Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Sneaky Waiver Wire Buy Low Candidate

With the exit of QB Chad Pennington, the Miami Dolphins turn to 2nd year QB Chad Henne. Is this what WR Ted Ginn, Jr. needs to take advantage of his one true skill, speed?

I recall the change the New York Jets had when they went from Vinny Testaverde to Chad Pennington. Vinny was no longer capable of the deep pass. When Chad entered, all of a sudden the field opened.

Could the same thing happen in Miami? Possibly.

If so QB Chad Henne becomes an interesting waiver claim, and Ted Ginn, Jr is a good buy low candidate.

Top Rush Defenses - Start/Sit

Not too many difficult start/sit decisions based on these match-ups. Maurice Jones-Drew and Steven Jackson were drafted so high that sitting them isn't typically a match-up based call.

I would consider sitting Fred Jackson as the Dolphins do stop the run and Marshawn lynch returns to siphon off some of the touches.

Rush RankTeamRYAVs
4San Francisco66.7STL
5New Orleans69NYJ

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Sneaky Waiver Wire Buy Low Candidates

With the St. Louis Rams freed from the inability of Marc Bulger to be a starting NFL QB, the wide receiving core has a QB who can throw the deep ball. Combined with the onset of bye weeks, look for Keenan Burton and Donnie Avery to have some value on the basis of the deep threat.

Follow Up On Week Three Waiver Claims

Two weeks, two 50% hit rates. Does that make chasing the week's surprise efforts a waste of time?

Week TwoWeek Three PerformanceGood Pick Up
WR Bobby Wade Kansas City Chiefs13 yards TDYes
WR Julian Edelman New England Patriots25 yardsNo
WR Laurent Robinson St. Louis Rams26 yardsNo
WR Mike Sims-Walker Jacksonville Jaguars81 yardsYes
WR Johnnie Knox Chicago Bears7 yards TDYes
RB Willis McGahee Baltimore Ravens67 yards 2 TDYes
TE Jermichael Finley Green Bay Packers0 yardsNo
RB Justin Forsett Seattle Seahawks4 yardsNo
RB Correll Buckhalter Denver Broncos108 yardsYes
WR Jabar Gaffney Denver Broncos39 yardsNo
RB Jason Snelling Atlanta Falcons44 yardsNo

Monday, September 28, 2009

Nate Silver becomes the Joe Morgan of Politics - Neil_Stevens’s blog - RedState

Nate Silver becomes the Joe Morgan of Politics - Neil_Stevens’s blog - RedState:

"Nate Silver knows better. He’s not the Joe Morgan of politics. He’s more like Joe’s old teammate Pete Rose here. Rose was great as a player, and a fraud as a manager, while Silver was great as a baseball analyst and has now become a fraud as a political analyst"

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off-topic, but I've always been uncomfortable about Silver's political celebrity to the detriment of the BP coverage.

Would You Trade

You have Matt Schaub. You are offered Tom Brady - if you include Derek Mason.

Do you make the trade?

NL Rookie of the Year

NL Rookie of the Year? - FakeTeams:

"This has been a fairly crazy year for rookies in the is a list of 2009 NL rookies."

Click through to vote. My choice boils down to Philadelphia Phillies SP J.A. Happ or Atlanta Braves SP Tommy Hanson - two players on the Most Likely To Be Over-Drafted In 2010 list.

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Week Four #Waiver Wire

The following teams have a bye next week: Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles, Arizona Cardinals, and Carolina Panthers. By my count there are four RB2 or better running backs out, three QB1s, five WR2 or better WRs and two TEs. Nevermind the 2 or 3 K and a DST.

Agressive waiver claims now become an important strategy.

Week Three Start/Sit Non-Injured

Assume you already have a legitimate #2 RB or WR. In leagues with a Flex, you may be compelled to start any of the below thanks to match-ups, injuries and/or league depth.

Cleveland Browns RBs Jerome Harrison and James Davis: Sit. Can't see the clear #1 here. Nopr does it matter given each faces the Baltimore Ravens defense.

Indianapolis Colts RB Donald Brown: Sit. He is not a legit #2 yet, and the Arizona Cardinals rush defense has been very good so far.

Buffalo Bills WR Lee Evans: Start maybe. He has the chance to have the 4 catches, 100+ yards we have come to expect form Evans twice a year. The Saints/Bills should be a shootout.

Seattle Seahawks RBs Julius Jones and Justin Forsett: Sit. Who is the lead back? For a team as bad as the Seahawks, you want no part of a timeshare. Once the Bye Weeks begin though....

Washington Redskins WR Santana Moss: Start maybe. See Lee Evans. If you #2 WR was taken around the 2.12/3.01 turn, Moss is not an option at WR2.

Listening To Fantasy Freaks

Over at FoxSports Radio, the Fantasy Freaks are opining, answering texts and Tweets.

Week Three Start/Sit : Westbrook, Welker, Barber

For those who can't sit at their PC until the active rosters are submitted, here are start/sit decisions for some of the most worrisome players.

Philadelphia Eagles RB Brian Westbrook: Sit. The weather is going to be a factor. On a wet field, Westbrook isn't worth the risk. I am glad I never had the chance to draft him in the 2nd round.

Dallas Cowboys RB Marion Barber III: Sit. With two excellent RBs available to step in, I wouldn't risk an ineffective Monday night effort even if MBIII was active.

Denver Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno: Sit. He is still not 100%. Until the Bye Weeks begin, you should still have a 60-80 eYd RB to start who isn't hurt.

New England Patriots WR Wes Welker: Start if. Rainy weather in New England says to start Welker if he is active. The knee must be OK to risky him on the wet field.

New Orleans Saints RB Pierre Thomas: Sit. See my start/sit post from this AM.

Expert Injury Analysis Links

In addition to referring to the Twitter feeds on the left, here are the links to Will Carroll's Black and Blue Report and Stephania Bell's Injury Blog.

Personally, I use Will's Twitter feed along with the one from Adam Schefter for last minute news.

Top Waiver Wire Pick-Ups Week Four

The waiver wire pick-ups after Week Three's action are not in any particular order with the exception of the top one. Glen "Like The Drink But Spelled The Same" Coffee is a must add in all formats. Just be cautious. The 49ers' #1 RB has had putrid efforts in 2/3rds of the teams games.

FWIW, the bye weeks begin in Week Four. For most teams, a 60 yard player is a viable starting option.

RB Glen Coffee, San Francisco 49ers
WR Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans
WR Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars
WR Bryant Johnson, Detroit Lions
RB Maurice Morris, Detroit Lions
TE Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
WR Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings
QB Kyle Boller, St. Louis Rams
RB Jerome Harrison, Cleveland Browns
RB James Davis, Cleveland Browns
DST Denver Broncos

Week Three Start/Sit Pierre Thomas

Looking at a choice between New Orleans Saints RB Pierre Thomas, New York Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw and Washington Redskins WR Santana Moss at my Flex.

I am leaning towards Bradshaw against a horrible Buccaneers defense.

Thomas worries me a little with all the talk of Lynell Hamilton and a concern about the knee.

Moss is intriguing as he gets a bad Lions team on turf. Looks like the typical 1 in 5 Moss explosion.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Start/Sit Week Three

At Flex in a PPR, Jacksonville Jaguars WR Michale Sims-Walker or New York Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw?

Sims-Walker faces a bottom 10 Houston Texans' passing yards allowed defense, but a league worst rushing yards allowed defense. Bradshaw faces a putrid Tampa Bay Bucanneers defense that cannot stop the pass or the run, but splits time with Brandon Jacobs.

Matt Forte Or Michael Turner

In a PPR league, the choice of Chicago Bears RB Matt Forte over Atlanta Falcons RB Michael Turner appeared to be a no-brainer decision. Forte has 63 receptions and the equivalent of 2,345 yards. Turner had the equivalent of 1,800 yards thanks to a mere six receptions. Where Turner enters the debate is his 18 TDs versus Forte's 12.

After the 1st two weeks of the season, this decision doesn't appear as obvious. Forte has yet to score a TD despite 167 equivalent yards (eYd) while Turner has a 100+ yard rushing game with a TD to 185 eYd.

Would you deal Forte for Turner if you could? Despite mounting pressure to do so, I would still prefer Matt Forte.

The addition of TE Tony Gonzalez along with a year of development looks to have caused an exponential leap in the passing game of Atlanta. Forte's five reception Week Two better represents his 2009 than the zero reception Week One that spooked the entire expert community into disregarding six months of off-season rankings.

The Worst Rush Defenses

Week Three may as well be called RB Breakout Week. Other than the New York Giants rush defense, I believe these teams are going to be bad all season.

Rush RankTeamRYAVs
26Tampa Bay168NYG
26NY Giants168@TB

Friday, September 25, 2009

Do You Believe?

Ted Ginn Jr caught 11 passes last week. Good start against San Diego?

Fantasy Football: Marion Barber III Start/Sit

From Will Carroll's Black and Blue Report:

"The churning legs necessary for acceleration and power running are precisely what is strained here, forcing Barber to the sidelines for at least a week. Barber hasn't been a quick healer in the past, so we'll have to keep a close eye on this one for signs that he'll be ready to produce. The Cowboys aren't ruling him out, but given their solid options in Tashard Choice and Felix Jones, resting him in Week 3 makes sense."

This sums up where fantasy footballers are stuck. Dallas Cowboys' RB Marion Barber has a quad injury but seems determined to play, but expert opinion leans towards sitting him given the team's excellent alternatives regardless of reports out of camp.

I went 15% of my FAAB to add Tashard Choice and drop Peyton Hillis on the chance Barber is out, and we have definitive information that Barber will not play.

Fantasy Football: The Worst Pass Defenses

A question. Would you start Mark Sanchez and sit Matt Ryan based on this information?

Pass RankTeamPYAVs
28New Orleans288@BUF
27Tampa Bay282NYG

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Fantasy Football: Buy Low Candidates

Fantasy Football Index: "Definitely Pierre Thomas.Definitely Pierre Thomas."

I highlighted the one player who I think is a real buy low player. Or at least one whose perceived value has dropped considerably. I suggest you click through to see the others, but, I warn you, it has the potential to make you doubt the expertness of the experts.

Fantasy Football How Much Do You Believe

Sit Chris Johnson in favor of Willis McGahee?

Fantasy Football: The Best Pass Defenses

Recall that the top four passing yards allowed defenses are amongst the worst rushing defenses.

Pass RankTeamPYAVs
4NY Giants157@TB
6New England161.5ATL

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Fantasy Football: The Best Run Defenses

There are nine teams whose rushing yards allowed are better than one standard deviation away from the mean. Of these, four rank amongst the worst in passing yards allowed. Drawing the conclusion one should start or sit a RB needs to be informed by the fact the team has been unable to stop the pass.

The Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans, New Orleans Saints and Buffalo Bills are the "elite" rush defenses with the poor pass defenses. FWIW, the average rushing yards allowed through the first two weeks is 117 with a standard deviation of 50.

Rush RankTeamRYAVs
3San Francisco53@MIN
5New Orleans59@BUF
6NY Jets60.5TEN

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Fantasy Football: Why You Need Patience

The Kansas City Chiefs surprisingly made 3rd down RB Jamaal Charles inactive in Week Two. The natural reaction is to drop Charles in favor of this week's favored waiver wire pick-up.

However, I want to caution everyone who has seen their teams under-perform despite rosters build with depth. The Bye Week portion of the 2009 schedule begins in another week. At that point, the 10 point fantasy starter becomes much more valuable.

Fantasy Football: Alpha Possibilities From Week Two

Last week, I mentioned two possible sources of fantasy football alpha. First, the Pittsburgh Steelers cannot run the ball. The logical action would be to sit Willie Parker. Check.

The other possible alpha source was the Arizona Cardinals could stop the run. The Jacksonville Jaguars got just 92 yards rushing. I am not ready to put this in the win column given the Cardinals were up big, and the Jags were compelled to throw.

From Week Two, I see a couple more possible sources of fantasy alpha.

1. The Tennessee Titans are a bad defensive team.
2. The New York Giants offense appears more balanced.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Fantasy Football Are You Selling Low

Steve Slaton for Ray Rice?

Fantasy Football: Follow Up On Week Two Waiver Wire

Here are the follow-up efforts of Week Two's waiver wire pick-ups. I am unaware of any fantasy football sites who put their predictions/advise to the test of following up.

My waiver wire pick-ups are based on my intuitive valuation system. What I hope to accomplish from this data is some pattern related to my own ability to spot quality pick-ups. Without benchmarks, I won't be able to conclude I am better than the average fantasy football analyst, though.

The yardage totals presented are combined rushing and receiving yards for RB, WR, and TE, and passing yards for QBs.

Week OneWeek Two PerformanceGood Pick Up
WR Austin Collie Indianapolis ColtsMNFNA
WR Mario Manningham New York Giants150 yards TDYes
RB Chris Brown Houston Texans25 yards No TDsNo
QB Mark Sanchez New York Jets163 yards 1 TD 0 INTNo
WR Laurent Robinson St. Louis Rams54 yards TDYes
WR Patrick Crayton Dallas Cowboys24 yardsNo
RB Cadillac Williams Tampa Bay Buccaneers65 yards TDYes
RB Mike Bell New Orleans Saints95 yards TDYes
WR Mark Bradley Kansas City ChiefsZero receptionsNo
RB Willis McGahee Baltimore Ravens89 yards 2 TDYes

Week Three Waiver Wire Pick Ups

Fantasy Football: Top Waiver Wire Pick-Ups Week Three

In no particular order, but there exists the possibility of a PPR bias. Depth of leagues tends towards deeper ones, but, as long as Yahoo! and ESPn offer 10-team formats, players like Willis McGahee are on the waiver wire.

WR Bobby Wade Kansas City Chiefs
WR Julian Edelman New England Patriots
WR Laurent Robinson St. Louis Rams
WR Mike Sims-Walker Jacksonville Jaguars
WR Johnnie Knox Chicago Bears
RB Willis McGahee Baltimore Ravens
TE Jermichael Finley Green Bay Packers
RB Justin Forsett Seattle Seahawks
RB Correll Buckhalter Denver Broncos
WR Jabar Gaffney Denver Broncos
RB Jason Snelling Atlanta Falcons
WR Mario Manningham New York Giants
WR Steve Smith New York Giants

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Fantasy Football: My Start/Sit Decisions

12-team PPR
WR Santana Moss over RB Ahmad Bradshaw at Flex
Why: Hunch Moss will get a long TD against the Rams pass defense.

QB Matt Schaub over Donovan McNabb
Why: Even if McNabb was active, I am not risking a 1st drive hit and losing McNabb for rest of game.

12-team PPR
WR Brandon Marshall over RB Ahmad Bradshaw at Flex
Why: Hunch that Marshall breaks. Damn tantalizing skills!

QB Matt Schaub over Jason Campbell
Why: Campbell has the better match-up, but Schaub has the better skills. Campbell and big passing yardage? Unheard of!

12-team non-PPR
RB Ahmad Bradshaw over RB Knowshon Moreno or RB Mike Bell
Why: Despite claiming 100% health, Moreno hasn't earned #1 status and Broncos unpredictable right now. Mike Bell is going against a quality defnese on the road and won't have the luxury of a large lead to run with.

Fantasy Football Start Sit Anquan Boldin

If you are in a position to sit him, do. In a position means a player who can reasonably be expected to score 10 points.

Easier said than done of course.

Fantasy Football: Start/Sit Knowshon Moreno

In a PPR league, do you start the safe 10 points of New York Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw or take a chance on Denver Broncos' RB Knowshon Moreno against a Cleveland Browns rush defense that embarassed at home against the Minnesota Vikings?

I asked the Fantasy Freaks via Twitter (see updates on sidebar). Here is there answer:
" I actually think Buckhalter might have more of that upside."

That settled it. Ahmad Bradshaw versus the risk Moreno doesn't take over the #1 duties in the first week he claims to be 100%

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Fantasy Baseball: Cash Or Stephen Strasburg?

Currently residing in 6th place in a 12-team, top 5 finishes win cash league. The 6th place team earns the 1st pick in the minor league draft.

Is it better to get cash money or the number one pick in next year's minor league draft? FWIW, 1st place is ten times what the 5th place team receives.

Fantasy Football I Do Not Know Why But

I do not like the Saints against the Philadelphia defense.

Fantasy Football: The Worst Run Defenses, Start/Sit RB

There is a lot of fantasy expertise that has moved towards WRs over RBs as more stable fantasy assets. When it comes to defenses, though, being poor against the run is the rock upon which you make your start/sit decisions. Tim Hightower, Beanie Wells, Knowshon Moreno, Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, Darren McFadden, Chris Johnson, and Michael Turner are in line for good/great games.

Rush RankTeamRYAVs
30Kansas City198OAK

Friday, September 18, 2009

Fantasy Football What Is He Worth

San Diego Chargers Darren Sproles.

A 4th round WR? Matt Schaub tier QB? Top 5 TE?

Fantasy Football: Start/Sit Week Two TE

Back of the envelope calcuations advise sitting TEs who scored a TD last week and startign TEs who did not. For fantasy football, this means the starts are Dustin Keller, Visenthe Shiancoe and Owen Daniels.

Fantasy Football: The Worst Passing Defenses

Who didn't defend the pass in Week One? Here are the five teams whose passing Yards allowed were at least one standard deviation worse than their peers. FWIW, the only one of the five whose rushing yards allowed also ranked as poorly was the Kansas City Chiefs.

Let's see if KC can do for JaMarcus Russell what they did for Joe Flacco.

Pass RankTeamPYAVs
30Tampa Bay344@BUF
28Kansas City303OAK

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Fantasy Football: The Best Pass Defenses

The mean passing yards allowed in Week One was 213 with a standard deviation of 80. Also, one must remember that allowing fewer passing yards often means the defense was run over. For Jacksonville, Carolina and Cleveland this applies.

Pass RankTeamPYAVs

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Fantasy Football: Start/Sit Week Two QB

Houston Texans QB Matt Schaub or Washington Redskins QB Jason Campbell.

Schaub looked overwhelmed against a ferocious New York Jets defense but he goes up against a Tennessee Titans pass defense that allowed Ben Roethlisberger to wrack up more than 300 yards through the air. With Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton and Owen Daniels, the Texans' receiving options are as good as the Steelers' ones.

Campbell faces a St. Louis Rams defense that allowed more than 270 yards through the air. TE Chris Cooley and WRs Santana Moss and Antoine Randel-El compare favroably with their Seahawk counterparts. The exception is a stronger Redskins' rushing attack.

I'm leaning towards Schaub.

Fantasy Football: The Best Rush Defenses

Here are the best rush defenses from Week One along with the team's Week Two opponnent. "Best" is defined as more than one standard deviation away from the mean team rushing yards allowed. In this case, the mean was 107 with a standard deviation of 63. Both rounded up.

Rush RankTeamRYAVs
3New Orleans33@PHI
5NY Jets38NE
6San Francisco40SEA

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Fantasy Baseball: 2nd Time Brennan Boesch

Baseball Prospectus | Future Shock: Great Leaps Forward, AL: "Runner-Up: A third-round pick in 2006, gigantic right fielder Brennan Boesch hit just 22 home runs in 307 games coming into the year, but he exploded with an organization-high 28 home runs at Erie as part of a .275/.318/.510 line. The middle number in that group immediately tells you that the approach needs work, though."

Fantasy Alpha readers knew about Boesch more than a month ago.

Fantasy Football: Alpha Possibilities From Week One

One game doesn't make an entire season, but fantasy footballers do not have the luxury of wating for a good sample size. In addition to start/sit, waiver wire pick-ups and Top 10 Defense ranks for and against (beginning after Week Three), I will be posting alpha seeking possibilities. Today here are two possible sources of alpha.

1. The Pittsburgh Steelers' running game is no good.
2. The Arizona Cardinals can stop the run.

Monday, September 14, 2009

Fantasy Football: Top Waiver Pick-Ups Week Two

In no particular order. However, there is a bias towards deeper leagues (12+ teams and/or 5+ bench spots), but 10-team Yahoo! pick-ups are also represented.

1. WR Austin Collie Indianapolis Colts
2. WR Mario Manningham New York Giants
3. RB Chris Brown Houston Texans
4. QB Mark Sanchez New York Jets
5. WR Laurent Robinson St. Louis Rams
6. WR Patrick Crayton Dallas Cowboys
7. RB Cadillac Williams Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. RB Mike Bell New Orleans Saints
9. WR Mark Bradley Kansas City Chiefs
10. RB Willis McGahee Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Fantasy Football: Start/Sit Injury Links

Tell me what you want football Sunday to look like. Just the injury links? Start/sit decisions? And so on.

Here is a link to ESPN's Stephania Bell, ESPN's Adam Schefter's Twitter account and the link to Will Carroll's Twitter account and his Football Outsiders Black and Blue Report.

Let's also throw in ESPN's NFL Countdown Twitter account.

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Fantasy Football: Punting RBs For Real

With the 7th pick, I selected WR Andre Johnson of the Houston Texans. When the draft snaked back, I grabbed WR Calvin Johnson. When I took Atlanta Falcons' WR Roddy White with my third round pick (#31 overall), punting RBs became the strategy.

Given this is my highest stakes league, real life experience will greatly inform what has previously been just a theoretical exercise.

With three elite WRs, the game becomes gambling on as many RBs as possible in search of two who can be legitmate #1 or #2 backs. I believe this is as likely as finding Saves in fantasy baseball. We will see.

17Andre JohnsonWRHouston Texans
218Calvin JohnsonWRDetroit Lions
331Roddy WhiteWRAtlanta Falcons
442Darren McFaddenRBOakland Raiders
555Knowshon MorenoRBDenver Broncos
666Tony RomoQBDallas Cowboys
779Ahmad BradshawRBNew York Giants
890Donald BrownRBIndianapolis Colts
9103Santana MossWRWashington Redskins
10114James DavisRBCleveland Browns
11127Donnie AveryWRSt Louis Rams
12138Jamaal CharlesRBKansas City Chiefs
13151Peyton HillisRBDenver Broncos
14162Visenthe ShiancoeTEMinnesota Vikings
15175New Orleans SaintsDSTNew Orleans Saints
16186Jeff ReedKPittsburgh Steelers

Fantasy Football: Start/Sit Anquan Boldin

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Football Outsiders Almanac 2009:

"The information I have is that Boldin will play, will likely start, but will be limited in how much he's used and what he's asked to do. Look for shorter routes, especially ones that will let him run free to the sidelines so that he doesn't have to cut or stop too hard."

Fantasy Football: Start/Sit Week One

Denver Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno or his teamate Peyton Hillis or New York Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw.

The perils of punting RBs.

Friday, September 11, 2009

Fantasy Football: Sleeper QB

Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo.

There has been three QBs who threw 25+ Tds in each of the past two seasons - Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning and the former Mrs. Jessica Simpson.

Fantasy Football: Most Under Rated QB

Indianpolis Colts QB Peyton Manning.

This may surprise but QBs do not typically throw 25+ TDs per season. Since 1998, there have been 65 seasons of 25 or more TD passes.

Manning has done it 11 times. Second place is Brett Favre with six seasons.

Other notables: Tom Brady, Kurt Warner and Drew Brees (4)

Fantasy Football: Start/Sit Week One

Houston Texans RB Steve Slaton of Baltimore Ravens RB Ray Rice.

With the Texans' beta writer just announcing RB Chris Brown is going to take 8-12 touches from Slaton this season, Slaton would no longer be a top 10 RB. The opposite is occurring with Rice. The Ravens have clearly stated he is the #1.

Just asking the question signals Rice is a 2nd round value, doesn't it?

Fantasy Football: Late Drafts

How much did last night's performances by Pittsburgh Steelers' RB Willie Parker change? Prior to last night, he was a RB3, at best, being taken in the 6th/7th round.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Fantasy Football: WR Rockets Up Draftboard?

With news the Denver Broncos want to extend WR Brandon Marshall, he moves into sleeper territory in the 4th/5th round.

Fantasy Football WR Sleeper

Indianapolis Colts 3rd WR Austin Collie

Fantasy Football: Week One Start/Sit

New Orleans Saints RB Mike Bell vs Detroit Lions, Denver BRoncos WR Brandon Marshall vs Cincinnati Bengals or Marshall's teammate WR Eddie Royal.

I am leaning towards Bell. My other RBs/WRs are Matt Forte and Ray Rice and Steve Smith and Marquis Colston.

Wednesday, September 09, 2009

Fantasy Football: Some 2009 Football Sleepers

RotoSynthesis >> My '09 Sleepers:

"'Who are your sleepers?'"

I'd add Darren McFadden to Mr. Schoenke's exhaustive RB list. Unsurprisingly, there are few WR sleepers.

Fantasy Football: Punting RB Draft Strategy

With very few fantasy football drafts left, here is one last strategy played out in the mock draft arena - punting RBs

A 12-team PPR format with the 2nd overall pick. As you will quickly deduce, skipping RBs until the 5th round from the second overall pick meant taking a ton of gambles at RB at the expense of reliable WRs.

12Andre JohnsonWRHouston Texans
223Aaron RodgersQBGreen Bay Packers
326Steven SmithWRCarolina Panthers
447Darren McFaddenRBOakland Raiders
550Marshawn LynchRBBuffalo Bills
671Derrick WardRBTampa Bay Bucanneers
774Cedric BensonRBCincinnatti Bengals
895Fred JacksonRBBuffalo Bills
998Dustin KellerTENew York Jets
10119James DavisRBCleveland Browns
11122Chris HenryWRCincinnatti Bengals
12143Earl BennettRBChicago Bears
13146Jermichael FinleyTEGreen Bay Packers

Fantasy Baseball: What Albert Pujols' Triangular Scar Means

Maybe Will Carroll’s triangular scar observation means Pujols had TJS, and fantasy players need to stop worrying about the possibility.

If true, great for fantasy. Absolutely horrible for front office disclosure. Kind of one up’s J.P. Ricciardi’s outright lie about BJ Ryan’s elbow a couple seasons ago.

Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Fantasy Baseball: 2010 Sleeper

Just an FYI. Pittsburgh Pirates OF Garrett Jones has 32 HRs and 23 SBs combine dbetween the majors and AAA.

If you believe, he is a legitmate 10th rounder.

Fantasy Football: Commish Chick's Big Fat Claims

RotoExperts - FANTASY FOOTBALL: Big Fat Claims - The Commish Chick:

I have drafted #s 3 and 4 and already alerted RM readers to them.

Fantasy Baseball: One OF Biggest Disappointments In 2009

Florida Marlins 3B/OF Emilio Bonafacio.

Fantasy Baseball: Albert Pujols Had Tommy John Surgery?

Is this an example of everything the old information gatekeepers complain about the new information dispersers?

Baseball Prospectus | Under The Knife: Down and Out:

"There was a small triangular scar at the back. I was a bit surprised to see it, because it's well-known that Pujols had ulnar transposition surgery, not Tommy John surgery; it's TJS that creates the distinct triangular scar. I'm no scar scholar, but I know that UTS usually leaves a player with a linear scar, one that's (warning—these links are pretty graphic) large and quite noticeable, even almost a year later. Pujols' was done to minimize damage, so that it's smaller is no real surprise. That it looks just like a Tommy John scar is something to note, though I want it to be clear that I don't think the team or Pujols is hiding anything here."

Fantasy Football Draft Results With #2 Pick

A 12-team PPR with 8 bench slots. My Hunch #1 QB went 21st overall, and my Hunch #1 WR went #9 overall.

I tired to trade back in the first round to take my Hunch #1 WR but the other team backed out of a swap of 1sts for a swap of his 5th rounder and my 8th rounder. FWIW, he took Steve Slaton at #8 and TE Dallas Clark with his 5th round pick. I took QB matt Schaub with my 8th rounder.

12Matt ForteRB1Chicago Bears
223Steve SmithWRCarolina Panthers
326Marques ColstonWRNew Orleans Saints
447Eddie RoyalWRDenver Broncos
550Ray RiceRB2Baltimore Ravens
671Brandon MarshallWRDenver Broncos
774Ahmad BradshawRBNew York Giants
895Matt SchaubQBHouston Texans
998Dustin KellerTENew York Jets
10119James DavisRBCleveland Browns
11122Mike BellRBNew Orleans Saints
12143Bernard Scott RBCincinnati Bengals
13146Matt CasselQBKansas City Chiefs
14167Peyton HillisRBDenver Broncos
15170Jermichael FinleyTEGreen Bay Packers
16191Washington RedskinsDSTWashington Redskins
17194John CarneyKNew Orleans Saints

My 1st 12-team PPR Draft With #1 Pick

Fantasy Football: Sleeper DST

New Orleans Saints.

Monday, September 07, 2009

Fantasy Football: Where To Draft Brandon Marshall

Denver Broncos WR Brandon Marshall was taken with the 71st pick.

Fantasy Football: Overthinking?

Fantasy Football Index:

"It's week 1. You've got an entire season ahead of worrying about matchups, injuries, historical nuances, and how long it will take for your deep sleepers and rookies to emerge. So why get started any earlier than you have to?"

Fantasy Football: On A Hunch, The #1 WR In 2009

Houston Texans WR Andre Johnson

Fantasy Football: On A Hunch, The #1 QB in 2009

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers

Sunday, September 06, 2009

Fantasy Baseball: New York Mets Off-Season Plans

As I commented at Rotosynthesis, if we knew the true extant of the Wilpons' loses to Bernie Madoff and their real estate portfolio, we can make more educated guesses about what the New York Mets plan to do for 2010. Like the balance sheets of big banks, assume it is worse than reported. In this case, the Mets will likely play for today but with bottom-of-the-barrel veterans who make 1B Adam LaRoche look like Albert Pujols.

What the team needs to do is something close to what Baltimore did two seasons ago and deal the high priced talent for players in 2011. The players competing for the role of Erik Bedard are Johan Santana (too obvious), Carlos Beltran (they wish) and the brilliant left side of the infield, 3B David Wright and SS Jose Reyes.

Fantasy Football: Which New England Patriot RB To Draft

Once a New England Patriots RB looks like he will be the 1st, 2nd and 3rd down back, dive in. Until Kevin Faulk is no longer on the team, don't bother putting on your swim trunks.

Fantasy Sports Industry Outlook

It is an oligarchy.

My first observation is here.

Fantasy Football: A Key To Expert Draft Prep

Once you understand you scoring rules, the most important skill that separates regular and expert fantasy football players is the knowledge that drafts present forks so early in the draft that you must adjust.

Other than you first pick, one can't map out with much specificity who you will take in the second and third round. By the fourth, you are drafting best available for your roster construction.

Saturday, September 05, 2009

Fantasy Football: Cincinnati RB receptions

When Rudi Johnson was a legitmate 1st round RB, he caught between 15-20 passes from Carson Palmer. Do not take 2009 starting RB Cedric Benson's 20 receptions last season and pro-rate them. He did not have Palmer under center. Nor did he have three slot/downfield WRs either.

Fantasy Baseball: Top 10 in 2010

This is preliminary and the obvious 1B are missing. I am seriously considering dropping Hanley Ramirez a few spots given his drop in HRs and SBs.

1. 1B Albert Pujols
2. SS Hanley Ramirez
3. 3B Alex Rodriguez
4. 2B Chase Utley
5. SP Tim Lincecum
6. C Joe Mauer
7. OF Matt Kemp
8. OF Ryan Braun
9. OF Justin Upton
10. OF Carl Crawford

Fantasy Football: Draft Results And Second Thoughts

With another 12-team PPR draft coming up on Labor Day night, I wanted to relay some feedback I received on my 1st draft. Here is the team I drafted.

1.011Adrian PetersonMINRB
2.1224Steve SmithCARWR
3.0125Greg JenningsGBPWR
4.1248Pierre ThomasNOSRB
5.0149Darren McFaddenOAKRB
6.1272Donovan McNabbPHIQB
7.0173Matt SchaubHOUQB
8.1296Ahmad BradshawNYGRB
9.0197Dustin KellerNYJTE
10.12120Torry HoltJACWR
11.01121Ted Ginn JrMIAWR
12.12144Jermichael FinleyGBPTE
13.01145Jamaal CharlesKCCRB
14.12168Bernard ScottCINRB
15.01169John CarneyNOSPK
16.12192New Orleans SaintsNOSDef

Where I thought I stole the two RBs in the 4th and 5th round, others were not so impressed. As a matter of fact, the McFadden pick seemed to be the most puzzling.

Did I fall in love with the potential breakout? Can I count on the same reaction in my next two drafts?

Friday, September 04, 2009

Fantasy Football: Will Carroll On Pierre Thomas

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Football Outsiders Almanac 2009:

"Pierre Thomas is the bigger issue for the Saints, having sprained his MCL. He didn't play Thursday and his availability for Week 1 is in serious question. Even if he does play, his effectiveness will be an issue."

Normally, I don't root against Will Carroll, but, in this case, I am. My bet was laid on the teams treating any ding, no matter how minor, as a reason not to play a starter.

Fantasy Football: Why Percy Harvin Will Be A Bust

Minnesota Vikings rookie WR Percy Harvin was amongst the most highly regarded fantasy football sleepers coming into this season following his explosive career at Florida. When Brett Favre and the Vikings finally consumated their mating ritual, Harvin immediately became one of the top rookie options in 2009.

While Harvin has been compared to a WR version of Reggie Bush - 80 rushing/recev ing yards with a coupel of special teams TDs to boot, he is not a RB getting 6 receptions out of the backfield. Nor can he accumulate the points Bush did a an 80 reception receiver in PPR formats.

Worse, Harvin is a WR who will be expected to provide trick plays when he is on the field. Defenses know this and will be especially attuned to his presence. Even worse than that, he will be a rookie WR who gets the attention of opposing defenses.

For that reason, Percy Harvin will be a fantasy football bust in 2009.

Fantasy Sports: Industry Outlook

Bleak. How can a product so widely desired not be able to provide a living to its most insightful writers?

Fantasy Football Expert Herd Behavior

The hating on LaDanian Tomlinson?

Fantasy Football: Like The QB, Not So Much The WRs

In order of liking the QBS:

Dallas Cowboys Tony Romo
Philadelphia Eagles Donovan McNabb
San Diego Chargers Philip Rivers
Chicago Bears Jay Cutler
New York Giants Eli Manning

In order of least liked WRs to more liked:

New York Giants Eli Manning
San Diego Chargers Philip Rivers
Dallas Cowboys Tony Romo
Chicago Bears Jay Cutler
Philadelphia Eagles Donovan McNabb

Thursday, September 03, 2009

Fantasy Football: What? Me Worry? Fantasy Bust

Why no worry that last season's injury-riddled one wasn't the beginning of the the end for the 29-year-old Antonio Gates? Just 60 receptions while battling numerous leg injuries. At his size, one could see him aging poorly.

Fantasy Football: Mentioned On Rotowire Fantasy Sports Hour

A couple days ago, I commented at Rotosynthesis that Denver Bronco's head coach josh McDaniels is analogous to Toronto Blue Jays' Gm J.P. Ricciardi. Today's Rotowire Fantasy Sports Hour podcast mentioned it around the 5 minute mark.

Fantasy Baseball: 2010 Sleeper

Cleveland Indians OF Michael Brantley.

The Cleveland Indians and Grady Sizemore are in rumors that Sizemore will be shut down. Brantley's higher than 1.0 BB/K plus 40+ SBs in AAA says he is ready to be a fantasy contributor.

Fantasy Football: Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 Sleepers And Busts

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Football Outsiders Almanac 2009:

"The players listed for each team are one expected to rise, one expected to fall, and one to look out for, respectively.

Atlanta Falcons: Jerious Norwood, Matt Ryan, Stephen Nicholas
Carolina Panthers: Jeff Otah, DeAngelo Williams, Charles Johnson
New Orleans Saints: Pierre Thomas, Jeremy Shockey, Tracy Porter
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kellen Winslow, Ronde Barber, Roy Miller
Houston Texans: Matt Schaub, Jacques Reeves, Xavier Adibi
Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Gonzalez, Jeff Saturday, Ed Johnson
Jacksonville Jaguars: David Garrard, Rob Meier, Torry Holt
Tennessee Titans: LenDale White, Cortland Finnegan, Jason Jones"

Fantasy Football: The QBs Go Early And Draft Results

Here is the first of my three fantasy football teams. The league is a 12-team PPR league and contians severals fantasy football experts. I selected 1st overall and choose Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson. I had little doubt about that pick.

What I wasn't so sure about was which positions to address at the 2.12/3.01 turn. I had been seriously entertaining a QB/WR if any of the top QBs were available (Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning).

When Tom Brady was selected with the 2nd pick, I had a feeling taking a QB was unlikely. After Brady, Drew Brees was selected 7th overall. Then Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers were taken in the 2nd round as was Arizona Cardinals QB Kurt Warner.

Those selections solidified my strategy to draft amongst the next group of QBs later in the draft. In another surprise turn, Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan was selected in the 3rd round as was Dallas Cowboy QB Tony Romo and San Diego Charger Philip Rivers.

My immediate adjustment was to put off selecting a QB until later and take advantage of the fact that top WRs and RBs will be available when I picked who otherwise wouldn't have been thanks to the surprise early drafting of QBs.

My roster bears out that assessment.

1.011Adrian PetersonMINRB
2.1224Steve SmithCARWR
3.0125Greg JenningsGBPWR
4.1248Pierre ThomasNOSRB
5.0149Darren McFaddenOAKRB
6.1272Donovan McNabbPHIQB
7.0173Matt SchaubHOUQB
8.1296Ahmad BradshawNYGRB
9.0197Dustin KellerNYJTE
10.12120Torry HoltJACWR
11.01121Ted Ginn JrMIAWR
12.12144Jermichael FinleyGBPTE
13.01145Jamaal CharlesKCCRB
14.12168Bernard ScottCINRB
15.01169John CarneyNOSPK
16.12192New Orleans SaintsNOSDef

Wednesday, September 02, 2009

Fantasy Football The Deepest Position

TE. With the dearth of quality #2 WRs, teams employ the TE as the 2nd receiver.

Normally, I take an elite TE in the 3rd, 4th or 5th round in PPR formats. I am not doing that this season.

Fantasy Football: If You Believe Arizona Cardinals' RB Beanie Wells, do you also believe the passing game will be slightly less prolific and/or 3rd WR Steve Breaston will be a disappointment?

Fantasy Football Sleeper Flex In PPR

1 Ahmad Bradshaw
2 Leon Washington
3 Felix Jones
4 Peyton Hillis

Fantasy Baseball: 2010 Sleepers

Who do you like more, Chicago Cubs 3B/OF Jake Fox or Pittsburgh Pirates OF Garret Jones?

Fantasy Football: Draft Logistics Advice

RotoSynthesis >> Draft Logistics Advice:

"What's the best way to conduct a fantasy football draft or auction? Here's some advice and tips from someone who's in 30+ fantasy drafts/auctions per year."

I have a 12-team PPR tonight using Rotowire's commissioner service. If there are major issues, I'll let you know.

Picking 1st and still deciding whether to go Adrian Peterson- WR-WR or -RB-WR or RB-RB or RB-QB. I'm feeling like zigging when other zag.

Fantasy Football: More Sleepers And Overall Draft Positions

Whenever one listens to various fantasy football experts talk about players, one always hears this guy is a RB2 or a 3rd wide receiver or a QB2. The problem is there isn't any sort of way to see these players grouped together. Rotisserie Musings steps into this gap and provides RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, QB, TE, FLEX and Bench designations for your improved fantasy football preparation and knowledge.

Here are the 3rd and a few 4th bench spots taken with the overall pick used. This is typically where fantasy drafts begin to take their fantasy football sleeper RBs, sleeper WR and then fantasy sleeper QBs and TEs later. You will also find sleepers in the Flex position for those who tend to reach earlier for them.

99Ben RoethlisbergerBN3
109Laurence MaroneyBN3
110Steve BreastonBN3
111Justin FargasBN3
112Darius Heywood-BeyBN3
113Matt HasselbackBN3
114Carson PalmerBN3
115Eli ManningBN3
116Torry HoltBN3
117John CarlsonBN3
119Jamaal CharlesBN3
120Jack DelhommeBN3
121Chester TaylorBN4
122Kyle OrtonBN4
123Brandon PettigrewBN4
124Kevin WalterBN4
125Ricky WilliamsBN4

TE Ranks
Sleeper Ranks 2
QB Ranks
Fantasy Football Sleepers 1
Flex Ranks
WR2 Results
WR1 Results
RB1 Results
RB2 Results
12-team PPR draft results

Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Fantasy Football Denver Bronco Version of Kevin Faulk

Fullback Peyton Hillis

Fantasy Baseball: Jim Thome FAAB Bid

I can't see anything but a minimal bid for the top power-hitting pinch hitter in the National League. There is no chance he plays in the NL next season so there is no upside to landing him now.

Fantasy Football: TE Ranks And Overall Draft Position

Whenever one listens to various fantasy football experts talk about players, one always hears this guy is a RB2 or a 3rd wide receiver or a QB2. The problem is there isn't any sort of way to see these players grouped together. Rotisserie Musings steps into this gap and provides RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, QB, TE, FLEX and Bench designations for your improved fantasy football preparation and knowledge.

Finally, the TE ranks with the overall draft spot. This information provides some intelligence on how long you can wait and still expect to fill the particular position.

38Jason WittenTE
40Antonio GatesTE
47Dallas ClarkTE
61Dustin KellerTE
67Kellen WinslowTE
68Greg OlsonTE
69Owen DanielsTE
72Chris CooleyTE
82Tony GonzalezTE
103Brett CelekTE
104Jeremy ShockeyTE
118Zach MillerTE

Sleeper Ranks 2
QB Ranks
Fantasy Football Sleepers 1
Flex Ranks
WR2 Results
WR1 Results
RB1 Results
RB2 Results
12-team PPR draft results

Fantasy Football: New York Sleeper WRs

In PPR formats, the New York Giants Steve Smith looks like a 5/60 WR. In non-PPR formats, Giants' WR Domenick Hixon looks like a 3/60 WR.

The New York Jets Chansi Stuckey and David Clowney look like Domenick Hixon types right now. Unfortunately, there is no clear differentiations between the two. Half a Hixon is not good.

Fantasy Football: Twinjuries

injuryexpert Closing @Twinjuries. Tough to establish w/ free competition + I'm very bearish on ANYONE succeeding with a pay-for-content model going fwd.

Very sympathetic to that view. ESPN Insider suceeds the same way Medicare/Medicaid does - an endless supply of other revenue to subsidize it.

Fantasy Football: Sleeper TE

OK. The team at Rotosynthesis loves Jermichael Finley of the Green Bay Packers. An excellent question was posed over there. Which TE do you drop to add Finley from the free agent pool?

Brett Celek? Jeremy Shockey? Zach Miller?

Fantasy Football: Sleepers And Overall Draft Position

Whenever one listens to various fantasy football experts talk about players, one always hears this guy is a RB2 or a 3rd wide receiver or a QB2. The problem is there isn't any sort of way to see these players grouped together. Rotisserie Musings steps into this gap and provides RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, QB, TE, FLEX and Bench designations for your improved fantasy football preparation and knowledge.

Here are the second bench spots taken with the overall pick used. This is typically where fantasy drafts begin to take their fantasy football sleeper RBs, sleeper WR and then fantasy sleeper QBs and TEs later. You will also find sleepers in the Flex position for those who tend to reach earlier for them.

75Fred JacksonBN2
89Donald DriverBN2
90Willie ParkerBN2
97Percy HarvinBN2
98Chad OchoCincoBN2
100Chris HenryBN2
101Darren SprolesBN2
102Donnie AveryBN2
105Shonn GreeneBN2
106Brett FavreBN2
107Willis McGaheeBN2
108Leon WashingtonBN2

QB Ranks
Fantasy Football Sleepers 1
Flex Ranks
WR2 Results
WR1 Results
RB1 Results
RB2 Results
12-team PPR draft results