New York Yankees

Today begins my thumbnail sketching of each team and what I see as good risks for 2006. Occasionally, I will cast an eye towards 2007 and beyond and will generally stay away from commenting on obvious Roto studs like ARod.

Where I will focus is possible breakout candidates, closer prospects and players who should be valuable members of a 14 hitters / 9 pitchers Roto squad.

What that means is a player who makes the bottom half of your team stronger as all Roto players can build half a team based solely on past performance.

On offense, I do not see any breakout candidates for 2006. Robinson Cano broke out last season hitting .297 with 14 HR. I expect no one to be taken by surprise this season. Nor do I expect him in too many draft pools as his pool salary from last season likely guarantees he will be protected through the length of his contract and possibly re-upped after that.

What is notable is his 14 HR as a Yankee matched his professional high and his 62 RBI nearly did so (14/66 in Single A Greensboro in 2002.) If you combine his AAA numbers, he set highs in each (18/86).

That is the surprising fact about Cano and is the reason why I expect him to maintain whatever value he had in 2005 with the possibility of slight improvement in 2006. He should hit a couple more HRs, but I do not see him driving in too many more runs as he will hit near the bottom of the order with noted OBP-men like Jason Giambi and Jorge Posada in front of him.

If Cano were available in a draft, I would not hesitate to pay in the high teens for him.

Andy Phillips is nominally the back-up at 1B. Being behind Giambi would normally lead me to conclude he will play frequently as Giambi's glove is lacking, but I recall Giambi played almost everyday at 1B last season as he ripped through the second half.

Also, given Torre's man-love for Bernie and Bern's inability to field a position, Bernie will get most of the DH ABs which will contribute to Giambi being at 1B everyday. This leaves Phillips as a Homer Bush-esque Yankee but with no speed. (In 1998, Bush spent the season with the Yanks and garnered 76 plate appearances.)

What could happen though, is the Yanks cut Phillips lose or trade him mid-season and bring up Eric Duncan, a propsect who looks like he may actually play for the Yankees some day as an inexpensive player. He is justed turned 21 in December, won the AFL MVP and will be in AAA Columbus to start the 2006 season.

All it would take is an injury, most obviously to Bernie to free up DH, and a good start in AAA, and he will be up and in-line to make a Cano-like contribution. Watch him.