Friday, May 19, 2006

Scott Kazmir

He looks to have arrived a a bonafide major leaguer pitcher.

Unfortunately for 4X4, his WHIP, and team, keep him from an equivalent value.

He has pitched slightly better than he did last season but, with 25 starts to go, he can easily get back to the same levels as last season.

In real baseball, two things will launch him into discussions of top pitchers - his win totals, 6 so far after only 10 in 2005, and a high strikeout rate.

For Roto, though, other things must be considered.

While I would not be surprised to see Kazmir maintain his improvement in WHIP - a 1.38 isn't great but it is no longer a net negative, I do not see him maintaining a 66% win rate.

Given his team I don't even see a 50% one. What I do see is a possible 14 wins for a last place team. This means he'll win only 8 of his next 25 starts.

Given the hype building, he won't be worth it. In a trade, he may be worth acquiring if you can keep him for next season.

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