Start Sit Week Nine

RB Ryan Moats or Steve Slaton, Houston Texans: I'm going with the talent. In this case, that is Slaton.

WR Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions: After last week's surprise inactive status, who knows? If you have a better option, sitting CJ could be done, but does that better option have more talent?

WR Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals: Two weeks of gimpiness says he should be sitting until he is 100%.

RB Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles: If he is active, he starts.

RB Kevin Smith or Maurice Morris, Detroit Lions: Smith is the better back.

RB Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs: In PPRs, he is a legitimate RB2. In non-PPRs, you worry he continues to roduce like LArry Johnson did.

Start Sit Made Easier: Ten Worst Run Defenses

Rush Rank	Team	RYA	Vs	Decision
32	Buffalo	174.1	BYE	Start 0
31	Cleveland	170.5	BYE	Start 0
30	Tampa Bay	162.4	GB	Start Ryan Grant
29	Oakland	161	BYE	Start 0
28	Jacksonville	160.1	KC	Start Jamaal Charles
27	St. Louis	134.8	BYE	Start 0
26	San Diego	132.1	@NYG	Start Ahmad Bradshaw_Brandon Jacobs
25	Kansas City	131	@JAX	Start Maurice Jones-Drew
24	Carolina	127.6	@NO	Start Pierre Thomas_Mike Bell
23	Atlanta	121.7	WAS	Start Clinton Portis

Jeremy Hermida Trade Winners

Yesterday, the Florida Marlins moved disappointing OF Jeremy Hermida to the Boston Red Sox. The immediate effect is to save the Marlins money in the Hermida's 2nd arbitration-eligible off-season.

Nearly simultaneously, Hermida's value goes up on two fronts. He gets a P.R. reprieve by going to an organization in which the herd of sabre sychophants worship. Second, he gets to play after being benched in favor of rookie Chris Coughlin.

Assuming LF Jason Bay signs with another team, Hermida will get the chance to start in LF. A change of scenery and ABs makes Hermida a potential J.D. Drew type. In a seemingly barren fantasy outfield landscape, 20 HR and 70 RBI is rosterable.

For the Marlins, the question is who plays RF. The easy answer is Cody Ross, but he is also eligible for arbitration for the second time and would be lloking at a similar salary to that Hermida may have been granted.

Assuming Ross is also dealt for the same financial reason, look for the Marlins to rotate Coghlan, Emilio Bonifacio and a couple of older prospects like John Raynor and Scott Cousins through left and right field.

Start Sit Made Easier: Ten Worst Pass Defenses

Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
32	Tennessee	282.4	@SF	Start Michael Crabtree
31	Atlanta	256.4	WAS	Start Santana Moss
30	Cincinnati	253.3	BAL	Start Derrick Mason
28	San Francisco	252.1	TEN	Start Nate Washington?
28	Kansas City	252.1	@JAX	Start Mike Sims-Walker
27	Detroit	251.9	@SEA	Start TJ Houshmandzadeh_Nate Burrelson
26	St. Louis	238.6	BYE	Start 0
25	Minnesota	238	BYE	Start 0
24	Dallas	237.1	@PHI	Start DeSean Jackson
23	Cleveland	236.6	BYE	Start 0

Spreadsheet Smarties Or Real Life

Teahen To The White Sox | FanGraphs Baseball:

"The two players Moore got back from KC aren’t franchise changers – they’re just useful parts to have around in spring training when putting a roster together. Teahen is just not someone that should be making significant money, and given his arbitration status, he’s basically a non-value asset. The White Sox could have acquired a similar or better player by just spending the $5 million they’ll give him in free agency without sacrificing any talent."

I just can't help thinking the value of major league average performer is harder to attain than the spreadsheet smarties think. The spreadsheet smarties have no conceptualization of the selection bias necessary to perform at league average.

Start Sit: Calvin Johnson

Will Carroll's Black & Blue Report at Football outsiders:

"One thing to note is that knee injuries for wide receivers tend to linger a bit and limit them in ways that may or may not be able to be adjusted for. With his size, Johnson should be, at worst, a red zone target."

Read: He is not 100%.

Start Sit Made Easier: Top 10 Run Defenses

Rush Rank	Team	RYA	Vs	Decision
1	Pittsburgh	76.4	@DEN	Sit Knowshon Moreno
2	San Francisco	84.9	TEN	Sit Chris Johnson
3	Denver	86.9	PIT	Sit Rashard Mendenhall
4	Baltimore	87.6	@CIN	Sit Cedric Benson
5	Cincinnati	88	BAL	Sit Ray Rice
6	Miami	92.4	@NE	Sit Laurence Maroney
7	Minnesota	94.6	BYE	Sit 0
8	Arizona	96.4	@CHI	Sit Matt Forte
9	Green Bay	99.4	@TB	Sit Cadillac Williams
10	Seattle	101.3	DET	Sit Kevin Smith

Start Sit Made Easier: The Top 10 Pass Defenses

A good defense measured by passing yards allowed is often a function of horrendous run defenses.

Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
1	Carolina	160.6	@NO	Sit Marques Colston
2	NY Giants	163.9	SD	Sit Vincent Jackson
3	Washington	164.6	@ATL	Sit Roddy White
4	NY Jets	165.3	BYE	Sit 0
5	New England	176.3	MIA	Sit Devone Bess?
6	San Diego	178.4	@NYG	Sit Steve Smith_Hakeem Nicks
7	Indianapolis	180.1	HOU	Sit Andre Johnson_Kevin Walter
8	Denver	180.6	PIT	Sit Hines Ward_Santana Moss
9	Green Bay	184	@TB	Sit Antonio Bryant
10	Philadelphia	195.9	DAL	Sit Miles Austin

Braves Top 10 Prospects

I can't believe these started already!

BaseballAmerica.com: Prospects: Rankings: Organization Top 10 Prospects: Braves Top 10 Prospects

1.Jason Heyward, of
2.Freddie Freeman, 1b
3.Julio Teheran, rhp
4.Mike Minor, lhp
5.Craig Kimbrel, rhp
6.Christian Bethancourt, c
7.Randall Delgado, rhp
8.Zeke Spruill, rhp
9.Cody Johnson, of
10.Adam Milligan, of"

Start Sit: Shonn Green

From Sunday's comments:
"How effective Greene is is still up in the air. He is not a change of pace back and Thomas looks great. To me, it is not clear how much work he gets especially if he does not chip a rusher or two early in the game. Second, the Raiders are so pathetic that his effort last week could be a major fluke."

Close enough. I know there is a waiver wire rush to pick-up Houston Texans RB Ryan Moats following his very impressive game, but let Greene's follow-up to his very impressive effort act as a warning. Not only did Moats do it against a crappy run defense like Greene did, Moats also has a healthy #1 ahead of him like Greene had with Thomas Jones.

Waiver Wire: Fantasy Basketball

Because fantasy baseball and football are so ubiquitous, the games' players assume whatever information they have become accustomed to seeing is widespread across other fantasy games. In an effort to avoid that mistake, here is a list of the NBA players picked off waivers in the 1st week of the season. The source of this information is an 8-team non-keeper league with deep rosters and a 12-team keeper league.

8-team, non-keeper:
Add C Andray Blatche Drop Tyson Chandler
Add SF Danilo Gallinari Drop Tyler Hansbrough
Add SG Courtney Lee Drop SF Mike Miller
Add C Channing Frye Drop Brad Miller
Add C Marreese Speights Drop SG Kelenna Azubuike
Add PF DeJuan Blair Drop Anthony Morrow

12-team, keeper:
Add SF Corey Brewer Drop Delonte West
Add SG Courtney Lee Drop Kendrick Perkins
Add C Marreese Speights Drop Tyson Chandler
Add SG Ronnie Brewer Drop PG Jarret Jack
Add PF Paul Millsap Drop PG Ramon Sessions
Add PG Rafer Alston Drop C Chris Anderson
Add SG Chris Douglas-Roberts Drop Mike Bibby
Add C Ben Wallace Drop C Hasheem Thabeet

Waiver Wire QBs

QB Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
Why: Rookie WR Michael Crabtree looks like a legitimate WR2 right now, and TE Vernon Davis gives a second option. Add in the ability of RB Frank Gore to catch passes and the 49ers look like a completely different offense than the one established pre-Crabtree.

QB Vince Young, Tennessee Titans
Why: 12 carries for 30 yards. Those rushing yards were the equivalent of 75 passing yards. I'm also wagering Young will vulture a handful of goalline TDs if he gets 10 rushes per game.

Waiver Wire RBs

RB Ryan Moats, Houston Texans
Why: WTF Steve Slaton! 126 yards and three rushing TDs along with two receptions. In the receiving vacuum created by the loss of TE Owen Daniels, Moats could be a valuable Flex option even if Steve Slaton is OK.

RB Maurice Morris, Detroit Lions
Why: A starting RB is worth picking up. If Kevin Smith is OK, then grabbing Morris is even less imperative.

Week Nine Waiver Wire: The Sits

Byes: Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets

Top players on bye:
QB: Brett Favre
RB: Steven Jackson, Adrian Peterson, Thomas Jones
WR: Sydney Rice, Percy Harvin
TE: Zach Miller, Vinsanthe Shiancoe, Dustin Keller
DST: Minnesota

Amongst these, just Adrian Peterson would be a cause for serious concern. Steven Jackson would normally be included but he has underwhelmed all season. After eight weeks, you've likely adapted notwithstanding today's effort.

Start Sit: Ahmad Bradshaw

Despite a Week Six explosion, New York Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw has been a disappointment. He is not getting many more than 10-12 carries a week and is not catching passes.

With that reality, news of a stress fracture in his foot casts Bradshaw down the start decision ladder. Now one must ask whether the risk of a defensive player targetting the foot and sending BRadshaw to the sidelines early in a game is worth taking if one has a Jamal Lewis sitting on the bench.

If the RB has no competition and an average match-up, Bradshaw sits. This week, the Eagles enter the game with the 8th fewest rushing yards allowed over the past three games and 11th fewest over 2009.

Start Sit: Marion Barber, Felix Jones, Tashard Choice

The 2009 version of the three-headed RB the Baltimore Ravens used in 2008 is a live and well. Marion Barber plays the role of LeRon McClain. Felix Jones is Ray Rice, and Tashard Choice is Willis McGahee.

The concern about using Jones and Choice is neither gets double digit carries and are heavily dependent on breaking big gains to accumulate yards. With these points in mind, start or sit any of the three based on yours needs.

Start Sit: Andre Johnson

Spitting up blodd thanks to a lung contusion is enough to cause hesitation when choosing between Johnson and another viable option. However, Johnson's elite status combined with his full participation in late week practice makes the decision much easier.

Start Andre Johnson.

Start Sit: Reggie Wayne

The Indianapolis Colts top WR Reggie Wayne did not practive all week with a sore groin. All indications are he will play. Given his elite status and the difference in expected production between him and a free agent WR, I'd start Wayne.

Start Sit: Calvin Johnson

Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson is reported to still be less than 100%. This unsettles most fantasy owners who expected the bye week to clear up any lingering aches. When Lions head coach Jim Schwartz was the defensive coordinator with the Tennessee Titans, he vowed he would never be upfront with injury news when he became a head coach.

With that in mind, I'd start Calvin Johnson.

Fantasy Baseball 2010: Jay Bruce's Expected ADP

I expect Bruce’s ADP to be well over 100 everywhere except the smartiest of the smart pants expert drafts. Last year, he was a hot play around the 6th and 7th round. This year, no one with a modicum of common sense will fail to penalize him a couple rounds – at least.

The 7th-10th rounds are typically spent getting SP and closers. Putting Bruce after that makes him an 11th rounder – ADP 110-121 in most leagues.