Friday, May 20, 2005

Myers for Patterson

This is a very tough decision as Brett Myers is pitching so far above anything he's done in the past (1.88 ERA 0.93 WHIP 1.8BB/9 and 1.14K/IP). His prior walk rate was 3.0/9 and K-rate was 0.66/IP.

Corey Patterson carries a hefty value due to his 20+ HR and 30+ SB.

I have no questions about Patterson's ability to maintian that performance this season as he is currently not far from that now.

I can't get myself to imbue the same confidence in Myers. Other than his professional debut in 1999 where he struck out 30 in 27 innings in the GCL, he has never average more than one K per inning. His k-rate was actually declining every single year since it peaked in 2001 at 0.83/IP (with the caveat that the 2002 MLB debut not be used.)

To examine his walk rate, in the minor leagues in was 2.57 and in the majors it was 3.41. These too seem so far out of line with what he has done previously.

Add-in Citizens Bank generousity to hitters, and I cannot conclude Myers will maintain his absolutely, no-doubt-about-it phenomonal 2005 season at the pace he is on, and therefore, would not deal a power/speed player like Patterson for him.

If I owned Myers I would defintely try to deal him for a Patterson-type in hopes the other owner does not read this site.

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