Pitching Prospects

John Sickels followed up his hitting prospect question with a pitching one.

While I usually disregard very low level pitchers, I take notice of great strikeouts. If those numbers do not drop off the following season, then I watch the pitcher more closely.

However, I do not trust young pitchers to maintian their dominance and health as they climb the organizational ladder. When one does, he becomes a contender. Unfortunately, this method means it takes a pitcher a few years to reach that level.

Because I scout minor league players for Roto purposes, I also tend to shy away from minor league pitchers because they rarely help a Roto team while gaining major league experience. Because 3 of the 4 hitting categories are counting ones, anything a young hitter does in HRs, RBIs and SBs contributes and the negative effects on AVG is not as large due to a Roto team having more players and thus more team ABs.

For pitchers, ERA and WHIP are the major concern. If a rookie starter throws 150 innings with 4.50 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, those innings will represent 12-15% of the teams innings whereas 400 ABs from a young hitter may only represent half that.

As a result, I am likely to take a hitter after a good low A season but will take a pitcher only after a very good AA season.