2006 NL Draft Recap

Wow! Draft inflation was out of control. I suspected that would be the case with the quality of players that left the NL for the AL and the lack of such to return to the NL. (First touched upon here.) However, I did not expect anything like the levels that occurred last night.

Only at the very, very end did players start consistently going for $1, and this only occurred because several teams filled their roster and still had a few dollars left over. I was one of them with $4 left over.

My strategy, congealed on the train ride home, was unique in my experience.

First, there were very few very good hitters available. (Pujols, Soriano, Abreu, Beltran, Rolen, Helton, Edmonds.) The next level included Marcus Giles, Edgar Renteria, Chipper Jones and 8 or nine OFers along the Jacques Jones line. Sean Casey was the third-best 1B available after Pujols and Helton.

2nd, there were five teams with more than $150 to spend and amongst those, one team had $186 and the other had $207. There were also two other teams with $134 and $138 to spend. With seven of the 12 teams having oodles of cash to spend, I projected every good hitter to be expensive.

3rd, there were many closers, and their back-ups, available, and the league has traditionally punted pitching in favor of hitting. Which was good because I had no closer.

With those three factors in mind, I concluded I would be shut out of any of the very good hitters unless I was willing to either a.) draft one of them and a closer and hope to fill my other 9 roster openings with $1-$3 fillers or b.) draft a closer and not worry about hitting as much.

I choose option b. With that first step, I recognized that I might be better trying to draft pitching to the near exclusion of hitting. After all, the league usually allows pitching to be slightly undervalued.

Also, with the best hitters excluded for likely acquistion, I decided I would target hitters I thought had a good chance to breakout on the upside with fortuitous events a la injuries, roster shake-ups, etc.

My pitching strategy coalesced around getting two closers and drafting four players I considered serious possibilites to have good-to-excellent seasons - Aaron Heilman, Chuck James, Brad Penny and David Bush.

Then inflation butt in. Because there were so few hitters to waste, I mean, spend money on, those extra dollars flowed into the pitching ranks. Amongst the crazies, Gregg Maddux $19, Tim Hudson $18. And my two starting pitching targets were effected, too. Brad Penny went for $20, and Dave Bush went for $16.

I had allocated $20 for them. No chance. However, I did get what i consider one of the relative starting pitching bargains in Jason Schmidt at $18. Those 10 strikeouts versus the Braves signaled he may be better than he was in last season's 2nd half.

Of course, Schmidt was only acquired because the first part of my pitching strategy needed adjusting almost immediately. I had set a target allocation of $35 to get two closers. Wagner went for $37, but that had been expected. I figured the remaining 5 or 6 would go in the $15-$20 range.

I landed Armando Benitez for $20. Based on news reports, I figured his knee and mechanics were his issue and not an elbow injury. This leap of faith is somewhat tough because I recoil every time I see San Fran trainer, Stan Conte, and injury update in the same paragraph. (see Robb Nen.)

With $15 still available, I saw Baez go off the board at $22. I adjusted and grabbed Schmidt for $18. $3 more than my allocated amount, but I figured to move some of the $10 I put aside for Aaron Heilman and Chuck James and some of the $20 allocated for Penny and Bush to cover it.

I smart on-the-fly adjustment in my mind at the time.

After those two, I sat out round after round because my pitchers and hitters were not coming up. This was the most difficult part of the draft, but I was disciplined because the players I targeted were not coming up, and I still wanted the pitchers so I needed to hold my cash.

Then the inflation never went away. Brad Penny came-up and went for $2o. Bobby Howry went for $7. Joey Devine $8. Todd Coffey $8. Finally, someone else threw out Aaron heilman, and I decided to spend some money. He went for $9. That was OK because Penny had blown the target allocation apart. I'd still have a chance at James for $1, but I wasn't so sure.

Dave Bush was still available but many teams had $30 or so to spend with only 5 or 6 roster openings. I thought he would be tough to land without having the most available cash, and I was right. Dave Bush went for $16, and I went after middle relievers with the Penny/Bush spots. Juan Cruz for $2 and Carlos Martinez for $1 were the consolation prizes. However, I still had one spot left open for James.

On hitting, I went a little crazy on Ronny Cedeno for my first one - $12. Yikes, but that was cheap for players with starting positions or near ones. Orlando Hudson went for $17. Bill Mueller for $15. Adrian Gonzlaez for the same. Tony Womack for $16. David Bell for $11. Tony Clark for $12. Javier Valentin for $9. Larry Bigbie for $8. Scott Hatteberg for $9. Chris Burke for $10. Steve Finley for $9. See, lots of inflation even at the end of the viable draftee list.

Despite that, I executed the hitting side to my satisfaction. I landed Craig Wilson ($9) and Freddie Sanchez (DL replacement) of the Pirates and Marlon Byrd ($1) with the Natspos. With the Chipper Jones injury from the previous day, Wilson Betemit ($6) was also taken. (And fortuitous occurence #1 greeted me this AM - Chipper on the 15-day DL.) My 2nd catcher was Miguel Olivo for $1.

Finally, with $9 remaining and one pitching slot left, I threw out Chuck James for $1. Someone went $2. I went $3. He went $4, and I countered with $5. He then said I wasn't going to be "Turnbowed" this draft and let me have James for $5. (Last year, I nominated Turnbow for $1 and the same team went $2. I was out of money and decided then to leave a few bucks on the table next time rather than be Turnbowed again.)