When I say that Billy Beane made a mistake, I know I am bucking conventional wisdom. He is the Golden Child and can do no wrong in the eyes of the most national sports writers. (any mention fo the Mark Bellhorn trade?)
What he did was make two bail trades and bad ones at that. He quit on the 2005 season in hopes of returning to play-off levels in 2006. What makes his deals bad is the high levels of uncertainty attached to the main pieces involved - Dan Meyer, Dan Haren and Daric Barton.
Meyer has yet to pitch in the majors much less in the AL where he won't get to face the pitcher everytime through the line-up. Dan Haren has major league experience and could be expected to perform at the 4.50+ ERA level (Simple rule of thumb - add 1.00 to his NL ERA and fudge positively for experience. Unscientific and statistically unsound, yeah, but I just gave a range of 4.50 to 5.50. Are you claiming this isn't where he'll end-up?)
Barton has to hit like Roy Hobbs to make any difference in 2006.
As for the others, Charles Thomas does not walk and is old for his experience. Juan Cruz may be OK but a switch the the starting rotation puts him in the same category as Haren.
Kiko Calero may end-up the best of the bunch in 2005 as he could step-in and close once it is apparent the A's will only win 70 games this year and Dotel is traded along with Durazo and Hatteberg.
My guess is 1st week in May.
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