Al Draft Today

My Al-only 4X4 draft is this afternoon. After six months it is finally here.

Now I put all that thought and analysis to work.

A personal caution is I need to stay away from landing a team full of sleepers and prospects. Inevitably, some of those types of players do not pan out. If I can limit it to two pitchers and two hitters, I should maintain the proper balance needed to suceed - veterans and breakout nobodies.

Going in, saves are going to be more dear than usual. The only solid closer available is Mariano Rivera. After him, Todd Jones, Dan Miceli, and Keith Foulke make-up the remainder of obvious saves available, and I know Foulke is on the shakiest ground. That says a lot when one of the other closers is Dan Miceli! To make this a crazy situation is four teams have no closer at all. I'm think $45+ for Mariano and one of the other three going into the $20s!

Normally, fishing amongst the back-up closers/set-up men would provide some fruit, but every one of those who could be protected was protected at $5-$10 - Mike Timlin, Kyle Farnsworth, Justin Speier, Jon Papelbon, Neil Cotts, Cliff Politte, Juan Rincon, Fernando Cabrera, Rafael Betancourt, Mike MacDougal, Andy Sisco, Fernando Rodney, Justin Duchsherer, Scot Shields, Brendan Donnelly, Brian McCarthy, Francisco Liriano and Rafael Soriano.

In terms of personal strategy, I need to add two starting pitchers to be competitive in this league. I would then have 5 SP - Zito, Chen and Baker are my three keepers. This is tough for me because I normally punt pitching at the draft because I focus on entering with a closer and figure SP is too risky. This year I have alot of money to spend and there are some decent arms available who should be good enough to contribute Ws without mediocre ratios. Mark Buerhle is a favorite.

For hitting, I need SB. Carl Crawford and Chone Figgins are available, and I am setting aside $40+ to grab one. After those two, the next level of SB is Brian Roberts, Julio Lugo and Orlando Cabrera. Any of those at $30 is more ridiculous than Crawford or Figgins at $40.

A sleeper for SB is Baltimore's Luis Matos. Just matching last season's 17 swipes would make him a solid $10 in the AL.

3B and C are very deep this draft with 8 catchers and 9 3B available on loosely defined terms that allow Toby Hall and Jason Kendall to be considered good and Tony Batista and Mike Lowell to be so as 3B. I will likely spend $30-$40 to address a C and a 3B.

One factor on hitting I need to focus on besides SB is RBI. This means focusing on players hitting in the top of the order - generally in the 2-6 holes depending on position. Eric Chavez looks very good in this regard.

In the minors I have five picks and have almost settled on Brandon Wood at #1. He homered and doubled in his first game, and I anticipate John Sickels saying good things about him in his post today (which I hope is up prior to my departure.) I have four other picks and will focus on players who are close to being recalled next season with my final three picks.

When they do get called-up, I need to have space for them. Amongst Alex Gordon, Howie Kendrick, Andy Mrte and Craig Hansen, Wood seems least likely to be recalled, and he also has the highest ceiling right now. Instead of trying to forecast 2006 playing time versus ceiling, I am playing it safe and taking ceiling. Or differently phrased, I am taking the one who is most liked by those who evaluate propsects for a living.

I select #5 so one of those others will fall to me regardless.

This is my plan, and, with 5 hours until the draft, it is as solid as it can get.