 for $3 Mathews and $35 Jim Thome,

It is a 12-team, AL-only 4x4 keeper league with a two-round minor league draft. I love prospects, but think this may be too good to pass-up. Both Lind and Dukes can be protected on the farm. Thoughts?

Gary Mathews Jr

With a 5YR/$50MM contract for Gary Mathews, Jr., the Angels have effectively closed off the rumors of a trade between themselves and the Boston Red Sox for Manny Ramirez.

The Angels will have Mathews in CF with Garret Anderson and Juan Rivera sharing time in LF and DH and Vladomir playing RF.

Ironically, Mathews' contract makes Manny's look like an absolute bargain and that should fire-up the Manny rumors.

Jason LaRue

Word is the Reds are about to deal C Jason LaRue to the Royals for a PTBNL. This has two fantasy implications.

The first is 21 HR catcher Dave Ross is considered legit by the Reds organization. I tend to agree despite getting burned by him in 2004 following his 10 HR/124AB 2003 season.

Even at $9 or $10, Ross carries little risk.

The more interesting implication is the plunge in draft value that will happen to 26-year-old John Buck. He's a $5 catcher anyhow, but with LaRue, he'll be a $1 at the end of the draft.

And for $1, I love him.

Reds Moves

Gm Wayne Krivsky continues to morph the free-swinging/walks-taking Reds into a more defense-minded team. He inked former Marlin and Red Sock Alex Gonzalez to a three-year $15MM contract.

I've heard nothing but plaudits for AGonz's defense. On that front, I would expect a slight plus for the Reds pitching staff. How much I can't determine.

What I can determine is AGonz will be predicted to match his 23 HR output from a couple years ago. Playing in Cincy's home park guarantees the prediction.

What concerns me is he has failed to hit double figures in either of the past two years. FWIW, he hit just 24 2Bs in Fenway, his lowest this decade minus an abreviated 2002. That combined with AGonz's inability to work a walk (career-high 33 in 8 major league seasons) will make me shy away for anything more than a couple dolalrs in NL-only leagues.

Free ESPN Insider Weekend

Smartly, the suits at ESPN have decided to allow access to their Insider package. Great stuff has become available from Peter Gammons to Keith Law to this tidbit from Buster Olney:

ESPN.com - INSIDER - Buster Olney Blog#20061118: "Hearing a lot of chatter about a possible Atlanta-Baltimore trade built around right-hander Tim Hudson, a free agent coveted by the Orioles a couple of years ago. You would have to assume that either Adam Loewen or Hayden Penn, two of the Orioles' better young pitchers, would be involved in the discussions."

I could not imagine the tired ten-figure-salaried Tim Hudson landing a player like Loewen, but Penn still has enough shine to overcome his generally unsuccesful stints as a major leaguer.

Danys Baez Closer Watch

From today's Plain Dealer in Cleveland:

"Baez is reportedly looking for a three-year deal as a closer. "

I don't doubt he is going to get a nice contract, but he'd better hurry if he wants one to be a closer. By my count, the following teams have openings: Boston, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Kansas City, Marlins, Cardinals, and the Reds with the Diamondbacks and Giants on shaky closing grounds.

The DRays, Royals and Cards still have the relievers who finished-up 2006 in the role, so they are apt to shun the pricey free agent market. Also, The Drays and indians have had Baez and have dealt him. They may be less inclined to bring him back as the closer at closer money.

The music is playing.....

Nomar Garciaparra

Dodgers close to keeping Nomar - Los Angeles Times

So the Ned Colletti and the Dodgers are willing to give Nomar a multi-year deal to play 1B despite the $380K option of James Loney?

How will this situation play out according to the Dodgers?

"...Garciaparra has a better chance of staying healthy by remaining at first and would be reluctant to have him change positions. Loney would play first when Garciaparra rests and also compete for playing time in the outfield."

Consider me unsold on the viability of playing James Loney in RF or LF. He did make two appearances out there in 2006, but I wonder how well he can play the position and how well his power plays out.

A 10-HR hitter at a corner OF position is not your typical production.

As such, I do consider him a great end-of-draft $1 player. A Nomar injury, an unexpected smooth transition to the OF and Loney could get 350+ ABs. Without that, he'd likely not accumulate enough ABs to get significant counting stats.

Wes Helms

I kicked off 2006 with a post about former Florida Marlin 3B Wes Helms. Now that he signed a two-year $5.5 MM contract with the Phillies, i thought I'd provide a closing post on Helms.

The guys at NBC Sports/Rotoworld are fairly hard on the Phillies for signing him:
"Did they learn nothing from signing Abraham Nunez a year ago? Taking a bench player and giving him a multiyear deal and a starting job based on little more than one quality season is about the worst thing a GM can do that doesn't involve Chan Ho Park. Helms isn't even that good of a defender at third. He'd likely continue to have value as a bench player, but as a regular, he could make Phillies fans yearn for David Bell."

I think that harshness could set the tone for Helms' value going into the draft. If so, then expect Helms to be a good late round pick for $7-$11. Really? Who could lose their job to Abraham nunez/

Frank Thomas

ESPN.com - MLB - Sources: Blue Jays closing in on deal with Thomas

39 HR and 114 RBI is too hard to ignore.

137 games played as a DH easy to ignore.

I think JP is making a mistake. The turf in Toronto may not be as forgiving on Thomas' feet.

I wonder if Billy Beane laughs at his coattail rider.

Danys baez

Chatter: "Tribe manager Eric Wedge on free-agent Danys Baez: “We’ve talked to Danys and he wants to close.” "

That always warms my heart. Stick to your guns Danys. You can close again!

(If he'd remain in the NL, I'd be even more happy!)

JD Drew

Hoffman has Cy Young shot The San Diego Union-Tribune: "Boras said clubs are offering five years for Drew. "

While I would have expected J.D. Drew to get a contract along the lines of Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui (4YR/$52MM) with competition likely adding a 5th year, the fact Boras said he has clubs offering five year deals makes me pause.

I interpret everything he says as an exxageration, and, if he states more than one club has offered a five year deal, then I conclude there are none.

Remember Kevin Millwood a few years ago?

Daisuke Matzusaka

MLB's Oreste Destrade broke the story today that the Boston Red Sox won the right to sign Matzusaka with a $50MM posting fee.

I had been thinking the flush-with-money theory was an exxageration following the Ramirez and Wood signings, but that posting fee is going to make Daisuke close to a $100MM pitcher after he signs his contract.

Barry Zito is in line for Kevin brown money if that proves true.

Hunter Pence

I play in a very deep NL-only 4X4 league that allows up to 5 minor league protects each year.

As such, the pool from which we select our minor league draftees is typically is empty of all the top 2006 prospects.

Fortunately, Hunter Pence was not selected last year, and enters this one as one of the top candidates to be selected #1 overall.

SportingNews.com - MLB - Inside Dish: Diamonds in the rough will be harder to find: "Astros OF Hunter Pence is drawing raves for his play in Arizona as well. 'He's kind of an old country ballplayer,' an American League scout says. 'Naturally strong, hunched back, but he really seems to have a good feel at the plate. He's probably the surest thing out here among position players.' "

Jaret Wright trade

O's agree to trade for Wright - baltimoresun.com

The Orioles are sending rookie reliever Chris Britton to the Yankees for one-year-remining starter Jaret Wright.

So much for other teams being unwilling to trade with the Yankees.

For a player the Yankees did not want they are getting a middle releiver that would likely command $10 million dollars on the free agent market. That is a figure the Yankees won't pay him in the next three years combined!

(Maybe not at the league minimu is $380K, but you get the picture.)

I do like Wright in real-life, but, in fantasy baseball, I'd never deal a middle reliever for Jaret Wright. Those innings-weighted ratios are killers!

Dave Roberts

I surmised Roberts will get 3YR/$24MM and not fit the Rockies budget. Then I read this Journal-Sentinel article.

GM DougMelvin said Roberts' agent told him there were 12 teams interested, and he didn't believe a two-year contract would get it done.

Yowser!

Rockies CF

The Denver Post reports the Rockies are expected to have a $52MM salary in 2006. With $34MM committed to 5 players including LF Matt Holliday, there isn't much room for "marquee" free agent centerfielders.

With the major league minimum salary for 2007 being $380K, the Rockies have committed a minimum of $41.6 MM to its 25-man roster ($34MM for five players and 20@$380K.)

With $8MM per being the bandied about number for centerfielders, I do not see the Rockies addressing there CF via free agency.

Dave Roberts is the player most talked about, but I'd be shocked to see him get less than three years and $24MM. He does have the OBP that Juan Pierre lacks. (51 BBs in 499 ABs vs 32BB in 699 ABs) (Nevermind that Roberts in 35 and Pierre 30!)

I think the Rox could fit Roberts at $8MM in 2006, the team should be aware that Holliday and Atkins will be in the midst of their arbitration years and will take up more and more of the Rox' salary.

Do not be surprised to see the Rockies end-up with Jeff Salazar getting a chance to bring his AAA OBP of .357 to Coors. (And he had a .403 in 53 September ABs.)

Sheffield to Detroit

This morning's Newsday reports the Yankees and Tigers have made progress towards a deal that would send RF Gary Sheffield to the Tigers for...something.

However, the opting-out by JD Drew has made Los Angeles the best place to send Sheffield.

He can step into the vacated RF job and get an two-year extension for $20MM that the Dodgers were going to pay Drew in 2008 & 2009.

The question is what the Yanks will accept in a league-changing trade.

Gary Sheffield to Oakland?

SHEFF IS STEWING By MICHAEL MORRISSEY - New York Post Online Edition: Seven: "Two different major-league officials believed Sheffield will end up with the Cubs or Athletics."

I'd love to see what a deal with the A's would look like.

The Yankees need a first baseman. Would Dan Johnson for Sheff be feasible? With Daric Barton at AAA, the A's could remove one obstacle to major league ABs.

The Yankees could always use a starter/swing starter. Would Brad Halsey be available? Would the Yankees even consider that?

(Personally, the Yanks should pick-up Jaret Wright's $7MM option and use him in that swing role. If the Yanks do not, they pay Wright $4MM anyhow.)

Would Johnson and Halsey be enough?

Or would Daric Barton be a better match?

Without knowing what bargaining position the Yanks are in, I find it hard to speculate what the Yanks would be willing to accept.

Eric Patterson

Rototimes' Nate Ravitz has a glowing report on Cubs' AAA 2B Eric Patterson.

His eyes confirmed what his 46 SBs in 2006 tell you. Patterson is legitmately fast and looks to have developed the skills - OBP and defense - to make him a minor league draft pick in 2007.

With a currently unsettled 2B situation and some AAA success, Patterson could surprise this spring.

Barfield Trade

Here's my assessment of the deal from Fake Teams.

I have little doubt that Barfield will be a cheaper option than Robinson Cano next draft and will provide more SBs.

When Cano hits the high $20s, don't fear taking Barfield to the low $20s.

Red Sox Closer

This morning's Boston Globe reports Red Sox GM Theo Epstein stating the Sawx will obtain a closer via free agency or trade.

If the route is free agency, all Craig Hansen owners can feel free to cut bait as the free agent's contract will likley run for more than a year and effectively block Hansen from rising to the role he was drafted for.

While Eric Gagne would be a sexy choice, I believe his bevy of injuries is too much to gamble on.

More Teahen

Today's Kansas City Star reports the Royals are seriously considering moving 3B Mark Teahen to left field to make room for uber-prospect Alex Gordon at the hot corner.

More interesting is the fact this was decided in early September, and it is the reason the Royals surprisingly cut short Teahen's breakout season.

I would be surprised if Teahen started Opening Day in left field because I believe Royals GM Dayton Moore when he says he wants Royals prospects to hit each level of the minors.

That means Teahen should play enough games at 3B to qualify there in 2008.

A signal that Teahen would open in LF would be a trade of either Reggie Sanders or Emil Brown. That would open a spot in the OF assuming Joey Gaithwright isn't a starter.

Mark Teahen

In the "Comments" section of this post, a reader asked what I thought about the 2007 prospects for Royals 3B Mark Teahen. (Really, he asked, "I'm curious to know your thoughts on Mark Teahen. He seems to be the one with offensive projections all over the map.") My re-phrasing remains faithful to the intent, right?)

I believe he learned something after his demotion to AAA following his horrible start to the 2006 season (.194 AVG). When he returned he hit .313 through the first week of September when he was precautionarily shut down with a shoulder issue.

Assuming the shoulder is healthy, I expect Teahen to maintain a 2007 performance closer to his post-demotion numbers than his pre-demotion ones. I can't say I can comfortably pro-rate his half-season production (June/July/August 16 HRs) into 30+ HRs, although I have little doubt he will get priced into the $20s on draft days 2007.

That said, I'd be comfortable expecting 15-20 HRs and 10 SBs from him next season. That would place him in the $17 range on draftday.

Bonderman/Texeiera Rumors

The rumors of a Jeremy Bonderman/Mark Texeiera trade have a life of their own right now.

Both players are free agents after the 2008 season, and I'm not convinced a move to Arlington will continue Bonderman's steady statistical progress.

If that occurs, then he will be a very pricey starting pitcher whilst Texeiera mashes away in Detroit.

Bonderman could bring bat Tigers need - 11/06/06 - The Detroit News Online: "Q . Whom will the Tigers trade for?
A . I like their chances to make a deal for Mark Teixeira of Texas. A young catcher in the Braves' system, Jarrad Saltalamacchia, is the kind of future starter they could be expected to grab in a separate trade for a pitcher, say, for someone like Jordan Tata."

Jarrod Saltalamacchia should be available in trade talks, but I wonder whether the Tigers would deal a pitching prospect for a catching one.

Adam Dunn

So the Reds new hitting coach, Brook Jacoby, is going to work on Adam Dunn's strikeouts:

"If he were to put the ball in play a little more, I'm sure it would mean some more RBIs and possibly some more hits. It might be an approach thing with him with two strikes; it might be a mechanical thing. I'll have to sit down and talk to him and we'll figure it out. I'd like to think something could be improved there."

That quote will be the impetus for fantasy baseball pros everywhere to covert some number of his 194 Ks into hits and then into improved AVG.

Of those hits, some will be HRs, so the projections for a big Adam Dunn HR year will be made. (Roughly one quarter of his 2006 hits were HRs.)

This will also be buttressed by the fact Dunn is going into his Age 27 year.

Then someone will note his 7 SBs last year and notice the 19 he had a few seasons ago and reasonably conclude his could get 10. Then recall that he had said he wanted to run more just two seasons ago and confidently predict that double-digit steal season for 2007.

And wham! Adam Dunn is hyped enough to climb into the 2nd round in AVG leagues and the late first in OBP leagues.

I'll just recall the hype surrounding the 2005 season when he was going to run more and ended-up with four SB - his career-low!

I'm not buying the hype, but will happily deal a $38 Dunn from my NL-only team if that team believes the hype. (Yes, he went for $38 in that 2005 draft based upon the SB hype, and, yes, I protected him at $38 in 2006. But only for the "guaranteed" 40 HRs.)

Francisco Liriano

Finally, the news fantasy baseball players have waited on has arrived.

Francisco Liriano will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the 2007 season

Recall I was already thinking about what to spend during the 2007 draft back in September.

I have settled on $15 give or take a few depending on the draft i.e lots of money chasing fewer good options.

Randy Johnson

How the mighty have fallen!

From Tyler Kepner's piece in this morning's New York Times:

"The Yankees would like to re-sign Mussina for two years, and they seem to understand it would take more than $10 million a year to sign him. Mussina, who had no arm problems last season, would be the second solid member of the rotation, joining Chien-Ming Wang."

I wish I could forget the $26 million the Yanks are going to give Randy johnson and Carl Pavano.

2007 Fantasy Baseball Guide

Another tidbit:

"As a general rule, I sort Rotisserie baseball players into five categories:

1. Starting Pitchers
2. Closers and Possible Closers
3. Reliable Hitters
4. Questionable Ups
5. Questionable Downs.

I take a first-impression attack towards sorting players. By rapidly sorting various players, I am provided a frame work from which I can evaluate additional information. What is important is a willingness to move players from one group to another or out of a group entirely.

The first two categories are self-explanatory with the exception...."

The $25MM Man

The NY Daily News reports the Mets and 2006 ace, Tom Glavine, are close to a two-year/$25MM contract.

At 41, why can't I stop thinking of the previous two-year extension granted to a NY pitcher? The Yankees $32MM extension for Randy Johnson.

Maybe this will work better for the Mets, but one thing is crystal clear.

There is a lot of money in MLB.

So much that the players will soon be in possession of the ridiculous contracts the NBA can bestow upon their mediocrities i.e. 5YR/$30MM for Jerome James. (Actually, one need only randomly select any Knick as an example.)

In baseball, the $6MM bum is non-existent. There are baseball bums paid $6MM, but they have typically performed well prior to signing.

Alphonso Soriano Rumors

Philadelphia Inquirer 11/01/2006 Phillies will offer big money to Soriano

If the Cardinals can win the World Series with Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen and some no-names, the Phillies would be unstoppable with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Alphonso Soriano, and Jimmy Rollins.

As someone who does not have Soriano in my NL-only league and plays in an AL-only, I am saddend that Soriano wouldn't switch leagues. I really wanted to go $45+ for him at next year's draft.