Saturday, October 31, 2009

Fantasy Baseball 2010: Jay Bruce's Expected ADP

I expect Bruce’s ADP to be well over 100 everywhere except the smartiest of the smart pants expert drafts. Last year, he was a hot play around the 6th and 7th round. This year, no one with a modicum of common sense will fail to penalize him a couple rounds – at least.

The 7th-10th rounds are typically spent getting SP and closers. Putting Bruce after that makes him an 11th rounder – ADP 110-121 in most leagues.

Fantasy Basketball Or Fantasy Football

RotoSynthesis >> Why Fantasy Basketball is Better Than Fantasy Football: "I'm in three football leagues and four basketball leagues this year, and historically, I've always liked fantasy basketball much more, and there are plenty of reasons why:"

Start Sit Made Easier: Ten Worst Run Defenses

Rush RankTeamRYAVsDecision
32Buffalo246.3HOUStart Steve Slaton
31Tampa Bay156BYEStart 0
30NY Jets148.7MIAStart Ronnie Brown
29Cleveland146.3@CHIStart Matt Forte
28Kansas City141.3BYEStart 0
27New England137.3BYEStart 0
26Oakland135.7@SDStart LaDanian Tomlinson
25San Diego133OAKStart Justin Fargas
24Baltimore131.3DENStart Knowshon Moreno
23Tennessee129.3JAXStart Maurice Jones-Drew

Friday, October 30, 2009

Fantasy Basketball Trade Advice

A 12-team keeper league in its 1st year, $200 cap. Would you deal a $1 PG Jonny Flynn for a $10 PF Tyrus Thomas? My experience has shown there are a limited free agent options to address assists while the 12 point/8 rebound/1.5 block big man seems to emerge all the time.

My instinct is to say no. What is yours?

Start Sit Made Easier: Ten Worst Pass Defenses

Pass RankTeamPYAVsDecision
32Tennessee346.7JAXStart Mike Sims-Walker
31Minnesota329@GBStart Greg Jennings
30Cincinnati269.7BYEStart 0
29Seattle265.3@DALStart Miles Austin
27Atlanta256@NOStart Marques Colston
27Kansas City256BYEStart 0
26Baltimore251.3DENStart Brandon Mrshalll
25Cleveland250.3@CHIStart Devan Hester
24St. Louis248.7@DETStart Calvin Johnson
23Jacksonville242.3@TENStart Nate Washington?

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Start/Sit: Andre Johnson

Courtesy of Will Carroll.

Will Carroll's Black & Blue Report at Football Outsiders:

"The pain and shock is the problem here and if [Andre] Johnson heals normally and there is really nothing more here than just the contusion, he should be back for the Texans' next game."

One must note that Stephania Bell of is on the other end of the contiuum.

Start Sit Made Easier: The Top 10 Run Defenses

Rush RankTeamRYAVsDecision
1Houston45@BUFSit Marshawn Lynch
2Arizona55.3CARSit Dangelo Williams
3Seattle59.3@DALSit Tashard Choice_Marion Barber_Felix Jones
4Green Bay66.3MINSit Adrian Peterson
5Pittsburgh72.3BYESit 0
6Denver82.7@BALSit Ray Rice
7Carolina83.7@AZSit Tim Hightower_Beanie Wells
8Philadelphia87NYGSit Ahmad Bradshaw_Brandon Jacobs
9Minnesota95@GBSit Ryan Grant
10Jacksonville97.7@TENSit Chris Johnson

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Start Sit Made Easier: Top 10 Pass Defenses

The one time I leave off the caveat about low passing yards allowed often dependent on crappy run defenses will be the time ESPN will be reviewing my site in preparation of a job offer. I wouldn't consider sitting any of the below WRs with the exception of Michael Crabtree and Bernard Berrian. Even then...
Pass RankTeamPYAVsDecision
1Buffalo68HOUSit Andre Johnson_Kevin Walter
2Carolina119.7@AZSit Larry Fitzgerald_Anquan Boldin
3Washington140BYESit 0
4Green Bay141MINSit Sydney Rice_Bernard Berrian
5Tampa Bay152BYESit 0
6Indianapolis167.3SFSit Michael Crabtree
7NY Giants170.7@PHISit DeSean Jackson
8New Orleans183.3ATLSit Roddy White
9New England187BYESit 0
10Pittsburgh188.7BYESit 0

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Waiver Wire: Fred Davis or Shonne Greene

With the season ending injury to Washington Redskins TE Chris Cooley and the subsequent eight reception game by his back-up Fred Davis, those in need of a quality TE look like they have the opportunity of the season to add a top TE from the free agent pool. The sticky question is whether to use your #1 waiver pick on Davis or on New York Jets' RB Shonne Greene.

As a rule of thumb, the RB goes 1st. However, the TE position has been so disappointing that using the waiver priority on Davis is justifiable. For example, Dustin Keller has proven himself a major bust. Jermichael Finley only remains unbusted becaue Keller has been so awful.

Fantasy Baseball 2010: DH-Only Part II

Yesterday, I noted those DH-only qualifiers who failed to make 20 appearances at any position in 2009. Today, the DH-only qualifiers include those who have made at least 20 appearances at DH and fewer than 20 at any other position. It more of a mixed league sleepers list, but many will go for cheap in single format auction leagues.

The greatest sleeper potential when combined with likely auction price? DH Randy Ruiz of the Toronto Blue Jays.

David Ortiz
Hideki Matsui
Pat Burrell
Mike Jacobs
Jim Thome
Ken Griffey Jr.
Vlad Guerrero
Travis Hafner
Mike Sweeney
Andruw Jones
Randy Ruiz
Nomar Garciaparra

Monday, October 26, 2009

2010 Fantasy Baseball: DH-only

In 20-appearance eligibility leagues, there always exist a subset of players who did not make an appearance at any position at least 20 times. Amongst this group, there exists the dreaded DH-only qualifier thanks to his having appeared as a DH the most.

Before the final two games of the 2009 season, Texas Rangers rookie Julio Borbon was the potential poster child for this rule quirk. Thanks to his starting the last two games in the OF, he reached the 20-appearance threshhold.

That doesn't mean there aren't others whose status as DH-only will hinder there sleeper ability. Or enhance it if you have the open spot.

The list is short and inconsequential in mixed formats and nearly inconsequential in single league formats with the exception of Larrish and, maybe, Cliff Floyd.

1. Jeff Larish
2. Dave Dellucci
3. Joe Dillon
4. Cliff Floyd
5. Eric Munson

Week Eight Waiver Wire

Not a good week. How could it be when teams on the wrong end of an ass-whooping can't even score a meaningless TD to climb into the double digits in points. However, there is one player who has the potential to be a Donald Brown type of player - New York Jets 3rd rounder Shonne Greene.

If I were holding the top waiver for the next big thing, it would be Greene. He doesn't quite slot into the Leon Washington change of pace role, but he is big and fresh. 10-12 touches plus a goaline carry or two means 10 or so points per week.

A situation worth watching is the Oakland Raiders QB. IF JaMarcus Russell is permanently benched, then a WR will emerge who offers the potential to be a Donnie Avery type of producer. Russell is that bad. His replacement will immediately given the Oakland receivers an uptick in value.

RB Shonne Greene, New York Jets
WR Chaz Schillens, Oakland Raiders
QB Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
WR David Clowney, New York Jets

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Week Eight Waiver Wire

On Bye: Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins

WR is the most obvious place to target on the waiver wire as early as possible, but the true alpha play is pre-empting the TE pool. The position has been extremely disappointing with little production available in the pool. With three #1 TEs on bye, those owners will be compelled to start the dregs of the position if you have the ability to grab the top options.

Starters on bye:
QB: Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Cedric Benson, Rashard Mendenhall, Cadillac Williams, Clinton Portis
WR: Chad OchoCinco, Dwayne Bowe, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes
TE: Heath Miller, Kellen Winslow, Chris Cooley

Start or Sit TE Dustin Keller

When there is blood in the streets, that is the best time to invest. Or something like that.

The blood in the street belongs to New York Jets TE Dustin Keller. How do I know whose it is without CSI Miami? I am sitting him in favor of Jermichael Finley in one league and Ben Watson in another.

I do like Watson as a receving option given the Patriots are without WR Julian Edelman and RB Sammie Morris - two of the top five receiving options in New England. Watson looks like he could be filling the checkdown roles of Julian and Sammie.

Start or Sit: Marion Barber, Felix Jones or Tashard Choice

Stephania Bell's Injury Blog:

"Marion Barber and Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys, (P): On Thursday I outlined the issues facing Barber and Jones as they recover from their various ailments. They are both listed as probable after practicing all week but how they'll be utilized, especially with Tashard Choice being the only truly healthy back, remains a bit of a mystery. It would not surprise me to see the Cowboys be most cautious with Jones to see how his knee responds to game conditions (read: hits)."

The gambler in me says Choice is the man.

Week Seven Start Sit

WR Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals; A high ankle sprain typically takes a month or so to heal. SI' Peter King is reporting Boldin looks like he will play. Despite the porven skill of playing through pain, I'd sit Boldin. The risky decision is playing him in spite of an injury proven to keep players out.

RB Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants: When Jacobs left last week's blowout with a stinger, it looked as if Ahmad Bradshaw would have the opportunity for full-time carries and the chance to show he was a 3rd down option, too. While Bradshaw's missed opportunity has inked little attention, even less has been paid to Jacob's stinger.

WR Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers: One of many elite WRs who has disappointed in the year it became consensus to believe taking them early was smart. Jennings has battled a wrist ailment and now a hip one. I'm starting him myself, but, man, I don't feel good about it.

RB Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys: A three-headed monster (Marion Barber, Jones and Tashard Choice) with just one fully healthy back (Choice). No way I start Felix Jones in his 1st week back. Blog: Baseball America Prospects Blog » Blog Archive » Final Minor League Leaderboards: Batting#more-6810 Blog: Baseball America Prospects Blog » Blog Archive » Final Minor League Leaderboards: Batting#more-6810: "Final Minor League Leaderboards: Batting"

Saturday, October 24, 2009

Start Sit Made Easier: Ten Worst Run Defenses

How the mighty have fallen! Look who ranks as 10th worse over the past three games.
Rush RankTeamRYAVsDecision
32Buffalo246.3@CARStart Dangelo Williams_Jonathan Stewart
31Tampa Bay156NEStart Laurence Maroney_Benjarvis Green Ellis
30NY Jets148.7@OAKStart Justin Fargas
29Cleveland146.3GBStart Ryan Grant
28San Diego142.3@KCStart Larry Johnson
27Kansas City141.3SDStart LaDanian Tomlinson
26New England137.3@TBStart Cadillac Williams
25Carolina136.7BUFStart Marshawn Lynch
24Oakland135.7NYJStart Thomas Jones_Leon Washington
23Baltimore131.3BYEStart 0

Friday, October 23, 2009

Will Carroll & Percy Harvin

Will Carroll's Black & Blue Report at Football Outsiders:

"[Percy] Harvin could be out a while with this, or he might get into a cycle where the painkillers allow him to play, but not heal...this isn't something that's unusual in isolation, although it is troubling. As a matter of standard practice, we have to all look at Malcolm Gladwell's comparison of football to dogfighting and wonder just how right he is."

Just A Hunch

Bandied about is the stat that Peyton Manning has thrown for 300+ yards in the Colts 1st six games. With the Rams up next, the commentariet is falling over itself to predict a 7th.

I am not so sure consensus prediction about any individual performance is so easy. Sort of like predicting any one value using the average.

Frank Gore

After watching Glen Coffee completely disappoint as the full time back, I am not putting much faith in the return of Frank Gore. I can't shake the belief that Gore's Week Two explosion, the result of two loooooong runs, was a complete fluke. Coffee's inability to gain more than 4 yards per carry fits with the rest of Gore's production.

Start Sit Made Easier: Ten Worst Pass Defenses

Pass RankTeamPYAVsDecision
32Tennessee346.7BYEStart 0
31Minnesota329@PITStart Hines Ward_Santana Moss
30Arizona288@NYGStart Steve Smith
29Seattle265.3BYEStart 0
28Kansas City256SDStart Vincent Jackson
27Baltimore251.3BYEStart 0
26Cleveland250.3GBStart Greg Jennings
24Atlanta248.7@DALStart Miles Austin_Roy Williams
24St. Louis248.7INDStart Reggie Wayne
23Chicago245.3@CINStart Chad OchoCinco

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Fantasy Football Index

Fantasy Football Index:

"Which struggling star will turn things around the rest of the season?Which struggling star will turn things around the rest of the season?"

Chicago Bears RB Matt Forte and Green Bay Packers WR Greg Jennings are most frequently named. As long as Jennings' wrist injury recovers, I agree with him. I am not so sure on Forte though.

Start Sit Made Easier: Top 10 Run Defenses

Six teams on bye means many of the intitial reactions to one of your players facing a top run defenes are moot. You are likely going to start whoever it takes to field a full roster.

Rush RankTeamRYAVsDecision
1Houston45SFSit Frank Gore
2Indianapolis54.3@STLSit Steven Jackson
3Seattle59.3BYESit 0
4Arizona61.7@NYGSit Ahmad Bradshaw_Brandon Jacobs
5Pittsburgh72.3MINSit Adrian Peterson
6Denver82.7BYESit 0
7Miami84.3NOSit Pierre Thomas
8Dallas87ATLSit Michael Turner
8Chicago87@CINSit Cedric Benson
10Minnesota95@PITSit Rashard Mendenhall

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Start Sit Made Easier: Top 10 Pass Defenses

Remember, teams that cannot stop the run often allow few passing yards. So Carolina Panther Steve Smith still has a chance to score a TD this week.

With six teams on bye, the yards allowed by defenses do not carry as much importance unless you have a couple of dead spots on your reserve i.e. an extra defense or kicker thanks to earlier byes by those players.

If that is the case, avoiding Miami Dolphins like Devone Bess or Cleveland Browns like Mohamed Massaquoi or Washington Redskins, the Redskins don't have a #2WR behind Santana Moss, do they?

New this week are the inclusion of the players who would be effected by a good or bad defense - good ones merit "sit" decisions and bad ones merit "start" decisions. By no means do I consider this my actual recommendation. However, I do think it provides more context and that is usually a good thing, right?

Pass RankTeamPYAVsDecision
1Buffalo68@CARSit Steve Smith
2Washington140PHISit DeSean Jackson
3Tampa Bay152NESit Randy Moss_Wes Welker
4Carolina160.7BUFSit Lee Evans_Terrell Ownes
5New Orleans169@MIASit Ted Ginn Jr_Devone Bess
6NY Giants170.7AZSit Larry Fitzgerald_Anquan Boldin
7Green Bay176.3@CLESit Mohamed Massaquoi
8Philadelphia179.7@WASSit Santana Moss
9New England187@TBSit Antonio Bryant
10Pittsburgh188.7MINSit Sydney Rice_Bernard Berrian

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

2010 Fantasy Basketball Auction Draft Results

Five Tool Tool - The Sports Blog That Loves You Back:

A different fantasy basketbal auction draft strategy and its results. 12 team, 12-man rosters, 1st year keeper, $200.

1 LeBron James, Cle SF $76
5 Kevin Durant, OKC SG $75
51 Lamar Odom, LAL PF $7
62 Tony Parker, SA PG $14
73 Emeka Okafor, Nor C $12
85 Jeff Green, OKC SF $8
117 Spencer Hawes, Sac C $1
120 Michael Beasley, Mia PF $2
121 Chris Andersen, Den C $2
131 Channing Frye, Pho PF $1
135 Tracy McGrady*, Hou SG $1
139 Rudy Fernandez, Por SG $1

2010 Fantasy Basketball Auction Draft Results

12-team 1st year keeper, 12 rounds, $200, 8 categories

NominatedSalary $Player
452Al Jefferson
2140Brandon Roy
2921Brook Lopez
3514Al Harrington
5021Derrick Rose
5416Monta Ellis
7911Jameer Nelson
837Blake Griffin
895Tyson Chandler*
9410Jason Richardson
1052Wilson Chandler
1241Jonny Flynn

Monday, October 19, 2009

Waiver Wire

With 18 teams having their bye over the next three weeks, many a fantasy team will start at least PBR player who will be expected to score fewer than 5 points. With that in mind, take a look at Tennessee Titan rookie RB Jacob Ringer.

With the Titan's season over and Lendale White hurt, expect to see Jeff Fisher and company try to determine what the team has in the 2nd rounder. Think 30 yards and a goalline TD.

A New RB2

The new RB2 is an old RB1. Chicago Bears RB Matt Forte should no longer be treated at the Top 5 player he was per pre-season ADP. Watching last night's game, I couldn't believe this was the same player the team had last season.

I am going to blame it on a poor offensive line which was unable to keep its QB standing in the final two minutes despite a three-man rush.

Personally, I consider Forte in the same class as Ahmad Bradshaw - an RB2/Flex play every week. In one case, I have him behind Cedric Benson and Ray Rice.

Sell as high if you can get RB1 value.

Waiver Wire Pick-Ups

TE Jermichael Finely, Green Bay Packers
WR Dennis Northcutt, Detroit Lions
WR Mohamed Massaquoi, Cleveland Browns
TE Visenthe Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings
WR Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants
WR Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints
RB Mike Bell, New Orleans Saints
RB Justin Fargas, Oakland Raiders

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Week Seven Waiver Wire

Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, Seattle Seahawks, Jacksonville Jaguars, Baltimore Ravens

Weeks Seven, Eight and Nine have six teams on bye per week. Get ready to grab players off waivers ahead of your competition and to grab players who were cut by those same competitors who try to start a full roster.

On Bye:
QB: Matt Hasselback, Joe Flacco, David Garrard, Kyle Orton
RB: Knowshon Moreno, Kevin Smith, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice
WR: Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Nate Burrelson, Mike Sims-Walker
TE: John Carlson, Todd Heap
DST: Denver, Baltimore

Is Ahmad Bradshaw A PPR Viable RB?

Coming into the season, the expert community assumed Bradshaw would get the receptions departed RB Derrick Ward received in 2008 (41). Instead, he has just six through the Giants' 1st five games.

While this stat already surpasses the five balls he caught in 2008, it is still on pace for 18 catches on the season. A total that is decidedly un-PPR favorable.

Like Tony Romo last week, is this the week you give-up on Bradshaw as a 2-3 receptions per week option?

Week Six Start/Sit

WR Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions: Sit. The Lions have a bye next week, and Johnson has multiple leg injuries - at least if news reports can be trusted in this age of team deception.

RB Marion Barber III, Dallas Cowboys: I've already stated I think Barber's days as a legitimate fantasy RB are over. Since I don't own him in a single league, I can easily advise to sit him. However, I recognize providing advice with no skin in the game is easy. Treat Barber as you would a back who splits carries and is on the less favorable side. Tashard Choice is the #1 fantasy RB is Dallas now.

RB Pierre Thomas, New orleans Saints: After a couple weeks of ultra super deluxe expert fantasy hype, news comes out 3/4s the way through the bye period that Thomas is dealing with a hamstring injury. Going against an untested New York Giants defense makes Thomas an OK start without this news. Barring a great alternative, start him and act as if it is Week one and no one in the Saints backfield was injured.

RB Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers: Way to mess up fantasy football line-ups. Mendenhall has been so good that even a healthy Willie Parker shouldn't make him worse than a 12-15 touch RB. Start Mendenhall if you must. I'm going nowhere near Willie Parker though.

Wr Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets: Cold and rainy in New York signals Cotchery will be limited by his hamstring strain. Sit him.


Ray Rice at Minnesota (6th in Rushing Yards Allowed over its past three games), Pierre Thomas against the New York Giants (2nd in RYA) or Steve Slaton at Cincinnati (19th)?

I am leaning towards Slaton in this 10-team, non-PPR. Do you agree?

Stephania Bell On Pierre Thomas

Running back situations unclear for Steelers, Saints and Broncos - ESPN:

"Pierre Thomas, who has put up great fantasy numbers while Bell has been absent, surprised everyone by being limited in practice this week with a hamstring ailment. Coach Sean Payton indicated that this was not a new injury for Thomas but rather something lingering that he had been dealing with for some time. It certainly sounds as if the Saints were proactively limiting Thomas to ensure that he did not suffer a setback during practice that would threaten his availability for Week 6."

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Sit #1 WRs Against the Cincinnati Bengals? Andre Johnson

The Houston Texans take their Miami Dolphins circa early 90s offense into Paul Brown Stadium this week. Given how poorly teams' #1 wide receivers have fared against the Bengals, ther eis some concern abouting Andre Johnson's expected production along with the idea that Kevin Walter is a safer play as AJ will be shut down as a #1.

Here are the five wide receviers who are #1s on the Bengals' 1st five opponents along with possible mitigating factors to consider.

1DenverBrandon MarshallMarshall suspension
2PittsburghHines WardSantonio Holmes teased in Week One
3Green BayGreg JenningsHiding wrist injury/awful O-line
4ClevelandBraylon EdwardsNone
5BaltimoreDerrick MasonNone

Answer: Redefine #1 WR and ignore other factors.

Ten Worst Run Defenses

Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Brian Westbrook. Knowshon Moreno.

Those are the RBs who match-up against the worst rushing yards allowed defenses over the past three games. More notable, though, is the presence of the Rex Ryan-led New York Jets. Am I the only one who sees the Jets defense as more over-hyped than Brett Favre on ESPN?

Rush RankTeamRYAVs
31Tampa Bay189.7CAR
29San Diego152DEN
26NY Jets143.7BUF
23Green Bay121DET

Friday, October 16, 2009

Calvin Johnson Injury Status

Will Carroll's Black And Blue Report at Football Outsiders:

"Johnson's knee is thought to be the problem, though the team didn't crutch or brace him after the injury -- he was seen on the sidelines with ice -- and Johnson's initial reaction was to grab higher on the leg, near his groin. Still, Adam Schefter is dialed in and has consistently called this a sprained knee. Even a mild strain is going to keep Johnson on the sidelines at least a week."

If you're going to be away from the computer on Sunday, sit Calvin Johnson. The bye week isn't harsh on WRs, so you should have a decent option to start. Better safe than learning Sunday afternoon that Megatron sat.

10 Worst Pass Defenses

Matt Hasselback? Check. Brett Favre? Check. David Garrard against the Baltimore Ravens? Che....

Pass RankTeamPYAVs
29New England255.7TEN

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Marion Barber

The local Dallas paper is reporting Barber is still hurt and provides a time frame that equates to essentially the remainder of the fantasy season. Grab Tashard Choice come hook or crook.

I wonder if Barber will ever be more than the #2 or 3 again.

Waiver Wire Indianapolis Colts WR

When Indianapolis Colts' WR Regge Wayne was having 1,000+ yard receving years behind Marvin Harrison, he established the expected value of Colts' #2 WR. As a result, fantasy teams are trying to grab the new #2. That led to Anthony Gonzalez becoming a 4th/5th rounder in 2010 drafts despite producing like weekly free agent claim in his 1st two seasons.

When he was injured, the lofty expectations of a Colts #2 passed to Pierre Garcon who proceeded to be all hype. While attention was focused on Garcon, BYU alum Austin Collie has quietly become the more valuable receiver with considerable PPR production over the last two games.

Unfortunately, Gonzalez is expected to return in Week Seven following the Colts bye on Sunday. Despite the production expectations set by Wayne, I wouldn't expect any Colts #2WR to meet them. There just isn't enough difference between the three. nevermind, TE Dallas Clark is taking a signifcant portion of that #2WR production from the TE position.

Top 10 Rush Defenses

Sitting Pierre Thomas against the Giants? Probably not.

Sitting Tim Hightower or Beanie Wells against the Seahawks? With such a weak bye week, is you team struggling at RB that you start either anyhow?

Sitting Jermaine Lewis against the Steelers? See previous paragraph.

Rush RankTeamRYAVs
2NY Giants64.3@NO
10New England92.3TEN

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Who Would You Trade/Prefer?

While the WR pool was considered shallow at draft time, the regular season has produced some legitimate top 24 receivers. Notably, Jacksonvill Jaguar Mike Sims-Walker, Denver Bronco Brandon Marshall, New York Giant Steve Smith and Seattle Seahawk Nate Burleson.

As a result, the aggressive fantasy football owner is likely looking at four or five Top 24 WRs on his or her roster. The decision to trade from that new found strength is easy. The tougher question is who to deal.

The simple answer is whoever gets the most in return. That means the WR1 and WR2 you drafted in the 1st through 3rd rounds. For me, that WR is New Orleans Saint Marquis Colston. (I already dealt Carolina Panther Steve Smith for Cincinnati Bengal RB Cedric Benson.)

So who would you want - Colston, Sims-Walker or Marshall if I offered you one?

Which WR do you prefer to receive in a trade?

Top 10 Pass Defenses

So, the New York Giants sit atop the passing yards allowed charts over its past three games. Do you believe and will sit any of the New Orleans Saints passing game or does this stat lie thanks to the Giants' pass three opponents being the Tamapa Bay Buccaneers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Oakland Raiders?

The Buffalo Bills have not allowed more than 100 passing yards over its past three games after allowing 368 and 296 in its 1st two games. Was Albus Dumbledore risen from the dead to transform the team's pass defense? No. As is often the case with passing defense stats, it is an inability to stop the run that sits at the bottom of the Bills passing numbers.

With just one QB1 on bye this week, their shouldn't be too many teams worrying about stout pass defenses stopping their QB options. As for WRs, San Diego's Vincent Jackson may disappoint against the proven Denver Broncos pass defense. The Saints' receiving corps leaves a kernel of doubt, too.

Pass RankTeamPYAVs
1NY Giants70@NO
6Tampa Bay181CAR
8NY Jets203.7BUF

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Who Would You Rather Have: Derek Jeter or Jose Reyes

Who Would You Rather Have: Derek Jeter or Troy Tulowitzki? - FakeTeams

I'd take Tulowitzki over Jeter. But I am wondering about when to take the plunge on Reyes. Isn't Jeter a safer pick?

Do You Believe

WR Braylon Edwards caught 5 balls for 64 yards and a TD with Jerricho Cotchrey acting as a de facto decoy thanks to a hamstring issue.

Is Edwards the player he was in 2007 or 2008?

Waiver Wire And Calvin Johnson

With the Detroit Lions on bye in Week Seven, I expect the Detroit Lions to sit their franchise WR Calvin Johnson to allow him almost three full weeks to heal.  As a result, adding a WR from the waiver wire now is the smart move rather than worry about Johnson's Week Six status and then scamble on Friday for the "best" free agent WRs.

Waiver Wire Choice

WR Donnie Avery or WR Jeremy Maclin?

My choice is Avery. He is the #1 on a bad team.

Maclin is one of several options for a QB who has shown no favoritism.

Monday, October 12, 2009

MLB Trade Rumors: Albert Pujols to Become a Free Agent? - FakeTeams

MLB Trade Rumors: Albert Pujols to Become a Free Agent? - FakeTeams

Head over to my old haunt to read more. Is it my old haunt if I still lurk there and comment or is it my current haunt?

Week Six Waiver Wire Pick-Ups

Despite the presence of Dallas Cowboys' WR Miles Austin at the numerically order list, the names are not in order of preference. Why?

Starting this week, you will start to see familiar names who may have earned a trip back to the pool after disappointing starts, stretches of unproductiveness, and/or due to bye week decisions.

The brightest names amongst these is Denver Broncos WR Eddie Royal who was a consensus 5th rounder amongst the expert community. After four weeks of crap, he was next on the list of Cut Bait right after Oakland Raiders' RB Darren McFadden. 10 receptions rekindles his PPR value.

If you aren't already, be on the lookout for players like these. I know I waived TE Greg Olson to get an active TE after the byes for RB Pierre Thomas, WR Vincent Jackson, WR Greg Jennings left me too few bench players to waive when adding free agent players. FWIW, my unwaivables on the bench are QB Eli Manning, RB Ray Rice and RB Donald Brown.

1. WR Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys
2. QB Josh Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. WR Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams
4. WR Hakeen Nicks, New York Giants
5. WR Chris Henry, Cincinnati Bengals
6. RB Sammie Morris, New England Patriots
7. WR Eddie Royal, Denver Broncos
8. RB Edgerrin James, Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Week Six Waiver Wire

On bye: Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers

QB Peyton Manning
RB Marion Barber III, Joseph Addai/Donald Brown, Ronnie Brown, Frank Gore/Glen Coffee
WR Reggie Wayne
TE Dallas Clark, Vernon Davis, Jason Witten

There doesn't appear to be much of an opportunity to preempt the other teams in your leagues.

If Cedric Benson Was A Baseball Player

Fantasy Football, Baseball and Basketball - news, projections, rankings, draft guide -

"We've never seen Benson look as fast as he did on his 28-yard touchdown explosion in the second quarter. He also became the first back to go for 100 rushing yards against the Ravens in 40 games"

That line immediately made me think, "Steroids!"

MLB Trade Rumors: Los Angeles Angels

Baseball Prospectus | On the Beat: Post-season Weekend Update:

"Figgins isn't the only key Angels player likely to leave as a free agent, as right-hander John Lackey's price tag figures to be too much for their taste. The Rangers and Mets are expected to make serious bids"

Will You Quit On

...QB Tony Romo if he doesn't have a good game against the woeful Kansas City Chiefs?

If you are on the fence, start pursuing a 2nd option now. I grabbed Carson Palmer a couple weeks ago.

Who? Donovan McNabb? Matt Hasselback? Mark Sanchez?

If you grabbed a Mike Sims-Walker type from the pool, you probably have something to trade. Cash some depth in.

Week Five Start/Sit

Eli Manning, New York Giants: Looks like he will start. Be warned he could easily be pulled once the game gets out of hand. For that reason, I'd sit him.

Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets: Cotchery looks like he will miss Monday's game against the Miami Dolphins. After injuring his hamstring on Thursday, he did not practice Friday or Saturday. Sit.

Braylon Edwards, New York Jets: Cotchery's injury increases the excitement level of Edwards' first game as a New York Jet. Maybe. maybe not. How do #2s fare when the #1 gets hurt?

Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals: Last season, Benson gained 17 yards against the Ravens. Unless the bye week has decimated your RB options, sit Benson.

Mohamed Massaquoi, Cleveland Browns: The Bills pass defense is ranked in the top 10 over the past three weeks. Unfortunately, that was a result of a Bill's rush defense that has yielded more than 200 yards in each of the past two games. Start him if you got him.

Start Marion Barber Sit Tashard Choice?

All reports say Marion Barber III is going full steam.  As a result, he is a must start against a poor Kansas City Chiefs defenses.
His back-up, Tashard Choice remains a viable option, too.  As mentioned, the Chiefs defense is poor.  Based on this alone, Choice should be good for 50 yards.
If Barber pulls up lame, as he did last week, then Choice could easily double that total.  With the byes, Choice is an excellent option for teams who do not have an easy RB2 to play.

Joseph Addai And Others By Stephania Bell

Donovan McNabb, Matt Hasselbeck return under center - ESPN:

"Addai appeared on the Thursday practice injury report with a hand injury, although the specifics of the problem are unknown. Addai practiced fully Friday, yet the Colts have him listed as questionable, suggesting there is some concern about his hand heading into Sunday."

Will this be the week the Tennessee Titans draw from their excellent rush defense to begin stopping the pass more effectively? If so, then rookie Donald Brown could have his best game so far.

Oh yeah, I'd sit Addai if I wasn't privy to the active list i.e. at church, a family event, apple picking et al.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

How Far BJ Upton

Last season's trendy 2nd rounder will fall into the 4th or 5th round. Without a rebound in AVG, he will still be over drafted there.

Fantasy Baseball 2010 How Far Does BJ Upton Fall

Last season's trendy 2nd rounder will fall into the 4th or 5th round. If his AVG does not rebound, he will be over drafted. Again.

Do You Believe the Denver defense enough to bench Tom Brady and or Randy Moss?

Not me. One can easily argue the Broncos are yet to face a good team.

10 Worst Run Defenses

Rush RankTeamRYAVs
32Tampa Bay189.7@PHI
26San Diego152BYE

Friday, October 09, 2009

Black And Blue Report: Eli Manning

Will Carroll's Black & Blue Report at Football Outsiders:

"While we all know the 'any given Sunday' mantra of the NFL, facing the Raiders with an injury to Manning at least has to make the Giants think 'we could get away with David Carr, couldn't we?' Eli Manning is ranked fifth overall by DYAR (second among Mannings)."

Not much new on the injury, but the high ranking of Eli by FO is notable. Gives the start/sit decision between Kurt Warner and the younger Manning brother a little more consideration.

10 Worst Pass Defenses

Pass RankTeamPYAVs

Thursday, October 08, 2009

Fantasy Baseball 2010: Where To Take The Injured

A healthy spring can change some of these.


SS Jose Reyes - mid-2nd round at latest
OF Grady Sizemore - 3rd/4th round. Next year's Chase Utley?
OF Josh Hamilton - no sooner than the 7th. Likely much later.
SP Brandon Webb - 10th round?

Top 10 Best Rush Defenses

Unlike the pass pass defenses, a good run defense typically merits a serious start/sit decision. This week, Cedric Benson takes his Baltimore match-up to the bench.

A trickier sit decision is RB Kevin Smith against a very stout Pittsburgh run defense. The difference between Smith and Benson is receiving. Smith is the 2nd option in the Lions' passing game whereas Benson is not. (Smith 2nd in receptions with 16. Benson has six and four of those came in Week One.)

The New York Jets face a surprisingly effective Miami rush defense. Sitting Thomas Jones is an easy decision at this point. He turned into a pumpkin. The only question is whether he'd do fantasy players a favor and get hurt so Shonn Greene can take over instead of splitting carries with him.

Rush RankTeamRYAVs
6San Francisco85ATL
10New England97@DEN

Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Start or Sit Eli Manning

Sit Eli Manning barring having your start on bye this week. Start Brandon jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw as the New York Giants should be expected to run more frequently against the attrocious Raiders rush defense.

This game also offers the an opportunity to rest Eli's foot. The team doesn't have a bye until Week 10.

Braylon Edwards Losers

The New York Jets acquired Cleveland Browns WR Braylon Edwards for WR Chansi Stuckey, a special teamer and a 3rd and 5th round pick.  Is this a Randy Moss of a 4th rounder or Roy Williams for a 1st, 3rd. 6th and 7th rounder?
The later is my inclination.  The losers in this deal are Braylon Edwards owners who start Edwards in hopes of an immediate benefit and Dustin Keller owners, who were already disappointed in the 2nd year TE's inability to breakout as a checkdown option for a much hyped rookie QB.

Fantasy Baseball 2010: Who 1st?

Arizona Diamondbacks 3B Mark Reynolds taken in the 2nd round or Philadelphia Phillies OF Jayson Werth in the 5th round. Which would you rather have?

Top 10 Pass Defenses

Going forward, the best and worst rushing and passing defenses will be based on a rolling three game average. This method is unique to Fantasy Alpha. if you see others copying it, I'd appreciate a head's up.

When assessing start/sit decisions based on the top pass defenses, one must remember teams that can't stop the run aften rank amongst the stingiest passing defenses. The structure of the NFL makes that so. There are just 60 minutes of clock and rushing the ball keeps the clock moving.

Amongst the legimate sit decisions to be made with this data, Tom Brady going against the Denver defense causes hesitition, but there is no one with the guts to sit Brady.

The one legitimate possible sit would be Atlanta Falcons' QB Matt Ryan. I'd hesitate sitting a Top 10 QB coming off a bye week, but the 49ers look like a legitmately good defensive club, and they are at home.

Pass RankTeamPYAVs
1NY Giants91OAK
7Tampa Bay181@PHI
9NY Jets188.3@MIA
10San Francisco194ATL

Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Fantasy Baseball 2010 Do You Believe

Toronto Blue Jays 2B Aaron Hill and his 36 HRs.

Fantasy Baseball 2010

A quick glance makes 1B look very deep, and high K SP looks much deeper than usual. SS is ugly even if you assume Jose Reyes makes it back to elite fantasy production.

Monday, October 05, 2009

Bloggers Must Disclose Payment

U.S. Seeks to Restrict Gifts Made to Bloggers -

For whatever it is worth, no opinions experessed at Fantasy Alpha are anything but my own. There has been no financial consideration provided by anyone mentioned.

Like the paid fantasy industry would have sent cash my way for calling it an oligarchy where the big boys freely take content and make it their own!

Fantasy Baseball 2010 Do You Believe

Tampa Bay Rays SS Jason Bartlett as a half price Derek Jeter with full production.

Fantasy Baseball 2010: Do You Believe

The Chicago White Sox OF Scott Podsednick had a tremendous comeback season in 2009. Do you believe a .290ish 2010 with a handful of HRs and 30 SBs is likely?

Week Five Waiver Wire Pickups

The further we get into the season, the fewer the opportunities to pluck quality players from the waiver wire. "Quality" typically means a FLEX option. Often, a WR2 or RB2 emerges.

What also becomes apparent, it the names become more familar as we see them week after week.

WR Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans
QB Matt Stafford, Detroit Lions
QB Josh Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WR Nate Washington, Tennessee Titans
RB Ryan Moats, Houston Texans
RB Justin Fargas, Oakland Raiders
WR Mohamed Massaquoi, Cleveland Browns
RB Jerome Harrison, Cleveland Browns
RB Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, October 04, 2009

Week Five #Waiver Wire

Byes: Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, San Diego Chargers

QB1: Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers
RB1: Matt Forte, Ryan Grant, Pierre Thomas, LaDanian Tomlinson
WR1: Greg Jennings, Marques Colston, Vincent Jackson
TE: Greg Olson, Jeremy Shockey, Antonio Gates
FLX: Donald Driver, Darren Sproles

Making preemptive claims on QBs and RBs looks like the alpha producing decision.

What Is NYG Steve Smith Worth

More than the Carolina Steve Smith. Mid 2nd round.

Start Sit Match Ups

WR Andre Johnson against Nnamdi or Santana Moss against Tampa Bay.

WR Marques Colston against Revis or Brandon Marshall against a bad Dallas Cowboy pass defense.

Week Four Almost Last Minute

RB Marion Barber III, Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys' owner Jerry Jones says MBII is playing, and MBII has backed-up that Slept-At-A-Holiday-Inn medical opinion by practicing fully by week's end. My sense is Tashard Choice remains a safer start.

RB Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions: Earlier this week, a ESPN's Football Today related a story about Jim Schwartz when he was the defensive coordinator in Tennessee. He said he would never publicly state a player was hurt because it gave the opposing team too much of an edge. Smith has practiced lightly so I suspect he is really out.

WR Wes Welker, New England Patriots: We have become so accustomed to teams lying and saying their players are hurt when they aren't. In this case, I suspect Welker is seriously hurt and the team won't IR him. Sit until he has played.

RB Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers: A great match-up against the Krispy Kreme run defenses of the San Diego Chargers screams, "Start!"

RB Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins: His match-up is one of the best in Week Four. Without knowing his active status, I'd start Ladell Betts.

Start/Sit Marion Barber Or Tashard Choice

Chargers' LaDainian Tomlinson looks ready to go - ESPN:

"It's worth noting that the Dallas Morning News reported Saturday that running back Chauncey Washington is being activated from the practice squad. The move suggests that the team wants insurance in case there are any issues with Barber's return and may signal that they don't intend for Barber to play the entire game."

At my Flex, I have the choice of Ahmad Bradshaw, Tashard Choice or Ray Rice. Cedric Benson and Matt Forte are my RB1 and RB2.

Saturday, October 03, 2009

The New York Sports Scene

The New York Sports Scene: "Fantasy Football Preview: Week 4"

Hitting every game for those still unsure about what to do.

Black and Blue Report

Will Carroll's Black and Blue Report:

"There's word from Pittsburgh that Willie Parker has turf toe. No word on the severity, but you'd better have Rashard Mendenhall paired with Parker right now"

Personally, I'd gamble on Mewelde Moore, but that can be a mistake of past performance equals future results.

Worst Rush Defenses Start/Sit

The easy starts against this week's worst rushing yards allowed defenses - Darren McFadden, Clinton Portis or Ladell Betts, Cedric Benson and Chris Johnson with a dose of Lendale White.

Rush RankTeamRYAVs
31Tampa Bay187.3@WAS

Friday, October 02, 2009

What Is Darren McFadden Worth?

In a non-PPR, I traded Oakland Raiders RB Darren McFadden for Tampa Bay Bucanneers TE Kellen Winslow and Cincinnati Bengals QB Carson Palmer. I have several RBs of McFadden's ilk (Knowshown Moreno, Ahmad Bradshaw, Glen Coffee, Donald Brown) and others with upside (James Davis, Ladell Betts, Jamaal Charles). Additionally, I did not draft a 2nd QB and had Visenthe Shiancoe at TE.

Did I sell high, sell low or get the value just right?

Against The Numbers

RB Pierre Thomas against New York Jets.

Worst Pass Defenses Start/Sit

Thanks to the bye weeks, I am going to be starting Mike Sims-Walker against the Tennessee Titans pass defense. Despite the first three games, I am still having a hard time believing the Titans can be so bad against the pass.

As for the other start decisions, Lee Evans and Terrell Owens need to have big games against the same team the Colts and Chargers torched through the air. The bye weeks offer the perfect scenario to get both in.

Pass RankTeamPYAVs

Thursday, October 01, 2009

What Is Cedric Benson Worth?

I just traded Carolina Panthers WR Steve Smith for Cincinnati Bengals Rb Cedric Benson. Smith was a 2nd round selection and places the ex-Bear solidly in that area of value.

Hey, wasn't RB Thomas Jones a flop RB in Chicago?

Sleeper Waiver Claim

Washington Redskins RB Ladell Betts

Top Pass Defenses - Start/Sit

A very interesting week for a few of the top QBs this season. Drew Brees faces the Jets in a game I expect to be the coming out party for the winner. Joe Flacco faces a much improved Patriots pass defense, and Aaron Rodgers goes into Minnesota for a Brett Favre reunion game on MNF.

More interesting will be the Denver Broncos' 2nd ranked passing defense. Combined with the team's 7th ranked rush defense, QB Tony Romo and RB Tashard Choice/Marion Barber look like sits.

Pass RankTeamPYAVs
1NY Giants124@KC
5NY Jets173.3@NO
6New England174BAL