Jeremy Bonderman

Three off-seasons ago, I targeted three players to take in my minor league draft - Victor Martinez, Jeremy Bonderman and Rich Harden. As I had the top 2 picks and had settled on VMart #1, the question was who to take between Harden and Bonderman.

The Tigers were good to me as they kept Bonderman up with the big boys, and I ended up with Vmart and Harden #s 1 and 2.

After three seasons, VMart and Harden have clearly been better than Bonderman. The question is whether or not Bonderman will breakthrough this year with the type of Roto season that will make him an integral part of a winning team i.e. $25 value for half the price.

He just turned 23 at the end of October. This works in his favor as the perception exists that he has been around for a while and is therefore older than he really is. He has also been hyped for three seasons, and there is likely to exist some fatigue with the hype. This will heavily influence his draft day salary and keep it in the very low double digits/high single digits.

Statistically, there is support for improved performance. His ERA has improved each year. This also bodes well in spite of a strike out rate bouncing around. At his age, I will give the benefit of the doubt and claim he has learned to pitch to contact versus trying to overpower every hitter (more hits and fewer walks support this.)

Also in his favor is the signing of Kenny Rogers, who will be the #1 starter. The pressure to be the ace will abate and could allow Bondy to take the next step.

While I do not expect Bonderman to reach the level Rich Harden has, I would not be surprised if he makes a VMart for Bonderman trade a possibility some time in 2006. And that is defintely a risk I would be willing to take.