I wrote this in response to a team who claims to be able to ignore Saves at the draft.
"We're #3! We're #3!
If that logic worked then teams would win every year doing it, but like the Red Sox found out and the Blue Jays are too stupid to realize, you need closers/saves.
Once the draft ends, the number of quality players who become available in the course of the season is one or two at a time, and there are 11 other teams looking for the same thing.
While drafting, a team won't over pay for a third closer, but that same team will take that third closer out of the pool because that is the best player available to fill a pitching slot."
Monday, April 18, 2005
Saturday, April 09, 2005
Joe opts to save Rivera for later
New York Daily News - Baseball - Joe opts to save Rivera for later
Mo doesn't throw all winter.
He takes a week to get into his first ST game.
He throws a couple games and is shut down with elbow bursitus for a couple weeks.
He returns and blows his first two save opps.
The Yanks have an off-day.
The next game Tore decides before the game that he will "rest."
Quack. Quack. What am I?
Mo doesn't throw all winter.
He takes a week to get into his first ST game.
He throws a couple games and is shut down with elbow bursitus for a couple weeks.
He returns and blows his first two save opps.
The Yanks have an off-day.
The next game Tore decides before the game that he will "rest."
Quack. Quack. What am I?
Tuesday, April 05, 2005
Available Players
A common misconception about drafting is that every player who could go for $30+ will go for $30+. As you study the lists of available players, you no doubt see several who can go that high.
The fact is that only a few will break that mark. The others will go for the mid-$20s and inevitably, a player who is worth a mid-$20 bid will fall into the teens.
Why? Money and open roster slots. There is only so much money available to address every team need via the draft. Do you go $31 for Jeff Bagwell when you need a catcher and speedy OF, two position with significantly less available talent? No, you do not. If several teams use the same meme, then 1B will go cheaper at the end of the draft for the simple reason that other teams spent their money on positions of greater perceived need.
Open roster slots also affect the prices. In a 12-team league, their are only 24 rosters slots for a 1B (1B and CR). Going into the drat half or more of these slots will be filled. This limits where a 1B can be placed. With limited space, teams may not be able to take players as high as you would project.
The DH/UT slot is also available but their is no reasonable expectation that it won't be filled by a OF/2B/SS/C or other non-1B player.
With tthis as background, one should think of the number of the highest priced players as "decaying" rapidly - a couple $40+, a handful of $30+ and then the vast majority going in the $20 +/-$5 range.
This doesn't not say that you won't overpay for a player because you will. What it does say is that the player you're likely to overpay for is the $15 one who goes for $21.
The fact is that only a few will break that mark. The others will go for the mid-$20s and inevitably, a player who is worth a mid-$20 bid will fall into the teens.
Why? Money and open roster slots. There is only so much money available to address every team need via the draft. Do you go $31 for Jeff Bagwell when you need a catcher and speedy OF, two position with significantly less available talent? No, you do not. If several teams use the same meme, then 1B will go cheaper at the end of the draft for the simple reason that other teams spent their money on positions of greater perceived need.
Open roster slots also affect the prices. In a 12-team league, their are only 24 rosters slots for a 1B (1B and CR). Going into the drat half or more of these slots will be filled. This limits where a 1B can be placed. With limited space, teams may not be able to take players as high as you would project.
The DH/UT slot is also available but their is no reasonable expectation that it won't be filled by a OF/2B/SS/C or other non-1B player.
With tthis as background, one should think of the number of the highest priced players as "decaying" rapidly - a couple $40+, a handful of $30+ and then the vast majority going in the $20 +/-$5 range.
This doesn't not say that you won't overpay for a player because you will. What it does say is that the player you're likely to overpay for is the $15 one who goes for $21.
Braden Looper
Thrown for a loop or some variation was the headline screaming from the backpages of the NYC dailies. This only exacerbated the agita of the Roto players who protected Looper.
As one, I am here to reduce the need for antacids.
Kris Benson was put o the DL with a pectoral tear. (Reduce? I have him too!)
What this means is the Mets are short a 5th starter right now (after the idiotic move to deal Matt Ginter for a reliever who wasn't going to make the Tigers bullpen! Once the sycophancy of the NY media wears off, people will realize that Minaya is a horrible trader.)
And what that means is the MEts will have to trade for a starter - not a closer. Looper is safe for now.
Also keep in mind that Trevor Hoffman was worse yesterday, and no Padre fans are looking to jump from any bridges. (Nor is John Kruk screaming on Sportscenter that the Pads need to get a closer as he did about the Mets yesterday.)
Remember every closer blows at least one save per season in an extraordinary fashion. Doing it on the first day or during the first week of the season changes nothing.
As one, I am here to reduce the need for antacids.
Kris Benson was put o the DL with a pectoral tear. (Reduce? I have him too!)
What this means is the Mets are short a 5th starter right now (after the idiotic move to deal Matt Ginter for a reliever who wasn't going to make the Tigers bullpen! Once the sycophancy of the NY media wears off, people will realize that Minaya is a horrible trader.)
And what that means is the MEts will have to trade for a starter - not a closer. Looper is safe for now.
Also keep in mind that Trevor Hoffman was worse yesterday, and no Padre fans are looking to jump from any bridges. (Nor is John Kruk screaming on Sportscenter that the Pads need to get a closer as he did about the Mets yesterday.)
Remember every closer blows at least one save per season in an extraordinary fashion. Doing it on the first day or during the first week of the season changes nothing.
Friday, April 01, 2005
Brazoban
Eric Gagne
Wow. Yahncy Brazoban rockets up everyone's Roto list, if available. However, in deep leagues, he was likely sitting on some team's active roster after being plucked from the pool late last season.
The question is whether he will close for a month or for the season. (There is little question Gagne, he of the newly-minted $19.5 MM contract over two years, closes immediately upon his return.)
For the team who has him for $10 (the typical pool salary), you must keep him as he was likely worthy of a $5 bid on ratios alone, With two weeks or more as the closer, he is easily worth $10.
The sticky question is what to pay for him in a trade. As the closer for the season, he fetches a $20 hitter. For a couple weeks? JT Snow and a pick?
What Brazoban gets in trade should be worth about $16. That is what he would go for in a draft. Clearly, that is mitigated by the uncertainty of time he spends as a closer.
Just as important are the other bullpen arms. Is Duaner Sanchez ready? Elmer Dessens, a failed SP? While this seems unlikely, remember Brazoban has very limited MLB experience and was only converted to pitching a few years ago.
Man that Brown for Weaver/Brazoban trade looks worse by the day.
Wow. Yahncy Brazoban rockets up everyone's Roto list, if available. However, in deep leagues, he was likely sitting on some team's active roster after being plucked from the pool late last season.
The question is whether he will close for a month or for the season. (There is little question Gagne, he of the newly-minted $19.5 MM contract over two years, closes immediately upon his return.)
For the team who has him for $10 (the typical pool salary), you must keep him as he was likely worthy of a $5 bid on ratios alone, With two weeks or more as the closer, he is easily worth $10.
The sticky question is what to pay for him in a trade. As the closer for the season, he fetches a $20 hitter. For a couple weeks? JT Snow and a pick?
What Brazoban gets in trade should be worth about $16. That is what he would go for in a draft. Clearly, that is mitigated by the uncertainty of time he spends as a closer.
Just as important are the other bullpen arms. Is Duaner Sanchez ready? Elmer Dessens, a failed SP? While this seems unlikely, remember Brazoban has very limited MLB experience and was only converted to pitching a few years ago.
Man that Brown for Weaver/Brazoban trade looks worse by the day.
Thursday, March 31, 2005
Keepers
With final protects due this weekend, I want to address two issues. The first is protecting a fully-valued star, and the second is the psychological barrier imposed upon pool pick-ups.
With a fully-priced (actual value + inflation premium) player, a team needs to determine what their individual margin-of-error is for their valuation method i.e. I have Derek Lee for $33 and think he could go for $29 to $35. If the player is within this range, then protecting him should not be in question. (Whether another team would trade for him is a different subject. While I wouldn't protect a $28 Marcus Giles, someone else may. While I would protect a $38 Schilling, other may not.)
The facts to remember is almost all superstar players always go for full value, and, in every draft, there are a couple who go for slightly less. The key though is recognizing the difficulty in determining beforehand which ones they will be. Knowing this this allows you to rest easier than you would if you spent the time prior to the draft feeling uninformed because some magazine says ARod is worth $28 when you want to protect him at $41. (Also keep in mind, most Roto mags are non-keeper,mixed-league and 5X5.)
Pool pick-ups carry a salary of $10. When protect time comes along, many teams look at that $10 salary and think, "I plucked him from the pool and could get someone like him again this year, so I can't protect him."
This mental rule needs to be broken despite its ingrainment in our psyche from lifetimes of $1.99 being a much better deal than $2.00. In order to break through this ask your self if the $10 player was $9 or $8 or $11 or $12 would he be more attractive. If "yes", then keep him.
Is Dontrelle Willis less attractive at $10 than Al Leiter at $8? Is JT Snow less attractive at $10 than Adam LaRoche is at $13? Is Jesus Colome less attractive at $10 than Huston Street is at $9? And so on.
With a fully-priced (actual value + inflation premium) player, a team needs to determine what their individual margin-of-error is for their valuation method i.e. I have Derek Lee for $33 and think he could go for $29 to $35. If the player is within this range, then protecting him should not be in question. (Whether another team would trade for him is a different subject. While I wouldn't protect a $28 Marcus Giles, someone else may. While I would protect a $38 Schilling, other may not.)
The facts to remember is almost all superstar players always go for full value, and, in every draft, there are a couple who go for slightly less. The key though is recognizing the difficulty in determining beforehand which ones they will be. Knowing this this allows you to rest easier than you would if you spent the time prior to the draft feeling uninformed because some magazine says ARod is worth $28 when you want to protect him at $41. (Also keep in mind, most Roto mags are non-keeper,mixed-league and 5X5.)
Pool pick-ups carry a salary of $10. When protect time comes along, many teams look at that $10 salary and think, "I plucked him from the pool and could get someone like him again this year, so I can't protect him."
This mental rule needs to be broken despite its ingrainment in our psyche from lifetimes of $1.99 being a much better deal than $2.00. In order to break through this ask your self if the $10 player was $9 or $8 or $11 or $12 would he be more attractive. If "yes", then keep him.
Is Dontrelle Willis less attractive at $10 than Al Leiter at $8? Is JT Snow less attractive at $10 than Adam LaRoche is at $13? Is Jesus Colome less attractive at $10 than Huston Street is at $9? And so on.
Wednesday, March 16, 2005
Milwaukee Brewers
Yesterday, Manager Ned Yost said David Krynzel would be going to AAA no matter how well or poorly he does this Spring.
This brings up an interesting question. Who is the back-up CF now?
As no quick answer comes to anyone's mind, this should be a clear indicator that Brady Clark is poised for a breakout season if only because there is no one to take the job. A simple projection would be to combine his past two years (742 plate appearances) to figure his maximun 2005 production (13/86/28).
I believe this is high as regular playing time vs picking the most favorable match-ups will expose Clark's weaknesses. That said, 20 SB seems reasonable.
The player who will differentiate Roto teams from the rest of the pack is Bill Hall. He contributed 9 HR and 12 SB last season while playing 2B, SS and 3B (of which he carries 2B & SS qualifications into this season.)
One may think 9 HR and 12 SB won't differentiate any team, but I disagree. Those numbers are top of the line for teams 12th, 13th or 14th hitter, and it is here that Roto championships are decided. Every team knows who the good players are, and every team has them. What every team doesn't have is the Bill Halls at the end of their roster. His contributions at the margin are valuable.
He contributes depth to a Roto team. When looking at the winning squad, one is struck by how many players contribute. Look at the losers are the likes of Dave Hanson, Chad Curtis, Lenny Harris and Vance Wilson are prevalent.
The point has been demostrated that BH is a good Roto player, but the key to his 2005 contribution is the desire to play him as the back-up CF, and this is why I believe he will contribute even more than in 2004. The added roster flexibility combined wthe low double digit HR and SB potential makes him more attractive than your typical utilty player.
Now if only Ned Yost had seen Neifi Perez make an appearance at C a few years ago and tried Hall there.
This brings up an interesting question. Who is the back-up CF now?
As no quick answer comes to anyone's mind, this should be a clear indicator that Brady Clark is poised for a breakout season if only because there is no one to take the job. A simple projection would be to combine his past two years (742 plate appearances) to figure his maximun 2005 production (13/86/28).
I believe this is high as regular playing time vs picking the most favorable match-ups will expose Clark's weaknesses. That said, 20 SB seems reasonable.
The player who will differentiate Roto teams from the rest of the pack is Bill Hall. He contributed 9 HR and 12 SB last season while playing 2B, SS and 3B (of which he carries 2B & SS qualifications into this season.)
One may think 9 HR and 12 SB won't differentiate any team, but I disagree. Those numbers are top of the line for teams 12th, 13th or 14th hitter, and it is here that Roto championships are decided. Every team knows who the good players are, and every team has them. What every team doesn't have is the Bill Halls at the end of their roster. His contributions at the margin are valuable.
He contributes depth to a Roto team. When looking at the winning squad, one is struck by how many players contribute. Look at the losers are the likes of Dave Hanson, Chad Curtis, Lenny Harris and Vance Wilson are prevalent.
The point has been demostrated that BH is a good Roto player, but the key to his 2005 contribution is the desire to play him as the back-up CF, and this is why I believe he will contribute even more than in 2004. The added roster flexibility combined wthe low double digit HR and SB potential makes him more attractive than your typical utilty player.
Now if only Ned Yost had seen Neifi Perez make an appearance at C a few years ago and tried Hall there.
Tuesday, March 15, 2005
Rotisserie Baseball Musing: New York Yankees
Rotisserie Baseball Musing: New York Yankees
So Mo comes up with bursitus after not throwing all winter long and not appearing in Spring Training games during the first week.
Why would he not throw at all in the off-season?
Could there be something there? Was I right about overuse and the possibilities this gives Tom Gordon?
So Mo comes up with bursitus after not throwing all winter long and not appearing in Spring Training games during the first week.
Why would he not throw at all in the off-season?
Could there be something there? Was I right about overuse and the possibilities this gives Tom Gordon?
Los Angelos Angels of Anaheim
(What an awkward name.)
That out of the way, there are two players who had excellent Roto seasons in 2004 who are in line to disappoint - Jeff Davanon and Chone Figgins.
Both players relied upon injuries to garner lots of playing time. Figgins made over 600 plate appearances while Davanon's plate appearances were close to his 2003 ones (Technically, about 10% fewer in 2004).
In the off-season, LAA signed Orlando Cabrera to a big contract to play SS and Steve Finley to play CF. The club also decided to give Dallas MacPherson 3B. These were the three positions that Figgins garnered the overwhelming majority of his ABs. (He made 13 appearances at SS.) Fortunately, Adam Kennedy blew out his knee last September, so Figgins begins the season as the starting 2B.
This will not last, and when Kennedy returns, Figgins will be without a regular gig. He may get half the ABs he did last season. As a result, I suggest trading him now because once the season begins, Roto teams will be more cognizant of Kennedy's return and this will diminish Figgins value.
Davanon garnered 80% of his ABs in the OF. With GLove, Finley and Vlad, there won't be but a couple starts per week available in the OF, and the Angels acquired Juan Rivera to be the 4th OF/injury replacement.
So Davanon is pushed into the DH role for regular ABs. That is until MacPherson's temporary replacement, Robb Quinlan, returns to the bench after filling-in for DMac. If Quinlan produces, as he has in his brief stints, he'd be given some of the DH ABs.
And when Kennedy returns, where is Figgins going to get ABs? DH! And none of this accounts for PT that Casey Kotchman could receive if he makes the team especially if Erstad comes up lame (Impossible!)
Little more needs to be elucidated. Figgins and Davanon were clutch members of successful 2004 Roto teams, but that is where their value ends. 2005 is a whole new ballgame and new Davanons and Figgins need to be uncovered.
That out of the way, there are two players who had excellent Roto seasons in 2004 who are in line to disappoint - Jeff Davanon and Chone Figgins.
Both players relied upon injuries to garner lots of playing time. Figgins made over 600 plate appearances while Davanon's plate appearances were close to his 2003 ones (Technically, about 10% fewer in 2004).
In the off-season, LAA signed Orlando Cabrera to a big contract to play SS and Steve Finley to play CF. The club also decided to give Dallas MacPherson 3B. These were the three positions that Figgins garnered the overwhelming majority of his ABs. (He made 13 appearances at SS.) Fortunately, Adam Kennedy blew out his knee last September, so Figgins begins the season as the starting 2B.
This will not last, and when Kennedy returns, Figgins will be without a regular gig. He may get half the ABs he did last season. As a result, I suggest trading him now because once the season begins, Roto teams will be more cognizant of Kennedy's return and this will diminish Figgins value.
Davanon garnered 80% of his ABs in the OF. With GLove, Finley and Vlad, there won't be but a couple starts per week available in the OF, and the Angels acquired Juan Rivera to be the 4th OF/injury replacement.
So Davanon is pushed into the DH role for regular ABs. That is until MacPherson's temporary replacement, Robb Quinlan, returns to the bench after filling-in for DMac. If Quinlan produces, as he has in his brief stints, he'd be given some of the DH ABs.
And when Kennedy returns, where is Figgins going to get ABs? DH! And none of this accounts for PT that Casey Kotchman could receive if he makes the team especially if Erstad comes up lame (Impossible!)
Little more needs to be elucidated. Figgins and Davanon were clutch members of successful 2004 Roto teams, but that is where their value ends. 2005 is a whole new ballgame and new Davanons and Figgins need to be uncovered.
Friday, March 11, 2005
Toronto Blue Jays
TheStar.com - Jays shift Batista to bullpen as closer
Wow! Speier didn't even get a chance to fail and JP has moved Batista back to closer.
As I have already stated, do not go wild on any Toronto closer. The GM is clearly making the decisions, and I can't help but say, making things worse.
Wow! Speier didn't even get a chance to fail and JP has moved Batista back to closer.
As I have already stated, do not go wild on any Toronto closer. The GM is clearly making the decisions, and I can't help but say, making things worse.
Thursday, March 10, 2005
Pittsburgh Pirates
Oliver Perez exploded on to the scene in 2004. While there were certainly those Roto owners who took flyers on him in hopes of him realizing some potential, no one predicted his actual performance (2.99 ERA/1.15 WHIP/239 K).
As a result, OP was either drafted for a near minimum bid last year or plucked from the pool at the default salary of the free agent pool player ($10). As long as he remains healthy, no one will know what he would fetch at a keeper-league auction draft for several years (the typical three-year contract plus a couple/three years of additionals years for long-term contracts.)
Is he worth $30+ that his IP and ratios, along with his age, would merit? Would the inability of his team, the Pittsburgh Pirates, to compete over a 162-game schedule suppress that value based on the likelihood of fewer Ws than a SP of similar aptitude on a more competitive club? (A similar SP would be Jason Schmidt - 3.20 ERA/1.08 WHIP/251 K)
To both questions, the answer is clearly "Yes." Using this, one can safely conclude a team will come out of the draft with OP at full market price but still realize several dollars of value. Oxymoronic, but true nonetheless
As a result, OP was either drafted for a near minimum bid last year or plucked from the pool at the default salary of the free agent pool player ($10). As long as he remains healthy, no one will know what he would fetch at a keeper-league auction draft for several years (the typical three-year contract plus a couple/three years of additionals years for long-term contracts.)
Is he worth $30+ that his IP and ratios, along with his age, would merit? Would the inability of his team, the Pittsburgh Pirates, to compete over a 162-game schedule suppress that value based on the likelihood of fewer Ws than a SP of similar aptitude on a more competitive club? (A similar SP would be Jason Schmidt - 3.20 ERA/1.08 WHIP/251 K)
To both questions, the answer is clearly "Yes." Using this, one can safely conclude a team will come out of the draft with OP at full market price but still realize several dollars of value. Oxymoronic, but true nonetheless
Tuesday, March 08, 2005
Jason Giambi
Yesterday, the Atlas of Steroids (bearing the entire sports world's problem on his shoulders), Jason Giambi, hit his first Spring Training homerun against the Red Sox in a media-fueled match-up that was hoped to be filled with lots and lots of taunting.
In previous spring games, he has received generally positive assessments.
These two pieces of information is enough for me to declare that Giambi will be able to hit. I do not expect him to ever hit .300 again, but do expect him to knock 40 dongs with an OBP near .400.
As a result, I no longer believe he will go cheap in an auction draft and expect him to hit the mid-$20s.
In previous spring games, he has received generally positive assessments.
These two pieces of information is enough for me to declare that Giambi will be able to hit. I do not expect him to ever hit .300 again, but do expect him to knock 40 dongs with an OBP near .400.
As a result, I no longer believe he will go cheap in an auction draft and expect him to hit the mid-$20s.
Monday, March 07, 2005
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Scott Kazmir, Baseball America's #7 prospect, made his first Spring appearance and departed after 1 1/3 innings. He reached his pitch count so quickly because he walked 3 batters.
This points to the most obvious flaw, and the one the removes the luster from the hype surrounding him for Roto purposes in 2005 - he can't throw strikes. As a result, his pitch counts will be high, and he will be removed early in his starts.
As his walk rate will be high (as will his K rate), his WHIP will suffer. As he pitches for a horrible team, he will not be in a position to win many games. The combination of a SP who has a high WHIP along with low wins makes him Roto ebola virus - stay away at all costs!
This is easier to say, though. The hype machine will be very difficult to ignore by the typical Roto player (as it will be for jeff Francis in Colorado), but ignored it must be.
The AL does not possess enough quality SP to offset 150 innings of 5.00/1.50 ratios. If you already have Santana, Schilling and/or Johnson, then you could gamble that Kazmir will learn how to throw strikes. If not, stay away.
A point to remember is Kazmir is a young strikeout pitcher. This mitigates his ability to let hitters put the ball in play. He will want to challenge each hitter. If he falls behind, then the batter will be at an advantage when Kazmir tries to avoid the walk.
There is nothing good happening here for 2005. (See 1997, 1998, and 1999 for Jaime Navarro.)
This points to the most obvious flaw, and the one the removes the luster from the hype surrounding him for Roto purposes in 2005 - he can't throw strikes. As a result, his pitch counts will be high, and he will be removed early in his starts.
As his walk rate will be high (as will his K rate), his WHIP will suffer. As he pitches for a horrible team, he will not be in a position to win many games. The combination of a SP who has a high WHIP along with low wins makes him Roto ebola virus - stay away at all costs!
This is easier to say, though. The hype machine will be very difficult to ignore by the typical Roto player (as it will be for jeff Francis in Colorado), but ignored it must be.
The AL does not possess enough quality SP to offset 150 innings of 5.00/1.50 ratios. If you already have Santana, Schilling and/or Johnson, then you could gamble that Kazmir will learn how to throw strikes. If not, stay away.
A point to remember is Kazmir is a young strikeout pitcher. This mitigates his ability to let hitters put the ball in play. He will want to challenge each hitter. If he falls behind, then the batter will be at an advantage when Kazmir tries to avoid the walk.
There is nothing good happening here for 2005. (See 1997, 1998, and 1999 for Jaime Navarro.)
Friday, March 04, 2005
New York Yankees
Every Roto player enters the draft beleiving they are the only ones looking at sleeper closing candidates, and they tend to look at teams where the present closer has a tenuous grasp or doesn't deserve it based on his ratios. This year those teams will be Toronto, Colorado, Oakland (all of which I've discussed here and here and here), Milwaukee, Seattle, Chicago NL, and Arizona.
When there are obvious places to look, the practice of detemining the bulpens with opportunities necessarily leads Roto teams to label the others as the opposite, "without opportunities", and move on.
It is here where the smart Roto owner spends some time, and why this post is titled "New York Yankees".
Mariano Rivera has been great, Hall-of-Fame great. He is in no risk, we are talking US government bond no risk, of losing his job. But what leads me here is the presence of Tom Gordon, a reliever who was superb last season and is better than most AL starting pitchers.
Most Roto teams would see Big Mo' and move on, although the smart ones know Gordon is better for a Roto team than the back end of most AL rotations.
What people should remember is Yankees manager Joe Torre falls in love with certain pitchers and rides then into the ground. He did it with Mike Stanton, Jeff Nelson, Ramiro Mendoza, briefly with Steve Karsay (man was that a stupid signing!) and last season with Paul Quantril.
It seems like Mo' should be next, and if this is the year (after all, Yankee brass did sign Gordon for two years when he could have closed elsewhere), then having Tom Gordon means you have a sub-$10 ready to become one of the elite AL closers.
And all because other teams become fixated on the Juan Cruzs, Huston Streets, Brandon Leagues, and JJ Putzs of the world.
When there are obvious places to look, the practice of detemining the bulpens with opportunities necessarily leads Roto teams to label the others as the opposite, "without opportunities", and move on.
It is here where the smart Roto owner spends some time, and why this post is titled "New York Yankees".
Mariano Rivera has been great, Hall-of-Fame great. He is in no risk, we are talking US government bond no risk, of losing his job. But what leads me here is the presence of Tom Gordon, a reliever who was superb last season and is better than most AL starting pitchers.
Most Roto teams would see Big Mo' and move on, although the smart ones know Gordon is better for a Roto team than the back end of most AL rotations.
What people should remember is Yankees manager Joe Torre falls in love with certain pitchers and rides then into the ground. He did it with Mike Stanton, Jeff Nelson, Ramiro Mendoza, briefly with Steve Karsay (man was that a stupid signing!) and last season with Paul Quantril.
It seems like Mo' should be next, and if this is the year (after all, Yankee brass did sign Gordon for two years when he could have closed elsewhere), then having Tom Gordon means you have a sub-$10 ready to become one of the elite AL closers.
And all because other teams become fixated on the Juan Cruzs, Huston Streets, Brandon Leagues, and JJ Putzs of the world.
Thursday, March 03, 2005
Toronto Blue Jays
Justin Speier was named the closer by manager John Gibbons.
This should be taken with a grain of salt, though as Toronto GM JP Ricciardi said Speier and last year's closer (for a time), Jason Frasor, would compete for the job. He also mentioned everyone's closer sleeper, Brandon League, would also see some opportunites.
And to make the situation more convoluted, the GM also includes Billy Koch, who successfully held the job in 2001, and was traded following that season for Ted Lilly.
Clearly, the Blue Jay's closer role is up for grabs. Every team will be hoping to land the Jays reliever who grabs hold of the job and runs with it. History, though, it not on any Jays reliever's side.
In 2003, Aquilino Lopez finished the year as the closer and racked-up 16 Saves. He took the job from Cliff Pollitte (12 Saves) who took it from Juan Acevedo (6 Saves) who was given it after Kelvim Escobar had a few bad outings and was converted to the starting rotation (after racking-up 38 saves in 2002.)
While hindsight allows one to see that two successive closers (Lopez & Escobar) did not make it through the following season with the same role on the same team, A-Lo owners entered the 2004 draft feeling great - a $30 closer in a $10 salary. (Any closer should be expected to fetch $30 in a standard AL-only 4X4 keeper league. In the NL? See this.)
Unfortunately, he got off to a slow start, and the role was taken away from him and given to Kerry Ligtenburg (5 Saves) and then to Jason Frasor (17 Saves). He ran into trouble and lost the job to Justin Speier (7 Saves) who lost it to Miguel Batista who accumulated 5 Saves in September. He was then moved back into the rotation this past off-season.
No one should be left with any impression except that closers change a lot in Toronto and that this season looks to be no different. (One only needs only recall the opening paragraphs of this post.)
With this established pattern of behavior, Roto players should not expect any Toronto closer to hold the job for the season. At the first signs of trouble, the job will be given to someone else.
This information should be used when bidding at the draft. Don't go more than $10 on any Jays reliever.
More importantly, during the season, you should not be hesitant to trade the closer du jour if he resides on your team as he will likely lose the job and you the quality players a closer would fetch in return. Also, trade for those Jays relievers who have not had the job yet as they will likely get an opportunity.
And finally, if a veteran ends the season with the job expect him to lose it the folowing year or be traded!
(Guess who is a deep, deep sleeper in NL-only leagues?)
This should be taken with a grain of salt, though as Toronto GM JP Ricciardi said Speier and last year's closer (for a time), Jason Frasor, would compete for the job. He also mentioned everyone's closer sleeper, Brandon League, would also see some opportunites.
And to make the situation more convoluted, the GM also includes Billy Koch, who successfully held the job in 2001, and was traded following that season for Ted Lilly.
Clearly, the Blue Jay's closer role is up for grabs. Every team will be hoping to land the Jays reliever who grabs hold of the job and runs with it. History, though, it not on any Jays reliever's side.
In 2003, Aquilino Lopez finished the year as the closer and racked-up 16 Saves. He took the job from Cliff Pollitte (12 Saves) who took it from Juan Acevedo (6 Saves) who was given it after Kelvim Escobar had a few bad outings and was converted to the starting rotation (after racking-up 38 saves in 2002.)
While hindsight allows one to see that two successive closers (Lopez & Escobar) did not make it through the following season with the same role on the same team, A-Lo owners entered the 2004 draft feeling great - a $30 closer in a $10 salary. (Any closer should be expected to fetch $30 in a standard AL-only 4X4 keeper league. In the NL? See this.)
Unfortunately, he got off to a slow start, and the role was taken away from him and given to Kerry Ligtenburg (5 Saves) and then to Jason Frasor (17 Saves). He ran into trouble and lost the job to Justin Speier (7 Saves) who lost it to Miguel Batista who accumulated 5 Saves in September. He was then moved back into the rotation this past off-season.
No one should be left with any impression except that closers change a lot in Toronto and that this season looks to be no different. (One only needs only recall the opening paragraphs of this post.)
With this established pattern of behavior, Roto players should not expect any Toronto closer to hold the job for the season. At the first signs of trouble, the job will be given to someone else.
This information should be used when bidding at the draft. Don't go more than $10 on any Jays reliever.
More importantly, during the season, you should not be hesitant to trade the closer du jour if he resides on your team as he will likely lose the job and you the quality players a closer would fetch in return. Also, trade for those Jays relievers who have not had the job yet as they will likely get an opportunity.
And finally, if a veteran ends the season with the job expect him to lose it the folowing year or be traded!
(Guess who is a deep, deep sleeper in NL-only leagues?)
Tuesday, March 01, 2005
St Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals closer, Jason Isringhausen, just reworked his contract to keep him in St. Louis, and, at $8 million per, he will be closing.
This commitment can be used wisely in keeper leagues if Izzy is entering the final year of his Roto contract. What a team does is to consider signing him to a Roto contract if his current salary is $30 or less. An additional year would pushes his 2005 salary to $35.
This is not undervalued by any non-keeper metrics, but in keeper leagues with typical inflation, Izzy could be expected to go for this much in an auction. In this scenario, he would be kept at $35 and likely pursued in the following off-season by those teams without a closer.
It is for that reason - as future trade bait- that he could be signed. No matter what Rotosites, magazines, and/or fellow teams say about Izzy at $35, he will be kept and pursued - but only if he is signed to a contract.
The extra money spent on the contract will also pay-off during in-season trading as teams acquiring him know he can be kept the following year versus him being a partial-season rental. This consideration will lead to better offered players.
And if you happen to do poorly in 2005 and want to prepare for the 2006 season, you can pair Izzy with an expiring contract to land a cheaper closer. The acquiring team will net the expiring contract while holding steady in Saves while you have a cheaper keeper the for next year's draft.
The future benefits outweigh the $5. The most difficult part will be the mental dissonance a team owner will experience as he or she constantly reads that the value of Jason Isringhausen is not $35.
It is difficult, but one must always remember that sites and forums are usually focused on 5X5 leagues and mixed leagues.
This commitment can be used wisely in keeper leagues if Izzy is entering the final year of his Roto contract. What a team does is to consider signing him to a Roto contract if his current salary is $30 or less. An additional year would pushes his 2005 salary to $35.
This is not undervalued by any non-keeper metrics, but in keeper leagues with typical inflation, Izzy could be expected to go for this much in an auction. In this scenario, he would be kept at $35 and likely pursued in the following off-season by those teams without a closer.
It is for that reason - as future trade bait- that he could be signed. No matter what Rotosites, magazines, and/or fellow teams say about Izzy at $35, he will be kept and pursued - but only if he is signed to a contract.
The extra money spent on the contract will also pay-off during in-season trading as teams acquiring him know he can be kept the following year versus him being a partial-season rental. This consideration will lead to better offered players.
And if you happen to do poorly in 2005 and want to prepare for the 2006 season, you can pair Izzy with an expiring contract to land a cheaper closer. The acquiring team will net the expiring contract while holding steady in Saves while you have a cheaper keeper the for next year's draft.
The future benefits outweigh the $5. The most difficult part will be the mental dissonance a team owner will experience as he or she constantly reads that the value of Jason Isringhausen is not $35.
It is difficult, but one must always remember that sites and forums are usually focused on 5X5 leagues and mixed leagues.
Sunday, February 27, 2005
San Diego Padres
Ryan Klesko is reported to be swinging with more authority than last season when he hit a staggeringly low 9 HR in 402 ABs.
I have no doubt that he, along with Sean Burroughs, will increase their power production (as would have Jay Payton if he had remained.)
Why? Because all three had numbers so low that I concluded they had an unusually bad year. The idea that bad years are followed by better ones is not unusual in Roto thinking. (As one site claims Roy halladay to be a sleeper for this reason.)
Usually, Roto players do this intra-season. A generic example is trading for second-half players. The team doing this hopes the bad first half will be offset by a better second half which pulls the player up to his career averages. When you deal for a Derek Jeter hitting .200 in May only to see him hit .350 the rest of the way and finish near .300, this is what you are doing.
Applying this on a season basis is a little less common but entirely justifiable.
What Roto players tend to forget is this concept works both ways. Not only from bad to better but from better to worse. Paul LoDuca is the classic second half fader.
But when applying it to season, Roto players tend to think players having great seasons have set a new baseline for performance. This is false, and the smart Roto player will take advantage of this Roto irrationality.
This brings me to the Padres and Petco Park. Two hitters in particular look to have had very good years despite playing 82 at an avowed pitcher's park and another 18 in LA and SF. That is 100 games in notorious pitcher's parks.
The hitters are Phil Nevin, whose season was great as was Ramon Hernandez's year, who accomplished his in fewer than 400 ABs.
Nevin's performance (26/105/.289) ranked up there with the career peaks he set back in 2000 and 2001 (the peak of performance enhancement?) in a less-pitcher friendly environment. The idea that he'd match those three years later defies logic.
Ramon Hernandez matched the numbers (18/61/.276) he had in Oakland, but in 100 fewer ABs. He played the fewest games he had over the past five seasons. With his position, this is a clear sign that he could be breaking down. Combine with his high production last season, the signs point towards a less successive season albeit it one that still holds value in NL-only leagues.
I have no doubt that he, along with Sean Burroughs, will increase their power production (as would have Jay Payton if he had remained.)
Why? Because all three had numbers so low that I concluded they had an unusually bad year. The idea that bad years are followed by better ones is not unusual in Roto thinking. (As one site claims Roy halladay to be a sleeper for this reason.)
Usually, Roto players do this intra-season. A generic example is trading for second-half players. The team doing this hopes the bad first half will be offset by a better second half which pulls the player up to his career averages. When you deal for a Derek Jeter hitting .200 in May only to see him hit .350 the rest of the way and finish near .300, this is what you are doing.
Applying this on a season basis is a little less common but entirely justifiable.
What Roto players tend to forget is this concept works both ways. Not only from bad to better but from better to worse. Paul LoDuca is the classic second half fader.
But when applying it to season, Roto players tend to think players having great seasons have set a new baseline for performance. This is false, and the smart Roto player will take advantage of this Roto irrationality.
This brings me to the Padres and Petco Park. Two hitters in particular look to have had very good years despite playing 82 at an avowed pitcher's park and another 18 in LA and SF. That is 100 games in notorious pitcher's parks.
The hitters are Phil Nevin, whose season was great as was Ramon Hernandez's year, who accomplished his in fewer than 400 ABs.
Nevin's performance (26/105/.289) ranked up there with the career peaks he set back in 2000 and 2001 (the peak of performance enhancement?) in a less-pitcher friendly environment. The idea that he'd match those three years later defies logic.
Ramon Hernandez matched the numbers (18/61/.276) he had in Oakland, but in 100 fewer ABs. He played the fewest games he had over the past five seasons. With his position, this is a clear sign that he could be breaking down. Combine with his high production last season, the signs point towards a less successive season albeit it one that still holds value in NL-only leagues.
Friday, February 25, 2005
Los Angeles Dodgers
Yesterday, Eric Gagne, the best Rotisserie closer (Brad Lidge is closing on him but let's see where those Ks go when he's only pitching the 9th for the whole season), felt a pop in his knee after throwing a pitch.
Early reports say this type of injury could take six weeks to heal. I could not help reacting with glee. There is nothing like a Spring Training injury to deflate the value of a great player.
Normally, he'd be expected to be amongst the most expensive players in an NL-only draft, and this season was expected to be no different. $40 is not out of the question in a keeper league, and this is where I expected him to go.
What causes the deflation are two factors. The first is the fear of wasting $40 on a player who will not contribute enough to matter for the upcoming season. No matter how you cut it, there would be endless second-guessing and alternate scenarios build around how a team could have spent that $40 - an extra $1 for the now-apparent breakout player, $20 for two hitters that would have produced versus those two sleepers who kept on sleeping and so on.
The second factor is the disproportionate weight Roto players give to injuries in Spring Training and those that may last 3 months. If Gagne were out for three months, he’d be ready to return in the beginning of June if he could throw and the middle of June if he needed a couple weeks of games to build arm strength.
What is going on in June in Roto? Teams are beginning to analyze whether or not their standings are truly reflective of a bad team or bad luck. While I believe this is too early to give-up, others do. What needs to be considered is the season still has 100+ games remaining! While waiting for a player to return in two months takes more patience than some of the ADHD-afflicted Roto owners can bare, it is the patient ones who benefit as adding a stud closer, at a minimum, alleviates the need to trade for one. Or better allows you to get full-value in return if you do trade him.
This is much more beneficial than the panic that sets in on draft day when considering how much to bid on a player who can’t help for tow more months.
Early reports say this type of injury could take six weeks to heal. I could not help reacting with glee. There is nothing like a Spring Training injury to deflate the value of a great player.
Normally, he'd be expected to be amongst the most expensive players in an NL-only draft, and this season was expected to be no different. $40 is not out of the question in a keeper league, and this is where I expected him to go.
What causes the deflation are two factors. The first is the fear of wasting $40 on a player who will not contribute enough to matter for the upcoming season. No matter how you cut it, there would be endless second-guessing and alternate scenarios build around how a team could have spent that $40 - an extra $1 for the now-apparent breakout player, $20 for two hitters that would have produced versus those two sleepers who kept on sleeping and so on.
The second factor is the disproportionate weight Roto players give to injuries in Spring Training and those that may last 3 months. If Gagne were out for three months, he’d be ready to return in the beginning of June if he could throw and the middle of June if he needed a couple weeks of games to build arm strength.
What is going on in June in Roto? Teams are beginning to analyze whether or not their standings are truly reflective of a bad team or bad luck. While I believe this is too early to give-up, others do. What needs to be considered is the season still has 100+ games remaining! While waiting for a player to return in two months takes more patience than some of the ADHD-afflicted Roto owners can bare, it is the patient ones who benefit as adding a stud closer, at a minimum, alleviates the need to trade for one. Or better allows you to get full-value in return if you do trade him.
This is much more beneficial than the panic that sets in on draft day when considering how much to bid on a player who can’t help for tow more months.
Wednesday, February 23, 2005
Colorado Rockies
One of the hardest decision to make is whether to pursue the Colorado closer.
The park is horrendous for pitchers and quickly ruins anyone who has any success elsewhere. Remember when Mike Hampton could pitch?
Last season Shawn Chacon racked-up 35 saves but with nightmare ratios. Not the 5.25 ERA and 1.50 WHIP that causes relievers to spend the entire season in the free agent pool, but an astounding horrific 7.11 ERA and 1.94 WHIP.
Some may counter that the addition of a Randy Johnson (2.60 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over 245.2 innings) provides enough to offset the horror of Chacon's ratios. Somewhat true. The combined ratios of the continuum extremes is 3.52 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Good numbers and certainly the ratio is enough the the top spot in an NL-only league.
However, RJ comes at a price tag of $35+ and that is to pay for 2.60/0.90 ratios not 3.52/1.11. A SP with those numbers should go between $20 and $30 in an NL-only keeper league.
But what about the cost of the closer? I have little doubt the Colorado closer would go for $17 in a draft assuming Todd Jones type ratios (4.50/1.50). The question becomes is 3.52/1.11/35 saves worth $50+.
I say, "Yes with equivocation!"
The equivocating arises from the fact you must get RJ in an environment where every other team in the league knows the enormous effects 240 innings of 2.60 ERA and 0.90 WHIP has on a team's ratios and wants RJ on their team.
The two most-frequently mentioned candidates are Chin-Hui Tsao and Brian Fuentes. With the worst-case scenario being Chacon's ratios and with the fair value of the Colorado closer being $17, what would anyone pay for either?
A few dollars? $10 apiece (a frequent salary of Rockies pitchers as most are plucked from the free agent pool) if nabbed late last season in hopes of winning the off-season closer sweepstakes?
One must also consider that most Colorado relievers are left in the pool because the best have ratios in the 4.50/1.40 and above range.
With no help from ratios and signifcant risk of damage to those ratios (If RJ's ratios can be damaged by 35% in ERA and 23% in WHIP, imagine what happens to a SP with slightly above average ones with fewer IP!), the Colorado closer must be cheap and a co-closing situation entails minimal bids.
A few dollars each with the likelihood the loser ends up in the free agent pool via waivers.
The park is horrendous for pitchers and quickly ruins anyone who has any success elsewhere. Remember when Mike Hampton could pitch?
Last season Shawn Chacon racked-up 35 saves but with nightmare ratios. Not the 5.25 ERA and 1.50 WHIP that causes relievers to spend the entire season in the free agent pool, but an astounding horrific 7.11 ERA and 1.94 WHIP.
Some may counter that the addition of a Randy Johnson (2.60 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over 245.2 innings) provides enough to offset the horror of Chacon's ratios. Somewhat true. The combined ratios of the continuum extremes is 3.52 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Good numbers and certainly the ratio is enough the the top spot in an NL-only league.
However, RJ comes at a price tag of $35+ and that is to pay for 2.60/0.90 ratios not 3.52/1.11. A SP with those numbers should go between $20 and $30 in an NL-only keeper league.
But what about the cost of the closer? I have little doubt the Colorado closer would go for $17 in a draft assuming Todd Jones type ratios (4.50/1.50). The question becomes is 3.52/1.11/35 saves worth $50+.
I say, "Yes with equivocation!"
The equivocating arises from the fact you must get RJ in an environment where every other team in the league knows the enormous effects 240 innings of 2.60 ERA and 0.90 WHIP has on a team's ratios and wants RJ on their team.
The two most-frequently mentioned candidates are Chin-Hui Tsao and Brian Fuentes. With the worst-case scenario being Chacon's ratios and with the fair value of the Colorado closer being $17, what would anyone pay for either?
A few dollars? $10 apiece (a frequent salary of Rockies pitchers as most are plucked from the free agent pool) if nabbed late last season in hopes of winning the off-season closer sweepstakes?
One must also consider that most Colorado relievers are left in the pool because the best have ratios in the 4.50/1.40 and above range.
With no help from ratios and signifcant risk of damage to those ratios (If RJ's ratios can be damaged by 35% in ERA and 23% in WHIP, imagine what happens to a SP with slightly above average ones with fewer IP!), the Colorado closer must be cheap and a co-closing situation entails minimal bids.
A few dollars each with the likelihood the loser ends up in the free agent pool via waivers.
Oakland A's
When I say that Billy Beane made a mistake, I know I am bucking conventional wisdom. He is the Golden Child and can do no wrong in the eyes of the most national sports writers. (any mention fo the Mark Bellhorn trade?)
What he did was make two bail trades and bad ones at that. He quit on the 2005 season in hopes of returning to play-off levels in 2006. What makes his deals bad is the high levels of uncertainty attached to the main pieces involved - Dan Meyer, Dan Haren and Daric Barton.
Meyer has yet to pitch in the majors much less in the AL where he won't get to face the pitcher everytime through the line-up. Dan Haren has major league experience and could be expected to perform at the 4.50+ ERA level (Simple rule of thumb - add 1.00 to his NL ERA and fudge positively for experience. Unscientific and statistically unsound, yeah, but I just gave a range of 4.50 to 5.50. Are you claiming this isn't where he'll end-up?)
Barton has to hit like Roy Hobbs to make any difference in 2006.
As for the others, Charles Thomas does not walk and is old for his experience. Juan Cruz may be OK but a switch the the starting rotation puts him in the same category as Haren.
Kiko Calero may end-up the best of the bunch in 2005 as he could step-in and close once it is apparent the A's will only win 70 games this year and Dotel is traded along with Durazo and Hatteberg.
My guess is 1st week in May.
What he did was make two bail trades and bad ones at that. He quit on the 2005 season in hopes of returning to play-off levels in 2006. What makes his deals bad is the high levels of uncertainty attached to the main pieces involved - Dan Meyer, Dan Haren and Daric Barton.
Meyer has yet to pitch in the majors much less in the AL where he won't get to face the pitcher everytime through the line-up. Dan Haren has major league experience and could be expected to perform at the 4.50+ ERA level (Simple rule of thumb - add 1.00 to his NL ERA and fudge positively for experience. Unscientific and statistically unsound, yeah, but I just gave a range of 4.50 to 5.50. Are you claiming this isn't where he'll end-up?)
Barton has to hit like Roy Hobbs to make any difference in 2006.
As for the others, Charles Thomas does not walk and is old for his experience. Juan Cruz may be OK but a switch the the starting rotation puts him in the same category as Haren.
Kiko Calero may end-up the best of the bunch in 2005 as he could step-in and close once it is apparent the A's will only win 70 games this year and Dotel is traded along with Durazo and Hatteberg.
My guess is 1st week in May.
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