In my AL-only league, two teams just completed this transaction:
Team A trades $41 Johann Santana and $6 Kevin Youkilis to Team B for $5 JJ Putz, $12 Joe Crede and $7 Matt Clement.
This trade looks favorable to Team B. It acquires the best player (Santana) and two of the three best players amongst the five involved.
That said, the trade was made with specific categories involved.
And this analysis needs only be done from the side (Team A) that looks to have gotten the worst of the deal.
Team A has 1 point in Wins and 12 points in ERA and WHIP. His lead in ERA is 0.60! The one in WHIP is too close to be considered safe (0.048).
Team A also has 7 point in saves with 9 points being 5 saves away and 5 points being three away. 10 points in 11 saves away and not likely to be reached quickly.
Given, Santana cannot hurt Team A in Wins and the ERA lead lead seeming out of reach, Team A placed extra emphasis on the gain in Saves.
I would have focused on the loss in WHIP which can cancel any of those gains. While 1 point in wins can get no lower, Team A only trailed two point by a victory and three points by 4 wins - any of which Santana can be expected to provide.
On the hitting side, Joe Crede is having a tremendous year 14/54/.304, but Youkilis is having a very good one, too, - 9/38/.318.
But Youkilis .408 OBP augers well for maintaining that production while Crede's .338 does not. Neither does Crede's history of back troubles.
Matt Clement? Fairly worthless right now and a non-factor unless Team A considers him a valuable piece versus just a throw-in one negotiates for on principle. (Like getting two free oil changes when you buy a car.)
Even as I wanted to justify the deal for Team A, this horse was lead to Lake Team B Wins.
Thursday, June 29, 2006
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