Week 17 Start Sit Made Easier: BEst & Worst pass Defenses

Not sure if this list is more meaningless than a Week One, but you decide.

Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
1	Kansas City	89.7	@DEN	Sit Brandon Marshalll
2	Arizona	136.3	GB	Sit Greg Jennings_Donald Driver
3	NY Jets	148.7	CIN	Sit Chad OchoCinco
4	Baltimore	154	@OAK	Sit Louis Murphy?
5	New England	164	@HOU	Sit Andre Johnson
6	Buffalo	183.7	IND	Sit Reggie Wayne
7	Indianapolis	186.3	@BUF	Sit Terrell Owens
8	Oakland	190	BAL	Sit Derrick Mason
9	Denver	195.5	KC	Sit Chris Chambers
10	Pittsburgh	202.7	@MIA	Sit Devone Bess
23	Philadelphia	234.7	@DAL	Start Miles Austin_Roy Williams
24	Dallas	238	PHI	Start DeSean Jackson
25	Washington	240	@SD	Start Vincent Jackson
26	Tennessee	252.7	@SEA	Start TJ Houshmandzadeh_Nate Burrelson
27	Cleveland	255	JAX	Start Mike Sims-Walker
28	Jacksonville	261	@CLE	Start Mohamed Massaquoi
29	Seattle	278	TEN	Start Nate Washington
30	Green Bay	281	@AZ	Start Larry Fitzgerald_Anquan Boldin
31	New Orleans	286.7	@CAR	Start Steve Smith
32	St. Louis	316.7	SF	Start Michael Crabtree

MLB Trade Rumors: Chicago Cubs

ESPN: Chicago Cubs Sign Marlon Byrd:

"The Cubs still are seeking trades and free-agent signings. General manager Jim Hendry is looking to solidify his bullpen and maybe add one swing starting pitcher/long reliever.

The team has had several conversations with the agent for former White Sox pitcher Jose Contreras, and have had conversations with Colorado about outfielder Ryan Spilborghs, who would fill the role of the fourth outfielder behind Byrd, Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome.

The Cubs also have talked to the Toronto Blue Jays about bullpen pitchers. Former Oak Forest High School pitcher Jason Frasor is on the Cubs' radar. Frasor was a starter at Southern Illinois for four years."

Dem be some pretty minor names. I don't see the Cubs making any real splashes in the trade market unless the team can get the New York Mets to take the $54MM owed Carlos Zambrano.

MLB Trade Rumors: Matt Holliday To St. Louis

Derrick Goold with the St. Louis Dispatch:

"The wait might have been worth it for the Cardinals, as the club and free-agent outfielder Matt Holliday are working toward an agreement that multiple sources described as gaining momentum and potentially is the largest ever offered by the franchise....Boras has been seeking an eight-year contract with an average salary that compares with the $18-million salaries Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee currently make and exceeds the $16.5-million salary Jason Bay reportedly just signed with the Mets."

Largest until Pujols' contract. I can't wait to see how the mid-market Cardinals construct a roster in 2013 with Holliday and Pujols taking up $40+MM of payroll.

Add-in SP Adam Wainwright and...of wait, I'm not going to project AW that far in the future because an arm injury takes him from $15MM to incentive-laden deal.

MLB Trade Rumors: Dan Uggla & Chicago Cubs

John Perrotto at Baseball Prospectus:

"The Braves are emerging as the team most likely to trade for Uggla after the Giants decided to sign free-agent infielder Mark DeRosa than deal for the second baseman. … The Cubs are considering free agents Rick Ankiel, Marlon Byrd, and Scott Podsednik to play center field, but they also have interest in trading for the Rays’ Fernando Perez. …"

Sorry about the potentially misleading headline. As a Jeff Baker owner, I'd prefer the Cubs not address 2B and let the former Clemson HR champ get a season of full-time ABs.

As for the three potential centerfielders, I am having a hard time believing any serious contender would want Rick Ankiel on anything more than a one-year deal. Marlon Byrd intrigues me as he offers power.

Why Byrd hasn't got more press this off-season puzzles me.

MLB Trade Rumors" New York Yankees & Jermaine Dye

Buster Olney at ESPN.com

"I wanted to know if you believe the Yankees will sign Jermaine Dye, another free agent, or go with their own talent? Or, if they go with their own talent, who will be there outfielders in 2010? --Robert Montin, Birmingham, Ala.

Robert: They aren't in the running for Dye, who really doesn't fit what they're trying to do defensively. The guess here is that they go for someone along the lines of Jerry Hairston/Randy Winn type, someone who has some versatility and plays decent defense. Johnny Damon is a longshot, if he'd be willing to come back and play for a 50 to 60 percent pay cut."

As a fantasy player, I'd prefer Brett Gardner to see a lot of time and provide cheap SBs. As a Yankees fan, adding a professional like Rany Winn to work with Gardner makes the team stronger defensively.

I'd prefer Damon, though. Proven players in New York mean something.

Fantasy Sleeper: 3B

With HRs down, the value of the 20 HR hitter has increased. There exists a 3B/OF qualifier who is likely to be a single-digit player in AL-only auction drafts and an end-game draftee/free agent in mixed formats.

His name? Mark Teahen.

While there is little in his profile to make anyone believe he can hit 20 HRs (50% groundball rate, sub-80% contact rate), he does have a new home ballpark, U.S. Cellular Field. In it, Teahen has a career SLG of .510 and a HR/AB rate of 5.8% compared to a .424 and 2.3% rates at Kauffman Stadium.

The math works out to 21-22 HRs assuming the relationships hold in 2010.

MLB Trade Rumors: New York Mets

Buster Olney:

"Q: Why won't the Mets do anything good this offseason? I have been waiting and checking every day to see what they do, but they won't do anything.
--Nick Chiappetta, North Salem, N.Y.

A: Nick, It's only a matter of time; they'll be doing some stuff soon. Whether or not you'll like what they do is another question entirely. We'll see what decisions they make in the hours and days ahead."

HitTracker: Melky Cabrera

HitTracker :: Player and Field Detail

I know the Atlanta braves got hosed dealing Javy Vazquez for Melky Cabrera and two minor leaguers. I also know that Melky had his best season to date last year - 13 HRs and 28 2Bs - with a very good contact rate of 92%.

As a contrarian, I wonder if the 24-year-old Cabrera could surprise and produce a season of 15/75. His Hit Tracker data shows 8 of his 13 HRs headed towards the sweet spots of the new Yankees Stadium. I am not holding out as much hope as Barack Obama held out to his believers.

With a couple more years of control than the Yankees have with Vazquez, the Braves can win the trade if Melky manages to repeat his 2009 production, though.

Predicting The Future

Dave Cameron at Fangraphs:

"I would like to make a plea with anyone who plans on writing anything about how a team’s off-season has gone – please, please, please do not treat 2009 as a constant."

Decent advise assuming you have other tools and indicators to help understand what affects performance. With baseball moving towards defense, ask yourself if a team has added better defensive players when trying to predict pitching improvement.

Of course, there is so little data to make projections that one must use the previous season production as a foundation. By little data, I mean seasons as sample size.

MLB Trade Rumors: Matt Holliday To Mets?

Talking Baseball With Mets GM Omar Minaya - NY Sports Day

For whatever reason, my browswer didn't allow my to select text from the article that reports Omar Minaya saying the New York Mets are pursuing Matt Holliday. While I think it is a smart move - Holliday has never been portrayed as anything less than a consumate professional, I am curious how far Scott Boras reaches in playing offf the Mets and the Cardinals.

That aside, I am leaning towards the believe the Mets need a star who can deflect attention from David Wright. The spotlight may have been too much for the 3B last season.

Fantasy football is finished but for a few dying very hard leagues. I happen to play in one so there will be the occasional mention of the 2009 fantasy football season in the present tense.

That said, I found the results of an expert draft I did for the 2009 fantasy baseball season. With hindsight, I am curious to get opinions on how well I initially drafted.

Did I identify the types of sleepers in the later rounds who'd be considered top rounds draft picks by season's end? Did I identify those players in the middle rounds who did the same? Did I just embarass myself?

FWIW, I played in two mixed leagues and finished 1st in one and lost the second one thanks to absolutely shitty Yahoo! innings rules that allow a team to go over the stated limits as long as the team begins the day under the limit.

Round	OA	POS	Player	Team
R1	7	OF	Ryan Braun	MIL
R2	18	SS	Jimmy Rollins	PHI
R3	31	1B	Adrian Gonzalez	SD
R4	42	OF	Curtis Granderson	DET
R5	55	SP	Roy Halladay	TOR
R6	66	OF	Hunter Pence	HOU
R7	79	SP	Cliff Lee	CLE
R8	90	SS	Jhonny Peralta	CLE
R9	103	SP	Matt Cain	SF
R10	114	3B	Ryan Zimmerman	WAS
R11	127	OF	Torii Hunter	ANA
R12	138	RP	Jonathan Broxton	LA
R13	151	C	Chris Iannetta	COL
R14	162	2B	Jose Lopez	SEA
R15	175	1B	Pablo Sandoval	SF
R16	186	RP	Brian Wilson	SF
R17	199	SP	Andrew Sonnanstine	TB
R18	210	OF	Carlos Gomez	MIN
R19	223	SP	Wandy Rodriguez	HOU
R20	234	OF	Cameron Maybin	FLA
R21	247	RP	Chris Volstad	FLA
R22	258	C	Ramon Hernandez	CIN
R23	271	SP	Gil Meche	KC

MLB Trade Rumors: New York Mets, Jason Bay & Matt Holliday

Baseball Prospectus | On the Beat: Weekend Update:

"Free-agent outfielder Jason Bay appears to have no chance of topping the four-year, $65 million offer he received from the Mets, but is still hoping to sign the Mariners; returning to the Red Sox is his fallback option. … The Mets are considering pursuing free-agent left fielder Matt Holliday if Bay does not accept their offer soon."

I expect the Mets to make a ate push for Matt Holliday when they realize Jason Bay wants nothing to do with the organization that dealt him for Steve Reed and Jason Middlebrook in 2002.

Here is what Baseball America said about Bay it that trade's analysis:
"Bay, a 23-year-old outfielder, won the low Class A Midwest League batting title last year with a .362 average. A 22nd-round pick out of Gonzaga in 2000 by the Expos, he joined the Mets along with minor league righthander Jim Serrano in a March 26 trade for Lou Collier. In 102 games between Double-A Binghamton and high Class A St. Lucie in 2002, Bay has hit .272-13-73 with 34 steals in 39 attempts. He has some gap power and on-base skills, runs well for a 6-foot-2, 200-pounder and has a strong arm that's an asset in right field."

Championship Week: 10 Worst Run Defenses

Rush Rank	Team	RYA	Vs	Decision
32	Kansas City	265.3	@CIN	Start Cedric Benson
31	Detroit	181.3	@SF	Start Frank Gore
30	Buffalo	170	@ATL	Start Jason Snelling
29	Denver	166.5	@PHI	Start LeSean McCoy_Leonard Weaver
28	Tampa Bay	153.3	@NO	Start Pierre Thomas_Mike Bell
27	Arizona	137.3	STL	Start Steven Jackson
26	Chicago	135	MIN	Start Adrian Peterson
25	Carolina	126.7	@NYG	Start Ahmad Bradhsaw_Brandon Jacobs
24	Indianapolis	125.3	NYJ	Start Thomas Jones
23	Minnesota	118.7	@CHI	Start Matt Forte

MLB Trade Rumors: New York Mets #1 Target

MLB -- Buster Olney: New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals and Seattle Mariners are among the teams with money to spend on free agents - ESPN:

"They [New York Mets] need a left fielder and a front-line catcher, and Joel Pineiro is likely to be their No. 1 target in the market of starting pitchers."

As long as Piniero's groundball tendencies were a veteran maturation and not a dictat from Cardinals' pitching coach Dave Duncan (1.60 in 2009 around 1.00 in all other seasons), this looks like a very good plan for the Mets.

Championship Week: 10 Worst Pass Defenses

Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
32	New Orleans	321.3	TB	Start Antonio Bryant
31	NY Giants	296.3	CAR	Start Steve Smith
30	Seattle	291	@GB	Start Greg Jennings_Donald Driver
29	Cleveland	283.3	OAK	Start Louis Murphy?
28	Washington	281	DAL	Start Miles Austin_Roy Williams
27	San Diego	263	@TEN	Start Nate Washington
26	Atlanta	262.7	BUF	Start Terrell Owens
25	Green Bay	262	SEA	Start TJ Houshmandzadeh_Nate Burrelson
24	St. Louis	260.3	@AZ	Start Larry Fitzgerald_Anquan Boldin
23	Dallas	258.7	@WAS	Start Santana Moss

Championship Week: X-Mas Start/Sit

Merry Christmas!

Rush Rank	Team	RYA	Vs	Decision
21	San Diego	112.3	@TEN	Start Chris Johnson
10	Tennessee	99	SD	Sit LaDanian Tomlinson
Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
27	San Diego	263	@TEN	Start Nate Washington
22	Tennessee	256.3	SD	Start Vincent Jackson

Who Would You Keep?

An AL-Only, 4x4, $260, up to 14 protects, 23-man roster.

Pick two: 2B Dustin Pedroia at $34, OF Bobby Abreu at $35 or Miguel Cabrera at $49

A simple sort by 2009 HR totals shows the likely top hitters by power (HR/RBI) available at the draft.

1. Teixeira (39/122)
2. Jason Bay (36/119) If he signs in AL
3. Cabrera (34/103)
4. Nelson Cruz (33/76)
5. Justin Morneau (30/100) Can be protected at $38
6. Hank Blalock (25/66)If he signs in AL
7. Mike Cameron (25/70)

I was going to try for Top 10 but the point was driven home once Hank Blalock showed-up. Mike Cameron insured it was no fluke.

This was posted at Fake Teams two days ago with a poll.

MLB Trade Rumors: The Boston Red Sox Have How Much To Spend?!?!?

ESPN's Buster Olney on Jason Bay:

"One source indicated Wednesday night that the [Boston Red Sox] has less than $5 million in spending money. Short of blowing up their budget, the only way the Red Sox could work something out with Bay would be to find a way to dump some existing contracts, such as the newly signed Mike Cameron (who would have to lend his permission to such an arrangement)."

Someone is blowing smoke. Otherwise, the state of the baseball economy is teetering on collapse.

Championship Week: Top 10 Run Defenses

Good luck! Remember these ranks cover the last three games.

Rush Rank	Team	RYA	Vs	Decision
1	Green Bay	63.3	SEA	Sit Justin Forsett_Julius Jones
2	NY Giants	70.3	CAR	Sit DeAngelo Williams
3	Washington	78	DAL	Sit Marion Barber_Felix Jones
4	Dallas	79.3	@WAS	Sit Quentin Gather
5	NY Jets	84	@IND	Sit Joseph Addai
6	Houston	85.7	@MIA	Sit Ricky Williams
7	Seattle	90.7	@GB	Sit Ryan Grant
8	Jacksonville	91.7	@NE	Sit Laurence Maroney
9	Cincinnati	93.3	KC	Sit Jamaal Charles
10	Tennessee	99	SD	Sit LaDanian Tomlinson

How Does Arodys Vizcaino Compare?

Baseball America's Ben Badler Chat at ESPN.com:

"David (Queens, NY) In regards to the haul the phillies got for Cliff Lee, Would you say Atlanta got more for their ace Javy Vazquez?

Ben Badler (2:12 PM) Yes. I'd rather have Arodys Vizcaino than any of the prospects the Phillies got for Cliff Lee."

Make the Braves feel good, Ben. It won't change the fact Vizcaino will only be making his full-season debut in 2010.

MLB Trade Rumors: New York Yankees And LF

ESPN's Buster Olney: "One of the first questions in St. Louis was whether the Yankees' trade on Tuesday would mean that they are now in the market for a pricey bat, and the answer is no"

On MLB Home Plate yesterday, disgraced former GM of the Washington Nationals, Jim Bowden, positvely averred the Yankees will make an outfield signing before the Holidays are over. Whehter it is worth repeating ehre is debatable, but given how prescient Buster was yesterday morning, I figured it was worth putting out there.

Championship Week: Top 10 Pass Defenses

Good luck! Remember these are over the past three games.

Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
1	NY Jets	101.3	@IND	Sit Reggie Wayne
2	Kansas City	102.3	@CIN	Sit Chad OchoCinco
3	Buffalo	133	@ATL	Sit Roddy White
4	Cincinnati	152	KC	Sit Chris Chambers
5	Baltimore	160	@PIT	Sit Hines Ward
6	Denver	161	@PHI	Sit DeSean Jackson
7	Chicago	163	MIN	Sit Sydney Rice
8	Arizona	170.7	STL	Sit Donnie Avery
9	Tampa Bay	179.7	@NO	Sit Marques Colston
10	Houston	195	@MIA	Sit Devone Bess

MLB Trade Rumors: New York Yankees

Buster Olney mongers a Yankees rumor in the way bloggers get excoriated doing.

"And they are moving closer to a deal for somebody.

Who? As of 5 a.m. Tuesday, I'm not sure.

A free agent? The best of the remaining starters, Joel Pineiro and Vicente Padilla, figure to cost something in the range of $7 million to $10 million a year....There are the usual suspects of salary-dump players, like Derek Lowe of the Braves, or Aaron Harang, who the Yankees would've taken in a mid-summer deal with the Reds if Cincinnati hadn't stuck to its demand for big-time prospects. Javy Vazquez could be a fit, if the Yankees were willing to consider bringing back a player who failed with them before....The Yankees could also target some arbitration-eligible pitchers who would cost them good young players, like a Josh Johnson, John Danks or Jorge de la Rosa (to be clear, this is pure speculation, but these are the sort of pitchers that the Yankees typically go after). Maybe it's a second-tier arbitration-eligible pitcher, like Joe Blanton...."

MLB Trade Rumors: Matt Holliday

With Buster Olney taking today off, I had to work harder and go directly to the St. Louis Dispatch for an update on the Matt Holliday situation. The best I see is this:

"Boras is believed to be seeking an eight-year deal for Holliday, a length of contract some interested teams like Boston are reluctant to match. A source familiar with the talks said the Cardinals have not been resistant to a contract that could reach eight years."

8 years for a 30-year-old LF in the NL seems like something that won't be a major concern until the middle of the next decade. Is that too far in the future to worry about paying a 36-year-old $18MM per year for another three years?

Why Coco Crisp?

Fangraphs: "The A’s are reportedly on the verge of signing Coco Crisp to a one year, $5 million deal. Now, Crisp is a decent player – he’s racked up +15.7 WAR in 832 career games, averaging about 2.7 WAR per 600 plate appearances. He’s a very good defensive outfielder and has been about a league average hitter for most of his career. That’s a good combination."

Of course, no mention of his sucking last year.

My guess is the A’s will try to win without having to score runs. Their model must show that pitching and defense are 100% of the game.


We all know how wonderful models are now, don't we?

More Fantasy Baseball Expert Draft Analysis

To beat again upon the drum of fantasy experts drafting as a herd. Last week's 1st expert draft at Mock Draft Central gave fantasy baseball fans everywhere their 1st look at the expected draft values of last year's players.

While I profess no less expertise than the participants, I do consider myself to have merited the moniker of fantasy expert while at Fake Teams. Do I become less of one now that I don't write for public consumption nearly as much as I previously did?

Rhetorical question or not, I do recognize the tendency of the fantasy experts to herd together in their valuations for the 2010 season. Because of that (and other reasons), I have done a mock draft on my own prior to the release of the expert valuations into the blogosphere.

Here are the five players who the experts drafted in the 1st two rounds that I chose later than the 2nd round.

1. Carl Crawford
2. David Wright
3. Grady Sizemore
4. Jacoby Ellsbury
5. Brandon Phillips
6. Joey Votto

MLB Trade Rumors: Javier Vazquez To Los Angeles Angels

Boston Red Sox - Potential trade consequences can run deep - The Boston Globe:

"If the Braves can’t work out a deal with the Angels for Javier Vazquez, reportedly for outfielder Juan Rivera, Lowe could enter the picture instead. Lowe has three years and $45 million remaining on his contract. He acknowledged he didn’t pitch well last season, but he still won 15 games. Lowe may soon become the next big target for teams in need of a starter."

Wow. If the Braves are trying to deal Vazquez and failing to do so, the team isn't really interested in doing so. read: Asking for the sky.

Start Sit Larry Fitzgerald by Will Carroll

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Black and Blue Report: December 17, 2009:

"The Cards have hope and Fitzgerald has indicated he thinks he can play this week. The Cards have a good record of handling this type of situation and holding back players -- I'm looking at you, Anquan Boldin -- so the decision is going to be handled by the medical staff properly. It will also come very, very late so keep your options open."

After reading Stephania Bell's take and adding my snark, I thought Will Carroll's take was important. Note the comparison to the caution the Cardinals took with Anquan Boldin.

My snark about the fantasy football play-offs still applies.

Start Sit Larry Fitzgerald

Stephania Bell's Week 15 injury report: Fitzgerald, Vikes WRs iffy - ESPN:

"Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals, (Q): Fitzgerald's Monday night injury was not as serious as it originally appeared, and the Cardinals, along with Fitzgerald's fantasy owners, have to be relieved. Fitzgerald was back in practice on a limited basis all week and the biggest challenge the Cardinals faced was holding him back. Fitzgerald wants to play Sunday; it will be a medical decision as to whether he looks good enough in pregame warm-ups to go. There is the issue of playing on turf that might factor into how concerned the team is about Fitzgerald's being out there. Be sure to check the inactive list before kickoff but it looks like the Detroit Lions may have yet another reason to be nervous."

The semi-finals of the fantasy football play-offs and Fitzgerald offers yet another reason why so many hate the format - a juicy match-up where a star can disappoint thanks to injury.

MLB Trade Rumors: Jason Bay & New York #Mets

MLB -- Buster Olney -- Milton Bradley will get a fresh start with the Seattle Mariners; is this his last chance? - ESPN:
"Heard this: Internally, the Mets are convinced they are the lone big-money bidder on Bay. They continue to monitor the market on Matt Holliday, but to this point they have not made an offer.

The Mets' offer is still close to the four-year proposal it made last week, writes Anthony McCarron."

Does anyone remember when free agents where just given long-term deals? It wasn't that long ago. Now they are fighting for a 5th year.

Smarter owners? Scorched Earth by agents after years of lying?

MLB Trade Rumors: Matt Holliday To Boston Red Sox?

Derek Goold: Boston bid on Holliday? And other Baseball Beat Tweets | Cardinal Beat | STLtoday:

"Gammons, the Hall of Fame baseball writer, tweets:
Boston ecstatic with Lackey. Before he stepped foward, Sox offered 4x$15M to Bay and 5x$16.5 to Holliday.

Olney, a senior writer at ESPN Magazine, follows with his tweet:
Heard this: Before the Red Sox signed Lackey for $82.5 million, they offered $82.5 million to Holliday. Now they’re out on Holliday.

The search for the “mystery team” bidding on Holliday continues, with some indications that there is actually a second team courting the free-agent outfielder."

No way, no how Matt Holliday goes off the board around $80 MM. If so expect the New York Yankees to feel obligated to top that bid the same way you'd top a $15 bid for Derek Jeter in an AL-Only auction league. Just too good a value.

Start Sit Made Easier: 10 Worst Run Defenses

Rush Rank	Team	RYA	Vs	Decision
32	Buffalo	186	NE	Start Laurence Maroney
31	Kansas City	179.7	CLE	Start Jerome Harrison_Chris Jennings
30	Detroit	169	AZ	Start Tim Hightower_Beanie Wells
29	Carolina	159.3	MIN	Start Adrian Peterson
28	St. Louis	150	HOU	Start Ryan Moats_Chris Brown
27	Chicago	146.7	@BAL	Start Ray Rice
26	Oakland	142.3	DEN	Start Knowshon Moreno
25	Arizona	138	@DET	Start Beanie Wells_Tim Hightower
24	Pittsburgh	137.3	GB	Start Ryan Grant
23	Tampa Bay	135.7	@SEA	Start Justin Forsett_Julius Jones

HitTracker :: Nick Johnson

HitTracker :: Player and Field Detail: "2009 Season Home Runs for Johnson, Nick"

A click through to the link shows six of Nick Johnson's 8 2009 HRs going to RF. Of those, 2/3s went to what is the sweet spot of the New Yankees Stadium. While Curits Granderson gets lots of hype about his new hitting environment, he can't be expected to do much better than the 30 he hit last season.

However, one could see Johnson doubling his 2009 HR output assuming his HRs from 2009 are representative of the direction of his batted balls. With 15 HRs and a .300 AVG, Nick Johnson would provide considerable upside from his draft position (undrafted).

MLB Trade Rumors: Matt Holliday

ShareThis: "But Holliday has indicated to St. Louis teammates that he really wants to return to the Cardinals. And the Cardinals have made a very good offer. So if things get close — if the Cardinals grow impatient and threaten to move onto other options — will Holliday take charge of his own career and life? Or will he end up like Andy Benes in 1997?"

Eight and $16MM gets Matt Holliday into Barry Zito money. Is there any team in need of a power-hitting LFer with the flexibility to pay that much?

The New York Mets should have it, but Jason pay at half the dollars seems to be their preference.

How about the Los Angeles Angels? Vlad Guerrero just came off the book. But his deal was only $75MM or so over five years.

Anyone else or does it seem like Holliday will be a Cardinal for most of the second decade of the 21st century?

Start Sit Made Easier: 10 Worst Pass Defenses

Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
32	Seattle	306.3	TB	Start Antonio Bryant
31	New Orleans	304.7	DAL	Start Miles Austin_Roy Williams
30	NY Giants	303.7	@WAS	Start Santana Moss
29	New England	291.3	@BUF	Start Terrell Owens
28	Philadelphia	278	SF	Start Michael Crabtree
27	Washington	276	NYG	Start Steve Smith_Hakeem Nicks
26	Atlanta	272.7	@NYJ	Start Braylon Edwards_Jerricho Cotchery
25	Detroit	261.3	AZ	Start Larry Fitzgerald_Anquan Boldin
24	Indianapolis	256.3	@JAX	Start Mike Sims-Walker
23	Oakland	254.3	DEN	Start Brandon Marshalll

MLB Trade Rumors: Derek Lowe

"One possibility could be to consider Derek Lowe, who's being made available by the Braves. The Angels could consider trading Juan Rivera to the Braves for Lowe, then think about signing Bay to replace Rivera"

Seems like a good get for the Los Angeles Angels. I don't think either player's fantasy value would change much.

Rivera would remain a solid value pick, and Lowe would still have to deal with the doubts about his ability to rebound effectively from a disappointing 2009 season.

Expert Mock Draft

Fantasy Baseball League Draft - Live! MDC Fantasy Baseball Expert Draft: "League Draft: Live! MDC Fantasy Baseball Expert Draft"

FWIW, the herd will begin valuing players now. Looks like David Wright will only be slightly discounted from his 2008 levels (ADP around 5) to early 2nd round pick.

Fortunately, I have drafted seven rounds of players and will be immune to the herd thinking at least that far into a mock draft.

MLB Trade Rumors: Which Red Sox Is More Valuable Than Adrian Gonzalez?

ShareThis: "Obviously, we are sensing the proverbial next shoe is about to drop. If it is Adrian Gonzalez (with an outside shot at Miguel Cabrera), which would be a ginormous move by the Red Sox to cap what would be an eye-popping offseason, then what is there not to like? Well, one thing: if one of the players going to San Diego is Jacoby Ellsbury."

Absolutely crazy. This is a firable offense. Ellsbury at 26 is a year younger than the 40-HR Gonzalez.

I can't think the writer thought of this himself. He has to be acting as a mouthpiece for the Red Sox front office in an effort to negotiate via public relations.

Start Sit Made Easier: Top 10 Run Defenses

Rush Rank	Team	RYA	Vs	Decision
1	Green Bay	66	@PIT	Sit Rashard Mendenhall
2	Cincinnati	76.7	@SD	Sit LaDanian Tomlinson
3	NY Jets	80.3	ATL	Sit Jason Snelling
4	Washington	81	NYG	Sit Ahmad Bradhsaw_Brandon Jacobs
5	Tennessee	83.7	MIA	Sit Ricky Williams
5	Seattle	83.7	TB	Sit Cadillac Williams
7	NY Giants	86.7	@WAS	Sit Quentin Gather
8	Jacksonville	88.7	IND	Sit Joseph Addai
9	Atlanta	90.3	@NYJ	Sit Thomas Jones
10	Minnesota	91.7	@CAR	Sit DeAngelo Williams_Jonathan Stewart

MLB Trade Rumors: Boston Red Sox & Adrian Gonzalez

John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus reports:

"The Red Sox are again pursuing Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez in a trade, but they would have to give up right-hander Clay Buchholz and top pitching prospect Casey Kelly to make a deal."

Maybe it is the lack of prospect worship on my part, but I can't see how the Red Sox don't acquire AGonz at that price barring the fact the Red Sox have not shown the proclivity towards dealing their top prospects for elite major league talent.

Start Sit Made Easier: The Top 10 Pass Defenses

Looks like a bad time to be in the qaurter finals fo the fantasy football play-offs for the owners of elite WRs.

Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
1	NY Jets	84.3	ATL	Sit Roddy White
2	Buffalo	150.7	NE	Sit Randy Moss_Wes Welker
3	Cincinnati	153	@SD	Sit Vincent Jackson
4	Minnesota	167.3	@CAR	Sit Steve Smith
5	Tampa Bay	169.7	@SEA	Sit TJ Houshmandzadeh_Nate Burrelson
5	St. Louis	169.7	HOU	Sit Andre Johnson
7	Green Bay	171	@PIT	Sit Hines Ward
8	Denver	174	OAK	Sit Louis Murphy?
9	Baltimore	175.7	CHI	Sit Devan Hester
10	Kansas City	191	CLE	Sit Mohamed Massaquoi

Fantasy Baseball John Lackey Value

The Red Sox give Lackey AJ Burnett money. Think the Sox get 30+ starts? If not, Lackey will be over valued.

In mixed formats, Lackey is a 9th rounder plus one round/minus two rounds.

Start Sit: Tom Brady

Stephania Bell's Week 14 injury report: Questionable QBs - ESPN:

"There is little doubt that Tom] Brady will play Sunday, but there is some question as to how healthy (and therefore effective) he will be. Given the fact that Brady played throughout last week's game, despite likely suffering the injury during the contest, it would seem that Brady should not be too challenged this week. But rib injuries can be delicate in that another shot to the same area could be enough to force him out, or at least hinder his effectiveness. Rib injuries can also make throwing and twisting less comfortable, progressively so as fatigue sets in or following repeated contact. Brady's protection Sunday could be the primary factor toward determining not only how he performs but how long he lasts."

If you have Brady, you're stuck starting him in Week One of the fantasy football play-offs. If he struggles and you lose, you will recall why so many people who play fantasy football think of it as little more than luck.

Start Sit: Mike Sims-Walker

Missing practice on Thursday and Friday has sent the Jags top WR to my bench in favor of Matt Forte. It pained me to do so against the big play allowing Miami secondary.

MLB Trade Rumors: Matt Holliday

MLB -- Buster Olney -- Roy Halladay, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay … There's plenty of unfinished winter meetings business - ESPN:

"The Cards made an offer to Matt Holliday for less than $18 million per year, writes Joe Strauss, and they want an answer by early in the week.

If they're bluffing about their hard line, then the Cardinals are showing an excellent poker face, but executives with other teams are convinced that St. Louis isn't going to create a problem for itself by giving Holliday more money than what they're paying Albert Pujols now. We'll see."

Sounds about right. Pujols is going to see Alex Rodriguez money.

Start Sit Made Easier: Ten Worst Pass Defenses and 10 Worst Run Defenses

Good luck with your fantasy play-offs. May you season not ride on a fluky start/sit decision.

Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
32	Kansas City	300.3	BUF	Start Terrell Owens
31	Cleveland	299.3	PIT	Start Hines Ward
30	Atlanta	296.7	NO	Start Marques Colston
29	NY Giants	292	PHI	Start DeSean Jackson_Jason Avant
28	Detroit	284	@BAL	Start Derrick Mason
27	Seattle	275	@HOU	Start Andre Johnson
26	Washington	272.7	@OAK	Start Louis Murphy?
25	New England	272.3	CAR	Start Steve Smith
24	Arizona	271	@SF	Start Michael Crabtree
23	San Francisco	257.3	AZ	Start Larry Fitzgerald_Anquan Boldin
Rush Rank	Team	RYA	Vs	Decision
32	Buffalo	169.3	@KC	Start Jamaal Charles
31	Oakland	168	WAS	Start Rock Cartwright
30	St. Louis	157.7	@TEN	Start Chris Johnson
29	Kansas City	151	BUF	Start Fred Jackson_Marshawn Lynch
28	Chicago	150.3	GB	Start Ryan Grant
27	Houston	149.7	SEA	Start Justin Forsett
26	Carolina	149	@NE	Start Laurence Maroney
25	Tampa Bay	138.3	NYJ	Start Thomas Jones
24	Miami	135.7	@JAX	Start Maurice Jones-Drew
23	Indianapolis	120.7	DEN	Start Knowshon Moreno

Start Sit Made Easier: Ten Best Rush Defenses

Rush Rank	Team	RYA	Vs	Decision
1	Minnesota	53.3	CIN	Sit Cedric Benson
2	Jacksonville	57.7	MIA	Sit Ricky Williams
3	Green Bay	69.3	@CHI	Sit Matt Forte
4	Tennessee	73.3	STL	Sit Steven Jackson
5	Denver	75.5	@IND	Sit Joseph Addai
6	Cincinnati	76.7	@MIN	Sit Adrian Peterson
7	Atlanta	88	NO	Sit Pierre Thomas_Mike Bell
8	Philadelphia	89.7	@NYG	Sit Ahmad Bradhsaw_Brandon Jacobs
9	NY Giants	91	PHI	Sit LeSean McCoy
10	Dallas	100.7	SD	Sit LaDanian Tomlinson

Start Sit Made Easier: Ten Best Pass Defenses

Recall these rankings are over the past three games.

Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
1	Cincinnati	146.7	@MIN	Sit Sydney Rice
2	Buffalo	152.7	@KC	Sit Chris Chambers
3	NY Jets	157	@TB	Sit Antonio Bryant
4	St. Louis	161.3	@TEN	Sit Nate Washington
5	Denver	169	@IND	Sit Reggie Wayne
6	Green Bay	177.7	@CHI	Sit Devan Hester
7	Houston	186.7	SEA	Sit TJ Houshmandzadeh_Nate Burrelson
8	Tampa Bay	187	NYJ	Sit Braylon Edwards_Jerricho Cotchery
9	San Diego	194.3	@DAL	Sit Miles Austin_Roy Williams
10	Philadelphia	204.3	@NYG	Sit Steve Smith_Hakeem Nicks

MLB Trade Rumors: New York Yankees & Curtis Granderson

#3960: "Arizona acquires right-handers Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy while the Yankees pick up centerfielder Curtis Granderson. Detroit receives right-hander Max Scherzer, left-handers Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth and outfield prospect Austin Jackson."

The big winner of this trade is the Detroit Tigers. In firesale mode, they land a less expensive SP, two relievers in the 0-3 price range and a top CF prospect.

The loser is the New York Yankees. They traded Austin Jackson, Phil Coke, and Ian Kennedy for a player who cannot hit left-hander pitching. However, the team must be praying 2009 was an aberration and not a screaming signal of a permanent decline against left-handers. 183/249/239 in 183 ABs against lefties....Well, at least he should hit 20+ HRs with the short right-center porch.

Finally, the Arizona Diamonbacks must have felt Ian Kennedy was worth the extra money to be paid to Edwin Jackson in arbitration. Something of a head scratcher though.

Fantasy Baseball Draft: Rounds 5&6

Click here to get to rounds 1-4 results.

OA	Player	Roster
49	Kevin Youkilis	3B
50	Joey Votto	1B
51	Adam Wainwright	SP2
52	Felix Hernandez	SP1
53	Javier Vazquez	SP2
54	Lance Berkman	1B
55	Kendry Morales	1B
56	Jon Lester	SP2
57	Gordham Beckham	3B
58	Dan Haren	SP1
59	Cliff Lee	SP1
60	Matt Wieters	C
61	Derek Lee	1B
62	Dustin Pedroia	2B
63	Bobby Abreu	OF2
64	Mariano Rivera	CL1
65	Joe Nathan	CL1
66	Michael Bourn	OF3
67	Clayton Kershaw	SP1
68	Raul Ibanez	OF1
69	Adam Dunn	1B
70	Andrew McCutchen	OF1
71	Josh Johnson	SP2
72	Jonathan Broxton	CL1

Fantasy Baseball: Is Derek Jeter The Best AL SS?

By HRs in 2009, Derek Jeter is the top AL-Only SS. Thrown-in 30 SBs and an AVG over .300, and Jeter easily becomes the top SS in AL-only formats. The question that needs to be answered is whether the 35-year-old can repeat his 2009 performance in 2010.

FWIW, Jeter finished 4th overall amongst SS qualifiers in HRs according to ESPN. Hell, Ronny Cedeno's 10 HRs ranks him 12th!

SS is a shallow position with little breakout potential after Stephen Drew.

Week 14 Waiver Wire: 2010 Sleeper and WTF Edition

RB Shonn Greene, New York Jets: How the heck is Thomas Jones defying his RB age? For play-off bpound teams, I'd stash him in case Jones' fountian of youth goes dry at the most inopportune time for his owner.

QB Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins: Order up my #6 Miami Dolphins jersey! And if the QB is relevent, then he must have a receiver worth rostering. Devone Best: a dread-locked Wes Welker.

WR Pierre Garcons, Indianapolis Colts: I know he isn't available, but take a look at 2010's top fantasy sleeper at WR. Or as sleeper-y as a player likely to go int the 3rd or 4th round can be.

RB Philadelphia Eagles: Leonard Weaver and Evra Buckley get an equal share of touches with LeSean McCoy?!?! That is why many are glad fantasy football is over! Yeah, and I'll toss in a WTF for Mike Bell getting 16 carries to Pierre Thomas' 6 in New orleans!

WR Devin Thomas, Washignton Redskins: 7 and 100 with a TD just as the fantasy football season ends for non-play-off teams. Maybe he is going to be the real fantasy sleeper at WR. 3rd year WR in 2010.

MLB Trade Rumors: Boston Red Sox

Baseball Prospectus | On the Beat: Pre-Winter Meetings Shopping Lists: "They would be willing to part with right-hander Clay Buchholz in a trade for Halladay, [Adrian] Gonzalez, or [Miguel] Cabrera. The Red Sox would also deal first baseman Casey Kotchman and right-handers Manny Delcarmen, and Daisuke Matsuzaka. The only untouchable in the farm system is pitcher/shortstop Casey Kelly."

If only Miguel Cabrera didn't blow a .26, he'd be a perfect fit for the Red Sox to buy low on. The Detroit Tigers are struggling economically. Cabrera is signed to a very expensive deal and has body issues.

Start Sit Made Easier: The 10 Worst Run Defenses

Rush Rank	Team	RYA	Vs	Decision
32	St. Louis	185.3	@CHI	Start Matt Forte
31	Oakland	161.3	@PIT	Start Rashard Mendenhall
30	Carolina	156.3	TB	Start Cadillac Williams
29	Tampa Bay	152.3	@CAR	Start DeAngelo Williams
28	Arizona	150	MIN	Start Adrian Peterson
27	Miami	144.3	NE	Start Laurence Maroney
26	Buffalo	142.3	NYJ	Start Thomas Jones
25	Chicago	142	STL	Start Steven Jackson
24	Houston	138	@JAX	Start Maurice Jones-Drew
23	Cleveland	133.7	SD	Start LaDanian Tomlinson

Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

No real surprise here, but 3B/OF Jake Fox, now of the Oakland A's, is a mixed league sleeper. The ease with which sluggers hit 20+ HRs no longer exists in the form most fantasy players have become accustomed to assuming.

As a result, Fox's 11 HRs 216 ABs in 2008 means he should easily surpass 20 HRswith a season's full of ABs. As long as he avoid a Jack Custian sub-.240 AVG, he will have value in mixed formats.

FWIW, 30 players hit 30 or more HRs in 2008. 77 hit 20-29. The math in standard mixed leagues: 12 teams with 13 hitters equals 156 players. In 10-team leagues, that is still 130 hitters.

Start Sit Made Easier: Ten Worst Pass Defenses

Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
32	Detroit	330	@CIN	Start Chad OchoCinco
30	San Francisco	298	@SEA	Start TJ Houshmandzadeh_Nate Burrelson
30	Indianapolis	298	TEN	Start Nate Washington
29	Arizona	289.3	MIN	Start Sydney Rice
28	Seattle	287.3	SF	Start Michael Crabtree
27	Kansas City	274.3	DEN	Start Brandon Marshalll
26	Atlanta	269.3	PHI	Start DeSean Jackson_Jason Avant
25	New England	268.3	@MIA	Start Devone Bess
24	San Diego	253	@CLE	Start Mohamed Massaquoi
23	Jacksonville	244.7	HOU	Start Andre Johnson

Fantasy Baseball: Placido Polanco

Twitter / Jon Heyman: #phillies expected to fina ...: "#phillies expected to finalize deal for polanco (believed to be $18 mil for 3 years) to play 3B today."

Polanco's 2010 fantasy value improves based on three points:
1. He retians 2B eligibility
2. He will obtain 3B eligibility
3. He will hit in a stronger line-up albeit batting 7th. The RBI opportunities should be as good despite line-up drop.

Start Sit Made Easier: Top 10 Run Defenses

FWIW, I'd start RBs Fred Jackson and Thomas Jones and sit WRs Terrell Owens, Jerricho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards.

Rush Rank	Team	RYA	Vs	Decision
1	Minnesota	46.7	@AZ	Sit Tim Hightower_Beanie Wells
2	Green Bay	67.7	BAL	Sit Ray Rice
3	Jacksonville	71.7	HOU	Sit Steve Slaton
4	Tennessee	73.7	@IND	Sit Joseph Addai
5	Cincinnati	75.7	DET	Sit Kevin Smith
6	San Diego	86	@CLE	Sit Jamal Lewis
7	Pittsburgh	87	OAK	Sit Justin Fargas
8	NY Giants	87.3	DAL	Sit Tashard Choice_Marion Barber_Felix Jones
9	San Francisco	99	@SEA	Sit Justin Forsett
10	Dallas	102.3	@NYG	Sit Danny Ware_Brandon Jacobs

MLB Trade Rumors: New York Yankees Have Best For Halladay

From Joel Sherman at the NY Post:
"Yankees officials have spoken to their Toronto counterparts enough to know they have prospects capable of landing Roy Halladay and that the Blue Jays will not trade their ace without giving them a chance to make the best offer."

The implication is clear - the New York Yankees have more of what the Toronto Blue Jays want than any other team in the Halladay sweepstakes. C/LF/DH/1B or whatever position Jesus Montero eventually plays in late 2010/early 2011 leads the potential package.

Fantasy Baseball: 2010's Matt Weiters

From Buster Olney at ESPN.com:

"The Indians have alternatives at catcher, so rather than pay Kelly Shoppach $3 million for 2010 -- a rebuilding year -- it makes more sense for them to play Lou Marson, and to continue to develop star prospect Carlos Santana, who could be in the big leagues by the middle of next season."

Exactly. Whilst rookie Lou Marson does his best Mike Redmond impersonation, Carlos Santana will have fantasy players salivating for the next great catching prospect. The issues will be whether Santana garners the hype that Wieters did and whether he fails to live up to it once he is recalled.

Start Sit Made Easier: The Top 10 Pass Defenses

Good luck if you need to win this week. For the rest of us, fantasy baseball 2010 can't get here quick enough.

Pass Rank	Team	PYA	Vs	Decision
1	Cincinnati	163	DET	Sit Calvin Johnson
2	Baltimore	172.7	@GB	Sit Greg Jennings_Donald Drive
3	Denver	177.5	@KC	Sit Chris Chambers
4	Minnesota	179.3	@AZ	Sit Larry Fitzgerald_Anquan Boldin
5	Carolina	180	TB	Sit Antonio Bryant
6	St. Louis	191	@CHI	Sit Devan Hester
7	Tampa Bay	194.7	@CAR	Sit Steve Smith
8	Miami	195.3	NE	Sit Randy Moss_Wes Welker
8	Buffalo	195.3	NYJ	Sit Braylon Edwards_Jerricho Cotchery
10	Philadelphia	197	@ATL	Sit Roddy White

2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft: Rounds 3 & 4

Last week, I posted Rounds 1 & 2. There are clear issues that make the 2010 drafts different from the commonly-held draft strategies of the past. With four rounds posted, you should be able to gleen what they are.

A note about my methods. The one fact often ignored by rankings is the fact, irrefutable, that a team's selection in one round influences the selections in the subsequent ones. If a team selects a SS in the 1st round, the team won't select another one in the 2nd round even if that player is the highest ranked one available.

Any rankings worth using should account for this. otherwise, you will come away from your draftn thinking the rankings were useless.

OA	Player	Roster
25	Derek Jeter	SS
26	Ryan Zimmerman	3B
27	Adrian Gonzalez	1B
28	Grady Sizemore	OF1
29	Jimmy Rollins	SS
30	Brian Roberts	2B
31	Pablo Sandoval	3B
32	Justin Morneau	1B
33	Brandon Phillips	2B
34	David Wright	3B
35	Carl Crawford	OF1
36	Roy Halladay	SP1
37	Jayson Werth	OF1
38	Jason Bay	OF2
39	Carlos Lee	OF1
40	Nelson Cruz	OF2
41	Chone Figgins	3B
42	Jacoby Ellsbury	OF2
43	Adam Lind	OF2
44	Brian McCann	C
45	Victor Martinez	C
46	CC Sabathia	SP1
47	BJ Upton	OF1
48	Robinson Cano	2B