Start Sit Made Easier: The Top 10 Pass Defenses

Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
1	NY Jets	134.7	@NE	Sit Randy Moss_Wes Welker
2	Baltimore	143.7	IND	Sit Reggie Wayne
3	Chicago	145.3	PHI	Sit DeSean Jackson
4	Washington	150	@DAL	Sit Miles Austin_Roy Williams
5	Tennessee	190	@HOU	Sit Andre Johnson
6	Jacksonville	192.7	BUF	Sit Lee Evans?
7	Oakland	194.3	CIN	Sit Chad OchoCinco
7	Denver	194.3	SD	Sit Vincent Jackson
9	Cleveland	199	@DET	Sit Calvin Johnson
10	Kansas City	203.7	PIT	Sit Hines Ward

Fantasy Baseball 2010: Now Or Later

Do you over emphasise future production over current production in keeper leagues? Most serious players in that format do.

The alpha opportunity is to deal future value for current production A real life example from one of my leagues. A $23 Andre Ethier was dealt for three highly regarded prospects, none of which will out produce Ethier in 2010.

2010 Fantasy Football Draft: Top 4

1. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
2. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens

On Wall Street, there is an adage that says no portfolio manager gets fired for buying IBM. (Maybe Google in the 21st century?) In fantasy football, anyone can place Adrian Peterson a #1 and expect no criticism.

What the three non-AD RBs need to do is finish the season healthy, and no one will cry landing the 1st through 4th picks in 2010 drafts.

Week Eleven Waiver Wire Pick Ups

With the bye weeks finished and just three weeks until the fantasy football play-offs begin, the team you have is as strong as it can be at this point. As a result, adding players via the waiver wire will be more all-or-nothing than looking for 5-10 points of fill-in performance.

With that in mind, three players emerged on Sunday who can become Flex/WR2/RB2 type of players. Two are likely rostered and the third has appeared in this column previously.

1. WR Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams: With QB Marc Bulger looking healthy, Donnie Avery could become the 5th round sleeper so many thought he would be. Expected production of 6/75/1 is possible every week.

2. RB Jason Snelling, Atlanta Falcons: By far the most interesting pick-up. With receiving capability, Snelling offers more than Michael Turner did in PPR formats. A max free agent bid for those teams whose fantasy season rides on high risk gambles hitting must do so on Snelling. 100 total yards and a TD is not outrageous.

3. RB Justin Forsett, Seattle Seahawks: If Julius Jones kept Forsett on the waiver wire, then that no longer exists after his 100+ yards rushing performance. Solid RB2 should be expected.

Week Nine Start Sit

RB Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles: If he is active, one cannot be faulted for sitting him. If I had a better option, I'd sit Westbrook anyways.

RB Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs: Wow. Worse decision: Jamaal Charles or a Washington Redskins' RB not-named Ladell Betts? Mike Sellers or Jamaal Charles? I'd sit him barring a nightmare situation at RB.

WR Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals: If he is active, expect the Cardinals to try and get him the ball. Like Westbrook, though, I'd sit him if I had a better option.

RB Ladell Betts, Washington Redskins: Can he really sit out given the chance to play following Clinton Portis' concussion?

WR Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions: Many a fantasy team sees their season circling the bowl thanks to the immensely disappointing season of Johnson. Unlike Westbrook and Boldin, there doesn't appear to be recent injury news to cause concern.

Start Sit: DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart

Stephani Bell: Getting relief from the bye week - ESPN: "Williams, however, injured his knee (no specifics; coach John Fox referred to it earlier in the week as a 'tweak') last Sunday. After not practicing Wednesday, Stewart returned to limited practice Thursday but then was unable to practice Friday. Regular readers of this blog know that I am very suspicious when a player is unable to practice after initially returning to practice post-injury. Williams is now a game-time decision. This may be a week in which Stewart sees increased action, even if Williams is ultimately active."

The switch in pronouns makes it seem as if it is Jonathan Stewart Ms. Bell talks about, The final sentence says Williams. Other reports support the Williams angle.

One has little choice but to start an active Williams and hope this knee injury is nothing. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jonathan Stewart have a heavier day in terms of touches though. I'd start Stewart as my Flex - at a minimum.

Fantasy Baseball Drafting Strategy For OF Position Scarcity

In my 1st 2010 fantasy baseball mock draft, I drafted a team of players whose track record is limited to a season or two of top production - SS Troy Tulowitzki in the 2nd, 2B/OF Ben Zobrist in the 4th and Pablo Sandoval in the 5th. In between I sprinkled in established veterans - 3B Alex Rodriguez in the 1st, Brian McCann in the 3rd and 1B Derrek Lee in the 8th - and veterans with injury concerns - OF Carlos Beltran in the 6th and SP Chris Carpenter in the 7th.

What stuck out to me was the relative lack of OF production. "OF production" means a general lack of established producers in the 30/100/.300 area. This is often conveyed by the fantasy expert community as representative of position scarcity.

The question is how to draft a team around the premise of scarce OF talent. The strategy is to build a strong infield around players whose expected production exceeds its peers by more than the expected production of the lower tiers of outfielders whose efforts won't trail too far behind their peers. The difference between the expected production of C Brian McCann and a 15th round catcher is greater than the difference between a 3rd/4th round Nick Markakis and 16th round Franklyn Guitierrez.

Call it higher volatility amongst the infield positions versus lower volatility in the outfield.

Start Sit: Clinton Portis

From Will Carroll's Black & Blue Report at Football Outsiders:

"Clinton Portis had a bad concussion. Jim Zorn said he was knocked out and after the game, Portis had no memory of the incident. Right there, at best, Portis is looking at a Grade II concussion, though the time of unconsciousness isn't always the best indicator of how severe the concussion is. As Dr. Jorge Cantu, one of the leading experts in the field, explained to me earlier this year, the only way to grade a concussion is after all the symptoms have cleared. (Cantu should know -- the grading scale is named the Cantu scale because he invented it.) Portis will undergo ImPACT testing and other medical tests to help determine when he'll be back. We'll have to watch to see if he's exhibiting any symptoms at the end of the week, but it's very unlikely that he'll play this weekend, leaving the carries to Ladell Betts."

The strikethrough is mine. I have no idea what the Redskins will do at RB, but there is little reason your fantasy team should be dependent on that pie-in-the-sky gamble.

Start Sit Made Easier: Ten Worst Rush Defenses

Rush Rank	Team	RYA	Vs	Decision
32	Buffalo	206.7	@TEN	Start Chris Johnson
31	Tampa Bay	181.3	@MIA	Start Ronnie Brown
30	Tennessee	172.7	BUF	Start Marshawn Lynch
29	Chicago	171.3	@SF	Start Frank Gore
28	Cleveland	170.7	BAL	Start Ray Rice
27	Oakland	161	KC	Start Jamaal Charles
26	New Orleans	160	@STL	Start Steven Jackson
25	St. Louis	149.7	NO	Start Pierre Thomas_Mike Bell
24	Arizona	149	SEA	Start Julius Jones
23	Kansas City	142	@OAK	Start Justin Fargas

Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

Riggleman: Guzman a second baseman | nationals.com: News: "'I don't know if Desmond will be the shortstop, but as I stand here right now, I would be happy with it, because I know what kind of effort I'm going to get,' Riggleman said. 'I know the energy that he brings to the team. I know how athletic he is. I'm excited about Desmond's future. He has a future somewhere. It might be this year.'"

This doesn't comport with the anonymous NL sources who told FOXSports the Nats want veterans Alex Gonzalez or Adam Everett to play SS for their last place, going nowhere team, but it is the kind of statement that strengthens a sleeper like Ian Desmond.

Over the past three seasons, Desmond has seen his SLG go from the high .300s in 2006 to the high 400s in 2008. At SS, he is a sleeper. Add-in double digit HRs and 20+ SBs and you have the potential to send the on-line baseball community into spasms of apolexy if the Nats waste space on a veteran SS.

Sart Sit Made Easier: Ten Worst Pass Defenses

Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
32	Detroit	294	@MIN	Start Sydney Rice_Bernard Berrian
31	Cleveland	286.7	BAL	Start Derrick Mason
30	Miami	283.3	TB	Start Antonio Bryant
29	Cincinnati	268	@PIT	Start Hines Ward_Santana Moss
28	Atlanta	266	@CAR	Start Steve Smith
27	Tennessee	263	BUF	Start Lee Evans
26	Minnesota	260.3	DET	Start Calvin Johnson
25	San Francisco	252.7	CHI	Start Devan Hester
24	Philadelphia	247.7	@SD	Start Vincent Jackson
23	St. Louis	241	NO	Start Marques Colston

Start Sit Made Easier: The Top Run Defenses

Rush Rank	Team	RYA	Vs	Decision
1	Cincinnati	68	@PIT	Sit Rashard Mendenhall
2	Pittsburgh	69	CIN	Sit Cedric Benson
3	Houston	76	BYE	Sit 0
4	Carolina	77	ATL	Sit Michael Turner
5	Green Bay	83.3	DAL	Sit Tashard Choice_Marion Barber_Felix Jones
6	Minnesota	92.3	DET	Sit Kevin Smith
7	Philadelphia	93	@SD	Sit LaDanian Tomlinson
8	NY Giants	95.3	BYE	Sit 0
9	Seattle	96.3	@AZ	Sit Tim Hightower_Beanie Wells
10	Dallas	97.3	@GB	Sit Ryan Grant

Start Sit Made Easier: The Top 10 Pass Defenses

Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
1	New England	115	@IND	Sit Reggie Wayne
2	NY Jets	116.7	JAX	Sit Mike Sims-Walker
3	San Diego	117	PHI	Sit DeSean Jackson
4	Washington	141	DEN	Sit Brandon Marshalll
5	Green Bay	174.3	DAL	Sit Miles Austin
6	Chicago	187.7	@SF	Sit Michael Crabtree
7	Jacksonville	191	@NYJ	Sit Braylon Edwards_Jerricho Cotchery
8	Oakland	197.7	KC	Sit Dwayne Bowe
9	Tampa Bay	198.7	@MIA	Sit Devone Bess?
10	Indianapolis	200	NE	Sit Randy Moss_Wes Welker

2010 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft With 4th Pick

Player Team Acquired
3B Alex Rodriguez NYY R1
SS Troy Tulowitzki COL R2
C Brian McCann ATL R3
2B Ben Zobrist TB R4
3B Pablo Sandoval SF R5
OF Carlos Beltran NYM R6
SP Chris Carpenter STL R7
1B Derrek Lee CHC R8
C Matt Wieters BAL R9
RP Ryan Franklin STL R10
RP Brian Wilson SF R11
OF Juan Rivera ANA R12
OF Jermaine Dye CHW R13
SP Neftali Feliz TEX R14
RP David Price TB R15
OF Franklin Gutierrez SEA R16
OF Dexter Fowler COL R17
SP Mark Buehrle CHW R18
SS Everth Cabrera SD R19
SP Stephen Strasburg FA R20
RP Billy Wagner NYM R21
OF Kyle Blanks SD R22
SP Derek Holland TEX R23

Baltimore Orioles Top 11 Prospects

Baseball Prospectus | Future Shock: Orioles Top 11 Prospects:

"Five-Star Prospects
1. Brian Matusz, LHP
Four-Star Prospects
2. Josh Bell, 3B
3. Jake Arrieta, RHP
4. Zach Britton, LHP
Three-Star Prospects
5. Matt Hobgood, RHP
6. Brandon Erbe, RHP
7. Brandon Synder, 1B
8. Mychal Givens, SS
9. Caleb Joseph, C
Two-Star Prospects
10. Brandon Waring, 1B/3B
11. Cameron Coffey, RHP"

Week Ten Waiver Wire: Lance Long & Earl Bennett

WR Earl Bennett, Chicago Bears
Why? A pre-season sleeper thanks to being QB Jay Cutler's main target in their Vanderbilt days, Bennett has failed to impress with just 25 receptions in the team's 1st 7 games. With 9 yesterday, he looks like he has earned another chance to be that sleeper. With the fantasy football season nearly over, there is likely no need to rush to add him via a waiver claim.

WR Lance Long, Kansas City Chiefs
Why? Eight receptions in a game for a team who has not had a 2nd WR emerge will always garner attention. However, I believe the recently added Chris Chambers will trump Long on name recognition and a 54-yard TD. I'm attending more closely to the eleven targets Long received and the four Chambers had.

Week ten Waiver Wire: Ladell Betts

RB Ladell Betts, Washington Redskins
Why? Three years ago, Betts was a trendy sleeper and remained one two seasons ago. In 2009, he fell off the radar. With RB Clinton Portis leaving with a concussion, Betts becomes the top back. While FB Mike Sellers looked like the 3rd down back yesterday (3/56 one three targets to Betts 1/23/1), Betts does have a 53-reception season under his belt. The question is whether a professional running back's effectiveness is measure by usage (154 carries combined in 2007 & 2008) or chronologically (30 years old).

MLB Trade Rumors: Nelson Cruz

Baseball Prospectus | On the Beat: Fire Up the Hot Stove: "Though Cruz hit 33 homers and was selected to the All-Star Game this past season, the Rangers are looking to sell high because they feel he had a career year."

Statements like that will quickly let other teams know not to buy high either.

Start Sit Brian Westbrook

Twitter / Adam Schefter: Two people have told me th ...: "Two people have told me that Eagles RB Brian Westbrook is not expected to play tonight versus the Cowboys"

No way, no how, do I start Westbrook. Sunday night inactives won't be known until the 2nd half of the 4 o'clock games.

Start Sit Calvin Johnson

Uncertainty at wide receiver - ESPN: "Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions, (Q): Johnson is one of the key fantasy question marks heading into Week 9 and the Lions haven't made planning any easier by designating him as a game-time decision. Johnson had a similar designation in Week 8 and did not play. It's worth noting, however, that Johnson did very little in practice leading up to last week. Known for his athleticism and acrobatic catches, Johnson would have been at risk of either not playing up to par or reinjury had he returned too soon. This week Johnson has been reported to be running smoothly and has seen increased practice time, including reps with the first-team offense. Coach Jim Schwartz has not tipped his hand as to whether he expects Johnson to play or not and no doubt will want to see him running well in pregame warm-ups before making the final decision. This is a late game, so fantasy owners may be taking a gamble here by waiting until that decision is made. The evidence thus far supports an increased likelihood of Johnson playing as compared to last week, but questionable literally means there is a 50-50 chance it could go either way. The fact that it does come down to game time also belies the fact that Johnson is not at full strength just yet, but there is little doubt if he does play that Stafford will take advantage of his best deep threat."