Monday, November 28, 2005

Resetting contracts

With fully-valued players eligible to be signed to a long-term contract does it make sense to throw them back into the pool to reset the contract?

A clever answer would be "yes." As the player is already fully-valued, you can assume he won't go for much more than a $1 or $2. True, he'd be more expensive, but the ability to control that player for an additional two years would make up for that.

The risk of doing this is plenty. The main risk is you will not get the player back. After all, a fully-valued player has already been recognized twice as such (once at a draft and the following year as a keeper), and therefore, 11 other teams can be expected to know about him. If you do not get the player, then acquiring him via trade will be costly. $30+ players are not sold cheaply!

In a keeper league, this will be especially true as the pool of top-flight players will be limited and cause the player in question to be easily recognized.

The second risk is something goes wrong with your plan and the player goes for $5 or so more. All of a sudden a $34 Eric Chavez is $39. True, his contract is reset, but in no way is he worth $39. Now he is going right back into the pool the following season - a de facto last-year contract.

There is also an opportunity risk in leaving a slot open to get this player back. By doing so, you may lose out on the opportunity to draft a player going for less than you thought or one that you project will have a breakout year. (My guess is this occurs most frequently with the DH spot, but could occur anywhere on the roster.)

After this brief examination, I would say to keep the fully-valued player and let him ride out his contract. You can then "reset" it the following year.

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