Wednesday, August 31, 2005

Jeremy Hermida

Wow. A grand slam in his first major league AB. SI jumped the gun on Francouer. A couple weeks wait and both would have made a great cover.

I've been thinking about next year's NL minor league draft and can not come up with sure fire studs. Stephen Drew and Ryan Zimmerman are the obvious ones. Carlos Quentin, too, but I wouldn't expect him not to have been taken last draft. The same with Joel Guzman. Andy LaRoche was takne in my NL draft but I can see him not having been taken in most other ones.

But when I think about all the rookies this season, I understand better. Jeff Francouer. Jeremy hermida. Ryan Howard. Matt Cain. Brian McCann. Victor Diaz. Ryan Church. Andy Marte. Conor Jackson. Willy Tavares. Richie Weeks. Prince Fielder. Cory Hart. Zach Duke. Brad Eldred. Matt Murton. Brad Hawpe. Clint Barmes.

That is quite a wave of futre All-Stars. Maybe the minors need to rebuild its talent base?

Deivi Cruz

This acquistion definitely puts a crimp in the possibility of Ryan Zimmerman making a meaningful September contribution, and it certainly squashes my dreams of him appearing more frequently at SS and being eligible there for the 2006 draft and season.

Steve Finley

To the bench. He has been so bad that he is not even a part in a platoon - DH or CF.

I'm going to stick with an expected draft price of $18, but this situation definitely has me thinking lower.

Tuesday, August 30, 2005

Bill Hall

Bill Hall

Here is a player to sell high this off-season. He is going to be very close to 20/20 with 2B/SS/3B eligibility.

I have no doubt those factors will be too hard to ignore for at least one other owner.

The reason to trade him for all you can get is a direct function of 2006 playing time. With Weeks at 2B until the end of the decade, Hall will not see enough appearances at 2B to remain eligble in 2007 much less garner meaningful ABs there. Heck, he may not be eligble for 2006. (I think he will but he will need 4 more appearances at the position.)

The Brewers have stuck with JJ Hardy when he should have been in AAA this year. Now that his bat is picking-up some, I see no reason he won't play even more in 2006. (He hit .182 in the first three months - 29/159 - and has hit .264 in July and August - 45/134.) There goes the majority of Hall's 2005 ABs.

His best chance for meaningful ABs, barring injury, will be at 3B. But, with Russ Brnayan's left-handed-power and OBP along with Hall's righty bat, BH finds himslef on the worng sde of a platoon.

In the Spring, there were rumblings of Hall seeing time in CF. That is out as Brady Clark has turned into a legitimate everyday OF, and with Corey Hart likely to remain as a 4th OF and Nelson Cruz having a great AA/AAA year (.390 OBP, 26 HR 18 SB), I doubt there will be any regular ABs as a 4th OF either.

Also during the Spring, I said Hall would be a great Roto player this year, and I was right on that. And I think will will remain a great Rot player next year - as the 13th, 14th or 15ht player on a roster. Just as I said. What changed is the haul you can land for him this off-season.

Eric Bedard

He will be a player I expect to go for too much next draft.

I expect the off-season commentary to be glowing, and this will produce positive momentum going into next year's drafts. $20 or so will not surprise me.

My expectations are a $9-$13 player similar to Jarrod Washburn.

Monday, August 29, 2005

Sammy Sosa

Slain by an unhealing nick of the toe!

He is the new Juan Gonzalez, but won't ratchet down the ladder in draft day salary like the multi-divorcee did.

Sammy went for $36. (Yes, there was high inflation.) I suspect he goes for no more than $15. More likely $10.

(Juan Gonzalez went for $5.)

Steve Finley

If he is truly suffering from a season-long shoulder injury and not recovery-enhancement pharmeceutical withdrawal, then he is a prime target for next year's draft.

He fetched $30 this past draft. I'd expect him to fall to $18 or $19 if his name is called at the same point (about halfway when there are much fewer decent hitters.)

If he came out early, I could see a $13-$15 tag.

Either way, if your roster is set-up with surethings, then he could be a part of a 2006 winning team.

Sunday, August 28, 2005

Mike Sweeney

I fell out of my bed last night around 2:00.

Now I know why.

"Sweeney, the Kansas City Royals first baseman, reportedly has cleared waivers and still could be dealt this season, but not at the price the Angels were asked to pay before the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline. According to the source, the Angels would have had to deal pitcher Ervin Santana, first baseman Casey Kotchman and a middle infield prospect, an area in which the Angels are well-stocked with Alberto Callaspo, Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick and Brandon Wood"

I'd think Santana or Kothcman or Kendrick or Wood or Aybar would be a great deal for the Royals.

There have been no indicators that Stoneman would act so stupidly. Who do the Royals think runs the Angels? Allan Baird?

Friday, August 26, 2005

The Cain Train

While Brett Tomko hasn't pitched poorly, the Giants have decided that Matt Cain's time has come.

If this were a site that dealt in Ks, then I would urge anyone to grab him.

As it isn't, any teams out of the running should get him as quickly as possible. And any teams without concern for their WHIP should, too.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2004 Scott Kazmir-like debut - a gem against the top team and a stinker against the Rockies.

Inside Info?

No sooner do I criticize the Dodgers than Baseball America runs what is likely a cover story for the magazine titled, "Rising Suns: Dodgers Double A Affiliate is the Most Talented Team in the Minor Leagues." (Subscription likely required)

Thursday, August 25, 2005

Mike MacDougal

He is the closer for the Kansas City Royals. My first instinct is to ask whether a team with no wins can have someone to close those wins, but I digress.

What is he worth right now? His current stats are not bad (3.79 ERA and 1.40 WHIP) and are slightly better than those he posted in his previous season as the closer (2003 4.08 ERA and 1.50 WHIP)

An interesting statistical note is his strikeouts are up from that season while his walks are way down from 32 in 64 IP to 23 in 57 IP. This indicates he's learned something about pitching.

With this in mind, I'd say his 2003 value is wrapped up in how Saves would affect your team. If the category is tight, any additional saves can mean a point per save. An additional considerations are the actual number of saves he could garner for the Royals.

With 38 games remaining, the Royals would win 13 if they could match their current winning percentage. 20 of the 41 Royals wins resulted in a save. Applying that 50% save rate to the projected 13 Ws, their will be 6 or 7 more saves in 2003.

I don't think those Saves are worth much in 2003. Obviously, if a point ot two or three separates you from the league title and/or you or your competitior are close in Saves, then it is worth more.

If you are not in that type of race, then MacD's 2003 value is very low.

However, I think MacD will close in 2004. If his improved walks and strikeouts stay and he continues to give-up fewer HRs than Burgos, then I think he gets the veteran's benefit-of-the-doubt and stays in the role.

This will not be the popular off-season view so begin whetting your knife in order to scalp the current MacD owner this winter. (Did the NCAA ban the use of Native American actions too?)

Wednesday, August 24, 2005

Los Angeles Dodgers

When, oh, when, will Depodesta just call-up a whole slew of prospects a la the Atlanta Braves?

The current line-up must rank as the worst in baseball. When Milton Bradley is the 2nd best hitter that says it all. He has never driven in more than 67 runs nor has he ever hit 20 HRs.

Ricky Ledee? Jayson Werth? Oscar Robles? Jason Phillips?
Cesar Izturis? Jose Valentin?

Now calling-up AA and AAA players is one step ahead. The first step should be forcing manager Jim Tracy to play Hee Seop Choi at 1B. If he refuses, fire him. Jason Phillips should never play ahead of Choi. Never.

The team cannot be worse with Joel Guzman, Delmon Young and Willy Aybar garnering the ABs at SS and 3B. Nor with Todd Donovan roaming in the OF. Or with Russ Martin getting on-base as at C.

And worst, this shake-up would generate excitement for the remainder of the season and for next year.

At best, the Dodgers find their Jeff Francouer or Robinson Cano - a deemed not-ready MLB who certainly is ready. Maybe more than one.

Tuesday, August 23, 2005

Zach Duke

Sorry about the late post but I was over here.

Rotoworld comments that Zach Duke will face one of the toughest lineups he will see this season in the ST Louis Cardinals.

I understand Pujols is one of the best hitters in baseball and Jim Edmonds is no slouch, but other than those two hitters, where is the fear coming from?

David Eckstein? Abraham Nunez? John Mabry? Yadier Molina? Hector Luna? Larry Walker?

I don't think so. The Cards are a house of Cards and are my early prediction of 1st round play-off losers.

This team is no different than the Oakland A's clubs of Hudson, Zito and Mulder who couldn't hit enough to win. And they had a much better offense with Giambi, Chavez, Tejada, Damon, Dye and Ramon Hernandez.

FWIW: Duke has faced MLW, PHI, CHC, COL, FLA ATL, LA, HOU, and NYM. Of these nine teams, only COL and LA have worse line-ups than the Cardinals. The Mets are even.

Monday, August 22, 2005


That was quick.

Granted, Alou didn't annoint Benitez the official closer, but there are $14 mm or so reasons to think the official annointment is unnecessary


As I understand the August waiver process, any player on the 40-man roster must be passed through waivers in order to be traded.

If this is so, what do the Twins have that the Rangers want?

Mays and Lohse? More likely, Scott Baker, a player I'd fall down dead if he cleared waivers.

Denard Span is a AA CF who could help Texas.

Without knowing who cleared waivers on the Twins 25-man roster, I cannot intellignetly guess. However, that won't stop me.

Lew Ford seems superfluous for the Twins. Not to mention his production is down from 2004. But would Texas want another Dave Dellucci- or Gary Matthews-type?

Or more snarkily put, will the 2007 Rangers manager want a roster full of Buck Showalter scrappy types.

Seems Texas has no intentions of dealing Soriano. There just doesn't seem to be fair value available.

If they do, then they made a Chan Ho Park-esque mistake by not dealing him pre-August 1st.

Thursday, August 18, 2005

Duaner Sanchez

Another save tonight. He is the LA closer right now, and with only 40 games left in the season, there is no time to waste in making haste to get him.

I have not completely written-off Jim Tracy doing something inexplicable with Brazoban, but I don't think there is enough time in the season to risk waiting for that to occur.

As for Steve Schmoll? Not a sniff of the 8th inning much the 9th. ( last three appearances - 2.2 IP, 8 ER, 11 runners.) However, that does not mean he won't be a $1 end-of-the-draft pitcher next year. Being named a co-closer, no matter for how short a time, does that in Roto.

Armando Benitez

I have the impression that the Roto experts are not counting on Armando to close soon in SF. Most recently expressed here.

I completely disagree. As a one-inning pitcher, he could be back in form in the six weeks prior to Opening Day 2006 aka Spring Training. Assuming Brian Sabian deserves the accolades showered upon him, then one must conclude Benitez is ready to close now or very well close enough to now.

Otherwise, the rewriting of history to remove any references to Sabian's intellect and wisdom would make the most devoted fan of collectivization proud..

So if you rely on Tyler Walker, grab Benitez. If you need saves, grab Benitez as my analysis will soon become the accepted wisdom, and his value will go immediately to $20+ closer.

League Sites

One of my NL leagues uses All-Star Stats and has done so for many years.

I have moved, or provided support for, the other two leagues I compete in to TQ Stats service.

Mostly, it was a financial decision as TQS was $100 or so and ASS was over $500.

Every so often during the season and off-season, a team or two agitate to go back to ASS because it is easier on the eyes.

The underlying assumption was both sites provided the same statistical information and updates.

However, that no longer seems to be true. ASS has been updating their standings late every morning whereas TQS is updated by the time I awake for work (6 AM or so).

I was only aware that ASS wasn't updated by the time I left for work (6:45 AM). By the time I called my brother in Seattle near lunch time (12 PM), the standings would be updated.

What has occurred is my brother moved to RI in July and can check ASS all frickin' morning waiting for the latest standings - and they are not up!

He guesses ASS needs more capacity. I wonder whether their extravagent fees relative to the rest of the market have finally caught-up to them and have caused a drop in revenue.

Eddie Guardado

Chicago's Daily Southtown reports Guardado has cleared waivers according to a source in the M's organization.

I find this very, very hard to believe. Tha Yankees and Red Sox didn't claim him? Puh-leaze.

And I say that as an owner who protected a $10 JJ Putz this year and have been holding on to him for just this the type of news the DS reports.

Wednesday, August 17, 2005

John Rodriguez

John Rodriguez : - John Rodriguez Biography from

As he is likely on his way to the waiver wire as I close-in on a trading deadline tonight, I thought I let everyone know it is time to bail on him.

12-50 with two doubles in August, 2 bases-on-balls and 17 strikeoutsleads me to think there was a reason he was still in AAA at 27-years-old.

With Larry Walker ready to return, JRod's ABs will decrease. Taguchi scorching post-ASB will not help.

Rosters expand in two weeks so there will be even more options for LaRussa to demonstrate his micro-managing genius. That also coincides with what will be Larry Walker's last regular season cortisone shot.

Tuesday, August 16, 2005


First, I draw attention to his lack of walks.

Then, Matt Watson picks-up on it. (Scroll to bottom.)

And now, Rob Neyer.

I think we may have reached a tipping point so if you haven't hoisted him upon another owner, your time may have run out and now you must suffer the carnage! - Sox tab Anderson over Griffey?for now

Unfortunately, Anderson only stole three bases this season despite swiping 13 in 2004.

However, Ozzie likes to run so I would not be surprised to see Anderson swipe a handful over the rest of the season.

And if you already had Nick Punto, those 5 additional bags can prevent you from overpaying for a SB guy. (40 games left. 8 SB = 32 for full year.)

Monday, August 15, 2005

Matt LeCroy

Sadly, the 4-year run of catcher-eligibility is over.

I always found him to be a much better value at catcher than some of the everyday bums like Dan Wilson who inevitabley were drafted because they were starting backstops.

I do think LeCroy could have a nice $1 career as a back-up DH/1B. His walk rate has improved considerably and he has power. Smells like an Oakland A to me.

Discontent continues among five outfielders

Brandon Watson?!?!?!?

Come on. If there is a problem in the Nats OF due to too many OFers, a AAA call-up is not part of it.

This situation is Jim Bowden's tar baby as he could not resist trading for the greatly-diminshed Preston Wilson, and then to combine it with a manager of Frank Robinson's proclivity ("You're going to get a guy (Wilson), and then in less than a month you're going to give up on him?"

The short and simple answer is "Yes" if he is hurting the team, and a .216 AVG does just that for a squad with offense issues.
Podsednik's leg injury stokes Griffey rumors

Griffey to the White Sox makes sense despite the ABs issue right now, but that clears-up on October 3 as Everett is a free agent and Big Hurt is likely out.

From a prospect standpoint, the Chisox have Brian Anderson at AAA and he is ready for a cup of big leagues joe.

Chris Young looks very exciting, and if the Mike Cameron comparisons are correct, then the Reds get back the same player they dealt to Seattle for Griffey.

Cincinnatti would be foolish to not deal Griffey for a package of prospects led by Chris Young. Takers for griffey are few and far between.

Thursday, August 11, 2005

Matt Cain

Baseball America - Stats

He won't be 21 until October 1st.

He has struck out 152 PCL hitters in 128 innings.

He has given-up 105 hits in those 128 innings.

He would move from a hitter's league to a pitcher's park in SF.

Get him if you can. With Felix Hernandez garnering all the phenom hype, he may be easier to land especially if you ignore the four points I provide and only focus on his 4.64 ERA and 68 BBS.


LA Daily News - Sports

Boom! He explodes again. Turns out I was right to be concerned

If the Dodgers had a clear-cut option, Brazoban would be out of the role. Maybe what the Dodgers need to do is sneak a Hee Seop Choi mask on Brazoban so Tracy will stop playing him?
Ryan Howard

He is a no-doubt $20 player for the remainder of 2005.

More importantly, Jim Thome injury updates will be everywhere for until he returns. The speculation and prognostication will inevitably have a value-dampening effect on Howard's perceived value.

Make him a top off-season priority. And in a best-case value-dampening proposition, Thome will be (nearly) ready to play by Opening Day. This should bring Howard to the nadir of his value through the end of the decade.

Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Rich Hill

Smoked again when he should be throwing smoke.

If you play in a 5X5, then someone was screwed by the false promises of strikeouts.

Rich Hill

Smoked again when he should be throwing smoke.

If you play in a 5X5, then someone was screwed by the false promises of strikeouts.

Deadline deals

As we approach the Rotisserie trade deadline, teams should be seriously be considering trading any of their players whose contracts run out at season's end.

Why? Simply because those players have no value the day after the season ends. This is the same reason bailing teams should only deal these types of players.

Unfortunately, too many teams misconflate dealing out-of-time players with bailing and keep these players until the ned of the season. Will the team that currently refuses to deal a $50 out-of-time (although that needn't have been written as a $50 Beltran is not a protectable player any longer) Beltran for a $1 with an additional year remaining Chris Capuano suffer immediate buyers remorse on October 1? Guaranteed.

Will Beltran finally earn the salary paid for him based on last season's stats? Not guaranteed, and given the amount of booing and subsequent reporting of that booing in the NY press, not likely.

Equally as important, could Beltran's hoped-for contribution move the standings? This is where the serious calculating must take place. If your team can afford to trade him because HR, RBI, and SB offer little more than +/- 2 points, then you should move him. If those categories are tightly bunched, maybe not.

As for dealing an easily protectable $1 Chris Capuano, so what? He could have one stinker over his final 10 starts and have worse numbers for the aquiring team than those one your team. Or you could find a way to grab the ubiquitous reliever from the free agent pool via FAAB.

From the acquring team's POV, his season-long numbers will still be attractive for $1 which will make him a bargaining chip over the long off-season. And having those are what slakes the thirst of the serious Roto player in anticipation of Spring Training 2006

Jaimie Moyer

New York Post Online Edition: sports

So he nixed a trade to the Yankees. After previously exercising his contractual rights in veteoing a trade to Houston, another play-off contender, prior to the July 31 deadline, he clearly has no intentions of playing for a winner.

Where are all the baseball purists deriding him his "selfishness"?

Tuesday, August 09, 2005

Anyone else notice that Mike Piazza's season is arguably as good as Joe Mauer's season?

Carl Pavano

Imagine he has a shoulder tear and comes back in 2007 throwing softer. $22 million richer to boot!

Pena isn't happy waiting for chance to start for Reds

Pena isn't happy waiting for chance to start for Reds

Poor Wily. He is caught in the Reds strategic move towards becoming the Tampa Bay Devil Rays of the NL.

This is a quite amusing article as its first part deals with Wily's lack of PT. The second part is Jerry Narron lamenting he can't find time for Ray Olmedo!

Hal McCoy has quite a sense of humor.

Monday, August 08, 2005

Jeff Francoeur

Yahoo! Sports - MLB - Jeff Francoeur

Still no bases-on-balls. Hopefully, you brought him up from your farm and you are in the running for first because he should be dealt in a bail trade right now.

He's doing better in the majors than he was doing in AA. He only hit 13 HR in 335 ABs in AA with 13 BBs.

Trade him now if you are in the running. His fast start is going to end and will be replaced with a finish that will hurt your AVG.

Jonny Gomes

He set the TB rookie HR record yesterday with his 13th.

For a perrenial last place franchise to have never had a rookie hit more than 13 HR in a season is pathetic.

How does anyone keep their job down there?

And just think Piniella wasn't even playing him at the beginning of May, and he was sent to the minors to boot!

Sunday, August 07, 2005

I'm back from a week in Vermont and will get to posting by tomorrow morning.