The most distinguishing mark the Royals made this off-season is the plethora of end of the 25-man-roster additions they signed – Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Grudzielanek, Paul Bako, Elmer Dessens, Joe Mays, Scott Elarton.
I’ve covered various players that I like in previous posts (Here for Emil Brown. Here for Esteban German.)
A player I do like that shouldn’t get too much, if any, hype is catcher John Buck. He hit 12 HRs last season and that total is very good for a catcher nowadays. He will enter his third season, and an expectation of improvement due to experience is not irrational. What would be is if I expected that improvement to take him north of .280 with 25 HR, but an improvement to .250-.260 with 15 HR is not. For a $1 or $2, that is nice from a position that is punted more often than a Jets football.
One comment about the RBI totals for the Royals this season. Given a very weak line-up (current definition: Emil Brown as the uncontested as a #5 hitter.), I do not expect the leaders, Sweeney and Brown, to drive in more than 90. There just won’t be enough men on base. This isn’t a Moneyball analysis based on OBP. This is a plain ol’ the hitters stink one. There is really nothing to fear from the bottom four hitters in the line-up. I know Buck is one of them, but hitting .260 with 15 HR is not fearful when the players in front and in back of him will not match that power.
On the mound, I can state with confidence that I do not like the risk/reward equation of any starter. As none, will rack-up in-the-teens Ws, the innings-weighted ERA/WHIP contribution is too high. Zach Greinke would have been an exception, but he was so bad last year, that I would rather have another team draft him. If he reverts back to his rookie form, then I will whole-heartedly pay full-price in a trade for him.
In the bullpen, MacDougal will open as the closer, and Abriorix Burgos is so well known that there shouldn’t be any surprises.
On the farm, 2006 begins and ends with Alex Gordon. He will not be unknown but should be grabbed at the same time Brandon Wood is in a minor league draft or bid to $20 if he makes the team out of Spring Training. His plate discipline and power in college are good, but college doesn't count. In the AFL, he hit .260 in 50 ABs and drew 12 walks! Mark Teahan watch out!
Wednesday, January 11, 2006
Tuesday, January 10, 2006
FOXSports.com - MLB- O's should still listen to offers for Tejada
FOXSports.com - MLB- O's should still listen to offers for Tejada
Ken Rosenthal reports the Astros offered Brad Lidge, Adam Everett and either Jason lane or Wily Tavares for Miguel Tejeda.
I am stunned that Tejada is still an Oriole. I'd be more stunned if 28 other teams have been getting busy signals all morning on the Atros telephone line.
That offer is absolutely the best one the Os could ever hope for. A top flight closer, a good defensive shortstop and a quality OF who can play all three spots. All the players are reltively inexpensive to boot.
With the Red Sox needing a SS, CF and a closer, do you think they flew Manny and $20 million in cash to Houston already?
Jeez, the offer is so good that I think it is, in fact, not true, and foxspsports.com is being played.
Ken Rosenthal reports the Astros offered Brad Lidge, Adam Everett and either Jason lane or Wily Tavares for Miguel Tejeda.
I am stunned that Tejada is still an Oriole. I'd be more stunned if 28 other teams have been getting busy signals all morning on the Atros telephone line.
That offer is absolutely the best one the Os could ever hope for. A top flight closer, a good defensive shortstop and a quality OF who can play all three spots. All the players are reltively inexpensive to boot.
With the Red Sox needing a SS, CF and a closer, do you think they flew Manny and $20 million in cash to Houston already?
Jeez, the offer is so good that I think it is, in fact, not true, and foxspsports.com is being played.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins seem to be hoping for there first 30+ HR season since 1987 to come from Jusitn Morneau. It very well may, but Morneau is so well-known that I cannot envision him being a sleeper. After all, he did hit 22 HR last season. That is not an amount that anyone would be shocked to see rise to 30.
Jason Bartlett, on the other hand, was highly touted entering last season but did not live up to that touting. This season I expect him to do so. I see a 10 HR/15+ SB campaign with a non-harmful AVG (.270 or so). Given his poor 2005, he should come fairly cheaply - no more than $9 or $10 if he is available when multiple team finds themsleves with some draft cash and a need in the middle.
Jason Kubel will be given every chance to win a starting job. He was highly-touted following the 2004 season. Despite missing all of 2005, he has not been forgotten. I would not hesitate to go into the high teens for him if he is healthy, but I also do not consider that sleeper value either. My general full-value for ROY candidates available in the draft is $18. To me, that is the happy medium between future potential and current season capability.
In the rotation, everyone talks about Francisco Liriano. I have nothing to add except to say I was queried by a writer friend prior to last season about the potential for a book that followed him through his 2005 season. I thought it would have been interesting, but I never expected Liriano's breakthrough 2005 season either.
Scott Baker is the player I would watch. With Liriano sucking all the air from the room, Baker could go for a fraction of the cost and do as well. His ratios are just as good as Liriano's are, but he won't cost double digits as I expect FL will.
In the bullpen, no one is taking Nathan's job. Jesse Crain will get some hype, but I am leary of a pitcher who dominates in the bullpen while striking out only 25 in 79 2/3 innings. Yikes! he walked more than he struck out. Sell high if you have him! (Think Dan Kolb.)
In the minors, keep an eye on Denard Span. Torii Hunter is expensive, and Span could provide a nice alternative. I wrote about him earlier this off-season right here.
Jason Bartlett, on the other hand, was highly touted entering last season but did not live up to that touting. This season I expect him to do so. I see a 10 HR/15+ SB campaign with a non-harmful AVG (.270 or so). Given his poor 2005, he should come fairly cheaply - no more than $9 or $10 if he is available when multiple team finds themsleves with some draft cash and a need in the middle.
Jason Kubel will be given every chance to win a starting job. He was highly-touted following the 2004 season. Despite missing all of 2005, he has not been forgotten. I would not hesitate to go into the high teens for him if he is healthy, but I also do not consider that sleeper value either. My general full-value for ROY candidates available in the draft is $18. To me, that is the happy medium between future potential and current season capability.
In the rotation, everyone talks about Francisco Liriano. I have nothing to add except to say I was queried by a writer friend prior to last season about the potential for a book that followed him through his 2005 season. I thought it would have been interesting, but I never expected Liriano's breakthrough 2005 season either.
Scott Baker is the player I would watch. With Liriano sucking all the air from the room, Baker could go for a fraction of the cost and do as well. His ratios are just as good as Liriano's are, but he won't cost double digits as I expect FL will.
In the bullpen, no one is taking Nathan's job. Jesse Crain will get some hype, but I am leary of a pitcher who dominates in the bullpen while striking out only 25 in 79 2/3 innings. Yikes! he walked more than he struck out. Sell high if you have him! (Think Dan Kolb.)
In the minors, keep an eye on Denard Span. Torii Hunter is expensive, and Span could provide a nice alternative. I wrote about him earlier this off-season right here.
Monday, January 09, 2006
Cleveland Indians
The Red Sox and Devil Rays were tough to call. The Indians are not so. Every role is defined, and there should be no surprises for playing time.
But, and you knew there had to be a "but", the Indians did sign a minor league free agent from the Dodgers organization, Todd Donovan. The big number is 62. Those are the stolen bases he racked up at AA Jacksonville. To boot, he also hit 8 HR, 16 2B and 10 triples. Grab him for a $1 at the end of the draft or grab him from the pool if he is recalled.
Bob Wickman accepted salary arbitration and will open the season as the Indians closer, but he will be mentioned as a shaky closer by every Roto sight - exactly as he was last season while putting up a career best season. As long as he is reliable, the Indians will not risk putting an inexperienced pitcher in the role as they contend for a play-off spot.
If he is hurt, the Rotopunditariat favorite, Fernando Cabrera, will get all the ink. And deservedly so after combining for 97 Ks in 82 innings between AAA and Cleveland. Normally I tend towards the contrarian opinion of the Roto commentators, on this one, I would join the herd and go to the low double digits to get him on draft day.
Jeremy Sowers is a minor leaguer to watch. A lefty with strikeout ability and good control, the only question is he is not overpowering. I can't help but draw comparisons to Yusi Petit of the Marlins as a minor league pitcher who knows how to strikeout batters without a power pitch. As such, I suspect he knows how to pitch better than the average rookie and, combined with the Indians good defense, should be considered a surprise $1 pitcher or a decent pool pick-up.
But, and you knew there had to be a "but", the Indians did sign a minor league free agent from the Dodgers organization, Todd Donovan. The big number is 62. Those are the stolen bases he racked up at AA Jacksonville. To boot, he also hit 8 HR, 16 2B and 10 triples. Grab him for a $1 at the end of the draft or grab him from the pool if he is recalled.
Bob Wickman accepted salary arbitration and will open the season as the Indians closer, but he will be mentioned as a shaky closer by every Roto sight - exactly as he was last season while putting up a career best season. As long as he is reliable, the Indians will not risk putting an inexperienced pitcher in the role as they contend for a play-off spot.
If he is hurt, the Rotopunditariat favorite, Fernando Cabrera, will get all the ink. And deservedly so after combining for 97 Ks in 82 innings between AAA and Cleveland. Normally I tend towards the contrarian opinion of the Roto commentators, on this one, I would join the herd and go to the low double digits to get him on draft day.
Jeremy Sowers is a minor leaguer to watch. A lefty with strikeout ability and good control, the only question is he is not overpowering. I can't help but draw comparisons to Yusi Petit of the Marlins as a minor league pitcher who knows how to strikeout batters without a power pitch. As such, I suspect he knows how to pitch better than the average rookie and, combined with the Indians good defense, should be considered a surprise $1 pitcher or a decent pool pick-up.
Chicago White Sox
The World champions return a squad that will no longer be unknown.
I see a couple players having good upside surprise in 2006. The first is Tadahito Iguchi. He did well in his inaugural US season with double digit HR and SB with an unharmful AVG (15/15/.278). Now with World Series experience, I expect 2006 to be his best. 20/20 is right there to be taken. Anything less than $20 will be a steal.
Brian Nikola Anderson is the other player I expect to do surprisingly well. In finance, there is a way of determining how well a company is doing by signaling. It says"that insiders have information not available to the market. Moves made by insiders can signal information to outsiders and change the stock price."
Place GM Kenny Williams in the role of an insider, and the one of insider moves as the trade of CFers Aaron Rowand and Chris Young, a propsect that had a better AA season than any Anderson has yet to have, and he (CY) is younger!
What you conclude is B. Nikola Anderson is going to do well. I see him matching Rowand's 2005 HR production (13) with slightly fewer RBI and the same AVG.
Bobby Jenks broke through his past to end the season as the closer. I would not be surprised to see a relapse into his previous control and off-field problems. If this occurs, I expect Ozzie Guillen to mess around with the closer role - just as he did last season when Dustan Hermanson was successfully closing and lost the job - just as Mr. Zero successfully closed in 2004 only to be yanked out the role for Hermanson - just as Damaso Marte was messed around with all season.
On the farm, keep an eye on Jerry Owens. He was old for AA (24) but his Moneyball stats (.393 OBP) shame Scott Podsednick and his speed will not make Podsednick take on any airs (38 in AA and, most importantly, 4 in n 18 AB call-up in September.) I would not be surpised to see Podsednick lose quite a few ABs to Owens. If he makes the team, grab him. A poor man's Joey Gaithwright on draft day!
I see a couple players having good upside surprise in 2006. The first is Tadahito Iguchi. He did well in his inaugural US season with double digit HR and SB with an unharmful AVG (15/15/.278). Now with World Series experience, I expect 2006 to be his best. 20/20 is right there to be taken. Anything less than $20 will be a steal.
Brian Nikola Anderson is the other player I expect to do surprisingly well. In finance, there is a way of determining how well a company is doing by signaling. It says"that insiders have information not available to the market. Moves made by insiders can signal information to outsiders and change the stock price."
Place GM Kenny Williams in the role of an insider, and the one of insider moves as the trade of CFers Aaron Rowand and Chris Young, a propsect that had a better AA season than any Anderson has yet to have, and he (CY) is younger!
What you conclude is B. Nikola Anderson is going to do well. I see him matching Rowand's 2005 HR production (13) with slightly fewer RBI and the same AVG.
Bobby Jenks broke through his past to end the season as the closer. I would not be surprised to see a relapse into his previous control and off-field problems. If this occurs, I expect Ozzie Guillen to mess around with the closer role - just as he did last season when Dustan Hermanson was successfully closing and lost the job - just as Mr. Zero successfully closed in 2004 only to be yanked out the role for Hermanson - just as Damaso Marte was messed around with all season.
On the farm, keep an eye on Jerry Owens. He was old for AA (24) but his Moneyball stats (.393 OBP) shame Scott Podsednick and his speed will not make Podsednick take on any airs (38 in AA and, most importantly, 4 in n 18 AB call-up in September.) I would not be surpised to see Podsednick lose quite a few ABs to Owens. If he makes the team, grab him. A poor man's Joey Gaithwright on draft day!
NY Yankees Top 10 Prospects
Baseball America has posted their top 10 Yankee prospects entering the 2006 season, and I am very, very excited.
Amongst the top 8, Eric Duncan is the youngest, and he will spend his first AAA season as a 21-year-old. With only one Dominican, there should not be too many age surprises that would seriously deteriorate the quality of the list.
Given the Yankees do not need any immediate help on the big league club, I can see the orgnaization boasting one of the best systems in 2007/2008.
This will be the first season that I may spend minor league picks on multiple Yankee propsects (Hughes, Duncan, Tabata and Jackson look very good.)
Amongst the top 8, Eric Duncan is the youngest, and he will spend his first AAA season as a 21-year-old. With only one Dominican, there should not be too many age surprises that would seriously deteriorate the quality of the list.
Given the Yankees do not need any immediate help on the big league club, I can see the orgnaization boasting one of the best systems in 2007/2008.
This will be the first season that I may spend minor league picks on multiple Yankee propsects (Hughes, Duncan, Tabata and Jackson look very good.)
Sunday, January 08, 2006
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
If you think the gaping holes at SS and CF in Boston make Roto-evaluation tricky, the stay away from Tampa Bay. With RF Aubrey Huff, SS Julio Lugo and CL Danys Baez in trade rumors of one kind or another every single day, important Roto decisons are delayed.
Lugo stole 34 bases last season. That would make him a solid $20+ player. If he is dealt, then BJ Upton gets a shot and will be amongst the most hyped players in Spring Training. This would lead his draft price into the $20s - way over-priced in my book.
Aubrey Huff is a "veteran sleeper". If he is traded, a spot opens for Joey Gathwright to hit everyday, and, if that ever happens, he will be a 50+ SB player which makes him a $30+ Roto player. If Huff isn't traded, Gaithwright will still command a lot of draft day attention and likely go in the mid-teens - too high for 2006 but a decent play on 2007.
Danys Baez is the closer, and a good one in 2005. If he isn't dealt prior to draft day, then he will be in trade rumors the minute a play-off contending team's closer blows his first save, This will damp down his draft day price, but also his in-season Roto trade value. Who is going to pay the price to get a closer via trade when he could be dealt to the NL?
Picking through the TB bullpen is vital and will result in a great bargain for the team that gets lucky enough to land the successor to Baez. The top contenders are Chad Orvella, Lance Carter and Jesus Colome. Of them, the only one not to either have previously closed (Carter) or been hyped as the future closer for this entire century (Colome) is Orvella, who took on the future closer tag last year. I do not like any of them, but would think Carter would get the first shot because he has done it before.
That is an admittedly weak reason, but I do not know what is going on in Tampa. I had thought prior GM Chuck Lamar was the problem, but apparently, he was not. The current management appears to be just as idiotic - assuming you believe they should trade any of their impending 2006 free agents.
Maybe they should just keep them? Hmmmmmmm, that is an intersting shift in thinking.
Lugo stole 34 bases last season. That would make him a solid $20+ player. If he is dealt, then BJ Upton gets a shot and will be amongst the most hyped players in Spring Training. This would lead his draft price into the $20s - way over-priced in my book.
Aubrey Huff is a "veteran sleeper". If he is traded, a spot opens for Joey Gathwright to hit everyday, and, if that ever happens, he will be a 50+ SB player which makes him a $30+ Roto player. If Huff isn't traded, Gaithwright will still command a lot of draft day attention and likely go in the mid-teens - too high for 2006 but a decent play on 2007.
Danys Baez is the closer, and a good one in 2005. If he isn't dealt prior to draft day, then he will be in trade rumors the minute a play-off contending team's closer blows his first save, This will damp down his draft day price, but also his in-season Roto trade value. Who is going to pay the price to get a closer via trade when he could be dealt to the NL?
Picking through the TB bullpen is vital and will result in a great bargain for the team that gets lucky enough to land the successor to Baez. The top contenders are Chad Orvella, Lance Carter and Jesus Colome. Of them, the only one not to either have previously closed (Carter) or been hyped as the future closer for this entire century (Colome) is Orvella, who took on the future closer tag last year. I do not like any of them, but would think Carter would get the first shot because he has done it before.
That is an admittedly weak reason, but I do not know what is going on in Tampa. I had thought prior GM Chuck Lamar was the problem, but apparently, he was not. The current management appears to be just as idiotic - assuming you believe they should trade any of their impending 2006 free agents.
Maybe they should just keep them? Hmmmmmmm, that is an intersting shift in thinking.
Saturday, January 07, 2006
NL ROY
On his eponymous website, John Sickels posted a question about the 2006 NL Rookie-of-the-Year.
The choices are Jeremy Heremida, Prince Fielder, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Cain and Somebody Else. The leader amongst his readers is Hermida at 32% followed by Prince Fielder at 21%. Cain and Zimmerman garner 13% each and Somebody Else gets 19%.
My rationale was based on a combination of which ones I think will have the best seasons and how the their teams will do. I expect Cain's Giants to be the best and Hermida's Marlins to be the worst. Fielder's Brewers will finish second and Zimmerman's Nationals third.
I also believe Fielder will have the worst AVG (.250ish). This will seriously handicap his chances of winning, and I belive Zimmerman's numbers were be hampered by RFK Stadium (HR and AVG).
Jeremy Hermida will have the best 4X4 numbers and garner a lot of attention.
Matt Cain will have very good stats for a rookie pitcher (High 3s ERa with 150+ strikeouts) and be on a play-off contending team.
As such, I chose Matt Cain despite preferring Hermida for my Roto team.
The choices are Jeremy Heremida, Prince Fielder, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Cain and Somebody Else. The leader amongst his readers is Hermida at 32% followed by Prince Fielder at 21%. Cain and Zimmerman garner 13% each and Somebody Else gets 19%.
My rationale was based on a combination of which ones I think will have the best seasons and how the their teams will do. I expect Cain's Giants to be the best and Hermida's Marlins to be the worst. Fielder's Brewers will finish second and Zimmerman's Nationals third.
I also believe Fielder will have the worst AVG (.250ish). This will seriously handicap his chances of winning, and I belive Zimmerman's numbers were be hampered by RFK Stadium (HR and AVG).
Jeremy Hermida will have the best 4X4 numbers and garner a lot of attention.
Matt Cain will have very good stats for a rookie pitcher (High 3s ERa with 150+ strikeouts) and be on a play-off contending team.
As such, I chose Matt Cain despite preferring Hermida for my Roto team.
Baltimore Orioles
An off-season in which the team gives all apearances of disarray could be a good thing come draft day. Many of their productive players will go for less than they should - Miguel Tejada excepted.
Jay Gibbons pops out. He was surprisingly good last season - 26/79/.277. Yes, he hit .277 which is a positive for AVG. A three category hitter could be expected to go for $25+ in a typical league. I do not see that happening as long as he is an Oriole (and possibiliy ever!)
The first impressions Gibbons made was a player with power and a poor AVG as demonstraed in his first two seasons (15/36/.236 in his rookie year and 28/69/.247.) He broke out in 2003 but regressed in an injury-plagued 2004, cementing the initial impressions.
But he returned to his 2003 AVG in 2005 leading me to believe he has established a new level of performance. (Recall he was a Rule 5 player and learned on the job his first couple seasons.)
I expect him to be a "veteran sleeper" and a solid #2 OF or co-#1 with a similar player. (Def of veteran sleeper: an everyday player who produces consistently but never makes an All-Star team. Value $17-$24. Or previously defined here for Preston Wilson - a player who goes for $15-$24 because he is no longer surrounded by hype but still produces.)
If the O's obtain Cory Patterson, I do not expect him to be a sleeper as his SB totals will cause any AL league to respond Pavlovianally - immediately bid him to the high $20s and that is no bargain for 4X4 favorite CPat. That said, I personally like him and wish the Yanks had tried him in CF. One thing his detractors (everyone but me) fail to note is this year will be his 27 one and that means highest likelihood of a career year!
On the pitching side, I hold out hope that Erik Bedard's poor return from injury knocks him far enough down draft lists that he can be had for $7-$13. If so, then I can see him having a very good risk/reward profile. This will be wholely dependent on the maintenance of his improved walk rate. Even if he does not, he will maintain his trade value based solely upon the gushing of scouts.
In the bullpen, Chris Ray is already everyone's "sleeper" to close, but the one to watch is 2005 nightmare, Jorge Julio. His numbers were horrific, but the O's did bring in Leo Mazzone and he could help Julio return to his previous level of production. If that is the case, I expect Julio to open the season as the closer and to hold it until he is either traded or the 2006 season ends.
Nick Markakis is the prospect to watch and grab either in your minor league draft or immediately after he is recalled. His walk rates are excellent and his combo of power and speed make me believe he will have a HR/SB season like Alexis Rios' 2005 campaign. He may not be a sleeper come Opening Day, but his future is bright enough to merit mention right now.
Jay Gibbons pops out. He was surprisingly good last season - 26/79/.277. Yes, he hit .277 which is a positive for AVG. A three category hitter could be expected to go for $25+ in a typical league. I do not see that happening as long as he is an Oriole (and possibiliy ever!)
The first impressions Gibbons made was a player with power and a poor AVG as demonstraed in his first two seasons (15/36/.236 in his rookie year and 28/69/.247.) He broke out in 2003 but regressed in an injury-plagued 2004, cementing the initial impressions.
But he returned to his 2003 AVG in 2005 leading me to believe he has established a new level of performance. (Recall he was a Rule 5 player and learned on the job his first couple seasons.)
I expect him to be a "veteran sleeper" and a solid #2 OF or co-#1 with a similar player. (Def of veteran sleeper: an everyday player who produces consistently but never makes an All-Star team. Value $17-$24. Or previously defined here for Preston Wilson - a player who goes for $15-$24 because he is no longer surrounded by hype but still produces.)
If the O's obtain Cory Patterson, I do not expect him to be a sleeper as his SB totals will cause any AL league to respond Pavlovianally - immediately bid him to the high $20s and that is no bargain for 4X4 favorite CPat. That said, I personally like him and wish the Yanks had tried him in CF. One thing his detractors (everyone but me) fail to note is this year will be his 27 one and that means highest likelihood of a career year!
On the pitching side, I hold out hope that Erik Bedard's poor return from injury knocks him far enough down draft lists that he can be had for $7-$13. If so, then I can see him having a very good risk/reward profile. This will be wholely dependent on the maintenance of his improved walk rate. Even if he does not, he will maintain his trade value based solely upon the gushing of scouts.
In the bullpen, Chris Ray is already everyone's "sleeper" to close, but the one to watch is 2005 nightmare, Jorge Julio. His numbers were horrific, but the O's did bring in Leo Mazzone and he could help Julio return to his previous level of production. If that is the case, I expect Julio to open the season as the closer and to hold it until he is either traded or the 2006 season ends.
Nick Markakis is the prospect to watch and grab either in your minor league draft or immediately after he is recalled. His walk rates are excellent and his combo of power and speed make me believe he will have a HR/SB season like Alexis Rios' 2005 campaign. He may not be a sleeper come Opening Day, but his future is bright enough to merit mention right now.
Friday, January 06, 2006
Toronto Blue Jays
The most remarkable thing about the Jays as currently constituted is the excess of corner/DH types. Glaus, Overbay and Hillenbrand are the three that I expect will get most of the ABs. Fortunately for both Hinske and Koskie, they bat from the left side of the plate and could see ABs against right-handers.
With the trade of Orlando Hudson, Aaron Hill is the regular 2B entering the season. I expect him to match OHud's 4X4 production (10/60/5/.270). As a starting middle infielder, that puts his draft day salary in the $9-$17 range. Obviously, he slots at the lower end, but my experience has demonstrated that any available starter up the middle could go in the higher teens.
A player who could be poised to breakout this season is Alexis Rios. The past two seasons, he has stolen 15 and 14 bases. There is no reason to expect that to change in 2006. He could steal 20 with very slight improvement. (A success rate somewhere between his 2004 (86%) and his 2005 (61%) in the same number of 2005 attempts (23) would put him at 17.)
His 10 HR last season nearly matched his minor league high of 11. If he improves on 2005, he could see 15, and 15 HR and 20 SB is a very good Roto player ($17-25).
The closer role is set for the next few seasons with the signing of BJ Ryan. If he gets hurt, I'd expect a return the JP's hodgepodge closing mix with Speier and Frasor the leading candidates.
Josh Towers was surprisingly good last season. After several seasons of disappointing Roto results, he kept everything together to post an ERA of 3.71 and a WHIP of 1.27 in 200+ innings. His minor league K/BB ratio always kept him on the radar and, in 2003, his 1.15 WHIP with the O's teased Roto players into listing him as a sleeper for 2004. Unfortunately, he was Roto death then (5.11/1.50).
This bad taste colored his 2005 season. Some of that will linger into 2006 and will make Towers an undervalued pitcher on draft day.
With the trade of Orlando Hudson, Aaron Hill is the regular 2B entering the season. I expect him to match OHud's 4X4 production (10/60/5/.270). As a starting middle infielder, that puts his draft day salary in the $9-$17 range. Obviously, he slots at the lower end, but my experience has demonstrated that any available starter up the middle could go in the higher teens.
A player who could be poised to breakout this season is Alexis Rios. The past two seasons, he has stolen 15 and 14 bases. There is no reason to expect that to change in 2006. He could steal 20 with very slight improvement. (A success rate somewhere between his 2004 (86%) and his 2005 (61%) in the same number of 2005 attempts (23) would put him at 17.)
His 10 HR last season nearly matched his minor league high of 11. If he improves on 2005, he could see 15, and 15 HR and 20 SB is a very good Roto player ($17-25).
The closer role is set for the next few seasons with the signing of BJ Ryan. If he gets hurt, I'd expect a return the JP's hodgepodge closing mix with Speier and Frasor the leading candidates.
Josh Towers was surprisingly good last season. After several seasons of disappointing Roto results, he kept everything together to post an ERA of 3.71 and a WHIP of 1.27 in 200+ innings. His minor league K/BB ratio always kept him on the radar and, in 2003, his 1.15 WHIP with the O's teased Roto players into listing him as a sleeper for 2004. Unfortunately, he was Roto death then (5.11/1.50).
This bad taste colored his 2005 season. Some of that will linger into 2006 and will make Towers an undervalued pitcher on draft day.
Thursday, January 05, 2006
Jay Payton
He did well last year after griping his way out of Boston. I'd expect him to do the same this season given 400 ABs. (Produce not gripe.)
What worries me is whether Oakland will keep him all year with such a poor OBP. I know the A's have shifted towards defense but could the organization really suffer through a .310 OBP without exploring trade options with other teams who like his 4X4 numbers better?
Couldn't a good defensive OF with better OBP and a cheaper salary be found?
What worries me is whether Oakland will keep him all year with such a poor OBP. I know the A's have shifted towards defense but could the organization really suffer through a .310 OBP without exploring trade options with other teams who like his 4X4 numbers better?
Couldn't a good defensive OF with better OBP and a cheaper salary be found?
Boston Red Sox
This thumbnail sketch is a little more difficult as the team has glaring holes at SS and CF. 1B is also very much up in the air, but the Sawx currently have Kevin Youkilis, the Moneyball-epitathed God of Walks.
The Sawx claim he will develop 20 HR power. Maybe. He will be 27 on Opening Day and has never hit more than 10 HRs in any season. However, if his last two seasons were pro-rated over 600 ABs, his totals would have put him in the 20 HR range. Plus, OBP has been decent, admittedly in very few ABs.
One caveat, though, is that tiny number of ABs garnered as a Red Sock. He had 208 ABs in 2004 and only 78 last seson! I think he is at risk for over-exposure, and the question remains whether the Sawx will weather the adjustment period necessary for Youkilis to breakthrough, if he can at all.
I can see the team struggling with a powerless 1B and making a move to remedy that. Obviously, this makes Youkilis a risky Roto proposition if he goes for a $10+ in a draft.
Right now, his back-up is the Rob Neyer favorite, Roberto Petagine. At 35, there isn't much long-term Roto value, but he could be a better $1 gamble than Youkilis for 8+ times that amount. He has been an OBP machine everywhere, and I suspect he would contunie to do so in whatever ABs the Sawx give him. The only thing going against him is Youkilis is 8 years younger and teams are prone to love projectability over current ability.
If Youkilis struggles with regular ABs, then Petagine will get a full-time chance. And if the Sawx search for a trade alternative takes a couple weeks and Roberto is hot, he could be a great $1 corner on a successful 2006 Roto squad.
Jon Papelbon looks like he is going to be a highly-hyped SP going into 2006. He should be a good risk for a handful of dollars. His strikeouts were good but he walked way too many batters in his 34 inning debut last season. Putting 4.50 men on base via walk every 9 innings has all the making of disaster. However, his walk rates were very good in the minors.
My guesstimate would be a season somewhere between Scott Kazmir's 2004 and 2005 seasons - an ERA in the mid-4s and a WHIP over 1.40. Not great, but encouraging. However, a 1.40+ WHIP in 175 innings is a killer on a team's WHIP. I would target him if I were a bailing team.
Craig Hansen has generated a lot of futrue-closer hype and deservedly so, but I do not see him getting a chance until late in the year - at best. Foulke will be given the opportunity to reclaim the roll he has excelled in with Mike Timlin backing-up.
A sleeper minor leaguer is Brandon Moss. His star has faded some after a mediocre AA season, but he was only 21. His opportunity to contribute late heavily depends on what the Sawx do with their CF opening. The longer the Opening Day CF is signed, the lesser the chance of Moss getting any shot in 2006. If he opens 2006 ripping the cover off the ball in AAA, then only an OF injury keeps him from a cup of coffee.
While Dustin Pedroia gets most of the rookie hype this spring and Jacoby Ellsbury occupies most of the future-CF talk do not forget Moss.
The Sawx claim he will develop 20 HR power. Maybe. He will be 27 on Opening Day and has never hit more than 10 HRs in any season. However, if his last two seasons were pro-rated over 600 ABs, his totals would have put him in the 20 HR range. Plus, OBP has been decent, admittedly in very few ABs.
One caveat, though, is that tiny number of ABs garnered as a Red Sock. He had 208 ABs in 2004 and only 78 last seson! I think he is at risk for over-exposure, and the question remains whether the Sawx will weather the adjustment period necessary for Youkilis to breakthrough, if he can at all.
I can see the team struggling with a powerless 1B and making a move to remedy that. Obviously, this makes Youkilis a risky Roto proposition if he goes for a $10+ in a draft.
Right now, his back-up is the Rob Neyer favorite, Roberto Petagine. At 35, there isn't much long-term Roto value, but he could be a better $1 gamble than Youkilis for 8+ times that amount. He has been an OBP machine everywhere, and I suspect he would contunie to do so in whatever ABs the Sawx give him. The only thing going against him is Youkilis is 8 years younger and teams are prone to love projectability over current ability.
If Youkilis struggles with regular ABs, then Petagine will get a full-time chance. And if the Sawx search for a trade alternative takes a couple weeks and Roberto is hot, he could be a great $1 corner on a successful 2006 Roto squad.
Jon Papelbon looks like he is going to be a highly-hyped SP going into 2006. He should be a good risk for a handful of dollars. His strikeouts were good but he walked way too many batters in his 34 inning debut last season. Putting 4.50 men on base via walk every 9 innings has all the making of disaster. However, his walk rates were very good in the minors.
My guesstimate would be a season somewhere between Scott Kazmir's 2004 and 2005 seasons - an ERA in the mid-4s and a WHIP over 1.40. Not great, but encouraging. However, a 1.40+ WHIP in 175 innings is a killer on a team's WHIP. I would target him if I were a bailing team.
Craig Hansen has generated a lot of futrue-closer hype and deservedly so, but I do not see him getting a chance until late in the year - at best. Foulke will be given the opportunity to reclaim the roll he has excelled in with Mike Timlin backing-up.
A sleeper minor leaguer is Brandon Moss. His star has faded some after a mediocre AA season, but he was only 21. His opportunity to contribute late heavily depends on what the Sawx do with their CF opening. The longer the Opening Day CF is signed, the lesser the chance of Moss getting any shot in 2006. If he opens 2006 ripping the cover off the ball in AAA, then only an OF injury keeps him from a cup of coffee.
While Dustin Pedroia gets most of the rookie hype this spring and Jacoby Ellsbury occupies most of the future-CF talk do not forget Moss.
Wednesday, January 04, 2006
New York Yankees
Today begins my thumbnail sketching of each team and what I see as good risks for 2006. Occasionally, I will cast an eye towards 2007 and beyond and will generally stay away from commenting on obvious Roto studs like ARod.
Where I will focus is possible breakout candidates, closer prospects and players who should be valuable members of a 14 hitters / 9 pitchers Roto squad.
What that means is a player who makes the bottom half of your team stronger as all Roto players can build half a team based solely on past performance.
On offense, I do not see any breakout candidates for 2006. Robinson Cano broke out last season hitting .297 with 14 HR. I expect no one to be taken by surprise this season. Nor do I expect him in too many draft pools as his pool salary from last season likely guarantees he will be protected through the length of his contract and possibly re-upped after that.
What is notable is his 14 HR as a Yankee matched his professional high and his 62 RBI nearly did so (14/66 in Single A Greensboro in 2002.) If you combine his AAA numbers, he set highs in each (18/86).
That is the surprising fact about Cano and is the reason why I expect him to maintain whatever value he had in 2005 with the possibility of slight improvement in 2006. He should hit a couple more HRs, but I do not see him driving in too many more runs as he will hit near the bottom of the order with noted OBP-men like Jason Giambi and Jorge Posada in front of him.
If Cano were available in a draft, I would not hesitate to pay in the high teens for him.
Andy Phillips is nominally the back-up at 1B. Being behind Giambi would normally lead me to conclude he will play frequently as Giambi's glove is lacking, but I recall Giambi played almost everyday at 1B last season as he ripped through the second half.
Also, given Torre's man-love for Bernie and Bern's inability to field a position, Bernie will get most of the DH ABs which will contribute to Giambi being at 1B everyday. This leaves Phillips as a Homer Bush-esque Yankee but with no speed. (In 1998, Bush spent the season with the Yanks and garnered 76 plate appearances.)
What could happen though, is the Yanks cut Phillips lose or trade him mid-season and bring up Eric Duncan, a propsect who looks like he may actually play for the Yankees some day as an inexpensive player. He is justed turned 21 in December, won the AFL MVP and will be in AAA Columbus to start the 2006 season.
All it would take is an injury, most obviously to Bernie to free up DH, and a good start in AAA, and he will be up and in-line to make a Cano-like contribution. Watch him.
Where I will focus is possible breakout candidates, closer prospects and players who should be valuable members of a 14 hitters / 9 pitchers Roto squad.
What that means is a player who makes the bottom half of your team stronger as all Roto players can build half a team based solely on past performance.
On offense, I do not see any breakout candidates for 2006. Robinson Cano broke out last season hitting .297 with 14 HR. I expect no one to be taken by surprise this season. Nor do I expect him in too many draft pools as his pool salary from last season likely guarantees he will be protected through the length of his contract and possibly re-upped after that.
What is notable is his 14 HR as a Yankee matched his professional high and his 62 RBI nearly did so (14/66 in Single A Greensboro in 2002.) If you combine his AAA numbers, he set highs in each (18/86).
That is the surprising fact about Cano and is the reason why I expect him to maintain whatever value he had in 2005 with the possibility of slight improvement in 2006. He should hit a couple more HRs, but I do not see him driving in too many more runs as he will hit near the bottom of the order with noted OBP-men like Jason Giambi and Jorge Posada in front of him.
If Cano were available in a draft, I would not hesitate to pay in the high teens for him.
Andy Phillips is nominally the back-up at 1B. Being behind Giambi would normally lead me to conclude he will play frequently as Giambi's glove is lacking, but I recall Giambi played almost everyday at 1B last season as he ripped through the second half.
Also, given Torre's man-love for Bernie and Bern's inability to field a position, Bernie will get most of the DH ABs which will contribute to Giambi being at 1B everyday. This leaves Phillips as a Homer Bush-esque Yankee but with no speed. (In 1998, Bush spent the season with the Yanks and garnered 76 plate appearances.)
What could happen though, is the Yanks cut Phillips lose or trade him mid-season and bring up Eric Duncan, a propsect who looks like he may actually play for the Yankees some day as an inexpensive player. He is justed turned 21 in December, won the AFL MVP and will be in AAA Columbus to start the 2006 season.
All it would take is an injury, most obviously to Bernie to free up DH, and a good start in AAA, and he will be up and in-line to make a Cano-like contribution. Watch him.
Tuesday, January 03, 2006
Mayonaisse has zero carbs!
Dave Pinto has a post stating Preston Wilson is no better than Wily Tavares based on thier 2005 win shares total.
My initial thought was how did a player whose main attribute is getting on-base via hits that don't travel 90' better than a 7-year veteran who has consistently performed at an All-Star level (assuming his team stinks and hosts the game)?
As I am as statistically knowledgable as anyone (more so as I have had several courses in statistics on the college level - undergrad and graduate,) I first decided to examine what goes into a "win share".
Talk about assumptions! There are enough there to make so many asses that the word will be spelled "ass" because the world would run out of people before all the assumptions were exhausted!
As a general rule-of-thumb, win shares allows for quick comparison between two players. (Although I imagine the quickness in calculating it only arrived with the Excel spreadsheet.) It is when it is used as an absolute that its usefulness becomes strained.
The first assumption is assigning a relative value to the contribution of hitting and pitching/defense to a win. My nihilistic side told me I need not go any further before concluding that win shares is a tool no more valuable than any of the other time-tested statistics that make up your typical 4X4 Roto league.
Advanced quantitification seems to be a sure fire way into a front office, but it does not negate Occum's razor or parsimony. It may make one more impressive in a job interview or in a discussion with other Roto players who are not versed in statistical calculations, but unless it tells me something above and beyond what other simpler percentages and ratios do, then count me unimpressed.
No matter what you say a singles hitter is not better than a HR hitter just as you cannot convince me that having zero-carbs makes mayonaisse a health food!
My initial thought was how did a player whose main attribute is getting on-base via hits that don't travel 90' better than a 7-year veteran who has consistently performed at an All-Star level (assuming his team stinks and hosts the game)?
As I am as statistically knowledgable as anyone (more so as I have had several courses in statistics on the college level - undergrad and graduate,) I first decided to examine what goes into a "win share".
Talk about assumptions! There are enough there to make so many asses that the word will be spelled "ass" because the world would run out of people before all the assumptions were exhausted!
As a general rule-of-thumb, win shares allows for quick comparison between two players. (Although I imagine the quickness in calculating it only arrived with the Excel spreadsheet.) It is when it is used as an absolute that its usefulness becomes strained.
The first assumption is assigning a relative value to the contribution of hitting and pitching/defense to a win. My nihilistic side told me I need not go any further before concluding that win shares is a tool no more valuable than any of the other time-tested statistics that make up your typical 4X4 Roto league.
Advanced quantitification seems to be a sure fire way into a front office, but it does not negate Occum's razor or parsimony. It may make one more impressive in a job interview or in a discussion with other Roto players who are not versed in statistical calculations, but unless it tells me something above and beyond what other simpler percentages and ratios do, then count me unimpressed.
No matter what you say a singles hitter is not better than a HR hitter just as you cannot convince me that having zero-carbs makes mayonaisse a health food!
Jeremy Burnitz
Baltimore couldn't restrain their enthusiasm and had to leak they were on the brink of signing Jeremy Burnitz. And now they have lost him to the Pirates!
That will teach the Pirates a lesson in listening to rumors!
At least Burnitz should hit some HRs. Jason Bay must have been thrilled to hear he would be protected by someone with double digit power!
That will teach the Pirates a lesson in listening to rumors!
At least Burnitz should hit some HRs. Jason Bay must have been thrilled to hear he would be protected by someone with double digit power!
Monday, January 02, 2006
Jeremy Bonderman
Three off-seasons ago, I targeted three players to take in my minor league draft - Victor Martinez, Jeremy Bonderman and Rich Harden. As I had the top 2 picks and had settled on VMart #1, the question was who to take between Harden and Bonderman.
The Tigers were good to me as they kept Bonderman up with the big boys, and I ended up with Vmart and Harden #s 1 and 2.
After three seasons, VMart and Harden have clearly been better than Bonderman. The question is whether or not Bonderman will breakthrough this year with the type of Roto season that will make him an integral part of a winning team i.e. $25 value for half the price.
He just turned 23 at the end of October. This works in his favor as the perception exists that he has been around for a while and is therefore older than he really is. He has also been hyped for three seasons, and there is likely to exist some fatigue with the hype. This will heavily influence his draft day salary and keep it in the very low double digits/high single digits.
Statistically, there is support for improved performance. His ERA has improved each year. This also bodes well in spite of a strike out rate bouncing around. At his age, I will give the benefit of the doubt and claim he has learned to pitch to contact versus trying to overpower every hitter (more hits and fewer walks support this.)
Also in his favor is the signing of Kenny Rogers, who will be the #1 starter. The pressure to be the ace will abate and could allow Bondy to take the next step.
While I do not expect Bonderman to reach the level Rich Harden has, I would not be surprised if he makes a VMart for Bonderman trade a possibility some time in 2006. And that is defintely a risk I would be willing to take.
The Tigers were good to me as they kept Bonderman up with the big boys, and I ended up with Vmart and Harden #s 1 and 2.
After three seasons, VMart and Harden have clearly been better than Bonderman. The question is whether or not Bonderman will breakthrough this year with the type of Roto season that will make him an integral part of a winning team i.e. $25 value for half the price.
He just turned 23 at the end of October. This works in his favor as the perception exists that he has been around for a while and is therefore older than he really is. He has also been hyped for three seasons, and there is likely to exist some fatigue with the hype. This will heavily influence his draft day salary and keep it in the very low double digits/high single digits.
Statistically, there is support for improved performance. His ERA has improved each year. This also bodes well in spite of a strike out rate bouncing around. At his age, I will give the benefit of the doubt and claim he has learned to pitch to contact versus trying to overpower every hitter (more hits and fewer walks support this.)
Also in his favor is the signing of Kenny Rogers, who will be the #1 starter. The pressure to be the ace will abate and could allow Bondy to take the next step.
While I do not expect Bonderman to reach the level Rich Harden has, I would not be surprised if he makes a VMart for Bonderman trade a possibility some time in 2006. And that is defintely a risk I would be willing to take.
Sunday, January 01, 2006
Wes Helms
What better way to kick the new year than with a post about Wes Helms.
He just signed with the Florida Marlins.
The questions about him are three-fold. 1st, can he still play? The Brewers gave him a two-year, $5 million contract after his breakout 2003 season. Clearly, they thought he'd remain at that level.
Two seasons later, the Brewers let him become a free agent with no effort made to bring him back. This decision was likely made very early in 2005 as Ned Yost gave him little time in the field and used him almost exclusively as a pinch hitter. However, Helms did very well in that role, which leads me to believe Helms can still play.
The second question is whether or not he will get enough ABs to be a valuable Roto player. My intuition says he will because there just aren't enough players as accomplished as he is on the Marlins roster. The only one to hit more than his 2003 HR total of 23 is Miguel Cabrera. My guess is I could have stated "more career HRs than his 2003 HR total" but why give a more complex explanation when a simpler one will do?
Thirdly, where would he get the ABs? 3B! The major complication here is the Marlins decided to move Cabrera to third last season. However, I wonder whether the fire sale changed that scenario. As of now, Jeremy Hermida is the starting CF, but there is no one in either left or right if Cabrera plays 3B. Even if Cabrera remains in RF, the Fish would still be lacking a LF.
Because of this, I suspsect Helms will play 3B and Cabrera will remain in RF. However, just as Helms, Borowski and Reese saw the chance to recover their reputations in South Florida, I would not be surprised to see an OF make the same decision. But for this to change my scenario, two washed-up OFs must sign there. I do not see that right now.
Wes Helms will get 400 ABs and will return to a respectable Roto level - 15 HR, 50 RBI and an AVG in the .260 range.
He just signed with the Florida Marlins.
The questions about him are three-fold. 1st, can he still play? The Brewers gave him a two-year, $5 million contract after his breakout 2003 season. Clearly, they thought he'd remain at that level.
Two seasons later, the Brewers let him become a free agent with no effort made to bring him back. This decision was likely made very early in 2005 as Ned Yost gave him little time in the field and used him almost exclusively as a pinch hitter. However, Helms did very well in that role, which leads me to believe Helms can still play.
The second question is whether or not he will get enough ABs to be a valuable Roto player. My intuition says he will because there just aren't enough players as accomplished as he is on the Marlins roster. The only one to hit more than his 2003 HR total of 23 is Miguel Cabrera. My guess is I could have stated "more career HRs than his 2003 HR total" but why give a more complex explanation when a simpler one will do?
Thirdly, where would he get the ABs? 3B! The major complication here is the Marlins decided to move Cabrera to third last season. However, I wonder whether the fire sale changed that scenario. As of now, Jeremy Hermida is the starting CF, but there is no one in either left or right if Cabrera plays 3B. Even if Cabrera remains in RF, the Fish would still be lacking a LF.
Because of this, I suspsect Helms will play 3B and Cabrera will remain in RF. However, just as Helms, Borowski and Reese saw the chance to recover their reputations in South Florida, I would not be surprised to see an OF make the same decision. But for this to change my scenario, two washed-up OFs must sign there. I do not see that right now.
Wes Helms will get 400 ABs and will return to a respectable Roto level - 15 HR, 50 RBI and an AVG in the .260 range.
Saturday, December 31, 2005
2006 NL Trend
Last season saw the emergence of the new crop of pitching studs. This season, the new crop of catching studs will become apparent.
In Atlanta, Brian McCann takes over full-time after making the jump from AA to the majors - at 21-years-old. In another situation that makes the NL East feel the Braves have the blessings of a higher power, one of the top Braves prospects is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a catcher with power and plate discipline
Forida's firesale has provided Josh Willingham the opportunity to play significant innings behind the plate (definition: making enough appearances to qualify at catcher for the 2007 season.) The team also signed Miguel Olivo who should finally get the chance to show that speed he displayed, and the reason Roto owners have been waiting added him to their team, since his AA season in 2002 when he stole 29. Remember, despite this unfulfilled expectation, he has stolen 6, 7, and 7 bases the past three seasons. Matching that would make him more valuable than a $1 end-of-draft filler.
Speaking of that, the Mets' Ramon Castro should be an excellent 2nd catcher. His exposure will remain similar to last season where he out-performed the Mets latest catching edition, Paul LoDuca:
Castro: 29 years-old 209 ABs 8 HR 41 RBI .244 AVG .321 OBP .435 SLG
LoDuca: 34 years-old 445 ABS 6 HR 57 RBI .283 AVG .334 OBP .380 SLG
St. Louis saw 23-year-old Yadier Molina adequately replaced the offensive production of the pre-SF Matt Matheny.
Pitsburgh has Humberto Cota who matched the aforementioned @005 goodie, Damian Miller, in his first extended playing time. Ryan Doumit was also impressive in his first call-up last season.
The Dodgers Dioner Navarro did well last season as a 22-year-old in his (this should be familiar) first extended playing time as a major leaguer. And right behind him is the player Billy Beane had hoped Jeremy Brown would have been, Russ Martin (.311 AVG, .430 OBP in 409 official ABs).
Colorado dealt a Rule 5 pick for Yorvit Torrealba. He seems to have been bouncing around forever, but he is only 27 years old. Colorado should make him a decent #1 catcher come draft day. Because of this, he is likely to be the most over-valued, too. Think JD Closser, who may improve with more carefully managed ABs.
What this means is there is reason to enter next year's draft needing to draft a catcher or two because there should be equivalent production in the pool as that being protected (Jason LaRue, Paul Loduca, Mike Lieberthal, Damian Miller, Michael Barrett, Brian Schneider). It also means one of these young receivers will be cheap and result in good bail bait later in the season.
Javier Valentin did not make this list because he is already 30-years-old, but I like him as a very good 2nd catcher, and if he repeats his 2005 numbers, a #1. However, he is stuck behind Jason LaRue and cannot be reasonably be expected to get many more ABs than he did last year - severally limiting his upside potential.
In Atlanta, Brian McCann takes over full-time after making the jump from AA to the majors - at 21-years-old. In another situation that makes the NL East feel the Braves have the blessings of a higher power, one of the top Braves prospects is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a catcher with power and plate discipline
Forida's firesale has provided Josh Willingham the opportunity to play significant innings behind the plate (definition: making enough appearances to qualify at catcher for the 2007 season.) The team also signed Miguel Olivo who should finally get the chance to show that speed he displayed, and the reason Roto owners have been waiting added him to their team, since his AA season in 2002 when he stole 29. Remember, despite this unfulfilled expectation, he has stolen 6, 7, and 7 bases the past three seasons. Matching that would make him more valuable than a $1 end-of-draft filler.
Speaking of that, the Mets' Ramon Castro should be an excellent 2nd catcher. His exposure will remain similar to last season where he out-performed the Mets latest catching edition, Paul LoDuca:
Castro: 29 years-old 209 ABs 8 HR 41 RBI .244 AVG .321 OBP .435 SLG
LoDuca: 34 years-old 445 ABS 6 HR 57 RBI .283 AVG .334 OBP .380 SLG
St. Louis saw 23-year-old Yadier Molina adequately replaced the offensive production of the pre-SF Matt Matheny.
Pitsburgh has Humberto Cota who matched the aforementioned @005 goodie, Damian Miller, in his first extended playing time. Ryan Doumit was also impressive in his first call-up last season.
The Dodgers Dioner Navarro did well last season as a 22-year-old in his (this should be familiar) first extended playing time as a major leaguer. And right behind him is the player Billy Beane had hoped Jeremy Brown would have been, Russ Martin (.311 AVG, .430 OBP in 409 official ABs).
Colorado dealt a Rule 5 pick for Yorvit Torrealba. He seems to have been bouncing around forever, but he is only 27 years old. Colorado should make him a decent #1 catcher come draft day. Because of this, he is likely to be the most over-valued, too. Think JD Closser, who may improve with more carefully managed ABs.
What this means is there is reason to enter next year's draft needing to draft a catcher or two because there should be equivalent production in the pool as that being protected (Jason LaRue, Paul Loduca, Mike Lieberthal, Damian Miller, Michael Barrett, Brian Schneider). It also means one of these young receivers will be cheap and result in good bail bait later in the season.
Javier Valentin did not make this list because he is already 30-years-old, but I like him as a very good 2nd catcher, and if he repeats his 2005 numbers, a #1. However, he is stuck behind Jason LaRue and cannot be reasonably be expected to get many more ABs than he did last year - severally limiting his upside potential.
Friday, December 30, 2005
NL Catchers
Damian Miller was one of the best catchers in the NL last season.
Declarative sentences like that should make teams shutter because it is true.
His .273 AVG was 4th after such luminaries as Ramon Hernandez, Michael Barrett and Paul LoDoca.
His 9 HR put him in the middle of the pack, which ranged from a high of Mike Piazza's 19 to zero.
Given Piazza's 62 RBI was tops at the postion, Miller's 43 runs drive in is very good. (Yes, Piazza was still a very top receiver in the NL last season.)
With this relative performance in mind, be prepared for Miller's owner to try to sell him based on his relative merits. He would likely be one of the top catchers available at NL drafts, but why pay for him based on that?
After all, Humberto Cota hit 7 HR and drove in 43 in fewer ABs, and he is 10 years younger. Not to mention last season was his first extended MLB action. It would be reasonable to expect slight improvement, and that is all it would take to surpass Miller.
I would also expect Brian McCann and Dioner Navarro,along with Josh Willingham, o surpass Miller's production. Not to mention the Met's Ramon Castro was equally effective in limited ABs.
So don't overpay for Miller based on his relatively postive performance in 2005. I expect him to go for no more than a few dollars at draft time.
Of course, I don't expect any catchers to go for more than $15 regardless.
Declarative sentences like that should make teams shutter because it is true.
His .273 AVG was 4th after such luminaries as Ramon Hernandez, Michael Barrett and Paul LoDoca.
His 9 HR put him in the middle of the pack, which ranged from a high of Mike Piazza's 19 to zero.
Given Piazza's 62 RBI was tops at the postion, Miller's 43 runs drive in is very good. (Yes, Piazza was still a very top receiver in the NL last season.)
With this relative performance in mind, be prepared for Miller's owner to try to sell him based on his relative merits. He would likely be one of the top catchers available at NL drafts, but why pay for him based on that?
After all, Humberto Cota hit 7 HR and drove in 43 in fewer ABs, and he is 10 years younger. Not to mention last season was his first extended MLB action. It would be reasonable to expect slight improvement, and that is all it would take to surpass Miller.
I would also expect Brian McCann and Dioner Navarro,along with Josh Willingham, o surpass Miller's production. Not to mention the Met's Ramon Castro was equally effective in limited ABs.
So don't overpay for Miller based on his relatively postive performance in 2005. I expect him to go for no more than a few dollars at draft time.
Of course, I don't expect any catchers to go for more than $15 regardless.
Thursday, December 29, 2005
Preston Wilson
P-Dubya is a player I have always considered over-rated. He had a stunning 2000 when he went 36/31 with 121 RBI, but his .264 AVG bothered me.
He remained at the 20/20 level for the next couple seasons and was then shipped out to Colorado where he had a truly great Roto season thanks to a Coors-inflated, injury-free.282 AVG. In all these seasons, he was a $30 player.
In 2004, he hurt every Roto team because he was likely protected at his 2003 price and was injured all season (6 HR in 202 ABs).
In 2005, he went for $25. It thought it was still too high. He entered last season and seemed to attract trade rumors from the opening pitch. As a result, I never really considered him.
Once he was dealt to Washington, I completely wrote him off figuring his power would plummet.
And so here I am considering what the Red Sox will do about CF, and P-Dub came to mind. He seems a good fit - a veteran who won't command a long contract. I then checked his numbers and was surpirsed to see his 2005 season was in line with his careeer numbers (minus SB) -25/90/.260.
A steal if the Red Sox can get him and a likely veteran sleeper for Roto.
A veteran sleeper being a player who goes for $15-$24 because he is no longer surrounded by hype but still produces.
He remained at the 20/20 level for the next couple seasons and was then shipped out to Colorado where he had a truly great Roto season thanks to a Coors-inflated, injury-free.282 AVG. In all these seasons, he was a $30 player.
In 2004, he hurt every Roto team because he was likely protected at his 2003 price and was injured all season (6 HR in 202 ABs).
In 2005, he went for $25. It thought it was still too high. He entered last season and seemed to attract trade rumors from the opening pitch. As a result, I never really considered him.
Once he was dealt to Washington, I completely wrote him off figuring his power would plummet.
And so here I am considering what the Red Sox will do about CF, and P-Dub came to mind. He seems a good fit - a veteran who won't command a long contract. I then checked his numbers and was surpirsed to see his 2005 season was in line with his careeer numbers (minus SB) -25/90/.260.
A steal if the Red Sox can get him and a likely veteran sleeper for Roto.
A veteran sleeper being a player who goes for $15-$24 because he is no longer surrounded by hype but still produces.
Burnitz
Two years, $5 million per?
What is wrong with the Orioles? Why won't anyone take their money? I don't know, and sense even if I did, the Os wouldn't care.
Rototimes has Jeff Conine listed at 1B. He will be in the running for the 2006 Worst Power from 1B with Kevin Youkilis.
Walter Young should be given 200 ABs. If he sinks, then let Conine garner the ABs. Otherwise, put the big man there and let him swing away.
What is wrong with the Orioles? Why won't anyone take their money? I don't know, and sense even if I did, the Os wouldn't care.
Rototimes has Jeff Conine listed at 1B. He will be in the running for the 2006 Worst Power from 1B with Kevin Youkilis.
Walter Young should be given 200 ABs. If he sinks, then let Conine garner the ABs. Otherwise, put the big man there and let him swing away.
Wednesday, December 28, 2005
Craig Counsell
He is going to move to shortstop with the acquistion of Gold Glove 2B Orlando Hudson.
Unfortunately, he won't be there for long. (Given the fact he played full-time last year, i suspect he will play there longer than he should.)
Stephen Drew is on the way and that will leave Counsell with very limited ABs, and that is too bad. After years and years of an unexplicably long careeer, he finally put up an excellent Roto number - 26 SBs.
Now that looks to be a pipe dream for 2006. Shame on you for not selling him high!
Unfortunately, he won't be there for long. (Given the fact he played full-time last year, i suspect he will play there longer than he should.)
Stephen Drew is on the way and that will leave Counsell with very limited ABs, and that is too bad. After years and years of an unexplicably long careeer, he finally put up an excellent Roto number - 26 SBs.
Now that looks to be a pipe dream for 2006. Shame on you for not selling him high!
Tuesday, December 27, 2005
Glaus Trade
The Blue Jays acquired slugging 3B/1B/DH from the Diamondbacks for 2005 Gold Glove 2B orlando Hudson and extremely versatile starter/longman/closer, Miguel Batisita.
I should have added "oft-injured" to Glaus appellation but that would have unnecessarily colored my view of the trade.
I think it is a Roto steal. Grabbing 30+ HRs for a non-descript middle infielder and a swingman is tremendous.
In real life, it is head-shaking. Why is JP gathering all the corner/DH types? Does he think he can deal from a postion of strength when all the other teams know he can't play Corey Koskie, Eric Hinkse, Troy Glaus, Shea Hillenbrand and Lyle Overbay in the same line-up?
And why give-up David Bush, Zack Jackson, Gabe Gross, Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batisita to put yourself in that postion?
I should have added "oft-injured" to Glaus appellation but that would have unnecessarily colored my view of the trade.
I think it is a Roto steal. Grabbing 30+ HRs for a non-descript middle infielder and a swingman is tremendous.
In real life, it is head-shaking. Why is JP gathering all the corner/DH types? Does he think he can deal from a postion of strength when all the other teams know he can't play Corey Koskie, Eric Hinkse, Troy Glaus, Shea Hillenbrand and Lyle Overbay in the same line-up?
And why give-up David Bush, Zack Jackson, Gabe Gross, Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batisita to put yourself in that postion?
Thursday, December 22, 2005
Reggie Sanders
Now that Reggie Sanders has signed with the Royals I can no longer argue during trade discussions that Emil Brown is still the clean-up hitter for the Royals and can be expected to match his 2005 performance; thus, amking him worth a mid-teens price.
Now he will only bat clean-up when Sanders is hurt. Which means half the time.
Brown will remain a quality Roto OF.
Those AL players who hit more than 15 HRs, drove in more than 75 runs, stole 8+ basesa dn hit greater than .280 are Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Vladimir Guerrero and Grady Sizemore. Granted Brown's numbers would have ranked him 5th in all the categories except RBIs where he ranked 4th ahead of Sizemore, this is still quite elite company to be in.
Even if the criteria is loosed to 12 HR, 70 RBI and a .275 AVG, only Tadahito Iguchi, Brian Roberts, Raul Ibanez and Carl Crawford join the club.
Brown is clearly one of the least respected/most underrated players in the AL.
Now he will only bat clean-up when Sanders is hurt. Which means half the time.
Brown will remain a quality Roto OF.
Those AL players who hit more than 15 HRs, drove in more than 75 runs, stole 8+ basesa dn hit greater than .280 are Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Vladimir Guerrero and Grady Sizemore. Granted Brown's numbers would have ranked him 5th in all the categories except RBIs where he ranked 4th ahead of Sizemore, this is still quite elite company to be in.
Even if the criteria is loosed to 12 HR, 70 RBI and a .275 AVG, only Tadahito Iguchi, Brian Roberts, Raul Ibanez and Carl Crawford join the club.
Brown is clearly one of the least respected/most underrated players in the AL.
Wednesday, December 21, 2005
New York Yankees
The Yanks got Johnny Damon on their terms (four years) and not on the strategically deceptive Scott Boras' terms.
This is a good signing although it seems as if the Yanks are willing to pay for a year or tow when he will not earn his salary. The one caveat is he will only be 34 and 35 during those years and the dramatic drop-off seen with Bernie Williams may prove to be atypical. (Hey, any chance Bernie is actually a couple years older than his listed age?)
Whatever Damon went for last season will likely be what he goes for this year. Plus Torre is not adverse to stealing bases so Damon will rebound into the 20s for SB. (Unless his shoulder is really damaged. If so, then this signing will start to suck in the second half of Year 1!)
As worthy of attention is the one-year deal Octavio Dotel signed with the Yanks. He is a prime closing sleeper for 2007! I would go several dollars on him for just that chance.
This is a good signing although it seems as if the Yanks are willing to pay for a year or tow when he will not earn his salary. The one caveat is he will only be 34 and 35 during those years and the dramatic drop-off seen with Bernie Williams may prove to be atypical. (Hey, any chance Bernie is actually a couple years older than his listed age?)
Whatever Damon went for last season will likely be what he goes for this year. Plus Torre is not adverse to stealing bases so Damon will rebound into the 20s for SB. (Unless his shoulder is really damaged. If so, then this signing will start to suck in the second half of Year 1!)
As worthy of attention is the one-year deal Octavio Dotel signed with the Yanks. He is a prime closing sleeper for 2007! I would go several dollars on him for just that chance.
Tuesday, December 20, 2005
Texas/San Diego Trade
The Rangers sent SP Chris Young, 1B Adrian Gonzalez and OF Termel Sledge to San Diego for SP Adam Eaton, RP Akori Otsuka and a low-level minor league catcher.
I cannot see why Texas would make this deal. Eaton is a free agent after next season. Young just completed his first full season and proved capable of successfully pitching in a hitter's park. Eaton pitched in a pitcher friendly park without the DH. Advantage: San Diego.
Otsuka has been a good middle reliever but he is still going from pitcher friendly confines to pitcher adverse ones. However, as a middle reliever he can be selectively exposed to favorable situations.
Adrian Gonzalez will be starting in San Diego by mid-season and has not completed a full-season in the majors yet. Sledge will be a decent 4th OF who just finished his rookie year, too.
The low-level catcher has yet to complete a full season of Low A ball.
Mixed leagues wouldn't make this trade. Why would texas? Was Daniels weaned on Yahoo! shallow mixed-leagues and as a result doesn't know that he can't just dip into the free agent pool to pick-up a 1B or OF?
More specific for Roto, this trade sends signals that Dave Roberts and Ryan Klesko are going to be platoon players in SD or trade bait.
I cannot see why Texas would make this deal. Eaton is a free agent after next season. Young just completed his first full season and proved capable of successfully pitching in a hitter's park. Eaton pitched in a pitcher friendly park without the DH. Advantage: San Diego.
Otsuka has been a good middle reliever but he is still going from pitcher friendly confines to pitcher adverse ones. However, as a middle reliever he can be selectively exposed to favorable situations.
Adrian Gonzalez will be starting in San Diego by mid-season and has not completed a full-season in the majors yet. Sledge will be a decent 4th OF who just finished his rookie year, too.
The low-level catcher has yet to complete a full season of Low A ball.
Mixed leagues wouldn't make this trade. Why would texas? Was Daniels weaned on Yahoo! shallow mixed-leagues and as a result doesn't know that he can't just dip into the free agent pool to pick-up a 1B or OF?
More specific for Roto, this trade sends signals that Dave Roberts and Ryan Klesko are going to be platoon players in SD or trade bait.
Monday, December 19, 2005
Jorge Sosa
After starting Game Three of the NLDS for the Braves, I have pencilled Jorge Sosa in as the #4 starter for the Atlanta Braves in 2006.
As such, I sent offers with him as the key piece as if this were the case, and known to other teams. In two cases, I was rebuffed because he was not in the starting rotation.
I was shocked so I immediately began a cursory search for information that would lead these teams to ignore the Game Three starting assignment.
No roto blurbs on Rotoworld or TQS. No off-season Atlanta signings of a starting pitcher or rumors of such. Then I checked the depth charts provided by Rotoworld and saw the reason. The service has Sosa listed in the bullpen and Mike Hapmton as the #3 starter.
Unfortuantely for Mike Hampton owners, he is out for 2006 with Tommy John surgery, but the damage had been done.
This weekend, Rotoworld had a Dominican Winter League update on Sosa. He pitched two innings of relief. Maybe one of these teams was privy to this and I missed it.
But as my Roto mind works, I cast it in a more favorable light. Since the Braves have not signed a closer to replace Kyle Farnsworth, maybe they are grooming Sosa to do it!
And if this is the case, I am glad those teams turned him down because nothing in Roto makes me feel sicker than seeing a former player of mine turn into a closer.
As such, I sent offers with him as the key piece as if this were the case, and known to other teams. In two cases, I was rebuffed because he was not in the starting rotation.
I was shocked so I immediately began a cursory search for information that would lead these teams to ignore the Game Three starting assignment.
No roto blurbs on Rotoworld or TQS. No off-season Atlanta signings of a starting pitcher or rumors of such. Then I checked the depth charts provided by Rotoworld and saw the reason. The service has Sosa listed in the bullpen and Mike Hapmton as the #3 starter.
Unfortuantely for Mike Hampton owners, he is out for 2006 with Tommy John surgery, but the damage had been done.
This weekend, Rotoworld had a Dominican Winter League update on Sosa. He pitched two innings of relief. Maybe one of these teams was privy to this and I missed it.
But as my Roto mind works, I cast it in a more favorable light. Since the Braves have not signed a closer to replace Kyle Farnsworth, maybe they are grooming Sosa to do it!
And if this is the case, I am glad those teams turned him down because nothing in Roto makes me feel sicker than seeing a former player of mine turn into a closer.
Friday, December 16, 2005
Kansas City
What are they doing?
Why would they sign Elmer Dessens, Scott Elarton, Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Grudzalaniek, Paul Bako?
I can't see any of those players being considered starting players on any other team with the exception of Grudzalaniek, and even he is so pedestrian that I would forgo his blandness for a younger player with upside.
All they did was overpay for their 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th and 25th man on their 25-man rosters.
Stupid management leads to bad teams - not market size.
Why would they sign Elmer Dessens, Scott Elarton, Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Grudzalaniek, Paul Bako?
I can't see any of those players being considered starting players on any other team with the exception of Grudzalaniek, and even he is so pedestrian that I would forgo his blandness for a younger player with upside.
All they did was overpay for their 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th and 25th man on their 25-man rosters.
Stupid management leads to bad teams - not market size.
Wednesday, December 14, 2005
Javier Vasquez
Did I miss something? Has Vasquez pitched like a 10-figure per year pitcher the past two seasons?
He has not, at least if being a 10-figure pitcher means being Top 10 in any positive pitching categories.
In the real world something has not translated to Roto. Assuming all three players were protectable (Vasquez <$13, Vizcaino <$3, El Duque <$3 and Young a drafted farm player), no one would turn down El Duque, Vizcaino and Young for Vasquez.
Personally, I wouldn't have traded Young for Vasquez straight-up. 200 inning starting pitchers with ERAs near 4.50 have no place on my team. Nevermind that his ERA will likely go up pitching to 9-man line-ups and in a hitter-friendly home ballpark.
He has not, at least if being a 10-figure pitcher means being Top 10 in any positive pitching categories.
In the real world something has not translated to Roto. Assuming all three players were protectable (Vasquez <$13, Vizcaino <$3, El Duque <$3 and Young a drafted farm player), no one would turn down El Duque, Vizcaino and Young for Vasquez.
Personally, I wouldn't have traded Young for Vasquez straight-up. 200 inning starting pitchers with ERAs near 4.50 have no place on my team. Nevermind that his ERA will likely go up pitching to 9-man line-ups and in a hitter-friendly home ballpark.
Tuesday, December 13, 2005
Who's on first?
Nomar Garciaparra????
Jeez, the Big Stein has to make a splash, doesn't he? Even if it means moving baseball's hottest 2nd half hitter in 2005, Jason Giambi, from the situation he occupied while amassing those numbers?
Foolish.
Jeez, the Big Stein has to make a splash, doesn't he? Even if it means moving baseball's hottest 2nd half hitter in 2005, Jason Giambi, from the situation he occupied while amassing those numbers?
Foolish.
Monday, December 12, 2005
Trading
I sent an inquiry to the team that just lost Soriano to the NL figuring he had already committed to protecting him at his salary ($43). My bait was a $36 Ichiro.
He asked what I was interested in and I mentioned weither of the SS.
He looked at my team and responded I had more keepable players than I could protect.
And that was it.
Shouldn't he have known to make an offer with two players from my team? Or three? Doesn't everyone know to do this?
Apparently not.
As a result, our discussions have morphed into me holding his hand and trying to teach him how to negotiate Roto trades. Needless to say this is like a joke where you have to explain the punchline - not fun.
He asked what I was interested in and I mentioned weither of the SS.
He looked at my team and responded I had more keepable players than I could protect.
And that was it.
Shouldn't he have known to make an offer with two players from my team? Or three? Doesn't everyone know to do this?
Apparently not.
As a result, our discussions have morphed into me holding his hand and trying to teach him how to negotiate Roto trades. Needless to say this is like a joke where you have to explain the punchline - not fun.
Friday, December 09, 2005
Dan Uggla
He was selected by the Florida Marlins yesterday. As a 2B, he certainly looks as good as any other option the team has. Actually, he looks like the best. Sorry to all you Alfredo Almazaega fans.
In AA Tennessee of the Southern league, he hit .297/.378/.502 with 33 doubles, 21 homers, and 15 steals. With that type of pop, I expect he can be a decent Roto middle infielder with 300+ ABs. My guess is a slightly better version of Aaron Miles.
For comparison, as a 25-year-old in the same league, Miles hit .304/.354/.445.
Hopefully, Ugga won't be too close to Miles' numbers because the guys at Rotoworld will attack him as visciously as they do Miles!
In AA Tennessee of the Southern league, he hit .297/.378/.502 with 33 doubles, 21 homers, and 15 steals. With that type of pop, I expect he can be a decent Roto middle infielder with 300+ ABs. My guess is a slightly better version of Aaron Miles.
For comparison, as a 25-year-old in the same league, Miles hit .304/.354/.445.
Hopefully, Ugga won't be too close to Miles' numbers because the guys at Rotoworld will attack him as visciously as they do Miles!
Esteban German
Yesterday, the Royals acquired Esteban German for the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft.
He is a major sleeper. He has spent 4 full years atAAA and consistently posted high OBPs (.390. .379, .380, and .400 the last four seasons) and he stole 43 bases last season (26, 32, 18 in half a year the prior three seasons.) while also improving his caught stealing percentages. With little to no competition for 2B, he should get full-time ABs next year, and if he is decent, rack up very good SB numbers (>20) for a handful or so of draft dollars.
As I expect him to land on most sleeper lists, I won't say he will be had for a $1 at the end of the draft. However, my past experience of middle infielder prices has shown the vast majority to go for $15 +/- $5. I expect him to still go for less than the lower end of that range. I would also consider protecting him at $10 if he was plucked from the pool at some point last season and is still on a team's reserve list.
The most glaring question is why, in this Moneyball era, did he spend four full seasons in AAA while doing everything the sabremetricians tout?
He is a major sleeper. He has spent 4 full years atAAA and consistently posted high OBPs (.390. .379, .380, and .400 the last four seasons) and he stole 43 bases last season (26, 32, 18 in half a year the prior three seasons.) while also improving his caught stealing percentages. With little to no competition for 2B, he should get full-time ABs next year, and if he is decent, rack up very good SB numbers (>20) for a handful or so of draft dollars.
As I expect him to land on most sleeper lists, I won't say he will be had for a $1 at the end of the draft. However, my past experience of middle infielder prices has shown the vast majority to go for $15 +/- $5. I expect him to still go for less than the lower end of that range. I would also consider protecting him at $10 if he was plucked from the pool at some point last season and is still on a team's reserve list.
The most glaring question is why, in this Moneyball era, did he spend four full seasons in AAA while doing everything the sabremetricians tout?
Tuesday, December 06, 2005
Sean Casey
So Pitsburgh needs a 31-year-old 1B with minimal power to make them.....what? Stupid?
Casey's reputation as a great teammate is going to have to go a loooooooooooooooooooooooooong way if this is to be considered a good trade.
Dave Williams may not be Randy Johnson, but he is 26 and left-handed. One would think the Pirates could have gotten a little more than a soon-to-be free agent 1B with low double digit power making $8.5 million this year.
God, what an awful deal for the Pirates!
Casey's reputation as a great teammate is going to have to go a loooooooooooooooooooooooooong way if this is to be considered a good trade.
Dave Williams may not be Randy Johnson, but he is 26 and left-handed. One would think the Pirates could have gotten a little more than a soon-to-be free agent 1B with low double digit power making $8.5 million this year.
God, what an awful deal for the Pirates!
Monday, December 05, 2005
Stripping the farm
Didn't Minaya leave the Expos/Nationals farm system barren?
He is certainly doing it to the Mets. He traded Gabby Hernandez, considered their best pitching propsect after the Petit deal, and a PTBNL for a 34-year-old catcher with poor catch-stealers skills who is owed $6 mm for each of the next two seasons.
I guess his non-Roto contributions are much greater than are apparent in his numbers because I don't see how he is $11+ mm better than Ramon Castro.
Castro: 28 years-old 209 ABs 8 HR 41 RBI .244 AVG .321 OBP .435 SLG
LoDuca: 34 years-old 445 ABS 6 HR 57 RBI .283 AVG .334 OBP .380 SLG
Before Minaya is allowed to trade prospects he should be asked, "How are Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore doing?"
He is certainly doing it to the Mets. He traded Gabby Hernandez, considered their best pitching propsect after the Petit deal, and a PTBNL for a 34-year-old catcher with poor catch-stealers skills who is owed $6 mm for each of the next two seasons.
I guess his non-Roto contributions are much greater than are apparent in his numbers because I don't see how he is $11+ mm better than Ramon Castro.
Castro: 28 years-old 209 ABs 8 HR 41 RBI .244 AVG .321 OBP .435 SLG
LoDuca: 34 years-old 445 ABS 6 HR 57 RBI .283 AVG .334 OBP .380 SLG
Before Minaya is allowed to trade prospects he should be asked, "How are Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore doing?"
Saturday, December 03, 2005
Marlins
Castillo had a very nice OBP, but if the new 2b can add some pop, I think the Marlins will not be noticably worse.
Seems a great risk for the team - add one power arm for the 2006 bullpen with another in AA for a 2B whose main value is concentrated on the current obsession with OBP.
Speaking of such, the Phils asked for Wang from the Yanks for Jason Michale, another player who has one skill - OBP. He has no pop whatsoever while playing in a hitter-friendly park.
Seems a great risk for the team - add one power arm for the 2006 bullpen with another in AA for a 2B whose main value is concentrated on the current obsession with OBP.
Speaking of such, the Phils asked for Wang from the Yanks for Jason Michale, another player who has one skill - OBP. He has no pop whatsoever while playing in a hitter-friendly park.
Friday, December 02, 2005
Luis Castillo
At least, the Twins have an infielder who can hit .300. As for power and speed....
Travis Bowyer looks like a "sleeper" to close. I put that in quotes because everyone will know it and thus he won't be a true sleeper.
he would make Proctor that much more of a sleeper, though, if he gets all the off-season hype.
Travis Bowyer looks like a "sleeper" to close. I put that in quotes because everyone will know it and thus he won't be a true sleeper.
he would make Proctor that much more of a sleeper, though, if he gets all the off-season hype.
Juan Pierre to the Yanks?
This makes perfect sense. The Yanks need a CF. Florida is having a fire sale with a CF on display. And the Fish want a couple of mediocre pitchers - Scott Proctor and Sean Henn.
If this occurred, I like Proctor as a sleeper in Florida. if the Fish have no defined closer come Opening Day, I would love him!
As for Henn, I was unimpressed last season, but would not be surprised to see him be moderately successful a la Brad Halsey in the NL.
As for Pierre, get your checkbook ready because he will go for $30+. See Scott Podsednick for a rough estimation of draft value.
If this occurred, I like Proctor as a sleeper in Florida. if the Fish have no defined closer come Opening Day, I would love him!
As for Henn, I was unimpressed last season, but would not be surprised to see him be moderately successful a la Brad Halsey in the NL.
As for Pierre, get your checkbook ready because he will go for $30+. See Scott Podsednick for a rough estimation of draft value.
Thursday, December 01, 2005
Farnsworth
Anyone notice that Steve Karsay's $22 million contract is now the norm for an 8th inning pitcher?
I am glad Kyle Farnsworth signed to set-up because I would not have wanted to risk closer money on him at the draft. I know he did well in the role last season, but what about that blow-up with a 5-0 lead in the play-offs?
Like I said, I am happy to not have to take that risk.
He could be a decent middle reliver though. Pitching for the Yankees, he should be in line for some Ws. And if he fails, you will know very quickly because Torre will stop using him regularly, and you can cut bait. There is little chance the Yanks would give-up on him during the first year (Although, I am sure, the Tampa Cronies would revel in Cashman's mistake.) Before there was Javier Vasquez, there was Sterling Hitchcock would pitched mop-up for $6.3 MM.
This would allay some of the fear that he would end-up closing somewhere else.
Given the market, the Yanks are better off over paying two set-up men for the price of one closer. And they haven't brought in a weak-armed, sore shouldered CF for another 7 years and $80+ million,
I am glad Kyle Farnsworth signed to set-up because I would not have wanted to risk closer money on him at the draft. I know he did well in the role last season, but what about that blow-up with a 5-0 lead in the play-offs?
Like I said, I am happy to not have to take that risk.
He could be a decent middle reliver though. Pitching for the Yankees, he should be in line for some Ws. And if he fails, you will know very quickly because Torre will stop using him regularly, and you can cut bait. There is little chance the Yanks would give-up on him during the first year (Although, I am sure, the Tampa Cronies would revel in Cashman's mistake.) Before there was Javier Vasquez, there was Sterling Hitchcock would pitched mop-up for $6.3 MM.
This would allay some of the fear that he would end-up closing somewhere else.
Given the market, the Yanks are better off over paying two set-up men for the price of one closer. And they haven't brought in a weak-armed, sore shouldered CF for another 7 years and $80+ million,
Wednesday, November 30, 2005
Alphonso Soriano is one of the most valuable AL Roto players. 30/30 is not available anywhere else.
However, realizing that value is hard. He has been in trade rumors all off-season, and even if he isn't dealt this winter, he will be in trade rumors the moment the Rangers go two games under .500.
Who is going to pay the price necessary to land him with that dark cloud over him?
However, realizing that value is hard. He has been in trade rumors all off-season, and even if he isn't dealt this winter, he will be in trade rumors the moment the Rangers go two games under .500.
Who is going to pay the price necessary to land him with that dark cloud over him?
A couple of huge closer signings, and their effect on Roto is much less than the media coverage surrounding them.
Why? Because neither closer changed leagues.
However, the owners of Migule Batisita would certainly disagree. Losing a closer always hurts, but unless he was in next season's draft, little damage was done to the other teams in the league. And given he joined the Jays in the 2004 off-season, I am sure he was not.
The Orioles closing situation is officially in the air now, but even there, most did not expect the O's to resign Ryan. ("most" = me and my brother, who listens to MLB on XM Radio and heard this during the season.)
Who is going to close in Baltimore? My guess is one of the unglamourous old guys - Todd Jones or Bob Wickman. What do I base that on? Nothing.
Why? Because neither closer changed leagues.
However, the owners of Migule Batisita would certainly disagree. Losing a closer always hurts, but unless he was in next season's draft, little damage was done to the other teams in the league. And given he joined the Jays in the 2004 off-season, I am sure he was not.
The Orioles closing situation is officially in the air now, but even there, most did not expect the O's to resign Ryan. ("most" = me and my brother, who listens to MLB on XM Radio and heard this during the season.)
Who is going to close in Baltimore? My guess is one of the unglamourous old guys - Todd Jones or Bob Wickman. What do I base that on? Nothing.
Tuesday, November 29, 2005
Mike Jacobs
After a week of finding no one who agrees with my assessment of the Delgado trade, Rob neyer finally opines somethign that would put us in the same park.
To quote:
"Because Mike Jacobs is going to be a fine MLB first baseman -- in 2007 he'll be as good as Delgado...."
To quote:
"Because Mike Jacobs is going to be a fine MLB first baseman -- in 2007 he'll be as good as Delgado...."
Monday, November 28, 2005
Resetting contracts
With fully-valued players eligible to be signed to a long-term contract does it make sense to throw them back into the pool to reset the contract?
A clever answer would be "yes." As the player is already fully-valued, you can assume he won't go for much more than a $1 or $2. True, he'd be more expensive, but the ability to control that player for an additional two years would make up for that.
The risk of doing this is plenty. The main risk is you will not get the player back. After all, a fully-valued player has already been recognized twice as such (once at a draft and the following year as a keeper), and therefore, 11 other teams can be expected to know about him. If you do not get the player, then acquiring him via trade will be costly. $30+ players are not sold cheaply!
In a keeper league, this will be especially true as the pool of top-flight players will be limited and cause the player in question to be easily recognized.
The second risk is something goes wrong with your plan and the player goes for $5 or so more. All of a sudden a $34 Eric Chavez is $39. True, his contract is reset, but in no way is he worth $39. Now he is going right back into the pool the following season - a de facto last-year contract.
There is also an opportunity risk in leaving a slot open to get this player back. By doing so, you may lose out on the opportunity to draft a player going for less than you thought or one that you project will have a breakout year. (My guess is this occurs most frequently with the DH spot, but could occur anywhere on the roster.)
After this brief examination, I would say to keep the fully-valued player and let him ride out his contract. You can then "reset" it the following year.
A clever answer would be "yes." As the player is already fully-valued, you can assume he won't go for much more than a $1 or $2. True, he'd be more expensive, but the ability to control that player for an additional two years would make up for that.
The risk of doing this is plenty. The main risk is you will not get the player back. After all, a fully-valued player has already been recognized twice as such (once at a draft and the following year as a keeper), and therefore, 11 other teams can be expected to know about him. If you do not get the player, then acquiring him via trade will be costly. $30+ players are not sold cheaply!
In a keeper league, this will be especially true as the pool of top-flight players will be limited and cause the player in question to be easily recognized.
The second risk is something goes wrong with your plan and the player goes for $5 or so more. All of a sudden a $34 Eric Chavez is $39. True, his contract is reset, but in no way is he worth $39. Now he is going right back into the pool the following season - a de facto last-year contract.
There is also an opportunity risk in leaving a slot open to get this player back. By doing so, you may lose out on the opportunity to draft a player going for less than you thought or one that you project will have a breakout year. (My guess is this occurs most frequently with the DH spot, but could occur anywhere on the roster.)
After this brief examination, I would say to keep the fully-valued player and let him ride out his contract. You can then "reset" it the following year.
Wednesday, November 23, 2005
Newsday.com: Mets get Delgado
If this is correct, then Florida made out like a bandit. Petit should be decent and Jacobs will come much closer to Delgado's HR production than anyone will project. He hit 43 HR last season.
This was a dumb move by the Mets. 30+ year-old, 10-figure 1B are not wise decisions. Just ask Philadelphia. Or how about the Yankees?
This was a dumb move by the Mets. 30+ year-old, 10-figure 1B are not wise decisions. Just ask Philadelphia. Or how about the Yankees?
Tuesday, November 22, 2005
Hanley Ramirez
With the latest Boston robbery of a top starting pitcher (the first being Schilling two off-seasons ago), a little more due diligence should have been paid to Hanley Ramirez.
He has never hit more than 8 HR in any minor league season, and that one time was in 2003! He hit 6 in the next two years. Not exactly an upward trend.
With a minor leaguer, occasionally doubles are predictive of furture power. In 2003, he hit 24. The next two seasons' totals were 15 and 21.
How about AVG? He hit .352 in 2002 and slugged about .540. A hyped prospect was born! In 2003, he only hit .275 and slugged .403. While he did have career highs in 2B and HR, they were not reflected positively in his SLG because he received 160 more ABs.
In 2004, he got his AVG to .310 against better competition and raised his SLG to .432, but still a long way from his 2002 numbers. But he followed that with a worse 2005, hitting .271 and slugging .385.
His SB success rate has also trended similiarly 57% to 73% to 71% to 67%. Basically, flat to negative.
(Yes, I know I did not have great things to say about Beckett but "top starting pitching" is relative and defined within the context of 4x4 Rotisserie where Scot Shields is more valuable than the vast majority of starting pitchers
He has never hit more than 8 HR in any minor league season, and that one time was in 2003! He hit 6 in the next two years. Not exactly an upward trend.
With a minor leaguer, occasionally doubles are predictive of furture power. In 2003, he hit 24. The next two seasons' totals were 15 and 21.
How about AVG? He hit .352 in 2002 and slugged about .540. A hyped prospect was born! In 2003, he only hit .275 and slugged .403. While he did have career highs in 2B and HR, they were not reflected positively in his SLG because he received 160 more ABs.
In 2004, he got his AVG to .310 against better competition and raised his SLG to .432, but still a long way from his 2002 numbers. But he followed that with a worse 2005, hitting .271 and slugging .385.
His SB success rate has also trended similiarly 57% to 73% to 71% to 67%. Basically, flat to negative.
(Yes, I know I did not have great things to say about Beckett but "top starting pitching" is relative and defined within the context of 4x4 Rotisserie where Scot Shields is more valuable than the vast majority of starting pitchers
Monday, November 21, 2005
Beckett Trade
Amazing. The Red Sox trade a prospect whose star has failed to rise despite persisent cajoling from the baseball press along with a couple other minor league prospects of little repute for a powerpitcher moving into his prime.
Those facts aside, I am not impressed with Beckett. He moves from a great NL pitcher's park with a great defense behind him to an AL hitter's park with a lesser defense.
Those facts are of considerable value in assessing Beckett's 2006 Roto prospects. I expect him to go for $25+ on hype. I would not be surprised to see a Matt Clement redux.
Hanley Ramirez may get some good hype but I expect disappointment. His power does not look promising in Pro Player, and his success rate of 66% last season in AA does not cause me to think he will improve once he is amongst the big boys.
He is young, though, and may play up to the competition.
Those facts aside, I am not impressed with Beckett. He moves from a great NL pitcher's park with a great defense behind him to an AL hitter's park with a lesser defense.
Those facts are of considerable value in assessing Beckett's 2006 Roto prospects. I expect him to go for $25+ on hype. I would not be surprised to see a Matt Clement redux.
Hanley Ramirez may get some good hype but I expect disappointment. His power does not look promising in Pro Player, and his success rate of 66% last season in AA does not cause me to think he will improve once he is amongst the big boys.
He is young, though, and may play up to the competition.
Saturday, November 19, 2005
Octavio
Dotel is clearly one of the top sleepers going into 2006. He will close if someone falters and should go for little more than $1 at a draft due to his elbow injury.
I wouldn't hesitate to pay $5 or so for him.
After my previous post, I should have followed up with something related to data organization but did not.
If you want more info on this topic, then post a comment and I will try to address this more in the future. (After all, any ol' site can comment on players, but how many are offering tips on organizing data?)
I wouldn't hesitate to pay $5 or so for him.
After my previous post, I should have followed up with something related to data organization but did not.
If you want more info on this topic, then post a comment and I will try to address this more in the future. (After all, any ol' site can comment on players, but how many are offering tips on organizing data?)
Friday, November 18, 2005
One of my leagues uses TQStats (TQS) and the other uses All-Star Stats (ASS). About 50% of each league plays in the other so there are several owners who can compare each site and comment on each endlessly.
One owner, I will call him The Pot Stirrer, voiced a concern over the user-friendliness of TQS player lists because there was no function to find a player and see what Roto team he was on.
After some bickering about it being too hard to copy text reports into other applications and easily formatting them, he agreed to pay me a nominal sum to produce something more easily manipulated with the assumption that it couldn't be done.
I did do it, and rather easily (the autofilter on Excel is a geat tool.)
So I posted he owed me the nominal fee. Another owner complained that I was making money off fellow owners because of a crappy site. (He is a pro-ASS owner. I am an anti-ASS owner due to the 500% difference in price.)
Here I thought I made money off other owners misfortunate drafting and trading.
Given the much better report I produced, I went to ASS to try to do the same. No such luck. I have been unable to find a ASS report that provided position eligibility for 2006. (TQS showed games played at each position.)
If I can find a way to pull the eligibility from a separte Excel report into the ASS report, then it would prove a wash, but until then, 50 points to Gryffin......TQS.
One owner, I will call him The Pot Stirrer, voiced a concern over the user-friendliness of TQS player lists because there was no function to find a player and see what Roto team he was on.
After some bickering about it being too hard to copy text reports into other applications and easily formatting them, he agreed to pay me a nominal sum to produce something more easily manipulated with the assumption that it couldn't be done.
I did do it, and rather easily (the autofilter on Excel is a geat tool.)
So I posted he owed me the nominal fee. Another owner complained that I was making money off fellow owners because of a crappy site. (He is a pro-ASS owner. I am an anti-ASS owner due to the 500% difference in price.)
Here I thought I made money off other owners misfortunate drafting and trading.
Given the much better report I produced, I went to ASS to try to do the same. No such luck. I have been unable to find a ASS report that provided position eligibility for 2006. (TQS showed games played at each position.)
If I can find a way to pull the eligibility from a separte Excel report into the ASS report, then it would prove a wash, but until then, 50 points to Gryffin......TQS.
Wednesday, November 09, 2005
Brian Lawrence
The former Padre and current National, Brian Lawrence ($6), was just offered to me in a package with Damian Miller($5) for Juan Encarnacion($10).
It is a fair offer but not one that I like for several reasons.
Damian Miller is now a productive NL catcher (4th in AVG amongst those with 300 AB), and I would have him on my team at the right price ($5 and under), but he is 36 year-old. Any drop from his 9 HR/40 RBI level makes him easily replacable/worthless.
Brian Lawrence has one thing going for him - he is pitching in an extreme pitcher's park. At first blush, one would think his ERA and WHIP could improve from thier 2005 levels, 4.83 and 1.37 respectively. However, a little thought makes me believe their may not be enough improvement to make him valuable. Namely, he already pitched in a pitcher's park, Petco!
Really, how far will his ERA drop? 4.75? 4.69? It would have to go below 4.00 for him to be worth keeping at $6.
So, with Lawrence unprotectable at $6, this trade is the certainty of a 36-year-old catcher versus the upside of a $10 Encarnacion (16/73/6/.287 in 2005 in a pitcher's park.)
It is a fair offer but not one that I like for several reasons.
Damian Miller is now a productive NL catcher (4th in AVG amongst those with 300 AB), and I would have him on my team at the right price ($5 and under), but he is 36 year-old. Any drop from his 9 HR/40 RBI level makes him easily replacable/worthless.
Brian Lawrence has one thing going for him - he is pitching in an extreme pitcher's park. At first blush, one would think his ERA and WHIP could improve from thier 2005 levels, 4.83 and 1.37 respectively. However, a little thought makes me believe their may not be enough improvement to make him valuable. Namely, he already pitched in a pitcher's park, Petco!
Really, how far will his ERA drop? 4.75? 4.69? It would have to go below 4.00 for him to be worth keeping at $6.
So, with Lawrence unprotectable at $6, this trade is the certainty of a 36-year-old catcher versus the upside of a $10 Encarnacion (16/73/6/.287 in 2005 in a pitcher's park.)
Monday, November 07, 2005
Trades
I am so itching to make a deal in either league but cannot find anything worth pursuing.
In the NL, I have Dontrelle at $10, Brett Myers at $10, Matt Cain at $5 and Jorge Sosa at $1. Do I need to acquire SP? No. Do I need to get a cheaper staff? No.
I could use a closer but must wait to see how things shake out in the free agent market. I do have Urbina at $18 and suspect he will close somewhere.
I also have Duaner Sanchez, who finished last season as the Dodgers closer. Nothing will be known in LA until Gagne reports for Spring Training.
For hitting, I have a slew of players whose value will largely be determined this off-season - Juan Encarnacion, Austin Kearns, Kenny Loften, Joe Randa, Ryan Shealy, Ryan Klesko, Jerry Hairston. Even free agent Wes Helms becomes valuable at $5 if he signs with a team that commits to getting him 300+ ABs.
Until that is settled, I am wise to hold off making trades for the sake of making trades.
But how I'd like to do so!
In the NL, I have Dontrelle at $10, Brett Myers at $10, Matt Cain at $5 and Jorge Sosa at $1. Do I need to acquire SP? No. Do I need to get a cheaper staff? No.
I could use a closer but must wait to see how things shake out in the free agent market. I do have Urbina at $18 and suspect he will close somewhere.
I also have Duaner Sanchez, who finished last season as the Dodgers closer. Nothing will be known in LA until Gagne reports for Spring Training.
For hitting, I have a slew of players whose value will largely be determined this off-season - Juan Encarnacion, Austin Kearns, Kenny Loften, Joe Randa, Ryan Shealy, Ryan Klesko, Jerry Hairston. Even free agent Wes Helms becomes valuable at $5 if he signs with a team that commits to getting him 300+ ABs.
Until that is settled, I am wise to hold off making trades for the sake of making trades.
But how I'd like to do so!
Sunday, November 06, 2005
Billy Wagner
Looks as if the Mets are going to get Billy Wagner $10MM per and a no-trade.
I wonder how everything shakes out if the Mets land Wagner espeically if NY Post's Joel Sherman is correct and the Yankees land BJ Ryan.
Baltimore and Philadelphia will have new closers for sure, but who those will be is too far up in the air to guess.
The list of teams looking for one would be Baltimore, Cleveland, Detroit, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Florida, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and San Diego.
There will be a lot of Roto teams that fall into a 2006 closer, and I hope to be one of those teams.
I wonder how everything shakes out if the Mets land Wagner espeically if NY Post's Joel Sherman is correct and the Yankees land BJ Ryan.
Baltimore and Philadelphia will have new closers for sure, but who those will be is too far up in the air to guess.
The list of teams looking for one would be Baltimore, Cleveland, Detroit, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Florida, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and San Diego.
There will be a lot of Roto teams that fall into a 2006 closer, and I hope to be one of those teams.
Saturday, November 05, 2005
Bruce Chen
I was entertaining an offer of Freddie Garica $16 for Mike Sweeney $16. The counteroffer was Sweeney/something for Garcia because Sweeney is frequently injured.
Before pursing this any further, I wanted to check stats of the players involved. As often happens, players full-season stats are not immediatley displayed due to trades, and I am unaware of how good or bad the player did over the entire season.
1st, Sweeny hit .300/21/83 in 470 ABs - very good numbers. If he were to stay healthy (150+ games), then he'd be a part of the wiinning Roto team. (Recently, he said he'd be OK DHing more.)
Next I checked Garcia. I thought he had done better than I thought he would prior to the start of the year due to the SEA/CHI splits from 2004.
He did do better - 14 W, 3.87 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in 228 IP. These were good, but not sure I liked that ERA so close to 4.00 for $16.
With these in hand, I noticed Bruce Chen ($10), who is already on my team. He had 13 W, 3.83 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 197.1 innings.
Garcia's numbers were better, but I had to ask myslef whether dealing Sweeney for essentially the same player was wise.
I think not, but then embarked on finding a reason why and alit upon Leo Mazzone, Chen's new pitching coach in Baltimore. By my reckoning, Chen has some room to get better under Mazzone (this time!) while I do not see Garcia improving on his ratios. (maybe worsening if his defense is worst next year. See Bronson Arroyo.)
Before pursing this any further, I wanted to check stats of the players involved. As often happens, players full-season stats are not immediatley displayed due to trades, and I am unaware of how good or bad the player did over the entire season.
1st, Sweeny hit .300/21/83 in 470 ABs - very good numbers. If he were to stay healthy (150+ games), then he'd be a part of the wiinning Roto team. (Recently, he said he'd be OK DHing more.)
Next I checked Garcia. I thought he had done better than I thought he would prior to the start of the year due to the SEA/CHI splits from 2004.
He did do better - 14 W, 3.87 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in 228 IP. These were good, but not sure I liked that ERA so close to 4.00 for $16.
With these in hand, I noticed Bruce Chen ($10), who is already on my team. He had 13 W, 3.83 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 197.1 innings.
Garcia's numbers were better, but I had to ask myslef whether dealing Sweeney for essentially the same player was wise.
I think not, but then embarked on finding a reason why and alit upon Leo Mazzone, Chen's new pitching coach in Baltimore. By my reckoning, Chen has some room to get better under Mazzone (this time!) while I do not see Garcia improving on his ratios. (maybe worsening if his defense is worst next year. See Bronson Arroyo.)
Wednesday, November 02, 2005
Mark Buerhle vs Scott Kazmir
Buerhle is $30, and Kazmir is $10.
Buerhle has two seasons left (2006 & 2007) Kazmir has only one (2006)
Which player is more valuable?
Buerhle's relevant facts - 236.7 innings 16 W 3.12 ERA 1.18 WHIP 26 years-old
Kazmir's relevant facts - 186 innings 10 W 3.77 ERA 1.46 WHIP 22 years-old
Buerhle has two seasons left (2006 & 2007) Kazmir has only one (2006)
Which player is more valuable?
Buerhle's relevant facts - 236.7 innings 16 W 3.12 ERA 1.18 WHIP 26 years-old
Kazmir's relevant facts - 186 innings 10 W 3.77 ERA 1.46 WHIP 22 years-old
Monday, October 31, 2005
Jason Giambi
I've written many times (here, here, here, here) about Giambi. (And about Aaron Hill, and Jonny Gomes and Brett Myers, but I digress.)
Now that he has restablished himself as a legit HR hitter again, I am getting daily offers for him. At $15, he is clearly undervalued by the same. I doubt anyone would find Giambi carrying a $30 tag in any book, but I base mine on experience (Yes, I am a scout and those books and mags are Moneyball!) Any hitter who hits 30 HR in a AL/NL-only format will go for $30+. Good or bad, it is reality and the quicker you recognize it, the easier it will be to compete.
But the offers! I am currently loaded with 1B, 2B and OF. If a team knew that, they could tailor their offer to complement that fact i.e. don't offer me a 1B, 2B or OF. An offer of a C, SS, 3B or pitcher would fit nicely.
Instead I get offers with Terence Long in them! Jeez, I already have Emil Brown. Nevermind whether I would want Terence Long if no one played the OF!
When I trade, I tend to look closely at the degree of full-value the players have. If Giambi is $15 under-valued, then I want that in return. For example, do not offer me a $14 CC Sabathia for him. I see Sabathia as, most generously described, fully-valued. (And if you add Terence Long as a sweetner....)
Even with that considered, I also look at scarcity and replacement costs. What will it take for me to land a 30 HR hitter at the draft? get a player of similar perfromance and price as the one offered? If I can't get what I deal or can get what I acquire easily, then I will require an even better offer than another player $15 under-valued.
A team could try to sweeten the offer with more players, but I usually have nearly the maximum number of keepers already so I will see that as unappealling despite the allure of future trading options.
Anyway, I am beyond trading for trading's sake. Unfortunately, this type of strategy tends towards much less trading..
Now that he has restablished himself as a legit HR hitter again, I am getting daily offers for him. At $15, he is clearly undervalued by the same. I doubt anyone would find Giambi carrying a $30 tag in any book, but I base mine on experience (Yes, I am a scout and those books and mags are Moneyball!) Any hitter who hits 30 HR in a AL/NL-only format will go for $30+. Good or bad, it is reality and the quicker you recognize it, the easier it will be to compete.
But the offers! I am currently loaded with 1B, 2B and OF. If a team knew that, they could tailor their offer to complement that fact i.e. don't offer me a 1B, 2B or OF. An offer of a C, SS, 3B or pitcher would fit nicely.
Instead I get offers with Terence Long in them! Jeez, I already have Emil Brown. Nevermind whether I would want Terence Long if no one played the OF!
When I trade, I tend to look closely at the degree of full-value the players have. If Giambi is $15 under-valued, then I want that in return. For example, do not offer me a $14 CC Sabathia for him. I see Sabathia as, most generously described, fully-valued. (And if you add Terence Long as a sweetner....)
Even with that considered, I also look at scarcity and replacement costs. What will it take for me to land a 30 HR hitter at the draft? get a player of similar perfromance and price as the one offered? If I can't get what I deal or can get what I acquire easily, then I will require an even better offer than another player $15 under-valued.
A team could try to sweeten the offer with more players, but I usually have nearly the maximum number of keepers already so I will see that as unappealling despite the allure of future trading options.
Anyway, I am beyond trading for trading's sake. Unfortunately, this type of strategy tends towards much less trading..
Sunday, October 30, 2005
Lugo
Rotoworld notes the D'Rays will pick-upthe option on Julio Lugo. This generates two questions.
The first is where BJ Upton will play in 2006. SS? 3B?
The second, and more important one, is what do you pay for Lugo? Will he steal 34 again? The answer to that is more important than Upton's position because 30+ SB is gold in AL Roto.
I do not know the answer to that question as I am still stunned he stole 34! (And was on the league-winning team along with 41-Save teammate Danys.)
The first is where BJ Upton will play in 2006. SS? 3B?
The second, and more important one, is what do you pay for Lugo? Will he steal 34 again? The answer to that is more important than Upton's position because 30+ SB is gold in AL Roto.
I do not know the answer to that question as I am still stunned he stole 34! (And was on the league-winning team along with 41-Save teammate Danys.)
Saturday, October 29, 2005
Some Thoughts
Now that the World Series is over, I need only wait another 8 or 9 days before free agent questions begin to be answered. Once this occurs, my off-season trading will quicken.
~
The Dodgers fired Moneyballer, Paul DePodesta. From my POV, Tommy Lasorda is a poisonous advisor. The fact he had the McCourts' ear says they are not fit to run a team. The Dodgers system looks extremely strong at the highest levels which will allow the club to make one-year gambles while feeding the roster with potential minimum salary/maximum performance players.
Where is the Bill Parcells of baseball (a manager who sees a teams full of talent and takes it over and gets credit for making it better.) Whomever takes over that club will put a play-off contender on the field. Any Roto player can step in a sign enough talent to make that so.
I wonder if ol' Tommyboy is thinking of getting back into the game?
~
A team made his $7 final year in 2006 Morgan Ensberg available. He wants something supersexy - a cheap stud and hot prospect, both with more time that Ensberg. This type of trade is always a loser for the one who meets the asking price as only a league win can offset the extra time available on the traded player contracts. And a league win is not guaranteed by one hitter - no matter how good or how cheap.
Nevermind, Ensberg will lose value once the season begins and teams look at his contract when considering his value. The team that traded him will have the pieces with future value.
Out of time studs must be acquired with "discounted" with-time players.
~
The Dodgers fired Moneyballer, Paul DePodesta. From my POV, Tommy Lasorda is a poisonous advisor. The fact he had the McCourts' ear says they are not fit to run a team. The Dodgers system looks extremely strong at the highest levels which will allow the club to make one-year gambles while feeding the roster with potential minimum salary/maximum performance players.
Where is the Bill Parcells of baseball (a manager who sees a teams full of talent and takes it over and gets credit for making it better.) Whomever takes over that club will put a play-off contender on the field. Any Roto player can step in a sign enough talent to make that so.
I wonder if ol' Tommyboy is thinking of getting back into the game?
~
A team made his $7 final year in 2006 Morgan Ensberg available. He wants something supersexy - a cheap stud and hot prospect, both with more time that Ensberg. This type of trade is always a loser for the one who meets the asking price as only a league win can offset the extra time available on the traded player contracts. And a league win is not guaranteed by one hitter - no matter how good or how cheap.
Nevermind, Ensberg will lose value once the season begins and teams look at his contract when considering his value. The team that traded him will have the pieces with future value.
Out of time studs must be acquired with "discounted" with-time players.
Tuesday, October 18, 2005
Chase Utley
I have him at $10 going into his final year. I am going to raise him, likely to $20. That will lock his salary in for 2006, 2007 and 2008.
I received an offer of three draft picks for him. - 4th, 13th and 17th. Normally, I take three picks for a player already priced over $20, but with the lack of stud 2B, I do not see Utley as replacable via the draft at $20. And if I backed off my first ever two-year raise, then $15 would make him untouchable.
With my experience picking minor leaguers, I am confident I can land two decent players of the three picks. (I selected Utley in the 2nd in 2002. I took Miguel Cabrera #7 in 2003.)
What I don't want to lose sight of is the fact that whomever I pick won't be better than utley in 2006. And if Utley performs at his 2005 level, then I'd have to select a Miguel Cabrera to have a chance of breaking even. (A "Miguel Cabrera" is a player taken in the draft and comes up that season and contributes immediately in a no-doubt-about-it-way. Ryan Howard is that type of player. David Wright is too.)
I received an offer of three draft picks for him. - 4th, 13th and 17th. Normally, I take three picks for a player already priced over $20, but with the lack of stud 2B, I do not see Utley as replacable via the draft at $20. And if I backed off my first ever two-year raise, then $15 would make him untouchable.
With my experience picking minor leaguers, I am confident I can land two decent players of the three picks. (I selected Utley in the 2nd in 2002. I took Miguel Cabrera #7 in 2003.)
What I don't want to lose sight of is the fact that whomever I pick won't be better than utley in 2006. And if Utley performs at his 2005 level, then I'd have to select a Miguel Cabrera to have a chance of breaking even. (A "Miguel Cabrera" is a player taken in the draft and comes up that season and contributes immediately in a no-doubt-about-it-way. Ryan Howard is that type of player. David Wright is too.)
Friday, October 14, 2005
Trading
I just can't get myself to make trades right now, and it isn't for a lack of effort.
There is too much uncertainty at this time to deal. Free agents haven't sniffed offers. Teams haven't decided on arbitration. Too much can change, and, therefore, players values can't be reasonably ascertained. As a result, I am very cautious.
What do I give-up to the chance to draft Stephen Drew #1? A full-valued Juan Pierre? (Yes.) And undervalued Adam Everett? (Likely.) How much more than Adam Everett, if he isn't enough? Pierre and Everett? That seems to have passed into too much as Stephen Drew will not play in AZ next season versus the lock on PT (and SB production) for Everett and Pierre.
How much is potential versus real contributions worth in Rotisserie in keeper leagues?
There is too much uncertainty at this time to deal. Free agents haven't sniffed offers. Teams haven't decided on arbitration. Too much can change, and, therefore, players values can't be reasonably ascertained. As a result, I am very cautious.
What do I give-up to the chance to draft Stephen Drew #1? A full-valued Juan Pierre? (Yes.) And undervalued Adam Everett? (Likely.) How much more than Adam Everett, if he isn't enough? Pierre and Everett? That seems to have passed into too much as Stephen Drew will not play in AZ next season versus the lock on PT (and SB production) for Everett and Pierre.
How much is potential versus real contributions worth in Rotisserie in keeper leagues?
Tuesday, October 11, 2005
Post-Season Trades
Bartolo Colon came out of last night's game with a sore shoulder.
The lesson learned is players still get hurt in post-season games and this effects Roto.
My suggestion is to hold-off dealing for any players who are still playing when the games don't count.
The lesson learned is players still get hurt in post-season games and this effects Roto.
My suggestion is to hold-off dealing for any players who are still playing when the games don't count.
Sunday, October 09, 2005
Jorge Sosa
Can he repeat 2005?
One could say he cannot, but I counter that there is not enough data to establish a base performance level for Sosa for several reasons.
He spent three years in Tampa with 99.1, 128.2 and 99.1 innings pitched. Given the dysfunctional baseball practiced there, I would consider a change of scenery as a positive influence.
Also, he moved from the AL, specifically the AL East, to the NL and its 7 batter line-ups. This should be considered a major factor in improved performance.
Third, Sosa was a converted feilder so his professional; pitching experience is less than similarly aged pitchers.
This three variables combined with Leo Mazzone could lead one to believe Sosa may be this good.
Intuitively, I don't think Sosa will repeat his 2005, but I do believe he will remain a quality starting pitcher as good as Mike Hampton.
One could say he cannot, but I counter that there is not enough data to establish a base performance level for Sosa for several reasons.
He spent three years in Tampa with 99.1, 128.2 and 99.1 innings pitched. Given the dysfunctional baseball practiced there, I would consider a change of scenery as a positive influence.
Also, he moved from the AL, specifically the AL East, to the NL and its 7 batter line-ups. This should be considered a major factor in improved performance.
Third, Sosa was a converted feilder so his professional; pitching experience is less than similarly aged pitchers.
This three variables combined with Leo Mazzone could lead one to believe Sosa may be this good.
Intuitively, I don't think Sosa will repeat his 2005, but I do believe he will remain a quality starting pitcher as good as Mike Hampton.
Wednesday, October 05, 2005
NL Finish
I also finished 5th in my NL league. Here the problems were much more difficult to pinpoint.
I'd certainly been better off letting Mike Adams go for $19 or Austin Kearns for $23. In the first case, closers had typically gone for more than $20. Heck Looper went for $24 the year before. I saw an opportunity to get a cheaper closer as a few teams did not have one still with only Brandon Lyon and Jose Mesa available. If I had known neither of them would break $20, I'd have let Adams go. I did throw out Turnbow for $1 at the end, when everyone was going for that, but another team went $2 and I had nothing left.
As I usually do, I sat out the high bidding on hitters figuring a slew of good players would fall into the high teens. That didn't happen unless you consider Ryan Klesko at $17 and Kenny Loften at $18 that type of player. At the time, most of the most attractive hitters were gone and going for $30+, and I had just lost out on Brad Wilkerson for $30. (Yes I took him to $29, and, yes, my season could have been worse if I did get him.)
I decided to get Kearns, a player I had hoped to get for low teens as a player who could have a breakout $25+ year. He did hit a career-high in HR and RBI, but not exactly the way I had projected. Nevermind, the month spent in AAA!
With the slew of AL pitchers making their way to the shortened NL line-ups, I targeted Tim Hudson as the most likely to approach Pedro's dominance in the ratios at a 25% discount. Huddy had been very good in those categories as an A. What I didn't forsee was his new found ability to pitch to contact! (Or whatever it was that saw his WHIP move to the 1.40 range.) He did repeat his 2nd half dominance, though, and I retained him because of it despite offers for him.
I was also on the wrong end of a couple of trades. Prior to season's start, I dealt Chad Tracy for Hee Seop Choi and Jason Nix. If I had known Tracy would set a professional high in HR while qualifying in the OF, I'd have kept him, but at the time, I saw it as a trade of HR/RBI for AVG. Heck, he nearly hit more HR in 2005 than he had in his entire professional careeer combined! (27 vs 32) Don't forget the hype surrounding Conor Jackson and the Glaus signing. Both left Tracy with nowhere to play. Or hindsight-aided, nowhere he had played before as a professional
I used Felipe Lopez in a bail trade and received Adam Everett, Jerry Hairston and Larry Walker. If other players hadn't been included, I would have won this, but unfortunately, is notYahoo! so I had to include two other active hitters. One, Kenny Kelly, worked perfectly. The other did not. JJ Hardy went on a "tear" and hit .289 with 8 HR after I dealt him and his .179 AVG. I eventually dealt Walker for a $2 Ryan Church but that was just some lipstick on a pig.
Some breakout surprises were Chase Utley, who is arguably the top NL Roto 2B, and Jorge Sosa who, despite my thoughts of him as a closer, turned out to be a much better SP while breathing the Leo Mazzone air.
I also benefited from all the pre-draft talk about Ryan Howard being blocked by Thome and grabbed him #6. He was just too good to pass-up at that point. His 21 HR were the 2nd most hit on my team after Utley. (Jason Lane finished with 25, but I dealt him when he had 17.) I did select Matt Cain at #13, too. So in my ever-aware of bail trading, I feel good going forward. ( I also acquired Jeremy Hermida in an off-season deal involving Jeromy Burnitz.)
With only three breakout surprises, my weak, but money-finishing, performance can be partly explained. However, no one decision or player can account for a disappointing season.
I'd certainly been better off letting Mike Adams go for $19 or Austin Kearns for $23. In the first case, closers had typically gone for more than $20. Heck Looper went for $24 the year before. I saw an opportunity to get a cheaper closer as a few teams did not have one still with only Brandon Lyon and Jose Mesa available. If I had known neither of them would break $20, I'd have let Adams go. I did throw out Turnbow for $1 at the end, when everyone was going for that, but another team went $2 and I had nothing left.
As I usually do, I sat out the high bidding on hitters figuring a slew of good players would fall into the high teens. That didn't happen unless you consider Ryan Klesko at $17 and Kenny Loften at $18 that type of player. At the time, most of the most attractive hitters were gone and going for $30+, and I had just lost out on Brad Wilkerson for $30. (Yes I took him to $29, and, yes, my season could have been worse if I did get him.)
I decided to get Kearns, a player I had hoped to get for low teens as a player who could have a breakout $25+ year. He did hit a career-high in HR and RBI, but not exactly the way I had projected. Nevermind, the month spent in AAA!
With the slew of AL pitchers making their way to the shortened NL line-ups, I targeted Tim Hudson as the most likely to approach Pedro's dominance in the ratios at a 25% discount. Huddy had been very good in those categories as an A. What I didn't forsee was his new found ability to pitch to contact! (Or whatever it was that saw his WHIP move to the 1.40 range.) He did repeat his 2nd half dominance, though, and I retained him because of it despite offers for him.
I was also on the wrong end of a couple of trades. Prior to season's start, I dealt Chad Tracy for Hee Seop Choi and Jason Nix. If I had known Tracy would set a professional high in HR while qualifying in the OF, I'd have kept him, but at the time, I saw it as a trade of HR/RBI for AVG. Heck, he nearly hit more HR in 2005 than he had in his entire professional careeer combined! (27 vs 32) Don't forget the hype surrounding Conor Jackson and the Glaus signing. Both left Tracy with nowhere to play. Or hindsight-aided, nowhere he had played before as a professional
I used Felipe Lopez in a bail trade and received Adam Everett, Jerry Hairston and Larry Walker. If other players hadn't been included, I would have won this, but unfortunately, is notYahoo! so I had to include two other active hitters. One, Kenny Kelly, worked perfectly. The other did not. JJ Hardy went on a "tear" and hit .289 with 8 HR after I dealt him and his .179 AVG. I eventually dealt Walker for a $2 Ryan Church but that was just some lipstick on a pig.
Some breakout surprises were Chase Utley, who is arguably the top NL Roto 2B, and Jorge Sosa who, despite my thoughts of him as a closer, turned out to be a much better SP while breathing the Leo Mazzone air.
I also benefited from all the pre-draft talk about Ryan Howard being blocked by Thome and grabbed him #6. He was just too good to pass-up at that point. His 21 HR were the 2nd most hit on my team after Utley. (Jason Lane finished with 25, but I dealt him when he had 17.) I did select Matt Cain at #13, too. So in my ever-aware of bail trading, I feel good going forward. ( I also acquired Jeremy Hermida in an off-season deal involving Jeromy Burnitz.)
With only three breakout surprises, my weak, but money-finishing, performance can be partly explained. However, no one decision or player can account for a disappointing season.
Monday, October 03, 2005
Finish
5th in my AL thanks is great part to Curt Schilling, Jarrod Washburn and Bob Wickman. (8, 8, and 0 wins, respectively, for 2 points total in wins.)
Also, Curt Schilling's horrendous ratios.
Other than that, I had 9 points in HR, RBI and AVG and 10 points in SB for hitting. For pitching, I finished with 9 points in Saves, 8 points in ERA (Schilling be damned!), the aforementioned 2 in Wins, and 2 points in WHIP.
Overall, a decent season as I had to overcome the immediate drop to the lower third in the standings for most of the 1st half. I also benefitted from an astute eye for call-ups as I grabbed Jonny Gomes and Scott Baker for $5 each. Either will get a good return this off-season.
Amongst my disappointments are missing that Gerald Laird was not on the active roster when I drafted him for $1. Chris Widger did just fine as a do-no-harm 2nd catcher, though. Although Ichiro had a good year (15 HR .303 AVG and 33 SB), I counted on a much higher AVG (not .370) and a couple handfuls more SB. Either of which would have made a difference of a couple points.
I projected incorrectly on Ichiro, Schilling and Washburn and did not receive any contributions in Saves from Tom Gordon or JJ Putz.
Amongst my successes were trading Tony Womack right after his 14 SB tear for Craig Monroe, drafting Emil Brown for $3, waiving him for Gomes at $5, and claiming Brown off waivers afterwards. Also, I didn't trade any relievers were turned into closers later in the season. ( I just hate that.)
Also, Curt Schilling's horrendous ratios.
Other than that, I had 9 points in HR, RBI and AVG and 10 points in SB for hitting. For pitching, I finished with 9 points in Saves, 8 points in ERA (Schilling be damned!), the aforementioned 2 in Wins, and 2 points in WHIP.
Overall, a decent season as I had to overcome the immediate drop to the lower third in the standings for most of the 1st half. I also benefitted from an astute eye for call-ups as I grabbed Jonny Gomes and Scott Baker for $5 each. Either will get a good return this off-season.
Amongst my disappointments are missing that Gerald Laird was not on the active roster when I drafted him for $1. Chris Widger did just fine as a do-no-harm 2nd catcher, though. Although Ichiro had a good year (15 HR .303 AVG and 33 SB), I counted on a much higher AVG (not .370) and a couple handfuls more SB. Either of which would have made a difference of a couple points.
I projected incorrectly on Ichiro, Schilling and Washburn and did not receive any contributions in Saves from Tom Gordon or JJ Putz.
Amongst my successes were trading Tony Womack right after his 14 SB tear for Craig Monroe, drafting Emil Brown for $3, waiving him for Gomes at $5, and claiming Brown off waivers afterwards. Also, I didn't trade any relievers were turned into closers later in the season. ( I just hate that.)
Friday, September 30, 2005
Denard Span
I've got 5 on my NL minor league draft list (at least 19 more to go).
On my AL list is the most obvious, Brandon Wood. Howie Kendrick is there, as is Jered Weaver.
Alex Gordon is defintely there.
Denard Span is the one I anticipate being available when my turn comes up at #8. Jason Kubel will get all the attention (rightly so), but Span is a SB with a very good OBP and an All-Star blocking him in Torii Hunter.
If Hunter does believe he will become prohibitively expensive for the Twins, Span will be the obvious choice to take over. 2007 looks good.
As important is he will generate the type of coverage in 2006 that will make him a desirable piece in a trade.
My top picks aren't as developed as my NL ones because I am picking so late in the round.
On my AL list is the most obvious, Brandon Wood. Howie Kendrick is there, as is Jered Weaver.
Alex Gordon is defintely there.
Denard Span is the one I anticipate being available when my turn comes up at #8. Jason Kubel will get all the attention (rightly so), but Span is a SB with a very good OBP and an All-Star blocking him in Torii Hunter.
If Hunter does believe he will become prohibitively expensive for the Twins, Span will be the obvious choice to take over. 2007 looks good.
As important is he will generate the type of coverage in 2006 that will make him a desirable piece in a trade.
My top picks aren't as developed as my NL ones because I am picking so late in the round.
Greg Maddux
His days as a high teens/ low twenties SP are over.
The only things keeping him at the level was reputation, WHIP and the solidity of 15 W.
The first and third are too much to overcome the second, and at 1.20, even that is not considered outstanding.
Based on his 2005 numbers (13 W, 4.18 ERA and 1.20 WHIP), I place his value in the low double digits. Anything more will be a reflection of reputation (that and a $.25 will get you a NYPost) and the hope that his WHIP will remain at 1.20 over 200 innings, but who would chance that after seeing the ERA rise the past three years and the W total decline?
The only things keeping him at the level was reputation, WHIP and the solidity of 15 W.
The first and third are too much to overcome the second, and at 1.20, even that is not considered outstanding.
Based on his 2005 numbers (13 W, 4.18 ERA and 1.20 WHIP), I place his value in the low double digits. Anything more will be a reflection of reputation (that and a $.25 will get you a NYPost) and the hope that his WHIP will remain at 1.20 over 200 innings, but who would chance that after seeing the ERA rise the past three years and the W total decline?
Thursday, September 29, 2005
Curt Schilling
No matter what he does on Sunday, he was a major contributor to many lost seasons. 200 innings of 3.00/1.10 with 15+ wins is what each team expected for their $30+ draft investment.
What they got was 1997 Norm Charlton!
I can't imagine any team protecting him next draft, so he will bear watching.
What they got was 1997 Norm Charlton!
I can't imagine any team protecting him next draft, so he will bear watching.
Wednesday, September 28, 2005
Tuesday, September 27, 2005
Nelson Cruz
He certainly had the numbers and success at AA and AAA this season to merit serious Top 10 draft status next Spring.
I do wonder where he will play as Lee, Clark, and the surprisingly healthy, Geoff Jenkins seem locked into the three OF spots. Plus, Corey Hart is also currently ahead of him
But 27/81/19/.386 OBP/.540 SLG is too good to pass-up. He could be as high as #3 in my draft.
By my tally, the order is Zimmerman, Drew, Pence, Sanders and Cruz with Cruz looking better than Pence right now. But with 6+ months to go, this list is sure to change.
I do wonder where he will play as Lee, Clark, and the surprisingly healthy, Geoff Jenkins seem locked into the three OF spots. Plus, Corey Hart is also currently ahead of him
But 27/81/19/.386 OBP/.540 SLG is too good to pass-up. He could be as high as #3 in my draft.
By my tally, the order is Zimmerman, Drew, Pence, Sanders and Cruz with Cruz looking better than Pence right now. But with 6+ months to go, this list is sure to change.
Monday, September 26, 2005
Aaron Heilman
He's saved two of the last three wins for the Mets with Ol' Roberto Hernandez garnering the other.
As I picked-up Heilman to replace Tyler Walker, I have a vested interest in this development. While I did consider the possibility of Heilman closing (every reliever I pick-up begins with that scenario), I mostly wanted him for decent middle relief innings with the possibility of a couple wins.
After adding him to my team, I began to read the local NY sports columnists, and they would suggest Heilman as the closer. My hopes rose.
Unfortunately, I do not see the Mets going into next year wanting to build off this season's success with an unproven closer. Add in that there should be several available (Wagner, Farnsworth, Urbina, Ryan, Dempster, Jones, Gordon, Wickman, Mesa, Hoffman), my hopes are seriously tempered.
In Heilman's favor would be the money necessary to sign one of these proven closers could be used to address 1B, 2B and C either via free agency or a contract trade.
As I picked-up Heilman to replace Tyler Walker, I have a vested interest in this development. While I did consider the possibility of Heilman closing (every reliever I pick-up begins with that scenario), I mostly wanted him for decent middle relief innings with the possibility of a couple wins.
After adding him to my team, I began to read the local NY sports columnists, and they would suggest Heilman as the closer. My hopes rose.
Unfortunately, I do not see the Mets going into next year wanting to build off this season's success with an unproven closer. Add in that there should be several available (Wagner, Farnsworth, Urbina, Ryan, Dempster, Jones, Gordon, Wickman, Mesa, Hoffman), my hopes are seriously tempered.
In Heilman's favor would be the money necessary to sign one of these proven closers could be used to address 1B, 2B and C either via free agency or a contract trade.
Richie Sexson
How about this nugget from the end of this notebook:
"Richie Sexson....last Safeco home run, a first-inning solo shot in the first inning of the Mariners' home game against the Angels on Sept. 14, was his 20th at home."
Any questions about hitting at Safeco have been answered.
Now onto Adrian beltre.....
"Richie Sexson....last Safeco home run, a first-inning solo shot in the first inning of the Mariners' home game against the Angels on Sept. 14, was his 20th at home."
Any questions about hitting at Safeco have been answered.
Now onto Adrian beltre.....
Friday, September 23, 2005
Fantasy Baseball - Fantasy Baseball News from Rotoworld.com
Nate Stephens list for 2006 is interesting. On one of my teams, I have Church, Howard, Kearns and Choi. The latter three for the entire 2005 season.
I dealt Lane in mid-August for a better contract Juan Encarnacion and Cory Patterson, and dealt Hardy in early June.
All said, I see both Hardy and Choi as great sleeper picks in 2006. Hardy will be one because his good second half cannot make-up for his putrid first. While his second half numbers will launch him on to everyone's off-season sleeper list, his overall numbers will be so bad as to make him a late draft player regardless. There will be too many other players listed above him.
Choi is perfect as a sleeper. He has disappointed teams since 2001 after appearing in Baseball America's Top Ten for the Cubs. With that kind of disappointment history, there will be very few teams in anyone's league who have not suffered at Choi's hands - the team that originally drafted him in the minor league draft, the team he was dealt to in a bail trade, the team that obtained him in another bail trade in 2003, the team that traded him again after the head injury, the team that protected him in 2004 and then traded him after his trade to LA, the team that dealt him in the off-season after his Septemebr 2005 benching, the team that protected him in 2005, the team that traded him in 2005.....Oh wait, it finally stopped with me.
I see him going for a $1 or $2 at the end of the draft and delivering 15+ HR in 2006.
Nate Stephens list for 2006 is interesting. On one of my teams, I have Church, Howard, Kearns and Choi. The latter three for the entire 2005 season.
I dealt Lane in mid-August for a better contract Juan Encarnacion and Cory Patterson, and dealt Hardy in early June.
All said, I see both Hardy and Choi as great sleeper picks in 2006. Hardy will be one because his good second half cannot make-up for his putrid first. While his second half numbers will launch him on to everyone's off-season sleeper list, his overall numbers will be so bad as to make him a late draft player regardless. There will be too many other players listed above him.
Choi is perfect as a sleeper. He has disappointed teams since 2001 after appearing in Baseball America's Top Ten for the Cubs. With that kind of disappointment history, there will be very few teams in anyone's league who have not suffered at Choi's hands - the team that originally drafted him in the minor league draft, the team he was dealt to in a bail trade, the team that obtained him in another bail trade in 2003, the team that traded him again after the head injury, the team that protected him in 2004 and then traded him after his trade to LA, the team that dealt him in the off-season after his Septemebr 2005 benching, the team that protected him in 2005, the team that traded him in 2005.....Oh wait, it finally stopped with me.
I see him going for a $1 or $2 at the end of the draft and delivering 15+ HR in 2006.
Marcus Sanders
Baseball America - Stats
Here is another NL prospect on my Roto draft list. His 57 SB and .407 OBP have me thinking 2B in 2007 when Bonds is gone and Alou is gone and Durham is gone and Snow is gone and.......
You get the picture. San Francisco will be in a major retooling in 2007 and I think Marcus Sanders could be right in the mix if he comes close to duplicating his 2005 numbers in 2006.
And with that kind of speed, he needn't even start in order to be a good Roto player.
Tentatively, he is #4 for me. (The Jason Lane thing! He should be ahead of Pence!!!)
Here is another NL prospect on my Roto draft list. His 57 SB and .407 OBP have me thinking 2B in 2007 when Bonds is gone and Alou is gone and Durham is gone and Snow is gone and.......
You get the picture. San Francisco will be in a major retooling in 2007 and I think Marcus Sanders could be right in the mix if he comes close to duplicating his 2005 numbers in 2006.
And with that kind of speed, he needn't even start in order to be a good Roto player.
Tentatively, he is #4 for me. (The Jason Lane thing! He should be ahead of Pence!!!)
Hunter Pence
I am always thinking who I want to grab next Spring in my various minor league drafts.
In the NL, Stephen Drew and Ryan Zimmerman appear to be the top two candidates with Zimmerman possibly making the Nats Opening Day roster.
Given the 3rd pick is my worst case scenario, I'd prefer to have three or four names lined-up for that spot.
Hunter Pence is definitely right there. (Whaaaaat? You're going to take another Astros OF prospect who can mash and risk waiting three or four years a la Jason Lane?)
He hit 31 HR in Single A this year which primes him to begin next season in AA. This is close enough to the majors to envision a call-up in 2006 or a shot in 2007. (I know the Jason lane thing again.)
He also hit over .300 which leads to me hope he will have a decent OBP regardless of non-Hermida-esque walk rates.
Anyhow, he is currently at my #3 spot after Zimmerman and Drew.
In the NL, Stephen Drew and Ryan Zimmerman appear to be the top two candidates with Zimmerman possibly making the Nats Opening Day roster.
Given the 3rd pick is my worst case scenario, I'd prefer to have three or four names lined-up for that spot.
Hunter Pence is definitely right there. (Whaaaaat? You're going to take another Astros OF prospect who can mash and risk waiting three or four years a la Jason Lane?)
He hit 31 HR in Single A this year which primes him to begin next season in AA. This is close enough to the majors to envision a call-up in 2006 or a shot in 2007. (I know the Jason lane thing again.)
He also hit over .300 which leads to me hope he will have a decent OBP regardless of non-Hermida-esque walk rates.
Anyhow, he is currently at my #3 spot after Zimmerman and Drew.
Wednesday, September 21, 2005
Matt Holliday
Two HRs and 8 RBIs will always grab headlines in baseball.
What will grab Roto players is the great numbers he has posted in an injury-shortened season - .307 AVG 17 HRs, 77 RBIs and 11 SB in 430 ABs (113 G).
This leads to an easy 2006 projection of 26 HR, 116 RBI and 17 SB. And, no doubt, some team will project that for 2006. Holliday is also likely to be inexpensive as he was not a highly-regarded prospect in 2003. That salary, along with that projection, will have teams hot and heavy for him this off-season.
And that team which gets him will likely fall flat next year and wonder what happened.
What will not be given full weight is the fact that the league will adjust to the new clean-up hitter in Colorado and will see the Rox were surprising good in the latter half of the season. This will focus other teams' competitive energies
Is there any reason to think Holliday will be able to build upon this season's production after the league has a full off-season to look for weaknesses to exploit?
I do not think so.
What will grab Roto players is the great numbers he has posted in an injury-shortened season - .307 AVG 17 HRs, 77 RBIs and 11 SB in 430 ABs (113 G).
This leads to an easy 2006 projection of 26 HR, 116 RBI and 17 SB. And, no doubt, some team will project that for 2006. Holliday is also likely to be inexpensive as he was not a highly-regarded prospect in 2003. That salary, along with that projection, will have teams hot and heavy for him this off-season.
And that team which gets him will likely fall flat next year and wonder what happened.
What will not be given full weight is the fact that the league will adjust to the new clean-up hitter in Colorado and will see the Rox were surprising good in the latter half of the season. This will focus other teams' competitive energies
Is there any reason to think Holliday will be able to build upon this season's production after the league has a full off-season to look for weaknesses to exploit?
I do not think so.
Tuesday, September 20, 2005
Craig Hansen
Man, the off-season hype will rival the release of a new Harry Potter book if Hansen pitches the remainder of the year like he did last night.
He may be a prime candidate to bring up early in the draft so the most money possible can chase him.
He may be a prime candidate to bring up early in the draft so the most money possible can chase him.
Damaso Marte
So let me see if I have this straight.
Last week, Chisox manager, Ozzie Guillen, basically tells Marte to take a hike, and this week he is in a closer committee vs lefty batters?
Dustin Hermanson loses his job, and Bobby Jenks is now in the closer committee vs right-handed hitters?
I have a baaaaaaaaaaaaad feeling about this.
Last week, Chisox manager, Ozzie Guillen, basically tells Marte to take a hike, and this week he is in a closer committee vs lefty batters?
Dustin Hermanson loses his job, and Bobby Jenks is now in the closer committee vs right-handed hitters?
I have a baaaaaaaaaaaaad feeling about this.
Monday, September 19, 2005
After a busy weekend -stag on Friday, Mets-Braves on Saturday and Jets-Dolphins on Sunday, I feel I can maybe, possibly get back to some blogging.
A note from Saturday: Mike Jacobs' HR was a bomb!
As I watch the season end in personal disappointment, I feel my energy sapping for regular season posting. A sort of learned helplessness behavior.
Some good news this AM was Jorge Sosa's elevation to the #3 starter on the Braves. As I hold him at $1, he should provide some interesting bait beginning in two weeks.
I have marked as a big 2005 Bright Spot my dealing of an out-of-time Jason Isrignhausen for $10 Dontrelle Willis. This was a perfect example of making a trade I was guaranteed to win regardless of what happened in Saves.
Which, in a spot brightening way, worked perfectly as I rode Tyler Walker, picked-up Duaner Sanchez and dealt Jerry Hairston for Armando Benitez on 8/15.
Hence, maintaining my spot in Saves while improving in Ws, WHIP and ERA.
Another lesson was "punting" saves. This only worked, though, because I watch the free agent pool looking for closing candidates like a hawk over a meadow looking for mice. If I punted Saves and passively waited for a pitcher on my staff to become a closer, then it would have failed.
Dontrelle's 13 Ws were much more than I expected at the time of the trade. (Should be 14 by now, but Cy Young resume buttressing by Mckeon hurt on Saturday.)
A note from Saturday: Mike Jacobs' HR was a bomb!
As I watch the season end in personal disappointment, I feel my energy sapping for regular season posting. A sort of learned helplessness behavior.
Some good news this AM was Jorge Sosa's elevation to the #3 starter on the Braves. As I hold him at $1, he should provide some interesting bait beginning in two weeks.
I have marked as a big 2005 Bright Spot my dealing of an out-of-time Jason Isrignhausen for $10 Dontrelle Willis. This was a perfect example of making a trade I was guaranteed to win regardless of what happened in Saves.
Which, in a spot brightening way, worked perfectly as I rode Tyler Walker, picked-up Duaner Sanchez and dealt Jerry Hairston for Armando Benitez on 8/15.
Hence, maintaining my spot in Saves while improving in Ws, WHIP and ERA.
Another lesson was "punting" saves. This only worked, though, because I watch the free agent pool looking for closing candidates like a hawk over a meadow looking for mice. If I punted Saves and passively waited for a pitcher on my staff to become a closer, then it would have failed.
Dontrelle's 13 Ws were much more than I expected at the time of the trade. (Should be 14 by now, but Cy Young resume buttressing by Mckeon hurt on Saturday.)
Friday, September 16, 2005
Ronny Cedeno
A 3rd post on Ronny Cedeno.
He is out for the season and currently carries a $10 free agent pool salary.
The issue is whether to waive him and pick-up another player from the pool.
He is defintely a "pre-sleeper". GM Jim Hendry says he will be in the 2006 line-up at either 2B or SS. However, Dusty baker is the manager and Todd Walker will be at 2B, and Neifi Perez at SS.
I do not see any way Cedeno is given everyday ABs, and I suspect other teams in my league will conclude similarly if they are aware of Cedeno at all.
As such, I believe he can be waived this season and obtained at the draft next year for less than $10.
A player whom I equate Cedeno to right now in terms of draft day salary is Felipe Lopez of Cincinnati. He was in a similar situation as Cedeno - purported to be in the 2005 lineup- and he went for $5 at the end of the draft. Also, FLo had two veterans with which to compete in D'Angelo Jimenez at 2B and Rich Aurilia at SS and the comparison becomes eerily similar.
While projecting any unknown quantity to breakout like Flo 2005 (20/70/13/.280) is silly, I can see Cedeno being Bill Hall helpful
With the Crusty Dusty factor, I think $5 is the upper limit of his draft salary with a possibility of undrafted being the lower one.
He is out for the season and currently carries a $10 free agent pool salary.
The issue is whether to waive him and pick-up another player from the pool.
He is defintely a "pre-sleeper". GM Jim Hendry says he will be in the 2006 line-up at either 2B or SS. However, Dusty baker is the manager and Todd Walker will be at 2B, and Neifi Perez at SS.
I do not see any way Cedeno is given everyday ABs, and I suspect other teams in my league will conclude similarly if they are aware of Cedeno at all.
As such, I believe he can be waived this season and obtained at the draft next year for less than $10.
A player whom I equate Cedeno to right now in terms of draft day salary is Felipe Lopez of Cincinnati. He was in a similar situation as Cedeno - purported to be in the 2005 lineup- and he went for $5 at the end of the draft. Also, FLo had two veterans with which to compete in D'Angelo Jimenez at 2B and Rich Aurilia at SS and the comparison becomes eerily similar.
While projecting any unknown quantity to breakout like Flo 2005 (20/70/13/.280) is silly, I can see Cedeno being Bill Hall helpful
With the Crusty Dusty factor, I think $5 is the upper limit of his draft salary with a possibility of undrafted being the lower one.
Thursday, September 15, 2005
Only two/three weeks to go and the off-season trading period begins.
Assuming your league has a trading deadline, the first few days after the season ends are a good time to acquire players who you think are primed for a step-up in performance but have not yet been identified as "sleepers" by the various internet Roto experts. This is os because their is likely a build-up of unspent trading energy in the league. Take advantage of it because once those "sleepers" start being named, the price tags will skyrocket.
Francisco Liriano will be no easier to grab than the first few days of October. And even then, I suspect he will be fetching a $15+ value.
Staying with the Minnesota 2006 rotation, Scott Baker will come cheaper the sooner you can acquire him as I see the nominal starting five as Santana, Radke, Silva, Liriano, Baker.
As I shift gears into off-season mode, I will post more players who I think fit this criteria - "pre-sleepers", to coin a phrase.
Assuming your league has a trading deadline, the first few days after the season ends are a good time to acquire players who you think are primed for a step-up in performance but have not yet been identified as "sleepers" by the various internet Roto experts. This is os because their is likely a build-up of unspent trading energy in the league. Take advantage of it because once those "sleepers" start being named, the price tags will skyrocket.
Francisco Liriano will be no easier to grab than the first few days of October. And even then, I suspect he will be fetching a $15+ value.
Staying with the Minnesota 2006 rotation, Scott Baker will come cheaper the sooner you can acquire him as I see the nominal starting five as Santana, Radke, Silva, Liriano, Baker.
As I shift gears into off-season mode, I will post more players who I think fit this criteria - "pre-sleepers", to coin a phrase.
All Star Stats
After 145 or so games of the 2005 Rotisserie season, All Star Stats has finally concluded their live scoring sucked. As VP Cheney would say, "Big Time."
I am at a loss how they stay in business with such crappy customer knowledge and fees that are so exhorbitant that they had better worry AG Spitzer will turn on them in hopes of capturing the fantasy vote.
I am at a loss how they stay in business with such crappy customer knowledge and fees that are so exhorbitant that they had better worry AG Spitzer will turn on them in hopes of capturing the fantasy vote.
Wednesday, September 14, 2005
2006 Huston Street
Who will be the reliever in 2006 that makes the other teams say, "I knew he'd be the closer! Why didn't I go one more dollar!?"
Huston Street was this year's reliever. He went for $12.
What needs to be recalled is Octavio Dotel was the Oakland closer at the time with only conjecture that he'd be dealt mid-season at which time, Street could be elevated into the role of closer.
As the A's were in the playoff chase, there was little chance Dotel, barring injury, would have been dealt. And if that had been the case, then there'd be no second-guessing on Street.
Would Street have been protected in 2006 at $12? Yes as he would be entering the spring as the nominal closer. What would not have occurred is his presence on the original team that drafted him. With no closing in 2005, he'd have been traded in a push toward the 2005 money.
As for that reliever who will be in Street's shoes in 2006 (or Francisco Rodriguez's circa 2004), it will be Craig Hansen. With Foulke having been awful this season, he will be the one of the returning closers on the shakiest footing.
Huston Street was this year's reliever. He went for $12.
What needs to be recalled is Octavio Dotel was the Oakland closer at the time with only conjecture that he'd be dealt mid-season at which time, Street could be elevated into the role of closer.
As the A's were in the playoff chase, there was little chance Dotel, barring injury, would have been dealt. And if that had been the case, then there'd be no second-guessing on Street.
Would Street have been protected in 2006 at $12? Yes as he would be entering the spring as the nominal closer. What would not have occurred is his presence on the original team that drafted him. With no closing in 2005, he'd have been traded in a push toward the 2005 money.
As for that reliever who will be in Street's shoes in 2006 (or Francisco Rodriguez's circa 2004), it will be Craig Hansen. With Foulke having been awful this season, he will be the one of the returning closers on the shakiest footing.
Monday, September 12, 2005
Pirates open up closer role - PittsburghLIVE.com
Go get Salomon Torres, and if available, Mike Gonzalez.
Keep in mind that their is a new manager and he may be more predictable than the Tike Redmen-ophile, Lloyd McClendon.
Keep in mind that their is a new manager and he may be more predictable than the Tike Redmen-ophile, Lloyd McClendon.
Thursday, September 08, 2005
Steroids have staying power
Giambi has admitted to using Deca Duabolin. Experts concur with that it could remain in the system for 16+ months because it is oil-based and gets into fat cells.
Giambi has already been tested for steroids and this was not uncovered.
It certainly lends credence to his assertion that he is no longer taking steroids.
Whether he meant that steroid will remain unanswerable.
Giambi has already been tested for steroids and this was not uncovered.
It certainly lends credence to his assertion that he is no longer taking steroids.
Whether he meant that steroid will remain unanswerable.
Wednesday, September 07, 2005
Scot Shields
He has 19 decisions as a reliever????
He is the 2005 example of why middle relievers are better than starting pitchers on bad teams.
Any starter on KC have 8 Ws? a 2.93 ERA? 1.16 WHIP? 84 Ks? (Just kidding. Greinke has 96.)
He is the 2005 example of why middle relievers are better than starting pitchers on bad teams.
Any starter on KC have 8 Ws? a 2.93 ERA? 1.16 WHIP? 84 Ks? (Just kidding. Greinke has 96.)
Monday, September 05, 2005
Ronny Cedeno
Recently, I read something quite dismissive of Ronny Cedeno. (Why isn't there a link? isn't that why you blog?)
Apparently, Dusty baker did not. To quote:
"He's pretty close to me,'' Baker said. "Yeah, he's real close. He can run. He can hit-and-run. He works hard and is respectful -- confident but not arrogant. He has to work on getting his throw truer. His throw now kind of runs into the runner. Those are things we have to work on and correct.
"I have always wanted to have a Rookie of the Year. I know how much it means to the organization and the person because I could have been Rookie of the Year and wasn't. He's going to be a fine player. It's a matter of when we have to clear a spot for him, and do we hold somebody in reserve in case he doesn't do it?''
Seems I was closer to the truth than that unlinked sports writer. And considerably sooner (6/29/05).
Apparently, Dusty baker did not. To quote:
"He's pretty close to me,'' Baker said. "Yeah, he's real close. He can run. He can hit-and-run. He works hard and is respectful -- confident but not arrogant. He has to work on getting his throw truer. His throw now kind of runs into the runner. Those are things we have to work on and correct.
"I have always wanted to have a Rookie of the Year. I know how much it means to the organization and the person because I could have been Rookie of the Year and wasn't. He's going to be a fine player. It's a matter of when we have to clear a spot for him, and do we hold somebody in reserve in case he doesn't do it?''
Seems I was closer to the truth than that unlinked sports writer. And considerably sooner (6/29/05).
Sunday, September 04, 2005
Matt Cain
He threw a gem against the D'backs today. One could say the competition isn't that great.
I'd counter that Cain's performance versus his division rivals is a valuable piece of information as the unbalanced schedule will get him up to 25% of his starts against those teams.
If I had to put a guess on Cain's 2006 performance, I would say an NL-equivalent of Scott Kazmir. This would mean 10-15% more strikeouts than SK and an ERA and Ratio reduced by the same. Add in a favorable pitchers park for half his starts and a 3.75 ERA is not out of the realm of possibility.
I'd counter that Cain's performance versus his division rivals is a valuable piece of information as the unbalanced schedule will get him up to 25% of his starts against those teams.
If I had to put a guess on Cain's 2006 performance, I would say an NL-equivalent of Scott Kazmir. This would mean 10-15% more strikeouts than SK and an ERA and Ratio reduced by the same. Add in a favorable pitchers park for half his starts and a 3.75 ERA is not out of the realm of possibility.
Thursday, September 01, 2005
Baseball America - Prospect Hot Sheet
Baseball America - Prospect Hot Sheet
A quick look at the Top 20 and you only find 8 NL-ers, and of those, three are pitchers and three play in short-season leagues.
The hitters are AAA Ryan Zimmerman who I do not believe will be in AAA on Opening Day 2006, AA Lastings Milledge (currently blocked by Carlos Beltran), High A catcher Jarrod Saltamacchia (effectively blocked by Brian McCann) and short-season Of Andrew McCutchen. (Let's get him to High A before thinking about who is blocking him.)
(Seemingly all the other players are Angels.)
A quick look at the Top 20 and you only find 8 NL-ers, and of those, three are pitchers and three play in short-season leagues.
The hitters are AAA Ryan Zimmerman who I do not believe will be in AAA on Opening Day 2006, AA Lastings Milledge (currently blocked by Carlos Beltran), High A catcher Jarrod Saltamacchia (effectively blocked by Brian McCann) and short-season Of Andrew McCutchen. (Let's get him to High A before thinking about who is blocking him.)
(Seemingly all the other players are Angels.)
Lede Continued
I forgot Edwin Encarnacion and Lance Niekro.
If the NL rookie list is expanded to include players in their first full-year of full-time PT or 2nd year like David Wright, Jose Reyes, Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, Garret Atkins, Khahil Greene, Chad Tracy, Felipe Lopez, Jason Lane, Jose Castillo, then you have an even more impressive list of future All-Stars.
One or two years experience for a list like this means there are fewer ready-for-the majors players at AA and AAA.
It also means there won't be openings at the major-league level until the end of the decade when this wave become arbitration-eligible and/ free agent-eligible.
That leads me to conclude the future of the large market teams is poor as there won't be a lot of stud free agents available during those years.
From a Roto POV, it means the NL minor league drafts will not have much low-lying fruit, so unless you are very knowledgable about the minors, you should not be amassing picks in trades. If anything, you should be trading them.
If the NL rookie list is expanded to include players in their first full-year of full-time PT or 2nd year like David Wright, Jose Reyes, Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, Garret Atkins, Khahil Greene, Chad Tracy, Felipe Lopez, Jason Lane, Jose Castillo, then you have an even more impressive list of future All-Stars.
One or two years experience for a list like this means there are fewer ready-for-the majors players at AA and AAA.
It also means there won't be openings at the major-league level until the end of the decade when this wave become arbitration-eligible and/ free agent-eligible.
That leads me to conclude the future of the large market teams is poor as there won't be a lot of stud free agents available during those years.
From a Roto POV, it means the NL minor league drafts will not have much low-lying fruit, so unless you are very knowledgable about the minors, you should not be amassing picks in trades. If anything, you should be trading them.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)