Tuesday, July 04, 2006

Ask Rotomusing

Q7: ray g asks, "Can I get your opinion on this deal made in my NL-only, non-keeper, 12-team league?

Team A in 4th place, 1.5 points out of 3rd (I am in 3rd), 4.5 points out of 2nd, and about 14.5 out of 1st. Team B-8th place, 11 points out of 5th place

Here's the deal:
Team A trades:
Prince Fielder
Chris Snyder
Wandy Rodriguez

to Team B for:
Sean Casey
Paul Loduca
Derek Lowe

IMHO-Team A made out like a bandit, and I have NO idea what Team B is thinking. Your thoughts are appreciated"

A: Rotomusing responds,

"Thanks for the email.

In a keeper league, this looks exactly like a bail trade. Team A sends Prince Fielder to Team B for three everyday players.

However, you write this is a non-keeper league, and I agree that is looks like a steal for Team A.

I will caution that Sean Casey is day-to-day right now and still must deal with any after effects of his broken back, and Paul LoDuca isn't all that good anyhow and has a reputation of seriously breaking down post-ASB.

If those two factors are allowed into the equation, then the deal begins to approach the gray area where anything can happen i.e Chris Snyder stays hot and hits 5 HR and out-HRs LoDuca while Wandy recovers somewhat to his early season form to partially negate Derek lowe's performance.

In which case, Team A wouldn't net quite as much as one would expect. However, my experience has taught me that that level of analysis is usually missing in trades, and Team A believes he made out like a bandit."

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