Yesterday, I quoted a comment about the Football Outsider Alamanac 2009 that took FO to task for failing to uncover predictive statistical info. This morning, this criticism seems premature.
One of the newer metrics being used in fantasy football analysis is catch rate - the number of receptions a receiver has as a percent of his total targets. What FO has found is the right place to place the blame for low and high catch rates.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Football Outsiders Almanac 2009:
Catch rate has more to do with team- and quarterback-related variables than it does with the 'hands' of a wide receiver.
Acquiring a player because he had a good catch rate or +/- in a particular scheme does not mean that he's likely to perform as well in your scheme.
If a player has a +/- far better or worse than the players around him, though, you should expect some of that ability (or lack thereof) to stick in a new spot.
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