Monday, April 18, 2005

Why Punting Saves Does Not Work

I wrote this in response to a team who claims to be able to ignore Saves at the draft.

"We're #3! We're #3!

If that logic worked then teams would win every year doing it, but like the Red Sox found out and the Blue Jays are too stupid to realize, you need closers/saves.

Once the draft ends, the number of quality players who become available in the course of the season is one or two at a time, and there are 11 other teams looking for the same thing.

While drafting, a team won't over pay for a third closer, but that same team will take that third closer out of the pool because that is the best player available to fill a pitching slot."

Saturday, April 09, 2005

Joe opts to save Rivera for later

New York Daily News - Baseball - Joe opts to save Rivera for later

Mo doesn't throw all winter.

He takes a week to get into his first ST game.

He throws a couple games and is shut down with elbow bursitus for a couple weeks.

He returns and blows his first two save opps.

The Yanks have an off-day.

The next game Tore decides before the game that he will "rest."

Quack. Quack. What am I?

Tuesday, April 05, 2005

Available Players

A common misconception about drafting is that every player who could go for $30+ will go for $30+. As you study the lists of available players, you no doubt see several who can go that high.

The fact is that only a few will break that mark. The others will go for the mid-$20s and inevitably, a player who is worth a mid-$20 bid will fall into the teens.

Why? Money and open roster slots. There is only so much money available to address every team need via the draft. Do you go $31 for Jeff Bagwell when you need a catcher and speedy OF, two position with significantly less available talent? No, you do not. If several teams use the same meme, then 1B will go cheaper at the end of the draft for the simple reason that other teams spent their money on positions of greater perceived need.

Open roster slots also affect the prices. In a 12-team league, their are only 24 rosters slots for a 1B (1B and CR). Going into the drat half or more of these slots will be filled. This limits where a 1B can be placed. With limited space, teams may not be able to take players as high as you would project.

The DH/UT slot is also available but their is no reasonable expectation that it won't be filled by a OF/2B/SS/C or other non-1B player.

With tthis as background, one should think of the number of the highest priced players as "decaying" rapidly - a couple $40+, a handful of $30+ and then the vast majority going in the $20 +/-$5 range.

This doesn't not say that you won't overpay for a player because you will. What it does say is that the player you're likely to overpay for is the $15 one who goes for $21.

Braden Looper

Thrown for a loop or some variation was the headline screaming from the backpages of the NYC dailies. This only exacerbated the agita of the Roto players who protected Looper.

As one, I am here to reduce the need for antacids.

Kris Benson was put o the DL with a pectoral tear. (Reduce? I have him too!)

What this means is the Mets are short a 5th starter right now (after the idiotic move to deal Matt Ginter for a reliever who wasn't going to make the Tigers bullpen! Once the sycophancy of the NY media wears off, people will realize that Minaya is a horrible trader.)

And what that means is the MEts will have to trade for a starter - not a closer. Looper is safe for now.

Also keep in mind that Trevor Hoffman was worse yesterday, and no Padre fans are looking to jump from any bridges. (Nor is John Kruk screaming on Sportscenter that the Pads need to get a closer as he did about the Mets yesterday.)

Remember every closer blows at least one save per season in an extraordinary fashion. Doing it on the first day or during the first week of the season changes nothing.

Friday, April 01, 2005


Eric Gagne

Wow. Yahncy Brazoban rockets up everyone's Roto list, if available. However, in deep leagues, he was likely sitting on some team's active roster after being plucked from the pool late last season.

The question is whether he will close for a month or for the season. (There is little question Gagne, he of the newly-minted $19.5 MM contract over two years, closes immediately upon his return.)

For the team who has him for $10 (the typical pool salary), you must keep him as he was likely worthy of a $5 bid on ratios alone, With two weeks or more as the closer, he is easily worth $10.

The sticky question is what to pay for him in a trade. As the closer for the season, he fetches a $20 hitter. For a couple weeks? JT Snow and a pick?

What Brazoban gets in trade should be worth about $16. That is what he would go for in a draft. Clearly, that is mitigated by the uncertainty of time he spends as a closer.

Just as important are the other bullpen arms. Is Duaner Sanchez ready? Elmer Dessens, a failed SP? While this seems unlikely, remember Brazoban has very limited MLB experience and was only converted to pitching a few years ago.

Man that Brown for Weaver/Brazoban trade looks worse by the day.