Tuesday, November 22, 2005

Hanley Ramirez

With the latest Boston robbery of a top starting pitcher (the first being Schilling two off-seasons ago), a little more due diligence should have been paid to Hanley Ramirez.

He has never hit more than 8 HR in any minor league season, and that one time was in 2003! He hit 6 in the next two years. Not exactly an upward trend.

With a minor leaguer, occasionally doubles are predictive of furture power. In 2003, he hit 24. The next two seasons' totals were 15 and 21.

How about AVG? He hit .352 in 2002 and slugged about .540. A hyped prospect was born! In 2003, he only hit .275 and slugged .403. While he did have career highs in 2B and HR, they were not reflected positively in his SLG because he received 160 more ABs.

In 2004, he got his AVG to .310 against better competition and raised his SLG to .432, but still a long way from his 2002 numbers. But he followed that with a worse 2005, hitting .271 and slugging .385.

His SB success rate has also trended similiarly 57% to 73% to 71% to 67%. Basically, flat to negative.

(Yes, I know I did not have great things to say about Beckett but "top starting pitching" is relative and defined within the context of 4x4 Rotisserie where Scot Shields is more valuable than the vast majority of starting pitchers

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