Coors Strategy

With a weakened Rockie's lineup and some good pitching performances from visiting teams' starters (Freddy Garcia and Jose Contreras, Mulder and Marquis), one may be asking if it is OK to start middling pitchers when they are in Coors.

The reason to even address this question is it had been axiomatic that you never started any of your pitchers in Coors if it could be avaoided. That meant leaving a SP in the pool if his next scheduled start was in Coors or dealing a pitcher whose next start was in Coors. An obviously, it meant not having any Rockies starters and as few relievers as allowable (the closer and his clear back-up being an exception.)

In a year when the implementation of a tough steroid policy has coincided with an increase in quality SP lines and lowered run production, one time-tested Roto strategy has appeared to lose its luster (LIMA), has the Coors one has also fallen?

I do not believe so - at least not yet. There are still 100+ games left in the 162-game season, and the weather has just spiked upward in the northeast (along with Randy Johnson's MPH on his fastball.)

Let's get to the end of the month before anyone seriously considers changing a ratio-protecting strategy that has existed as long as Coors Field has.

For me, I refuse to abandon it. Here is why.

Tim Harikkala began the 2004 season with 10 hitless and unscored-upon innings with only three bases-on-balls over the first 5 weeks. No doubt this converted someone and bam! His next three appearances covered two innings with four earned runners and six hits.

He finished May with a very respectable 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 17 innings. No doubt this converted another team who found him in the pool after the prior convert refound his way and waived him.

However, the month of June rewarded convert #2 and possibly others who would not get him due to lingering doubts about a Coors pitcher but no longer doubted the intelligence of convert #2. Especialliy considering the nightmare ratios the current closer, Shawn Chacon had. His ERA at Juen's end stood at 2.61 and WHIP was 1.10.

With a half-season of excellent Roto numbers, Harikkala had bought some patience from his owner so when he gave-up 5 ER in 2 IP over a two-appearance span in the middle of the month, panic would not have set in. A couple more scorelss appearance by July's-end, and any recent jitters were calmed. His season-to-date ERA was 3.34 and WHIP 1.14.

He continued to make his three-toed sloth's handful of doubting owners seem dumb by pitching an additional five scoreless appearances covering 8 2/3 innings with only 5 runners.

On August 24th, he gave-up 2 ER and 5 hits on the road. A few days later, he gave-up a couple more ERs in Florida, and he ended August with an ERA of 3.43 and a WHIP of 1.15. Excellent numbers and Chacon's ratios were horrendous.

Then the stretch run of September arrived, and Tim H. rewarded his owner with three scoreless innings over two appearances in SF and SD. By now, he had proven to be a reliever who could be a Roto asset while wearing the purple-and-silver of the Colorado Rockies and could be considered a decent filler in any trade.

With his lowered ERA of 3.26 and WHIP of 1.10, he returned to Coors. In three appearances spanning 6 days, he allowed 12 runners and nine earned runs in one total inning. Boom! Any close races in ratios were destroyed.

He did not pitch for 10 days afterwards, and his final five appearances covered five innings with four earned runs and six runners allowed.

This adds to 6 IP, 13 ER and 18 runners in the final three weeks of the season.

While no team can foresee which reliever will explode after pitching so well for 5.25 months, one could have easily avoided these ratio-killing stretch run numbers by never believing in a Coors reliever.