Currently, the Astros are hoping Jeff Bagwell faces the fact that he is done. This will lead to insurance picking up $15+ million of the $17 million owed to him in 2006. The question is why Bagwell would want to put himself above the team. I always thought he was such a team-first guy.
Regardless, I do not think he has any value this year. He is done and will not seriously impede the ABs of any of the OF or Lance Berkman.
The bullpen is the area of most importance right now. With Lidge in trade rumors, do not be surprised to see him dealt. The Astors did it with Octavio Dotel in 2004 when the were confident Lidge was ready, and I expect them to do it to Lidge when they are convinced either Chad Qualls or Dan Wheeler is ready.
After all, the curtain of untradability has been raised on Lidge. This will make it easier to deal him as management has now dealt hypothetically with such an previously inconceivable idea.
Think about it as if you had an untouchable member of your Roto team. You do not think there is any way you could see yourself dealing him. Then you get an offer that makes you reconsider. Once that has been done, you can see other possibilities with other teams. Before you know it, you have dealt that player.
While I do not like taking mutliple relievers from the same bullpen (I feel there is a reduction in gaining Ws), grabbing Wheeler and Qualls is a good risk. Both should be cheap, and neither will hurt your team. And one of them will close if Lidge is dealt. My guess is Wheeler because his numbers are slightly better - more strikeouts, fewer walks.
On the farm, Josh Anderson looks like the same player Wily Taveras is - speed and no power with minimal OBP skills. If he makes the team, he will be a good $1 source of double digit steals. Just remember he will not provide anything in HR/RBI. If Taveras is dealt or mentioned in trade rumors, it is for this reason - Anderson can step right in and do the same thing.
Sunday, January 22, 2006
Kris Benson Trade
Given the market for #3-#4 quality starting pitchers, this is a good trade for the Orioles. (Yes, I believe getting Anna Benson is a positive, too!) Kris Benson should match the ratios of Esteban Loaiza, signed by the A's for $22MM. This does not mean I think Benson will be worth much more than a few dollars. The wildcard is how well Leo Mazzone works with his pitchers facing DHs and not other pitchers.
The Mets get Jorge Julio and John Maine. I like Maine's potential more than I like Julio as a middle reliever. Following the 2003 season, Maine was considered a top pitching prospect for the O's. He struck out 185 in 147 innings. He followed that performance with 139 Ks in 138 innings mostly at AAA. That led to a brief, and bitter, cup of coffee with the O's.
In 2005, he struggled at AAA (4.56 ERA but still struck out 111 in 128) and in a quarter season's worth of starts with Baltimore (8 starts 6.30 ERA 24 K/24 walks in 40 innings.) Given this was only his first shot at extended exposure, I will not right him off as "failed."
As a matter of fact, the move the Shea could lead to him replacing Heilman in middle relief. With managed exposure in the bullpen, I can see an explosion in performance like Heilman demonstrated last season. I have not added him to my list of major sleeper pitchers (currently consisting of Chuck James and Sidney Ponson), but he is definitely on my watch-carefully list.
The Mets get Jorge Julio and John Maine. I like Maine's potential more than I like Julio as a middle reliever. Following the 2003 season, Maine was considered a top pitching prospect for the O's. He struck out 185 in 147 innings. He followed that performance with 139 Ks in 138 innings mostly at AAA. That led to a brief, and bitter, cup of coffee with the O's.
In 2005, he struggled at AAA (4.56 ERA but still struck out 111 in 128) and in a quarter season's worth of starts with Baltimore (8 starts 6.30 ERA 24 K/24 walks in 40 innings.) Given this was only his first shot at extended exposure, I will not right him off as "failed."
As a matter of fact, the move the Shea could lead to him replacing Heilman in middle relief. With managed exposure in the bullpen, I can see an explosion in performance like Heilman demonstrated last season. I have not added him to my list of major sleeper pitchers (currently consisting of Chuck James and Sidney Ponson), but he is definitely on my watch-carefully list.
Saturday, January 21, 2006
David Wright vs Chase Utley
Another player who is similar to David Wright is Chase Utley. Last season, Utley went 28/105/16/.291 with a .375 OBP and a .540 SLG.. Both players had similar 2004 seasons, too! I am going to say they are the same player.
Given a choice in 2006, whom would you choose? The 23-year-old 3B or the 27 year-old 2B?
Tough call. A look at the available players at their respective positions may help. The one who plays at a position with less depth would be the one to choose. However, even this does not mean one will be better than the other in 2006. It does mean that a team could have one of them with a better player at the other position.
The top NL 3B are Scott Rolen, Chipper Jones, Aramis Ramirez, Morgan Ensberg, Miguel Cabrera (if he actually stays at 3B this year), and Chad Tracy. At the next tier exist Ryan Zimmerman, Joe Randa, Cory Koskie, Bill Hall, Bill Mueller, and Garret Atkins
The top NL 2B are Alphonso Soriano and Jeff Kent. The next tier at this position consists of Craig Biggio, Jose Vidro, Richie Weeks, Ryan Freel, Jose Castillo, Orlando Hudson and Ray Durham. (Weeks go very well be top tier.)
Using position depth the choice is Utley. This may be counter to popular opinion, but that does not make it incorrect. If you have Wright and could get Utley+ for him, do it.
Also, recall Utley split time with Placido Polanco for the first couple months. He will get more plate appearances this season.
Given a choice in 2006, whom would you choose? The 23-year-old 3B or the 27 year-old 2B?
Tough call. A look at the available players at their respective positions may help. The one who plays at a position with less depth would be the one to choose. However, even this does not mean one will be better than the other in 2006. It does mean that a team could have one of them with a better player at the other position.
The top NL 3B are Scott Rolen, Chipper Jones, Aramis Ramirez, Morgan Ensberg, Miguel Cabrera (if he actually stays at 3B this year), and Chad Tracy. At the next tier exist Ryan Zimmerman, Joe Randa, Cory Koskie, Bill Hall, Bill Mueller, and Garret Atkins
The top NL 2B are Alphonso Soriano and Jeff Kent. The next tier at this position consists of Craig Biggio, Jose Vidro, Richie Weeks, Ryan Freel, Jose Castillo, Orlando Hudson and Ray Durham. (Weeks go very well be top tier.)
Using position depth the choice is Utley. This may be counter to popular opinion, but that does not make it incorrect. If you have Wright and could get Utley+ for him, do it.
Also, recall Utley split time with Placido Polanco for the first couple months. He will get more plate appearances this season.
Friday, January 20, 2006
David Wright vs Jeremy Hermida
Over at Rotoauthority, there is quite a debate going on about Tim's projection for Jeremy Hermida that has gotten into a scrap about how much better David Wright is than, reading the hyperbole correctly, every player in the whole frickin' world!
My hyperbole aside, a comparison of two based on their professional career is useful.
David Wright is one year older so a fair compariosn would be Hermida's 2006 vs Wright's 2005 season. If JH comes close to Wright's 2005 performance (27/102/17 .388/.523), then JH will be better. That, however, is quite a bar to reach.
Wright has also been the better player from day one of their repsective careers. His HR totals progressed from 4 to 11 ot 15 to 32 to 27. Hermida's are lower starting at 0 to 6 to 10 to 22 to ??? in his year 22 season.
Hermida does appear to have more patience at the plate as demonstrated by the 117 walks he took last season. Wright's walk totals are not bad but come nowhere close to 100. He could increase though as pitcher's begin to respect his ability more and more.
Hermida's walk total is eye-popping considering he accumulated that with only 427 official ABs. Wright has accomplished his offensive feats with 575 ABs last season and 600 the year before. Based on this, I can see Hermida approaching Wright's power levels if he progresses at the same rate he has in the minors. Hermida also appears to be a much smarter base runner than Wright being caught just 10 times in 77 attempts compared to Wright's 25 times in 112 attempts.
While Wright is certainly the better player right now, I would not be surprised to see Hermida match him and be relatively better value in Rotisserie baseball.
My hyperbole aside, a comparison of two based on their professional career is useful.
David Wright is one year older so a fair compariosn would be Hermida's 2006 vs Wright's 2005 season. If JH comes close to Wright's 2005 performance (27/102/17 .388/.523), then JH will be better. That, however, is quite a bar to reach.
Wright has also been the better player from day one of their repsective careers. His HR totals progressed from 4 to 11 ot 15 to 32 to 27. Hermida's are lower starting at 0 to 6 to 10 to 22 to ??? in his year 22 season.
Hermida does appear to have more patience at the plate as demonstrated by the 117 walks he took last season. Wright's walk totals are not bad but come nowhere close to 100. He could increase though as pitcher's begin to respect his ability more and more.
Hermida's walk total is eye-popping considering he accumulated that with only 427 official ABs. Wright has accomplished his offensive feats with 575 ABs last season and 600 the year before. Based on this, I can see Hermida approaching Wright's power levels if he progresses at the same rate he has in the minors. Hermida also appears to be a much smarter base runner than Wright being caught just 10 times in 77 attempts compared to Wright's 25 times in 112 attempts.
While Wright is certainly the better player right now, I would not be surprised to see Hermida match him and be relatively better value in Rotisserie baseball.
St Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals signed Juan Encarnacion and Larry Bigbie to replace Larry Walker and Reggie Sanders. I don’t think there will be too much of a downgrade there given the injury history of Sanders and Walker. Both replacements should be good for 15 HR/70 RBI with averages in the .280 area. Either could also swipe 10 or so bases.
Braden Looper moved from the closing role with the Mets to the set-up man with the Cards. He won’t close barring injury to Isringhausen, but he should definitely be drafted, as he is the clear-cut back-up. A bid of $4 or $5 is not unreasonable, but I expect $1 or $2 to be more likely. Just keep in mind that he did close for the past three seasons.
I like Sidney Ponson. He has said he is controlling his alcohol issues. That is the single most important factor in determining whether he is worth owning. As long as no news breaks that he has fallen off the wagon, I would be very comfortable adding him to my team for a $1 or $2. The move from the floundering Orioles to the winning Cardinals should also positively contribute to a good season.
Anthony Reyes is the top prospect and should be considered at $1 or $2 if he makes the team out of Spring Training. His strikeout/walk ratio is about 4:1. While that will likely decrease at the major league level, LaRussa and Duncan will use him judiciously. I do not expect superstar performance, but would not be surprised to see a Jason Marquis-esque performance (4.25/1.35/10W).
Braden Looper moved from the closing role with the Mets to the set-up man with the Cards. He won’t close barring injury to Isringhausen, but he should definitely be drafted, as he is the clear-cut back-up. A bid of $4 or $5 is not unreasonable, but I expect $1 or $2 to be more likely. Just keep in mind that he did close for the past three seasons.
I like Sidney Ponson. He has said he is controlling his alcohol issues. That is the single most important factor in determining whether he is worth owning. As long as no news breaks that he has fallen off the wagon, I would be very comfortable adding him to my team for a $1 or $2. The move from the floundering Orioles to the winning Cardinals should also positively contribute to a good season.
Anthony Reyes is the top prospect and should be considered at $1 or $2 if he makes the team out of Spring Training. His strikeout/walk ratio is about 4:1. While that will likely decrease at the major league level, LaRussa and Duncan will use him judiciously. I do not expect superstar performance, but would not be surprised to see a Jason Marquis-esque performance (4.25/1.35/10W).
Wednesday, January 18, 2006
Bruce Chen
He had a breakout season last year for the Orioles.
I wonder if the addition of Leo Mazzone will improve on that?
Or was there something wrong with Mazzone's coaching back when Chen was a Braves prospect that caused Chen to falter?
I wonder if the addition of Leo Mazzone will improve on that?
Or was there something wrong with Mazzone's coaching back when Chen was a Braves prospect that caused Chen to falter?
NL Catchers
A quick perusal of the starting catchers in the NL:
ATL: Brian McCann
NYM: Paul LoDuca
WAS: Brian Schneider
FLA: Miguel Olivo
PHI: Mike Lieberthal
STL: Yadier Molina
HOU: Brad Ausmus
CHC: Michael Barrett
PIT: Humberto Cota
CIN: Jason Larue
MLW: Damian Miller
ARZ: Johnny Estrada
SND: Doug Mirabelli
LAD: Dioner Navarro
COL: Yorvit Torrealbla
SFR: Mike Matheny
The most striking thing in that list is the fact I do not see a single one that would go more than $10 or $11. Heck, the best NL catcher this season may be Florida's Josh Willingham. Pittsburgh's Ryan Doumit may be right near the top, too.
The most powerful one on the list is Jason LaRue and what should he go for? $9? $10? $15? $15 for Jason LaRue would be nuts!
The difference in performance from the top to the bottom is not so great that any team should be compelled to bid up any one of them in order to ensure production from catcher.
Whether you talk up this dearth in order to get other teams to overpay for catchers via trade or bid is another issue.
ATL: Brian McCann
NYM: Paul LoDuca
WAS: Brian Schneider
FLA: Miguel Olivo
PHI: Mike Lieberthal
STL: Yadier Molina
HOU: Brad Ausmus
CHC: Michael Barrett
PIT: Humberto Cota
CIN: Jason Larue
MLW: Damian Miller
ARZ: Johnny Estrada
SND: Doug Mirabelli
LAD: Dioner Navarro
COL: Yorvit Torrealbla
SFR: Mike Matheny
The most striking thing in that list is the fact I do not see a single one that would go more than $10 or $11. Heck, the best NL catcher this season may be Florida's Josh Willingham. Pittsburgh's Ryan Doumit may be right near the top, too.
The most powerful one on the list is Jason LaRue and what should he go for? $9? $10? $15? $15 for Jason LaRue would be nuts!
The difference in performance from the top to the bottom is not so great that any team should be compelled to bid up any one of them in order to ensure production from catcher.
Whether you talk up this dearth in order to get other teams to overpay for catchers via trade or bid is another issue.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs signed veteran OFers John Mabry and Marquis Grissom. This is not a good sign for Matt Murton. I have no faith in Dusty Baker to reign in his proclivity towards playing “veterans” over younger players.
At 2B, Todd Walker is the most accomplished, by far, hitter available and he bats from the left side. There are two ways he doesn’t get 400+ ABs with the Cubs this season – a trade or Dusty can’t stop himself from playing Neifi Perez at 2B because Ronny Cedeno is at SS.
Well, couldn’t Dusty play Perez at SS over Ronny Cedeno? Yes and that is the scenario most likely to occur if the Cubs roster does not change. (I examined Cedeno last season here.)
So if GM Jim Hendry wants Cedeno playing, he had better trade Todd Walker or fire Dusty Baker.
Rich Hill stormed through the minors last season striking out 194 in 132 innings and bombed in a brief appearance with the Cubs, but his dominating strikeout numbers are too hard to write-off - 9.00+ ERA in 23 major league innings be damned! It is that horrendous showing that should keep Hill in the $1 range on draft day. If he bombs, the Cubs will send him back to AAA, and you will have a $1 prospect on reserves.
At 2B, Todd Walker is the most accomplished, by far, hitter available and he bats from the left side. There are two ways he doesn’t get 400+ ABs with the Cubs this season – a trade or Dusty can’t stop himself from playing Neifi Perez at 2B because Ronny Cedeno is at SS.
Well, couldn’t Dusty play Perez at SS over Ronny Cedeno? Yes and that is the scenario most likely to occur if the Cubs roster does not change. (I examined Cedeno last season here.)
So if GM Jim Hendry wants Cedeno playing, he had better trade Todd Walker or fire Dusty Baker.
Rich Hill stormed through the minors last season striking out 194 in 132 innings and bombed in a brief appearance with the Cubs, but his dominating strikeout numbers are too hard to write-off - 9.00+ ERA in 23 major league innings be damned! It is that horrendous showing that should keep Hill in the $1 range on draft day. If he bombs, the Cubs will send him back to AAA, and you will have a $1 prospect on reserves.
Washington Nationals
Alphonso Soriano. If he refuses to play the OF, what will Washington do? Try to trade him for pennies on the dollar, and Bowden is not going to get a Brad Wilkerson back. Say hello to Victor Zambrano!
Force him into the OF and watch him struggle to hit homeruns in RFK? That will get very ugly. Say hello to whomever is the 5th starter in San Diego!
Playing him at 2B seems to be the only way Alphonso stays a happy Nat. That is complicated by the presence of Jose Vidro and his $20+ million contract. This is an ugliness that was entirely avoidable because Soriano said from the get go he wasn't moving to the OF. Why did Bowden get him? And how is that not a firable offense?
With Soriano in the infield, the OF is Jose Guillen, Marlon Byrd and Ryan Church with Michael Tucker serving as the across-the-field 4th OF. I liked Byrd a long time ago, and for a handful of dollars, I would gamble on a return to his rookie performance levels.
Ryan Church looks to be the most likely to get the most OF ABs outside of Guillen. He had a very promising rookie campaign cut short by injury, and this year he will only get better.
In the infield, I can see Bernie Castro and Damian Jackson contributing enough speed to make them useful 14th or 15th hitters. Keep on eye on Castro as he demonstrated very good stealing skills last season between AAA and the Orioles (47 of 55).
RFK will serve to have all the Washington starting pitchers drafted. Patterson's numbers cannot be ignored, but that aside, I am not sold on any of the other pitchers.
The bullpen is Chad Cordero, but the ballpark should keep the others members attractive as roster filler. What I would not expect is a similar number of wins. The team was involved in too many close games. This season the tables may turn, and the Nats could lose those close ones instead of Ayala winning them and Cordero saving them. Yes, the means I do not see Cordero saving 40+.
Force him into the OF and watch him struggle to hit homeruns in RFK? That will get very ugly. Say hello to whomever is the 5th starter in San Diego!
Playing him at 2B seems to be the only way Alphonso stays a happy Nat. That is complicated by the presence of Jose Vidro and his $20+ million contract. This is an ugliness that was entirely avoidable because Soriano said from the get go he wasn't moving to the OF. Why did Bowden get him? And how is that not a firable offense?
With Soriano in the infield, the OF is Jose Guillen, Marlon Byrd and Ryan Church with Michael Tucker serving as the across-the-field 4th OF. I liked Byrd a long time ago, and for a handful of dollars, I would gamble on a return to his rookie performance levels.
Ryan Church looks to be the most likely to get the most OF ABs outside of Guillen. He had a very promising rookie campaign cut short by injury, and this year he will only get better.
In the infield, I can see Bernie Castro and Damian Jackson contributing enough speed to make them useful 14th or 15th hitters. Keep on eye on Castro as he demonstrated very good stealing skills last season between AAA and the Orioles (47 of 55).
RFK will serve to have all the Washington starting pitchers drafted. Patterson's numbers cannot be ignored, but that aside, I am not sold on any of the other pitchers.
The bullpen is Chad Cordero, but the ballpark should keep the others members attractive as roster filler. What I would not expect is a similar number of wins. The team was involved in too many close games. This season the tables may turn, and the Nats could lose those close ones instead of Ayala winning them and Cordero saving them. Yes, the means I do not see Cordero saving 40+.
Tuesday, January 17, 2006
Washington Nationals
Alphonso Soriano. If he refuses to play the OF, what will Washington do? Try to trade him for pennies on the dollar, and Bowden is not going to get a Brad Wilkerson back. Say hello to Victor Zambrano!
Force him into the OF and watch him struggle to hit homeruns in RFK? That will get very ugly. Say hello to whomever is the 5th starter in San Diego!
Playing him at 2B seems to be the only way Alphonso stays a happy Nat. That is complicated by the presence of Jose Vidro and his $20+ million contract. This is an ugliness that was enitrely avaoidable because Soriano said from the get go he wasn't moving to the OF. Why did Bowden get him? And how is that not a firable offense?
With Soriano in the infield, the OF is Jose Guillen, Marlon Byrd and Ryan Church with Michael Tucker serving as the across-the-field 4th OF. I liked Byrd a long time ago, and for a handful of dollars, I would gamble on a return to his rookie performance levels.
Ryan Church looks to be the most likely to get the most OF ABs outside of Guillen. He had a very promising rookie campaign cut short by injury, and this year he will only get better.
In the infield, I can see Bernie Castro and Damian Jackson contributing enough speed to make them useful 14th or 15th hitters. Keep on eye on Castro as he demonstrated very good stealing skills last season between AAA and the Orioles (47 of 55).
RFK will serve to have all the Washington starting pitchers drafted. Patterson's numbers cannot be ignored, but that aside, I am not sold on any of the other pitchers.
The bullpen is Chad Cordero, but the ballpark should keep the others members attractive as roster filler. What I would not expect is a similar number of wins. The team was involved in too many close games. This season the tables may turn, and the Nats could lose those close ones instead of Ayala winning them and Cordero saving them. Yes, the means I do not see Cordero saving 40+.
Force him into the OF and watch him struggle to hit homeruns in RFK? That will get very ugly. Say hello to whomever is the 5th starter in San Diego!
Playing him at 2B seems to be the only way Alphonso stays a happy Nat. That is complicated by the presence of Jose Vidro and his $20+ million contract. This is an ugliness that was enitrely avaoidable because Soriano said from the get go he wasn't moving to the OF. Why did Bowden get him? And how is that not a firable offense?
With Soriano in the infield, the OF is Jose Guillen, Marlon Byrd and Ryan Church with Michael Tucker serving as the across-the-field 4th OF. I liked Byrd a long time ago, and for a handful of dollars, I would gamble on a return to his rookie performance levels.
Ryan Church looks to be the most likely to get the most OF ABs outside of Guillen. He had a very promising rookie campaign cut short by injury, and this year he will only get better.
In the infield, I can see Bernie Castro and Damian Jackson contributing enough speed to make them useful 14th or 15th hitters. Keep on eye on Castro as he demonstrated very good stealing skills last season between AAA and the Orioles (47 of 55).
RFK will serve to have all the Washington starting pitchers drafted. Patterson's numbers cannot be ignored, but that aside, I am not sold on any of the other pitchers.
The bullpen is Chad Cordero, but the ballpark should keep the others members attractive as roster filler. What I would not expect is a similar number of wins. The team was involved in too many close games. This season the tables may turn, and the Nats could lose those close ones instead of Ayala winning them and Cordero saving them. Yes, the means I do not see Cordero saving 40+.
More on Baez
This weekend Baez said he will sign next year as a closer. This recalls my advice on Ueggy Urbina this past season - a premium can be paid on Baez for his 2007 season.
How high should one go on him at draft time? A typical middle reliever/back-up closer should go for $1-$7 depending on how solid the solid closer is. Eric Gagne is questionable coming off elbow surgery.
A closer will go for $20-$35 depending, again, on how solidly he holds the job. A Joe Borowski may only aspire to the low end of $20. Brad Lidge would be at the high end. I would place Baez in the middle at $27.
Simply giving equal weight to his back-up closer value in 2006 and his 2007 closer value, you arrive at a 2006 draft price of $17.
I can't see many teams, myself included, going that high if Gagne is looking good by Spring's end, but I can see myself spending $11 or so.
How high should one go on him at draft time? A typical middle reliever/back-up closer should go for $1-$7 depending on how solid the solid closer is. Eric Gagne is questionable coming off elbow surgery.
A closer will go for $20-$35 depending, again, on how solidly he holds the job. A Joe Borowski may only aspire to the low end of $20. Brad Lidge would be at the high end. I would place Baez in the middle at $27.
Simply giving equal weight to his back-up closer value in 2006 and his 2007 closer value, you arrive at a 2006 draft price of $17.
I can't see many teams, myself included, going that high if Gagne is looking good by Spring's end, but I can see myself spending $11 or so.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are set at every position except 3B and C, and the 2nd stringers are no good, Abraham Nunez and Sal Fasano, respectively.
The Phils still need to add a top of the rotation starter. In order to do this, they are going to have to deal Abreu or Burrell. Otherwise, no one will dislodge Myers or Lieber from the top.
Cole Hamels has been ranked by Baseball America as the organization’s top prospect. Normally, this would keep him off my sleeper lists, but I hear John Sickels comment last week on XM Radio’s Fantasy Focus (channel 175) on the number of HRs he has allowed in his injury-shortened professional career – two in 117 career innings! Both totals are staggering.
Do not be surprised to see Hamels rushed this season. I can see him filling in the back of the rotation or being a major contributor in the bullpen. (Who closes if Gordon’s arm falls off? Hmmmm)
The Phils still need to add a top of the rotation starter. In order to do this, they are going to have to deal Abreu or Burrell. Otherwise, no one will dislodge Myers or Lieber from the top.
Cole Hamels has been ranked by Baseball America as the organization’s top prospect. Normally, this would keep him off my sleeper lists, but I hear John Sickels comment last week on XM Radio’s Fantasy Focus (channel 175) on the number of HRs he has allowed in his injury-shortened professional career – two in 117 career innings! Both totals are staggering.
Do not be surprised to see Hamels rushed this season. I can see him filling in the back of the rotation or being a major contributor in the bullpen. (Who closes if Gordon’s arm falls off? Hmmmm)
Monday, January 16, 2006
Florida Marlins
The open tryouts for the Marlins begin soon. I have touched on Mike Jacobs, 2B, Wes Helms, and Jeremy Hermida (many times but the latest here).
Joe Borowski looks like the closer entering the Spring. Travis Bowyer has the peripheral stat (strikeouts) but experience will likely win out. Why? Because their closer can be flipped at the trading deadline. This means if Borowski falters, Bowyers won’t be the immediate successor. The Marlins will likely try another veteran like Kerry Ligtenberg.
The Marlins landed Hanley Ramirez from the Red Sox in the Beckett. I had soured on him prior to his relocation, but I have to keep an open mind now that he will be forced into full-time duty. If he can hit 5-10 HR and steal 10+ bases, then he is a helpful Roto player. Given 500 Abs and he will.
The outfield is in flux. Hermida has locked down one spot. Miguel Cabrera was slated to move to 3B at last season’s end, but I went over the reasons why he shouldn’t when I blogged Wes Helms. If Cabrera does move to 3B, then the Marlins will still have one wide-open starting spot in the OF. Right now, it is too early to determine who is the frontrunner.
Joe Borowski looks like the closer entering the Spring. Travis Bowyer has the peripheral stat (strikeouts) but experience will likely win out. Why? Because their closer can be flipped at the trading deadline. This means if Borowski falters, Bowyers won’t be the immediate successor. The Marlins will likely try another veteran like Kerry Ligtenberg.
The Marlins landed Hanley Ramirez from the Red Sox in the Beckett. I had soured on him prior to his relocation, but I have to keep an open mind now that he will be forced into full-time duty. If he can hit 5-10 HR and steal 10+ bases, then he is a helpful Roto player. Given 500 Abs and he will.
The outfield is in flux. Hermida has locked down one spot. Miguel Cabrera was slated to move to 3B at last season’s end, but I went over the reasons why he shouldn’t when I blogged Wes Helms. If Cabrera does move to 3B, then the Marlins will still have one wide-open starting spot in the OF. Right now, it is too early to determine who is the frontrunner.
NY Mets
The Mets made more waves this off-season in acquiring slugging 1B Carlos Delgado and fireballing lefty closer Billy Wagner. Both moves are improvements over their last season counterparts. The team also traded for Paul LoDuca and traded away Mike Cameron.
Given those moves, only the RF job offers questions going into 2006. 2B is questionably manned but that is no different than the situation last season. Right now, Victor Diaz and Xavier Nady are at the top of the depth chart. Normally, one could discern and easy favorite by identifying the lefty-hitting side of the platoon. Unfortunately, both players bat from the right side.
The next level down would be defensive prowess. Neither really dazzles with the glove so the determination is still unknown.
With those easy determinants indeterminate, I will go with Victor Diaz because he is the better hitter. Also in his favor is Nady will get some starts at 1B against very tough left-handers. Given Nady’s “greater” defensive flexibility, he will more easily fall into the role of right-handed pinch-hitter/double switcher.
On the mound, the Mets do not have any questions, and with Wagner in the bullpen, there aren’t any unanswered questions either. The only issue is who would close if Wagner were to get hurt.
Aaron Heilman successfully closed at the end of last season and would have to be the favorite to do so as long as he is a member of the bullpen. Duaner Sanchez finished-up in the closer role with the Dodgers and would be the fallback option if Heilman is unavailable (hurt or in the rotation.)
If the Mets free up a rotation spot for Heilman, I like him to surprise on the upside. He will fill the role of the single digits $$ draftee who goes 3.80/1.30 with 12W – a kind of Brad Penny, Doug Davis, Chris Capuano, etc.
Lastings Milledge is their top prospect but currently resides in CF and will have to get off to a fast start in AAA to be recalled. He will also need the RF situation to be disastrous in order to force the Mets to have him open his major league career with a position change.
Given those moves, only the RF job offers questions going into 2006. 2B is questionably manned but that is no different than the situation last season. Right now, Victor Diaz and Xavier Nady are at the top of the depth chart. Normally, one could discern and easy favorite by identifying the lefty-hitting side of the platoon. Unfortunately, both players bat from the right side.
The next level down would be defensive prowess. Neither really dazzles with the glove so the determination is still unknown.
With those easy determinants indeterminate, I will go with Victor Diaz because he is the better hitter. Also in his favor is Nady will get some starts at 1B against very tough left-handers. Given Nady’s “greater” defensive flexibility, he will more easily fall into the role of right-handed pinch-hitter/double switcher.
On the mound, the Mets do not have any questions, and with Wagner in the bullpen, there aren’t any unanswered questions either. The only issue is who would close if Wagner were to get hurt.
Aaron Heilman successfully closed at the end of last season and would have to be the favorite to do so as long as he is a member of the bullpen. Duaner Sanchez finished-up in the closer role with the Dodgers and would be the fallback option if Heilman is unavailable (hurt or in the rotation.)
If the Mets free up a rotation spot for Heilman, I like him to surprise on the upside. He will fill the role of the single digits $$ draftee who goes 3.80/1.30 with 12W – a kind of Brad Penny, Doug Davis, Chris Capuano, etc.
Lastings Milledge is their top prospect but currently resides in CF and will have to get off to a fast start in AAA to be recalled. He will also need the RF situation to be disastrous in order to force the Mets to have him open his major league career with a position change.
Sunday, January 15, 2006
Atlanta Braves
The Braves look to be resigned entering the season with Chris Reitsma as the leading candidate to close. I have my doubts about any commitment to him in that role. After all, the Braves did trade for Kyle Farnsworth last season and immediately made him the closer. I am also concerned because the Reds did the same thing – took the job from him.
What also worries me is his workload over the past two seasons. He has appeared in 80 per season for the past two and his strikeouts dropped by 30% from the 2004 to 2005 season. As a Yankees' fan, I have watched Joe Torre burn through his relievers (Ramiro Mendoza, Jeff Nelson, Mike Stanton, Steve Karsay and last season, Tanyon Sturtze.) I see a giant red flag.
Who would close then? I have covered Jorge Sosa already (Most recently here.). However, GM John Schulerholz said he is not in the bullpen. Joey Devine looks to be the obvious closer-in-waiting. The Braves drafted him 27h overall last draft and recalled him after a brief stint in the minors. He didn’t look great but one can’t dismiss the Braves actions. However, he is not ready as evidenced by his high minor league WHIP in AA and AAA (1.67).
The player I like is Chuck James. While everyone talks about Framcisco Liriano leading the minors in strikeouts, lefty James was right behind him - striking out 193 in 151.1 innings with a greater than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. And James had more success in his as-brief September tryout (1.59 ERA vs 5.70!) I have James right at the top of my NL pitching sleepers with minimum expectations set at a quality middle reliever a la Ryan Madsen.
On offense, the OF is set in center and right field. Left field is a competition between Ryan Langerhans, Kelly Johnson and Matt Diaz. Two of these three will be fantasy contributors. Right now, I would bet Langerhans and Johnson are those two because Bobby Cox is most familiar with them. Matt Diaz had two very good seasons at AAA and may be able to help, but he will have to await his opportunity, if he gets one at all.
IF Diaz does well (and I hope so if only to pile on the incompetence of the Royals organization), I can see some ABs coming at the expense of……Jeff Francoeur! This is clearly not a popular prediction, but I am not sold on Francoeur as much as his torrid 2005 start has led others to be. His minor league plate discipline was abysmal and his power was pedestrian. He is still young, though, so a developmental leap cannot be ruled out. Let’s see how he does after the league has had an entire off-season to watch tape and see where his weaknesses reside.
I covered Brian McCann and top prospect, Jerrod Saltalamacchia here. I like both and will be interested to see how the Braves resolve it. (A trade of McCann is my gut instinct but not until 2007 or 2008 after an even split of PT.)
What also worries me is his workload over the past two seasons. He has appeared in 80 per season for the past two and his strikeouts dropped by 30% from the 2004 to 2005 season. As a Yankees' fan, I have watched Joe Torre burn through his relievers (Ramiro Mendoza, Jeff Nelson, Mike Stanton, Steve Karsay and last season, Tanyon Sturtze.) I see a giant red flag.
Who would close then? I have covered Jorge Sosa already (Most recently here.). However, GM John Schulerholz said he is not in the bullpen. Joey Devine looks to be the obvious closer-in-waiting. The Braves drafted him 27h overall last draft and recalled him after a brief stint in the minors. He didn’t look great but one can’t dismiss the Braves actions. However, he is not ready as evidenced by his high minor league WHIP in AA and AAA (1.67).
The player I like is Chuck James. While everyone talks about Framcisco Liriano leading the minors in strikeouts, lefty James was right behind him - striking out 193 in 151.1 innings with a greater than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. And James had more success in his as-brief September tryout (1.59 ERA vs 5.70!) I have James right at the top of my NL pitching sleepers with minimum expectations set at a quality middle reliever a la Ryan Madsen.
On offense, the OF is set in center and right field. Left field is a competition between Ryan Langerhans, Kelly Johnson and Matt Diaz. Two of these three will be fantasy contributors. Right now, I would bet Langerhans and Johnson are those two because Bobby Cox is most familiar with them. Matt Diaz had two very good seasons at AAA and may be able to help, but he will have to await his opportunity, if he gets one at all.
IF Diaz does well (and I hope so if only to pile on the incompetence of the Royals organization), I can see some ABs coming at the expense of……Jeff Francoeur! This is clearly not a popular prediction, but I am not sold on Francoeur as much as his torrid 2005 start has led others to be. His minor league plate discipline was abysmal and his power was pedestrian. He is still young, though, so a developmental leap cannot be ruled out. Let’s see how he does after the league has had an entire off-season to watch tape and see where his weaknesses reside.
I covered Brian McCann and top prospect, Jerrod Saltalamacchia here. I like both and will be interested to see how the Braves resolve it. (A trade of McCann is my gut instinct but not until 2007 or 2008 after an even split of PT.)
TB/LA Trade
A few thoughts:
TB did well to land two previously well-thought-of pitching prospects for a 31-year-old journeyman and 2007 free-agent-to-be. Conversley, why did LA trade for two middle relievers.
The closing role in TB in now an open competition. Orvella would be the favorite, but I would watch to see what the new manager does this spring. Who does he pitch in the third and fourth inning at the begining and who is finishing at the end of Spring training.
Does LA's acquistion of Baez signal that Gagne is not going to be ready?
TB did well to land two previously well-thought-of pitching prospects for a 31-year-old journeyman and 2007 free-agent-to-be. Conversley, why did LA trade for two middle relievers.
The closing role in TB in now an open competition. Orvella would be the favorite, but I would watch to see what the new manager does this spring. Who does he pitch in the third and fourth inning at the begining and who is finishing at the end of Spring training.
Does LA's acquistion of Baez signal that Gagne is not going to be ready?
Saturday, January 14, 2006
Texas Rangers
What defines the Rangers is their tremendous infield – Texeria, Young and Blalock (in that order.) The definition had previously included Rot stud/real-life dud, Alphonso Soriano but he was dealt to the Expos, I mean, Nationals.
And it is this trade that offers the two most intriguing players for the team, Ian Kinsler and Brad Wilkerson. (Disclaimer: Both players were high minor league draft picks of mine – Kinsler #2 overall last season and Wilkerson #3 overall 5 years ago.)
Yesterday, I listened to the Fantasy Focus show on XM Radio while strolling The Avenue of the Americas in NYC. The guest was a gentleman form the website, newbergreport.com. He lauded Kinsler as a potential 25 HR/80 RBI/.280 AVG/20 SB player. That seems excessive because it makes him a $40 Roto player in keeper leagues. I like him. I really do, but that type of performance is going to make him one of the best in Roto and that I do not see. His walk rate has not changed (one every ten ABs) and his slugging was under .500 in the AA texas League and the AAA Pacific Coats League - both considered hitter's leagues. I do see him being mentioned in ROY talks assuming he wins the job from the more experienced D'Angelo Jimenez.
Jimenez fell apart last season after posting two very promising seasons (63 BB in 2003 and 82 in 2004). He maintained his plate discipline during his AAA banishment. Do not be surprised to see him surprise. Recall the amount of PT Dave Dellucci received with his batting eye. Also keep in mind that he just turned 28.
Brad Wilkerson had a terrible year that coincided with a sterner steroid test. I do not think that is the case, but that conclusion can be sold to cast doubt upon his value. Personally, I attribute the drop to the cavernous RFK Stadium and injury. He did maintain his batting eye so I expect a rebound in Texas to the 2004 levels, and if Buck bats him in the heart of the order, I see a career year.
The Rangers spent a lot of money/players on pitching. I don’t expect Millwood to "Chan Ho Park" the Rangers and Tom Hicks, but I also do not expect him to match last season’s performance. A high 3s ERA seems reasonable to expect. I didn’t like Adam Eaton as a NL pitcher in a pitcher’s park so I can’t see myself liking him in the AL and a hitter’s park.
In the minors, the Rangers have DVD – Diamond, Volquez and Danks. In the same Fantasy Focus, the newbergreport.com gentleman said Volquez is the best amongst the three. Until Texas actually produces a good SP, I am going to pass on all of them while remembering that opinion.
And it is this trade that offers the two most intriguing players for the team, Ian Kinsler and Brad Wilkerson. (Disclaimer: Both players were high minor league draft picks of mine – Kinsler #2 overall last season and Wilkerson #3 overall 5 years ago.)
Yesterday, I listened to the Fantasy Focus show on XM Radio while strolling The Avenue of the Americas in NYC. The guest was a gentleman form the website, newbergreport.com. He lauded Kinsler as a potential 25 HR/80 RBI/.280 AVG/20 SB player. That seems excessive because it makes him a $40 Roto player in keeper leagues. I like him. I really do, but that type of performance is going to make him one of the best in Roto and that I do not see. His walk rate has not changed (one every ten ABs) and his slugging was under .500 in the AA texas League and the AAA Pacific Coats League - both considered hitter's leagues. I do see him being mentioned in ROY talks assuming he wins the job from the more experienced D'Angelo Jimenez.
Jimenez fell apart last season after posting two very promising seasons (63 BB in 2003 and 82 in 2004). He maintained his plate discipline during his AAA banishment. Do not be surprised to see him surprise. Recall the amount of PT Dave Dellucci received with his batting eye. Also keep in mind that he just turned 28.
Brad Wilkerson had a terrible year that coincided with a sterner steroid test. I do not think that is the case, but that conclusion can be sold to cast doubt upon his value. Personally, I attribute the drop to the cavernous RFK Stadium and injury. He did maintain his batting eye so I expect a rebound in Texas to the 2004 levels, and if Buck bats him in the heart of the order, I see a career year.
The Rangers spent a lot of money/players on pitching. I don’t expect Millwood to "Chan Ho Park" the Rangers and Tom Hicks, but I also do not expect him to match last season’s performance. A high 3s ERA seems reasonable to expect. I didn’t like Adam Eaton as a NL pitcher in a pitcher’s park so I can’t see myself liking him in the AL and a hitter’s park.
In the minors, the Rangers have DVD – Diamond, Volquez and Danks. In the same Fantasy Focus, the newbergreport.com gentleman said Volquez is the best amongst the three. Until Texas actually produces a good SP, I am going to pass on all of them while remembering that opinion.
Friday, January 13, 2006
Oakland A's
Given all the gushing press Oakland GM Billy Beane receives, I am not sure any player can be considered a sleeper. The first place Roto players go is Oakland to see what scrap heap player he has taken on as his latest reclamation project. The fact everyone knows to looks here makes it less likely anyone slips under the radar though.
The two players that will receive the most scrutiny are Antonio Perez and Esteban Loaiza.
One because he seemed like a typical throw-in player in a Roto trade and the other because of the enormity of the contract he signed.
Beginning with the throw-in, Antonio Perez. I have liked him since his prospect days with the Mariners through his days as part of the Piniella trade to his 2004 season in Las Vegas. I have always thought he would produce if given the chance. Last year, he hit .297 with 11 SB in 250 Abs. My confidence remains unshaken.
With that background, one would think I’d expect big things from him going to an organization that appreciates his ability, and I would if I thought there was anywhere for him to play!
The OF is clogged with Kielty, Payton, Bradley and Kotsay. The infielder is clogged with Chavez and Crosby, and Swisher and Dan Johnson have 1B/DH ABs spoken for. Never mind a torrid start in AAA by Daric Barton that could force the A’s to recall him.
The one place there could be some time is at 2B, but this is the one area I see delivering some value. Mark Ellis had a very good year last year under the guise of a scrappy middle infielder. He hit .316 with 13 HR in 400 or so Abs after missing all of 2004 with injury.
It is that lost season that will serve to keep him under priced. His 2002 and 2003 seasons led to the conclusion that he was nothing more than mediocre-hitting defender. He then missed all of 2004. When he returned, his initial impressions stuck.
That impression will be hard to kick despite last season, and the with AP acquisition, many will guess Ellis will lose time. I don’t believe he will. He has a decent glove and hit well. AP won’t be able to crack through just as Keith Ginter couldn’t last year. (Hey! Wasn’t Ginter in the same situation as AP?)
Loaiza is a strange signing. A tight-fisted organization doling out $21 million over three years for a back-of-the-rotation starter? Did someone notice something in Loaiza’s mechanics that will return him to his performance in his best season, 2003, or even to maintain his RFK-dependent numbers from last season? If so, he will be a good player.
With that possibility, he could be a decent sleeper.
The two players that will receive the most scrutiny are Antonio Perez and Esteban Loaiza.
One because he seemed like a typical throw-in player in a Roto trade and the other because of the enormity of the contract he signed.
Beginning with the throw-in, Antonio Perez. I have liked him since his prospect days with the Mariners through his days as part of the Piniella trade to his 2004 season in Las Vegas. I have always thought he would produce if given the chance. Last year, he hit .297 with 11 SB in 250 Abs. My confidence remains unshaken.
With that background, one would think I’d expect big things from him going to an organization that appreciates his ability, and I would if I thought there was anywhere for him to play!
The OF is clogged with Kielty, Payton, Bradley and Kotsay. The infielder is clogged with Chavez and Crosby, and Swisher and Dan Johnson have 1B/DH ABs spoken for. Never mind a torrid start in AAA by Daric Barton that could force the A’s to recall him.
The one place there could be some time is at 2B, but this is the one area I see delivering some value. Mark Ellis had a very good year last year under the guise of a scrappy middle infielder. He hit .316 with 13 HR in 400 or so Abs after missing all of 2004 with injury.
It is that lost season that will serve to keep him under priced. His 2002 and 2003 seasons led to the conclusion that he was nothing more than mediocre-hitting defender. He then missed all of 2004. When he returned, his initial impressions stuck.
That impression will be hard to kick despite last season, and the with AP acquisition, many will guess Ellis will lose time. I don’t believe he will. He has a decent glove and hit well. AP won’t be able to crack through just as Keith Ginter couldn’t last year. (Hey! Wasn’t Ginter in the same situation as AP?)
Loaiza is a strange signing. A tight-fisted organization doling out $21 million over three years for a back-of-the-rotation starter? Did someone notice something in Loaiza’s mechanics that will return him to his performance in his best season, 2003, or even to maintain his RFK-dependent numbers from last season? If so, he will be a good player.
With that possibility, he could be a decent sleeper.
Seattle Mariners
The focus of the Mariners is the players up the middle – Jeremy Reed, Yuni Betancourt and Jose Lopez. All three are good-to-great defenders, but their bats have not played well yet.
Yuni Betancourt will not hit enough in 2006, but his glove will play very well and keep him in the line-up every day. Did you like the pre-2004 Cesar Izturis? If so, go and get him, but do not wonder why your AVG won’t move up. 500+ ABs of .240 hitting is hard to overcome.
Jose Lopez is an interesting player. He was hyped as a top prospect after a great season in single A, which he followed with an equally impressive AA season in 2003 at the age of 19. But he has not lived-up to expectations in a 200 AB “audition” in 2004 or in 2005. However, he cannot be written off too quickly because he just turned 22 in November. That mean his first 200 AB audition was as a 200year-old, and his second (last season) was done as a 21-year-old.
I can see him putting up a mid-single digits HR total and a low double digits SB total. Not an anchor in the middle but a very nice complimentary player, and if you end up shut out of quality middle infielders near draft’s end, then he will be a very nice end game pick-up.
Jeremy Reed is another hyped prospect that did not live-up to his billing last season, his inaugural one. He hit .397 in a 58 AB trial at 2004 season-end. This, after tearing through the minors as a high AVG player with double digit HR and great SB totals, set expectations very high for 2005.
And he failed based on those expectations (3/45/.254/12 with 11 caught-stealing). He played Gold Glove caliber defense, though, and this will keep him in CF for 2006. As defense in not a Roto category, his 2005 numbers will determine his draft price. In no way do I believe he will be the .300/15/30 player envisioned a year ago, but I do believe he will improve, and that slight improvement will make him a viable 4th OF in a 5-man Roto OF.
The Seattle rotation will benefit from this up-the-middle quality defense and the pitcher-friendly confines of the home ballpark.
The bullpen has 2007 free-agent-to-be, Eddie Guardado, closing until he gets hurt. Right behind him are 2004 season-ending closer JJ Putz and in vogue closer-in-waiting Rafael Soriano. Right now, I’d say Putz gets first shot, but he could easily give way to Soriano. The question is how long Putz holds the role until doing so.
On the farm, I like Adam Jones to be a sleeper prospect. He is being moved from SS to CF and has made AA as a 19-year-old. Combined, he hit .297 with 15 HR and 13 SB. If he improves again, he will move into Chris Young territory, and as such, will become one of the most watched prospects in 2006.
Yuni Betancourt will not hit enough in 2006, but his glove will play very well and keep him in the line-up every day. Did you like the pre-2004 Cesar Izturis? If so, go and get him, but do not wonder why your AVG won’t move up. 500+ ABs of .240 hitting is hard to overcome.
Jose Lopez is an interesting player. He was hyped as a top prospect after a great season in single A, which he followed with an equally impressive AA season in 2003 at the age of 19. But he has not lived-up to expectations in a 200 AB “audition” in 2004 or in 2005. However, he cannot be written off too quickly because he just turned 22 in November. That mean his first 200 AB audition was as a 200year-old, and his second (last season) was done as a 21-year-old.
I can see him putting up a mid-single digits HR total and a low double digits SB total. Not an anchor in the middle but a very nice complimentary player, and if you end up shut out of quality middle infielders near draft’s end, then he will be a very nice end game pick-up.
Jeremy Reed is another hyped prospect that did not live-up to his billing last season, his inaugural one. He hit .397 in a 58 AB trial at 2004 season-end. This, after tearing through the minors as a high AVG player with double digit HR and great SB totals, set expectations very high for 2005.
And he failed based on those expectations (3/45/.254/12 with 11 caught-stealing). He played Gold Glove caliber defense, though, and this will keep him in CF for 2006. As defense in not a Roto category, his 2005 numbers will determine his draft price. In no way do I believe he will be the .300/15/30 player envisioned a year ago, but I do believe he will improve, and that slight improvement will make him a viable 4th OF in a 5-man Roto OF.
The Seattle rotation will benefit from this up-the-middle quality defense and the pitcher-friendly confines of the home ballpark.
The bullpen has 2007 free-agent-to-be, Eddie Guardado, closing until he gets hurt. Right behind him are 2004 season-ending closer JJ Putz and in vogue closer-in-waiting Rafael Soriano. Right now, I’d say Putz gets first shot, but he could easily give way to Soriano. The question is how long Putz holds the role until doing so.
On the farm, I like Adam Jones to be a sleeper prospect. He is being moved from SS to CF and has made AA as a 19-year-old. Combined, he hit .297 with 15 HR and 13 SB. If he improves again, he will move into Chris Young territory, and as such, will become one of the most watched prospects in 2006.
Ronny Cedeno beware!
ChicagoSports.com - Baker fundamental about improvement
A telling quote:
"Q Speaking of trades, who's your starting second baseman, Neifi Perez or Todd Walker?
A Right now Todd Walker is our second baseman. He's here. I've heard a lot of speculation [about a trade], but right now we have about 10 weeks before we start. Let us do our thing and we'll be ready by Opening Day."
Since I have no faith that Dusty won't play Neifi Perez, it looks like Cedeno's nominal role as the starting SS is in jeopardy.
Given the Cubs lack of left-handed hitting, starting Todd Walker makes sense.
Given Neifi Perez's lack of hitting ability, starting Ronny Cedeno makes sense. Or at the very least a 2/3 playing time split in his favor for the first month or so.
A telling quote:
"Q Speaking of trades, who's your starting second baseman, Neifi Perez or Todd Walker?
A Right now Todd Walker is our second baseman. He's here. I've heard a lot of speculation [about a trade], but right now we have about 10 weeks before we start. Let us do our thing and we'll be ready by Opening Day."
Since I have no faith that Dusty won't play Neifi Perez, it looks like Cedeno's nominal role as the starting SS is in jeopardy.
Given the Cubs lack of left-handed hitting, starting Todd Walker makes sense.
Given Neifi Perez's lack of hitting ability, starting Ronny Cedeno makes sense. Or at the very least a 2/3 playing time split in his favor for the first month or so.
Thursday, January 12, 2006
The Angels Angels of Anaheim
The Angels recently decided to move Darin Erstad back to CF and allow Casey Kotchman to start at 1B. This will give Erstad additional position flexibility on draft day (assuming you draft after the season begins). This is always a plus.
As a 1B, Erstad was no better than a $5-$11 player. His AVG was good and his SB total is excellent for the position. He also gets 60 or so RBI as a full-time player. However, the added SB does not make-up for the utter lack of power from a power position. Now that he can be moved to the OF where he slots amongst 4 other players, he is more attractive.
Casey Kotchman took a step forward in HR last season. If he can maintain that additional power (given the sample size, it could be a fluke), then I can see him being a $20+ player. What I do not see is him going for that in a draft. Mid-teens is more likely. If you can deal for him as if he is a $15 player, then go for him.
Chone Figgins is the new 3B now that Erstad has taken his position. He also has 2B and OF eligibility. However, he is no sleeper. My concerns about him always center on where he will get his ABs. This year is no different with the exception that I do not have the same degree of intensity for these concerns. (That should worry people!)
The only 25-man concern is Dallas McPherson, but he is coming off a hip injury. Given the Angels decisions so far, my guess is he will not be 100% to start the season and as such offers Figgins no immediate competition for 3B ABs. He can also share in the DH role with Juan Rivera, who had a very good season last year in 350 ABs (15 HR/59 RBI but what is with the 9 CS and 1 SB?) Here is a place of note, McPherson bats from the left side and rivers from the right. That is the wrong side of a platoon for any Juan Rivera enthusiasts.
Even if Brandon Wood takes over at 3B in 2006, I do not see Figgins getting bumped out of ABs. Adam Kennedy will, as Figgins moves over to 2B. If there is an injury in the OF, Figgins will move there, McPherson to 3B and Riveria’s ABs will be preserved at DH. However, an OF injury may be the impetus to recall Wood. If so, then the cascade of Figgins to 2B will occur and a trade of Kennedy will soon follow.
On the mound, I do not see too much change from last season with a caveat to John Lackey who may see his ERA rise to match his WHIP. Even that could be mitigated by maintenance of a 200-strikeout season.
On the farm, everyone knows about Brandon Wood and Howie Kendrick. Both should be grabbed very high in a minor league draft or as quickly as possible once recalled. Jered Weaver looks to be the first starter recalled this year. He could be good and will get a lot of attention, but he may only match Ervin Santana, who received similar attention and hype but did not do much for a Roto team in innings-weighted ERA/WHIP. His wins were great but anyone expecting him to win more than 50% of his starts again is a sucker. Only a handful of major league pitchers win 50% of their starts in a season.
As a 1B, Erstad was no better than a $5-$11 player. His AVG was good and his SB total is excellent for the position. He also gets 60 or so RBI as a full-time player. However, the added SB does not make-up for the utter lack of power from a power position. Now that he can be moved to the OF where he slots amongst 4 other players, he is more attractive.
Casey Kotchman took a step forward in HR last season. If he can maintain that additional power (given the sample size, it could be a fluke), then I can see him being a $20+ player. What I do not see is him going for that in a draft. Mid-teens is more likely. If you can deal for him as if he is a $15 player, then go for him.
Chone Figgins is the new 3B now that Erstad has taken his position. He also has 2B and OF eligibility. However, he is no sleeper. My concerns about him always center on where he will get his ABs. This year is no different with the exception that I do not have the same degree of intensity for these concerns. (That should worry people!)
The only 25-man concern is Dallas McPherson, but he is coming off a hip injury. Given the Angels decisions so far, my guess is he will not be 100% to start the season and as such offers Figgins no immediate competition for 3B ABs. He can also share in the DH role with Juan Rivera, who had a very good season last year in 350 ABs (15 HR/59 RBI but what is with the 9 CS and 1 SB?) Here is a place of note, McPherson bats from the left side and rivers from the right. That is the wrong side of a platoon for any Juan Rivera enthusiasts.
Even if Brandon Wood takes over at 3B in 2006, I do not see Figgins getting bumped out of ABs. Adam Kennedy will, as Figgins moves over to 2B. If there is an injury in the OF, Figgins will move there, McPherson to 3B and Riveria’s ABs will be preserved at DH. However, an OF injury may be the impetus to recall Wood. If so, then the cascade of Figgins to 2B will occur and a trade of Kennedy will soon follow.
On the mound, I do not see too much change from last season with a caveat to John Lackey who may see his ERA rise to match his WHIP. Even that could be mitigated by maintenance of a 200-strikeout season.
On the farm, everyone knows about Brandon Wood and Howie Kendrick. Both should be grabbed very high in a minor league draft or as quickly as possible once recalled. Jered Weaver looks to be the first starter recalled this year. He could be good and will get a lot of attention, but he may only match Ervin Santana, who received similar attention and hype but did not do much for a Roto team in innings-weighted ERA/WHIP. His wins were great but anyone expecting him to win more than 50% of his starts again is a sucker. Only a handful of major league pitchers win 50% of their starts in a season.
Wednesday, January 11, 2006
Full-Valued Keepers
As a rule, I will keep full-valued players who are All-Star caliber. $36 for Ichiro or Tejada doesn't bother me. $35 for Derek Lee doesn't either.
When the salary of these players becomes prohibitive is during trades. If I am offered a $35 Derek Lee for a $2 Ryan Church, I say no. Not because I believe, in any way, that Church will match Lee, but because I immediately see the $33 difference and consider that sum enough to land another All-Star caliber hitter and have Church.
The risk question is whether I can find a player as good as Church for $2 or if I can find a player close to Lee for $33. As long as one is willing to spend money, any player can be had. (Take note voters for general manager of the year.)
Right now, Church is a nominal starter in Washington. He hit .287 with 9 HR last season in 268 ABs as a rookie. With more playing time, their is 15 HR upside with a good AVG. That is a mid-teens $$ player.
How do you get that in a draft for minimal money? Remember every team can complete for the cheapest players. Can you identify who this season's Ryan Church's will be? Can you identify who the $30+ players will be?
While that question is rhetorical, I'll answer it "no" and "yes" respectively.
When the salary of these players becomes prohibitive is during trades. If I am offered a $35 Derek Lee for a $2 Ryan Church, I say no. Not because I believe, in any way, that Church will match Lee, but because I immediately see the $33 difference and consider that sum enough to land another All-Star caliber hitter and have Church.
The risk question is whether I can find a player as good as Church for $2 or if I can find a player close to Lee for $33. As long as one is willing to spend money, any player can be had. (Take note voters for general manager of the year.)
Right now, Church is a nominal starter in Washington. He hit .287 with 9 HR last season in 268 ABs as a rookie. With more playing time, their is 15 HR upside with a good AVG. That is a mid-teens $$ player.
How do you get that in a draft for minimal money? Remember every team can complete for the cheapest players. Can you identify who this season's Ryan Church's will be? Can you identify who the $30+ players will be?
While that question is rhetorical, I'll answer it "no" and "yes" respectively.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are tough to figure. As I look over the roster, I am struck by the fact that I see lots of playing time complications for those players who broke through last season – Chris Shelton, Placido Polanco, Curtis Granderson, Nook Logan, and maybe (again) Carlos Pena. All of those players had seasons that left Roto teams wanting more.
I can’t say with conviction that is going to be satisfied. Shelton and Pena are competing for the same position. One of them could DH but Dmitri Young takes that spot. If the 1B and DH spots in the line-up were split that would leave each player with about 400 or so plate appearances – around what they had last season. I cannot confidently say any of those players will do considerably better in the same number of ABs.
In the OF, Magglio Ordonez, Craig Monroe, Curtis Granderson and Nook Logan will have to divide the ABs. At season’s end, I figured there was no way Logan would grab any ABs in 2006, but new manager Jim Leyland has made comments that lead to speculation that Nook will start in CF. This pushes Curtis Granderson, and his 8 HR in 166 AB debut, towards a corner OF spot. Both of which are occupied by more accomplished OFers, Magglio Ordonez and Craig Monroe.
At 2B, Placido Polanco hit a rather empty .331. - 9 HR, 54 RBI and 4 SB. I’d have expected a few more RBI than that. Given he does not walk often, I expect the AVG to drop 30+ points, but I expect him to be drafted on the .331 AVG; thus he will be overpriced by $5-$10 on draft. (Should go for $9-$17. Will go for $18-$24.)
A much better play for the same production will be his DP partner, Carlos Guillen. A miasma of injury clouds the perception of the former Mariner, but he has hit .320 in his first two seasons in Detroit. I do not expect that to change. I do not expect him to match his stellar 2004 season, but getting halfway there will better Polanco’s production and should come for less on draft day.
On the mound, I have already addressed Jeremy Bonderman here.
Todd Jones was signed to close, and I do not see anyone taking the job from him. If he fails, Fernando Rodney would be the favorite as he got shots the in the previous few seasons. The wildcard is Jim Leyland. No one knows which middle reliever(s) he will think has the guts to do it. Watch this aspect closely in spring training. Does he seem to say positive things about one of the relievers? Does he keep putting the same pitcher in tough spots – at the end of the game towards the end of the month, in the 3rd and 4th inning in the beginning of the month? Matt Mantei just signed there and becomes the most accomplished closer of the bunch.
On the farm, everyone knows about Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya. Watch both, but I do not have the confidence either will be immediate contributors in Detroit.
I can’t say with conviction that is going to be satisfied. Shelton and Pena are competing for the same position. One of them could DH but Dmitri Young takes that spot. If the 1B and DH spots in the line-up were split that would leave each player with about 400 or so plate appearances – around what they had last season. I cannot confidently say any of those players will do considerably better in the same number of ABs.
In the OF, Magglio Ordonez, Craig Monroe, Curtis Granderson and Nook Logan will have to divide the ABs. At season’s end, I figured there was no way Logan would grab any ABs in 2006, but new manager Jim Leyland has made comments that lead to speculation that Nook will start in CF. This pushes Curtis Granderson, and his 8 HR in 166 AB debut, towards a corner OF spot. Both of which are occupied by more accomplished OFers, Magglio Ordonez and Craig Monroe.
At 2B, Placido Polanco hit a rather empty .331. - 9 HR, 54 RBI and 4 SB. I’d have expected a few more RBI than that. Given he does not walk often, I expect the AVG to drop 30+ points, but I expect him to be drafted on the .331 AVG; thus he will be overpriced by $5-$10 on draft. (Should go for $9-$17. Will go for $18-$24.)
A much better play for the same production will be his DP partner, Carlos Guillen. A miasma of injury clouds the perception of the former Mariner, but he has hit .320 in his first two seasons in Detroit. I do not expect that to change. I do not expect him to match his stellar 2004 season, but getting halfway there will better Polanco’s production and should come for less on draft day.
On the mound, I have already addressed Jeremy Bonderman here.
Todd Jones was signed to close, and I do not see anyone taking the job from him. If he fails, Fernando Rodney would be the favorite as he got shots the in the previous few seasons. The wildcard is Jim Leyland. No one knows which middle reliever(s) he will think has the guts to do it. Watch this aspect closely in spring training. Does he seem to say positive things about one of the relievers? Does he keep putting the same pitcher in tough spots – at the end of the game towards the end of the month, in the 3rd and 4th inning in the beginning of the month? Matt Mantei just signed there and becomes the most accomplished closer of the bunch.
On the farm, everyone knows about Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya. Watch both, but I do not have the confidence either will be immediate contributors in Detroit.
Kansas City
The most distinguishing mark the Royals made this off-season is the plethora of end of the 25-man-roster additions they signed – Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Grudzielanek, Paul Bako, Elmer Dessens, Joe Mays, Scott Elarton.
I’ve covered various players that I like in previous posts (Here for Emil Brown. Here for Esteban German.)
A player I do like that shouldn’t get too much, if any, hype is catcher John Buck. He hit 12 HRs last season and that total is very good for a catcher nowadays. He will enter his third season, and an expectation of improvement due to experience is not irrational. What would be is if I expected that improvement to take him north of .280 with 25 HR, but an improvement to .250-.260 with 15 HR is not. For a $1 or $2, that is nice from a position that is punted more often than a Jets football.
One comment about the RBI totals for the Royals this season. Given a very weak line-up (current definition: Emil Brown as the uncontested as a #5 hitter.), I do not expect the leaders, Sweeney and Brown, to drive in more than 90. There just won’t be enough men on base. This isn’t a Moneyball analysis based on OBP. This is a plain ol’ the hitters stink one. There is really nothing to fear from the bottom four hitters in the line-up. I know Buck is one of them, but hitting .260 with 15 HR is not fearful when the players in front and in back of him will not match that power.
On the mound, I can state with confidence that I do not like the risk/reward equation of any starter. As none, will rack-up in-the-teens Ws, the innings-weighted ERA/WHIP contribution is too high. Zach Greinke would have been an exception, but he was so bad last year, that I would rather have another team draft him. If he reverts back to his rookie form, then I will whole-heartedly pay full-price in a trade for him.
In the bullpen, MacDougal will open as the closer, and Abriorix Burgos is so well known that there shouldn’t be any surprises.
On the farm, 2006 begins and ends with Alex Gordon. He will not be unknown but should be grabbed at the same time Brandon Wood is in a minor league draft or bid to $20 if he makes the team out of Spring Training. His plate discipline and power in college are good, but college doesn't count. In the AFL, he hit .260 in 50 ABs and drew 12 walks! Mark Teahan watch out!
I’ve covered various players that I like in previous posts (Here for Emil Brown. Here for Esteban German.)
A player I do like that shouldn’t get too much, if any, hype is catcher John Buck. He hit 12 HRs last season and that total is very good for a catcher nowadays. He will enter his third season, and an expectation of improvement due to experience is not irrational. What would be is if I expected that improvement to take him north of .280 with 25 HR, but an improvement to .250-.260 with 15 HR is not. For a $1 or $2, that is nice from a position that is punted more often than a Jets football.
One comment about the RBI totals for the Royals this season. Given a very weak line-up (current definition: Emil Brown as the uncontested as a #5 hitter.), I do not expect the leaders, Sweeney and Brown, to drive in more than 90. There just won’t be enough men on base. This isn’t a Moneyball analysis based on OBP. This is a plain ol’ the hitters stink one. There is really nothing to fear from the bottom four hitters in the line-up. I know Buck is one of them, but hitting .260 with 15 HR is not fearful when the players in front and in back of him will not match that power.
On the mound, I can state with confidence that I do not like the risk/reward equation of any starter. As none, will rack-up in-the-teens Ws, the innings-weighted ERA/WHIP contribution is too high. Zach Greinke would have been an exception, but he was so bad last year, that I would rather have another team draft him. If he reverts back to his rookie form, then I will whole-heartedly pay full-price in a trade for him.
In the bullpen, MacDougal will open as the closer, and Abriorix Burgos is so well known that there shouldn’t be any surprises.
On the farm, 2006 begins and ends with Alex Gordon. He will not be unknown but should be grabbed at the same time Brandon Wood is in a minor league draft or bid to $20 if he makes the team out of Spring Training. His plate discipline and power in college are good, but college doesn't count. In the AFL, he hit .260 in 50 ABs and drew 12 walks! Mark Teahan watch out!
Tuesday, January 10, 2006
FOXSports.com - MLB- O's should still listen to offers for Tejada
FOXSports.com - MLB- O's should still listen to offers for Tejada
Ken Rosenthal reports the Astros offered Brad Lidge, Adam Everett and either Jason lane or Wily Tavares for Miguel Tejeda.
I am stunned that Tejada is still an Oriole. I'd be more stunned if 28 other teams have been getting busy signals all morning on the Atros telephone line.
That offer is absolutely the best one the Os could ever hope for. A top flight closer, a good defensive shortstop and a quality OF who can play all three spots. All the players are reltively inexpensive to boot.
With the Red Sox needing a SS, CF and a closer, do you think they flew Manny and $20 million in cash to Houston already?
Jeez, the offer is so good that I think it is, in fact, not true, and foxspsports.com is being played.
Ken Rosenthal reports the Astros offered Brad Lidge, Adam Everett and either Jason lane or Wily Tavares for Miguel Tejeda.
I am stunned that Tejada is still an Oriole. I'd be more stunned if 28 other teams have been getting busy signals all morning on the Atros telephone line.
That offer is absolutely the best one the Os could ever hope for. A top flight closer, a good defensive shortstop and a quality OF who can play all three spots. All the players are reltively inexpensive to boot.
With the Red Sox needing a SS, CF and a closer, do you think they flew Manny and $20 million in cash to Houston already?
Jeez, the offer is so good that I think it is, in fact, not true, and foxspsports.com is being played.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins seem to be hoping for there first 30+ HR season since 1987 to come from Jusitn Morneau. It very well may, but Morneau is so well-known that I cannot envision him being a sleeper. After all, he did hit 22 HR last season. That is not an amount that anyone would be shocked to see rise to 30.
Jason Bartlett, on the other hand, was highly touted entering last season but did not live up to that touting. This season I expect him to do so. I see a 10 HR/15+ SB campaign with a non-harmful AVG (.270 or so). Given his poor 2005, he should come fairly cheaply - no more than $9 or $10 if he is available when multiple team finds themsleves with some draft cash and a need in the middle.
Jason Kubel will be given every chance to win a starting job. He was highly-touted following the 2004 season. Despite missing all of 2005, he has not been forgotten. I would not hesitate to go into the high teens for him if he is healthy, but I also do not consider that sleeper value either. My general full-value for ROY candidates available in the draft is $18. To me, that is the happy medium between future potential and current season capability.
In the rotation, everyone talks about Francisco Liriano. I have nothing to add except to say I was queried by a writer friend prior to last season about the potential for a book that followed him through his 2005 season. I thought it would have been interesting, but I never expected Liriano's breakthrough 2005 season either.
Scott Baker is the player I would watch. With Liriano sucking all the air from the room, Baker could go for a fraction of the cost and do as well. His ratios are just as good as Liriano's are, but he won't cost double digits as I expect FL will.
In the bullpen, no one is taking Nathan's job. Jesse Crain will get some hype, but I am leary of a pitcher who dominates in the bullpen while striking out only 25 in 79 2/3 innings. Yikes! he walked more than he struck out. Sell high if you have him! (Think Dan Kolb.)
In the minors, keep an eye on Denard Span. Torii Hunter is expensive, and Span could provide a nice alternative. I wrote about him earlier this off-season right here.
Jason Bartlett, on the other hand, was highly touted entering last season but did not live up to that touting. This season I expect him to do so. I see a 10 HR/15+ SB campaign with a non-harmful AVG (.270 or so). Given his poor 2005, he should come fairly cheaply - no more than $9 or $10 if he is available when multiple team finds themsleves with some draft cash and a need in the middle.
Jason Kubel will be given every chance to win a starting job. He was highly-touted following the 2004 season. Despite missing all of 2005, he has not been forgotten. I would not hesitate to go into the high teens for him if he is healthy, but I also do not consider that sleeper value either. My general full-value for ROY candidates available in the draft is $18. To me, that is the happy medium between future potential and current season capability.
In the rotation, everyone talks about Francisco Liriano. I have nothing to add except to say I was queried by a writer friend prior to last season about the potential for a book that followed him through his 2005 season. I thought it would have been interesting, but I never expected Liriano's breakthrough 2005 season either.
Scott Baker is the player I would watch. With Liriano sucking all the air from the room, Baker could go for a fraction of the cost and do as well. His ratios are just as good as Liriano's are, but he won't cost double digits as I expect FL will.
In the bullpen, no one is taking Nathan's job. Jesse Crain will get some hype, but I am leary of a pitcher who dominates in the bullpen while striking out only 25 in 79 2/3 innings. Yikes! he walked more than he struck out. Sell high if you have him! (Think Dan Kolb.)
In the minors, keep an eye on Denard Span. Torii Hunter is expensive, and Span could provide a nice alternative. I wrote about him earlier this off-season right here.
Monday, January 09, 2006
Cleveland Indians
The Red Sox and Devil Rays were tough to call. The Indians are not so. Every role is defined, and there should be no surprises for playing time.
But, and you knew there had to be a "but", the Indians did sign a minor league free agent from the Dodgers organization, Todd Donovan. The big number is 62. Those are the stolen bases he racked up at AA Jacksonville. To boot, he also hit 8 HR, 16 2B and 10 triples. Grab him for a $1 at the end of the draft or grab him from the pool if he is recalled.
Bob Wickman accepted salary arbitration and will open the season as the Indians closer, but he will be mentioned as a shaky closer by every Roto sight - exactly as he was last season while putting up a career best season. As long as he is reliable, the Indians will not risk putting an inexperienced pitcher in the role as they contend for a play-off spot.
If he is hurt, the Rotopunditariat favorite, Fernando Cabrera, will get all the ink. And deservedly so after combining for 97 Ks in 82 innings between AAA and Cleveland. Normally I tend towards the contrarian opinion of the Roto commentators, on this one, I would join the herd and go to the low double digits to get him on draft day.
Jeremy Sowers is a minor leaguer to watch. A lefty with strikeout ability and good control, the only question is he is not overpowering. I can't help but draw comparisons to Yusi Petit of the Marlins as a minor league pitcher who knows how to strikeout batters without a power pitch. As such, I suspect he knows how to pitch better than the average rookie and, combined with the Indians good defense, should be considered a surprise $1 pitcher or a decent pool pick-up.
But, and you knew there had to be a "but", the Indians did sign a minor league free agent from the Dodgers organization, Todd Donovan. The big number is 62. Those are the stolen bases he racked up at AA Jacksonville. To boot, he also hit 8 HR, 16 2B and 10 triples. Grab him for a $1 at the end of the draft or grab him from the pool if he is recalled.
Bob Wickman accepted salary arbitration and will open the season as the Indians closer, but he will be mentioned as a shaky closer by every Roto sight - exactly as he was last season while putting up a career best season. As long as he is reliable, the Indians will not risk putting an inexperienced pitcher in the role as they contend for a play-off spot.
If he is hurt, the Rotopunditariat favorite, Fernando Cabrera, will get all the ink. And deservedly so after combining for 97 Ks in 82 innings between AAA and Cleveland. Normally I tend towards the contrarian opinion of the Roto commentators, on this one, I would join the herd and go to the low double digits to get him on draft day.
Jeremy Sowers is a minor leaguer to watch. A lefty with strikeout ability and good control, the only question is he is not overpowering. I can't help but draw comparisons to Yusi Petit of the Marlins as a minor league pitcher who knows how to strikeout batters without a power pitch. As such, I suspect he knows how to pitch better than the average rookie and, combined with the Indians good defense, should be considered a surprise $1 pitcher or a decent pool pick-up.
Chicago White Sox
The World champions return a squad that will no longer be unknown.
I see a couple players having good upside surprise in 2006. The first is Tadahito Iguchi. He did well in his inaugural US season with double digit HR and SB with an unharmful AVG (15/15/.278). Now with World Series experience, I expect 2006 to be his best. 20/20 is right there to be taken. Anything less than $20 will be a steal.
Brian Nikola Anderson is the other player I expect to do surprisingly well. In finance, there is a way of determining how well a company is doing by signaling. It says"that insiders have information not available to the market. Moves made by insiders can signal information to outsiders and change the stock price."
Place GM Kenny Williams in the role of an insider, and the one of insider moves as the trade of CFers Aaron Rowand and Chris Young, a propsect that had a better AA season than any Anderson has yet to have, and he (CY) is younger!
What you conclude is B. Nikola Anderson is going to do well. I see him matching Rowand's 2005 HR production (13) with slightly fewer RBI and the same AVG.
Bobby Jenks broke through his past to end the season as the closer. I would not be surprised to see a relapse into his previous control and off-field problems. If this occurs, I expect Ozzie Guillen to mess around with the closer role - just as he did last season when Dustan Hermanson was successfully closing and lost the job - just as Mr. Zero successfully closed in 2004 only to be yanked out the role for Hermanson - just as Damaso Marte was messed around with all season.
On the farm, keep an eye on Jerry Owens. He was old for AA (24) but his Moneyball stats (.393 OBP) shame Scott Podsednick and his speed will not make Podsednick take on any airs (38 in AA and, most importantly, 4 in n 18 AB call-up in September.) I would not be surpised to see Podsednick lose quite a few ABs to Owens. If he makes the team, grab him. A poor man's Joey Gaithwright on draft day!
I see a couple players having good upside surprise in 2006. The first is Tadahito Iguchi. He did well in his inaugural US season with double digit HR and SB with an unharmful AVG (15/15/.278). Now with World Series experience, I expect 2006 to be his best. 20/20 is right there to be taken. Anything less than $20 will be a steal.
Brian Nikola Anderson is the other player I expect to do surprisingly well. In finance, there is a way of determining how well a company is doing by signaling. It says"that insiders have information not available to the market. Moves made by insiders can signal information to outsiders and change the stock price."
Place GM Kenny Williams in the role of an insider, and the one of insider moves as the trade of CFers Aaron Rowand and Chris Young, a propsect that had a better AA season than any Anderson has yet to have, and he (CY) is younger!
What you conclude is B. Nikola Anderson is going to do well. I see him matching Rowand's 2005 HR production (13) with slightly fewer RBI and the same AVG.
Bobby Jenks broke through his past to end the season as the closer. I would not be surprised to see a relapse into his previous control and off-field problems. If this occurs, I expect Ozzie Guillen to mess around with the closer role - just as he did last season when Dustan Hermanson was successfully closing and lost the job - just as Mr. Zero successfully closed in 2004 only to be yanked out the role for Hermanson - just as Damaso Marte was messed around with all season.
On the farm, keep an eye on Jerry Owens. He was old for AA (24) but his Moneyball stats (.393 OBP) shame Scott Podsednick and his speed will not make Podsednick take on any airs (38 in AA and, most importantly, 4 in n 18 AB call-up in September.) I would not be surpised to see Podsednick lose quite a few ABs to Owens. If he makes the team, grab him. A poor man's Joey Gaithwright on draft day!
NY Yankees Top 10 Prospects
Baseball America has posted their top 10 Yankee prospects entering the 2006 season, and I am very, very excited.
Amongst the top 8, Eric Duncan is the youngest, and he will spend his first AAA season as a 21-year-old. With only one Dominican, there should not be too many age surprises that would seriously deteriorate the quality of the list.
Given the Yankees do not need any immediate help on the big league club, I can see the orgnaization boasting one of the best systems in 2007/2008.
This will be the first season that I may spend minor league picks on multiple Yankee propsects (Hughes, Duncan, Tabata and Jackson look very good.)
Amongst the top 8, Eric Duncan is the youngest, and he will spend his first AAA season as a 21-year-old. With only one Dominican, there should not be too many age surprises that would seriously deteriorate the quality of the list.
Given the Yankees do not need any immediate help on the big league club, I can see the orgnaization boasting one of the best systems in 2007/2008.
This will be the first season that I may spend minor league picks on multiple Yankee propsects (Hughes, Duncan, Tabata and Jackson look very good.)
Sunday, January 08, 2006
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
If you think the gaping holes at SS and CF in Boston make Roto-evaluation tricky, the stay away from Tampa Bay. With RF Aubrey Huff, SS Julio Lugo and CL Danys Baez in trade rumors of one kind or another every single day, important Roto decisons are delayed.
Lugo stole 34 bases last season. That would make him a solid $20+ player. If he is dealt, then BJ Upton gets a shot and will be amongst the most hyped players in Spring Training. This would lead his draft price into the $20s - way over-priced in my book.
Aubrey Huff is a "veteran sleeper". If he is traded, a spot opens for Joey Gathwright to hit everyday, and, if that ever happens, he will be a 50+ SB player which makes him a $30+ Roto player. If Huff isn't traded, Gaithwright will still command a lot of draft day attention and likely go in the mid-teens - too high for 2006 but a decent play on 2007.
Danys Baez is the closer, and a good one in 2005. If he isn't dealt prior to draft day, then he will be in trade rumors the minute a play-off contending team's closer blows his first save, This will damp down his draft day price, but also his in-season Roto trade value. Who is going to pay the price to get a closer via trade when he could be dealt to the NL?
Picking through the TB bullpen is vital and will result in a great bargain for the team that gets lucky enough to land the successor to Baez. The top contenders are Chad Orvella, Lance Carter and Jesus Colome. Of them, the only one not to either have previously closed (Carter) or been hyped as the future closer for this entire century (Colome) is Orvella, who took on the future closer tag last year. I do not like any of them, but would think Carter would get the first shot because he has done it before.
That is an admittedly weak reason, but I do not know what is going on in Tampa. I had thought prior GM Chuck Lamar was the problem, but apparently, he was not. The current management appears to be just as idiotic - assuming you believe they should trade any of their impending 2006 free agents.
Maybe they should just keep them? Hmmmmmmm, that is an intersting shift in thinking.
Lugo stole 34 bases last season. That would make him a solid $20+ player. If he is dealt, then BJ Upton gets a shot and will be amongst the most hyped players in Spring Training. This would lead his draft price into the $20s - way over-priced in my book.
Aubrey Huff is a "veteran sleeper". If he is traded, a spot opens for Joey Gathwright to hit everyday, and, if that ever happens, he will be a 50+ SB player which makes him a $30+ Roto player. If Huff isn't traded, Gaithwright will still command a lot of draft day attention and likely go in the mid-teens - too high for 2006 but a decent play on 2007.
Danys Baez is the closer, and a good one in 2005. If he isn't dealt prior to draft day, then he will be in trade rumors the minute a play-off contending team's closer blows his first save, This will damp down his draft day price, but also his in-season Roto trade value. Who is going to pay the price to get a closer via trade when he could be dealt to the NL?
Picking through the TB bullpen is vital and will result in a great bargain for the team that gets lucky enough to land the successor to Baez. The top contenders are Chad Orvella, Lance Carter and Jesus Colome. Of them, the only one not to either have previously closed (Carter) or been hyped as the future closer for this entire century (Colome) is Orvella, who took on the future closer tag last year. I do not like any of them, but would think Carter would get the first shot because he has done it before.
That is an admittedly weak reason, but I do not know what is going on in Tampa. I had thought prior GM Chuck Lamar was the problem, but apparently, he was not. The current management appears to be just as idiotic - assuming you believe they should trade any of their impending 2006 free agents.
Maybe they should just keep them? Hmmmmmmm, that is an intersting shift in thinking.
Saturday, January 07, 2006
NL ROY
On his eponymous website, John Sickels posted a question about the 2006 NL Rookie-of-the-Year.
The choices are Jeremy Heremida, Prince Fielder, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Cain and Somebody Else. The leader amongst his readers is Hermida at 32% followed by Prince Fielder at 21%. Cain and Zimmerman garner 13% each and Somebody Else gets 19%.
My rationale was based on a combination of which ones I think will have the best seasons and how the their teams will do. I expect Cain's Giants to be the best and Hermida's Marlins to be the worst. Fielder's Brewers will finish second and Zimmerman's Nationals third.
I also believe Fielder will have the worst AVG (.250ish). This will seriously handicap his chances of winning, and I belive Zimmerman's numbers were be hampered by RFK Stadium (HR and AVG).
Jeremy Hermida will have the best 4X4 numbers and garner a lot of attention.
Matt Cain will have very good stats for a rookie pitcher (High 3s ERa with 150+ strikeouts) and be on a play-off contending team.
As such, I chose Matt Cain despite preferring Hermida for my Roto team.
The choices are Jeremy Heremida, Prince Fielder, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Cain and Somebody Else. The leader amongst his readers is Hermida at 32% followed by Prince Fielder at 21%. Cain and Zimmerman garner 13% each and Somebody Else gets 19%.
My rationale was based on a combination of which ones I think will have the best seasons and how the their teams will do. I expect Cain's Giants to be the best and Hermida's Marlins to be the worst. Fielder's Brewers will finish second and Zimmerman's Nationals third.
I also believe Fielder will have the worst AVG (.250ish). This will seriously handicap his chances of winning, and I belive Zimmerman's numbers were be hampered by RFK Stadium (HR and AVG).
Jeremy Hermida will have the best 4X4 numbers and garner a lot of attention.
Matt Cain will have very good stats for a rookie pitcher (High 3s ERa with 150+ strikeouts) and be on a play-off contending team.
As such, I chose Matt Cain despite preferring Hermida for my Roto team.
Baltimore Orioles
An off-season in which the team gives all apearances of disarray could be a good thing come draft day. Many of their productive players will go for less than they should - Miguel Tejada excepted.
Jay Gibbons pops out. He was surprisingly good last season - 26/79/.277. Yes, he hit .277 which is a positive for AVG. A three category hitter could be expected to go for $25+ in a typical league. I do not see that happening as long as he is an Oriole (and possibiliy ever!)
The first impressions Gibbons made was a player with power and a poor AVG as demonstraed in his first two seasons (15/36/.236 in his rookie year and 28/69/.247.) He broke out in 2003 but regressed in an injury-plagued 2004, cementing the initial impressions.
But he returned to his 2003 AVG in 2005 leading me to believe he has established a new level of performance. (Recall he was a Rule 5 player and learned on the job his first couple seasons.)
I expect him to be a "veteran sleeper" and a solid #2 OF or co-#1 with a similar player. (Def of veteran sleeper: an everyday player who produces consistently but never makes an All-Star team. Value $17-$24. Or previously defined here for Preston Wilson - a player who goes for $15-$24 because he is no longer surrounded by hype but still produces.)
If the O's obtain Cory Patterson, I do not expect him to be a sleeper as his SB totals will cause any AL league to respond Pavlovianally - immediately bid him to the high $20s and that is no bargain for 4X4 favorite CPat. That said, I personally like him and wish the Yanks had tried him in CF. One thing his detractors (everyone but me) fail to note is this year will be his 27 one and that means highest likelihood of a career year!
On the pitching side, I hold out hope that Erik Bedard's poor return from injury knocks him far enough down draft lists that he can be had for $7-$13. If so, then I can see him having a very good risk/reward profile. This will be wholely dependent on the maintenance of his improved walk rate. Even if he does not, he will maintain his trade value based solely upon the gushing of scouts.
In the bullpen, Chris Ray is already everyone's "sleeper" to close, but the one to watch is 2005 nightmare, Jorge Julio. His numbers were horrific, but the O's did bring in Leo Mazzone and he could help Julio return to his previous level of production. If that is the case, I expect Julio to open the season as the closer and to hold it until he is either traded or the 2006 season ends.
Nick Markakis is the prospect to watch and grab either in your minor league draft or immediately after he is recalled. His walk rates are excellent and his combo of power and speed make me believe he will have a HR/SB season like Alexis Rios' 2005 campaign. He may not be a sleeper come Opening Day, but his future is bright enough to merit mention right now.
Jay Gibbons pops out. He was surprisingly good last season - 26/79/.277. Yes, he hit .277 which is a positive for AVG. A three category hitter could be expected to go for $25+ in a typical league. I do not see that happening as long as he is an Oriole (and possibiliy ever!)
The first impressions Gibbons made was a player with power and a poor AVG as demonstraed in his first two seasons (15/36/.236 in his rookie year and 28/69/.247.) He broke out in 2003 but regressed in an injury-plagued 2004, cementing the initial impressions.
But he returned to his 2003 AVG in 2005 leading me to believe he has established a new level of performance. (Recall he was a Rule 5 player and learned on the job his first couple seasons.)
I expect him to be a "veteran sleeper" and a solid #2 OF or co-#1 with a similar player. (Def of veteran sleeper: an everyday player who produces consistently but never makes an All-Star team. Value $17-$24. Or previously defined here for Preston Wilson - a player who goes for $15-$24 because he is no longer surrounded by hype but still produces.)
If the O's obtain Cory Patterson, I do not expect him to be a sleeper as his SB totals will cause any AL league to respond Pavlovianally - immediately bid him to the high $20s and that is no bargain for 4X4 favorite CPat. That said, I personally like him and wish the Yanks had tried him in CF. One thing his detractors (everyone but me) fail to note is this year will be his 27 one and that means highest likelihood of a career year!
On the pitching side, I hold out hope that Erik Bedard's poor return from injury knocks him far enough down draft lists that he can be had for $7-$13. If so, then I can see him having a very good risk/reward profile. This will be wholely dependent on the maintenance of his improved walk rate. Even if he does not, he will maintain his trade value based solely upon the gushing of scouts.
In the bullpen, Chris Ray is already everyone's "sleeper" to close, but the one to watch is 2005 nightmare, Jorge Julio. His numbers were horrific, but the O's did bring in Leo Mazzone and he could help Julio return to his previous level of production. If that is the case, I expect Julio to open the season as the closer and to hold it until he is either traded or the 2006 season ends.
Nick Markakis is the prospect to watch and grab either in your minor league draft or immediately after he is recalled. His walk rates are excellent and his combo of power and speed make me believe he will have a HR/SB season like Alexis Rios' 2005 campaign. He may not be a sleeper come Opening Day, but his future is bright enough to merit mention right now.
Friday, January 06, 2006
Toronto Blue Jays
The most remarkable thing about the Jays as currently constituted is the excess of corner/DH types. Glaus, Overbay and Hillenbrand are the three that I expect will get most of the ABs. Fortunately for both Hinske and Koskie, they bat from the left side of the plate and could see ABs against right-handers.
With the trade of Orlando Hudson, Aaron Hill is the regular 2B entering the season. I expect him to match OHud's 4X4 production (10/60/5/.270). As a starting middle infielder, that puts his draft day salary in the $9-$17 range. Obviously, he slots at the lower end, but my experience has demonstrated that any available starter up the middle could go in the higher teens.
A player who could be poised to breakout this season is Alexis Rios. The past two seasons, he has stolen 15 and 14 bases. There is no reason to expect that to change in 2006. He could steal 20 with very slight improvement. (A success rate somewhere between his 2004 (86%) and his 2005 (61%) in the same number of 2005 attempts (23) would put him at 17.)
His 10 HR last season nearly matched his minor league high of 11. If he improves on 2005, he could see 15, and 15 HR and 20 SB is a very good Roto player ($17-25).
The closer role is set for the next few seasons with the signing of BJ Ryan. If he gets hurt, I'd expect a return the JP's hodgepodge closing mix with Speier and Frasor the leading candidates.
Josh Towers was surprisingly good last season. After several seasons of disappointing Roto results, he kept everything together to post an ERA of 3.71 and a WHIP of 1.27 in 200+ innings. His minor league K/BB ratio always kept him on the radar and, in 2003, his 1.15 WHIP with the O's teased Roto players into listing him as a sleeper for 2004. Unfortunately, he was Roto death then (5.11/1.50).
This bad taste colored his 2005 season. Some of that will linger into 2006 and will make Towers an undervalued pitcher on draft day.
With the trade of Orlando Hudson, Aaron Hill is the regular 2B entering the season. I expect him to match OHud's 4X4 production (10/60/5/.270). As a starting middle infielder, that puts his draft day salary in the $9-$17 range. Obviously, he slots at the lower end, but my experience has demonstrated that any available starter up the middle could go in the higher teens.
A player who could be poised to breakout this season is Alexis Rios. The past two seasons, he has stolen 15 and 14 bases. There is no reason to expect that to change in 2006. He could steal 20 with very slight improvement. (A success rate somewhere between his 2004 (86%) and his 2005 (61%) in the same number of 2005 attempts (23) would put him at 17.)
His 10 HR last season nearly matched his minor league high of 11. If he improves on 2005, he could see 15, and 15 HR and 20 SB is a very good Roto player ($17-25).
The closer role is set for the next few seasons with the signing of BJ Ryan. If he gets hurt, I'd expect a return the JP's hodgepodge closing mix with Speier and Frasor the leading candidates.
Josh Towers was surprisingly good last season. After several seasons of disappointing Roto results, he kept everything together to post an ERA of 3.71 and a WHIP of 1.27 in 200+ innings. His minor league K/BB ratio always kept him on the radar and, in 2003, his 1.15 WHIP with the O's teased Roto players into listing him as a sleeper for 2004. Unfortunately, he was Roto death then (5.11/1.50).
This bad taste colored his 2005 season. Some of that will linger into 2006 and will make Towers an undervalued pitcher on draft day.
Thursday, January 05, 2006
Jay Payton
He did well last year after griping his way out of Boston. I'd expect him to do the same this season given 400 ABs. (Produce not gripe.)
What worries me is whether Oakland will keep him all year with such a poor OBP. I know the A's have shifted towards defense but could the organization really suffer through a .310 OBP without exploring trade options with other teams who like his 4X4 numbers better?
Couldn't a good defensive OF with better OBP and a cheaper salary be found?
What worries me is whether Oakland will keep him all year with such a poor OBP. I know the A's have shifted towards defense but could the organization really suffer through a .310 OBP without exploring trade options with other teams who like his 4X4 numbers better?
Couldn't a good defensive OF with better OBP and a cheaper salary be found?
Boston Red Sox
This thumbnail sketch is a little more difficult as the team has glaring holes at SS and CF. 1B is also very much up in the air, but the Sawx currently have Kevin Youkilis, the Moneyball-epitathed God of Walks.
The Sawx claim he will develop 20 HR power. Maybe. He will be 27 on Opening Day and has never hit more than 10 HRs in any season. However, if his last two seasons were pro-rated over 600 ABs, his totals would have put him in the 20 HR range. Plus, OBP has been decent, admittedly in very few ABs.
One caveat, though, is that tiny number of ABs garnered as a Red Sock. He had 208 ABs in 2004 and only 78 last seson! I think he is at risk for over-exposure, and the question remains whether the Sawx will weather the adjustment period necessary for Youkilis to breakthrough, if he can at all.
I can see the team struggling with a powerless 1B and making a move to remedy that. Obviously, this makes Youkilis a risky Roto proposition if he goes for a $10+ in a draft.
Right now, his back-up is the Rob Neyer favorite, Roberto Petagine. At 35, there isn't much long-term Roto value, but he could be a better $1 gamble than Youkilis for 8+ times that amount. He has been an OBP machine everywhere, and I suspect he would contunie to do so in whatever ABs the Sawx give him. The only thing going against him is Youkilis is 8 years younger and teams are prone to love projectability over current ability.
If Youkilis struggles with regular ABs, then Petagine will get a full-time chance. And if the Sawx search for a trade alternative takes a couple weeks and Roberto is hot, he could be a great $1 corner on a successful 2006 Roto squad.
Jon Papelbon looks like he is going to be a highly-hyped SP going into 2006. He should be a good risk for a handful of dollars. His strikeouts were good but he walked way too many batters in his 34 inning debut last season. Putting 4.50 men on base via walk every 9 innings has all the making of disaster. However, his walk rates were very good in the minors.
My guesstimate would be a season somewhere between Scott Kazmir's 2004 and 2005 seasons - an ERA in the mid-4s and a WHIP over 1.40. Not great, but encouraging. However, a 1.40+ WHIP in 175 innings is a killer on a team's WHIP. I would target him if I were a bailing team.
Craig Hansen has generated a lot of futrue-closer hype and deservedly so, but I do not see him getting a chance until late in the year - at best. Foulke will be given the opportunity to reclaim the roll he has excelled in with Mike Timlin backing-up.
A sleeper minor leaguer is Brandon Moss. His star has faded some after a mediocre AA season, but he was only 21. His opportunity to contribute late heavily depends on what the Sawx do with their CF opening. The longer the Opening Day CF is signed, the lesser the chance of Moss getting any shot in 2006. If he opens 2006 ripping the cover off the ball in AAA, then only an OF injury keeps him from a cup of coffee.
While Dustin Pedroia gets most of the rookie hype this spring and Jacoby Ellsbury occupies most of the future-CF talk do not forget Moss.
The Sawx claim he will develop 20 HR power. Maybe. He will be 27 on Opening Day and has never hit more than 10 HRs in any season. However, if his last two seasons were pro-rated over 600 ABs, his totals would have put him in the 20 HR range. Plus, OBP has been decent, admittedly in very few ABs.
One caveat, though, is that tiny number of ABs garnered as a Red Sock. He had 208 ABs in 2004 and only 78 last seson! I think he is at risk for over-exposure, and the question remains whether the Sawx will weather the adjustment period necessary for Youkilis to breakthrough, if he can at all.
I can see the team struggling with a powerless 1B and making a move to remedy that. Obviously, this makes Youkilis a risky Roto proposition if he goes for a $10+ in a draft.
Right now, his back-up is the Rob Neyer favorite, Roberto Petagine. At 35, there isn't much long-term Roto value, but he could be a better $1 gamble than Youkilis for 8+ times that amount. He has been an OBP machine everywhere, and I suspect he would contunie to do so in whatever ABs the Sawx give him. The only thing going against him is Youkilis is 8 years younger and teams are prone to love projectability over current ability.
If Youkilis struggles with regular ABs, then Petagine will get a full-time chance. And if the Sawx search for a trade alternative takes a couple weeks and Roberto is hot, he could be a great $1 corner on a successful 2006 Roto squad.
Jon Papelbon looks like he is going to be a highly-hyped SP going into 2006. He should be a good risk for a handful of dollars. His strikeouts were good but he walked way too many batters in his 34 inning debut last season. Putting 4.50 men on base via walk every 9 innings has all the making of disaster. However, his walk rates were very good in the minors.
My guesstimate would be a season somewhere between Scott Kazmir's 2004 and 2005 seasons - an ERA in the mid-4s and a WHIP over 1.40. Not great, but encouraging. However, a 1.40+ WHIP in 175 innings is a killer on a team's WHIP. I would target him if I were a bailing team.
Craig Hansen has generated a lot of futrue-closer hype and deservedly so, but I do not see him getting a chance until late in the year - at best. Foulke will be given the opportunity to reclaim the roll he has excelled in with Mike Timlin backing-up.
A sleeper minor leaguer is Brandon Moss. His star has faded some after a mediocre AA season, but he was only 21. His opportunity to contribute late heavily depends on what the Sawx do with their CF opening. The longer the Opening Day CF is signed, the lesser the chance of Moss getting any shot in 2006. If he opens 2006 ripping the cover off the ball in AAA, then only an OF injury keeps him from a cup of coffee.
While Dustin Pedroia gets most of the rookie hype this spring and Jacoby Ellsbury occupies most of the future-CF talk do not forget Moss.
Wednesday, January 04, 2006
New York Yankees
Today begins my thumbnail sketching of each team and what I see as good risks for 2006. Occasionally, I will cast an eye towards 2007 and beyond and will generally stay away from commenting on obvious Roto studs like ARod.
Where I will focus is possible breakout candidates, closer prospects and players who should be valuable members of a 14 hitters / 9 pitchers Roto squad.
What that means is a player who makes the bottom half of your team stronger as all Roto players can build half a team based solely on past performance.
On offense, I do not see any breakout candidates for 2006. Robinson Cano broke out last season hitting .297 with 14 HR. I expect no one to be taken by surprise this season. Nor do I expect him in too many draft pools as his pool salary from last season likely guarantees he will be protected through the length of his contract and possibly re-upped after that.
What is notable is his 14 HR as a Yankee matched his professional high and his 62 RBI nearly did so (14/66 in Single A Greensboro in 2002.) If you combine his AAA numbers, he set highs in each (18/86).
That is the surprising fact about Cano and is the reason why I expect him to maintain whatever value he had in 2005 with the possibility of slight improvement in 2006. He should hit a couple more HRs, but I do not see him driving in too many more runs as he will hit near the bottom of the order with noted OBP-men like Jason Giambi and Jorge Posada in front of him.
If Cano were available in a draft, I would not hesitate to pay in the high teens for him.
Andy Phillips is nominally the back-up at 1B. Being behind Giambi would normally lead me to conclude he will play frequently as Giambi's glove is lacking, but I recall Giambi played almost everyday at 1B last season as he ripped through the second half.
Also, given Torre's man-love for Bernie and Bern's inability to field a position, Bernie will get most of the DH ABs which will contribute to Giambi being at 1B everyday. This leaves Phillips as a Homer Bush-esque Yankee but with no speed. (In 1998, Bush spent the season with the Yanks and garnered 76 plate appearances.)
What could happen though, is the Yanks cut Phillips lose or trade him mid-season and bring up Eric Duncan, a propsect who looks like he may actually play for the Yankees some day as an inexpensive player. He is justed turned 21 in December, won the AFL MVP and will be in AAA Columbus to start the 2006 season.
All it would take is an injury, most obviously to Bernie to free up DH, and a good start in AAA, and he will be up and in-line to make a Cano-like contribution. Watch him.
Where I will focus is possible breakout candidates, closer prospects and players who should be valuable members of a 14 hitters / 9 pitchers Roto squad.
What that means is a player who makes the bottom half of your team stronger as all Roto players can build half a team based solely on past performance.
On offense, I do not see any breakout candidates for 2006. Robinson Cano broke out last season hitting .297 with 14 HR. I expect no one to be taken by surprise this season. Nor do I expect him in too many draft pools as his pool salary from last season likely guarantees he will be protected through the length of his contract and possibly re-upped after that.
What is notable is his 14 HR as a Yankee matched his professional high and his 62 RBI nearly did so (14/66 in Single A Greensboro in 2002.) If you combine his AAA numbers, he set highs in each (18/86).
That is the surprising fact about Cano and is the reason why I expect him to maintain whatever value he had in 2005 with the possibility of slight improvement in 2006. He should hit a couple more HRs, but I do not see him driving in too many more runs as he will hit near the bottom of the order with noted OBP-men like Jason Giambi and Jorge Posada in front of him.
If Cano were available in a draft, I would not hesitate to pay in the high teens for him.
Andy Phillips is nominally the back-up at 1B. Being behind Giambi would normally lead me to conclude he will play frequently as Giambi's glove is lacking, but I recall Giambi played almost everyday at 1B last season as he ripped through the second half.
Also, given Torre's man-love for Bernie and Bern's inability to field a position, Bernie will get most of the DH ABs which will contribute to Giambi being at 1B everyday. This leaves Phillips as a Homer Bush-esque Yankee but with no speed. (In 1998, Bush spent the season with the Yanks and garnered 76 plate appearances.)
What could happen though, is the Yanks cut Phillips lose or trade him mid-season and bring up Eric Duncan, a propsect who looks like he may actually play for the Yankees some day as an inexpensive player. He is justed turned 21 in December, won the AFL MVP and will be in AAA Columbus to start the 2006 season.
All it would take is an injury, most obviously to Bernie to free up DH, and a good start in AAA, and he will be up and in-line to make a Cano-like contribution. Watch him.
Tuesday, January 03, 2006
Mayonaisse has zero carbs!
Dave Pinto has a post stating Preston Wilson is no better than Wily Tavares based on thier 2005 win shares total.
My initial thought was how did a player whose main attribute is getting on-base via hits that don't travel 90' better than a 7-year veteran who has consistently performed at an All-Star level (assuming his team stinks and hosts the game)?
As I am as statistically knowledgable as anyone (more so as I have had several courses in statistics on the college level - undergrad and graduate,) I first decided to examine what goes into a "win share".
Talk about assumptions! There are enough there to make so many asses that the word will be spelled "ass" because the world would run out of people before all the assumptions were exhausted!
As a general rule-of-thumb, win shares allows for quick comparison between two players. (Although I imagine the quickness in calculating it only arrived with the Excel spreadsheet.) It is when it is used as an absolute that its usefulness becomes strained.
The first assumption is assigning a relative value to the contribution of hitting and pitching/defense to a win. My nihilistic side told me I need not go any further before concluding that win shares is a tool no more valuable than any of the other time-tested statistics that make up your typical 4X4 Roto league.
Advanced quantitification seems to be a sure fire way into a front office, but it does not negate Occum's razor or parsimony. It may make one more impressive in a job interview or in a discussion with other Roto players who are not versed in statistical calculations, but unless it tells me something above and beyond what other simpler percentages and ratios do, then count me unimpressed.
No matter what you say a singles hitter is not better than a HR hitter just as you cannot convince me that having zero-carbs makes mayonaisse a health food!
My initial thought was how did a player whose main attribute is getting on-base via hits that don't travel 90' better than a 7-year veteran who has consistently performed at an All-Star level (assuming his team stinks and hosts the game)?
As I am as statistically knowledgable as anyone (more so as I have had several courses in statistics on the college level - undergrad and graduate,) I first decided to examine what goes into a "win share".
Talk about assumptions! There are enough there to make so many asses that the word will be spelled "ass" because the world would run out of people before all the assumptions were exhausted!
As a general rule-of-thumb, win shares allows for quick comparison between two players. (Although I imagine the quickness in calculating it only arrived with the Excel spreadsheet.) It is when it is used as an absolute that its usefulness becomes strained.
The first assumption is assigning a relative value to the contribution of hitting and pitching/defense to a win. My nihilistic side told me I need not go any further before concluding that win shares is a tool no more valuable than any of the other time-tested statistics that make up your typical 4X4 Roto league.
Advanced quantitification seems to be a sure fire way into a front office, but it does not negate Occum's razor or parsimony. It may make one more impressive in a job interview or in a discussion with other Roto players who are not versed in statistical calculations, but unless it tells me something above and beyond what other simpler percentages and ratios do, then count me unimpressed.
No matter what you say a singles hitter is not better than a HR hitter just as you cannot convince me that having zero-carbs makes mayonaisse a health food!
Jeremy Burnitz
Baltimore couldn't restrain their enthusiasm and had to leak they were on the brink of signing Jeremy Burnitz. And now they have lost him to the Pirates!
That will teach the Pirates a lesson in listening to rumors!
At least Burnitz should hit some HRs. Jason Bay must have been thrilled to hear he would be protected by someone with double digit power!
That will teach the Pirates a lesson in listening to rumors!
At least Burnitz should hit some HRs. Jason Bay must have been thrilled to hear he would be protected by someone with double digit power!
Monday, January 02, 2006
Jeremy Bonderman
Three off-seasons ago, I targeted three players to take in my minor league draft - Victor Martinez, Jeremy Bonderman and Rich Harden. As I had the top 2 picks and had settled on VMart #1, the question was who to take between Harden and Bonderman.
The Tigers were good to me as they kept Bonderman up with the big boys, and I ended up with Vmart and Harden #s 1 and 2.
After three seasons, VMart and Harden have clearly been better than Bonderman. The question is whether or not Bonderman will breakthrough this year with the type of Roto season that will make him an integral part of a winning team i.e. $25 value for half the price.
He just turned 23 at the end of October. This works in his favor as the perception exists that he has been around for a while and is therefore older than he really is. He has also been hyped for three seasons, and there is likely to exist some fatigue with the hype. This will heavily influence his draft day salary and keep it in the very low double digits/high single digits.
Statistically, there is support for improved performance. His ERA has improved each year. This also bodes well in spite of a strike out rate bouncing around. At his age, I will give the benefit of the doubt and claim he has learned to pitch to contact versus trying to overpower every hitter (more hits and fewer walks support this.)
Also in his favor is the signing of Kenny Rogers, who will be the #1 starter. The pressure to be the ace will abate and could allow Bondy to take the next step.
While I do not expect Bonderman to reach the level Rich Harden has, I would not be surprised if he makes a VMart for Bonderman trade a possibility some time in 2006. And that is defintely a risk I would be willing to take.
The Tigers were good to me as they kept Bonderman up with the big boys, and I ended up with Vmart and Harden #s 1 and 2.
After three seasons, VMart and Harden have clearly been better than Bonderman. The question is whether or not Bonderman will breakthrough this year with the type of Roto season that will make him an integral part of a winning team i.e. $25 value for half the price.
He just turned 23 at the end of October. This works in his favor as the perception exists that he has been around for a while and is therefore older than he really is. He has also been hyped for three seasons, and there is likely to exist some fatigue with the hype. This will heavily influence his draft day salary and keep it in the very low double digits/high single digits.
Statistically, there is support for improved performance. His ERA has improved each year. This also bodes well in spite of a strike out rate bouncing around. At his age, I will give the benefit of the doubt and claim he has learned to pitch to contact versus trying to overpower every hitter (more hits and fewer walks support this.)
Also in his favor is the signing of Kenny Rogers, who will be the #1 starter. The pressure to be the ace will abate and could allow Bondy to take the next step.
While I do not expect Bonderman to reach the level Rich Harden has, I would not be surprised if he makes a VMart for Bonderman trade a possibility some time in 2006. And that is defintely a risk I would be willing to take.
Sunday, January 01, 2006
Wes Helms
What better way to kick the new year than with a post about Wes Helms.
He just signed with the Florida Marlins.
The questions about him are three-fold. 1st, can he still play? The Brewers gave him a two-year, $5 million contract after his breakout 2003 season. Clearly, they thought he'd remain at that level.
Two seasons later, the Brewers let him become a free agent with no effort made to bring him back. This decision was likely made very early in 2005 as Ned Yost gave him little time in the field and used him almost exclusively as a pinch hitter. However, Helms did very well in that role, which leads me to believe Helms can still play.
The second question is whether or not he will get enough ABs to be a valuable Roto player. My intuition says he will because there just aren't enough players as accomplished as he is on the Marlins roster. The only one to hit more than his 2003 HR total of 23 is Miguel Cabrera. My guess is I could have stated "more career HRs than his 2003 HR total" but why give a more complex explanation when a simpler one will do?
Thirdly, where would he get the ABs? 3B! The major complication here is the Marlins decided to move Cabrera to third last season. However, I wonder whether the fire sale changed that scenario. As of now, Jeremy Hermida is the starting CF, but there is no one in either left or right if Cabrera plays 3B. Even if Cabrera remains in RF, the Fish would still be lacking a LF.
Because of this, I suspsect Helms will play 3B and Cabrera will remain in RF. However, just as Helms, Borowski and Reese saw the chance to recover their reputations in South Florida, I would not be surprised to see an OF make the same decision. But for this to change my scenario, two washed-up OFs must sign there. I do not see that right now.
Wes Helms will get 400 ABs and will return to a respectable Roto level - 15 HR, 50 RBI and an AVG in the .260 range.
He just signed with the Florida Marlins.
The questions about him are three-fold. 1st, can he still play? The Brewers gave him a two-year, $5 million contract after his breakout 2003 season. Clearly, they thought he'd remain at that level.
Two seasons later, the Brewers let him become a free agent with no effort made to bring him back. This decision was likely made very early in 2005 as Ned Yost gave him little time in the field and used him almost exclusively as a pinch hitter. However, Helms did very well in that role, which leads me to believe Helms can still play.
The second question is whether or not he will get enough ABs to be a valuable Roto player. My intuition says he will because there just aren't enough players as accomplished as he is on the Marlins roster. The only one to hit more than his 2003 HR total of 23 is Miguel Cabrera. My guess is I could have stated "more career HRs than his 2003 HR total" but why give a more complex explanation when a simpler one will do?
Thirdly, where would he get the ABs? 3B! The major complication here is the Marlins decided to move Cabrera to third last season. However, I wonder whether the fire sale changed that scenario. As of now, Jeremy Hermida is the starting CF, but there is no one in either left or right if Cabrera plays 3B. Even if Cabrera remains in RF, the Fish would still be lacking a LF.
Because of this, I suspsect Helms will play 3B and Cabrera will remain in RF. However, just as Helms, Borowski and Reese saw the chance to recover their reputations in South Florida, I would not be surprised to see an OF make the same decision. But for this to change my scenario, two washed-up OFs must sign there. I do not see that right now.
Wes Helms will get 400 ABs and will return to a respectable Roto level - 15 HR, 50 RBI and an AVG in the .260 range.
Saturday, December 31, 2005
2006 NL Trend
Last season saw the emergence of the new crop of pitching studs. This season, the new crop of catching studs will become apparent.
In Atlanta, Brian McCann takes over full-time after making the jump from AA to the majors - at 21-years-old. In another situation that makes the NL East feel the Braves have the blessings of a higher power, one of the top Braves prospects is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a catcher with power and plate discipline
Forida's firesale has provided Josh Willingham the opportunity to play significant innings behind the plate (definition: making enough appearances to qualify at catcher for the 2007 season.) The team also signed Miguel Olivo who should finally get the chance to show that speed he displayed, and the reason Roto owners have been waiting added him to their team, since his AA season in 2002 when he stole 29. Remember, despite this unfulfilled expectation, he has stolen 6, 7, and 7 bases the past three seasons. Matching that would make him more valuable than a $1 end-of-draft filler.
Speaking of that, the Mets' Ramon Castro should be an excellent 2nd catcher. His exposure will remain similar to last season where he out-performed the Mets latest catching edition, Paul LoDuca:
Castro: 29 years-old 209 ABs 8 HR 41 RBI .244 AVG .321 OBP .435 SLG
LoDuca: 34 years-old 445 ABS 6 HR 57 RBI .283 AVG .334 OBP .380 SLG
St. Louis saw 23-year-old Yadier Molina adequately replaced the offensive production of the pre-SF Matt Matheny.
Pitsburgh has Humberto Cota who matched the aforementioned @005 goodie, Damian Miller, in his first extended playing time. Ryan Doumit was also impressive in his first call-up last season.
The Dodgers Dioner Navarro did well last season as a 22-year-old in his (this should be familiar) first extended playing time as a major leaguer. And right behind him is the player Billy Beane had hoped Jeremy Brown would have been, Russ Martin (.311 AVG, .430 OBP in 409 official ABs).
Colorado dealt a Rule 5 pick for Yorvit Torrealba. He seems to have been bouncing around forever, but he is only 27 years old. Colorado should make him a decent #1 catcher come draft day. Because of this, he is likely to be the most over-valued, too. Think JD Closser, who may improve with more carefully managed ABs.
What this means is there is reason to enter next year's draft needing to draft a catcher or two because there should be equivalent production in the pool as that being protected (Jason LaRue, Paul Loduca, Mike Lieberthal, Damian Miller, Michael Barrett, Brian Schneider). It also means one of these young receivers will be cheap and result in good bail bait later in the season.
Javier Valentin did not make this list because he is already 30-years-old, but I like him as a very good 2nd catcher, and if he repeats his 2005 numbers, a #1. However, he is stuck behind Jason LaRue and cannot be reasonably be expected to get many more ABs than he did last year - severally limiting his upside potential.
In Atlanta, Brian McCann takes over full-time after making the jump from AA to the majors - at 21-years-old. In another situation that makes the NL East feel the Braves have the blessings of a higher power, one of the top Braves prospects is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a catcher with power and plate discipline
Forida's firesale has provided Josh Willingham the opportunity to play significant innings behind the plate (definition: making enough appearances to qualify at catcher for the 2007 season.) The team also signed Miguel Olivo who should finally get the chance to show that speed he displayed, and the reason Roto owners have been waiting added him to their team, since his AA season in 2002 when he stole 29. Remember, despite this unfulfilled expectation, he has stolen 6, 7, and 7 bases the past three seasons. Matching that would make him more valuable than a $1 end-of-draft filler.
Speaking of that, the Mets' Ramon Castro should be an excellent 2nd catcher. His exposure will remain similar to last season where he out-performed the Mets latest catching edition, Paul LoDuca:
Castro: 29 years-old 209 ABs 8 HR 41 RBI .244 AVG .321 OBP .435 SLG
LoDuca: 34 years-old 445 ABS 6 HR 57 RBI .283 AVG .334 OBP .380 SLG
St. Louis saw 23-year-old Yadier Molina adequately replaced the offensive production of the pre-SF Matt Matheny.
Pitsburgh has Humberto Cota who matched the aforementioned @005 goodie, Damian Miller, in his first extended playing time. Ryan Doumit was also impressive in his first call-up last season.
The Dodgers Dioner Navarro did well last season as a 22-year-old in his (this should be familiar) first extended playing time as a major leaguer. And right behind him is the player Billy Beane had hoped Jeremy Brown would have been, Russ Martin (.311 AVG, .430 OBP in 409 official ABs).
Colorado dealt a Rule 5 pick for Yorvit Torrealba. He seems to have been bouncing around forever, but he is only 27 years old. Colorado should make him a decent #1 catcher come draft day. Because of this, he is likely to be the most over-valued, too. Think JD Closser, who may improve with more carefully managed ABs.
What this means is there is reason to enter next year's draft needing to draft a catcher or two because there should be equivalent production in the pool as that being protected (Jason LaRue, Paul Loduca, Mike Lieberthal, Damian Miller, Michael Barrett, Brian Schneider). It also means one of these young receivers will be cheap and result in good bail bait later in the season.
Javier Valentin did not make this list because he is already 30-years-old, but I like him as a very good 2nd catcher, and if he repeats his 2005 numbers, a #1. However, he is stuck behind Jason LaRue and cannot be reasonably be expected to get many more ABs than he did last year - severally limiting his upside potential.
Friday, December 30, 2005
NL Catchers
Damian Miller was one of the best catchers in the NL last season.
Declarative sentences like that should make teams shutter because it is true.
His .273 AVG was 4th after such luminaries as Ramon Hernandez, Michael Barrett and Paul LoDoca.
His 9 HR put him in the middle of the pack, which ranged from a high of Mike Piazza's 19 to zero.
Given Piazza's 62 RBI was tops at the postion, Miller's 43 runs drive in is very good. (Yes, Piazza was still a very top receiver in the NL last season.)
With this relative performance in mind, be prepared for Miller's owner to try to sell him based on his relative merits. He would likely be one of the top catchers available at NL drafts, but why pay for him based on that?
After all, Humberto Cota hit 7 HR and drove in 43 in fewer ABs, and he is 10 years younger. Not to mention last season was his first extended MLB action. It would be reasonable to expect slight improvement, and that is all it would take to surpass Miller.
I would also expect Brian McCann and Dioner Navarro,along with Josh Willingham, o surpass Miller's production. Not to mention the Met's Ramon Castro was equally effective in limited ABs.
So don't overpay for Miller based on his relatively postive performance in 2005. I expect him to go for no more than a few dollars at draft time.
Of course, I don't expect any catchers to go for more than $15 regardless.
Declarative sentences like that should make teams shutter because it is true.
His .273 AVG was 4th after such luminaries as Ramon Hernandez, Michael Barrett and Paul LoDoca.
His 9 HR put him in the middle of the pack, which ranged from a high of Mike Piazza's 19 to zero.
Given Piazza's 62 RBI was tops at the postion, Miller's 43 runs drive in is very good. (Yes, Piazza was still a very top receiver in the NL last season.)
With this relative performance in mind, be prepared for Miller's owner to try to sell him based on his relative merits. He would likely be one of the top catchers available at NL drafts, but why pay for him based on that?
After all, Humberto Cota hit 7 HR and drove in 43 in fewer ABs, and he is 10 years younger. Not to mention last season was his first extended MLB action. It would be reasonable to expect slight improvement, and that is all it would take to surpass Miller.
I would also expect Brian McCann and Dioner Navarro,along with Josh Willingham, o surpass Miller's production. Not to mention the Met's Ramon Castro was equally effective in limited ABs.
So don't overpay for Miller based on his relatively postive performance in 2005. I expect him to go for no more than a few dollars at draft time.
Of course, I don't expect any catchers to go for more than $15 regardless.
Thursday, December 29, 2005
Preston Wilson
P-Dubya is a player I have always considered over-rated. He had a stunning 2000 when he went 36/31 with 121 RBI, but his .264 AVG bothered me.
He remained at the 20/20 level for the next couple seasons and was then shipped out to Colorado where he had a truly great Roto season thanks to a Coors-inflated, injury-free.282 AVG. In all these seasons, he was a $30 player.
In 2004, he hurt every Roto team because he was likely protected at his 2003 price and was injured all season (6 HR in 202 ABs).
In 2005, he went for $25. It thought it was still too high. He entered last season and seemed to attract trade rumors from the opening pitch. As a result, I never really considered him.
Once he was dealt to Washington, I completely wrote him off figuring his power would plummet.
And so here I am considering what the Red Sox will do about CF, and P-Dub came to mind. He seems a good fit - a veteran who won't command a long contract. I then checked his numbers and was surpirsed to see his 2005 season was in line with his careeer numbers (minus SB) -25/90/.260.
A steal if the Red Sox can get him and a likely veteran sleeper for Roto.
A veteran sleeper being a player who goes for $15-$24 because he is no longer surrounded by hype but still produces.
He remained at the 20/20 level for the next couple seasons and was then shipped out to Colorado where he had a truly great Roto season thanks to a Coors-inflated, injury-free.282 AVG. In all these seasons, he was a $30 player.
In 2004, he hurt every Roto team because he was likely protected at his 2003 price and was injured all season (6 HR in 202 ABs).
In 2005, he went for $25. It thought it was still too high. He entered last season and seemed to attract trade rumors from the opening pitch. As a result, I never really considered him.
Once he was dealt to Washington, I completely wrote him off figuring his power would plummet.
And so here I am considering what the Red Sox will do about CF, and P-Dub came to mind. He seems a good fit - a veteran who won't command a long contract. I then checked his numbers and was surpirsed to see his 2005 season was in line with his careeer numbers (minus SB) -25/90/.260.
A steal if the Red Sox can get him and a likely veteran sleeper for Roto.
A veteran sleeper being a player who goes for $15-$24 because he is no longer surrounded by hype but still produces.
Burnitz
Two years, $5 million per?
What is wrong with the Orioles? Why won't anyone take their money? I don't know, and sense even if I did, the Os wouldn't care.
Rototimes has Jeff Conine listed at 1B. He will be in the running for the 2006 Worst Power from 1B with Kevin Youkilis.
Walter Young should be given 200 ABs. If he sinks, then let Conine garner the ABs. Otherwise, put the big man there and let him swing away.
What is wrong with the Orioles? Why won't anyone take their money? I don't know, and sense even if I did, the Os wouldn't care.
Rototimes has Jeff Conine listed at 1B. He will be in the running for the 2006 Worst Power from 1B with Kevin Youkilis.
Walter Young should be given 200 ABs. If he sinks, then let Conine garner the ABs. Otherwise, put the big man there and let him swing away.
Wednesday, December 28, 2005
Craig Counsell
He is going to move to shortstop with the acquistion of Gold Glove 2B Orlando Hudson.
Unfortunately, he won't be there for long. (Given the fact he played full-time last year, i suspect he will play there longer than he should.)
Stephen Drew is on the way and that will leave Counsell with very limited ABs, and that is too bad. After years and years of an unexplicably long careeer, he finally put up an excellent Roto number - 26 SBs.
Now that looks to be a pipe dream for 2006. Shame on you for not selling him high!
Unfortunately, he won't be there for long. (Given the fact he played full-time last year, i suspect he will play there longer than he should.)
Stephen Drew is on the way and that will leave Counsell with very limited ABs, and that is too bad. After years and years of an unexplicably long careeer, he finally put up an excellent Roto number - 26 SBs.
Now that looks to be a pipe dream for 2006. Shame on you for not selling him high!
Tuesday, December 27, 2005
Glaus Trade
The Blue Jays acquired slugging 3B/1B/DH from the Diamondbacks for 2005 Gold Glove 2B orlando Hudson and extremely versatile starter/longman/closer, Miguel Batisita.
I should have added "oft-injured" to Glaus appellation but that would have unnecessarily colored my view of the trade.
I think it is a Roto steal. Grabbing 30+ HRs for a non-descript middle infielder and a swingman is tremendous.
In real life, it is head-shaking. Why is JP gathering all the corner/DH types? Does he think he can deal from a postion of strength when all the other teams know he can't play Corey Koskie, Eric Hinkse, Troy Glaus, Shea Hillenbrand and Lyle Overbay in the same line-up?
And why give-up David Bush, Zack Jackson, Gabe Gross, Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batisita to put yourself in that postion?
I should have added "oft-injured" to Glaus appellation but that would have unnecessarily colored my view of the trade.
I think it is a Roto steal. Grabbing 30+ HRs for a non-descript middle infielder and a swingman is tremendous.
In real life, it is head-shaking. Why is JP gathering all the corner/DH types? Does he think he can deal from a postion of strength when all the other teams know he can't play Corey Koskie, Eric Hinkse, Troy Glaus, Shea Hillenbrand and Lyle Overbay in the same line-up?
And why give-up David Bush, Zack Jackson, Gabe Gross, Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batisita to put yourself in that postion?
Thursday, December 22, 2005
Reggie Sanders
Now that Reggie Sanders has signed with the Royals I can no longer argue during trade discussions that Emil Brown is still the clean-up hitter for the Royals and can be expected to match his 2005 performance; thus, amking him worth a mid-teens price.
Now he will only bat clean-up when Sanders is hurt. Which means half the time.
Brown will remain a quality Roto OF.
Those AL players who hit more than 15 HRs, drove in more than 75 runs, stole 8+ basesa dn hit greater than .280 are Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Vladimir Guerrero and Grady Sizemore. Granted Brown's numbers would have ranked him 5th in all the categories except RBIs where he ranked 4th ahead of Sizemore, this is still quite elite company to be in.
Even if the criteria is loosed to 12 HR, 70 RBI and a .275 AVG, only Tadahito Iguchi, Brian Roberts, Raul Ibanez and Carl Crawford join the club.
Brown is clearly one of the least respected/most underrated players in the AL.
Now he will only bat clean-up when Sanders is hurt. Which means half the time.
Brown will remain a quality Roto OF.
Those AL players who hit more than 15 HRs, drove in more than 75 runs, stole 8+ basesa dn hit greater than .280 are Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Vladimir Guerrero and Grady Sizemore. Granted Brown's numbers would have ranked him 5th in all the categories except RBIs where he ranked 4th ahead of Sizemore, this is still quite elite company to be in.
Even if the criteria is loosed to 12 HR, 70 RBI and a .275 AVG, only Tadahito Iguchi, Brian Roberts, Raul Ibanez and Carl Crawford join the club.
Brown is clearly one of the least respected/most underrated players in the AL.
Wednesday, December 21, 2005
New York Yankees
The Yanks got Johnny Damon on their terms (four years) and not on the strategically deceptive Scott Boras' terms.
This is a good signing although it seems as if the Yanks are willing to pay for a year or tow when he will not earn his salary. The one caveat is he will only be 34 and 35 during those years and the dramatic drop-off seen with Bernie Williams may prove to be atypical. (Hey, any chance Bernie is actually a couple years older than his listed age?)
Whatever Damon went for last season will likely be what he goes for this year. Plus Torre is not adverse to stealing bases so Damon will rebound into the 20s for SB. (Unless his shoulder is really damaged. If so, then this signing will start to suck in the second half of Year 1!)
As worthy of attention is the one-year deal Octavio Dotel signed with the Yanks. He is a prime closing sleeper for 2007! I would go several dollars on him for just that chance.
This is a good signing although it seems as if the Yanks are willing to pay for a year or tow when he will not earn his salary. The one caveat is he will only be 34 and 35 during those years and the dramatic drop-off seen with Bernie Williams may prove to be atypical. (Hey, any chance Bernie is actually a couple years older than his listed age?)
Whatever Damon went for last season will likely be what he goes for this year. Plus Torre is not adverse to stealing bases so Damon will rebound into the 20s for SB. (Unless his shoulder is really damaged. If so, then this signing will start to suck in the second half of Year 1!)
As worthy of attention is the one-year deal Octavio Dotel signed with the Yanks. He is a prime closing sleeper for 2007! I would go several dollars on him for just that chance.
Tuesday, December 20, 2005
Texas/San Diego Trade
The Rangers sent SP Chris Young, 1B Adrian Gonzalez and OF Termel Sledge to San Diego for SP Adam Eaton, RP Akori Otsuka and a low-level minor league catcher.
I cannot see why Texas would make this deal. Eaton is a free agent after next season. Young just completed his first full season and proved capable of successfully pitching in a hitter's park. Eaton pitched in a pitcher friendly park without the DH. Advantage: San Diego.
Otsuka has been a good middle reliever but he is still going from pitcher friendly confines to pitcher adverse ones. However, as a middle reliever he can be selectively exposed to favorable situations.
Adrian Gonzalez will be starting in San Diego by mid-season and has not completed a full-season in the majors yet. Sledge will be a decent 4th OF who just finished his rookie year, too.
The low-level catcher has yet to complete a full season of Low A ball.
Mixed leagues wouldn't make this trade. Why would texas? Was Daniels weaned on Yahoo! shallow mixed-leagues and as a result doesn't know that he can't just dip into the free agent pool to pick-up a 1B or OF?
More specific for Roto, this trade sends signals that Dave Roberts and Ryan Klesko are going to be platoon players in SD or trade bait.
I cannot see why Texas would make this deal. Eaton is a free agent after next season. Young just completed his first full season and proved capable of successfully pitching in a hitter's park. Eaton pitched in a pitcher friendly park without the DH. Advantage: San Diego.
Otsuka has been a good middle reliever but he is still going from pitcher friendly confines to pitcher adverse ones. However, as a middle reliever he can be selectively exposed to favorable situations.
Adrian Gonzalez will be starting in San Diego by mid-season and has not completed a full-season in the majors yet. Sledge will be a decent 4th OF who just finished his rookie year, too.
The low-level catcher has yet to complete a full season of Low A ball.
Mixed leagues wouldn't make this trade. Why would texas? Was Daniels weaned on Yahoo! shallow mixed-leagues and as a result doesn't know that he can't just dip into the free agent pool to pick-up a 1B or OF?
More specific for Roto, this trade sends signals that Dave Roberts and Ryan Klesko are going to be platoon players in SD or trade bait.
Monday, December 19, 2005
Jorge Sosa
After starting Game Three of the NLDS for the Braves, I have pencilled Jorge Sosa in as the #4 starter for the Atlanta Braves in 2006.
As such, I sent offers with him as the key piece as if this were the case, and known to other teams. In two cases, I was rebuffed because he was not in the starting rotation.
I was shocked so I immediately began a cursory search for information that would lead these teams to ignore the Game Three starting assignment.
No roto blurbs on Rotoworld or TQS. No off-season Atlanta signings of a starting pitcher or rumors of such. Then I checked the depth charts provided by Rotoworld and saw the reason. The service has Sosa listed in the bullpen and Mike Hapmton as the #3 starter.
Unfortuantely for Mike Hampton owners, he is out for 2006 with Tommy John surgery, but the damage had been done.
This weekend, Rotoworld had a Dominican Winter League update on Sosa. He pitched two innings of relief. Maybe one of these teams was privy to this and I missed it.
But as my Roto mind works, I cast it in a more favorable light. Since the Braves have not signed a closer to replace Kyle Farnsworth, maybe they are grooming Sosa to do it!
And if this is the case, I am glad those teams turned him down because nothing in Roto makes me feel sicker than seeing a former player of mine turn into a closer.
As such, I sent offers with him as the key piece as if this were the case, and known to other teams. In two cases, I was rebuffed because he was not in the starting rotation.
I was shocked so I immediately began a cursory search for information that would lead these teams to ignore the Game Three starting assignment.
No roto blurbs on Rotoworld or TQS. No off-season Atlanta signings of a starting pitcher or rumors of such. Then I checked the depth charts provided by Rotoworld and saw the reason. The service has Sosa listed in the bullpen and Mike Hapmton as the #3 starter.
Unfortuantely for Mike Hampton owners, he is out for 2006 with Tommy John surgery, but the damage had been done.
This weekend, Rotoworld had a Dominican Winter League update on Sosa. He pitched two innings of relief. Maybe one of these teams was privy to this and I missed it.
But as my Roto mind works, I cast it in a more favorable light. Since the Braves have not signed a closer to replace Kyle Farnsworth, maybe they are grooming Sosa to do it!
And if this is the case, I am glad those teams turned him down because nothing in Roto makes me feel sicker than seeing a former player of mine turn into a closer.
Friday, December 16, 2005
Kansas City
What are they doing?
Why would they sign Elmer Dessens, Scott Elarton, Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Grudzalaniek, Paul Bako?
I can't see any of those players being considered starting players on any other team with the exception of Grudzalaniek, and even he is so pedestrian that I would forgo his blandness for a younger player with upside.
All they did was overpay for their 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th and 25th man on their 25-man rosters.
Stupid management leads to bad teams - not market size.
Why would they sign Elmer Dessens, Scott Elarton, Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Grudzalaniek, Paul Bako?
I can't see any of those players being considered starting players on any other team with the exception of Grudzalaniek, and even he is so pedestrian that I would forgo his blandness for a younger player with upside.
All they did was overpay for their 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th and 25th man on their 25-man rosters.
Stupid management leads to bad teams - not market size.
Wednesday, December 14, 2005
Javier Vasquez
Did I miss something? Has Vasquez pitched like a 10-figure per year pitcher the past two seasons?
He has not, at least if being a 10-figure pitcher means being Top 10 in any positive pitching categories.
In the real world something has not translated to Roto. Assuming all three players were protectable (Vasquez <$13, Vizcaino <$3, El Duque <$3 and Young a drafted farm player), no one would turn down El Duque, Vizcaino and Young for Vasquez.
Personally, I wouldn't have traded Young for Vasquez straight-up. 200 inning starting pitchers with ERAs near 4.50 have no place on my team. Nevermind that his ERA will likely go up pitching to 9-man line-ups and in a hitter-friendly home ballpark.
He has not, at least if being a 10-figure pitcher means being Top 10 in any positive pitching categories.
In the real world something has not translated to Roto. Assuming all three players were protectable (Vasquez <$13, Vizcaino <$3, El Duque <$3 and Young a drafted farm player), no one would turn down El Duque, Vizcaino and Young for Vasquez.
Personally, I wouldn't have traded Young for Vasquez straight-up. 200 inning starting pitchers with ERAs near 4.50 have no place on my team. Nevermind that his ERA will likely go up pitching to 9-man line-ups and in a hitter-friendly home ballpark.
Tuesday, December 13, 2005
Who's on first?
Nomar Garciaparra????
Jeez, the Big Stein has to make a splash, doesn't he? Even if it means moving baseball's hottest 2nd half hitter in 2005, Jason Giambi, from the situation he occupied while amassing those numbers?
Foolish.
Jeez, the Big Stein has to make a splash, doesn't he? Even if it means moving baseball's hottest 2nd half hitter in 2005, Jason Giambi, from the situation he occupied while amassing those numbers?
Foolish.
Monday, December 12, 2005
Trading
I sent an inquiry to the team that just lost Soriano to the NL figuring he had already committed to protecting him at his salary ($43). My bait was a $36 Ichiro.
He asked what I was interested in and I mentioned weither of the SS.
He looked at my team and responded I had more keepable players than I could protect.
And that was it.
Shouldn't he have known to make an offer with two players from my team? Or three? Doesn't everyone know to do this?
Apparently not.
As a result, our discussions have morphed into me holding his hand and trying to teach him how to negotiate Roto trades. Needless to say this is like a joke where you have to explain the punchline - not fun.
He asked what I was interested in and I mentioned weither of the SS.
He looked at my team and responded I had more keepable players than I could protect.
And that was it.
Shouldn't he have known to make an offer with two players from my team? Or three? Doesn't everyone know to do this?
Apparently not.
As a result, our discussions have morphed into me holding his hand and trying to teach him how to negotiate Roto trades. Needless to say this is like a joke where you have to explain the punchline - not fun.
Friday, December 09, 2005
Dan Uggla
He was selected by the Florida Marlins yesterday. As a 2B, he certainly looks as good as any other option the team has. Actually, he looks like the best. Sorry to all you Alfredo Almazaega fans.
In AA Tennessee of the Southern league, he hit .297/.378/.502 with 33 doubles, 21 homers, and 15 steals. With that type of pop, I expect he can be a decent Roto middle infielder with 300+ ABs. My guess is a slightly better version of Aaron Miles.
For comparison, as a 25-year-old in the same league, Miles hit .304/.354/.445.
Hopefully, Ugga won't be too close to Miles' numbers because the guys at Rotoworld will attack him as visciously as they do Miles!
In AA Tennessee of the Southern league, he hit .297/.378/.502 with 33 doubles, 21 homers, and 15 steals. With that type of pop, I expect he can be a decent Roto middle infielder with 300+ ABs. My guess is a slightly better version of Aaron Miles.
For comparison, as a 25-year-old in the same league, Miles hit .304/.354/.445.
Hopefully, Ugga won't be too close to Miles' numbers because the guys at Rotoworld will attack him as visciously as they do Miles!
Esteban German
Yesterday, the Royals acquired Esteban German for the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft.
He is a major sleeper. He has spent 4 full years atAAA and consistently posted high OBPs (.390. .379, .380, and .400 the last four seasons) and he stole 43 bases last season (26, 32, 18 in half a year the prior three seasons.) while also improving his caught stealing percentages. With little to no competition for 2B, he should get full-time ABs next year, and if he is decent, rack up very good SB numbers (>20) for a handful or so of draft dollars.
As I expect him to land on most sleeper lists, I won't say he will be had for a $1 at the end of the draft. However, my past experience of middle infielder prices has shown the vast majority to go for $15 +/- $5. I expect him to still go for less than the lower end of that range. I would also consider protecting him at $10 if he was plucked from the pool at some point last season and is still on a team's reserve list.
The most glaring question is why, in this Moneyball era, did he spend four full seasons in AAA while doing everything the sabremetricians tout?
He is a major sleeper. He has spent 4 full years atAAA and consistently posted high OBPs (.390. .379, .380, and .400 the last four seasons) and he stole 43 bases last season (26, 32, 18 in half a year the prior three seasons.) while also improving his caught stealing percentages. With little to no competition for 2B, he should get full-time ABs next year, and if he is decent, rack up very good SB numbers (>20) for a handful or so of draft dollars.
As I expect him to land on most sleeper lists, I won't say he will be had for a $1 at the end of the draft. However, my past experience of middle infielder prices has shown the vast majority to go for $15 +/- $5. I expect him to still go for less than the lower end of that range. I would also consider protecting him at $10 if he was plucked from the pool at some point last season and is still on a team's reserve list.
The most glaring question is why, in this Moneyball era, did he spend four full seasons in AAA while doing everything the sabremetricians tout?
Tuesday, December 06, 2005
Sean Casey
So Pitsburgh needs a 31-year-old 1B with minimal power to make them.....what? Stupid?
Casey's reputation as a great teammate is going to have to go a loooooooooooooooooooooooooong way if this is to be considered a good trade.
Dave Williams may not be Randy Johnson, but he is 26 and left-handed. One would think the Pirates could have gotten a little more than a soon-to-be free agent 1B with low double digit power making $8.5 million this year.
God, what an awful deal for the Pirates!
Casey's reputation as a great teammate is going to have to go a loooooooooooooooooooooooooong way if this is to be considered a good trade.
Dave Williams may not be Randy Johnson, but he is 26 and left-handed. One would think the Pirates could have gotten a little more than a soon-to-be free agent 1B with low double digit power making $8.5 million this year.
God, what an awful deal for the Pirates!
Monday, December 05, 2005
Stripping the farm
Didn't Minaya leave the Expos/Nationals farm system barren?
He is certainly doing it to the Mets. He traded Gabby Hernandez, considered their best pitching propsect after the Petit deal, and a PTBNL for a 34-year-old catcher with poor catch-stealers skills who is owed $6 mm for each of the next two seasons.
I guess his non-Roto contributions are much greater than are apparent in his numbers because I don't see how he is $11+ mm better than Ramon Castro.
Castro: 28 years-old 209 ABs 8 HR 41 RBI .244 AVG .321 OBP .435 SLG
LoDuca: 34 years-old 445 ABS 6 HR 57 RBI .283 AVG .334 OBP .380 SLG
Before Minaya is allowed to trade prospects he should be asked, "How are Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore doing?"
He is certainly doing it to the Mets. He traded Gabby Hernandez, considered their best pitching propsect after the Petit deal, and a PTBNL for a 34-year-old catcher with poor catch-stealers skills who is owed $6 mm for each of the next two seasons.
I guess his non-Roto contributions are much greater than are apparent in his numbers because I don't see how he is $11+ mm better than Ramon Castro.
Castro: 28 years-old 209 ABs 8 HR 41 RBI .244 AVG .321 OBP .435 SLG
LoDuca: 34 years-old 445 ABS 6 HR 57 RBI .283 AVG .334 OBP .380 SLG
Before Minaya is allowed to trade prospects he should be asked, "How are Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore doing?"
Saturday, December 03, 2005
Marlins
Castillo had a very nice OBP, but if the new 2b can add some pop, I think the Marlins will not be noticably worse.
Seems a great risk for the team - add one power arm for the 2006 bullpen with another in AA for a 2B whose main value is concentrated on the current obsession with OBP.
Speaking of such, the Phils asked for Wang from the Yanks for Jason Michale, another player who has one skill - OBP. He has no pop whatsoever while playing in a hitter-friendly park.
Seems a great risk for the team - add one power arm for the 2006 bullpen with another in AA for a 2B whose main value is concentrated on the current obsession with OBP.
Speaking of such, the Phils asked for Wang from the Yanks for Jason Michale, another player who has one skill - OBP. He has no pop whatsoever while playing in a hitter-friendly park.
Friday, December 02, 2005
Luis Castillo
At least, the Twins have an infielder who can hit .300. As for power and speed....
Travis Bowyer looks like a "sleeper" to close. I put that in quotes because everyone will know it and thus he won't be a true sleeper.
he would make Proctor that much more of a sleeper, though, if he gets all the off-season hype.
Travis Bowyer looks like a "sleeper" to close. I put that in quotes because everyone will know it and thus he won't be a true sleeper.
he would make Proctor that much more of a sleeper, though, if he gets all the off-season hype.
Juan Pierre to the Yanks?
This makes perfect sense. The Yanks need a CF. Florida is having a fire sale with a CF on display. And the Fish want a couple of mediocre pitchers - Scott Proctor and Sean Henn.
If this occurred, I like Proctor as a sleeper in Florida. if the Fish have no defined closer come Opening Day, I would love him!
As for Henn, I was unimpressed last season, but would not be surprised to see him be moderately successful a la Brad Halsey in the NL.
As for Pierre, get your checkbook ready because he will go for $30+. See Scott Podsednick for a rough estimation of draft value.
If this occurred, I like Proctor as a sleeper in Florida. if the Fish have no defined closer come Opening Day, I would love him!
As for Henn, I was unimpressed last season, but would not be surprised to see him be moderately successful a la Brad Halsey in the NL.
As for Pierre, get your checkbook ready because he will go for $30+. See Scott Podsednick for a rough estimation of draft value.
Thursday, December 01, 2005
Farnsworth
Anyone notice that Steve Karsay's $22 million contract is now the norm for an 8th inning pitcher?
I am glad Kyle Farnsworth signed to set-up because I would not have wanted to risk closer money on him at the draft. I know he did well in the role last season, but what about that blow-up with a 5-0 lead in the play-offs?
Like I said, I am happy to not have to take that risk.
He could be a decent middle reliver though. Pitching for the Yankees, he should be in line for some Ws. And if he fails, you will know very quickly because Torre will stop using him regularly, and you can cut bait. There is little chance the Yanks would give-up on him during the first year (Although, I am sure, the Tampa Cronies would revel in Cashman's mistake.) Before there was Javier Vasquez, there was Sterling Hitchcock would pitched mop-up for $6.3 MM.
This would allay some of the fear that he would end-up closing somewhere else.
Given the market, the Yanks are better off over paying two set-up men for the price of one closer. And they haven't brought in a weak-armed, sore shouldered CF for another 7 years and $80+ million,
I am glad Kyle Farnsworth signed to set-up because I would not have wanted to risk closer money on him at the draft. I know he did well in the role last season, but what about that blow-up with a 5-0 lead in the play-offs?
Like I said, I am happy to not have to take that risk.
He could be a decent middle reliver though. Pitching for the Yankees, he should be in line for some Ws. And if he fails, you will know very quickly because Torre will stop using him regularly, and you can cut bait. There is little chance the Yanks would give-up on him during the first year (Although, I am sure, the Tampa Cronies would revel in Cashman's mistake.) Before there was Javier Vasquez, there was Sterling Hitchcock would pitched mop-up for $6.3 MM.
This would allay some of the fear that he would end-up closing somewhere else.
Given the market, the Yanks are better off over paying two set-up men for the price of one closer. And they haven't brought in a weak-armed, sore shouldered CF for another 7 years and $80+ million,
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