Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Where Did All The Power Go In Fantasy Baseball?

Nowhere apparently. Below are the number of players who fall into the range of HRs. Using 30 or more HRs are a gauge of a drop in elite HR totals shows very little change.

However, 2008 looks like there was a drop in power at the lower ends. Given fantasy teams count on findign cheap power to fill out the ends of their roster, a drop in the 11-19 HRs range would fit with the perception of there being less power in the game now.

HR>=30>=20>=10>=5less than 5

Another examination of the over 30 HR group finds additonal support for the percetion that power is down. Here you see a dramatic drop in the over 40 HR club from 11 in 2006 to 9 in 2007 and 2005 to a mere 2 in 2008 and 5 in 2009. Given fantasy players focus on the elite players by category, one can easily see how the perception in a drop in HRs has occured.


A final reason for the fantasy players perception that HRs have fallen is zeitgist of the Steroid Era. With performance enhancing drugs having been banned, a perceived drop in HRs - anywhere a fantasy players looks for them - would naturally lead to the conclusion that HRs are down.

The three observation made help explain the perception that HRs are down across baseball. The overall data do not support the perception though. Act accordingly.

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