Mitch Einertson

Mitch Einertson took the 2004 rookie league by storm straight out of high school – 24 HR and a .308/.413/.692 batting line. He did strikeout 70 times in 229 official ABs but the OBP and SLG more than outweighed that concern.

In 2005, he failed. His batting line plummeted from its 2004 sabremetrically-giddy heights to .234/.353/.352. The disappearance of his power was alarming and has likely resulted in Einertson’s removal as a prospect to watch.

However, a little deeper look at his 2005 year turns up some glimmers of hope. The difference in OBP and AVG actually increased from. 105 to .119. This indicates that his plate discipline did not erode.

The .234 AVG may also have been a reflection of bad luck as his contact rate increased from its 2003 levels – 69.2% to 72.1%. (Without access to Ron Shandler’s Fantasy Forecaster, I cannot go further into GB/LD/FB rates although I suspect a drop in the last two and an increase in the first one.)

With 355 ABs in 2005, the absolute number of strikeouts and walks would be expected to increase, and they did. However, both were very close to their proportional expectations – 56% more ABs lead to a nearly identical percentage increase in Ks (62.5%) and BBs (41.1%). (operational definition of “identical” = statistically significant)

The drop in SLG is inexplicable beyond the obvious he had many fewer HRs and fewer proportionate doubles. It is possible the FSL suppressed some of the power but the drop seems too extreme.

I have seen hints that there were personal issues involved but have been unable to turn-up anything that hints at the problems.

As 2006 arrived, “nothing” would aptly describe the expectations for Mitch Einertson. He is repeating the year in the low A Florida State League, and seems to be doing better.

His batting line has rebounded to .288/.317/.458 but the AVG/SLG differential is alarming. However, his contact rate has exploded to 86.4%. This could be a result of playing against slightly younger competition, but Einertson only just turned 20-yers-old.

His SLG has not reached the gaudy levels attained in 2004 but rebounding off the back-up middle infielder-esque levels of 2005 is encouraging.

The sample size is very small but the signs of a rebound are present.

None of this is important for the 2006 season and likely not the 2007 one. But 2008? That is still within the realm of possibility!