Thursday, March 03, 2005

Toronto Blue Jays

Justin Speier was named the closer by manager John Gibbons.

This should be taken with a grain of salt, though as Toronto GM JP Ricciardi said Speier and last year's closer (for a time), Jason Frasor, would compete for the job. He also mentioned everyone's closer sleeper, Brandon League, would also see some opportunites.

And to make the situation more convoluted, the GM also includes Billy Koch, who successfully held the job in 2001, and was traded following that season for Ted Lilly.

Clearly, the Blue Jay's closer role is up for grabs. Every team will be hoping to land the Jays reliever who grabs hold of the job and runs with it. History, though, it not on any Jays reliever's side.

In 2003, Aquilino Lopez finished the year as the closer and racked-up 16 Saves. He took the job from Cliff Pollitte (12 Saves) who took it from Juan Acevedo (6 Saves) who was given it after Kelvim Escobar had a few bad outings and was converted to the starting rotation (after racking-up 38 saves in 2002.)

While hindsight allows one to see that two successive closers (Lopez & Escobar) did not make it through the following season with the same role on the same team, A-Lo owners entered the 2004 draft feeling great - a $30 closer in a $10 salary. (Any closer should be expected to fetch $30 in a standard AL-only 4X4 keeper league. In the NL? See this.)

Unfortunately, he got off to a slow start, and the role was taken away from him and given to Kerry Ligtenburg (5 Saves) and then to Jason Frasor (17 Saves). He ran into trouble and lost the job to Justin Speier (7 Saves) who lost it to Miguel Batista who accumulated 5 Saves in September. He was then moved back into the rotation this past off-season.

No one should be left with any impression except that closers change a lot in Toronto and that this season looks to be no different. (One only needs only recall the opening paragraphs of this post.)

With this established pattern of behavior, Roto players should not expect any Toronto closer to hold the job for the season. At the first signs of trouble, the job will be given to someone else.

This information should be used when bidding at the draft. Don't go more than $10 on any Jays reliever.

More importantly, during the season, you should not be hesitant to trade the closer du jour if he resides on your team as he will likely lose the job and you the quality players a closer would fetch in return. Also, trade for those Jays relievers who have not had the job yet as they will likely get an opportunity.

And finally, if a veteran ends the season with the job expect him to lose it the folowing year or be traded!

(Guess who is a deep, deep sleeper in NL-only leagues?)

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