Fantasy Baseball 2010: Jay Bruce's Expected ADP

I expect Bruce’s ADP to be well over 100 everywhere except the smartiest of the smart pants expert drafts. Last year, he was a hot play around the 6th and 7th round. This year, no one with a modicum of common sense will fail to penalize him a couple rounds – at least.

The 7th-10th rounds are typically spent getting SP and closers. Putting Bruce after that makes him an 11th rounder – ADP 110-121 in most leagues.

Fantasy Basketball Or Fantasy Football

RotoSynthesis >> Why Fantasy Basketball is Better Than Fantasy Football: "I'm in three football leagues and four basketball leagues this year, and historically, I've always liked fantasy basketball much more, and there are plenty of reasons why:"

Start Sit Made Easier: Ten Worst Run Defenses

Rush Rank	Team	RYA	Vs	Decision
32	Buffalo	246.3	HOU	Start Steve Slaton
31	Tampa Bay	156	BYE	Start 0
30	NY Jets	148.7	MIA	Start Ronnie Brown
29	Cleveland	146.3	@CHI	Start Matt Forte
28	Kansas City	141.3	BYE	Start 0
27	New England	137.3	BYE	Start 0
26	Oakland	135.7	@SD	Start LaDanian Tomlinson
25	San Diego	133	OAK	Start Justin Fargas
24	Baltimore	131.3	DEN	Start Knowshon Moreno
23	Tennessee	129.3	JAX	Start Maurice Jones-Drew

Fantasy Basketball Trade Advice

A 12-team keeper league in its 1st year, $200 cap. Would you deal a $1 PG Jonny Flynn for a $10 PF Tyrus Thomas? My experience has shown there are a limited free agent options to address assists while the 12 point/8 rebound/1.5 block big man seems to emerge all the time.

My instinct is to say no. What is yours?

Start Sit Made Easier: Ten Worst Pass Defenses

Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
32	Tennessee	346.7	JAX	Start Mike Sims-Walker
31	Minnesota	329	@GB	Start Greg Jennings
30	Cincinnati	269.7	BYE	Start 0
29	Seattle	265.3	@DAL	Start Miles Austin
27	Atlanta	256	@NO	Start Marques Colston
27	Kansas City	256	BYE	Start 0
26	Baltimore	251.3	DEN	Start Brandon Mrshalll
25	Cleveland	250.3	@CHI	Start Devan Hester
24	St. Louis	248.7	@DET	Start Calvin Johnson
23	Jacksonville	242.3	@TEN	Start Nate Washington?

Start/Sit: Andre Johnson

Courtesy of Will Carroll.

Will Carroll's Black & Blue Report at Football Outsiders:

"The pain and shock is the problem here and if [Andre] Johnson heals normally and there is really nothing more here than just the contusion, he should be back for the Texans' next game."

One must note that Stephania Bell of ESPN.com is on the other end of the contiuum.

Start Sit Made Easier: The Top 10 Run Defenses

Rush Rank	Team	RYA	Vs	Decision
1	Houston	45	@BUF	Sit Marshawn Lynch
2	Arizona	55.3	CAR	Sit Dangelo Williams
3	Seattle	59.3	@DAL	Sit Tashard Choice_Marion Barber_Felix Jones
4	Green Bay	66.3	MIN	Sit Adrian Peterson
5	Pittsburgh	72.3	BYE	Sit 0
6	Denver	82.7	@BAL	Sit Ray Rice
7	Carolina	83.7	@AZ	Sit Tim Hightower_Beanie Wells
8	Philadelphia	87	NYG	Sit Ahmad Bradshaw_Brandon Jacobs
9	Minnesota	95	@GB	Sit Ryan Grant
10	Jacksonville	97.7	@TEN	Sit Chris Johnson

Start Sit Made Easier: Top 10 Pass Defenses

The one time I leave off the caveat about low passing yards allowed often dependent on crappy run defenses will be the time ESPN will be reviewing my site in preparation of a job offer. I wouldn't consider sitting any of the below WRs with the exception of Michael Crabtree and Bernard Berrian. Even then...

Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
1	Buffalo	68	HOU	Sit Andre Johnson_Kevin Walter
2	Carolina	119.7	@AZ	Sit Larry Fitzgerald_Anquan Boldin
3	Washington	140	BYE	Sit 0
4	Green Bay	141	MIN	Sit Sydney Rice_Bernard Berrian
5	Tampa Bay	152	BYE	Sit 0
6	Indianapolis	167.3	SF	Sit Michael Crabtree
7	NY Giants	170.7	@PHI	Sit DeSean Jackson
8	New Orleans	183.3	ATL	Sit Roddy White
9	New England	187	BYE	Sit 0
10	Pittsburgh	188.7	BYE	Sit 0

Waiver Wire: Fred Davis or Shonne Greene

With the season ending injury to Washington Redskins TE Chris Cooley and the subsequent eight reception game by his back-up Fred Davis, those in need of a quality TE look like they have the opportunity of the season to add a top TE from the free agent pool. The sticky question is whether to use your #1 waiver pick on Davis or on New York Jets' RB Shonne Greene.

As a rule of thumb, the RB goes 1st. However, the TE position has been so disappointing that using the waiver priority on Davis is justifiable. For example, Dustin Keller has proven himself a major bust. Jermichael Finley only remains unbusted becaue Keller has been so awful.

Fantasy Baseball 2010: DH-Only Part II

Yesterday, I noted those DH-only qualifiers who failed to make 20 appearances at any position in 2009. Today, the DH-only qualifiers include those who have made at least 20 appearances at DH and fewer than 20 at any other position. It more of a mixed league sleepers list, but many will go for cheap in single format auction leagues.

The greatest sleeper potential when combined with likely auction price? DH Randy Ruiz of the Toronto Blue Jays.

David Ortiz
Hideki Matsui
Pat Burrell
Mike Jacobs
Jim Thome
Ken Griffey Jr.
Vlad Guerrero
Travis Hafner
Mike Sweeney
Andruw Jones
Randy Ruiz
Nomar Garciaparra

2010 Fantasy Baseball: DH-only

In 20-appearance eligibility leagues, there always exist a subset of players who did not make an appearance at any position at least 20 times. Amongst this group, there exists the dreaded DH-only qualifier thanks to his having appeared as a DH the most.

Before the final two games of the 2009 season, Texas Rangers rookie Julio Borbon was the potential poster child for this rule quirk. Thanks to his starting the last two games in the OF, he reached the 20-appearance threshhold.

That doesn't mean there aren't others whose status as DH-only will hinder there sleeper ability. Or enhance it if you have the open spot.

The list is short and inconsequential in mixed formats and nearly inconsequential in single league formats with the exception of Larrish and, maybe, Cliff Floyd.

1. Jeff Larish
2. Dave Dellucci
3. Joe Dillon
4. Cliff Floyd
5. Eric Munson

Week Eight Waiver Wire

Not a good week. How could it be when teams on the wrong end of an ass-whooping can't even score a meaningless TD to climb into the double digits in points. However, there is one player who has the potential to be a Donald Brown type of player - New York Jets 3rd rounder Shonne Greene.

If I were holding the top waiver for the next big thing, it would be Greene. He doesn't quite slot into the Leon Washington change of pace role, but he is big and fresh. 10-12 touches plus a goaline carry or two means 10 or so points per week.

A situation worth watching is the Oakland Raiders QB. IF JaMarcus Russell is permanently benched, then a WR will emerge who offers the potential to be a Donnie Avery type of producer. Russell is that bad. His replacement will immediately given the Oakland receivers an uptick in value.

RB Shonne Greene, New York Jets
WR Chaz Schillens, Oakland Raiders
QB Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
WR David Clowney, New York Jets

Week Eight Waiver Wire

On Bye: Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins

WR is the most obvious place to target on the waiver wire as early as possible, but the true alpha play is pre-empting the TE pool. The position has been extremely disappointing with little production available in the pool. With three #1 TEs on bye, those owners will be compelled to start the dregs of the position if you have the ability to grab the top options.

Starters on bye:
QB: Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Cedric Benson, Rashard Mendenhall, Cadillac Williams, Clinton Portis
WR: Chad OchoCinco, Dwayne Bowe, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes
TE: Heath Miller, Kellen Winslow, Chris Cooley

Start or Sit TE Dustin Keller

When there is blood in the streets, that is the best time to invest. Or something like that.

The blood in the street belongs to New York Jets TE Dustin Keller. How do I know whose it is without CSI Miami? I am sitting him in favor of Jermichael Finley in one league and Ben Watson in another.

I do like Watson as a receving option given the Patriots are without WR Julian Edelman and RB Sammie Morris - two of the top five receiving options in New England. Watson looks like he could be filling the checkdown roles of Julian and Sammie.

Start or Sit: Marion Barber, Felix Jones or Tashard Choice

Stephania Bell's Injury Blog:

"Marion Barber and Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys, (P): On Thursday I outlined the issues facing Barber and Jones as they recover from their various ailments. They are both listed as probable after practicing all week but how they'll be utilized, especially with Tashard Choice being the only truly healthy back, remains a bit of a mystery. It would not surprise me to see the Cowboys be most cautious with Jones to see how his knee responds to game conditions (read: hits)."

The gambler in me says Choice is the man.

Week Seven Start Sit

WR Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals; A high ankle sprain typically takes a month or so to heal. SI' Peter King is reporting Boldin looks like he will play. Despite the porven skill of playing through pain, I'd sit Boldin. The risky decision is playing him in spite of an injury proven to keep players out.

RB Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants: When Jacobs left last week's blowout with a stinger, it looked as if Ahmad Bradshaw would have the opportunity for full-time carries and the chance to show he was a 3rd down option, too. While Bradshaw's missed opportunity has inked little attention, even less has been paid to Jacob's stinger.

WR Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers: One of many elite WRs who has disappointed in the year it became consensus to believe taking them early was smart. Jennings has battled a wrist ailment and now a hip one. I'm starting him myself, but, man, I don't feel good about it.

RB Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys: A three-headed monster (Marion Barber, Jones and Tashard Choice) with just one fully healthy back (Choice). No way I start Felix Jones in his 1st week back.

BaseballAmerica.com: Blog: Baseball America Prospects Blog » Blog Archive » Final Minor League Leaderboards: Batting#more-6810

BaseballAmerica.com: Blog: Baseball America Prospects Blog » Blog Archive » Final Minor League Leaderboards: Batting#more-6810: "Final Minor League Leaderboards: Batting"

Start Sit Made Easier: Ten Worst Run Defenses

How the mighty have fallen! Look who ranks as 10th worse over the past three games.

Rush Rank	Team	RYA	Vs	Decision
32	Buffalo	246.3	@CAR	Start Dangelo Williams_Jonathan Stewart
31	Tampa Bay	156	NE	Start Laurence Maroney_Benjarvis Green Ellis
30	NY Jets	148.7	@OAK	Start Justin Fargas
29	Cleveland	146.3	GB	Start Ryan Grant
28	San Diego	142.3	@KC	Start Larry Johnson
27	Kansas City	141.3	SD	Start LaDanian Tomlinson
26	New England	137.3	@TB	Start Cadillac Williams
25	Carolina	136.7	BUF	Start Marshawn Lynch
24	Oakland	135.7	NYJ	Start Thomas Jones_Leon Washington
23	Baltimore	131.3	BYE	Start 0

Will Carroll & Percy Harvin

Will Carroll's Black & Blue Report at Football Outsiders:

"[Percy] Harvin could be out a while with this, or he might get into a cycle where the painkillers allow him to play, but not heal...this isn't something that's unusual in isolation, although it is troubling. As a matter of standard practice, we have to all look at Malcolm Gladwell's comparison of football to dogfighting and wonder just how right he is."

Just A Hunch

Bandied about is the stat that Peyton Manning has thrown for 300+ yards in the Colts 1st six games. With the Rams up next, the commentariet is falling over itself to predict a 7th.

I am not so sure consensus prediction about any individual performance is so easy. Sort of like predicting any one value using the average.