Saturday, December 31, 2005

2006 NL Trend

Last season saw the emergence of the new crop of pitching studs. This season, the new crop of catching studs will become apparent.

In Atlanta, Brian McCann takes over full-time after making the jump from AA to the majors - at 21-years-old. In another situation that makes the NL East feel the Braves have the blessings of a higher power, one of the top Braves prospects is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a catcher with power and plate discipline

Forida's firesale has provided Josh Willingham the opportunity to play significant innings behind the plate (definition: making enough appearances to qualify at catcher for the 2007 season.) The team also signed Miguel Olivo who should finally get the chance to show that speed he displayed, and the reason Roto owners have been waiting added him to their team, since his AA season in 2002 when he stole 29. Remember, despite this unfulfilled expectation, he has stolen 6, 7, and 7 bases the past three seasons. Matching that would make him more valuable than a $1 end-of-draft filler.

Speaking of that, the Mets' Ramon Castro should be an excellent 2nd catcher. His exposure will remain similar to last season where he out-performed the Mets latest catching edition, Paul LoDuca:

Castro: 29 years-old 209 ABs 8 HR 41 RBI .244 AVG .321 OBP .435 SLG
LoDuca: 34 years-old 445 ABS 6 HR 57 RBI .283 AVG .334 OBP .380 SLG

St. Louis saw 23-year-old Yadier Molina adequately replaced the offensive production of the pre-SF Matt Matheny.

Pitsburgh has Humberto Cota who matched the aforementioned @005 goodie, Damian Miller, in his first extended playing time. Ryan Doumit was also impressive in his first call-up last season.

The Dodgers Dioner Navarro did well last season as a 22-year-old in his (this should be familiar) first extended playing time as a major leaguer. And right behind him is the player Billy Beane had hoped Jeremy Brown would have been, Russ Martin (.311 AVG, .430 OBP in 409 official ABs).

Colorado dealt a Rule 5 pick for Yorvit Torrealba. He seems to have been bouncing around forever, but he is only 27 years old. Colorado should make him a decent #1 catcher come draft day. Because of this, he is likely to be the most over-valued, too. Think JD Closser, who may improve with more carefully managed ABs.

What this means is there is reason to enter next year's draft needing to draft a catcher or two because there should be equivalent production in the pool as that being protected (Jason LaRue, Paul Loduca, Mike Lieberthal, Damian Miller, Michael Barrett, Brian Schneider). It also means one of these young receivers will be cheap and result in good bail bait later in the season.

Javier Valentin did not make this list because he is already 30-years-old, but I like him as a very good 2nd catcher, and if he repeats his 2005 numbers, a #1. However, he is stuck behind Jason LaRue and cannot be reasonably be expected to get many more ABs than he did last year - severally limiting his upside potential.

Friday, December 30, 2005

NL Catchers

Damian Miller was one of the best catchers in the NL last season.

Declarative sentences like that should make teams shutter because it is true.

His .273 AVG was 4th after such luminaries as Ramon Hernandez, Michael Barrett and Paul LoDoca.

His 9 HR put him in the middle of the pack, which ranged from a high of Mike Piazza's 19 to zero.

Given Piazza's 62 RBI was tops at the postion, Miller's 43 runs drive in is very good. (Yes, Piazza was still a very top receiver in the NL last season.)

With this relative performance in mind, be prepared for Miller's owner to try to sell him based on his relative merits. He would likely be one of the top catchers available at NL drafts, but why pay for him based on that?

After all, Humberto Cota hit 7 HR and drove in 43 in fewer ABs, and he is 10 years younger. Not to mention last season was his first extended MLB action. It would be reasonable to expect slight improvement, and that is all it would take to surpass Miller.

I would also expect Brian McCann and Dioner Navarro,along with Josh Willingham, o surpass Miller's production. Not to mention the Met's Ramon Castro was equally effective in limited ABs.

So don't overpay for Miller based on his relatively postive performance in 2005. I expect him to go for no more than a few dollars at draft time.

Of course, I don't expect any catchers to go for more than $15 regardless.

Thursday, December 29, 2005

Preston Wilson

P-Dubya is a player I have always considered over-rated. He had a stunning 2000 when he went 36/31 with 121 RBI, but his .264 AVG bothered me.

He remained at the 20/20 level for the next couple seasons and was then shipped out to Colorado where he had a truly great Roto season thanks to a Coors-inflated, injury-free.282 AVG. In all these seasons, he was a $30 player.

In 2004, he hurt every Roto team because he was likely protected at his 2003 price and was injured all season (6 HR in 202 ABs).

In 2005, he went for $25. It thought it was still too high. He entered last season and seemed to attract trade rumors from the opening pitch. As a result, I never really considered him.

Once he was dealt to Washington, I completely wrote him off figuring his power would plummet.

And so here I am considering what the Red Sox will do about CF, and P-Dub came to mind. He seems a good fit - a veteran who won't command a long contract. I then checked his numbers and was surpirsed to see his 2005 season was in line with his careeer numbers (minus SB) -25/90/.260.

A steal if the Red Sox can get him and a likely veteran sleeper for Roto.

A veteran sleeper being a player who goes for $15-$24 because he is no longer surrounded by hype but still produces.


Two years, $5 million per?

What is wrong with the Orioles? Why won't anyone take their money? I don't know, and sense even if I did, the Os wouldn't care.

Rototimes has Jeff Conine listed at 1B. He will be in the running for the 2006 Worst Power from 1B with Kevin Youkilis.

Walter Young should be given 200 ABs. If he sinks, then let Conine garner the ABs. Otherwise, put the big man there and let him swing away.

Wednesday, December 28, 2005

Craig Counsell

He is going to move to shortstop with the acquistion of Gold Glove 2B Orlando Hudson.

Unfortunately, he won't be there for long. (Given the fact he played full-time last year, i suspect he will play there longer than he should.)

Stephen Drew is on the way and that will leave Counsell with very limited ABs, and that is too bad. After years and years of an unexplicably long careeer, he finally put up an excellent Roto number - 26 SBs.

Now that looks to be a pipe dream for 2006. Shame on you for not selling him high!

Tuesday, December 27, 2005

Glaus Trade

The Blue Jays acquired slugging 3B/1B/DH from the Diamondbacks for 2005 Gold Glove 2B orlando Hudson and extremely versatile starter/longman/closer, Miguel Batisita.

I should have added "oft-injured" to Glaus appellation but that would have unnecessarily colored my view of the trade.

I think it is a Roto steal. Grabbing 30+ HRs for a non-descript middle infielder and a swingman is tremendous.

In real life, it is head-shaking. Why is JP gathering all the corner/DH types? Does he think he can deal from a postion of strength when all the other teams know he can't play Corey Koskie, Eric Hinkse, Troy Glaus, Shea Hillenbrand and Lyle Overbay in the same line-up?

And why give-up David Bush, Zack Jackson, Gabe Gross, Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batisita to put yourself in that postion?

Thursday, December 22, 2005

Reggie Sanders

Now that Reggie Sanders has signed with the Royals I can no longer argue during trade discussions that Emil Brown is still the clean-up hitter for the Royals and can be expected to match his 2005 performance; thus, amking him worth a mid-teens price.

Now he will only bat clean-up when Sanders is hurt. Which means half the time.

Brown will remain a quality Roto OF.

Those AL players who hit more than 15 HRs, drove in more than 75 runs, stole 8+ basesa dn hit greater than .280 are Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Vladimir Guerrero and Grady Sizemore. Granted Brown's numbers would have ranked him 5th in all the categories except RBIs where he ranked 4th ahead of Sizemore, this is still quite elite company to be in.

Even if the criteria is loosed to 12 HR, 70 RBI and a .275 AVG, only Tadahito Iguchi, Brian Roberts, Raul Ibanez and Carl Crawford join the club.

Brown is clearly one of the least respected/most underrated players in the AL.

Wednesday, December 21, 2005

New York Yankees

The Yanks got Johnny Damon on their terms (four years) and not on the strategically deceptive Scott Boras' terms.

This is a good signing although it seems as if the Yanks are willing to pay for a year or tow when he will not earn his salary. The one caveat is he will only be 34 and 35 during those years and the dramatic drop-off seen with Bernie Williams may prove to be atypical. (Hey, any chance Bernie is actually a couple years older than his listed age?)

Whatever Damon went for last season will likely be what he goes for this year. Plus Torre is not adverse to stealing bases so Damon will rebound into the 20s for SB. (Unless his shoulder is really damaged. If so, then this signing will start to suck in the second half of Year 1!)

As worthy of attention is the one-year deal Octavio Dotel signed with the Yanks. He is a prime closing sleeper for 2007! I would go several dollars on him for just that chance.

Tuesday, December 20, 2005

Texas/San Diego Trade

The Rangers sent SP Chris Young, 1B Adrian Gonzalez and OF Termel Sledge to San Diego for SP Adam Eaton, RP Akori Otsuka and a low-level minor league catcher.

I cannot see why Texas would make this deal. Eaton is a free agent after next season. Young just completed his first full season and proved capable of successfully pitching in a hitter's park. Eaton pitched in a pitcher friendly park without the DH. Advantage: San Diego.

Otsuka has been a good middle reliever but he is still going from pitcher friendly confines to pitcher adverse ones. However, as a middle reliever he can be selectively exposed to favorable situations.

Adrian Gonzalez will be starting in San Diego by mid-season and has not completed a full-season in the majors yet. Sledge will be a decent 4th OF who just finished his rookie year, too.

The low-level catcher has yet to complete a full season of Low A ball.

Mixed leagues wouldn't make this trade. Why would texas? Was Daniels weaned on Yahoo! shallow mixed-leagues and as a result doesn't know that he can't just dip into the free agent pool to pick-up a 1B or OF?

More specific for Roto, this trade sends signals that Dave Roberts and Ryan Klesko are going to be platoon players in SD or trade bait.

Monday, December 19, 2005

Jorge Sosa

After starting Game Three of the NLDS for the Braves, I have pencilled Jorge Sosa in as the #4 starter for the Atlanta Braves in 2006.

As such, I sent offers with him as the key piece as if this were the case, and known to other teams. In two cases, I was rebuffed because he was not in the starting rotation.

I was shocked so I immediately began a cursory search for information that would lead these teams to ignore the Game Three starting assignment.

No roto blurbs on Rotoworld or TQS. No off-season Atlanta signings of a starting pitcher or rumors of such. Then I checked the depth charts provided by Rotoworld and saw the reason. The service has Sosa listed in the bullpen and Mike Hapmton as the #3 starter.

Unfortuantely for Mike Hampton owners, he is out for 2006 with Tommy John surgery, but the damage had been done.

This weekend, Rotoworld had a Dominican Winter League update on Sosa. He pitched two innings of relief. Maybe one of these teams was privy to this and I missed it.

But as my Roto mind works, I cast it in a more favorable light. Since the Braves have not signed a closer to replace Kyle Farnsworth, maybe they are grooming Sosa to do it!

And if this is the case, I am glad those teams turned him down because nothing in Roto makes me feel sicker than seeing a former player of mine turn into a closer.

Friday, December 16, 2005

Kansas City

What are they doing?

Why would they sign Elmer Dessens, Scott Elarton, Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Grudzalaniek, Paul Bako?

I can't see any of those players being considered starting players on any other team with the exception of Grudzalaniek, and even he is so pedestrian that I would forgo his blandness for a younger player with upside.

All they did was overpay for their 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th and 25th man on their 25-man rosters.

Stupid management leads to bad teams - not market size.

Wednesday, December 14, 2005

Javier Vasquez

Did I miss something? Has Vasquez pitched like a 10-figure per year pitcher the past two seasons?

He has not, at least if being a 10-figure pitcher means being Top 10 in any positive pitching categories.

In the real world something has not translated to Roto. Assuming all three players were protectable (Vasquez <$13, Vizcaino <$3, El Duque <$3 and Young a drafted farm player), no one would turn down El Duque, Vizcaino and Young for Vasquez.

Personally, I wouldn't have traded Young for Vasquez straight-up. 200 inning starting pitchers with ERAs near 4.50 have no place on my team. Nevermind that his ERA will likely go up pitching to 9-man line-ups and in a hitter-friendly home ballpark.

Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Who's on first?

Nomar Garciaparra????

Jeez, the Big Stein has to make a splash, doesn't he? Even if it means moving baseball's hottest 2nd half hitter in 2005, Jason Giambi, from the situation he occupied while amassing those numbers?


Monday, December 12, 2005


I sent an inquiry to the team that just lost Soriano to the NL figuring he had already committed to protecting him at his salary ($43). My bait was a $36 Ichiro.

He asked what I was interested in and I mentioned weither of the SS.

He looked at my team and responded I had more keepable players than I could protect.

And that was it.

Shouldn't he have known to make an offer with two players from my team? Or three? Doesn't everyone know to do this?

Apparently not.

As a result, our discussions have morphed into me holding his hand and trying to teach him how to negotiate Roto trades. Needless to say this is like a joke where you have to explain the punchline - not fun.

Friday, December 09, 2005

Dan Uggla

He was selected by the Florida Marlins yesterday. As a 2B, he certainly looks as good as any other option the team has. Actually, he looks like the best. Sorry to all you Alfredo Almazaega fans.

In AA Tennessee of the Southern league, he hit .297/.378/.502 with 33 doubles, 21 homers, and 15 steals. With that type of pop, I expect he can be a decent Roto middle infielder with 300+ ABs. My guess is a slightly better version of Aaron Miles.

For comparison, as a 25-year-old in the same league, Miles hit .304/.354/.445.

Hopefully, Ugga won't be too close to Miles' numbers because the guys at Rotoworld will attack him as visciously as they do Miles!

Esteban German

Yesterday, the Royals acquired Esteban German for the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft.

He is a major sleeper. He has spent 4 full years atAAA and consistently posted high OBPs (.390. .379, .380, and .400 the last four seasons) and he stole 43 bases last season (26, 32, 18 in half a year the prior three seasons.) while also improving his caught stealing percentages. With little to no competition for 2B, he should get full-time ABs next year, and if he is decent, rack up very good SB numbers (>20) for a handful or so of draft dollars.

As I expect him to land on most sleeper lists, I won't say he will be had for a $1 at the end of the draft. However, my past experience of middle infielder prices has shown the vast majority to go for $15 +/- $5. I expect him to still go for less than the lower end of that range. I would also consider protecting him at $10 if he was plucked from the pool at some point last season and is still on a team's reserve list.

The most glaring question is why, in this Moneyball era, did he spend four full seasons in AAA while doing everything the sabremetricians tout?

Tuesday, December 06, 2005

Sean Casey

So Pitsburgh needs a 31-year-old 1B with minimal power to make them.....what? Stupid?

Casey's reputation as a great teammate is going to have to go a loooooooooooooooooooooooooong way if this is to be considered a good trade.

Dave Williams may not be Randy Johnson, but he is 26 and left-handed. One would think the Pirates could have gotten a little more than a soon-to-be free agent 1B with low double digit power making $8.5 million this year.

God, what an awful deal for the Pirates!

Monday, December 05, 2005

Stripping the farm

Didn't Minaya leave the Expos/Nationals farm system barren?

He is certainly doing it to the Mets. He traded Gabby Hernandez, considered their best pitching propsect after the Petit deal, and a PTBNL for a 34-year-old catcher with poor catch-stealers skills who is owed $6 mm for each of the next two seasons.

I guess his non-Roto contributions are much greater than are apparent in his numbers because I don't see how he is $11+ mm better than Ramon Castro.

Castro: 28 years-old 209 ABs 8 HR 41 RBI .244 AVG .321 OBP .435 SLG
LoDuca: 34 years-old 445 ABS 6 HR 57 RBI .283 AVG .334 OBP .380 SLG

Before Minaya is allowed to trade prospects he should be asked, "How are Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore doing?"

Saturday, December 03, 2005


Castillo had a very nice OBP, but if the new 2b can add some pop, I think the Marlins will not be noticably worse.

Seems a great risk for the team - add one power arm for the 2006 bullpen with another in AA for a 2B whose main value is concentrated on the current obsession with OBP.

Speaking of such, the Phils asked for Wang from the Yanks for Jason Michale, another player who has one skill - OBP. He has no pop whatsoever while playing in a hitter-friendly park.

Friday, December 02, 2005

Luis Castillo

At least, the Twins have an infielder who can hit .300. As for power and speed....

Travis Bowyer looks like a "sleeper" to close. I put that in quotes because everyone will know it and thus he won't be a true sleeper.

he would make Proctor that much more of a sleeper, though, if he gets all the off-season hype.

Juan Pierre to the Yanks?

This makes perfect sense. The Yanks need a CF. Florida is having a fire sale with a CF on display. And the Fish want a couple of mediocre pitchers - Scott Proctor and Sean Henn.

If this occurred, I like Proctor as a sleeper in Florida. if the Fish have no defined closer come Opening Day, I would love him!

As for Henn, I was unimpressed last season, but would not be surprised to see him be moderately successful a la Brad Halsey in the NL.

As for Pierre, get your checkbook ready because he will go for $30+. See Scott Podsednick for a rough estimation of draft value.

Thursday, December 01, 2005


Anyone notice that Steve Karsay's $22 million contract is now the norm for an 8th inning pitcher?

I am glad Kyle Farnsworth signed to set-up because I would not have wanted to risk closer money on him at the draft. I know he did well in the role last season, but what about that blow-up with a 5-0 lead in the play-offs?

Like I said, I am happy to not have to take that risk.

He could be a decent middle reliver though. Pitching for the Yankees, he should be in line for some Ws. And if he fails, you will know very quickly because Torre will stop using him regularly, and you can cut bait. There is little chance the Yanks would give-up on him during the first year (Although, I am sure, the Tampa Cronies would revel in Cashman's mistake.) Before there was Javier Vasquez, there was Sterling Hitchcock would pitched mop-up for $6.3 MM.

This would allay some of the fear that he would end-up closing somewhere else.

Given the market, the Yanks are better off over paying two set-up men for the price of one closer. And they haven't brought in a weak-armed, sore shouldered CF for another 7 years and $80+ million,

Wednesday, November 30, 2005

Alphonso Soriano is one of the most valuable AL Roto players. 30/30 is not available anywhere else.

However, realizing that value is hard. He has been in trade rumors all off-season, and even if he isn't dealt this winter, he will be in trade rumors the moment the Rangers go two games under .500.

Who is going to pay the price necessary to land him with that dark cloud over him?
A couple of huge closer signings, and their effect on Roto is much less than the media coverage surrounding them.

Why? Because neither closer changed leagues.

However, the owners of Migule Batisita would certainly disagree. Losing a closer always hurts, but unless he was in next season's draft, little damage was done to the other teams in the league. And given he joined the Jays in the 2004 off-season, I am sure he was not.

The Orioles closing situation is officially in the air now, but even there, most did not expect the O's to resign Ryan. ("most" = me and my brother, who listens to MLB on XM Radio and heard this during the season.)

Who is going to close in Baltimore? My guess is one of the unglamourous old guys - Todd Jones or Bob Wickman. What do I base that on? Nothing.

Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Mike Jacobs

After a week of finding no one who agrees with my assessment of the Delgado trade, Rob neyer finally opines somethign that would put us in the same park.

To quote:

"Because Mike Jacobs is going to be a fine MLB first baseman -- in 2007 he'll be as good as Delgado...."

Monday, November 28, 2005

Resetting contracts

With fully-valued players eligible to be signed to a long-term contract does it make sense to throw them back into the pool to reset the contract?

A clever answer would be "yes." As the player is already fully-valued, you can assume he won't go for much more than a $1 or $2. True, he'd be more expensive, but the ability to control that player for an additional two years would make up for that.

The risk of doing this is plenty. The main risk is you will not get the player back. After all, a fully-valued player has already been recognized twice as such (once at a draft and the following year as a keeper), and therefore, 11 other teams can be expected to know about him. If you do not get the player, then acquiring him via trade will be costly. $30+ players are not sold cheaply!

In a keeper league, this will be especially true as the pool of top-flight players will be limited and cause the player in question to be easily recognized.

The second risk is something goes wrong with your plan and the player goes for $5 or so more. All of a sudden a $34 Eric Chavez is $39. True, his contract is reset, but in no way is he worth $39. Now he is going right back into the pool the following season - a de facto last-year contract.

There is also an opportunity risk in leaving a slot open to get this player back. By doing so, you may lose out on the opportunity to draft a player going for less than you thought or one that you project will have a breakout year. (My guess is this occurs most frequently with the DH spot, but could occur anywhere on the roster.)

After this brief examination, I would say to keep the fully-valued player and let him ride out his contract. You can then "reset" it the following year.

Wednesday, November 23, 2005 Mets get Delgado

If this is correct, then Florida made out like a bandit. Petit should be decent and Jacobs will come much closer to Delgado's HR production than anyone will project. He hit 43 HR last season.

This was a dumb move by the Mets. 30+ year-old, 10-figure 1B are not wise decisions. Just ask Philadelphia. Or how about the Yankees?

Tuesday, November 22, 2005

Hanley Ramirez

With the latest Boston robbery of a top starting pitcher (the first being Schilling two off-seasons ago), a little more due diligence should have been paid to Hanley Ramirez.

He has never hit more than 8 HR in any minor league season, and that one time was in 2003! He hit 6 in the next two years. Not exactly an upward trend.

With a minor leaguer, occasionally doubles are predictive of furture power. In 2003, he hit 24. The next two seasons' totals were 15 and 21.

How about AVG? He hit .352 in 2002 and slugged about .540. A hyped prospect was born! In 2003, he only hit .275 and slugged .403. While he did have career highs in 2B and HR, they were not reflected positively in his SLG because he received 160 more ABs.

In 2004, he got his AVG to .310 against better competition and raised his SLG to .432, but still a long way from his 2002 numbers. But he followed that with a worse 2005, hitting .271 and slugging .385.

His SB success rate has also trended similiarly 57% to 73% to 71% to 67%. Basically, flat to negative.

(Yes, I know I did not have great things to say about Beckett but "top starting pitching" is relative and defined within the context of 4x4 Rotisserie where Scot Shields is more valuable than the vast majority of starting pitchers

Monday, November 21, 2005

Beckett Trade

Amazing. The Red Sox trade a prospect whose star has failed to rise despite persisent cajoling from the baseball press along with a couple other minor league prospects of little repute for a powerpitcher moving into his prime.

Those facts aside, I am not impressed with Beckett. He moves from a great NL pitcher's park with a great defense behind him to an AL hitter's park with a lesser defense.

Those facts are of considerable value in assessing Beckett's 2006 Roto prospects. I expect him to go for $25+ on hype. I would not be surprised to see a Matt Clement redux.

Hanley Ramirez may get some good hype but I expect disappointment. His power does not look promising in Pro Player, and his success rate of 66% last season in AA does not cause me to think he will improve once he is amongst the big boys.

He is young, though, and may play up to the competition.

Saturday, November 19, 2005


Dotel is clearly one of the top sleepers going into 2006. He will close if someone falters and should go for little more than $1 at a draft due to his elbow injury.

I wouldn't hesitate to pay $5 or so for him.

After my previous post, I should have followed up with something related to data organization but did not.

If you want more info on this topic, then post a comment and I will try to address this more in the future. (After all, any ol' site can comment on players, but how many are offering tips on organizing data?)

Friday, November 18, 2005

One of my leagues uses TQStats (TQS) and the other uses All-Star Stats (ASS). About 50% of each league plays in the other so there are several owners who can compare each site and comment on each endlessly.

One owner, I will call him The Pot Stirrer, voiced a concern over the user-friendliness of TQS player lists because there was no function to find a player and see what Roto team he was on.

After some bickering about it being too hard to copy text reports into other applications and easily formatting them, he agreed to pay me a nominal sum to produce something more easily manipulated with the assumption that it couldn't be done.

I did do it, and rather easily (the autofilter on Excel is a geat tool.)

So I posted he owed me the nominal fee. Another owner complained that I was making money off fellow owners because of a crappy site. (He is a pro-ASS owner. I am an anti-ASS owner due to the 500% difference in price.)

Here I thought I made money off other owners misfortunate drafting and trading.

Given the much better report I produced, I went to ASS to try to do the same. No such luck. I have been unable to find a ASS report that provided position eligibility for 2006. (TQS showed games played at each position.)

If I can find a way to pull the eligibility from a separte Excel report into the ASS report, then it would prove a wash, but until then, 50 points to Gryffin......TQS.

Wednesday, November 09, 2005

Brian Lawrence

The former Padre and current National, Brian Lawrence ($6), was just offered to me in a package with Damian Miller($5) for Juan Encarnacion($10).

It is a fair offer but not one that I like for several reasons.

Damian Miller is now a productive NL catcher (4th in AVG amongst those with 300 AB), and I would have him on my team at the right price ($5 and under), but he is 36 year-old. Any drop from his 9 HR/40 RBI level makes him easily replacable/worthless.

Brian Lawrence has one thing going for him - he is pitching in an extreme pitcher's park. At first blush, one would think his ERA and WHIP could improve from thier 2005 levels, 4.83 and 1.37 respectively. However, a little thought makes me believe their may not be enough improvement to make him valuable. Namely, he already pitched in a pitcher's park, Petco!

Really, how far will his ERA drop? 4.75? 4.69? It would have to go below 4.00 for him to be worth keeping at $6.

So, with Lawrence unprotectable at $6, this trade is the certainty of a 36-year-old catcher versus the upside of a $10 Encarnacion (16/73/6/.287 in 2005 in a pitcher's park.)

Monday, November 07, 2005


I am so itching to make a deal in either league but cannot find anything worth pursuing.

In the NL, I have Dontrelle at $10, Brett Myers at $10, Matt Cain at $5 and Jorge Sosa at $1. Do I need to acquire SP? No. Do I need to get a cheaper staff? No.

I could use a closer but must wait to see how things shake out in the free agent market. I do have Urbina at $18 and suspect he will close somewhere.

I also have Duaner Sanchez, who finished last season as the Dodgers closer. Nothing will be known in LA until Gagne reports for Spring Training.

For hitting, I have a slew of players whose value will largely be determined this off-season - Juan Encarnacion, Austin Kearns, Kenny Loften, Joe Randa, Ryan Shealy, Ryan Klesko, Jerry Hairston. Even free agent Wes Helms becomes valuable at $5 if he signs with a team that commits to getting him 300+ ABs.

Until that is settled, I am wise to hold off making trades for the sake of making trades.

But how I'd like to do so!

Sunday, November 06, 2005

Billy Wagner

Looks as if the Mets are going to get Billy Wagner $10MM per and a no-trade.

I wonder how everything shakes out if the Mets land Wagner espeically if NY Post's Joel Sherman is correct and the Yankees land BJ Ryan.

Baltimore and Philadelphia will have new closers for sure, but who those will be is too far up in the air to guess.

The list of teams looking for one would be Baltimore, Cleveland, Detroit, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Florida, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and San Diego.

There will be a lot of Roto teams that fall into a 2006 closer, and I hope to be one of those teams.

Saturday, November 05, 2005

Bruce Chen

I was entertaining an offer of Freddie Garica $16 for Mike Sweeney $16. The counteroffer was Sweeney/something for Garcia because Sweeney is frequently injured.

Before pursing this any further, I wanted to check stats of the players involved. As often happens, players full-season stats are not immediatley displayed due to trades, and I am unaware of how good or bad the player did over the entire season.

1st, Sweeny hit .300/21/83 in 470 ABs - very good numbers. If he were to stay healthy (150+ games), then he'd be a part of the wiinning Roto team. (Recently, he said he'd be OK DHing more.)

Next I checked Garcia. I thought he had done better than I thought he would prior to the start of the year due to the SEA/CHI splits from 2004.

He did do better - 14 W, 3.87 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in 228 IP. These were good, but not sure I liked that ERA so close to 4.00 for $16.

With these in hand, I noticed Bruce Chen ($10), who is already on my team. He had 13 W, 3.83 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 197.1 innings.

Garcia's numbers were better, but I had to ask myslef whether dealing Sweeney for essentially the same player was wise.

I think not, but then embarked on finding a reason why and alit upon Leo Mazzone, Chen's new pitching coach in Baltimore. By my reckoning, Chen has some room to get better under Mazzone (this time!) while I do not see Garcia improving on his ratios. (maybe worsening if his defense is worst next year. See Bronson Arroyo.)

Wednesday, November 02, 2005

Mark Buerhle vs Scott Kazmir

Buerhle is $30, and Kazmir is $10.

Buerhle has two seasons left (2006 & 2007) Kazmir has only one (2006)

Which player is more valuable?

Buerhle's relevant facts - 236.7 innings 16 W 3.12 ERA 1.18 WHIP 26 years-old

Kazmir's relevant facts - 186 innings 10 W 3.77 ERA 1.46 WHIP 22 years-old

Monday, October 31, 2005

Jason Giambi

I've written many times (here, here, here, here) about Giambi. (And about Aaron Hill, and Jonny Gomes and Brett Myers, but I digress.)

Now that he has restablished himself as a legit HR hitter again, I am getting daily offers for him. At $15, he is clearly undervalued by the same. I doubt anyone would find Giambi carrying a $30 tag in any book, but I base mine on experience (Yes, I am a scout and those books and mags are Moneyball!) Any hitter who hits 30 HR in a AL/NL-only format will go for $30+. Good or bad, it is reality and the quicker you recognize it, the easier it will be to compete.

But the offers! I am currently loaded with 1B, 2B and OF. If a team knew that, they could tailor their offer to complement that fact i.e. don't offer me a 1B, 2B or OF. An offer of a C, SS, 3B or pitcher would fit nicely.

Instead I get offers with Terence Long in them! Jeez, I already have Emil Brown. Nevermind whether I would want Terence Long if no one played the OF!

When I trade, I tend to look closely at the degree of full-value the players have. If Giambi is $15 under-valued, then I want that in return. For example, do not offer me a $14 CC Sabathia for him. I see Sabathia as, most generously described, fully-valued. (And if you add Terence Long as a sweetner....)

Even with that considered, I also look at scarcity and replacement costs. What will it take for me to land a 30 HR hitter at the draft? get a player of similar perfromance and price as the one offered? If I can't get what I deal or can get what I acquire easily, then I will require an even better offer than another player $15 under-valued.

A team could try to sweeten the offer with more players, but I usually have nearly the maximum number of keepers already so I will see that as unappealling despite the allure of future trading options.

Anyway, I am beyond trading for trading's sake. Unfortunately, this type of strategy tends towards much less trading..

Sunday, October 30, 2005


Rotoworld notes the D'Rays will pick-upthe option on Julio Lugo. This generates two questions.

The first is where BJ Upton will play in 2006. SS? 3B?

The second, and more important one, is what do you pay for Lugo? Will he steal 34 again? The answer to that is more important than Upton's position because 30+ SB is gold in AL Roto.

I do not know the answer to that question as I am still stunned he stole 34! (And was on the league-winning team along with 41-Save teammate Danys.)

Saturday, October 29, 2005

Some Thoughts

Now that the World Series is over, I need only wait another 8 or 9 days before free agent questions begin to be answered. Once this occurs, my off-season trading will quicken.


The Dodgers fired Moneyballer, Paul DePodesta. From my POV, Tommy Lasorda is a poisonous advisor. The fact he had the McCourts' ear says they are not fit to run a team. The Dodgers system looks extremely strong at the highest levels which will allow the club to make one-year gambles while feeding the roster with potential minimum salary/maximum performance players.

Where is the Bill Parcells of baseball (a manager who sees a teams full of talent and takes it over and gets credit for making it better.) Whomever takes over that club will put a play-off contender on the field. Any Roto player can step in a sign enough talent to make that so.

I wonder if ol' Tommyboy is thinking of getting back into the game?


A team made his $7 final year in 2006 Morgan Ensberg available. He wants something supersexy - a cheap stud and hot prospect, both with more time that Ensberg. This type of trade is always a loser for the one who meets the asking price as only a league win can offset the extra time available on the traded player contracts. And a league win is not guaranteed by one hitter - no matter how good or how cheap.

Nevermind, Ensberg will lose value once the season begins and teams look at his contract when considering his value. The team that traded him will have the pieces with future value.

Out of time studs must be acquired with "discounted" with-time players.

Tuesday, October 18, 2005

Chase Utley

I have him at $10 going into his final year. I am going to raise him, likely to $20. That will lock his salary in for 2006, 2007 and 2008.

I received an offer of three draft picks for him. - 4th, 13th and 17th. Normally, I take three picks for a player already priced over $20, but with the lack of stud 2B, I do not see Utley as replacable via the draft at $20. And if I backed off my first ever two-year raise, then $15 would make him untouchable.

With my experience picking minor leaguers, I am confident I can land two decent players of the three picks. (I selected Utley in the 2nd in 2002. I took Miguel Cabrera #7 in 2003.)

What I don't want to lose sight of is the fact that whomever I pick won't be better than utley in 2006. And if Utley performs at his 2005 level, then I'd have to select a Miguel Cabrera to have a chance of breaking even. (A "Miguel Cabrera" is a player taken in the draft and comes up that season and contributes immediately in a no-doubt-about-it-way. Ryan Howard is that type of player. David Wright is too.)

Friday, October 14, 2005


I just can't get myself to make trades right now, and it isn't for a lack of effort.

There is too much uncertainty at this time to deal. Free agents haven't sniffed offers. Teams haven't decided on arbitration. Too much can change, and, therefore, players values can't be reasonably ascertained. As a result, I am very cautious.

What do I give-up to the chance to draft Stephen Drew #1? A full-valued Juan Pierre? (Yes.) And undervalued Adam Everett? (Likely.) How much more than Adam Everett, if he isn't enough? Pierre and Everett? That seems to have passed into too much as Stephen Drew will not play in AZ next season versus the lock on PT (and SB production) for Everett and Pierre.

How much is potential versus real contributions worth in Rotisserie in keeper leagues?

Tuesday, October 11, 2005

Post-Season Trades

Bartolo Colon came out of last night's game with a sore shoulder.

The lesson learned is players still get hurt in post-season games and this effects Roto.

My suggestion is to hold-off dealing for any players who are still playing when the games don't count.

Sunday, October 09, 2005

Jorge Sosa

Can he repeat 2005?

One could say he cannot, but I counter that there is not enough data to establish a base performance level for Sosa for several reasons.

He spent three years in Tampa with 99.1, 128.2 and 99.1 innings pitched. Given the dysfunctional baseball practiced there, I would consider a change of scenery as a positive influence.

Also, he moved from the AL, specifically the AL East, to the NL and its 7 batter line-ups. This should be considered a major factor in improved performance.

Third, Sosa was a converted feilder so his professional; pitching experience is less than similarly aged pitchers.

This three variables combined with Leo Mazzone could lead one to believe Sosa may be this good.

Intuitively, I don't think Sosa will repeat his 2005, but I do believe he will remain a quality starting pitcher as good as Mike Hampton.

Wednesday, October 05, 2005

NL Finish

I also finished 5th in my NL league. Here the problems were much more difficult to pinpoint.

I'd certainly been better off letting Mike Adams go for $19 or Austin Kearns for $23. In the first case, closers had typically gone for more than $20. Heck Looper went for $24 the year before. I saw an opportunity to get a cheaper closer as a few teams did not have one still with only Brandon Lyon and Jose Mesa available. If I had known neither of them would break $20, I'd have let Adams go. I did throw out Turnbow for $1 at the end, when everyone was going for that, but another team went $2 and I had nothing left.

As I usually do, I sat out the high bidding on hitters figuring a slew of good players would fall into the high teens. That didn't happen unless you consider Ryan Klesko at $17 and Kenny Loften at $18 that type of player. At the time, most of the most attractive hitters were gone and going for $30+, and I had just lost out on Brad Wilkerson for $30. (Yes I took him to $29, and, yes, my season could have been worse if I did get him.)

I decided to get Kearns, a player I had hoped to get for low teens as a player who could have a breakout $25+ year. He did hit a career-high in HR and RBI, but not exactly the way I had projected. Nevermind, the month spent in AAA!

With the slew of AL pitchers making their way to the shortened NL line-ups, I targeted Tim Hudson as the most likely to approach Pedro's dominance in the ratios at a 25% discount. Huddy had been very good in those categories as an A. What I didn't forsee was his new found ability to pitch to contact! (Or whatever it was that saw his WHIP move to the 1.40 range.) He did repeat his 2nd half dominance, though, and I retained him because of it despite offers for him.

I was also on the wrong end of a couple of trades. Prior to season's start, I dealt Chad Tracy for Hee Seop Choi and Jason Nix. If I had known Tracy would set a professional high in HR while qualifying in the OF, I'd have kept him, but at the time, I saw it as a trade of HR/RBI for AVG. Heck, he nearly hit more HR in 2005 than he had in his entire professional careeer combined! (27 vs 32) Don't forget the hype surrounding Conor Jackson and the Glaus signing. Both left Tracy with nowhere to play. Or hindsight-aided, nowhere he had played before as a professional

I used Felipe Lopez in a bail trade and received Adam Everett, Jerry Hairston and Larry Walker. If other players hadn't been included, I would have won this, but unfortunately, is notYahoo! so I had to include two other active hitters. One, Kenny Kelly, worked perfectly. The other did not. JJ Hardy went on a "tear" and hit .289 with 8 HR after I dealt him and his .179 AVG. I eventually dealt Walker for a $2 Ryan Church but that was just some lipstick on a pig.

Some breakout surprises were Chase Utley, who is arguably the top NL Roto 2B, and Jorge Sosa who, despite my thoughts of him as a closer, turned out to be a much better SP while breathing the Leo Mazzone air.

I also benefited from all the pre-draft talk about Ryan Howard being blocked by Thome and grabbed him #6. He was just too good to pass-up at that point. His 21 HR were the 2nd most hit on my team after Utley. (Jason Lane finished with 25, but I dealt him when he had 17.) I did select Matt Cain at #13, too. So in my ever-aware of bail trading, I feel good going forward. ( I also acquired Jeremy Hermida in an off-season deal involving Jeromy Burnitz.)

With only three breakout surprises, my weak, but money-finishing, performance can be partly explained. However, no one decision or player can account for a disappointing season.

Monday, October 03, 2005


5th in my AL thanks is great part to Curt Schilling, Jarrod Washburn and Bob Wickman. (8, 8, and 0 wins, respectively, for 2 points total in wins.)

Also, Curt Schilling's horrendous ratios.

Other than that, I had 9 points in HR, RBI and AVG and 10 points in SB for hitting. For pitching, I finished with 9 points in Saves, 8 points in ERA (Schilling be damned!), the aforementioned 2 in Wins, and 2 points in WHIP.

Overall, a decent season as I had to overcome the immediate drop to the lower third in the standings for most of the 1st half. I also benefitted from an astute eye for call-ups as I grabbed Jonny Gomes and Scott Baker for $5 each. Either will get a good return this off-season.

Amongst my disappointments are missing that Gerald Laird was not on the active roster when I drafted him for $1. Chris Widger did just fine as a do-no-harm 2nd catcher, though. Although Ichiro had a good year (15 HR .303 AVG and 33 SB), I counted on a much higher AVG (not .370) and a couple handfuls more SB. Either of which would have made a difference of a couple points.

I projected incorrectly on Ichiro, Schilling and Washburn and did not receive any contributions in Saves from Tom Gordon or JJ Putz.

Amongst my successes were trading Tony Womack right after his 14 SB tear for Craig Monroe, drafting Emil Brown for $3, waiving him for Gomes at $5, and claiming Brown off waivers afterwards. Also, I didn't trade any relievers were turned into closers later in the season. ( I just hate that.)

Friday, September 30, 2005

Denard Span

I've got 5 on my NL minor league draft list (at least 19 more to go).

On my AL list is the most obvious, Brandon Wood. Howie Kendrick is there, as is Jered Weaver.

Alex Gordon is defintely there.

Denard Span is the one I anticipate being available when my turn comes up at #8. Jason Kubel will get all the attention (rightly so), but Span is a SB with a very good OBP and an All-Star blocking him in Torii Hunter.

If Hunter does believe he will become prohibitively expensive for the Twins, Span will be the obvious choice to take over. 2007 looks good.

As important is he will generate the type of coverage in 2006 that will make him a desirable piece in a trade.

My top picks aren't as developed as my NL ones because I am picking so late in the round.

Greg Maddux

His days as a high teens/ low twenties SP are over.

The only things keeping him at the level was reputation, WHIP and the solidity of 15 W.

The first and third are too much to overcome the second, and at 1.20, even that is not considered outstanding.

Based on his 2005 numbers (13 W, 4.18 ERA and 1.20 WHIP), I place his value in the low double digits. Anything more will be a reflection of reputation (that and a $.25 will get you a NYPost) and the hope that his WHIP will remain at 1.20 over 200 innings, but who would chance that after seeing the ERA rise the past three years and the W total decline?

Thursday, September 29, 2005

Curt Schilling

No matter what he does on Sunday, he was a major contributor to many lost seasons. 200 innings of 3.00/1.10 with 15+ wins is what each team expected for their $30+ draft investment.

What they got was 1997 Norm Charlton!

I can't imagine any team protecting him next draft, so he will bear watching.

Wednesday, September 28, 2005

Meriden, CT

I am from this gritty, working class town. If you are too, leave a comment.

Tuesday, September 27, 2005

Nelson Cruz

He certainly had the numbers and success at AA and AAA this season to merit serious Top 10 draft status next Spring.

I do wonder where he will play as Lee, Clark, and the surprisingly healthy, Geoff Jenkins seem locked into the three OF spots. Plus, Corey Hart is also currently ahead of him

But 27/81/19/.386 OBP/.540 SLG is too good to pass-up. He could be as high as #3 in my draft.

By my tally, the order is Zimmerman, Drew, Pence, Sanders and Cruz with Cruz looking better than Pence right now. But with 6+ months to go, this list is sure to change.
Hopefully, the Mets have seen enough of Heilman to know he can close. Otherwise, there is little reason to trot Ol' Roberto out to the mound for closing opportunities.

What exactly else could account for Randolph's decision to use him to close out last night's game?

Monday, September 26, 2005

Aaron Heilman

He's saved two of the last three wins for the Mets with Ol' Roberto Hernandez garnering the other.

As I picked-up Heilman to replace Tyler Walker, I have a vested interest in this development. While I did consider the possibility of Heilman closing (every reliever I pick-up begins with that scenario), I mostly wanted him for decent middle relief innings with the possibility of a couple wins.

After adding him to my team, I began to read the local NY sports columnists, and they would suggest Heilman as the closer. My hopes rose.

Unfortunately, I do not see the Mets going into next year wanting to build off this season's success with an unproven closer. Add in that there should be several available (Wagner, Farnsworth, Urbina, Ryan, Dempster, Jones, Gordon, Wickman, Mesa, Hoffman), my hopes are seriously tempered.

In Heilman's favor would be the money necessary to sign one of these proven closers could be used to address 1B, 2B and C either via free agency or a contract trade.

Richie Sexson

How about this nugget from the end of this notebook:

"Richie Sexson....last Safeco home run, a first-inning solo shot in the first inning of the Mariners' home game against the Angels on Sept. 14, was his 20th at home."

Any questions about hitting at Safeco have been answered.

Now onto Adrian beltre.....

Friday, September 23, 2005

Fantasy Baseball - Fantasy Baseball News from

Nate Stephens list for 2006 is interesting. On one of my teams, I have Church, Howard, Kearns and Choi. The latter three for the entire 2005 season.

I dealt Lane in mid-August for a better contract Juan Encarnacion and Cory Patterson, and dealt Hardy in early June.

All said, I see both Hardy and Choi as great sleeper picks in 2006. Hardy will be one because his good second half cannot make-up for his putrid first. While his second half numbers will launch him on to everyone's off-season sleeper list, his overall numbers will be so bad as to make him a late draft player regardless. There will be too many other players listed above him.

Choi is perfect as a sleeper. He has disappointed teams since 2001 after appearing in Baseball America's Top Ten for the Cubs. With that kind of disappointment history, there will be very few teams in anyone's league who have not suffered at Choi's hands - the team that originally drafted him in the minor league draft, the team he was dealt to in a bail trade, the team that obtained him in another bail trade in 2003, the team that traded him again after the head injury, the team that protected him in 2004 and then traded him after his trade to LA, the team that dealt him in the off-season after his Septemebr 2005 benching, the team that protected him in 2005, the team that traded him in 2005.....Oh wait, it finally stopped with me.

I see him going for a $1 or $2 at the end of the draft and delivering 15+ HR in 2006.

Marcus Sanders

Baseball America - Stats

Here is another NL prospect on my Roto draft list. His 57 SB and .407 OBP have me thinking 2B in 2007 when Bonds is gone and Alou is gone and Durham is gone and Snow is gone and.......

You get the picture. San Francisco will be in a major retooling in 2007 and I think Marcus Sanders could be right in the mix if he comes close to duplicating his 2005 numbers in 2006.

And with that kind of speed, he needn't even start in order to be a good Roto player.

Tentatively, he is #4 for me. (The Jason Lane thing! He should be ahead of Pence!!!)

Hunter Pence

I am always thinking who I want to grab next Spring in my various minor league drafts.

In the NL, Stephen Drew and Ryan Zimmerman appear to be the top two candidates with Zimmerman possibly making the Nats Opening Day roster.

Given the 3rd pick is my worst case scenario, I'd prefer to have three or four names lined-up for that spot.

Hunter Pence is definitely right there. (Whaaaaat? You're going to take another Astros OF prospect who can mash and risk waiting three or four years a la Jason Lane?)

He hit 31 HR in Single A this year which primes him to begin next season in AA. This is close enough to the majors to envision a call-up in 2006 or a shot in 2007. (I know the Jason lane thing again.)

He also hit over .300 which leads to me hope he will have a decent OBP regardless of non-Hermida-esque walk rates.

Anyhow, he is currently at my #3 spot after Zimmerman and Drew.

Jenks lets another go

I guess I needn't ask how the Jenks-as-closer is going.

Wednesday, September 21, 2005

Matt Holliday

Two HRs and 8 RBIs will always grab headlines in baseball.

What will grab Roto players is the great numbers he has posted in an injury-shortened season - .307 AVG 17 HRs, 77 RBIs and 11 SB in 430 ABs (113 G).

This leads to an easy 2006 projection of 26 HR, 116 RBI and 17 SB. And, no doubt, some team will project that for 2006. Holliday is also likely to be inexpensive as he was not a highly-regarded prospect in 2003. That salary, along with that projection, will have teams hot and heavy for him this off-season.

And that team which gets him will likely fall flat next year and wonder what happened.

What will not be given full weight is the fact that the league will adjust to the new clean-up hitter in Colorado and will see the Rox were surprising good in the latter half of the season. This will focus other teams' competitive energies

Is there any reason to think Holliday will be able to build upon this season's production after the league has a full off-season to look for weaknesses to exploit?

I do not think so.

Tuesday, September 20, 2005

Craig Hansen

Man, the off-season hype will rival the release of a new Harry Potter book if Hansen pitches the remainder of the year like he did last night.

He may be a prime candidate to bring up early in the draft so the most money possible can chase him.

Damaso Marte

So let me see if I have this straight.

Last week, Chisox manager, Ozzie Guillen, basically tells Marte to take a hike, and this week he is in a closer committee vs lefty batters?

Dustin Hermanson loses his job, and Bobby Jenks is now in the closer committee vs right-handed hitters?

I have a baaaaaaaaaaaaad feeling about this.

Monday, September 19, 2005

After a busy weekend -stag on Friday, Mets-Braves on Saturday and Jets-Dolphins on Sunday, I feel I can maybe, possibly get back to some blogging.

A note from Saturday: Mike Jacobs' HR was a bomb!

As I watch the season end in personal disappointment, I feel my energy sapping for regular season posting. A sort of learned helplessness behavior.

Some good news this AM was Jorge Sosa's elevation to the #3 starter on the Braves. As I hold him at $1, he should provide some interesting bait beginning in two weeks.

I have marked as a big 2005 Bright Spot my dealing of an out-of-time Jason Isrignhausen for $10 Dontrelle Willis. This was a perfect example of making a trade I was guaranteed to win regardless of what happened in Saves.

Which, in a spot brightening way, worked perfectly as I rode Tyler Walker, picked-up Duaner Sanchez and dealt Jerry Hairston for Armando Benitez on 8/15.

Hence, maintaining my spot in Saves while improving in Ws, WHIP and ERA.

Another lesson was "punting" saves. This only worked, though, because I watch the free agent pool looking for closing candidates like a hawk over a meadow looking for mice. If I punted Saves and passively waited for a pitcher on my staff to become a closer, then it would have failed.

Dontrelle's 13 Ws were much more than I expected at the time of the trade. (Should be 14 by now, but Cy Young resume buttressing by Mckeon hurt on Saturday.)

Friday, September 16, 2005

Ronny Cedeno

A 3rd post on Ronny Cedeno.

He is out for the season and currently carries a $10 free agent pool salary.

The issue is whether to waive him and pick-up another player from the pool.

He is defintely a "pre-sleeper". GM Jim Hendry says he will be in the 2006 line-up at either 2B or SS. However, Dusty baker is the manager and Todd Walker will be at 2B, and Neifi Perez at SS.

I do not see any way Cedeno is given everyday ABs, and I suspect other teams in my league will conclude similarly if they are aware of Cedeno at all.

As such, I believe he can be waived this season and obtained at the draft next year for less than $10.

A player whom I equate Cedeno to right now in terms of draft day salary is Felipe Lopez of Cincinnati. He was in a similar situation as Cedeno - purported to be in the 2005 lineup- and he went for $5 at the end of the draft. Also, FLo had two veterans with which to compete in D'Angelo Jimenez at 2B and Rich Aurilia at SS and the comparison becomes eerily similar.

While projecting any unknown quantity to breakout like Flo 2005 (20/70/13/.280) is silly, I can see Cedeno being Bill Hall helpful

With the Crusty Dusty factor, I think $5 is the upper limit of his draft salary with a possibility of undrafted being the lower one.

Thursday, September 15, 2005

Only two/three weeks to go and the off-season trading period begins.

Assuming your league has a trading deadline, the first few days after the season ends are a good time to acquire players who you think are primed for a step-up in performance but have not yet been identified as "sleepers" by the various internet Roto experts. This is os because their is likely a build-up of unspent trading energy in the league. Take advantage of it because once those "sleepers" start being named, the price tags will skyrocket.

Francisco Liriano will be no easier to grab than the first few days of October. And even then, I suspect he will be fetching a $15+ value.

Staying with the Minnesota 2006 rotation, Scott Baker will come cheaper the sooner you can acquire him as I see the nominal starting five as Santana, Radke, Silva, Liriano, Baker.

As I shift gears into off-season mode, I will post more players who I think fit this criteria - "pre-sleepers", to coin a phrase.

All Star Stats

After 145 or so games of the 2005 Rotisserie season, All Star Stats has finally concluded their live scoring sucked. As VP Cheney would say, "Big Time."

I am at a loss how they stay in business with such crappy customer knowledge and fees that are so exhorbitant that they had better worry AG Spitzer will turn on them in hopes of capturing the fantasy vote.

Wednesday, September 14, 2005

2006 Huston Street

Who will be the reliever in 2006 that makes the other teams say, "I knew he'd be the closer! Why didn't I go one more dollar!?"

Huston Street was this year's reliever. He went for $12.

What needs to be recalled is Octavio Dotel was the Oakland closer at the time with only conjecture that he'd be dealt mid-season at which time, Street could be elevated into the role of closer.

As the A's were in the playoff chase, there was little chance Dotel, barring injury, would have been dealt. And if that had been the case, then there'd be no second-guessing on Street.

Would Street have been protected in 2006 at $12? Yes as he would be entering the spring as the nominal closer. What would not have occurred is his presence on the original team that drafted him. With no closing in 2005, he'd have been traded in a push toward the 2005 money.

As for that reliever who will be in Street's shoes in 2006 (or Francisco Rodriguez's circa 2004), it will be Craig Hansen. With Foulke having been awful this season, he will be the one of the returning closers on the shakiest footing.

Monday, September 12, 2005

Pirates open up closer role -

Go get Salomon Torres, and if available, Mike Gonzalez.

Keep in mind that their is a new manager and he may be more predictable than the Tike Redmen-ophile, Lloyd McClendon.

Thursday, September 08, 2005

Steroids have staying power

Giambi has admitted to using Deca Duabolin. Experts concur with that it could remain in the system for 16+ months because it is oil-based and gets into fat cells.

Giambi has already been tested for steroids and this was not uncovered.

It certainly lends credence to his assertion that he is no longer taking steroids.

Whether he meant that steroid will remain unanswerable.

Wednesday, September 07, 2005

Scot Shields

He has 19 decisions as a reliever????

He is the 2005 example of why middle relievers are better than starting pitchers on bad teams.

Any starter on KC have 8 Ws? a 2.93 ERA? 1.16 WHIP? 84 Ks? (Just kidding. Greinke has 96.)

Monday, September 05, 2005

Ronny Cedeno

Recently, I read something quite dismissive of Ronny Cedeno. (Why isn't there a link? isn't that why you blog?)

Apparently, Dusty baker did not. To quote:
"He's pretty close to me,'' Baker said. "Yeah, he's real close. He can run. He can hit-and-run. He works hard and is respectful -- confident but not arrogant. He has to work on getting his throw truer. His throw now kind of runs into the runner. Those are things we have to work on and correct.
"I have always wanted to have a Rookie of the Year. I know how much it means to the organization and the person because I could have been Rookie of the Year and wasn't. He's going to be a fine player. It's a matter of when we have to clear a spot for him, and do we hold somebody in reserve in case he doesn't do it?''

Seems I was closer to the truth than that unlinked sports writer. And considerably sooner (6/29/05).

Sunday, September 04, 2005

Matt Cain

He threw a gem against the D'backs today. One could say the competition isn't that great.

I'd counter that Cain's performance versus his division rivals is a valuable piece of information as the unbalanced schedule will get him up to 25% of his starts against those teams.

If I had to put a guess on Cain's 2006 performance, I would say an NL-equivalent of Scott Kazmir. This would mean 10-15% more strikeouts than SK and an ERA and Ratio reduced by the same. Add in a favorable pitchers park for half his starts and a 3.75 ERA is not out of the realm of possibility.

Thursday, September 01, 2005

Baseball America - Prospect Hot Sheet

Baseball America - Prospect Hot Sheet

A quick look at the Top 20 and you only find 8 NL-ers, and of those, three are pitchers and three play in short-season leagues.

The hitters are AAA Ryan Zimmerman who I do not believe will be in AAA on Opening Day 2006, AA Lastings Milledge (currently blocked by Carlos Beltran), High A catcher Jarrod Saltamacchia (effectively blocked by Brian McCann) and short-season Of Andrew McCutchen. (Let's get him to High A before thinking about who is blocking him.)

(Seemingly all the other players are Angels.)

Lede Continued

I forgot Edwin Encarnacion and Lance Niekro.

If the NL rookie list is expanded to include players in their first full-year of full-time PT or 2nd year like David Wright, Jose Reyes, Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, Garret Atkins, Khahil Greene, Chad Tracy, Felipe Lopez, Jason Lane, Jose Castillo, then you have an even more impressive list of future All-Stars.

One or two years experience for a list like this means there are fewer ready-for-the majors players at AA and AAA.

It also means there won't be openings at the major-league level until the end of the decade when this wave become arbitration-eligible and/ free agent-eligible.

That leads me to conclude the future of the large market teams is poor as there won't be a lot of stud free agents available during those years.

From a Roto POV, it means the NL minor league drafts will not have much low-lying fruit, so unless you are very knowledgable about the minors, you should not be amassing picks in trades. If anything, you should be trading them.

Wednesday, August 31, 2005

Jeremy Hermida

Wow. A grand slam in his first major league AB. SI jumped the gun on Francouer. A couple weeks wait and both would have made a great cover.

I've been thinking about next year's NL minor league draft and can not come up with sure fire studs. Stephen Drew and Ryan Zimmerman are the obvious ones. Carlos Quentin, too, but I wouldn't expect him not to have been taken last draft. The same with Joel Guzman. Andy LaRoche was takne in my NL draft but I can see him not having been taken in most other ones.

But when I think about all the rookies this season, I understand better. Jeff Francouer. Jeremy hermida. Ryan Howard. Matt Cain. Brian McCann. Victor Diaz. Ryan Church. Andy Marte. Conor Jackson. Willy Tavares. Richie Weeks. Prince Fielder. Cory Hart. Zach Duke. Brad Eldred. Matt Murton. Brad Hawpe. Clint Barmes.

That is quite a wave of futre All-Stars. Maybe the minors need to rebuild its talent base?

Deivi Cruz

This acquistion definitely puts a crimp in the possibility of Ryan Zimmerman making a meaningful September contribution, and it certainly squashes my dreams of him appearing more frequently at SS and being eligible there for the 2006 draft and season.

Steve Finley

To the bench. He has been so bad that he is not even a part in a platoon - DH or CF.

I'm going to stick with an expected draft price of $18, but this situation definitely has me thinking lower.

Tuesday, August 30, 2005

Bill Hall

Bill Hall

Here is a player to sell high this off-season. He is going to be very close to 20/20 with 2B/SS/3B eligibility.

I have no doubt those factors will be too hard to ignore for at least one other owner.

The reason to trade him for all you can get is a direct function of 2006 playing time. With Weeks at 2B until the end of the decade, Hall will not see enough appearances at 2B to remain eligble in 2007 much less garner meaningful ABs there. Heck, he may not be eligble for 2006. (I think he will but he will need 4 more appearances at the position.)

The Brewers have stuck with JJ Hardy when he should have been in AAA this year. Now that his bat is picking-up some, I see no reason he won't play even more in 2006. (He hit .182 in the first three months - 29/159 - and has hit .264 in July and August - 45/134.) There goes the majority of Hall's 2005 ABs.

His best chance for meaningful ABs, barring injury, will be at 3B. But, with Russ Brnayan's left-handed-power and OBP along with Hall's righty bat, BH finds himslef on the worng sde of a platoon.

In the Spring, there were rumblings of Hall seeing time in CF. That is out as Brady Clark has turned into a legitimate everyday OF, and with Corey Hart likely to remain as a 4th OF and Nelson Cruz having a great AA/AAA year (.390 OBP, 26 HR 18 SB), I doubt there will be any regular ABs as a 4th OF either.

Also during the Spring, I said Hall would be a great Roto player this year, and I was right on that. And I think will will remain a great Rot player next year - as the 13th, 14th or 15ht player on a roster. Just as I said. What changed is the haul you can land for him this off-season.

Eric Bedard

He will be a player I expect to go for too much next draft.

I expect the off-season commentary to be glowing, and this will produce positive momentum going into next year's drafts. $20 or so will not surprise me.

My expectations are a $9-$13 player similar to Jarrod Washburn.

Monday, August 29, 2005

Sammy Sosa

Slain by an unhealing nick of the toe!

He is the new Juan Gonzalez, but won't ratchet down the ladder in draft day salary like the multi-divorcee did.

Sammy went for $36. (Yes, there was high inflation.) I suspect he goes for no more than $15. More likely $10.

(Juan Gonzalez went for $5.)

Steve Finley

If he is truly suffering from a season-long shoulder injury and not recovery-enhancement pharmeceutical withdrawal, then he is a prime target for next year's draft.

He fetched $30 this past draft. I'd expect him to fall to $18 or $19 if his name is called at the same point (about halfway when there are much fewer decent hitters.)

If he came out early, I could see a $13-$15 tag.

Either way, if your roster is set-up with surethings, then he could be a part of a 2006 winning team.

Sunday, August 28, 2005

Mike Sweeney

I fell out of my bed last night around 2:00.

Now I know why.

"Sweeney, the Kansas City Royals first baseman, reportedly has cleared waivers and still could be dealt this season, but not at the price the Angels were asked to pay before the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline. According to the source, the Angels would have had to deal pitcher Ervin Santana, first baseman Casey Kotchman and a middle infield prospect, an area in which the Angels are well-stocked with Alberto Callaspo, Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick and Brandon Wood"

I'd think Santana or Kothcman or Kendrick or Wood or Aybar would be a great deal for the Royals.

There have been no indicators that Stoneman would act so stupidly. Who do the Royals think runs the Angels? Allan Baird?

Friday, August 26, 2005

The Cain Train

While Brett Tomko hasn't pitched poorly, the Giants have decided that Matt Cain's time has come.

If this were a site that dealt in Ks, then I would urge anyone to grab him.

As it isn't, any teams out of the running should get him as quickly as possible. And any teams without concern for their WHIP should, too.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2004 Scott Kazmir-like debut - a gem against the top team and a stinker against the Rockies.

Inside Info?

No sooner do I criticize the Dodgers than Baseball America runs what is likely a cover story for the magazine titled, "Rising Suns: Dodgers Double A Affiliate is the Most Talented Team in the Minor Leagues." (Subscription likely required)

Thursday, August 25, 2005

Mike MacDougal

He is the closer for the Kansas City Royals. My first instinct is to ask whether a team with no wins can have someone to close those wins, but I digress.

What is he worth right now? His current stats are not bad (3.79 ERA and 1.40 WHIP) and are slightly better than those he posted in his previous season as the closer (2003 4.08 ERA and 1.50 WHIP)

An interesting statistical note is his strikeouts are up from that season while his walks are way down from 32 in 64 IP to 23 in 57 IP. This indicates he's learned something about pitching.

With this in mind, I'd say his 2003 value is wrapped up in how Saves would affect your team. If the category is tight, any additional saves can mean a point per save. An additional considerations are the actual number of saves he could garner for the Royals.

With 38 games remaining, the Royals would win 13 if they could match their current winning percentage. 20 of the 41 Royals wins resulted in a save. Applying that 50% save rate to the projected 13 Ws, their will be 6 or 7 more saves in 2003.

I don't think those Saves are worth much in 2003. Obviously, if a point ot two or three separates you from the league title and/or you or your competitior are close in Saves, then it is worth more.

If you are not in that type of race, then MacD's 2003 value is very low.

However, I think MacD will close in 2004. If his improved walks and strikeouts stay and he continues to give-up fewer HRs than Burgos, then I think he gets the veteran's benefit-of-the-doubt and stays in the role.

This will not be the popular off-season view so begin whetting your knife in order to scalp the current MacD owner this winter. (Did the NCAA ban the use of Native American actions too?)

Wednesday, August 24, 2005

Los Angeles Dodgers

When, oh, when, will Depodesta just call-up a whole slew of prospects a la the Atlanta Braves?

The current line-up must rank as the worst in baseball. When Milton Bradley is the 2nd best hitter that says it all. He has never driven in more than 67 runs nor has he ever hit 20 HRs.

Ricky Ledee? Jayson Werth? Oscar Robles? Jason Phillips?
Cesar Izturis? Jose Valentin?

Now calling-up AA and AAA players is one step ahead. The first step should be forcing manager Jim Tracy to play Hee Seop Choi at 1B. If he refuses, fire him. Jason Phillips should never play ahead of Choi. Never.

The team cannot be worse with Joel Guzman, Delmon Young and Willy Aybar garnering the ABs at SS and 3B. Nor with Todd Donovan roaming in the OF. Or with Russ Martin getting on-base as at C.

And worst, this shake-up would generate excitement for the remainder of the season and for next year.

At best, the Dodgers find their Jeff Francouer or Robinson Cano - a deemed not-ready MLB who certainly is ready. Maybe more than one.

Tuesday, August 23, 2005

Zach Duke

Sorry about the late post but I was over here.

Rotoworld comments that Zach Duke will face one of the toughest lineups he will see this season in the ST Louis Cardinals.

I understand Pujols is one of the best hitters in baseball and Jim Edmonds is no slouch, but other than those two hitters, where is the fear coming from?

David Eckstein? Abraham Nunez? John Mabry? Yadier Molina? Hector Luna? Larry Walker?

I don't think so. The Cards are a house of Cards and are my early prediction of 1st round play-off losers.

This team is no different than the Oakland A's clubs of Hudson, Zito and Mulder who couldn't hit enough to win. And they had a much better offense with Giambi, Chavez, Tejada, Damon, Dye and Ramon Hernandez.

FWIW: Duke has faced MLW, PHI, CHC, COL, FLA ATL, LA, HOU, and NYM. Of these nine teams, only COL and LA have worse line-ups than the Cardinals. The Mets are even.

Monday, August 22, 2005


That was quick.

Granted, Alou didn't annoint Benitez the official closer, but there are $14 mm or so reasons to think the official annointment is unnecessary


As I understand the August waiver process, any player on the 40-man roster must be passed through waivers in order to be traded.

If this is so, what do the Twins have that the Rangers want?

Mays and Lohse? More likely, Scott Baker, a player I'd fall down dead if he cleared waivers.

Denard Span is a AA CF who could help Texas.

Without knowing who cleared waivers on the Twins 25-man roster, I cannot intellignetly guess. However, that won't stop me.

Lew Ford seems superfluous for the Twins. Not to mention his production is down from 2004. But would Texas want another Dave Dellucci- or Gary Matthews-type?

Or more snarkily put, will the 2007 Rangers manager want a roster full of Buck Showalter scrappy types.

Seems Texas has no intentions of dealing Soriano. There just doesn't seem to be fair value available.

If they do, then they made a Chan Ho Park-esque mistake by not dealing him pre-August 1st.

Thursday, August 18, 2005

Duaner Sanchez

Another save tonight. He is the LA closer right now, and with only 40 games left in the season, there is no time to waste in making haste to get him.

I have not completely written-off Jim Tracy doing something inexplicable with Brazoban, but I don't think there is enough time in the season to risk waiting for that to occur.

As for Steve Schmoll? Not a sniff of the 8th inning much the 9th. ( last three appearances - 2.2 IP, 8 ER, 11 runners.) However, that does not mean he won't be a $1 end-of-the-draft pitcher next year. Being named a co-closer, no matter for how short a time, does that in Roto.

Armando Benitez

I have the impression that the Roto experts are not counting on Armando to close soon in SF. Most recently expressed here.

I completely disagree. As a one-inning pitcher, he could be back in form in the six weeks prior to Opening Day 2006 aka Spring Training. Assuming Brian Sabian deserves the accolades showered upon him, then one must conclude Benitez is ready to close now or very well close enough to now.

Otherwise, the rewriting of history to remove any references to Sabian's intellect and wisdom would make the most devoted fan of collectivization proud..

So if you rely on Tyler Walker, grab Benitez. If you need saves, grab Benitez as my analysis will soon become the accepted wisdom, and his value will go immediately to $20+ closer.

League Sites

One of my NL leagues uses All-Star Stats and has done so for many years.

I have moved, or provided support for, the other two leagues I compete in to TQ Stats service.

Mostly, it was a financial decision as TQS was $100 or so and ASS was over $500.

Every so often during the season and off-season, a team or two agitate to go back to ASS because it is easier on the eyes.

The underlying assumption was both sites provided the same statistical information and updates.

However, that no longer seems to be true. ASS has been updating their standings late every morning whereas TQS is updated by the time I awake for work (6 AM or so).

I was only aware that ASS wasn't updated by the time I left for work (6:45 AM). By the time I called my brother in Seattle near lunch time (12 PM), the standings would be updated.

What has occurred is my brother moved to RI in July and can check ASS all frickin' morning waiting for the latest standings - and they are not up!

He guesses ASS needs more capacity. I wonder whether their extravagent fees relative to the rest of the market have finally caught-up to them and have caused a drop in revenue.

Eddie Guardado

Chicago's Daily Southtown reports Guardado has cleared waivers according to a source in the M's organization.

I find this very, very hard to believe. Tha Yankees and Red Sox didn't claim him? Puh-leaze.

And I say that as an owner who protected a $10 JJ Putz this year and have been holding on to him for just this the type of news the DS reports.

Wednesday, August 17, 2005

John Rodriguez

John Rodriguez : - John Rodriguez Biography from

As he is likely on his way to the waiver wire as I close-in on a trading deadline tonight, I thought I let everyone know it is time to bail on him.

12-50 with two doubles in August, 2 bases-on-balls and 17 strikeoutsleads me to think there was a reason he was still in AAA at 27-years-old.

With Larry Walker ready to return, JRod's ABs will decrease. Taguchi scorching post-ASB will not help.

Rosters expand in two weeks so there will be even more options for LaRussa to demonstrate his micro-managing genius. That also coincides with what will be Larry Walker's last regular season cortisone shot.

Tuesday, August 16, 2005


First, I draw attention to his lack of walks.

Then, Matt Watson picks-up on it. (Scroll to bottom.)

And now, Rob Neyer.

I think we may have reached a tipping point so if you haven't hoisted him upon another owner, your time may have run out and now you must suffer the carnage! - Sox tab Anderson over Griffey?for now

Unfortunately, Anderson only stole three bases this season despite swiping 13 in 2004.

However, Ozzie likes to run so I would not be surprised to see Anderson swipe a handful over the rest of the season.

And if you already had Nick Punto, those 5 additional bags can prevent you from overpaying for a SB guy. (40 games left. 8 SB = 32 for full year.)

Monday, August 15, 2005

Matt LeCroy

Sadly, the 4-year run of catcher-eligibility is over.

I always found him to be a much better value at catcher than some of the everyday bums like Dan Wilson who inevitabley were drafted because they were starting backstops.

I do think LeCroy could have a nice $1 career as a back-up DH/1B. His walk rate has improved considerably and he has power. Smells like an Oakland A to me.

Discontent continues among five outfielders

Brandon Watson?!?!?!?

Come on. If there is a problem in the Nats OF due to too many OFers, a AAA call-up is not part of it.

This situation is Jim Bowden's tar baby as he could not resist trading for the greatly-diminshed Preston Wilson, and then to combine it with a manager of Frank Robinson's proclivity ("You're going to get a guy (Wilson), and then in less than a month you're going to give up on him?"

The short and simple answer is "Yes" if he is hurting the team, and a .216 AVG does just that for a squad with offense issues.
Podsednik's leg injury stokes Griffey rumors

Griffey to the White Sox makes sense despite the ABs issue right now, but that clears-up on October 3 as Everett is a free agent and Big Hurt is likely out.

From a prospect standpoint, the Chisox have Brian Anderson at AAA and he is ready for a cup of big leagues joe.

Chris Young looks very exciting, and if the Mike Cameron comparisons are correct, then the Reds get back the same player they dealt to Seattle for Griffey.

Cincinnatti would be foolish to not deal Griffey for a package of prospects led by Chris Young. Takers for griffey are few and far between.

Thursday, August 11, 2005

Matt Cain

Baseball America - Stats

He won't be 21 until October 1st.

He has struck out 152 PCL hitters in 128 innings.

He has given-up 105 hits in those 128 innings.

He would move from a hitter's league to a pitcher's park in SF.

Get him if you can. With Felix Hernandez garnering all the phenom hype, he may be easier to land especially if you ignore the four points I provide and only focus on his 4.64 ERA and 68 BBS.


LA Daily News - Sports

Boom! He explodes again. Turns out I was right to be concerned

If the Dodgers had a clear-cut option, Brazoban would be out of the role. Maybe what the Dodgers need to do is sneak a Hee Seop Choi mask on Brazoban so Tracy will stop playing him?
Ryan Howard

He is a no-doubt $20 player for the remainder of 2005.

More importantly, Jim Thome injury updates will be everywhere for until he returns. The speculation and prognostication will inevitably have a value-dampening effect on Howard's perceived value.

Make him a top off-season priority. And in a best-case value-dampening proposition, Thome will be (nearly) ready to play by Opening Day. This should bring Howard to the nadir of his value through the end of the decade.

Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Rich Hill

Smoked again when he should be throwing smoke.

If you play in a 5X5, then someone was screwed by the false promises of strikeouts.

Rich Hill

Smoked again when he should be throwing smoke.

If you play in a 5X5, then someone was screwed by the false promises of strikeouts.

Deadline deals

As we approach the Rotisserie trade deadline, teams should be seriously be considering trading any of their players whose contracts run out at season's end.

Why? Simply because those players have no value the day after the season ends. This is the same reason bailing teams should only deal these types of players.

Unfortunately, too many teams misconflate dealing out-of-time players with bailing and keep these players until the ned of the season. Will the team that currently refuses to deal a $50 out-of-time (although that needn't have been written as a $50 Beltran is not a protectable player any longer) Beltran for a $1 with an additional year remaining Chris Capuano suffer immediate buyers remorse on October 1? Guaranteed.

Will Beltran finally earn the salary paid for him based on last season's stats? Not guaranteed, and given the amount of booing and subsequent reporting of that booing in the NY press, not likely.

Equally as important, could Beltran's hoped-for contribution move the standings? This is where the serious calculating must take place. If your team can afford to trade him because HR, RBI, and SB offer little more than +/- 2 points, then you should move him. If those categories are tightly bunched, maybe not.

As for dealing an easily protectable $1 Chris Capuano, so what? He could have one stinker over his final 10 starts and have worse numbers for the aquiring team than those one your team. Or you could find a way to grab the ubiquitous reliever from the free agent pool via FAAB.

From the acquring team's POV, his season-long numbers will still be attractive for $1 which will make him a bargaining chip over the long off-season. And having those are what slakes the thirst of the serious Roto player in anticipation of Spring Training 2006

Jaimie Moyer

New York Post Online Edition: sports

So he nixed a trade to the Yankees. After previously exercising his contractual rights in veteoing a trade to Houston, another play-off contender, prior to the July 31 deadline, he clearly has no intentions of playing for a winner.

Where are all the baseball purists deriding him his "selfishness"?

Tuesday, August 09, 2005

Anyone else notice that Mike Piazza's season is arguably as good as Joe Mauer's season?

Carl Pavano

Imagine he has a shoulder tear and comes back in 2007 throwing softer. $22 million richer to boot!

Pena isn't happy waiting for chance to start for Reds

Pena isn't happy waiting for chance to start for Reds

Poor Wily. He is caught in the Reds strategic move towards becoming the Tampa Bay Devil Rays of the NL.

This is a quite amusing article as its first part deals with Wily's lack of PT. The second part is Jerry Narron lamenting he can't find time for Ray Olmedo!

Hal McCoy has quite a sense of humor.

Monday, August 08, 2005

Jeff Francoeur

Yahoo! Sports - MLB - Jeff Francoeur

Still no bases-on-balls. Hopefully, you brought him up from your farm and you are in the running for first because he should be dealt in a bail trade right now.

He's doing better in the majors than he was doing in AA. He only hit 13 HR in 335 ABs in AA with 13 BBs.

Trade him now if you are in the running. His fast start is going to end and will be replaced with a finish that will hurt your AVG.

Jonny Gomes

He set the TB rookie HR record yesterday with his 13th.

For a perrenial last place franchise to have never had a rookie hit more than 13 HR in a season is pathetic.

How does anyone keep their job down there?

And just think Piniella wasn't even playing him at the beginning of May, and he was sent to the minors to boot!

Sunday, August 07, 2005

I'm back from a week in Vermont and will get to posting by tomorrow morning.

Saturday, July 30, 2005


New York Post Online Edition: sports

A $19 MM per year for three years OF liability in the NL?

And I thought pursuing Delgado to play 1B was a poor decision from a defense standpoint.

I know Minaya recognizes the marketing possibilities of Latin players, but, dude, there are tons and tons and tons of Latin players. There is no need to grab a headline one who isn't a good fit. (And despite Beltran's season so far, he was a great signing.)

Soriano would be a much better fit. And worst case, you let him walk after 2006, and the Mets will have paid him less than Manny would have gotten through 2006.

From a Roto perspective, a max FAAB bid on Manny is a no-brainer.

The rest is unconfirmable, but any starting player with Roto skills merits a $15+ bid at this point.

Friday, July 29, 2005

Manny Ramirez

New York Post Online Edition: sports

This may be missed amongst all the hoopla of trades this weekend.

Larry Lucchino told WEEI that this is the 4th straight year Manny has requested a trade. 4th?!?!?! This is only his 5th in Beantown!

If only other players could play so well in unhappy circumstances. (See Kevin Brown, Jeff Weaver, Javier Vasquez)


I like the deal for the Yanks because Chacon is young and provides me more comfort than Leiter, Nomo and TBA.

The two pitchers they surrendered where a little old for AA and will never appear to be good if they pitch in Colorado.

Chacon throws across his body and that always concerns me, but other than that, a good deal for the Yanks.

This is the equivalent of dealing a minor leaguer like Ryan Sweeney for Orlando Cabrera. Almost no risk on your part as Sweeney may never reach the majors and Cabrera could contribute across the board this season and will retain value next season.

(Where has Sweeney's power gone? Not that he had a lot but zero HRs this year?)


Dan Graziano of the Star-Ledger in Newark, NJ, reports the Mets and Rangers are close to a Cameron/Milledge/top pitching prospect for Soriano and Adrian Gonzalez.

That would be an incredible Rotisserie deal! Soriano is a max FAAB player, and Gonzlaez has definite 2006 value and would be a solid $15-$20 bid if he is added to the MEts roster.

Cameron would also merit a large FAAB bid as his SB and move to a hitter-friendly park would be more than offset the his negative AVG.

Milledge would become a 1st round draft pick next year. The pitching prospect may, too, but I would be extremely wary of drafting Texas minor leaguers. (See Mario Ramos.)

As for the effect on the real baseball league, the Mets get a power bat, a major-league starting B and a cheap 1B. The Rangers get a 7-day a week OF and a top OF prospect who may be a a seven-day-a-week one and another arm to parade out to the mound for the typical shelllacking.

Extra Innings

Before turining off the TV and going to sleep, I check the scroll on ESPN2 for the scores.

When I saw the Jays and Angels tied at 1 in the 15th, I immediately hoped Aaron Hill wasn't playing because such a low score had all the makings of a 1-6, 1-7, 1-8 night.

I wish, Hill was 0-6.

If I had had a midle reliver on either team or that night's starting pitcher, then I'd have had the opposite reaction as I'd have likely gotten an inning or two of no ER.

Unless of course I was in one of those runs where everything was going wrong. Then I'd have had the reliever who gave up the one run.

Thursday, July 28, 2005

Yahoo! Sports - MLB - Jeff Francoeur

Yahoo! Sports - MLB - Jeff Francoeur

Where are the bases-on-balls?

Jim Thome

Philadelphia Inquirer | 07/28/2005 | Phillies Notes | Manuel wants move before trade deadline

There is no doubt Ryan Howard is not available in any league worth a can of Morton's Salt, and that is only $0.99!

Howard is going to make Thome a constant trade rumor through next season.

Maybe Baltimore can deal Ponson for him?

New York Post Online Edition: sports

New York Post Online Edition: sports

To quote:
"He (Nats GM Jim Bowden) is the knight in the Black Forrest in the Monty Python movie without any arms or legs challenging someone to fight," an AL executive said."

That kind of wit leads me to think this unnamed AL executive would make an interesting blogger. I don't think he is because he could have easily found out that it is the Black Knight

Mets working hard to get Soriano

Mets working hard to get Soriano

Aaron Heilman is the sticking point????? He went back to his old delivery and has been much more effective. but isn't the fact that the Mets wanted to risk breaking what was not broken (his old delivery) a red flag?

Is is possible the Mets thought Heilman would injure his arm with his older mechanics?

And I am not saying this in order to preserve my desire to be a magnificent prognosticator!

Tuesday, July 26, 2005

New York Post Online Edition: sports

New York Post Online Edition: sports

A few comments after spending this morning surfing the 'net for trade rumors.

Soriano is arbitration-eligible. I had labored under the assumption he was a free agent as have a couple people I have spoke with. The fact that whichever major league club has him controls him for 2006 changes his already-great trade value immensely.

If any team deals a top prospect, it does not have to worry about Soriano walking at this season's-end.

Is he worth Mike Cameron, Lastings Milledge and another top prospect? Maybe not, but he is certainly a rarer commodity than an OF. In another article, sources say Jose Reyes is the one the Rangers opened negotiations with.

And how exactly, is he not a bargain at a $10 million salary for 2006? Shouldn't any writer who opines otherwise be fired for gross incompetence, and his editor be fired for allowing that into the article?

Why does Pittsburgh think they can get Jeremy Hermida or Scott Olson for any of their pitchers not named Oliver Perez? Have the 13-year-olds who play Yahoo! fantasy baseball taken over the front offices of MLB? Did I miss the Acne Revolution on the front pages of the New York Times and Washington Post?

Eric Byrnes is too valuable to part with in Colorado? As if they don't have a couple handfuls of him plaing at a fraction of his salary. The bullshit is deep no argument there!

And finally, would Florida just take AJ Burnett and disappear? There are asking exhorbitant amounts for him. Do they really have to think about Brandon McCarthy and Damaso Marte for him? Don't they get afraid the Chisox will call there bluff and offer only one of them for the free-agent-to-be? I know I would, and I'd send them packing with a couple m*****f*****s to boot.