San Diego Padres

Ryan Klesko is reported to be swinging with more authority than last season when he hit a staggeringly low 9 HR in 402 ABs.

I have no doubt that he, along with Sean Burroughs, will increase their power production (as would have Jay Payton if he had remained.)

Why? Because all three had numbers so low that I concluded they had an unusually bad year. The idea that bad years are followed by better ones is not unusual in Roto thinking. (As one site claims Roy halladay to be a sleeper for this reason.)

Usually, Roto players do this intra-season. A generic example is trading for second-half players. The team doing this hopes the bad first half will be offset by a better second half which pulls the player up to his career averages. When you deal for a Derek Jeter hitting .200 in May only to see him hit .350 the rest of the way and finish near .300, this is what you are doing.

Applying this on a season basis is a little less common but entirely justifiable.

What Roto players tend to forget is this concept works both ways. Not only from bad to better but from better to worse. Paul LoDuca is the classic second half fader.

But when applying it to season, Roto players tend to think players having great seasons have set a new baseline for performance. This is false, and the smart Roto player will take advantage of this Roto irrationality.

This brings me to the Padres and Petco Park. Two hitters in particular look to have had very good years despite playing 82 at an avowed pitcher's park and another 18 in LA and SF. That is 100 games in notorious pitcher's parks.

The hitters are Phil Nevin, whose season was great as was Ramon Hernandez's year, who accomplished his in fewer than 400 ABs.

Nevin's performance (26/105/.289) ranked up there with the career peaks he set back in 2000 and 2001 (the peak of performance enhancement?) in a less-pitcher friendly environment. The idea that he'd match those three years later defies logic.

Ramon Hernandez matched the numbers (18/61/.276) he had in Oakland, but in 100 fewer ABs. He played the fewest games he had over the past five seasons. With his position, this is a clear sign that he could be breaking down. Combine with his high production last season, the signs point towards a less successive season albeit it one that still holds value in NL-only leagues.