Tuesday, March 21, 2006

To the AL via trade or free agency:

Hitters: Wily Mo Pena, Mike Lowell, Alex Gonzalez, Mark Loretta, Corey Patterson, Ramon Hernandez, Lyle Overbay, Troy Glaus, Jim Thome, Tony Batista, Luis Castillo, Jason Michaels, Andy Marte, Reggie Sanders, Milton Bradley, Brad Wilkerson

Pitchers: Kyle Farnsworth, Josh Beckett, Kris Benson, AJ Burnett, Javy Vasquez, Esteban Loaiza, Jeff Weaver, Adam Eaton, Todd Jones

To the NL via trade or free agency:

Hitters: Edgar Renteria, Aaron Rowand, Hanley Ramirez, Alphonso Soriano, Jacques Jones, Cory Koskie, Tony Womack, Chris Young, Bill Mueller

Pitchers: Tom Gordon, Dave Bush, Bronson Arroyo, Chris Young, Danys Baez


It is clear the AL added more impact bats and arms than the NL.

This should serve to make NL draft prices higher (decreased supply) and AL ones lower (increased supply).

This is an important fact to keep in mind in the first round of the draft when the highest priced players are being bid upon.

In the AL, one can sit back and be confident that there will be good bargains later in the draft. While letting Glaus or Chavez go at $35 won't feel good, you will improve later in the draft when you get Adrian Beltre for $24 or Joe Crede for $11.

In the NL, one cannot sit back and feel the same. When the $17 players are going for $25 and $25 are going for $30+, you will feel good about going $41 on Todd Helton early or $39 on Carlos Beltran. Or when you go $19 on Jeremy Hermida, you will feel much better than having gone $17 on Bill Mueller.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I'm interested to see if your theory plays out. In past years, when the AL has loaded up with more hitters, the expected overall drop in values didn't play out in our AL-only league. But maybe its the combined forces of bigger names in both hitting and pitching that will tap out the market... If it works I'll ask you about real estate next!
PS - nice blog, by the way!