Saturday, December 31, 2005

2006 NL Trend

Last season saw the emergence of the new crop of pitching studs. This season, the new crop of catching studs will become apparent.

In Atlanta, Brian McCann takes over full-time after making the jump from AA to the majors - at 21-years-old. In another situation that makes the NL East feel the Braves have the blessings of a higher power, one of the top Braves prospects is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a catcher with power and plate discipline

Forida's firesale has provided Josh Willingham the opportunity to play significant innings behind the plate (definition: making enough appearances to qualify at catcher for the 2007 season.) The team also signed Miguel Olivo who should finally get the chance to show that speed he displayed, and the reason Roto owners have been waiting added him to their team, since his AA season in 2002 when he stole 29. Remember, despite this unfulfilled expectation, he has stolen 6, 7, and 7 bases the past three seasons. Matching that would make him more valuable than a $1 end-of-draft filler.

Speaking of that, the Mets' Ramon Castro should be an excellent 2nd catcher. His exposure will remain similar to last season where he out-performed the Mets latest catching edition, Paul LoDuca:

Castro: 29 years-old 209 ABs 8 HR 41 RBI .244 AVG .321 OBP .435 SLG
LoDuca: 34 years-old 445 ABS 6 HR 57 RBI .283 AVG .334 OBP .380 SLG

St. Louis saw 23-year-old Yadier Molina adequately replaced the offensive production of the pre-SF Matt Matheny.

Pitsburgh has Humberto Cota who matched the aforementioned @005 goodie, Damian Miller, in his first extended playing time. Ryan Doumit was also impressive in his first call-up last season.

The Dodgers Dioner Navarro did well last season as a 22-year-old in his (this should be familiar) first extended playing time as a major leaguer. And right behind him is the player Billy Beane had hoped Jeremy Brown would have been, Russ Martin (.311 AVG, .430 OBP in 409 official ABs).

Colorado dealt a Rule 5 pick for Yorvit Torrealba. He seems to have been bouncing around forever, but he is only 27 years old. Colorado should make him a decent #1 catcher come draft day. Because of this, he is likely to be the most over-valued, too. Think JD Closser, who may improve with more carefully managed ABs.

What this means is there is reason to enter next year's draft needing to draft a catcher or two because there should be equivalent production in the pool as that being protected (Jason LaRue, Paul Loduca, Mike Lieberthal, Damian Miller, Michael Barrett, Brian Schneider). It also means one of these young receivers will be cheap and result in good bail bait later in the season.

Javier Valentin did not make this list because he is already 30-years-old, but I like him as a very good 2nd catcher, and if he repeats his 2005 numbers, a #1. However, he is stuck behind Jason LaRue and cannot be reasonably be expected to get many more ABs than he did last year - severally limiting his upside potential.

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