Bailing

As we round towards Memorial Day weekend, the bailing will begin. The last or 2nd to last place team will announce first.

In less than a week, the first balance-shifting trade will occur. The balance shift occurs not at the bottom of the standings but towards the top where the bail recipient will have eradicated at least one team flaw whether it is a draftday mistake (getting JJ Hardy instead of Bill Hall), a season-ending injury (Mark Loretta) or spending money on almost any NL closer!

For those still competitng, this first trade will alter any projections for the team that receives the largess. Say the team in 1st place has ridden Pedro, Dontrelle Willis, Brandon Webb, Brandon Lyon in pitching and Bobby Abreu and a bunch of Abraham Nunez types (nothings who have hit multiple HRs this year with a couple SBs).

Your analysis of this team is it has crested and is bound to crash. But wait! This team flips a couple of Abraham Nunezs and Brandon Webb for a two decent hitters and a good SP who are running out of time.

All of a sudden the inevitable crash has been forestalled and a team that had been on top due to an unusual confluence of good breaks and extraordinary starts is now much more solid going forward.

And you begin to panic while you await the next competitive balance earthquake and/or try ot get yours before someone else.

Over the next several days I will examine further bailing.