Baltimore Orioles

An off-season in which the team gives all apearances of disarray could be a good thing come draft day. Many of their productive players will go for less than they should - Miguel Tejada excepted.

Jay Gibbons pops out. He was surprisingly good last season - 26/79/.277. Yes, he hit .277 which is a positive for AVG. A three category hitter could be expected to go for $25+ in a typical league. I do not see that happening as long as he is an Oriole (and possibiliy ever!)

The first impressions Gibbons made was a player with power and a poor AVG as demonstraed in his first two seasons (15/36/.236 in his rookie year and 28/69/.247.) He broke out in 2003 but regressed in an injury-plagued 2004, cementing the initial impressions.

But he returned to his 2003 AVG in 2005 leading me to believe he has established a new level of performance. (Recall he was a Rule 5 player and learned on the job his first couple seasons.)

I expect him to be a "veteran sleeper" and a solid #2 OF or co-#1 with a similar player. (Def of veteran sleeper: an everyday player who produces consistently but never makes an All-Star team. Value $17-$24. Or previously defined here for Preston Wilson - a player who goes for $15-$24 because he is no longer surrounded by hype but still produces.)

If the O's obtain Cory Patterson, I do not expect him to be a sleeper as his SB totals will cause any AL league to respond Pavlovianally - immediately bid him to the high $20s and that is no bargain for 4X4 favorite CPat. That said, I personally like him and wish the Yanks had tried him in CF. One thing his detractors (everyone but me) fail to note is this year will be his 27 one and that means highest likelihood of a career year!

On the pitching side, I hold out hope that Erik Bedard's poor return from injury knocks him far enough down draft lists that he can be had for $7-$13. If so, then I can see him having a very good risk/reward profile. This will be wholely dependent on the maintenance of his improved walk rate. Even if he does not, he will maintain his trade value based solely upon the gushing of scouts.

In the bullpen, Chris Ray is already everyone's "sleeper" to close, but the one to watch is 2005 nightmare, Jorge Julio. His numbers were horrific, but the O's did bring in Leo Mazzone and he could help Julio return to his previous level of production. If that is the case, I expect Julio to open the season as the closer and to hold it until he is either traded or the 2006 season ends.

Nick Markakis is the prospect to watch and grab either in your minor league draft or immediately after he is recalled. His walk rates are excellent and his combo of power and speed make me believe he will have a HR/SB season like Alexis Rios' 2005 campaign. He may not be a sleeper come Opening Day, but his future is bright enough to merit mention right now.