The hype surrounding this team is all about their farm system. Chad Billingsley, Andy LaRoche, Joel Guzman and Russ Martin are the top 4 according to Baseball America.
Combine this hype with some the big name free agent signings of Rafael Furcal and Nomar Garciaparra and the perfect environment exists for a sleeper.
One of my top sleepers for 2006 is Hee Seop Choi. I wrote this near last season's end:
Choi is perfect as a sleeper. He has disappointed teams since 2001 after appearing in Baseball America's Top Ten for the Cubs. With that kind of disappointment history, there will be very few teams in anyone's league who have not suffered at Choi's hands - the team that originally drafted him in the minor league draft, the team he was dealt to in a bail trade, the team that obtained him in another bail trade in 2003, the team that traded him again after the head injury, the team that protected him in 2004 and then traded him after his trade to LA, the team that dealt him in the off-season after his Septemebr 2005 benching, the team that protected him in 2005, the team that traded him in 2005.....Oh wait, it finally stopped with me.
Add to this the fact he has an injury-prone player in front of him on the depth charts, and one who is brand new to the position to boot. He is also getting a clean slate with a new manager. For whatever reason, his 6 HR weekend last year was not enough to get him additional ABs for Jim Tracy. The perfect storm exists for a breakout $1 sleeper!
One more point. He will be 27-years-old this year, too! As Jim Cramer says, "Buy! Buy! Buy! House of pleasure!"
The OF is a hodge podge of platoon players and injury-prone ones. This should likely keep all of them under $15 or so at the draft. The one who could obviously earn much more is JD Drew. He has great sabremetrics and that is the tease that he is. If only he stayed healthy, he would put up MVP numbers. Even in his careeer season of 2004, he only played in 145 games.
What I expect soon is for Drew's injury history to be fully reflected in his draft day price. This is around $17. When this occurs, I expect him to stay healthy for an entire season, put up $30 numbers and be a part of a successful Roto team in the same way Cliff Floyd did last season.
I consider him a good "veteran sleeper" as defined here (5th paragraph).
One point I want to make about the farm system. With the signing of Rafael Furcal for three seasons, Joel Guzman's chances of playing SS in the majors are gone. Where he plays is in the air right now, but I'd guess the OF offers the fastest route given the hodge podge of one-year/platoon players they have there right now. The earliest I can see him being recalled in late this summer.
In the bullpen, I love Danys Baez - not because I think he will close with Gagne there but because he offers a great play on a cheap closer for 2007. Growing the love are the recent reports that Gagne is throwing already and looks like he will be ready for Opening Day. That keeps Baez under $10, and I am all over that!
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2 comments:
Last year it began with some early season drama between Drew and Milton Bradley. That issue has been taken care of. Drew gets a bad rep. for being a selfish snobby guy. Otherwise, he'll probably have another breakout year like '04 since the OF is defined.
I do read about Drew being snobby/aloof, but then read he just keeps his own counsel.
I also read that his brother Stephen is the same way.
As long as JD takes his nose out of the air to hit, I could care less.
Star athletes do not become socialized in normal environments. I am not surprised if they are snobs, aloof, detached, whatever.
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