Selling High and Buying Low

This is the time of year when teams in first place need to trade those players who have out-performed and to acquire those players who have under-performed.

The season is old enough for teams to think their results are likely to be due to more than hot starts or luck. However, that is not necessarily the case. Is Brian Roberts really going to go 40/50? Is Eric Chavez really going to hit .190?

"No" is the answer in both cases, but try to trade one for the other and the Roberts owner would think you were crazy. But this is precisely what the Roberts owner should be trying to do.

With Roberts SB, his owner can likely get a little more than Chavez right now. But can he do it?

I say that he cannot, and it is for this reason - the inability to sell high- that the standings right now are no more indicative of the final ones than the ones in the first week.

What can alter this belief would be for the teams at the top of the standings to shrewdly acquire those players doing poorly right now - almost any Oakland A's hitter, Jim Thome, Lance Berkman and such- for those players like Brian Roberts and Dontrelle Willis.

As you can see, I do not advocate dealing hot-performing crappy players such as Shawn Estes or Damon Hollins, but players who other teams can see continuing the great seasons.