Monday, August 31, 2009
Fantasy Football: 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac Explains Matt Cassell
Thanks to the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac, I am a little more knowledgeable about the Kansas City Chiefs' rationale for acquiring QB Matt Cassel beyond some sort of Devil-you-know reasoning.
The money quote:
"Kansas City set an NFL record by using shotgun on 63 percent of offensive plays. Three teams used shotgun at least half the time last year: the Chiefs, the team whose offensive coordinator now coaches the Chiefs (Arizona,50 percent), and the team whose quarterback was traded to the Chiefs (New England, 55 percent)."
The money quote:
"Kansas City set an NFL record by using shotgun on 63 percent of offensive plays. Three teams used shotgun at least half the time last year: the Chiefs, the team whose offensive coordinator now coaches the Chiefs (Arizona,50 percent), and the team whose quarterback was traded to the Chiefs (New England, 55 percent)."
Fantasy Football: If You Like Him/Sleeper TE
Exhibitionist: Jermichael Finley is a rather confident fellow - Roto Arcade - FANTASY - Yahoo! Sports:
"Assuming the Texas product prevails over Lee and keeps his verbal epithets contained, he has favorable odds of becoming a borderline TE1 in 12-team and deeper leagues."
Then you musn't like Donald Driver to catch as many passes and/or RBs to be a small part of passing game.
"Assuming the Texas product prevails over Lee and keeps his verbal epithets contained, he has favorable odds of becoming a borderline TE1 in 12-team and deeper leagues."
Then you musn't like Donald Driver to catch as many passes and/or RBs to be a small part of passing game.
Fantasy Football: QB Ranks and Overall Draft Position
Whenever one listens to various fantasy football experts talk about players, one always hears this guy is a RB2 or a 3rd wide receiver or a QB2. The problem is there isn't any sort of way to see these players grouped together. Rotisserie Musings steps into this gap and provides RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, QB, TE, FLEX and Bench designations for your improved fantasy football preparation and knowledge.
Now the QBs with the overall draft spot. This information provides some intelligence on how long you can wait and still expect to fill the particular position.
Fantasy Football Sleepers 1
Flex Ranks
WR2 Results
WR1 Results
RB1 Results
RB2 Results
12-team PPR draft results
Now the QBs with the overall draft spot. This information provides some intelligence on how long you can wait and still expect to fill the particular position.
| OA | Player | Roster |
| 20 | Drew Brees | QB |
| 21 | Tom Brady | QB |
| 32 | Peyton Manning | QB |
| 35 | Aaron Rodgers | QB |
| 36 | Kurt Warner | QB |
| 43 | Philip Rivers | QB |
| 55 | Donovan McNabb | QB |
| 63 | Jay Cutler | QB |
| 64 | Tony Romo | QB |
| 73 | Matt Schaub | QB |
| 74 | Matt Ryan | QB |
| 94 | Matt Cassell | QB |
Fantasy Football Sleepers 1
Flex Ranks
WR2 Results
WR1 Results
RB1 Results
RB2 Results
12-team PPR draft results
Fantasy Football Index Draft Mistakes
Fantasy Football Index:
"The truth is, it doesn't matter how many years you've been doing this. You're still going to have regrets, from the moment you draft someone, to the next day and on into the season. I'll admit that I've already made some mistakes this year. And here they are."
"The truth is, it doesn't matter how many years you've been doing this. You're still going to have regrets, from the moment you draft someone, to the next day and on into the season. I'll admit that I've already made some mistakes this year. And here they are."
Fantasy Baseball: 2010 Sleeper?
There is little doubt OF Lastings Milledge was one of the most disappointing players of the 2009 fantasy baseball season. He entered as the recently-installed lead-off hitter with the expectation of a 20/30 season. Then he was quickly demoted, got hurt and then traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Lost may have been an unnoticed "resurgence" since his recall on July 31st. Milledge has gone 27-95. Be wary though. He has been caught stealing in four of his seven attempts and has just seven XBHs to go with a 4:18 K:BB.
Lost may have been an unnoticed "resurgence" since his recall on July 31st. Milledge has gone 27-95. Be wary though. He has been caught stealing in four of his seven attempts and has just seven XBHs to go with a 4:18 K:BB.
Fantasy Football: Sleepers And Overall Draft Positions
Whenever one listens to various fantasy football experts talk about players, one always hears this guy is a RB2 or a 3rd wide receiver or a QB2. The problem is there isn't any sort of way to see these players grouped together. Rotisserie Musings steps into this gap and provides RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, QB, TE, FLEX and Bench designations for your improved fantasy football preparation and knowledge.
Here are the first bench spots taken with the overall pick used. This is typically where fantasy drafts begin to take their fantasy football sleeper RBs, sleeper WR and then fantasy sleeper QBs and TEs later.
Flex Ranks
WR2 Results
WR1 Results
RB1 Results
RB2 Results
12-team PPR draft results
Here are the first bench spots taken with the overall pick used. This is typically where fantasy drafts begin to take their fantasy football sleeper RBs, sleeper WR and then fantasy sleeper QBs and TEs later.
| OA | Player | Roster |
| 70 | Jonathan Stewart | BN1 |
| 79 | Antonio Bryant | BN1 |
| 80 | Fred Taylor | BN1 |
| 83 | LenDale White | BN1 |
| 85 | Domenick Hixon | BN1 |
| 87 | Ahmad Bradshaw | BN1 |
| 88 | Lee Evans | BN1 |
| 91 | Felix Jones | BN1 |
| 92 | Tim Hightower | BN1 |
| 93 | Rashard Mendenhall | BN1 |
| 95 | Derrick Mason | BN1 |
| 96 | LeSean McCoy | BN1 |
Flex Ranks
WR2 Results
WR1 Results
RB1 Results
RB2 Results
12-team PPR draft results
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Fantasy Baseball: The New Closer In Arizona?
D-Backs finish sweep, but lose Qualls:
"If closer Chad Qualls is out for an extended period of time after injuring his left knee Sunday, who will the Diamondbacks choose to replace him? There are plenty of arms to consider, but the obvious choice is Juan Gutierrez."
The WHIP is a little too high for certainty, but there doesn't appear to be a better first choice as Gutierrez' Ks make him more attractive.
"If closer Chad Qualls is out for an extended period of time after injuring his left knee Sunday, who will the Diamondbacks choose to replace him? There are plenty of arms to consider, but the obvious choice is Juan Gutierrez."
The WHIP is a little too high for certainty, but there doesn't appear to be a better first choice as Gutierrez' Ks make him more attractive.
Fantasy Football: Flex Ranks and Overall Draft Position
Whenever one listens to various fantasy football experts talk about players, one always hears this guy is a RB2 or a 3rd wide receiver or a QB2. The problem is there isn't any sort of way to see these players grouped together. Rotisserie Musings steps into this gap and provides RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, QB, TE, FLEX and Bench designations for your improved fantasy football preparation and knowledge.
Now the Flex starters. This information provides some intelligence on how long you can wait and still expect to fill the particular position.
WR2 Results
WR1 Results
RB1 Results
RB2 Results
12-team PPR draft results
Now the Flex starters. This information provides some intelligence on how long you can wait and still expect to fill the particular position.
| OA | Player | Roster |
| 49 | Braylon Edwards | FLEX |
| 51 | Marshawn Lynch | FLEX |
| 56 | Larry Johnson | FLEX |
| 58 | Jerricho Cotchery | FLEX |
| 62 | Donald Brown | FLEX |
| 66 | Reggie Bush | FLEX |
| 71 | Cedric Benson | FLEX |
| 76 | Santana Moss | FLEX |
| 77 | DeSean Jackson | FLEX |
| 78 | Jamaal Lewis | FLEX |
| 81 | Julius Jones | FLEX |
| 84 | Ted Ginn Jr | FLEX |
WR2 Results
WR1 Results
RB1 Results
RB2 Results
12-team PPR draft results
Fantasy Football: Preseason Changes His Value
Tampa Bay Bucanneers WR Antonio Bryant was emerging as a 3rd/4th round WR until he hurt his knee and missed all of the pre-season. In the mean time, the Bucanneers have decided to rotate three RBs (Derrick Ward, Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams) in a 2-2-1 series rotation, and the QB situation looks desparate for a heavy dose of rushing.
As a result, I'm dropping Bryant into the 6th round value.
As a result, I'm dropping Bryant into the 6th round value.
Fantasy Football: WR2 Ranks And Overall Draft Position
Whenever one listens to various fantasy football experts talk about players, one always hears this guy is a RB2 or a 3rd wide receiver or a QB2. The problem is there isn't any sort of way to see these players grouped together. Rotisserie Musings steps into this gap and provides RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, QB, TE, FLEX and Bench designations for your improved fantasy football preparation and knowledge.
Now the WR2s with the overall draft spot. This information provides some intelligence on how long you can wait and still expect to fill the particular position.
WR1 Results
RB1 Results
RB2 Results
12-team PPR draft results
Now the WR2s with the overall draft spot. This information provides some intelligence on how long you can wait and still expect to fill the particular position.
| OA | Player | Roster |
| 34 | Dwayne Bowe | WR2 |
| 37 | Terrell Owens | WR2 |
| 42 | Brandon Marshall | WR2 |
| 44 | Roy Williams | WR2 |
| 46 | Bernard Berrian | WR2 |
| 48 | Vincent Jackson | WR2 |
| 50 | Anthony Gonzalez | WR2 |
| 52 | Eddie Royal | WR2 |
| 54 | Devin Hester | WR2 |
| 57 | Hines Ward | WR2 |
| 65 | Lance Moore | WR2 |
| 86 | Santonio Holmes | WR2 |
WR1 Results
RB1 Results
RB2 Results
12-team PPR draft results
Disco Hayes
Disco Hayes defies the odds in Royals’ system - Kansas City Star:
"...he knows there are people who conclude that he has hit his ceiling, that Disco Time was fun while it lasted, but a pitcher can’t get batters out throwing in the 70s."
"...he knows there are people who conclude that he has hit his ceiling, that Disco Time was fun while it lasted, but a pitcher can’t get batters out throwing in the 70s."
Fantasy Football: WR1 Ranks And Overall Draft Position
Whenever one listens to various fantasy football experts talk about players, one always hears this guy is a RB2 or a 3rd wide receiver or a QB2. The problem is there isn't any sort of way to see these players grouped together. Rotisserie Musings steps into this gap and provides RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, QB, TE, FLEX and Bench designations for your improved fantasy football preparation and knowledge.
Now the WR1s with the overall draft spot. This information provides some intelligence on how long you can wait and still expect to fill the particular position.
RB1 Results
RB2 Results
12-team PPR draft results
Now the WR1s with the overall draft spot. This information provides some intelligence on how long you can wait and still expect to fill the particular position.
| OA | Player | Roster |
| 6 | Larry Fitzgerald | WR1 |
| 7 | Calvin Johnson | WR1 |
| 9 | Randy Moss | WR1 |
| 10 | Andre Johnson | WR1 |
| 13 | Steve Smith | WR1 |
| 14 | Reggie Wayne | WR1 |
| 17 | Greg Jennings | WR1 |
| 22 | Roddy White | WR1 |
| 23 | Anquan Boldin | WR1 |
| 24 | Marquis Colston | WR1 |
| 28 | TJ Houshmandzadeh | WR1 |
| 29 | Wes Welker | WR1 |
RB1 Results
RB2 Results
12-team PPR draft results
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Fantasy Football If You Believe
The 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac claims the Seattle Seahawks will likely return to the play offs this season. If so, you must love Matt Hasselbeck, TJ Houshmandezadeh and John Carlson.
Fantasy Football: If You Still Like
Denver Broncos QB Kyle Orton, then you must love Eddie Royal as a sleeper #1 WR.
Fantasy Football: RB2 Ranks And Overall Draft Position
Whenever one listens to various fantasy football experts talk about players, one always hears this guy is a RB2 or a 3rd wide receiver or a QB2. The problem is there isn't any sort of way to see these players grouped together. Rotisserie Musings steps into this gap and provides RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, QB, TE, FLEX and Bench designations for your improved fantasy football preparation and knowledge.
Next up the RB2s with the overall draft spot. This information provides some intelligence on how long you can wait and still expect to fill the particular position. In this case, all twleve teams had filled their two RB spots by the end of the 5th round.
RB1 Results
12-team PPR draft results
Next up the RB2s with the overall draft spot. This information provides some intelligence on how long you can wait and still expect to fill the particular position. In this case, all twleve teams had filled their two RB spots by the end of the 5th round.
| OA | Player | Roster |
| 25 | Brandon Jacobs | RB2 |
| 26 | Clinton Portis | RB2 |
| 27 | Kevin Smith | RB2 |
| 30 | Ryan Grant | RB2 |
| 31 | Brian Westbrook | RB2 |
| 33 | Darren McFadden | RB2 |
| 39 | Ronnie Brown | RB2 |
| 41 | Thomas Jones | RB2 |
| 45 | Knowshon Moreno | RB2 |
| 53 | Joseph Addai | RB2 |
| 59 | Ray Rice | RB2 |
| 60 | Beanie Wells | RB2 |
RB1 Results
12-team PPR draft results
Fantasy Sports: Dropping ESPN Insider
Fair or unfair, I have discontinued my ESPN Insider subscription. At $39.99, it does not offer much value given the proliferation of free analysis on the internet.
Do I believe it unfair that informational content is essentially free? Yes, but I also think it is Motown-esque exploitive for any business to use the free content of bloggers to make money off their product too or for ESPN to use that free content and not credit it.
Now I have current paid subscriptions to Baseball Prospectus and Mock Draft Central and expect one of them to lapse.
Do I believe it unfair that informational content is essentially free? Yes, but I also think it is Motown-esque exploitive for any business to use the free content of bloggers to make money off their product too or for ESPN to use that free content and not credit it.
Now I have current paid subscriptions to Baseball Prospectus and Mock Draft Central and expect one of them to lapse.
Fantasy Football: RB1 Ranks And Overall Draft Position
Whenever one listens to various fantasy football experts talk about players, one always hears this guy is a RB2 or a 3rd wide receiver or a QB2. The problem is there isn't any sort of way to see these players grouped together. Rotisserie Musings steps into this gap and provides RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, QB, TE, FLEX and Bench designations for your improved fantasy football preparation and knowledge.
First up the RB1s with the overall draft spot. This information provides some intelligence on how long you can wait and still expect to fill the particular position.
12-team PPR draft results
First up the RB1s with the overall draft spot. This information provides some intelligence on how long you can wait and still expect to fill the particular position.
| OA | Player | Roster |
| 1 | Adrian Peterson | RB1 |
| 2 | Matt Forte | RB1 |
| 3 | Maurice Jones-Drew | RB1 |
| 4 | Steve Slaton | RB1 |
| 5 | Chris Johnson | RB1 |
| 8 | LaDanian Tomlinson | RB1 |
| 11 | DeAngelo Williams | RB1 |
| 12 | Steve Jackson | RB1 |
| 15 | Michael Turner | RB1 |
| 16 | Frank Gore | RB1 |
| 18 | Pierre Thomas | RB1 |
| 19 | Marion Barber | RB1 |
12-team PPR draft results
Friday, August 28, 2009
Fantasy Baseball: Deep Leagues With Minor Leaguers
Baseball Prospectus:
"Will Myers, C, Royals (Rookie-level Chukars)
Thursday's stats: 2-for-3, 3B, HR (1), 4 RBI, 2 BB, K
Few teams have been more aggressive in the draft over the last two years than the Royals, so it was no surprise to see the organization take Myers in the third-round and finally sign him to a $2 million bonus. A pure athlete at 6-foot-3 and 190 pounds, Myers has a downright pretty swing and solid raw power, but as good as the offense is, there are still plenty of questions about his ability to stay behind the plate."
I'm getting a Joe Mauer tingle.
"Will Myers, C, Royals (Rookie-level Chukars)
Thursday's stats: 2-for-3, 3B, HR (1), 4 RBI, 2 BB, K
Few teams have been more aggressive in the draft over the last two years than the Royals, so it was no surprise to see the organization take Myers in the third-round and finally sign him to a $2 million bonus. A pure athlete at 6-foot-3 and 190 pounds, Myers has a downright pretty swing and solid raw power, but as good as the offense is, there are still plenty of questions about his ability to stay behind the plate."
I'm getting a Joe Mauer tingle.
Fantasy Baseball: Back Up Closers In Arizona And Milwaukee
Recent news has the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers placing their closers on waivers. Pre-emptively, I added Jon Rauch in Arizona and Todd Coffey in Milwaukee in the event either Chad Qualls or Trevor Hoffman actually is traded.
Fantasy Football How Far Does He Fall
Denver suspended Brandon Marshall. Can't see taking him before 5th round.
Fantasy Baseball: Keith Law On Julio Borbon Or Austin Jackson
Chat: Chat with Keith Law - SportsNation - ESPN:
"John (Dallas): Texas Rangers OF Julio Borbon or New York Yankees OF Austin Jackson?
Keith Law (5:14 PM) Borbon."
Wow. Coming into the season, this would be heresy. Now that Borbon has had success where it counts, not so much.
"John (Dallas): Texas Rangers OF Julio Borbon or New York Yankees OF Austin Jackson?
Keith Law (5:14 PM) Borbon."
Wow. Coming into the season, this would be heresy. Now that Borbon has had success where it counts, not so much.
Fantasy Football: If You Like....
Chicago Bears' QB Jay Cutler, then you must like WR Devin Hester. How can Cutler be productive (3,500+ yards passing) without productive receivers (900+ yards)?
Fantasy Football: Top 24 Rankings
Here is my top 24 players as determined by the draft I conducted. Below these is a link to the twelve teams rosters.
In the ten days that have occurred since complining them, recent news has shifted a couple of players of note. 1st, New Orleans Saints' RB Pierre Thomas will be out for the remainder of the pre-season. As such, I may have dropped him out of the 2nd round.
Link to drafted teams
In the ten days that have occurred since complining them, recent news has shifted a couple of players of note. 1st, New Orleans Saints' RB Pierre Thomas will be out for the remainder of the pre-season. As such, I may have dropped him out of the 2nd round.
| OA | Player | Roster |
| 1 | Adrian Peterson | RB1 |
| 2 | Matt Forte | RB1 |
| 3 | Maurice Jones-Drew | RB1 |
| 4 | Steve Slaton | RB1 |
| 5 | Chris Johnson | RB1 |
| 6 | Larry Fitzgerald | WR1 |
| 7 | Calvin Johnson | WR1 |
| 8 | LaDanian Tomlinson | RB1 |
| 9 | Randy Moss | WR1 |
| 10 | Andre Johnson | WR1 |
| 11 | DeAngelo Williams | RB1 |
| 12 | Steve Jackson | RB1 |
| 13 | Steve Smith | WR1 |
| 14 | Reggie Wayne | WR1 |
| 15 | Michael Turner | RB1 |
| 16 | Frank Gore | RB1 |
| 17 | Greg Jennings | WR1 |
| 18 | Pierre Thomas | RB1 |
| 19 | Marion Barber | RB1 |
| 20 | Drew Brees | QB |
| 21 | Tom Brady | QB |
| 22 | Roddy White | WR1 |
| 23 | Anquan Boldin | WR1 |
| 24 | Marquis Colston | WR1 |
Link to drafted teams
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Fantasy Football: Drafting 1st Overall
The unique Rotisserie Musings 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings continue with a look at the team drafted with the 1st pick. I conducted a 12-team PPR draft in which I selected for each team. This has the effect of showing where particular players actually go in drafts and demonstrates a commitment to selecting kickers and defense/special teams at the end. As a matter of fact, I didn't bother selecting any.
2nd pick
3rd pick
4th pick
5th pick
7th pick
8th pick
9th pick
10th pick
11th pick
12th pick
| Position | Player |
| QB | Matt Schaub |
| RB1 | Adrian Peterson |
| RB2 | Brandon Jacobs |
| WR1 | Marquis Colston |
| WR2 | Vincent Jackson |
| TE | Chris Cooley |
| FLEX | Braylon Edwards |
| BN1 | LeSean McCoy |
| BN2 | Percy Harvin |
| BN3 | Jack Delhomme |
| BN4 | Chester Taylor |
2nd pick
3rd pick
4th pick
5th pick
7th pick
8th pick
9th pick
10th pick
11th pick
12th pick
2009 Football Outsiders Almanac: New Orleans Saints
A couple days ago, I purchased the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac on pdf and sent a copy to my Kindle. As a result I can read the text on the go without lugging around the tome or just read on my laptop.
Here is how Mike Tanier descirbed the play-calling of the New orlean Saints head coach:
"Sean Payton baffled opponents, calling stack formations, middle screens, and play-action seamers like Urban Meyer on a Starbucks binge."
Here is how Mike Tanier descirbed the play-calling of the New orlean Saints head coach:
"Sean Payton baffled opponents, calling stack formations, middle screens, and play-action seamers like Urban Meyer on a Starbucks binge."
Fantasy Football: Which Position Is Safest In 1st Round
On the Rotowire Fantasy Sports Hour, the question of whether to draft a RB, WR or QB in the 1st round was examined. Around the 30 minute makr of this podcast, the discussion of WR being the safest is examined.
This discussion is based around work that Peter Schoenke did for Rotowire Fantasy Football Guide 2009. In it, no WRs busted, 14% of RBs and 26% of QBs did. This analysis didn't apply for RBs in the Top 4 picks though.
So do you take Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson and Randy Moss #s 5, 6, 7, and 8?
This discussion is based around work that Peter Schoenke did for Rotowire Fantasy Football Guide 2009. In it, no WRs busted, 14% of RBs and 26% of QBs did. This analysis didn't apply for RBs in the Top 4 picks though.
So do you take Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson and Randy Moss #s 5, 6, 7, and 8?
Fantasy Football: A 4th RB Sleeper?
As far as Jamal Lewis and the Cleveland Browns are concerned, 30 is the new 20 - cleveland.com:
"...rookie James Davis, Lewis' understudy, has been one of the surprises of camp. Davis' young and eager legs have magnified Lewis' age. Lewis looks slow and tentative as he hits a hole, goes the refrain."
Perception is one thing. As pointed out in the article, head coach Eric Mangini had no problem feeding the 30+ year old Thomas Jones last season with the Jets.
Viewing my own rankings, I'd move Davis into the 3rd or 4th Bench spot to draft.
"...rookie James Davis, Lewis' understudy, has been one of the surprises of camp. Davis' young and eager legs have magnified Lewis' age. Lewis looks slow and tentative as he hits a hole, goes the refrain."
Perception is one thing. As pointed out in the article, head coach Eric Mangini had no problem feeding the 30+ year old Thomas Jones last season with the Jets.
Viewing my own rankings, I'd move Davis into the 3rd or 4th Bench spot to draft.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Fantasy Baseball : Buster Olney on Billy Wagner
Buster Olney Blog -- MLB -- Billy Wagner's pennant race and clouded future - ESPN:
"The bet here: Wagner will return to Boston for 2010, and the Red Sox will trade Jonathan Papelbon."
Wow. Buster Olney is out on a limb.
"The bet here: Wagner will return to Boston for 2010, and the Red Sox will trade Jonathan Papelbon."
Wow. Buster Olney is out on a limb.
Fantasy Football: Drafting From The 2nd Spot
The unique Rotisserie Musings 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings continue with a look at the team drafted with the 2nd pick. I conducted a 12-team PPR draft in which I selected for each team. This has the effect of showing where particular players actually go in drafts and demonstrates a commitment to selecting kickers and defense/special teams at the end. As a matter of fact, I didn't bother selecting any.
3rd pick
4th pick
5th pick
7th pick
8th pick
9th pick
10th pick
11th pick
12th pick
| Position | Player |
| QB | Matt Ryan |
| RB1 | Matt Forte |
| RB2 | Clinton Portis |
| WR1 | Anquan Boldin |
| WR2 | Anthony Gonzalez |
| TE | Dallas Clark |
| FLEX | Cedric Benson |
| BN1 | Derrick Mason |
| BN2 | Chad OchoCinco |
| BN3 | Jamaal Charles |
| BN4 | Kyle Orton |
3rd pick
4th pick
5th pick
7th pick
8th pick
9th pick
10th pick
11th pick
12th pick
Fantasy Baseball: Who Would You Rather Have?
In Al-Only keeper leagues, the certainty of a $20 Jake Peavy, who can't be kept beyond 2010 but must be protected, or the chance of a single-digits closer in Billy Wagner, who can be kept through 2011 if he signs with an AL team but need not be protected if he signs with the NL in the off-season?
$260 draft salary.
$260 draft salary.
Fantasy Football Draft: Picking From The 3rd Spot
The unique Rotisserie Musings 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings continue with a look at the team drafted with the 11th pick. I conducted a 12-team PPR draft in which I selected for each team. This has the effect of showing where particular players actually go in drafts and demonstrates a commitment to selecting kickers and defense/special teams at the end. As a matter of fact, I didn't bother selecting any.
4th pick
5th pick
7th pick
8th pick
9th pick
10th pick
11th pick
12th pick
| Position | Player |
| QB | Matt Cassell |
| RB1 | Maurice Jones-Drew |
| RB2 | Kevin Smith |
| WR1 | Roddy White |
| WR2 | Bernard Berrian |
| TE | Zach Miller |
| FLEX | Marshawn Lynch |
| BN1 | Jonathan Stewart |
| BN2 | Fred Jackson |
| BN3 | Ben Roethlisberger |
| BN4 | Brandon Pettigrew |
4th pick
5th pick
7th pick
8th pick
9th pick
10th pick
11th pick
12th pick
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Fantasy Football: 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac
Because I couldn't find the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac in the stores and didn't want to order via Amazon.com and wait several more days, I purchased it via their website as a pdf and sent a copy to my Kindle. Over the next two weeks, I will provide interesting tidbits of information about the 2009 alamanac and how it translated to the Kindle.
If you have questions, ask, and I will try to answer.
If you have questions, ask, and I will try to answer.
Fantasy Football: Drafting From The 4th Spot
The unique Rotisserie Musings 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings continue with a look at the team drafted with the 4th pick. I conducted a 12-team PPR draft in which I selected for each team. This has the effect of showing where particular players actually go in drafts and demonstrates a commitment to selecting kickers and defense/special teams at the end. As a matter of fact, I didn't bother selecting any.
5th pick
7th pick
8th pick
9th pick
10th pick
11th pick
12th pick
| Position | Player |
| QB | Tom Brady |
| RB1 | Steve Slaton |
| RB2 | Knowshon Moreno |
| WR1 | TJ Houshmandzadeh |
| WR2 | Eddie Royal |
| TE | Owen Daniels |
| FLEX | Santana Moss |
| BN1 | Rashard Mendenhall |
| BN2 | Chris Henry |
| BN4 | Kevin Walter |
5th pick
7th pick
8th pick
9th pick
10th pick
11th pick
12th pick
Fantasy Baseball: Johan Santana Update Via Will Carroll
Baseball Prospectus | Under The Knife: Don't Panic:
"Santana is headed back to New York for an MRI and a visit with David Altchek. It's his elbow that's going to be checked out, and the worry about velocity indicates that he's not able to get full extension due to pain. He's had no control issues, so the easy guess is that he's had a recurrence of bone spurs. We don't know this yet, and we won't until the MRI's results become known, but the panic gripping Mets fans is based on less. Santana is likely to be shut down and could be done for the season based on the findings"
"Santana is headed back to New York for an MRI and a visit with David Altchek. It's his elbow that's going to be checked out, and the worry about velocity indicates that he's not able to get full extension due to pain. He's had no control issues, so the easy guess is that he's had a recurrence of bone spurs. We don't know this yet, and we won't until the MRI's results become known, but the panic gripping Mets fans is based on less. Santana is likely to be shut down and could be done for the season based on the findings"
Fantasy Football: Why DeAngelo Williams' Value Doesn't Change
Pre-season news has Carolina Panthers' 2nd year RB Jonathan Stewart continuing to struggle with injuries. If Stewart were to be out as a legitmate RB in 2010, how high would you move DeAngelo Williams?
Right now, I don't rank Williams much higher than the end of the 1st round in a PPR format. He caught just 22 passes last season, and repeating last season's TD explosion seems unlikely to be repeated. (More on that later this month).
Without Stewart, I'm not sure how many more touches per game Williams would receive. After all he had 274 carries last season and that figure ranked 9th in the NFL.
Second, Williams would be the sole focus of defenses who had all off-season to scheme against him. That is absolutely key to understanding the difficulty of any NFL player repeating outstanding seasons.
Third, Stewart only caught 8 passes. Williams won't grab any extra touches there.
Finally, Williams will not be as fresh without Stewart providing a breather.
So am I wrong to conclude DeAngelo Williams will not be much better in 2009 without Jonathan Stewart there to share the load?
Right now, I don't rank Williams much higher than the end of the 1st round in a PPR format. He caught just 22 passes last season, and repeating last season's TD explosion seems unlikely to be repeated. (More on that later this month).
Without Stewart, I'm not sure how many more touches per game Williams would receive. After all he had 274 carries last season and that figure ranked 9th in the NFL.
Second, Williams would be the sole focus of defenses who had all off-season to scheme against him. That is absolutely key to understanding the difficulty of any NFL player repeating outstanding seasons.
Third, Stewart only caught 8 passes. Williams won't grab any extra touches there.
Finally, Williams will not be as fresh without Stewart providing a breather.
So am I wrong to conclude DeAngelo Williams will not be much better in 2009 without Jonathan Stewart there to share the load?
Fantasy Football: Drafting From The 5th Spot
The unique Rotisserie Musings 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings continue with a look at the team drafted with the 5th pick. I conducted a 12-team PPR draft in which I selected for each team. This has the effect of showing where particular players actually go in drafts and demonstrates a commitment to selecting kickers and defense/special teams at the end. As a matter of fact, I didn't bother selecting any.
6th pick
7th pick
8th pick
9th pick
10th pick
11th pick
12th pick
| Position | Player |
| QB | Drew Brees |
| RB1 | Chris Johnson |
| RB2 | Joseph Addai |
| WR1 | Wes Welker |
| WR2 | Roy Williams |
| TE | Greg Olson |
| FLEX | DeSean Jackson |
| BN1 | Tim Hightower |
| BN2 | Darren Sproles |
| BN3 | Torry Holt |
| BN4 | Ricky Williams |
6th pick
7th pick
8th pick
9th pick
10th pick
11th pick
12th pick
Monday, August 24, 2009
Fantasy Football: Drafting From The 6th Spot
The unique Rotisserie Musings 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings continue with a look at the team drafted with the 6th pick. I conducted a 12-team PPR draft in which I selected for each team. This has the effect of showing where particular players actually go in drafts and demonstrates a commitment to selecting kickers and defense/special teams at the end. As a matter of fact, I didn't bother selecting any.
7th pick
8th pick
9th pick
10th pick
11th pick
12th pick
| Position | Player |
| QB | Philip Rivers |
| RB1 | Marion Barber |
| RB2 | Ryan Grant |
| WR1 | Larry Fitzgerald |
| WR2 | Devin Hester |
| TE | Kellen Winslow |
| FLEX | Jamaal Lewis |
| BN1 | Felix Jones |
| BN2 | Donnie Avery |
| BN3 | Eli Manning |
7th pick
8th pick
9th pick
10th pick
11th pick
12th pick
Fantasy Baseball: Why I Love Him in 2010
Billy Wagner to Boston Red Sox: Nix option to seal deal - ESPN:
"Billy Wagner wants to be a closer next season, regardless of the team. That's why the New York Mets reliever says Boston must guarantee it will decline his contract option for 2010 before he would approve a potential trade to the Red Sox, who already have an All-Star closer in Jonathan Papelbon."
The team who had him in my NL-only was in the hospital for the birth of his 1st child at the trade deadline. In my AL-Only, I am willing to spend to get the chance at a 2010 closer on the cheap.
"Billy Wagner wants to be a closer next season, regardless of the team. That's why the New York Mets reliever says Boston must guarantee it will decline his contract option for 2010 before he would approve a potential trade to the Red Sox, who already have an All-Star closer in Jonathan Papelbon."
The team who had him in my NL-only was in the hospital for the birth of his 1st child at the trade deadline. In my AL-Only, I am willing to spend to get the chance at a 2010 closer on the cheap.
Fantasy Football: Mock Draft Central ADP Movers
From Mock Draft Central's free email newsletter:
"A few more players seeing a significant increase in value include Oakland Raiders RB Darren McFadden, Philadelphia Eagles RB LeSean McCoy, San Francisco 49ers WR Josh Morgan, Cincinnati Bengals WR Chris Henry and Miami Dolphins WR Davonne Bess.
Among those dropping this week: a pair of Denver Broncos, RB Knowshon Moreno and QB Kyle Orton, Carolina Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart and St. Louis Rams QB Marc Bulger."
"A few more players seeing a significant increase in value include Oakland Raiders RB Darren McFadden, Philadelphia Eagles RB LeSean McCoy, San Francisco 49ers WR Josh Morgan, Cincinnati Bengals WR Chris Henry and Miami Dolphins WR Davonne Bess.
Among those dropping this week: a pair of Denver Broncos, RB Knowshon Moreno and QB Kyle Orton, Carolina Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart and St. Louis Rams QB Marc Bulger."
Fantasy Football: Drafting From The 7th Spot
The unique Rotisserie Musings 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings continue with a look at the team drafted with the 7th pick. I conducted a 12-team PPR draft in which I selected for each team. This has the effect of showing where particular players actually go in drafts and demonstrates a commitment to selecting kickers and defense/special teams at the end. As a matter of fact, I didn't bother selecting any.
8th pick
9th pick
10th pick
11th pick
12th pick
| Position | Player |
| QB | Donovan McNabb |
| RB1 | Pierre Thomas |
| RB2 | Brian Westbrook |
| WR1 | Calvin Johnson |
| WR2 | Brandon Marshall |
| TE | Brett Celek |
| FLEX | Reggie Bush |
| BN1 | Antonio Bryant |
| BN2 | Willie Parker |
| BN3 | Carson Palmer |
8th pick
9th pick
10th pick
11th pick
12th pick
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Fantasy Football: San Francisco 49ers WR
RotoSynthesis : NFL Training Camp Notes:
"The decline of Isaac Bruce, the whole holdout situation with Michael Crabtree, and Morgan's 16.0 YPC average last season all make Morgan an 'intriguing sleeper option' to fantasy owners, and understandably so. But will he actually live up to the hype? I highly doubt it. What I expect to happen is for Shaun Hill to spread the ball out fairly evenly between four or five guys, including Bruce, Morgan, Crabtree, Vernon Davis, and Arnaz Battle. If Hill is going to have a go-to guy who he develops chemistry with, it'll be Vernon Davis, not Morgan. I just don't see anyone in that group finishing with more than 750 receiving yards and five touchdowns."
Exactly what I currently think about the San Francisco 49ers' WR situation. As for the QB, the opening given to Alex Smith only muddies the receiving situation further. There is no reason to believe that Hill's favorite target would be Smith's favorite target.
"The decline of Isaac Bruce, the whole holdout situation with Michael Crabtree, and Morgan's 16.0 YPC average last season all make Morgan an 'intriguing sleeper option' to fantasy owners, and understandably so. But will he actually live up to the hype? I highly doubt it. What I expect to happen is for Shaun Hill to spread the ball out fairly evenly between four or five guys, including Bruce, Morgan, Crabtree, Vernon Davis, and Arnaz Battle. If Hill is going to have a go-to guy who he develops chemistry with, it'll be Vernon Davis, not Morgan. I just don't see anyone in that group finishing with more than 750 receiving yards and five touchdowns."
Exactly what I currently think about the San Francisco 49ers' WR situation. As for the QB, the opening given to Alex Smith only muddies the receiving situation further. There is no reason to believe that Hill's favorite target would be Smith's favorite target.
Fantasy Football: Drafting From The 8th Spot
The unique Rotisserie Musings 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings continue with a look at the team drafted with the 8th pick. I conducted a 12-team PPR draft in which I selected for each team. This has the effect of showing where particular players actually go in drafts and demonstrates a commitment to selecting kickers and defense/special teams at the end. As a matter of fact, I didn't bother selecting any.
9th pick
10th pick
11th pick
12th pick
| Position | Player |
| QB | Peyton Manning |
| RB1 | LaDanian Tomlinson |
| RB2 | Thomas Jones |
| WR1 | Greg Jennings |
| WR2 | Lance Moore |
| TE | Jeremy Shockey |
| FLEX | Larry Johnson |
| BN1 | Fred Taylor |
| BN2 | Donald Driver |
| BN3 | Matt Hasselback |
9th pick
10th pick
11th pick
12th pick
Fantasy Football: Do You Dare?
Fantasy Football, Baseball and Basketball - news, projections, rankings, draft guide - Rotoworld.com:
"Troy Williamson caught three passes for 147 yards and a touchdown against the Bucs in the Jaguars' second preseason game."
I can see grabbing him as a flyer. I am not ready to take him until my expected starting roster is complete, and I've drafted a couple more bench guys.
You?
"Troy Williamson caught three passes for 147 yards and a touchdown against the Bucs in the Jaguars' second preseason game."
I can see grabbing him as a flyer. I am not ready to take him until my expected starting roster is complete, and I've drafted a couple more bench guys.
You?
Fantasy Football: Drafting From The 9th Spot
The unique Rotisserie Musings 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings continue with a look at the team drafted with the 9th pick. I conducted a 12-team PPR draft in which I selected for each team. This has the effect of showing where particular players actually go in drafts and demonstrates a commitment to selecting kickers and defense/special teams at the end. As a matter of fact, I didn't bother selecting any.
10th pick
11th pick
12th pick
| Position | Player |
| QB | Tony Romo |
| RB1 | Frank Gore |
| RB2 | Darren McFadden |
| WR1 | Randy Moss |
| WR2 | Hines Ward |
| TE | Antonio Gates |
| FLEX | Julius Jones |
| BN1 | Lee Evans |
| BN2 | Shonn Greene |
| BN3 | Darius Heywood-Bey |
10th pick
11th pick
12th pick
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Fantasy Football: Drafting from the 10th spot
The unique Rotisserie Musings 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings continue with a look at the team drafted with the 10th pick. I conducted a 12-team PPR draft in which I selected for each team. This has the effect of showing where particular players actually go in drafts and demonstrates a commitment to selecting kickers and defense/special teams at the end. As a matter of fact, I didn't bother selecting any.
11th pick results
12th pick results
| Position | Player |
| QB | Jay Cutler |
| RB1 | Michael Turner |
| RB2 | Ronnie Brown |
| WR1 | Andre Johnson |
| WR2 | Dwayne Bowe |
| TE | Tony Gonzalez |
| FLEX | Jerricho Cotchery |
| BN1 | Ahmad Bradshaw |
| BN2 | Brett Favre |
| BN3 | Justin Fargas |
11th pick results
12th pick results
Fantasy Football: Draft Deja vu
Denver Broncos WR Eddie Royal 2009 and New York Jets WR Jerricho Cotchery 2008
Fantasy Football: Drafting From The 11th Spot
The unique Rotisserie Musings 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings continue with a look at the team drafted with the 11th pick. I conducted a 12-team PPR draft in which I selected for each team. This has the effect of showing where particular players actually go in drafts and demonstrates a commitment to selecting kickers and defense/special teams at the end. As a matter of fact, I didn't bother selecting any.
The 12th pick roster.
| Position | Player |
| QB | Aaron Rodgers |
| RB1 | DeAngelo Williams |
| RB2 | Ray Rice |
| WR1 | Reggie Wayne |
| WR2 | Santonio Holmes |
| TE | Jason Witten |
| FLEX | Donald Brown |
| BN1 | LenDale White |
| BN2 | Willis McGahee |
| BN3 | Steve Breaston |
The 12th pick roster.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Fantasy Football: Fool's Gold In Washington?
Redskins Insider - Betts Expected to Again Have a Big Role:
"Coach Jim Zorn has expanded Betts's responsibilities, making him the primary running back on third downs. That previously had been Portis's domain -- as well as every other down for the Redskins' offense -- as long as Portis was physically sound enough to play or not on the sideline during a rare break for him."
Betts was a trendy pick two years ago and has been persona non grata. Charlie Brown, do we try to kick the ball again?
"Coach Jim Zorn has expanded Betts's responsibilities, making him the primary running back on third downs. That previously had been Portis's domain -- as well as every other down for the Redskins' offense -- as long as Portis was physically sound enough to play or not on the sideline during a rare break for him."
Betts was a trendy pick two years ago and has been persona non grata. Charlie Brown, do we try to kick the ball again?
Fantasy Football: Drafting From The 12th Pick
I will begin my 2009 fantasy football rankings in a way that is unique to Rotisserie Musings. I conducted a 12-team PPR draft in which I selected for each team. This has the effect of showing where particualr players actually go in drafts and demonstrates a commitment to selecting kickers and defense/special teams at the end. As a matter of fact, I didn't bother selecting any.
Beginning with the team that drew the 12th pick, here are the team results.
Beginning with the team that drew the 12th pick, here are the team results.
| Position | Player |
| QB | Kurt Warner |
| RB1 | Steve Jackson |
| RB2 | Beanie Wells |
| WR1 | Steve Smith |
| WR2 | Terrell Owens |
| TE | Dustin Keller |
| FLEX | Ted Ginn Jr |
| BN1 | Domenick Hixon |
| BN2 | Leon Washington |
| BN3 | Laurence Maroney |
Fantasy Football: 2009's Ben Roethlisberger?
In 2007, Pittsburgh steelers' QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for 32 TDs in fewer than 404 passing attempts. This made him a trendy 2008 QB (ADP 48). In 2008, his TDs dropped to 17 in 469 attempts.
In 2008, San Diego Chargers' QB Philip Rivers threw 34 TDs in 480 attempts. Going into 2009, he is considered a consensus Top 6 QB (ADP 40).
Have I led the horse close enough to the water?
In 2008, San Diego Chargers' QB Philip Rivers threw 34 TDs in 480 attempts. Going into 2009, he is considered a consensus Top 6 QB (ADP 40).
Have I led the horse close enough to the water?
Fantasy Baseball Category Management
With a month and a half left, load up on Saves or SBs to move in those categories. To move up in the ratios, you must dump low AVG/ERA/WHIP players.
Look at counting categories and feel comfortable doing so if you have a 9 HR, 20 RBI, or 6 W lead.
Look at counting categories and feel comfortable doing so if you have a 9 HR, 20 RBI, or 6 W lead.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Fantasy Football: Who Would You Pick
New York Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw or Baltimore Ravens Rb Ray Rice?
Fantasy Football Index: Which QB Battle Has Most Fantasy Upside
Fantasy Football Index:
"I'm going with Detroit, for a few reasons. I think they'll be a bad team defensively, again, so their quarterback, be it Stafford or Culpepper, will have to put up some points offensively. I see that player as more likely to be this year's Matt Ryan, while the winner of the Jets' QB battle is more likely to be in the situation Joe Flacco was in:"
Agree, and it has nothing to do with Andy being a friend.
"I'm going with Detroit, for a few reasons. I think they'll be a bad team defensively, again, so their quarterback, be it Stafford or Culpepper, will have to put up some points offensively. I see that player as more likely to be this year's Matt Ryan, while the winner of the Jets' QB battle is more likely to be in the situation Joe Flacco was in:"
Agree, and it has nothing to do with Andy being a friend.
Fantasy Football: Sure Thing Or High Reward
You have the choice of Ravens' WR Derrick Mason or Dallad Cowboys RB Felix Jones. Who do you take if either would be on your bench for Week One?
Fantasy Football: Who Would You Rather Have
New York Giants WR Domenick Hixon or Miami Dolphins WR Ted Ginn, Jr.?
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Fantasy Baseball: Winning Only Leagues
There are four keys to winning a single league format league.
1. Good Draft
2. Fewer than 3 key injuries
3. At least one key free agent pick-up
4. Failing to make a trade that would have back-fired.
1. Good Draft
2. Fewer than 3 key injuries
3. At least one key free agent pick-up
4. Failing to make a trade that would have back-fired.
Fantasy Football: Mock Draft Central Newsletter 8-18
A deep thoughts from Geoff Stein:
"Some WRs I like better in standard, non-PPR leagues include Chris Henry of the Cincinnati Bengals, Nate Washington of the Tennessee Titans and Patrick Crayton of the Dallas Cowboys.
I fully expect all three of these pass-catchers to flirt with seven or more TDs this upcoming season."
Meh.
"Some WRs I like better in standard, non-PPR leagues include Chris Henry of the Cincinnati Bengals, Nate Washington of the Tennessee Titans and Patrick Crayton of the Dallas Cowboys.
I fully expect all three of these pass-catchers to flirt with seven or more TDs this upcoming season."
Meh.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Fantasy Sports: RotoWire Fantasy Sports Hour Debuts On Blog Talk Radio Wednesday August 19 at Noon ET
RotoSynthesis >> RotoWire Fantasy Sports Hour Debuts On Blog Talk Radio Wednesday August 19 at Noon ET:
"As Erickson posted last week, I'm jumping back into the fray on Wednesday and Thursday mornings at noon ET, and we're calling the show the RotoWire Fantasy Sports Hour to reflect the various sports that we'll discuss.
Jeff will still keep his Monday and Tuesday shows (Tuesdays will be at 1 pm ET), and Thornbury will retain his Friday at noon ET show.
My show's going to be mostly football now, but baseball, hoops and anything else will be fair game. You're encouraged to call in 347-202-0765, and you can listen to the show live or on demand here."
"As Erickson posted last week, I'm jumping back into the fray on Wednesday and Thursday mornings at noon ET, and we're calling the show the RotoWire Fantasy Sports Hour to reflect the various sports that we'll discuss.
Jeff will still keep his Monday and Tuesday shows (Tuesdays will be at 1 pm ET), and Thornbury will retain his Friday at noon ET show.
My show's going to be mostly football now, but baseball, hoops and anything else will be fair game. You're encouraged to call in 347-202-0765, and you can listen to the show live or on demand here."
Fantasy Football: Which Cincinnati Bengal WR To Take 1st?
Between Chad OchoCinco's and Laverneus Coles productive pasts and the hype about Chris Henry, the Cincinnati bengals has three interesting options at WR. Add in the availablity of 150 or so targets no longer going to T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and one has the makings of a fantasy football feeding frenzy.
I'm mocking a PPR draft and haven't selected any through the 1st six and a half rounds. Am I nuts to dislike any of them before the 7th/8th round?
I'm mocking a PPR draft and haven't selected any through the 1st six and a half rounds. Am I nuts to dislike any of them before the 7th/8th round?
Fantasy Football: Brett Favre Signs With Minnesota Vikings
With Favre in purple, expect to see WR Bernard Berrian climb the ADP charts. My guess is 4th round. However, keep in mind that Berrian is not a Donald Driver/Torry Holt type of receiver - high receptions. He is in the mold of Lee Evans - bombs. PPR enthusiasts take note.
Fantasy Baseball: Steven Strasburg Signs
The Washington Nationals signed the #1 pick, Steven Strasburg, to a four-year deal. Yes, a four year deal. That means the Nationals have no reason whatsover to not use Strasburg like a 200+ inning seasoned veteran. After all, he'll be a free agent in the winter prior to the 2014 season.
Unless the Nats can offer him arbitration (contract details not yet known). Then I still expect serious financial considerations to occur because I expect him to try and set the 1st year arbitration record. Currently, that stands at $10 MM.
Unless the Nats can offer him arbitration (contract details not yet known). Then I still expect serious financial considerations to occur because I expect him to try and set the 1st year arbitration record. Currently, that stands at $10 MM.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Fantasy Sports Services
Am I the only person who believes Rotoworld's lack of a mobile version of its site is unconsciousable given its popularity and the high prices of its stats service?
Fantasy Football: Top 10 Black Holes
These 10 positions offer the least offensive value in fantasy football this season. Some would look at this list as a glass half full and see an opportunity for super value.
1. Arizona Cardinals TE
2. Cincinnati Bengals TE
3. Washington Redskins 2nd WR
4. Jacksonville Jaguars 2nd WR
5. Baltimore Ravens 2nd WR
6. Detroit Lions 2nd WR
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB
8. New York Jets 2nd WR
9. Seattle Seahawks RB
10. New York Giants #1 WR
1. Arizona Cardinals TE
2. Cincinnati Bengals TE
3. Washington Redskins 2nd WR
4. Jacksonville Jaguars 2nd WR
5. Baltimore Ravens 2nd WR
6. Detroit Lions 2nd WR
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB
8. New York Jets 2nd WR
9. Seattle Seahawks RB
10. New York Giants #1 WR
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Fantasy Baseball: Innings Limits
Are innings limits for young pitchers as dogmatic as politicians for children? Watching Joba Chamberlain and the discussion about the Yankee efforts to manage his innings makes me think so.
Who isn't for protecting young arms?
Fantasy Football: Am I Crazy To prefer This RB Over Brian Westbrook
Philadelphia Eagles' superstar RB Brian Westbrook is 30 years old and always dinged. Am I nuts to think Oakland Raiders' Rb Darren McFadden will be better in 2009?
Fantasy Baseball: NL-Only Top 5 Players in 2009 - FakeTeams
Fantasy Baseball: NL-Only Top 5 Players in 2009 - FakeTeams
Off the top of my head (5x5):
1. Albert Pujols
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Hanley Ramirez
4. Matt Kemp
5. Ryan Braun
Off the top of my head (5x5):
1. Albert Pujols
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Hanley Ramirez
4. Matt Kemp
5. Ryan Braun
Fantasy Football: 1st Pick In PPR
I'm taking Minnesota Vikings' RB Adrian Peterson rather than reach for a proven pass catcher who has never proven to be a dominating rusher. My question is should I reach for a receving RB at the 2.12/3.1 turn?
Fantasy Baseball: Need For Speed
Texas Rangers rookie CF Julio Borbon stole four bases yesterday. With Nelson Cruz eligible to return from the DL on Wednesday, there may not be many more chances. Keeper leagues should grab him regardless.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Fantasy Football: Sleeper TE
New York Jets' 2nd year TE Dustin Keller looks like the 2nd receiving option that has reaped fantasy rewards the way Tony Gonzalez did in Kansas City, Jason Witten in Dallas and Antonio Gates in San Diego. Amazingly, Keller's ADP is 124.
Just stunning. I expect a Top 5 2009.
Just stunning. I expect a Top 5 2009.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Fantasy Baseball High Scoring Games
Who doesn't see a high scoring game like the Cubs 17-2 demolition today and think, "Please don't let me have a Pirates pitcher?"
Fantasy Football Breakout RB
Pittsburgh Steelers 2nd year back Rashard Mendenhall. Eventually, Fast Willie Parker will been done.
Baseball HQ Friday - Top 5 Players in 2010
Here they are from the week's free Friday email.
"My first player was nearly a no-brainer, Albert Pujols, who is about the most consistent, highest performing player in baseball today. Of course, we must remember that the consensus pre-season #1 pick in each of the past 10 years has NEVER finished first, so I don't want to jinx him."
2. Ryan Braun
3. Matt Kemp
4. Carl Crawford
5. Hanley Ramirez
Holy cow!
"My first player was nearly a no-brainer, Albert Pujols, who is about the most consistent, highest performing player in baseball today. Of course, we must remember that the consensus pre-season #1 pick in each of the past 10 years has NEVER finished first, so I don't want to jinx him."
2. Ryan Braun
3. Matt Kemp
4. Carl Crawford
5. Hanley Ramirez
Holy cow!
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Baseball Prospectus | Under The Knife: Mariano Rivera Injury Update
Baseball Prospectus | Under The Knife: Feeling Famous?:
"Rivera's shoulder is inflamed and a bit sore. Not painful, just sore, which means that Phil Hughes and Phil Coke might see even more usage. The back of the bullpen is being treated like Joe Torre never left...."
"Rivera's shoulder is inflamed and a bit sore. Not painful, just sore, which means that Phil Hughes and Phil Coke might see even more usage. The back of the bullpen is being treated like Joe Torre never left...."
Fantasy Football: What Is Your Favorite Podcast For Football
I regularly listen to ESPN's Football Today and Fantasy Focus, CBS Sportsline's Fantasy Football and Rotowire's Fantasy Sports Hour at Blog Talk Radio. The most serious of the four is CBS Sportsline. The most philosophically aligned is Rotowire, and the most informative for general football info is Football Today.
Fantasy Football: Who To Take With Last Pick, Non-Kicker
Fantasy Football Index:
"Assuming you've taken a kicker, what lightly regarded player would you select in the final round of a draft?"
Typically, my non-kicker/non-DST will be a RB or WR. Which one depends on how many I already drafted. How about rookie RB Glenn Coffey with the San Francisco 49ers?
"Assuming you've taken a kicker, what lightly regarded player would you select in the final round of a draft?"
Typically, my non-kicker/non-DST will be a RB or WR. Which one depends on how many I already drafted. How about rookie RB Glenn Coffey with the San Francisco 49ers?
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Fantasy Baseball Erie Sea Wolves
Brennan Boesch hittin 3rd with 54 XBH. Ryan Strieby guys 4th With 20 less. Why?
.423 OBP vs .302 OBP
FWIW, Boesch has taken a huge leap in production this season. He had 32 XBHs last season. Streiby's jump in OBP is as impressive going from .352 to more than .400 against better competition.
.423 OBP vs .302 OBP
FWIW, Boesch has taken a huge leap in production this season. He had 32 XBHs last season. Streiby's jump in OBP is as impressive going from .352 to more than .400 against better competition.
Fantasy Baseball: The New Oakland A's
The oakland A's have spent a couple of seasons dealing viable major leaguers for prospects without regard for organizational depth charts. The teams has lots of starting pitchers and outfielders and few infielders.
The team that looks like it is going down the same path is the Cleveland Indians who dealt two of their three best players, LHP Cliff Lee and C/1B Victor Martinez, for eight prospects. Does the team really need C Lou Marson with Carlos Santana the heir apparent at the position? Or AAA infielder Jason Donald when Asdrubel Cabrera and Luis Valbuena have SS and 2B covered?
I wonder if Billy Beane and his adherents are missing latest values in baseball - established major leaguers - while other teams are recognizing the most over-valued ones are prospects.
The team that looks like it is going down the same path is the Cleveland Indians who dealt two of their three best players, LHP Cliff Lee and C/1B Victor Martinez, for eight prospects. Does the team really need C Lou Marson with Carlos Santana the heir apparent at the position? Or AAA infielder Jason Donald when Asdrubel Cabrera and Luis Valbuena have SS and 2B covered?
I wonder if Billy Beane and his adherents are missing latest values in baseball - established major leaguers - while other teams are recognizing the most over-valued ones are prospects.
RotoSynthesis >> Could Cedric Benson Be a Top-10 Back?
RotoSynthesis >> Could Cedric Benson Be a Top-10 Back?:
"Normally, I don't put much stake in human interest articles, but this one makes me want to take a flier on Benson in a draft or two. Given where he's been available so far, I think he's a worthwhile gamble."
Any player is valuable if he can be obtained cheaply enough. I see no reason Benson couldn't produce the same way he did last season (60 yards per game). The Cincinnati Bengals should have QB Carson Palmer for the whole season and that will free-up the rushing game.
"Normally, I don't put much stake in human interest articles, but this one makes me want to take a flier on Benson in a draft or two. Given where he's been available so far, I think he's a worthwhile gamble."
Any player is valuable if he can be obtained cheaply enough. I see no reason Benson couldn't produce the same way he did last season (60 yards per game). The Cincinnati Bengals should have QB Carson Palmer for the whole season and that will free-up the rushing game.
Fantasy Football : 1,000 Yards Receiving
The table below is a cautionary tale in letting projected receiving yards and total number of 1,000+ yard receivers get out of hand. Irrational exuberance is only good for investment bankers and brokers selling bubble products.
| Season | # 1000+ Yd Receivers | High |
| 2008 | 22 | 1575 |
| 2007 | 23 | 1510 |
| 2006 | 19 | 1369 |
| 2005 | 20 | 1563 |
| 2004 | 24 | 1405 |
| 2003 | 14 | 1696 |
| 2002 | 22 | 1722 |
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Fantasy Football: Sleeper RB Racing Up ADP Charts
Biggs: Jets may look to trade Jones | National Football Post:
"Bolstered by the addition of rookie Shonn Greene, the New York Jets are gauging trade interest in running back Thomas Jones and have placed a call to an NFC West club, a league source said."
Shonn Greene should be the bigger winner between himself and Leon Washington given his size and Washington's value in non-rushing apsects of the game.
"Bolstered by the addition of rookie Shonn Greene, the New York Jets are gauging trade interest in running back Thomas Jones and have placed a call to an NFC West club, a league source said."
Shonn Greene should be the bigger winner between himself and Leon Washington given his size and Washington's value in non-rushing apsects of the game.
Fantasy Football A PPR Sleeper
Anyone realize Titan RB Chris Johnson caught a nice amount of passes and the Titans receiving corp is no better than the 2008 season? Unless his play off injury sapped some speed.
Bail Trade Blowout
Yesterday's news that Washington Nationals' rookie SP Jordan Zimmermann will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss most, if not all, of 2010 has led to something that has not happened to me in my 14 years of Rotisserie baseball experience. I have had a bail trade turn against me.
In the beginning of July, I dealt and out-of-time Ryan Howard for Zimmermann and Giants' OF Nate Schierholtz.
Has this happened to you?
In the beginning of July, I dealt and out-of-time Ryan Howard for Zimmermann and Giants' OF Nate Schierholtz.
Has this happened to you?
Monday, August 10, 2009
Fantasy Football WR Depth
While the pundits claim WR is a shallow position, don't ever believe there will be a lack of 1,000 yard receivers. This year's Antonio Bryants will emerge.
How about rookie Brian Robiskie?
Fantasy Baseball Who Would You Rather Have
Seattle Mariners OF Franklin Gutierrez or Baltimore Oriole OF Nolan Reimold?
Fantasy Football: Catch Rate As Key To Finding WR Sleepers
Yesterday, I quoted a comment about the Football Outsider Alamanac 2009 that took FO to task for failing to uncover predictive statistical info. This morning, this criticism seems premature.
One of the newer metrics being used in fantasy football analysis is catch rate - the number of receptions a receiver has as a percent of his total targets. What FO has found is the right place to place the blame for low and high catch rates.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Football Outsiders Almanac 2009:
Catch rate has more to do with team- and quarterback-related variables than it does with the 'hands' of a wide receiver.
Acquiring a player because he had a good catch rate or +/- in a particular scheme does not mean that he's likely to perform as well in your scheme.
If a player has a +/- far better or worse than the players around him, though, you should expect some of that ability (or lack thereof) to stick in a new spot.
One of the newer metrics being used in fantasy football analysis is catch rate - the number of receptions a receiver has as a percent of his total targets. What FO has found is the right place to place the blame for low and high catch rates.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Football Outsiders Almanac 2009:
Catch rate has more to do with team- and quarterback-related variables than it does with the 'hands' of a wide receiver.
Acquiring a player because he had a good catch rate or +/- in a particular scheme does not mean that he's likely to perform as well in your scheme.
If a player has a +/- far better or worse than the players around him, though, you should expect some of that ability (or lack thereof) to stick in a new spot.
Sunday, August 09, 2009
He Is No David Clowney
Buffalo Bills WR Terrell Owens looked good enough to be a 4th round pick now. At least on the 1st drive.
Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 Too Harsh?
Amazon.com: Anodyne115's review of Football Outsiders Almanac 2009: The Essen...:
"Unfortunately, their statistical approach has not succeeded in actually producing anything that really helps analyze a game, team, or a particular matchup."
Any thoughts?
"Unfortunately, their statistical approach has not succeeded in actually producing anything that really helps analyze a game, team, or a particular matchup."
Any thoughts?
Baseball Prospectus | On the Beat: Weekend Roundup
Baseball Prospectus | On the Beat: Weekend Roundup:
"The Blue Jays are considering allowing the White Sox to take outfielder Alex Rios and the $59 million left on his contract on a straight waiver claim if they are unable to work out a trade"
"The Blue Jays are considering allowing the White Sox to take outfielder Alex Rios and the $59 million left on his contract on a straight waiver claim if they are unable to work out a trade"
Fantasy Football Worst Every Week Starting QB
Marc Bulger. Who else will play every week despite fantasy irrelevence?
Podcast Highlight: Baseball HQ
Texas Rangers' C Jarrod Saltalamacchia looks really bad according to Baseball HQ's metrics. Sell him as a future piece if somehow you're competing in 2009 and have him.
Fantasy Baseball: Who'd You Rather Have
From Sunday August 9th forward, would you rather have Toronto Blue Jays/Whoever claimed him OF Alex Rios of Los Angeles Angels' OF Torri Hunter?
Saturday, August 08, 2009
Twitter: Jordan Zimmermann
Twitter / Home:
"injuryexpert Hearing bad things about Jordan Zimmermann's elbow after his rehab start. Peavy will get a rehab start next week, prob. Thu."
"injuryexpert Hearing bad things about Jordan Zimmermann's elbow after his rehab start. Peavy will get a rehab start next week, prob. Thu."
Fantasy Football 1st Round QB
In leagues with 6 points per passing TD, I would seriously consider taking New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees in the same spot I would select Randy Moss.
Fantasy Baseball Surprises
St. Louis Cardinals' 2B Mark DeRosa has 21 HRs this season. With 2B, 3B, and OF eligibility for next season, expect DeRosa to be a $20+ player in single league drafts. Amazing.
I traded for Francisco Rodriguez a month or so ago. After his five earned runs/ zero outs effort last night. He has allowed 15 earned runs in 15.1 innings ons my team.
I traded for Francisco Rodriguez a month or so ago. After his five earned runs/ zero outs effort last night. He has allowed 15 earned runs in 15.1 innings ons my team.
Friday, August 07, 2009
Fantasy Baseball 2010 Better Value
AL-Only:
David Ortiz or Pat Burrell. Each is DH only and neither appears capable of being AVG neutral.
David Ortiz or Pat Burrell. Each is DH only and neither appears capable of being AVG neutral.
Fantasy Baseball: High On The Washington Nationals 2010
Baseball Prospectus | Under The Knife: Out Outfielders:
"Jordan Zimmermann looked solid in his rehab start, showing no trouble with the elbow. The Nats will decide soon if he'll need one more."
I am very high on the Nats in 2010 - as long as Jordan Zimmermann is healthy. Crossing my fingers this elbow thingy was a convenient reason to limit his 2009 innings.
"Jordan Zimmermann looked solid in his rehab start, showing no trouble with the elbow. The Nats will decide soon if he'll need one more."
I am very high on the Nats in 2010 - as long as Jordan Zimmermann is healthy. Crossing my fingers this elbow thingy was a convenient reason to limit his 2009 innings.
Fantasy Football: Overrated WR in PPRs
Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson produced 1,331 yards and 12 TDs without the benefit of a mediocre QB and no other receiving threats. This has made him a 1st round pick in most leagues that value WRs.
I admit to loving him this season, but should I be worried about his 78 receptions in a PPR format? Typically, 100 receptions is the gold standard for elite PPR WRs.
I admit to loving him this season, but should I be worried about his 78 receptions in a PPR format? Typically, 100 receptions is the gold standard for elite PPR WRs.
Fantasy Football: Which Consensus 1st Round RB Is Not a 1st Rounder in PPRs
Atlanta Falcons' RB Michael Turner caught six passes last season. With the addition of TE Tony Gonzalez, I don't see Turner getting as many touches when the Falcons' get inside the 20.
Worse, Turner had 376 carries in his 5th professional season. He is not a spring chicken in NFL RB years.
Worse, Turner had 376 carries in his 5th professional season. He is not a spring chicken in NFL RB years.
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Fantasy Football : 3 RBs Who Will Not Be On My Team
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Wednesday, August 05, 2009
Your Fantasy Binky
I just re-acquired Minnesota Twins' OF Carlos Gomez in the hopes he truly will hold the everyday job and steal some bases. Of course, there is nothing in his current production to indicate he can do that.
Fantasy Football: Eli Manning
Nearly 100 million dollars for a QB who won't start for a single fantasy team in Week One? What a difference between real football and the fantasy one.
No way that contract looks smart after Eli is watched throwing to that group of recievers.
Fantasy Football: Maurice Jones-Drew Hype
Am I the only person who sees Maurice Jones-Drew's hype going into this year and thinks Marion Barber 2008?
Tuesday, August 04, 2009
Save Some FAAB For Jake Peavy
Baseball Prospectus | Under The Knife: Surgery Surge:
"Jake Peavy's schedule is accelerating and there's a chance that he could be back in late August. If so, we'll know soon, as he'll need to be on a mound in the next ten days to hit that schedule."
In AL-Only leagues, Peavy represents the chance to get a $20+ draft day pitcher in 2010 for a fraction of that if your league goes wild and spends its FAAB under the auspices that it can't be taken with you into next season.
"Jake Peavy's schedule is accelerating and there's a chance that he could be back in late August. If so, we'll know soon, as he'll need to be on a mound in the next ten days to hit that schedule."
In AL-Only leagues, Peavy represents the chance to get a $20+ draft day pitcher in 2010 for a fraction of that if your league goes wild and spends its FAAB under the auspices that it can't be taken with you into next season.
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