Monday, January 30, 2006

San Francisco Giants

With a 39-year-old and 41-year-old starting outfielder, there seems to be a great opportunity to grab a back-up OF for a $1 and wait for an injury. Jason Ellison looks like the best to grab for Roto purposes.

Felipe Alou gave him 352 ABs last year and that level of comfort makes Ellison the top back-up OF to draft. When in doubt, always pick the player whom the manager has already demonstrated a willingness to play. Fortunately, Ellison's speed makes him valuable regardless.

The more intirguing youth play is Dan Ortmeier. He hit 20 HR and stole 35 bases for AA Norwich last season. Whether he can surpass 40-year-old Steve Finley and 28-year-old youngster, Jason Ellison, in Alou's pecking order remains to be seen, but if he makes the Opening Day squad, draft him for a $1 and wait.

If he does not play, he will likely be the player sent down, as a 6th OF would be somewhat superfluous. Recognizing this likelihood of playing or being sent down early in the season allows a Roto team to also open a roster spot early in the year when contributing players can still be had in the pool.

I'd like to recommend the back-up infielder because Vizquel is old and Durham is brittle, but Jose Vizcaino is not worth anything. Ignoring him is of no detriment to a Roto team. However, the Giants have a top prospect, Marcus Sanders, who would be a must-grab the moment he is recalled. Unfortunately, he just finished his first full season in Low A. However, a successful 2006 split between High A and AA makes him a favorite going into 2007 when the Giants will be in a major rebuilding phase. (I first mentioned him here.) His speed and on-base skills should allow him to be a quality middle infielder right away.

On the mound there should not be any surprises, but I would like to recommend Armando Benitez in the bullpen. I know he is well-known but his reputation is worse than his performance. As such, he should be valued less than the other top NL closer like Billy Wagner, Trevor Hoffman, Eric Gagen and Jason Isringhausen.

His 2005 season stats should reinforce that perception, but I want to point out that he was excellent in his late August return from the hamstring tear. Use those numbers to determine his value. (My initial reactions to his late August return are here and here.)

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